Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners
Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…
- The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
- The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.
Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners burst onto the scene in 2019, providing us with a valuable reminder about the importance of sample size as they jumped out to a 13-2 start. Those early wins would amount to nearly 20 percent of their total for the year. They went on to play just .374 baseball the rest of the way en route to a 68-94 last place finish, thereby extending their postseason drought streak to an 18th consecutive season (the longest active such streak in North American professional sports). Now that the Nationals won it all in October, the Mariners also hold the ignominious distinction of being the only team in the majors without a single World Series appearance.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Kyle Seager, 3B: $38MM through 2021, $15MM club option in 2022 (becomes player option if Seager is traded)
- Yusei Kikuchi, SP: $32MM through 2021, if 4-year/$66MM club option for 2022 to 2025 is declined, it turns into a $13MM player option for 2022
- Dee Gordon, 2B: $13.8MM in 2020, $14MM vesting option in 2021
Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Tim Beckham – $3.0MM
- Domingo Santana – $4.4MM
- Mallex Smith – $2.7MM
- Omar Narvaez – $2.9MM
- Sam Tuivailala – $900K
- Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Beckham
Option Decisions
- Wade LeBlanc, SP: $5MM club option, declined for $450K buyout
Free Agents
- Felix Hernandez, Arodys Vizcaino, Kelby Tomlinson, Keon Broxton (outrighted, elected free agency), Ryon Healy (outrighted, elected free agency), LeBlanc, Mike Wright, Tommy Milone, Ryan Garton
To get a sense of the Mariners 2019 season, consider this: their leader in games played was a designated hitter with a .208 batting average. Or this: where baseball-reference lists their pitching staff, just four starting pitchers populate, one of whom spent the final two months on the Diamondbacks. Or try this: Edwin Encarnacion finished third on the team among position players in bWAR, and he played his last game as a Mariner on June 12. Put another way, the Mariners lost 94 games in 2019 as they entered year one of a self-described “reimagining.”
Executive VP and GM Jerry Dipoto has been hard at work outlining clear guidelines to prepare the Seattle fanbase for another development year in 2020. It’s a rebuild, no doubt, but Dipoto has done a nice job of claiming some high-ceiling youngsters to keep an entertaining product on the field. They’re not quite “reclamation projects” because these players have yet to establish themselves in the majors, but recent acquisitions like Shed Long, Justus Sheffield, Jake Fraley, and J.P. Crawford have been in the conversation as prospects for some time and are now getting a fresh look in Seattle. These “reclamation prospects,” let’s call them, give the fanbase something to root for even as the losses pile up. It would not be surprising in the least to see Trader Jerry target more of these types of projects for 2020.
In terms of their own prospects, the time to shine is nigh for the likes of Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Braden Bishop, and Evan White. Lewis got the biggest head start in 2019 by muscling up for a .592 slugging percentage in 71 at-bats as a September call-up. White probably has the highest ceiling, though he’s furthest away and there should be no rush to start the service clock of their 23-year-old first baseman. If this crew with the others above are able to successfully establish a base of major league talent, the Mariners will be in a good place to augment as their best prospects (Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert) approach promotion in a year or two.
Whether that group has a high enough ceiling to challenge the juggernaut Astros and competitive A’s isn’t totally clear. Hence, the second year of this rebuild provides an important window for the Mariners to add more talent. They shipped out most of their marketable vets in last year’s purge, but a few pieces remain that could conceivably move for prospects. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times quotes Dipoto predicting a calmer trade season, but a tiger can’t change its stripes, and with 29 enabling GMs out there ready to deal, take Dipoto’s claim with a grain of salt for now. That said, the offense looks pretty close to set, with Kyle Seager, Crawford, Dee Gordon, and Austin Nola going around the horn and Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith, and Mitch Haniger penciled into the outfield. Omar Narvaez and Tom Murphy make up the catching tandem, and probably the most secure unit on the roster. To Dipoto’s point, that lineup doesn’t boast a cavalcade of gems opposing GMs will trip over each other to come claim, but they do have a sort of logjam with Tim Beckham, Dylan Moore, Shed Long, Lewis, Fraley, and Bishop all ready for larger shares of playing time asap. Dipoto will listen to offers, no doubt, but it might take until mid-season to find takers for his remaining vets.
