As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known. We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here. In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.
Angels (6)
- Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
- Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
- Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
- Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
- Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
- Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM
Astros (8)
- Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
- Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
- Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
- Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
- Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
- Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
- Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM
Athletics (15)
- Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
- Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
- Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
- Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
- Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
- Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
- Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
- Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
- Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
- Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
- Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
- Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
- Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
- A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
- Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K
Blue Jays (9)
- Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
- Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
- Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
- Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
- Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
- Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
- Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
- Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
- Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K
Braves (5)
- Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
- Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
- Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
- Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K
Brewers (3)
- Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
- Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
- Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM
Cardinals (7)
- Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
- Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
- Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
- Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
- Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
- Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
- Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM
Cubs (8)
- Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
- Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
- Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
- Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
- Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
- Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
- Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
- Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
- Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
- Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
- Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
- Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
- Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
- Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
- A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM
Dodgers (9)
- A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
- Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
- Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
- Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
- Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
- Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
- Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
- Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
- Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K
Giants (4)
- Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
- Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
- Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
- George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM
Indians (7)
- Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
- Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
- Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
- Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
- Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
- Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K
Mariners (3)
- Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
- Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
- Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
- Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*
Marlins (9)
- Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
- Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
- David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
- Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
- Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
- A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
- Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
- Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
- Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
- Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM
Mets (8)
- Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
- Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
- Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
- Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
- Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
- Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
- Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
- Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K
Nationals (9)
- Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
- Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
- Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
- Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
- Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
- Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
- Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
- Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM
Orioles (10)
- Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
- Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
- Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
- Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
- Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
- Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
- Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
- Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
- Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
- Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
- David Lough (2.149) – $800K
Padres (8)
- Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
- Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
- Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection; has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
- Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
- Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
- Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
- Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
- Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM
Phillies (4)
- Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
- Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
- Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
- Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM
Pirates (9)
- Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
- Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
- Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
- Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
- Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
- Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
- Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
- Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
- Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM
Rangers (10)
- Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
- Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
- Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
- Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
- Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
- Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
- Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
- Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
- Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K
Rays (11)
- Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
- Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
- Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
- Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
- Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
- Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
- J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
- Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
- Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
- Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
- Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM
Red Sox (5)
- Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
- Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
- Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
- Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
- Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K
Reds (4)
- Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
- Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
- Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
- J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM
Rockies (9)
- John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
- Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
- Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
- Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
- DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
- Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
- Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
- Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
- Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM
Royals (8)
- Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
- Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
- Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
- Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
- Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
- Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
- Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
- Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM
Tigers (5)
- Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
- Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
- J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
- Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
- Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM
Twins (6)
- Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
- Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
- Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
- Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
- Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
- Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM
White Sox (5)
- Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
- Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
- Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
- Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
- Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
- Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K
Yankees (7)
- Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
- Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
- Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
- Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
- Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
- Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM
*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.




