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The Tigers’ Forgotten Pitching Prospect

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The Tigers are one of the teams seen to be on the rise heading into 2022, in no small part because of a cavalcade of promising rotation arms that have begun to establish themselves in the big league rotation. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal are three of the most impactful variables that might make the difference for Detroit in 2022. The pedigree of these three are well known, and their arrival in the Majors long-anticipated. Manning was the ninth overall selection of the 2016 draft, and Mize followed two years later going first overall. Skubal was the unheralded of the three, a former ninth round pick who rose to prospect prominence prior to the 2020 season.

But in the year between the Manning and Mize selections, the Tigers spent another first-round pick on a college righty whose road to the Majors took on a more circuitous route. After leading the University of Florida to a National Championship, Alex Faedo went 18th overall to the Tigers in the 2017 draft, signing for a $3.5MM bonus, barely less than it took to sign Manning the year prior. Faedo was a high character right-hander who looked like a future rotation piece based on the strength of his slider.

The gaudy strikeout numbers that Faedo posted in college didn’t translate to pro ball, however, and after making an appearance on top-100 prospect lists prior to the start of his professional career, Faedo soon after fell from the national spotlight. His fastball lost a tick or two of velocity, his change-up never fully developed, and the slider lost just enough effectiveness to dim his prospect star. He remained among Detroit’s better looking prospects, however, with Baseball Prospectus pegging him as the 10th, 6th, and 11th-ranked prospect in the Tigers’ system prior to the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons, respectively.

He finished the 2019 season in Double-A having recaptured some of the swing-and-miss that had eluded him in his first couple of seasons on the farm. He made 22 starts for the Erie SeaWolves that year, posting a 3.90 ERA in 22 starts covering 115 1/3 innings with a career-best 28.3 percent strikeout rate. He was expected to compete for a rotation spot at some point in 2020 despite not having tossed an inning in Triple-A, but a bout of COVID-19 delayed his season, and then forearm soreness led to Tommy John surgery, which ended it. Faedo hasn’t pitched since that 2019 campaign, but he’s on his way back. Faedo started throwing bullpens in his recover from Tommy John on January 11th, which should put him on track for game action sometime in March, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).

The lost time means the Florida native still hasn’t pitched above Double-A, and at 26  years old now, his days as a top prospect are behind him. But expect the Tigers to push him once he’s proven healthy. If he can get himself back up to speed, Faedo could absolutely become a factor somewhere on the roster for the Tigers.

Even before the injury, Faedo had yet to establish a third pitch, so it could be that he eventually makes his bones out of the bullpen. A fastball that reached 95 mph as a starter could play up out of the bullpen, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first former prospect with a slider-forward arsenal to become an impact bullpen arm. Perhaps that’s not the result the Tigers or Faedo hoped for when he was a first round pick back in 2017, but in 2022, the Tigers are going to need some farmhands to pop in unexpected places in order to make a real push for contention. If Faedo can earn his keep on the 26-man roster at some point in 2022, both team and player ought to be encouraged. That’s still a long ways off, but with his first bullpen sessions in the rearview, consider the first hurdle crossed.

Minor League Notes: Space Cowboys, Hsin-Chieh Lin

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Let’s check in on the latest from the minor league landscape…

  • The Sugar Land Skeeters have completed their rebrand. The Astros’ Triple-A affiliate is now the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, with brand new duds and a new logo to boot. The Skeeters had played in the independent league from 2012 until 2019, with last season being their first season as an affiliated ballclub. In terms of the re-brand, the Space Cowboys struck a chord alluding to both their Texas roots and Houston’s NASA connection. “We really wanted an identity that reflected a connection to the Astros but stood out as unique and was aligned with the values of Sugar Land: vibrant, thriving, aggressive and a very family-oriented community that’s clearly focused on investing in the future,” said Anita Sehgal, SVP, marketing and communications at the Astros, per MLB.com’s Tyler Maun.
  • Phillies prospect Hsin-Chieh Lin plans to enter the 2022 draft for the Chinese Professional Baseball League, per the CPBL Stats Twitter account. Lin has pitched in the Phillies farm system since 2018. The right-hander pitched most of 2021 with Single-A Clearwater, tossing 20 innings with a 7.20ERA over four starts and four relief appearances. Lin was not considered to be a top prospect, and given that he is a native of Taiwan, it’s easy to understand a desire to make a run at the CPBL.