With a good first half, the Mariners will no doubt try to move Santana. He’ll make around $4.4MM in 2020 and will be arbitration eligible for the final time in 2021, so he’s controllable but affordable. A 2019 line of .253/.329/.441 is pretty close to what you might expect from Santana, but he strikes out too much and is borderline unplayable in the field, which will grossly mitigate any potential prospect return. Same for Daniel Vogelbach, who struggled in the second half to the point that the team plans to play him more or less exclusively at DH. Gordon has the name recognition to pop up in trade rumors but not the track record of recent productivity to make him appealing. Seager put together a bounceback campaign, hitting .239/.321/.468, but as the longest-tenured Mariner, he’s also a fine candidate to serve as a veteran bridge to the next competitive group. Besides, he’s still likely too expensive to move (especially since his 2022 option becomes guaranteed with a trade).
On the more plausible side, a healthy Mitch Haniger could fetch a decent return, as could any number of bullpen arms that develop over the first half of the season. Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland helped replenish the pool in that way last trade deadline, and they should probably be open to moving anyone who steps up in the first half this year, including controllable assets like Taylor Guilbeau, whom they received from Washington in the Elias/Strickland deal. Austin Adams is another Washington castoff who could become a valuable trade chip once he is healthy, as might Sam Tuivailala, Matt Magill, or any number of slush pile free agents they add to the mix prior to Spring Training. Dipoto took full advantage of the bullpen carousel last season, and it’s a safe bet to expect him to do so again.
Keon Broxton was a mid-season slush-pile find from last season, but with no offense to speak of, the defensive standout was outrighted at the starting bell of the offseason. Like Broxton, Ryon Healy chose free agency after a disappointing two-year run in Seattle. Dipoto sent Emilio Pagan to Oakland to acquire Healy, a disappointing move in retrospect as the first baseman hit just .236/.280/.423 across 711 plate appearances in two seasons in Seattle.
Speaking of free agency, the Mariners do have some money to spend, and Dipoto will look to add flippable assets, probably in the form of starters on one-year deals. Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, Martin Perez and Tyson Ross might be free agent targets. Depending on the shape of the market, Michael Wacha, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles and Kendall Graveman could also be names worth exploring. Speculatively speaking, Julio Teheran, who had his option declined by the Braves, could be a name they monitor depending on the price point. There’s anywhere from one to three rotation spots up for grabs in Seattle, depending on how aggressive they want to be with getting Sheffield and Dunn time on the major league roster. In a perfect world, Kikuchi pitches better in his second season stateside while Sheffield and Dunn make themselves indispensable pieces of the 2021 rotation — but there’s probably at least one rotation spot available for a veteran looking to establish value.
Marco Gonzales is the big potential trade chip they have yet to cash in, but every indication points to him being a foundational piece over trade fodder. After pitching to a 3.99 ERA/3.83 FIP across 369 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, the soon-to-be 28-year-old enters 2020 as easily the most reliable member of the pitching staff. If indeed Dipoto hopes to re-enter the competitive fray in 2021, Gonzales provides more value pitching for the Mariners than as trade bait. And given that he is under team control for an additional three seasons after 2020, there’s no real urgency to move him. Especially not after the good faith two-year deal they gave Gonzales as a pre-arb player undoubtedly laid the groundwork for productive negotiations in the future.
Still, the Mariners have almost no money on the books following this season, and given Dipoto’s itchy trigger finger, there’s no ruling out acquiring a player with more than one season of team control. There’s no ruling out anything, really, when it comes to Dipoto. The Mariners are in a great place financially, and Lord knows Dipoto will eventually explore the trade market. For at least the next calendar year, the Mariners have only one priority: add talent to the organization by whatever means necessary so that come 2021, as promised, the framework for a contender is in place.
