Free Agent Profile: Matt Wieters
Once the game’s most-hyped prospect, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters has put in six years of Major League service with the Orioles. After five-plus years as a very good, durable backstop, Wieters missed a year due to Tommy John surgery and played in 75 games this season.
Strengths/Pros
Wieters is an above average hitter for a catcher. In 2015, the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 with a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 85. Wieters hit .267/.319/.422 with a wRC+ of 100. He displayed a league average bat, even though catchers generally hit significantly worse. He has shown good pop, leading all catchers with 67 home runs from 2011-13. Wieters made the All-Star team twice in that span, and again in 2014 after a 26-game hot start to that season.
Defensively, Wieters has been among the game’s best at preventing stolen bases. The stat Stolen Base Runs Saved credits catchers for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting to steal in the first place, and Wieters led all of baseball from 2011-13. The simpler version of this is caught stealing percentage, and Wieters was among the top four qualified catchers in each of 2011-13 seasons. Wieters has also been one of baseball’s best at blocking pitches. He won Gold Glove awards in 2011 and ’12.
As with Justin Upton, it feels like Wieters may not have reached his ceiling. The Orioles drafted Wieters fifth overall in 2007, and his 2009 big league debut was highly anticipated. In 2008, Baseball America wrote that Wieters had “the makings of a legitimate star,” a switch-hitter with plus bat speed, good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and excellent defense including plus-plus arm strength. He doesn’t turn 30 until May, and is easily the best free agent catcher.
Weaknesses/Cons
From 2011-13, Wieters caught 3,539 2/3 innings, the most in baseball. The ability to catch more than 140 games per season would be considered a huge positive, but as Wieters heads into free agency, we have to question how many innings behind the plate he can handle for the next several years. Wieters’ 2014 season ended on May 10th with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year. Though he was at one point on track to be ready for Opening Day, Wieters experienced elbow tendinitis in March and started the year on the DL. His season debut came on June 5th.
From the day of Wieters’ season debut, he started at catcher for 55 of the team’s 109 games. He battled a hamstring strain in August and a wrist injury in September. Still, there was no point this season where Wieters was used like a regular catcher by the Orioles. As Mark Brown of Camden Chat pointed out, he only caught on consecutive days four times this year. He’s not a good enough hitter for significant time at DH or first base to be appealing as part of a long-term contract, as it was with Brian McCann. In a given year, anywhere from 11-18 catchers get at least 900 innings behind the dish, and a team giving a multiyear pact to Wieters will need confidence he can do that.
Exploring the question of Wieters’ ability to stay behind the plate long-term, one must consider his massive size. He is literally the only regular catcher in baseball history who is 6’5″ and 230 pounds. Dropping the weight requirement to 220 gives a list of five total catchers (including Wieters himself). One of those is Joe Mauer, who was done catching by age 31 due to a lengthy history of concussions as well as back and leg injuries.
Looking at Wieters’ pitch framing data at StatCorner, he’s below average at getting pitches outside of the zone called strikes for his pitchers. The stat is called oStr%, and Wieters was the worst in baseball this year among those with a sample of 4,000 or more pitches. He was below average at this key framing skill from 2012-14 as well. Also, it’s unclear whether Wieters’ once-vaunted arm is as effective at preventing stolen bases. He threw out 30.8% of attempted thieves this year, which would have ranked eighth among qualifiers.
I believe Wieters will receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick. This could present an issue for a team like the Mariners, who probably wouldn’t want to give Wieters a decent-sized contract and also forfeit the 11th overall draft pick.
Personal
Wieters was born in Charleston, South Carolina and resides in Sarasota, Florida with his wife and son in the offseason. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Matt met his wife while attending Georgia Tech, and they also have a house in Atlanta. Will Graves of the Associated Press called him a “stoic cornerstone” for the Orioles in 2013, and more recently Connolly wrote, “Wieters’ leadership, steady influence and professionalism has been immeasurable.” Matt’s father, Richard, was a minor league pitcher for the Braves and White Sox, and as you’d expect, that sparked an interest in the game for Matt. He remained humble despite huge hype coming out of college and in his minor league career.