Mets Not Done Upgrading Rotation

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When roster transactions once again fall within the purview of professional baseball teams, the Mets will be on the lookout for another starting pitcher to add to their already-formidable rotation, per Andy Martino of SNY.TV.

Martino specifies that the Mets will absolutely be willing to go the trade route to make that pickup. That certainly tracks with what’s available on the open market. Most of the top free agent hurlers have already signed, and while there are certainly still some viable names on the market – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodon, to name a few – but the most intriguing long-term options can be found in the trade network.

For starters, the Reds and A’s are two of the teams that seem most willing to deal their current rotation arms. We know Oakland to be in play, and they have lots of offer with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassitt each capable of contributing first-division innings for a contender. If he’s available, Luis Castillo might be the most intriguing name of all, though it remains unclear exactly how available the Reds have made their presumptive ace. Sonny Gray should also be appealing after a 2.4 fWAR season with the Reds in 2021. Gray, like Castillo, remains under team control for two more seasons. Chris Paddack of the Padres could be an interesting arm to inquire after as well. It’s worth noting, of course, that none of these arms figure to come cheap.

The Mets have already added legend Max Scherzer to the rotation, but practically speaking, the upgrade over Marcus Stroman might not prove to be the skeleton key that Mets’ fans hope. It ought to open some doors, for sure, and that’s not to say the upgrade will “come out in the wash,” exactly, but it might not be enough to turn the Mets into instant contenders. Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman, but there’s at least some age and injury risk for Scherzer, who finished 2021 with a tired arm.

Beyond losing Stroman, the Mets also lost Rich Hill, who contributing a competent 63 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA, and Noah Syndergaard, who, despite his name recognition, did not factor into the Mets’ 2021 season in a significant way. Otherwise, they’re starting staff remains intact. Is that a great sign? Mets started ranked 13th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. That’s a good staff, but it also wasn’t enough to get the Mets to the playoffs.

Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37,  Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective, and they don’t exactly have youth on their side. Carrasco hasn’t made more than 12 starts in a season since 2018, Walker was healthy in 2021 for the first time since 2017, and deGrom made just 15 starts last season. Scherzer has been a workhorse, but Father Time remains undefeated.

Beyond those fours, Tylor Megill took hold of a rotation spot last season with 18 starts and a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP across 89 2/3 innings. Those numbers are likely to give the 25-year-old the inside track on a rotation job, but they won’t be enough to guarantee one. Trevor Williams, Sean Reid-Foley, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto make up their depth group at present. Williams has the most rotation experience of the four, but he pitched better out of the bullpen after coming to New York from Chicago, and the Mets could see themselves fit to continue him in that role. On the whole, this group has spent significant time in big league rotations in the aggregate, but not so much so that it would be surprising to see the Mets seek out another arm.

The Mets made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in signing Scherzer, but their work is far from done. If Mad Max and deGrom make 25-30 starts a piece, the Metropolitans will feel pretty good about their ability to stay in the race. That’s a better Plan A than most teams can muster. But it’s been a long time since Plan A has come to fruition for the New York Mets.

This Date In Transaction History: Red Sox Sign Mike Napoli

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On this date in 2003, the Red Sox made one of the best free-agent signings of all time. The story of David Ortiz’s Red Sox career is well-known and often recounted, however. So let’s fast-forward to this date eight years ago when the Red Sox added another pretty good first baseman/designated hitter: Mike Napoli put pen to paper and officially signed a one-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed. The deal was notable because the two sides had previously agreed to a three-year, $39MM contract that fell apart because of concern over the health of Napoli’s hip.

