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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2016

By Matt Swartz and Tim Dierkes | October 6, 2015 at 9:03pm CDT

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work.  You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet!  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known.  We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here.  In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.

Angels (6)

  • Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
  • Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
  • Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
  • Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
  • Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
  • Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM

Astros (8)

  • Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
  • Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
  • Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
  • Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
  • Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
  • Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
  • Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM

Athletics (15)

  • Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
  • Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
  • Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
  • Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
  • Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
  • Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
  • Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
  • Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
  • Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
  • Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
  • Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
  • Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
  • Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
  • A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
  • Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K

Blue Jays (9)

  • Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
  • Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
  • Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
  • Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
  • Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
  • Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
  • Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
  • Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
  • Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K

Braves (5)

  • Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
  • Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
  • Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K

Brewers (3)

  • Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
  • Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
  • Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM

Cardinals (7)

  • Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
  • Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
  • Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
  • Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
  • Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
  • Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
  • Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM

Cubs (8)

  • Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
  • Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
  • Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
  • Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
  • Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
  • Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

Diamondbacks (8)

  • Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
  • Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
  • Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
  • Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
  • Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
  • Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
  • Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
  • A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM

Dodgers (9)

  • A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
  • Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
  • Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
  • Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
  • Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
  • Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
  • Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
  • Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
  • Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K

Giants (4)

  • Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
  • Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
  • Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
  • George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM

Indians (7)

  • Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
  • Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
  • Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
  • Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
  • Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
  • Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K

Mariners (3)

  • Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
  • Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
  • Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
  • Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*

Marlins (9)

  • Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
  • Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
  • David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
  • Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
  • A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
  • Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
  • Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
  • Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM

Mets (8)

  • Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
  • Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
  • Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
  • Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
  • Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
  • Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K

Nationals (9)

  • Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
  • Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
  • Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
  • Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
  • Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
  • Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
  • Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
  • Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM

Orioles (10)

  • Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
  • Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
  • Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
  • Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
  • Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
  • Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
  • Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
  • Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
  • Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
  • Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
  • David Lough (2.149) – $800K

Padres (8)

  • Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
  • Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
  • Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection;  has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
  • Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
  • Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
  • Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
  • Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
  • Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM

Phillies (4)

  • Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
  • Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
  • Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
  • Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM

Pirates (9)

  • Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
  • Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
  • Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
  • Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
  • Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
  • Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
  • Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
  • Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
  • Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM

Rangers (10)

  • Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
  • Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
  • Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
  • Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
  • Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
  • Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
  • Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
  • Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
  • Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K

Rays (11)

  • Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
  • Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
  • Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
  • Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
  • Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
  • Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
  • J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
  • Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
  • Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
  • Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
  • Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM

Red Sox (5)

  • Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
  • Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
  • Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
  • Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
  • Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K

Reds (4)

  • Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
  • Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
  • Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
  • J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM

Rockies (9)

  • John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
  • Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
  • Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
  • Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
  • DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
  • Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
  • Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
  • Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM

Royals (8)

  • Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
  • Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
  • Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
  • Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
  • Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
  • Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
  • Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
  • Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM

Tigers (5)

  • Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
  • Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
  • J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
  • Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
  • Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

  • Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
  • Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
  • Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
  • Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
  • Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
  • Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM

White Sox (5)

  • Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
  • Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
  • Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
  • Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
  • Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
  • Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K

Yankees (7)

  • Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
  • Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
  • Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
  • Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
  • Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
  • Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
  • Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM

*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.

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MLB Trade Rumors Has A New Look

By Tim Dierkes | October 5, 2015 at 2:21pm CDT

Did you know it’s been five years since we changed the look of the desktop version of MLB Trade Rumors?  As the site approaches its ten-year anniversary, we decided it’s time for something new.  Thousands of you have already previewed this new design, and the response was positive.

Most of the changes we’ve made apply to the desktop and tablet versions of MLBTR:

  • More of an open, contemporary look
  • New scroller up top with major headlines
  • Arrows on the sides to easily navigate to our sites Hoops Rumors and Pro Football Rumors
  • Search box is in a more prominent place; we’re working to improve the accuracy of its results
  • Restructured navigation bar (Home, Teams, About, etc.)
  • Load More Posts button at the bottom of the site, rather than Page 2, Page 3, etc.
  • Sidebar: top/recent stories combined into one place with tabs
  • For tablets, we’ve moved the sidebar stuff below the articles when you’re in portrait mode

What hasn’t changed, of course, is the core of the site.  We’re still focused on bringing you the news and rumors as quickly as possible and providing context for all the information.  And we’re sticking with one old-school quirk in our desktop design: full text of the latest articles, right on the homepage.

Please let us know your thoughts in the comments of this post, or contact us here or on Twitter.  Thanks for reading MLB Trade Rumors.