Market
Interest in Wieters will vary based on his contract demands and whether he receives a qualifying offer. I feel making a qualifying offer is a relatively easy “yes” for the Orioles, because he’d be worth $15.8MM on a one-year deal if he accepts. But why would a 29-year-old catcher, the best free agent at his position, decline his first chance at an open-market multiyear deal without fully exploring the market first? If all the multiyear offers are unacceptable, Wieters would probably be able to find a one-year deal worth close to $15.8MM in February or March. In March 2014, Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in reference to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, “Everybody talks about these players turning down these [one-year] qualifying offers like they’re village idiots. The reason is, they don’t want to be in the same position again next year. If I’m a good player, I’m going to take the prospect of free agency.”
If Wieters becomes a one-year deal guy late in the offseason, opportunistic teams will swoop in, and the door could re-open to the Orioles. Before then, Boras needs to find a team that loves Wieters’ pedigree, and feels he can be a bargain on a multiyear deal if an offseason of normal rest brings back the durability he once had. Clubs that could enter the market for a starting catcher include the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Angels, and Astros. Of those nine teams, the Braves, White Sox, and Rockies have protected first round picks. The White Sox have not historically been involved with a lot of Scott Boras’ free agents, but we can’t rule them out. The Braves are a legitimate match. Wieters grew up rooting for the Braves, his father pitched in their minor league system, and he starred at Georgia Tech. Plus, former Oriole mainstay Nick Markakis joined the Braves last winter, and the team appears to have soured on young catcher Christian Bethancourt. The Rockies have Nick Hundley in place for 2016, but could see Wieters as a long-term solution behind the plate.
The Nationals are an under-the-radar fit. They were not happy with Wilson Ramos this year, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, and the team’s management has a well-known strong relationship with Boras. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Rangers could take a look at Wieters, but only if he does not receive a qualifying offer. Surely Boras would appreciate the Orioles choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would be extremely risk-averse. The O’s didn’t make a qualifying offer to Markakis last winter, which Mark Brown of Camden Chat theorized may have been a gesture of loyalty from owner Peter Angelos.
Wieters has little competition on the free agent market, but he will be affected by the availability of Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Any of the above teams could make a deal for Lucroy and drop out of the Wieters market.
Expected Contract
I can picture Boras coming out of the gates seeking Russell Martin/Brian McCann money for Wieters, meaning five years and $82-85MM. I don’t think he’ll get there, but I’m predicting a four-year, $64MM deal, even with a qualifying offer.
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Free Agent Profile: Justin Upton
Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.
Strengths/Pros
Upton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling. According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old. After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short. Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002. Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.
Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27. Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame. Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball. Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO. Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come. Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.
I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders. Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders. He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11. Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.
As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28. The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus. Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.
Weaknesses/Cons
Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him. He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago. Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more. Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years. You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year. Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.
Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game. He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often. Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.
Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average. Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year. I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.
Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture. This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.
Personal
Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife. Justin grew up in a baseball family. His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02. Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez. It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19. Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013. He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior. Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.
Market
Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres. The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis. The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner. The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract. The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player. The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013. I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago. I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center. It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so. The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year. Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.
The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching. Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room. The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter. The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter. The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.
The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player. The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs. The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners. The Cubs also have more of a need at center field. The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.
Expected Contract
Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton. Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point. If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.
Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value. Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV. Something in the $20-22MM range could work. The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total. I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
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Free Agent Profile: Chris Davis
Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.
Strengths/Pros
Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game. He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013. He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball. Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012. A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching. From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers. Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.
Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime. Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter. Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.
Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman. He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years. He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.
Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes. Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014. He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.
Weaknesses/Cons
All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect. Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%. Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012. Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players. So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.
With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption. Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season. Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well. So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.
Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year. Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year. The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again? If so, how soon?” Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi. It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.
Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.
Personal
Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason. Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham. ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron. The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season. After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year. Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.
Market
The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid. The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits. There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play. A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch. Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position. Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.
Expected Contract
Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis. Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency. With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years. It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well. I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.
2015-16 MLB Free Agent Tracker Now Available
We’ve been obsessing over MLB free agency for nearly a decade here at MLB Trade Rumors, and this offseason is going to be a good one. The market features unprecedented starting pitching, with David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto. Sluggers Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton will be well-compensated, but Jason Heyward might top them all. Everything you need to track all of the signings can be found in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker for the 2015-16 offseason.
We’ll be updating the free agent tracker quickly after signings this winter, and you can filter by team, position, signing status, qualifying offer, contract years and amount, and handedness. Here’s the link again; let the roster-building begin!
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Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team
In the last year, five franchise contract records were toppled. How many will fall this offseason, with nine potential $100MM free agents? Here’s our list of the largest contracts for each of the 30 teams. If you’d like a trip down memory lane, each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.