After the failed physical, Napoli briefly flirted with a return to the Texas Rangers, with whom he’d spent the previous two seasons. Napoli had been a significant trade acquisition for the Rangers following the 2010 season, making his one and only All-Star team while helping Texas repeat as American League champions. Though Texas would fall for the second consecutive season in the World Series, Napoli played lights out, slashing .350/.464/.700 in 28 plate appearances with two home runs and 10 runs driven in.

Regardless, the Red Sox had more playing time to offer the former catcher, and he became Boston’s new first basemen with a deal guaranteeing $5MM while still providing a ceiling of $13MM based on incentives. The 31-year-old would take home the full boat, cashing in with 139 games played, 578 plate appearances, and 3.7 rWAR by way of a .259/.360/.482 batting line. He chipped in 23 home runs despite a 32.4 percent strikeout rate.

Napoli was absolutely a contributing factor in the Red Sox turning around a 93-loss team from the season prior, becoming a 97-win juggernaut that rolled past the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals to win the World Series title. Though Napoli would play in the World Series three times, 2013 was the only time he’d walk away with a ring.

Ultimately, though the hip issue got Napoli’s Boston tenure off to an inauspicious start, the relationship was an unmitigated success, so much so that Napoli re-upped following that 2013 campaign for another two seasons at a $16MM AAV. Ultimately, Napoli earned $45MM over that three-year stretch, well more than the $39MM he would have earned under the original terms of his deal.

These days, Napoli is a Quality Assurance Coach on the staff of one of his former teammates from that 2013 team, David Ross.

Wladimir Balentien Announces Retirement From NPB

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Wladimir Balentien is retiring from Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, the outfielder announced via Twitter. The 37-year-old is best known for setting the NPB’s single-season home run record in 2013 when he slugged 60 home runs for Tokyo’s Yakult Swallows. Balentien played for 11 seasons in the NPB, suiting up for the Swallows for nine seasons from 2011-2019 and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks for the past two seasons.

Balentien, who is of Curacaoan and Dutch descent, originally signed with the Mariners as a 16-year-old amateur free agent out of Venezuela in July of 2000. He debuted as an 18-year-old in 2003 with the Mariners’ rookie ball team. As he climbed the ranks of the Mariners’ system, Balentien’s star was on the rise.

He was invited to play in the Futures Game in both 2006 and 2007, then made Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects list prior to the 2008 season at number 93. He debuted in the bigs in 2007, going 2-for-4 in a cup-of-coffee four plate appearances over three games.

Balentien would see real playing time in Seattle the next season, appearing in 71 games for 260 plate appearances. And while he continued to slug in the upper levels on the minors – slashing .266/.354/.584 that same season in Triple-A – he hit just .202/.250/.342 with the M’s.

After struggling again through 170 plate appearances the next season, the Mariners traded Balentien to the Reds for 25-year-old right-hander Robert Manuel. Balentien seemed to hit his stride the rest of that campaign, hitting .264/.352/.427 in Cincinnati. He was just 24-years-old at the time.

And yet, that would be the last time Balentien appeared in MLB. He hit well for the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010, but an outfield of Jonny Gomes, Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce played well enough to lead the Reds to a division title. Without an opportunity at the Major League level, “Coco” took his talents overseas, signing with the Yakult Swallows, where he would become a mainstay over the next nine seasons.

In his first season with the Swallows, Balentien led the Central League with 31 home runs. The Swallows would make the Finals, but fall to the Chunichi Dragons in six games.

Two seasons later, Balentien broke Sadaharu Oh’s record of 55 home runs in a single season, setting a new record with 60. Though a later revelation proved that a livelier baseball had been used for the 2013 season, Balentien’s record nevertheless stands today. He finished his career in Japan with a triple-slash line of .266/.370/.546 with 1,001 hits and 301 home runs.