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies endured one of the more disappointing seasons of their 27-year history in 2019. It may seem hard to remember now, but just a season ago, the 91-win Rockies came within one game of derailing the Dodgers’ now-seven-year run of dominance in the NL West. This season, they floated around .500 for much of the first half before face-planting hard in July and August. Despite scoring 55 more runs overall, the 2019 Rockies finished with an inverse record of the year prior at 71-91, 35 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: $234MM through 2024 (opt-out after 2021)
- Charlie Blackmon, RF: $43MM through 2021 ($21MM player option for 2022, $10MM player option for 2023)
- Wade Davis, RP: $17MM in 2020 ($15MM mutual option for 2021 with $1MM buyout, becomes player option with 30 games finished in 2020)
- Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $23MM through 2021 ($15MM club option in 2022 with $2MM buyout)
- Daniel Murphy, 1B: $8MM in 2020 ($12MM mutual option in 2021, $6MM buyout)
- Bryan Shaw, RP:$9MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
- Jake McGee, RP: $9.5MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
- German Marquez, SP:$38MM through 2023 ($16MM club option for 2024, $2.5MM buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Chad Bettis – $3.8MM (outrighted, elected free agency)
- Scott Oberg – $2.0MM
- Jon Gray – $5.6MM
- Tyler Anderson – $2.625MM (claimed by the Giants)
- Trevor Story – $11.5MM
- Tony Wolters – $2.0MM
- Carlos Estevez – $1.2MM
- David Dahl – $3.0MM
- Kyle Freeland – $2.4MM
Free Agents
- Yonder Alonso, Drew Butera, Bettis
This team is equipped with high-end, in-their-prime talent on offense, stunning regressions to reckon with in the rotation, and an overpaid bullpen still one season from financial freedom. The likeliest route to flipping the script (again) and returning to playoff form – and this won’t be fun to hear – is probably internal improvement. On that front, Bud Black and company have more questions than answers.
What’s worse, if you’ll pardon a mixed metaphor, the front office has their backs against the bottom line: per Cot’s Contracts, the Rockies ran out an Opening Day payroll of just over $145MM, a team record they’ve reset every season since 2014. Assume a $9MM jump to mirror their rise in payroll the past two offseasons, and a 2020 Opening Day payroll would land around $156MM. Unfortunately, even after the subtraction of Anderson and Bettis, Roster Resource projects their current payroll at around $159MM.
There’s just not much wiggle room in the numbers. The money owed either belongs to core members of the roster (Arenado, Story, Gray, Marquez) or unmovable veterans performing below or near replacement level (Davis, Shaw, McGee, Desmond). In another year, the commitment to those four drops from $50.5MM to $13MM, assuming Davis finishes fewer than 30 games (which shouldn’t be a problem after an 8.65 ERA in 50 outings this season).
Thinking creatively, maybe there’s an AL team out there in love with Charlie Blackmon. Despite manning right field for the Rockies, the numbers say Blackmon’s no longer a super-viable option for NL teams (he stepped down the defensive spectrum in 2019 but remained among the worst-rated defensive outfielders in the game with -9 Outs Above Average). Blackmon doesn’t steal bases anymore, though a 125 wRC+ pegs him as genuine asset at the dish – in good company with Bryce Harper, Gleyber Torres and Matt Chapman. Still, the total Blackmon package rounded down to just 2.0 fWAR in 2019 – fine production for a regular position player, but shy of true All-Star status, unfortunately, given the All-Star money still coming his way ($64MM over the next three seasons, by the end of which he’ll be 36 years old). There aren’t many teams with a need at designated hitter, and with cheaper, shorter-term alternatives on the market like Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Howie Kendrick, Avisail Garcia, among others, it seems likely Blackmon remains in Colorado for 2020.
The other fatty contract they could look to move belongs to Daniel Murphy. With just $14MM guaranteed remaining, it’s possible GM Jeff Bridich could find a taker, but it’s not the best time to sell on the soon-to-be 35-year-old. Even if someone takes the contract, after a less-than-inspiring .279/.328/.452 line, a trade won’t net much talent in return or provide enough relief to afford a difference maker in free agency. However, losing Murphy’s $8MM could be enough to grab a rotation arm on a one-year deal in the mold of Wade Miley.
They could instead explore moving Ryan McMahon, who filled out their infield quartet this season by taking on full-time responsibilities at second base. On the surface his .250/.329/.450 line with 24 home runs looks okay, but 88 wRC+ puts him 12 percent below league average without enough defensive fortitude to make up the difference. A near 30 percent strikeout rate more or less tells the tale for McMahon. Still, he and Murphy provide too much the same skillset to make their pairing on the right side a benefit, and if Bridich gets creative he might use the surplus to shuffle some pieces around.