- Angels: Albert Pujols – 10 years, $240MM (plus personal services contract valued at $6,841,811). Signed 12-8-11.
- Astros: Carlos Lee – 6 years, $100MM. Signed 11-24-06.
- Athletics: Eric Chavez – 6 years, $66MM. Signed 3-18-04.
- Blue Jays: Vernon Wells – 7 years, $126MM. Signed 12-18-06.
- Braves: Freddie Freeman – 8 years, $135MM. Signed 2-4-14.
- Brewers: Ryan Braun – 5 years, $105MM. Signed 4-21-11.
- Cardinals: Matt Holliday – 7 years, $120MM. Signed 1-7-10.
- Cubs: Jon Lester – 6 years, $155MM. Signed 12-13-14.
- Diamondbacks: Yasmany Tomas – 6 years, $68.5MM. Signed 11-26-14.
- Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw – 7 years, $215MM. Signed 1-17-14.
- Giants: Buster Posey – 9 years, $167MM (replaced existing 1 year, $8MM deal). Signed 3-29-13.
- Indians: Travis Hafner – 4 years, $57MM. Signed 7-11-07.
- Mariners: Robinson Cano – 10 years, $240MM. Signed 12-12-13.
- Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton – 13 years, $325MM. Signed 11-18-14.
- Mets: Juan Soto – 15 years, $765MM. Signed 12-8-24.
- Nationals: Max Scherzer – 7 years, $210MM (present-day value of $191.4MM at time of signing). Signed 1-21-15.
- Orioles: Adam Jones – 6 years, $85.5MM. Signed 5-25-12.
- Padres: James Shields – 4 years, $75MM. Signed 2-11-15.
- Phillies: Cole Hamels – 6 years, $144MM. Signed 7-25-12.
- Pirates: Jason Kendall – 6 years, $60MM. Signed 11-18-00.
- Rangers: Alex Rodriguez – 10 years, $252MM. Signed 12-12-00.
- Rays: Evan Longoria – 6 years, $100MM (team also exercised three club options from previous contract, which had a total value of $30MM). Signed 11-26-12.
- Red Sox: Manny Ramirez – 8 years, $160MM. Signed 12-13-00.
- Reds: Joey Votto – 10 years, $225MM. Signed 4-2-12.
- Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki – 10 years, $157.75MM (replaced three final years and option from previous contract). Signed 11-30-10.
- Royals: Gil Meche and Mike Sweeney – 5 years, $55MM. Meche signed 12-7-06 and Sweeney signed 3-29-02.
- Tigers: Miguel Cabrera – 8 years, $248MM. Signed 3-31-14.
- Twins: Joe Mauer – 8 years, $184MM. Signed 3-21-10.
- White Sox: Jose Abreu – 6 years, $68MM. Signed 10-29-13.
- Yankees: Alex Rodriguez – 10 years, $275MM. Signed 12-13-07.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
Another active offseason is in store for the White Sox, who find themselves with needs all over the diamond.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Abreu, 1B/DH: $44MM through 2019; may opt into arbitration after 2016
- David Robertson, RP: $36MM through 2018
- Melky Cabrera, LF: $29MM through 2017
- Adam Eaton, CF: $22.65MM through 2019; club options for 2020-21
- Jose Quintana, SP: $22.25MM through 2018; club options for 2019-20
- Chris Sale, SP: $22.15MM through 2017; club options for 2018-19
- John Danks, SP: $14.25MM through 2016
- Adam LaRoche, DH/1B: $13MM through 2016
- Zach Duke, RP: $10.5MM through 2017
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
- Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
- Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
- Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
- Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K
- Non-tender candidates: None
Contract Options
- Alexei Ramirez, SS: $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Free Agents
I have difficulty criticizing Rick Hahn’s active 2014-15 offseason, as I was a fan of his moves and thought the White Sox would contend this year. However, major acquisitions Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija bombed. To compound matters, position players Avisail Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Alexei Ramirez were brutal as well. It’s almost freakish that so many players performed below expectations in the same year, and the result was an 86-loss season. That came on the heels of 89 losses in 2014 and 99 losses in 2013.
This team seems in too deep to blow it all up, plus they’ve still got a strong, affordable core. Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and Eaton generated about 18 wins above replacement in 2015, and will cost less than $30MM in 2016. That remains a fantastic bargain, so GM Rick Hahn needs to take another shot at complementing his core with the right veterans.
