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Reactions To Mets’ Cuddyer Signing

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The Mets jumped the free agent market yesterday in a surprising way, signing right fielder/first baseman Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21MM deal that requires the forfeiture of their #15 overall pick in the 2015 draft.  As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote, it was a surprising series of events: Cuddyer wasn’t expected to receive a qualifying offer, then he was expected to accept it once the Rockies made it, and the Mets weren’t expected to be interested in him after the draft pick cost was attached.  More on the signing:

  • Cuddyer said on a conference call with Mets beat writers today that he would have accepted the Rockies’ qualifying offer had he not been signed by the Mets.
  • Sullivan suggests a conservative estimate values the Mets’ lost pick around $10-15MM, and feels the team is “slightly overpaying” overall for Cuddyer.  Personally, I think the Mets valued the pick lower than $10-15MM, as that estimate seems to assume the Mets’ pick would have become one of the game’s 100 best prospects.  If we instead apply Dave Cameron’s 3x valuation of a draft’s slot value, we might get $7.5MM in value, which MLBTR’s Jeff Todd suggested to me yesterday.  Jeff further noted the Mets might have reasons to devalue that estimate.  I also think we were low in estimating Cuddyer’s QO-free market value at two years and $22MM back in mid-October, and his real market value could easily have been two years and $28MM or three years and $36MM.  Clearly the Mets valued the lost pick into their offer one way or another.
  • Andy Martino of the New York Daily News doesn’t even want to hear an argument that the Mets should not have sacrificed the pick for Cuddyer, saying, “Nothing in baseball is more romanticized, fetishized and overvalued than draft picks and prospects.”  Martino feels the Cuddyer signing signaled the right mindset for the Mets.
  • The Mets initially balked at giving up the pick to sign Cuddyer, writes Marc Carig of Newsday, but GM Sandy Alderson changed his mind.  According to assistant GM John Ricco, “I think this is a message that we’re going to be aggressive. And right out of the box, we had a guy we liked and we went out and got him.” The Mets had no interest in offering multiple years to other free agent candidates, says Carig.
  • New Rockies GM Jeff Bridich comes out smelling like roses, snagging a supplemental draft pick most didn’t expect he could get.  Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post has quotes from Bridich, who said, “The way that we looked at it was that if we had Cuddy come back on a one-year deal with us, and had he just purely accepted the offer, that was fine.  We tried to engage on multiyear talks from the get-go. Even before the (qualifying) offer was made.  When the qualifying offer was made, we said, ’OK, if there is anything to talk about a multiyear offer, let us know. We are ready to engage.’ That doesn’t guarantee it would happen, but we were ready.”  It seems Bridich did a better job of reading Cuddyer’s market than the media did.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post likes the signing for the Mets in a 55-45 way.  He explains, “He was the outfielder with flaws the Mets knew they could get and there is an upside that makes this a huge gamble probably worth taking. The Mets did not have to touch their pitching surplus to land Cuddyer. They got this done on Nov. 10. They have their stockpile and all winter to address shortstop.”
  • Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News has quotes from Ricco regarding Cuddyer’s recent spotty health record.  Said Ricco, “He took a physical today. We’ve looked at all the injuries and there was nothing there that we’re too concerned about.  And the age is the age. Certainly there’s risk associated with any signing. And we believe in the player and think he’s going to be a real good fit for us.”

AL West Notes: Kendrick, Astros, Engel Beltre

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The Angels remain open to trading second baseman Howie Kendrick, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Kendrick, 31, is eligible for free agency after the season.  More from the AL West…