A significant shakeup doesn’t seem possible without moving one of their core assets. It would not be easy to break up Arenado and Story, who make up, essentially, a perfect left side of the infield. They’re both plus-plus defenders and power hitters in their athletic prime who are beloved by the fan base. Arenado enjoys full no-trade protection, and the organization has shown little interest in trading Story. That said, with an estimated $11.5MM coming his way and another arbitration season to follow, it’s a logical time to move him. It won’t be fun, but a Story trade might be what’s best for the long-term health of the franchise.
Also a key part of this conversation is top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who struggled over two big league stints before a torn labrum ended his season in July. He’s not the defender at shortstop that Story is, but he can probably stick there if need be. If he becomes the full-time second baseman, that means bumping McMahon into a full-time utility role until Murphy’s contract runs out. That would make sense if the Rockies weren’t strapped for cash and in need of serious help on the pitching side. There’s definitely a trade to be made somewhere on the offensive end of the roster, but it’s doubtful any of the Rockies’ imperfect-fitting bats carry enough value to make much of a difference via trade. Story or David Dahl are exceptions, though the organization seems intent on keeping them.
Speaking of Dahl, the Rockies plan to keep him in center next year, and though he’s passable up-the-middle, he’s not exactly a profit center out there from a defensive standpoint. Offensively, he’s produced as promised, despite being continually beset by ticky-tack injuries like the high ankle sprain that cost him the second half of 2019. As a .297/.346/.521 career hitter, he is no doubt an asset on that side of the ball, but he’s also a qualified Super Two facing an arbitration raise for the first time this season despite never putting together a full season.
Outside of a successful cup of coffee from Sam Hilliard and decent play from free agent castoff Yonder Alonso, the Rockies’ offense cratered after their core four (Arenado, Story, Blackmon and Dahl). Tony Wolters and Garrett Hampson have elite skills – defense and speed, respectively – but have yet to shore up the weaker parts of their games. Ian Desmond can line up at multiple outfield positions and first base, but his bat doesn’t play at of those spots. Raimel Tapia took a full turn in left field at age 25 and came up empty, as fWAR and bWAR agree that he was worth almost a full win below replacement (-0.9). That’s not a rousing cast of characters, but the core is strong enough that the Rockies should have no trouble augmenting with cheaper veterans taking the leftover at-bats in left and behind the plate. In a perfect world, one of those veterans could also be a backup plan to Dahl in center field (Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals could be a reasonable archetype).
The real scapegoat of the Rockies’ disappointing 2019, and where they should devote most if not all of their offseason attention, is pitching. The bullpen was bad in 2019, producing the second-highest FIP and second-lowest fWAR while commanding a serious chunk of the payroll. The inherent volatility of bullpen arms will allow the Rockies to trot out Davis, Shaw and McGee with at least an outside shot of returning some of their value, while Jairo Diaz, Scott Oberg, James Pazos and Carlos Estevez will do their best not to relinquish their squatters’ rights on the other bullpen spots. As much as the bullpen is in a less-than-ideal situation, the rotation needs the most work after a collective 5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP that ranked dead last in the NL.
It’s certainly unfair to heap an entire season’s worth of disappointment on a single player, but if we were to saddle just one man with the blame, Kyle Freeland would win the vote in a landslide. Jon Gray was last year’s demoted ace, but a redemptive campaign saw him reclaim ace-by-default status thanks to his year-over-year ERA shriveling from 5.12 in 2018 to 3.84 in 2019. Marquez is their third rotation asset, but his ERA rose to 4.76 as he stayed around the plate so often (4.9 BB%) opponents were able to barrel him up at an above-average rate (7.9%). Marquez and Gray will be counted on for mid-rotation production, at minimum, with a ceiling of a number one. The same could be said of Freeland, though with an even lower floor. That’s way too much baked-in variance for the top three of a rotation. If they produce somewhere between the 3.91 ERA they averaged in 2018 and the 5.11 ERA average of 2019, it’ll certainly help, but that alone won’t be enough to close the gap on the Dodgers.