So, what can be done about baseball’s worst collection of position players, by measure of wins above replacement? Starting behind the dish, WAR doesn’t do Tyler Flowers justice, as he’s worked himself into one of the game’s best pitch framers. With so much work to do elsewhere on the diamond, retaining Flowers is a reasonable starting point. Geovany Soto, a minor league signing who worked out well, could be re-signed early in the offseason.
I don’t see much point in trying to sell low on Cabrera. This might be grasping at straws, but he at least showed signs of life in July, and the best bet for 2016 is to hope he can bounce back and supply a two-win season at age 31. Given Cabrera’s consistently poor defense, the team would be improved by having him spend the majority of his time at designated hitter. Abreu’s defense at first base is no longer a liability, and the team could reduce his DH games to 25 or so.
This alignment leaves LaRoche without a starting spot on the 2016 club. Hahn can spend the next few months searching for an interesting bad contract swap or a salary dump partner, and then release him if those efforts come up empty.
Though Avisail Garcia is only 24, it’s time to try someone else in right field. Hahn says he’s still confident in Garcia, but the team can’t afford another replacement level season as they hope for him to develop. Garcia should be shopped to rebuilding clubs for something useful this winter, and sent to Triple-A if no good offers come in. 2015 rookie Trayce Thompson is actually three months older than Garcia, but could land a starting outfield spot on the strength of a strong 135-plate appearance debut. It’s a red flag, however, that Thompson hit .260/.304/.441 at Triple-A. In a perfect world, he’d be penciled in for a fourth outfielder role next year.
The White Sox should be in the market for at least one regular corner outfielder, as well as another player who can help out. The free agent market features four excellent options in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. All of them are projected to earn $100MM+ and more than $20MM per season. There are ways to fit such a signing into the team’s payroll, though it would require most of their available resources. There is a tier of outfielders below this group in the $8-15MM salary range, such as Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Steve Pearce, and Colby Rasmus. The trade market could include Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig. Ozuna would be particularly interesting for Chicago, as he’s yet to reach arbitration and will be earning less than $600K. He’ll be appealing to many teams, however.
So outfield is wide open and in need of multiple acquisitions. The infield picture isn’t much better for the White Sox. The big question is whether to choose a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez’s improved second half suggests he might have another two-win season left in him, but at age 34 picking up his option would definitely be a gamble. I think the $9MM net price is only slightly above Ramirez’s market value, but the White Sox might not want to tie up that much payroll space in him.
There’s the idea of using 2015 rookie Tyler Saladino as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, though that’s a poor win-now plan. The free agent market offers Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jimmy Rollins. Though Desmond himself had an off-year, I still see him pushing for a four or five-year contract, so I don’t see him as a fit for the Sox. A crosstown swap for Starlin Castro makes some sense. Castro, 26 in March, is signed through 2019 but could spend a few months at shortstop until Anderson is ready and then settle in as an above average second baseman. However, the Cubs may still like him for that role. In that case, Javier Baez could be a target.
Third base is another question mark for the White Sox. Saladino, Mike Olt, and Matt Davidson are in-house options. Juan Uribe could be a fun pickup on the free agent market, and David Freese will be out there as well. Trade options include Todd Frazier, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe, and Luis Valbuena. One sleeper could be Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who might be posted by the Lotte Giants.
This year, second base was handled mainly by Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson. It’s yet another potential area of upgrade, with Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick profiling as the top free agents and Brandon Phillips and Neil Walker looking like trade candidates. One free agent we haven’t mentioned yet is Ben Zobrist, who MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pegged as a potential White Sox target given their multitude of needs and the veteran’s versatility. However, the 34-year-old Zobrist could seek the Victor Martinez contract (four years, $68MM), which the White Sox were wise to avoid last winter. Murphy is a younger player who should cost less than Zobrist and can at least handle both second and third base, though he’d likely cost the White Sox their second round draft pick.
Once again, Sale and Quintana are locked in atop Chicago’s rotation, a duo that provided 415 strong innings this year. Danks’ contract makes him likely to hang around as the fifth starter. Rodon, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2014, joined the big league rotation on May 9th and recorded a 3.79 ERA in 23 starts. His control needs improvement, but it was a solid rookie effort. Samardzija isn’t likely to return, but making a qualifying offer is an easy decision. The Sox could replace Samardzija in-house with some combination of Erik Johnson, Frankie Montas, Tyler Danish, and Chris Beck.