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Exclusive Free Articles From MLBTR

By Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2015 at 11:20am CDT

The comments on my 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings got me thinking: where might Chris Davis sign this winter?  So, I went team-by-team to find the plausible fits in this week’s newsletter.  Sign up below now, and you’ll get the article later today! There are no strings attached with the MLBTR Newsletter; just a free article every week. Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link to sign up.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Tim Dierkes | September 15, 2015 at 12:20pm CDT

Click here to read today’s impromptu hot stove chat with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.  We tested new chat software today; please let us know your thoughts in the comments of this post.

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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2015 at 10:50am CDT

Welcome to the last in-season addition of our 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  We’ve been moving these pieces around since February, and the list continues to change with several players surging.

These rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  David Price.  Even back in February, $200MM (sans deferred money) was getting tossed around in regard to Price.  The 30-year-old was traded to the Blue Jays on July 30th and his risen to the occasion, somehow pitching even better for his new team.  The goal is now clear: exceed the seven-year, $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers in January 2014.  That contract includes an opt-out that could allow Kershaw to begin a new contract with his age 31 campaign.  Since Price is already 30, agent Bo McKinnis may not need to push for such a clause.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward’s strong season has continued since we last checked in on August 6th.  Heyward gets on base, shows a touch of pop, and plays strong defense.  It’s a valuable package.  Since he turned 26 just last month, Heyward’s will be the rare free agent contract that includes mostly prime-age seasons.  An eight-year deal would only take him through his age 33 season.  As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted recently, an opt-out clause makes sense here.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton hit .266/.382/.539 in 152 plate appearances since we last checked in, putting his oblique and thumb injuries behind him.  Upton is one player where an opt-out clause seems especially valuable, because it still seems like he could take his game to another level.  He’s a 28-home run guy who could become a 35-40 type, and would benefit from the chance to re-enter the market after three seasons.  He could get a bigger deal at that point, since he recently turned 28.  That could work out for the team too — sign him to an eight-year deal this winter but only have to pay for age 28-30.

Jul 24, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Chris Davis (19) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports4.  Chris Davis.  Davis can’t be contained, with 14 home runs in 35 games since we last checked in.  He has 42 in all.  Davis is five months younger than Yoenis Cespedes, and I’m starting to think he has slightly more earning power.  It’s an interesting contrast.  Davis seems a better bet for additional 35+ homer seasons, yet his rough 2014 season is hard to completely write off.  Cespedes brings more defensive value, though his strong marks this year are out of the ordinary.  Davis strikes out more, but walks more too.  Both players will be vying for seven-year contracts with mid-$20MM salaries.

5.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes didn’t even crack my top ten in February, and now he’s ascended all the way up to fifth.  Even when the Tigers traded Cespedes to the Mets on July 31st, he didn’t seem a good bet to finish with 30 home runs.  Then he went and smacked 16 in 40 games for the Mets, and he now has an outside shot at 40 bombs.  Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM deal from December 2013 is a good benchmark for Cespedes, who should get more.  Cespedes’ contract was modified in September to allow the Mets to have a shot at retaining him.

6.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke ranked eighth on this list in February, when a five-year deal in the low-$100MM range seemed reasonable.  Sitting on an MLB-best 1.61 ERA through 29 starts, it’s time to seriously consider a six-year contract.  That’s a scary proposition, since he’s already 31, but the sixth year maximizes his total even if he backs off on the average annual value.  Greinke should be able to get past the six-year, $155MM contract signed by Jon Lester last winter.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon returned from an eight-week layoff on September 1st, having recovered from a groin injury.  He says he feels 100%, and is now serving as the Royals’ leadoff hitter.  Since he turns 32 in February, a six-year deal seems like the limit.  I wonder if he can push his average annual value up to $25MM, netting $150MM in total.

8.  Johnny Cueto.  In our May power rankings, I gave consideration to putting Cueto ahead of Price, second overall.  A July 26th trade from the Reds to the Royals seemed beneficial to Cueto, who became ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Cueto began his Royals stint with a 1.80 ERA over 30 innings, but since then, the wheels have come off.  He’s allowed 28 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings, including 48 hits of which eight left the park.  His ERA has risen a full run in that time, from 2.46 to 3.47.  Perhaps something is wrong physically; you may recall Cueto went 13 days between starts this summer due to a sore elbow.

This story isn’t complete yet.  Cueto has three regular season starts left, and the Royals are going to the Division Series.  Still, Cueto’s last five starts probably took a seven-year contract off the table, and now I’m wondering whether he’ll match Lester.

9.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has a 2.66 ERA in seven starts since we last checked in, in what’s become another typically strong season from the 29-year-old righty.  He seems on track to become the first Tommy John survivor to reach $100MM, and may actually pass $130MM on a six-year deal.