  • The Astros’ 2015 payroll still projects to be in the $70MM range, explains Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle.  The team has about $17.7MM committed for 2015 for four players, plus around $21MM for their seven essential arbitration eligible players, a few of whom could be traded.  It’s easy to see that this team has some money to spend.
  • Drellich says “there’s little expectation the Astros would add a player who received a qualifying offer,” but admits that the team will be more open to giving up a draft pick this winter.  “We have two protected picks.  So a qualifying offer is not necessarily an impediment to how we would behave compared to a team that had a pick that was their only pick, and that was No. 13 or 15 or something like that. So we have that advantage,” said GM Jeff Luhnow.  The Astros would give up the competitive balance round pick they acquired from the Marlins in the summer if they sign one of the 11 qualified free agents.  The Astros were linked to Hanley Ramirez earlier today.
  • Outfielder Engel Beltre has elected free agency after refusing an outright assignment to Triple-A from the Rangers, writes Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com.  GM Jon Daniels said, “He’s exploring other options.  We are as well. We haven’t closed the door. We haven’t made him an offer at this point.”  Beltre, who missed the entire 2014 season with a fractured tibia, was a key piece of the Rangers’ return from the Red Sox for Eric Gagne at the 2007 trade deadline.

Mets Inquired On Jimmy Rollins

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A Mets trade for Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is “not happening,” a source tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.  Rubin says such a move is not on the Mets’ radar due to the $120MM owed to Tulo through 2020, as well as the prospect cost of “two or three blue-chippers.”  More from Rubin:

  • The Mets spoke with the Phillies about acquiring Jimmy Rollins, writes Rubin.  Rubin adds, “The pursuit since has been dismissed because Rollins does not want to leave Philadelphia.”
  • The Mets are unenthusiastic about the available free agent shortstops, and plan to go the trade route to fill the position.  The Diamondbacks, Mariners, White Sox, and Cubs are viewed as viable trade partners.  Andy Martino of the New York Daily News says “it has been difficult, if not impossible” for the Mets and Cubs to agree on the value of Starlin Castro.  Meanwhile, Martino says Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox only emerged as a possibility within the past week.  Martino’s early read has the White Sox seeking the Mets’ top young starters and the Mets pitching their veterans.
  • If the Mets are unable to acquire a shortstop, or go with a defense-first type like Didi Gregorius, they are likely to retain second baseman Daniel Murphy, writes Rubin.  If they get a shortstop who can hit, Murphy is more likely to be dealt if the Mets get a sufficient offer.  Rubin expects the Mets to wait on Murphy until after resolving their shortstop situation.
  • The Mets seek a veteran lefty reliever to complement Josh Edgin in their bullpen.  They are also seeking a backup infielder, unless Wilmer Flores is bumped to that role.
  • The Mets will also consider trading Dillon Gee, Jonathon Niese, or Bartolo Colon.

Epstein On Offseason, Lester, Bullpen

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“It’s probably the first time agents can come into our suites without having to look both ways to make sure no one sees them coming in,” joked Cubs president Theo Epstein in talking to reporters last night at the GM Meetings in Phoenix.  He added, “We’re no longer the runt of the litter, I guess.”  More on the Cubs as they embark on what seems likely to be their most active offseason since 2006-07…

  • Epstein further explained, “We have a couple of the most important currencies in the game: some payroll flexibility and some good young players.  So it opens up a world of possibilities and makes it more fun.”  The Cubs are known for the game’s best stash of position player prospects, and their commitments for 2015 will likely come in not much over $50MM.
  • Epstein commented on his previous relationship in Boston with free agent lefty Jon Lester, saying, “Free agents in general, they’re going to make good decisions for themselves and for their family and try to find a place where they can win and be comfortable and find a contract that works for them.  To the extent that relationships help reassure players about those different factors, then (our relationship is) relevant. It establishes a comfort and trust. But beyond that…he’s going to have his pick.”
  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune also has Epstein’s thoughts on adding a reliever to put together a shutdown bullpen, as was on display in this year’s World Series.  As Sullivan writes, the bullpen doesn’t seem to be a priority for the Cubs, and Epstein is careful to draw conclusions based on the Fall Classic.
  • In his talk with reporters yesterday, Epstein made multiple mentions of “the next 15 months,” suggesting he’s got an eye on the 2015-16 free agent class as well.