Hahn probably won’t address all of his team’s needs through free agency, and it’s possible he’ll deal from the team’s pitching depth to acquire a position player. Assuming Sale remains off-limits, Quintana will be a popular target for other teams. Only a handful of position players would justify surrendering five affordable years of control of Quintana, Puig among them. I think Hahn is more likely to deal from his stash of unproven but mostly MLB-ready arms. It’s possible the team could add a low-level veteran starting pitcher in free agency if they compromise their rotation depth.
Hahn’s retooled bullpen was above average in 2015. There’s reason for further optimism in 2016. Robertson is better than his 3.41 ERA, and the Sox will enjoy a full season from Nate Jones. I imagine they’ll try to re-sign Albers, who came on a minor league deal and had a quality season despite missing three months in the middle with a broken finger.
Earlier this month, Hahn told reporters the team will be retaining Robin Ventura as manager for 2016. Given the way Ventura’s last three seasons have gone, however, he will likely be on a short leash entering the new season. Before then, expect plenty of offseason action for the White Sox, who have a laundry list of needs to address if they are to return to contention in 2016.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2016
As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known. We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here. In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.
Angels (6)
- Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
- Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
- Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
- Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
- Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
- Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM
Astros (8)
- Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
- Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
- Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
- Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
- Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
- Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
- Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM
Athletics (15)
- Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
- Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
- Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
- Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
- Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
- Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
- Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
- Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
- Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
- Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
- Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
- Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
- Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
- A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
- Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K
Blue Jays (9)
- Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
- Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
- Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
- Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
- Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
- Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
- Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
- Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
- Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K
Braves (5)
- Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
- Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
- Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
- Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K
Brewers (3)
- Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
- Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
- Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM
Cardinals (7)
- Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
- Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
- Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
- Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
- Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
- Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
- Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM
Cubs (8)
- Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
- Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
- Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
- Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
- Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
- Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
- Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
- Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
- Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
- Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
- Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
- Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
- Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
- Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
- A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM
Dodgers (9)
- A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
- Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
- Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
- Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
- Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
- Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
- Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
- Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
- Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K
Giants (4)
- Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
- Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
- Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
- George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM
Indians (7)
- Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
- Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
- Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
- Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
- Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
- Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K
Mariners (3)
- Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
- Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
- Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
- Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*
Marlins (9)
- Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
- Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
- David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
- Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
- Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
- A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
- Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
- Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
- Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
- Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM
Mets (8)
- Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
- Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
- Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
- Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
- Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
- Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
- Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
- Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K
Nationals (9)
- Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
- Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
- Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
- Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
- Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
- Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
- Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
- Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM
Orioles (10)
- Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
- Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
- Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
- Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
- Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
- Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
- Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
- Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
- Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
- Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
- David Lough (2.149) – $800K
Padres (8)
- Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
- Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
- Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection; has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
- Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
- Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
- Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
- Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
- Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM
Phillies (4)
- Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
- Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
- Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
- Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM
Pirates (9)
- Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
- Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
- Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
- Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
- Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
- Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
- Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
- Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
- Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM
Rangers (10)
- Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
- Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
- Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
- Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
- Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
- Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
- Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
- Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
- Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K
Rays (11)
- Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
- Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
- Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
- Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
- Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
- Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
- J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
- Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
- Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
- Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
- Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM
Red Sox (5)
- Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
- Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
- Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
- Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
- Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K
Reds (4)
- Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
- Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
- Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
- J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM
Rockies (9)
- John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
- Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
- Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
- Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
- DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
- Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
- Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
- Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
- Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM
Royals (8)
- Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
- Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
- Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
- Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
- Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
- Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
- Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
- Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM
Tigers (5)
- Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
- Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
- J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
- Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
- Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM
Twins (6)
- Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
- Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
- Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
- Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
- Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
- Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM
White Sox (5)
- Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
- Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
- Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
- Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
- Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
- Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K
Yankees (7)
- Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
- Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
- Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
- Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
- Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
- Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM
*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.
MLB Trade Rumors Has A New Look
Did you know it’s been five years since we changed the look of the desktop version of MLB Trade Rumors? As the site approaches its ten-year anniversary, we decided it’s time for something new. Thousands of you have already previewed this new design, and the response was positive.
Most of the changes we’ve made apply to the desktop and tablet versions of MLBTR:
- More of an open, contemporary look
- New scroller up top with major headlines
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- Search box is in a more prominent place; we’re working to improve the accuracy of its results
- Restructured navigation bar (Home, Teams, About, etc.)
- Load More Posts button at the bottom of the site, rather than Page 2, Page 3, etc.
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What hasn’t changed, of course, is the core of the site. We’re still focused on bringing you the news and rumors as quickly as possible and providing context for all the information. And we’re sticking with one old-school quirk in our desktop design: full text of the latest articles, right on the homepage.
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