Trade Candidate: Nick Ahmed

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This winter’s free-agent shortstop market has long-promised to shake up the league, and it’s lived up to its billing thus far. But we’re only part-way through the transfiguration. The Rangers signed two of the top shortstops available, adding a wrinkle that the other 29 clubs have yet to iron out. If nothing else, two significant dominoes – Carlos Correa and Trevor Story – have yet to fall, so there are even more twists-and-turns when the lockout ends.

For those teams not willing to plunk down six figures for a long-term solution like Correa or Story, however, it would be worth giving Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen a call to see about the availability of veteran Nick Ahmed. Ahmed struggled mightly at the plate in 2021, slashing just .221/.280/.339 over 473 plate appearances, but that’s never been his calling card.

If nothing else, he’s affordable. He’s entering his age-32 season with two years and $18.25MM left on his deal. The contract is affordable, but it could also be a potential obstacle. The money owed is substantial enough that teams may doubt whether he offers enough of an upgrade whatever they have in-house. Any rookie shortstop will offer better value potential because of a rookie minimum contract. Besides, it’s easy to dream on the untapped potential of a young player that you haven’t yet seen fail at the Major League level.

There is still, however, the question of whether the Diamondbacks would be willing to sell a player that’s come into his own with their franchise, becoming a fan favorite in the process. But after a disastrous 110-loss season, it’s hard to consider the Diamondbacks as anything but sellers.

They’ve finished last in the NL West for consecutive seasons and only made the playoffs once in the past decade. What’s more, they’re staring down what might be the most competitive division in baseball as the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres are each in pedal-to-the-metal, World-Series-hopeful mode.

As teams look to upgrade their rosters, there are only so many rosters to scour. This time of year, belief is rampant, so finding a trade partner requires either an aligning of team needs, a team looking to cut payroll, or as in the Diamondbacks case, a team in rebuilding mode with an outside shot at contention next season. Whether the Diamondbacks see themselves in that light is unclear, given that they’re just two offseasons removed from signing Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM deal.

Even this winter, they made a win-now-ish move by signing veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal. Of course, there are levels of rebuilding, and the Diamondbacks have to field a full roster just like any other team. Signing Melancon could just as easily be the acquisition of a future trade piece as it is a sign that the front office thinks they can win the NL West this season. Teams around the league have definitely called to inquire about the availability of Ketel Marte, but they’ve thus far been rebuffed–another sign that Arizona might be leaning towards a soft bid for a wild card spot.

Ahmed, however, has never been a high-impact player, and the Diamondbacks can almost certainly find another solution, should they decide to move him. He’s never posted higher than a 96 wRC+, and his career mark sits at 74 wRC+. His 2.3 fWAR season in 2019 is the only time he’s topped 2.o fWAR over a full season (though he was on pace to surpass that mark in 2020, had there been a full season).

Frankly, Ahmed is pretty close to being a prototypical second-division starter, and that’s not the type of guy that teams really look to trade for in the offseason. What makes Ahmed appealing, however, is that he does have an elite skill: defense. Certain teams have grown adept at maximizing flawed players with elite skills, and there’s no reason to think that the right organization couldn’t maximize Ahmed’s talents in a similar fashion.

Bottom line: Ahmed is a veteran who should probably transition to a part-time role, but that might be something he’s willing to do if he’s on a contender. The Diamondbacks don’t need a win-now veteran like Ahmed, and they should probably be using that spot to audition young players who have a chance to stick long-term. That’s the calculus for a trade.

So who might be interested in Ahmed? The right team would be a competitive club looking to make the playoffs who has a solution up the middle, but not a surefire All-Star in that spot. Ahmed would be a perfect third middle infielder to compliment a lefty bat or a bat-first option up the middle. Some options:

The Astros could use Ahmed to ease Jeremy Pena into regular playing time. He would essentially be the glove-first version of Aledmys Diaz. They probably have enough pop to slide another glove-first body into the bottom of the lineup, though this probably only works if one of their young centerfielders proves a genuine offensive weapon, as they’re already giving one lineup spot to a glove-only vet in Martin Maldonado.