10.  Mike Leake.  Leake’s hold on this spot has grown more tenuous, as the righty spent a few weeks on the DL with a hamstring injury.  Leake still has a shot at a five-year deal, as he doesn’t turn 28 until November.

Ian Desmond’s season has been all over the map: he was decent in May, very good in August, and lousy otherwise.  There’s no real trend except that it’s his worst season since 2011 despite 17 home runs and counting.  I imagine some kind of four-year deal is in order, but this one is hard to peg.

Ben Zobrist is finishing strong, hitting .323/.398/.516 since joining the Royals in a July 28th trade.  Since he turns 35 in May, a four-year deal will be the limit.  Even that will be risky – it’s not like Victor Martinez’s contract is looking good.

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Exclusive Free Articles From MLBTR

By Tim Dierkes | August 19, 2015 at 10:45am CDT

If you’re like us, you’re already thinking ahead to this winter’s free agent class.  In this week’s newsletter, I examine three players who might surprise you with $100MM contracts this winter.  Sign up below now, and you’ll get the article later today!  There are no strings attached with the MLBTR Newsletter; just a free article every week. Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link to sign up.

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Astros Acquire Oliver Perez

By charliewilmoth and Tim Dierkes | August 8, 2015 at 8:56am CDT

The Astros announced they acquired veteran lefty reliever Oliver Perez from the Diamondbacks for minor league southpaw Junior Garcia.  Houston moved righty Sam Deduno to the 60-day DL to open a spot for Perez, while Arizona announced that it will select the contract of lefty Keith Hessler to take Perez’s place on its active roster.

USATSI_8562304_154513410_lowresPerez, 34 next week, has a 3.10 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, and 38.9% groundball rate in 29 innings for Arizona this year.  This year he’s faced an even number of lefty and righty hitters and has been more effective against left-handed batters, as you would expect.  Perez joins Tony Sipp as another lefty option out of Houston’s bullpen, which ranks second in the American League with a 2.70 ERA.  The Astros had designated lefty reliever Joe Thatcher for assignment on July 21st, though he remained in the organization on a minor league deal.

Perez spent his first nine seasons in the Majors as a starter for the Padres, Pirates, and Mets before beginning a bit of a career renaissance as a reliever for the Mariners.  He signed a two-year free agent deal with the Diamondbacks in March 2014 and will be a free agent after the season.

Garcia, 19, signed with the Astros out of the Dominican Republic for $200K late in 2012. He mostly pitched in the Gulf Coast League in 2014 and got good results, although he posted a 3.9 BB/9 for the season. He’s improved upon that mark in 2015 while pitching in the Appalachian League and the NY-Penn League, posting an 0.96 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. He’s so far from the Majors, though, that parsing his statistics probably misses the point. He’ll provide the Diamondbacks’ system with a bit of left-handed pitching depth and upside.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | August 6, 2015 at 11:16am CDT

The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, and many players’ free agent prospects were affected.  So far, the following free agents are among those no longer eligible for a qualifying offer due to a trade: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Gerardo Parra, and Dan Haren.  Yoenis Cespedes was already ineligible for a QO.

As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  David Price.  Price landed with the Blue Jays last week in a blockbuster trade, and has ascended to the top spot in these rankings.  His 2.45 ERA ranks fourth in the American League, and agent Bo McKinnis will have a case to exceed Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM deal from last offseason.  The present-day value of that deal was reported to be under $192MM due to deferred money.  Price represents a true ace at the top of his game, entering his age 30 season.  He might be the only free agent to top $200MM this winter.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward’s last 1500 plate appearances have established that he’s good for about 15 home runs per year.  He adds value in a lot of different ways, though, and a more analytical team might be more inclined to appreciate and pay for that.  While he might not be better than all the players listed below him, keep in mind Heyward turns 26 years old on Sunday.  Because of his age, Heyward is the player on this list with the best shot at an eight-year contract, which could still push him into the $180MM range.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton is the other free agent outfielder who figures to command a premium partly because of his youth.  Still, he’s hitting .189/.275/.311 since June, and he will require draft pick forfeiture unless the Padres trade him this month.  Upton has been hampered by oblique and thumb injuries since July 19th, and his contract year has not gone as planned.  He still may approach 30 home runs, though, and may be able to get a seven-year deal.