Sherman On Burnett, Josh Johnson, Johan Santana

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The latest from Joel Sherman of the New York Post…

  • Sherman notes that in the past, A.J. Burnett signed close to his Maryland home because his wife hated flying.  However, agent Darek Braunecker says this is no longer a restriction.  Sherman mentions previous interest from the Angels and Rangers.  Burnett is wise to expand his market, since teams like the Orioles, Mets, and Nationals are not generally looking to add starting pitching.
  • The Padres are working to re-sign Josh Johnson.  They already declined a $4MM option on the righty, who had Tommy John surgery in late April.  No deal is close for Johnson, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.
  • The Dodgers have let teams know they prefer to trade Andre Ethier and/or Carl Crawford and will listen on Matt Kemp.  The Dodgers are willing to kick in cash or take a bad contract back, and will pay more down for a better return in players.  This is one of the few ways teams can still use financial clout to purchase young talent, in my opinion.  Sherman says the Dodgers feel their current outfield situation is untenable, which fits with Ken Rosenthal’s report from Sunday.  In a poll of 28 baseball industry insiders by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, Ethier was considered the most likely to be traded.
  • The Dodgers are also looking to add to their rotation and bullpen and are among the more interested suitors for Russell Martin.  The Dodgers were one of four teams recently revealed to have a meeting in place with Martin’s agent.
  • Johan Santana is “hellbent on coming back,” agent Chris Leible tells Sherman.  Santana, 36 in March, was close to returning to the Majors with the Orioles last summer after April 2013 shoulder surgery, but he ruptured his Achilles tendon in June.  Santana is currently jogging and playing catch.

Braves Notes: Gattis, B.J. Upton, Third Base

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post heard yesterday that the Braves were pushing catcher Evan Gattis hard, but the team’s president of baseball operations, John Hart, called the report “absolutely inaccurate.”  The latest on the team…

  • One strategy for the Braves is to package Gattis with B.J. Upton, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Upton is owed $46.35MM through 2017 after posting two awful years for Atlanta.  Rosenthal says most of the Braves’ roster is in play.
  • The Braves want to add a left-handed hitter who could possibly platoon with third baseman Chris Johnson, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  I doubt the Braves want Juan Francisco back, but the Cubs’ Luis Valbuena could be a fit.
  • Hart doesn’t expect to make a trade at the GM Meetings, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.  Hart explained, “I think you’re going to have conversations. I think the Winter Meetings are a pretty good dance place, because people will have seen what is going on in the free-agent ranks, evaluated the trade market for players they want and done all of the things clubs do to make a deal.”  Bowman notes that beyond Gattis, the Braves might trade Justin Upton or Jason Heyward this winter.  Each outfielder is scheduled for free agency after 2015.

Free Agent Notes: Exec Poll, Landmines, Manny

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick presents his always-enjoyable annual poll of baseball GMs and other executives today.  Among the leading opinions: Jon Lester provides better value than Max Scherzer, Giancarlo Stanton’s contract situation will remain unresolved, and the Cubs will sign Russell Martin.  Crasnick asks eight questions in all, and some are not clear-cut, such as whether Cole Hamels or Starlin Castro is more likely to be traded.  On top of that, here’s some free agent reading…

  • First, stop what you’re doing and bookmark MLBTR’s free agent tracker and list.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has his free agent landmines, which is always a good read.  Cameron was spot-on last year.  My slight disagreement would be with Edinson Volquez.  I agree that paying him based on a 3.04 ERA would be folly, but he’s not a bad buy on a two-year deal if his reduced walk rate from 2014 can be sustained.  Marry that with his strikeout rate from 2010-12, his propensity for groundballs, and his solid fastball velocity, and you’ve got an interesting, healthy 31-year-old pitcher.
  • ESPN’s Jim Bowden predicts contracts for his top 50 free agents.  I’ll take the over on Bowden’s predictions for Lester, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Andrew Miller, Chase Headley, Brandon McCarthy, and Jake Peavy.
  • Manny Ramirez is playing in the Dominican Republic and is “not ready to give up the dream” of returning to MLB, agent Barry Praver tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Ramirez, 42, last appeared in the Majors in 2011 when he had 17 plate appearances with the Rays and chose to semi-retire rather than serve a 100-game PED suspension.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports talked to the former slugger in March.  Manny went on to hit .222/.273/.375 in 77 Triple-A plate appearances for the Cubs’ affiliate this year.