Of the three, Gray is the most likely to be turned into a package of prospects, but the former No. 3 overall pick’s value is tough to pinpoint. By FIP and exit velo, Gray’s 2018 and 2019 were almost identical campaigns. This season saw a slight dip in strikeout rate, a third consecutive year of a rising walk rate (from 6.5% to 7.0% to 8.8%), and a career-high hard hit percentage of 43.6 % that ranks in the bottom four percent of starters league-wide. On the plus side, he did put the ball on the ground more often and dramatically lowered opposing launch angles. In sum: Gray kept the ball down, but gave up harder contact, which doesn’t profile as significantly predictive for future seasons, even if the results this season make the improvement appear significant.
That said, Gray’s stuff is good enough that if the Rockies were to dangle him, there are sure to be teams out there confident in maximizing his potential. If Bridich and company don’t want to move someone like Story or Dahl, Gray would probably land the biggest return. The Rockies need arms to compete in a National League with most clubs in go-for-it mode, and if the Rox don’t believe in the crew that crashed and burned this season, the trade market might be the only solution.
It’s certainly tough to trust the incumbents. On the whole, the 2019 pitching staff performed much like Gray. Their 48.8% groundball rate was second in the majors. With Story and Arenado on the left side, groundballs should turn into outs more frequently than for your average MLB infield, so that’s a sound strategy. Unfortunately, when they weren’t burning worms, the basically put together a perfect cocktail for a “crooked number.” The Rockies’ 7.85 K/9 rate as a team was 15th in the NL, while their 3.66 BB/9 ranked as the NL’s second-highest figure. Plus, over 20 percent of fly balls that Colorado allowed turned into homers, which was worst in the majors. Not missing bats, giving up plenty of free passes, and yielding fly balls that leave the yard at uncommonly high rates is the recipe for big innings.
Organizationally, the Rockies are in a tough spot, and they’re going to have to get creative if indeed they want to compete. A Story trade would bring the largest injection of talent to the system, but given the organization’s fondness for him and Rodgers looking more like a future second baseman, an extension seems more likely. Still, they’ll need to explore all their options on the trade market.
The Rockies already lost a couple of players from their 2019 collection, with Sam Howard, Pat Valaika, and Tyler Anderson claimed on waivers. Chad Bettis was also outrighted and is likely to enter free agency along with Tim Melville. But the issues facing this team in the offseason run much deeper than the fringes of the roster. The outlook isn’t great after a 91-loss season, but Bridich has indicated a rebuild is not forthcoming. On one hand, that seems shortsighted. On the other, urgency is understandable when you consider 2019 marked the 27th consecutive season since their inception that the Rockies failed to capture a division title.
NL Notes: Rockies, Marlins, Mets
The Rockies pitching staff collapsed in 2019, and it led to a myriad of attempted fixes, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke. So far, however, the Rockies remain at a loss. There is concern about the state of the baseball and how it reacts in Colorado’s altitude, but scouts around baseball also point to a habit of “careless deliveries” among Colorado hurlers as a cause for concern. Bud Black and his team are hard at work trying to diagnose the issue(s), and without payroll flexibility over the winter, identifying internal solutions might be their best chance at improvement in 2020. Still, it’s a dispiriting read for Colorado’s fans, as the Groke writes that the Rockies went so far as to “shut down their top starter, 24-year-old German Márquez, in late August, in part to save him from the bombardment.” They’ll have a clean slate in 2020, but a long road ahead as the Dodgers remain a juggernaut, while the Diamondbacks and Padres are rising contenders. Let’s check in elsewhere around the NL…
- The Marlins feel much differently about the future of their pitching staff. This season definitely opened some eyes to the burgeoning talent in Miami’s rotation, but the best may be yet to come. Miami management believes they have a dozen or more identifiable arms in their system with big-league rotation potential, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jose Urena has been the big name of the rotation in year’s past, but his future is uncertain with Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Jordan Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez all competing for regular roles next year.
- Managing the Mets is not the easiest job in baseball, but in tabbing Carlos Beltran for the role, New York found someone who knows what to expect and is ready to handle the unique challenge of managing in Queens, per The Athletic’s Tim Britton. Beltran is a long-respected clubhouse leader, and though he’ll be new to the managing role, he is no stranger to the New York spotlight. Ownership rarely takes a backseat for the Mets, but Beltran’s existing relationships will help him in that department as well. The biggest obstacle to a successful tenure for Beltran remains in Atlanta, DC, and Philadelphia.