4.  Johnny Cueto.  As expected, Cueto was traded, and now he’ll try to lead the Royals to a championship.  Cueto’s ace-level talent is undeniable, but with a few blips on his health record, can he push into seven-year deal territory?  A seventh year could result in Cueto getting this winter’s second-biggest contract.  A strong finish will go a long way.

5.  Zack Greinke.  Since we last checked in on June 25th, Greinke has given up four earned runs.  He leads all of baseball with a 1.41 ERA, and no one else is under 2.00.  Greinke’s timing is fantastic, and even though he turns 32 in October, a six-year deal is looking more and more plausible.  Opting out of the three years and $71MM remaining on his Dodgers contract seems a mere formality.

6.  Yoenis Cespedes.  The Mets made a trade deadline splash by acquiring Cespedes.  He may threaten his career-high of 26 home runs, and he turns 30 in October.  With Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, there is precedent for Cespedes to get a seven-year deal.  Though he’s known for his power, Cespedes’ agent could try to push him as an elite defender as well based on his metrics this year.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon went down on July 8th with a groin injury, but he’s on the road to recovery.  I don’t believe the injury will affect his value much.  However, as a player who turns 32 in February, he seems limited to a six-year deal.  Given his strong on-base percentage and defense, there will be teams with Gordon atop their free agent outfielder rankings.

8.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has been solid, with a 3.54 ERA in 22 starts.  He’s not a big strikeout guy, and for the first time it looks like he’ll allow more than a hit per inning in a full season.  He’ll still be a great addition for a team with a strong defense.  The question is whether a team will commit a sixth year.

9.  Chris Davis.  Davis has bounced back from 2014 and has a reasonable shot at hitting 40 home runs this year.  Davis has 28 home runs now, with Upton, Cespedes, and Marlon Byrd next among free agents at 18.  Davis isn’t showing a platoon split in 2015, and he doesn’t turn 30 until March.  He’s again starting to look like a player who could exceed $100MM.

10.  Mike Leake.  Leake is a new entrant on this list.  Just 28 in November, Leake has a 2.61 ERA since June.  With the trade to the Giants, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Leake is a durable, young mid-rotation arm, and I’m starting to wonder if he can snag a five-year deal in free agency.  For now, his durability holds off Scott Kazmir in terms of earning power.

Kazmir leads the American League in ERA right now, and won’t be getting a qualifying offer.  The southpaw, 32 in January, could find his way into our top ten if his success continues and his health holds up.  Still, it’s hard to crack the list without an expectation of a five-year deal, and I can’t picture that for Kazmir right now.

Jeff Samardzija, once seen as the list’s most likely trade candidate, has fallen out of our top ten.  His results continue to be middling for the White Sox, and now a qualifying offer seems likely.  Shark remains a durable, quality arm, but he might not be a lock for five years.

Nationals’ shortstop Ian Desmond also drops off the list.  His struggles have continued, and he may prefer to try to rebuild value with a one-year deal.  Those haven’t been en vogue lately, but can you picture any team giving Desmond four-plus years at a decent salary?

Other impending free agents to watch include Matt Wieters, Ben Zobrist, Yovani Gallardo, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mat Latos.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Old MLBTR Layout Available On Mobile Devices

By Tim Dierkes | August 3, 2015 at 10:56pm CDT

Back in April, we launched a new mobile version of MLBTR.  The change to mobile-friendly was made to improve load time and user experience, and also because Google basically required it.

In looking at your survey responses, I noticed that some readers preferred the old desktop-style, full post MLBTR format on their mobile devices.  Fortunately, we have a Desktop View button that brings back the old layout.  Just go to the MLBTradeRumors.com homepage on your mobile device, scroll all the way to the bottom, and tap the button that says Desktop:

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Your preference should be remembered the next time you visit.

(Side note: if you occasionally get the mobile version of MLBTR on a desktop computer, that’s a bug.  Please contact us if that happens).

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Red Sox Acquire Ryan Cook

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2015 at 3:19pm CDT

The Red Sox acquired reliever Ryan Cook from the Athletics, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  The A’s will receive a player to be named later, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.

Cook, 28, has pitched in the Majors for parts of five seasons with solid overall numbers.  Acquired by the A’s from the D’Backs in the December 2011 Trevor Cahill trade, Cook made the All-Star team in 2012 and saved 14 games.  However, he missed time with a shoulder injury and forearm strain last year, and was optioned to Triple-A out of spring training.  That’s where he’s spent most of this season, compiling a 4.05 ERA in 33 1/3 innings.  The Red Sox will potentially control Cook through 2018 as an arbitration eligible player.

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