Tigers Notes: Price, Dombrowski, Newhan

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To the surprise of no one, star free agents Max Scherzer and Victor Martinez turned down qualifying offers from the Tigers yesterday.  Re-signing Martinez seems to be a priority for GM Dave Dombrowski.  More on the Tigers…

  • The door is not closed on a new deal with free agent reliever Joba Chamberlain, says Dombrowski, but it’s not a priority right now.
  • Dombrowski said he has not talked about an extension with lefty David Price, according to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Dombrowski said he knows both sides will want to see free agent prices first.  That’s a reference to the current free agent class, says Rosenthal.  Price is eligible for free agency after the 2015 season.
  • Dombrowski has four prominent starting pitchers under control for 2015 in Price, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Anibal Sanchez.  According to Rosenthal, the GM says he is happy with his starters and not looking to move anyone, but will always listen as he has in the past.
  • The Tigers announced they have named former big leaguer David Newhan assistant hitting coach to Wally Joyner, replacing the departed Darnell Coles.

Blue Jays Notes: Martin, Kawasaki, Phillies

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The Blue Jays are in on several top free agents as the offseason kicks off.  They’ll meet with Pablo Sandoval’s agent Gustavo Vasquez today, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.  Reps for Victor Martinez spoke to the Jays recently, and there’s reportedly a meeting on the books with Russell Martin’s agent as well.  Further details on Canada’s team…

  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos preached flexibility yesterday.  According to Davidi, Anthopoulos said, “We’re going to try to take the best player available, and we’re not locked into one thing, like we need a defender at first base, we need a pure DH. It depends on what becomes available to us.”  Edwin Encarnacion can be deployed at first base or DH, while third base could be opened up by using Brett Lawrie at second.
  • Martin, a Canada native, turned down the Blue Jays before the 2010 season because the Yankees offered more playing time behind the plate, according to Davidi.  Davidi feels that of all the Blue Jays rumors, Martin may be the one with the most substance.
  • The Jays are looking at Anthony Gose and Kevin Pillar in center field next year, barring a trade.
  • Infielder Munenori Kawasaki is leaning toward a return to Japan, but Davidi says he might be swayed by a Major League contract.
  • The Jays called the Phillies about Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, and Antonio Bastardo, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.

Astros Checked In On Hanley Ramirez

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The Astros have checked in on top free agent hitter Hanley Ramirez, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Rosenthal notes that with Carlos Correa, Colin Moran, and Rio Ruiz in the Astros’ pipeline for the left side of their infield, it’s unclear whether the Astros would be willing to meet Ramirez’s demands for a large contract.

In Zach Links’ profile of Ramirez for MLBTR four days ago, he projected a six-year, $132MM deal.  In recent predictions, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and an anonymous GM predicted five-year deals for Ramirez worth $105MM and $90MM, respectively, while an agent went with six years and $122MM.  ESPN’s Jim Bowden takes the low end at just four years and $76MM.  Clearly, there’s a wide range on Ramirez’s next contract.

Ramirez could make sense for the Astros, who project to have less than $40MM committed for 2015 even after paying their arbitration eligible players.  Correa, Moran, and Ruiz have a 2016 estimated time of arrival, but not all prospects pan out on a schedule, and Ramirez recently expressed a willingness to play “wherever there’s a need,” according to Heyman.  The Astros’ first-round draft pick is protected, so they would have to forfeit the competitive balance round pick they acquired from the Marlins in the summer trade that netted them Moran if they were to sign Ramirez.

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