Coaching Notes: Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants
Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo set out to hire a pitching coach with four specific qualifications, per The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. He was looking for someone, obviously, with pitching knowledge, good communication skills, and the ability to work well with the team’s medical personnel, but Lovullo also wanted someone with the creativity and innovative instincts to stay up-to-speed with the changing shape of the game. Matt Herges may not be the picture-perfect candidate, but he’s the guy with the job. And while Arizona reportedly offered the job to Kirk Saarloos and Bryan Price before Herges, they are no doubt content with Herges and value the eagerness with which he has come to the role. Sometimes the right decision is as simple as hiring the person who wants the job most.
- A lot was made of Gerrit Cole beginning to get warm in the bullpen during the 5th inning of the World Series’ clinching game, but apparently that was nothing more than a bit of self-direction of Cole’s part, per A.J. Hinch in an interview with The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Hinch did have Cole up and warming in the 7th, as the plan was for Will Harris to escape the inning and Cole to start the 8th with a 2-1 lead. Best-laid plans, in this case, never got Cole into the ballgame. Still, Hinch stands by his decision to go with Harris at that point, as well as Roberto Osuna and Joe Smith following. Frankly, all four were legitimate options in those spots, though the results ultimately make any defense of Hinch’s decisions, like the game itself, a losing battle.
- Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro remains in the running for managerial openings with the Giants and Pirates, tweets John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. He was not specifically identified within a group of favorites that included Gabe Kapler, Pedro Grifol, and Joe Espada, but he did interview at least once with San Francisco, and there’s still a chance he becomes the third Rays staffer to land a managing gig in as many years.
Sam Dyson Elects Free Agency
The Minnesota Twins outrighted injured reliever Sam Dyson from their major league roster, and the 31-year-old reliever rejected a minor-league assignment to become a free agent, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune.
The move was largely expected, as the native Floridian was set to make around $6.4MM through the arbitration process if the Twins tendered him a contract. Dyson had shoulder surgery in late September and is expected to miss all of the 2020 season.
Dyson was one of the Giants’ many sought-after relievers at the trade deadline, and the Twins surrendered a trio of prospects to get him. It wasn’t the most successful of deadline moves, unfortunately, as the sinkerballer managed just a 7.15 ERA over 12 outings for the Twinkies. The gaudy ERA is a little misleading, as it’s largely due to a disastrous first pair of outings, which nonetheless colored the rest of his Minnesota tenure. After a short stint on the injured list, he returned to post a 2.53 ERA over his final 10 appearances as a Twin.
Considering the injury, Dyson doesn’t figure to latch on with a big-league club until 2021, though given the difficulties contenders had building bullpens this season, it remains a possibility some team could look at Dyson for a rehab contract such as the Cubs have done with Kendall Graveman and Drew Smyly in each of the past two offseasons.
MLB Ruling On Astros Investigation To Come After World Series
Major League Baseball continues to investigate the incident involving the Houston Astros’ apparent attempt to discredit Sports Illustrated reporter Stephanie Apstein, per Joel Sherman and Ken Davidoff of The New York Post. Apstein, of course, published an article about inappropriate comments made during the Astros’ ALCS-clinching clubhouse celebration by assistant GM Brandon Taubman, who has since been fired.
Commissioner Rob Manfred made clear that a verdict will not come down from MLB until after the World Series is over. Sherman and Davidoff expect a fine at the very least, though the extent of MLB’s inquiry won’t be clear until their decision has been rendered. What is clear, per Manfred, is that the investigation began in response to the Astros’ initial statement regarding Apstein’s article.
As for the overall scope of MLB’s inquiry, said Manfred: “There are a variety of issues. I’m not going to narrow it to the statement or any of those. We’re going to continue to review the situation, have communication with (Astros owner Jim Crane).”
The incident is all the more frustrating for league officials as it continues to cast a shadow over the World Series, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. Both the league office and the Astros are keen on keeping focus on the games ahead, though there remains an understandable amount of public curiosity regarding any potential sanction against the Astros.
The Nationals’ “Bottom-Up” Analytics Strategy
The Nationals are well known as one of MLB’s organizations still reliant on an old-school, if not yet antiquated scouting infrastructure. Much of this stems from GM Mike Rizzo, a former scout and scouting director himself. They are not, of course, blind to analytics, and as is the case with all front office these days, the way they blend traditional scouting with the use of analytics is what makes the footprint of their front office particular.
Their first-ever analyst hire, in fact, now serves as an assistant general manager. Sam Mondry-Cohen, a former bat boy, is a key figure in deploying the Nats “bottom-up” strategy to analytics, per Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Mondry-Cohen and Rizzo stress the importance of clubhouse temperament to the utilization of their data, letting their players dictate to a large degree where and how data is utilized. The Nats organizational philosophy is more transparent than ever this season with mood-manager extraordinaire Davey Martinez helming a rambunctious veteran clubhouse that credits their on-field success to baby sharks, dugout dances, and group hugs.
The Nationals also credit themselves for mixing analytics with instinct in deploying a quick-strike offseason strategy that netted key players like Patrick Corbin, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki last offseason. Bottomless sieves of data and a competitive landscape rich with intelligent front offices can make decision-making a slog, but the Nationals try not to dwell when instinct can kick-in. It’s served them well, as the Nationals have eight straight winning seasons and a new NL pennant banner to hang.
Once the World Series is finished, it will be interesting to see how this front office values their own free agents. The group includes obvious notables like Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon, but surprise elite contributors like Howie Kendrick and Daniel Hudson also enter the free market, as does the captain of their folk hero superteam: Gerardo Parra.
Bloom Brings Creative Edge To Red Sox
Despite holding the title of reigning World Series champs, the Red Sox fell behind in the analytics and creativity departments under Dave Dombrowski, per The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. With former Tampa Bay Rays executive Chaim Bloom wined and dined and his contract finalized, Boston appears to be back on track.
We know Bloom as one of the decision-makers credited with the innovation of the opener/piggyback strategy of pitcher deployment. The origins the the Rays innovative pitching solution, of course, trace not only to the forward-thinking group of executives in Tampa, but to a confluence of events/trends in baseball in recent seasons. Buck Showalter’s decision not to use Zack Britton in the 2015 Wild Card game shined a spotlight on the limitations of the “closer” role, and Tito Francona took the other side of the debate in showcasing Andrew Miller as a dominant fireman throughout the Indians’ 2016 World Series run. Craig Counsell and Josh Hader canonized the role in Milwaukee. Injuries (and injury-risk) also play a part, and the Rays’ limited financial resources are inextricably linked with their role as thought leaders in the MLB.
Without a clear-cut fifth starter under contract for next season (incumbent Rick Porcello is headed to free agency) the Red Sox are a fertile landscape for further use of the opener next season, per The Athletics Chad Jennings. Of course, need is only one part of the success of the opener in Tampa. It doesn’t take off without a top-ranked bullpen (by ERA) on-hand to carry the freight. The Rays relied on a core group of elite relievers like Emilio Pagan, Diego Castillo, and Nick Anderson, but they were also diligent roster curators who mixed-and-matched 30 different arms throughout the season. And as Jennings points out, the Rays were hardly starter-averse, with Charlie Morton, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow all holding traditional starter roles.
Boston’s bullpen ranked just 17th with a 4.40 ERA in 2019, but they ranked 8th with a 4.14 FIP and first overall with 10.50 K/9. They deployed the opener strategy in small doses this season out of necessity. Bobby Poyner, Josh Taylor and Travis Lakins got tastes as openers, while Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez are pen candidates to soak up chunks of innings in the follower/piggyback role. As with Andrew Friedman and the Los Angeles Dodgers, however, Bloom’s brand of roster innovation will take new shape in a much different financial landscape in Boston. Of course, the previous regime left Bloom and the Red Sox behind the eight ball with a 2020 payroll already around $224MM (per Roster Resource).
With David Price, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez on hand in the rotation, Bloom inherits a rotation that, on the surface, is eighty percent set. Still, Eovaldi and Sale are coming off injury-riddled seasons, Price is 34-year-old with over 2,000 innings on his arm, and Rodriguez is coming off his first season of more than 140 big league innings. There’s plenty of uncertainty baked into this group. With Bloom on hand, the Red Sox are better equipped to find creative alternatives in the offseason to prepare for another marathon with their AL East rivals in New York and, of course, Tampa Bay.
Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte
The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…
- It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
- Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
- As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.