The Cubs might take a flyer on Ahmed to bolster the young and injury-prone up-the-middle duo of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. Both young infielders are natural second baseman, and both are coming off injury-ravaged seasons. Ahmed would find playing time as Hoerner gets moved around the diamond, and he could serve as insurance should one of the pair end up back in the trainer’s room.

If the Yankees don’t pony up for one of the top free agents, Ahmed would nicely protect the offensive asset that is Gleyber Torres by allowing their young slugger to mostly stay at the keystone. The plan to convert 30-year-old Gio Urshela to a full-time shortstop has some legs after a 24-start tryout in 2021 (-1 DRS, -0.2 UZR), but it would be a lot to expect him to handle the full load. Ahmed would instantly become the best defender in an offensively potent Yankee infield, and they could find ways to maximize his glovework and minimize trips to the dish.

The Phillies really need more offense, but so long as Didi Gregorius is their starting shortstop, there would be a place for Ahmed. After a 68 wRC+ season from Gregorius, the Phils might just as soon improve their infield defense – which also needs work.

Given the stars that have been on the free-agent market this winter, and the stars that might be on the market next year (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts), Ahmed represents a decidedly milquetoast solution to a premier position. But he’s not a solution on his own. He’s a capable veteran who can absolutely help defensively if fit into a bench role on the right club. There’s a team out there that can use Ahmed to help them win games and reach the postseason. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks probably aren’t that team.

Cubs Eschewing Power In New Ways

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Last season, as most of Major League Baseball moved incontrovertibly towards a high velocity, strikeout-forward approach, the Cubs put together a soft-tossing rotation not at all focused on missing bats. Headlined by Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, perhaps the two preeminent control artists in the sport, the Cubs unique approach aimed–quite literally–to induce weak contact rather than avoid it. If success was a long shot, there was at least a strategy, even if their zag to the league’s zig was prompted by need.

Chicago’s pipeline of pitching talent had gone dry. The Jon Lester– Jake Arrieta-Hendricks triumvirate was the engine of the 2015-2017 peak Cubs. When they came to power in 2015, Cubs’ starters finished third overall in the Majors with a 3.36 ERA. They topped the sport by measure of ERA in 2016 with a 2.96 mark. By 2017, they had begun to slip, down to seventh overall with a 4.04 mark.

The magic was gone. As Arrieta’s superhuman years faded into the background, the Cubs let him walk in free agency. They made moves to replace him–trading for Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, and Jose Quintana–some moves came before he left and some came after, but none could stand up to Arrieta in his short, but astronomical peak. Lester began to age, Darvish’s return to frontline status was a slow burn, and the Cubs settled into a groove of good, but unremarkable rotations, finishing 10th overall by ERA in 2018 and 2019.

David Ross’ squad sprinted to a sixth overall finish in 2020 by ERA as Darvish and Hendricks gave them a semblance of the staffs from the peak Cubs. Maybe their success emboldened the front office to give the offensive core one more opportunity to recapture the magic of the 2016 title run. But as we now know, the Cubs were at their best when driven by a top-notch rotation, and in 2021, they were stuck in the slow lane.

Only Hendricks and Davies made all 32 starts, but both posted the worst seasons of their careers as the Cubs lost 91 games. The rotation ranked 26th overall with a 5.27 team ERA, easily the worst performance since the Cubs took off in 2015. A power pitching game isn’t strictly necessary to field a competitive squad, but the Cubs do need something more.

They’ve already made strides, putting together a less gimmicky rotation than last year, scooping Wade Miley off the waiver wire and signing one of the top free agent arms in Marcus Stroman.

On the offensive end, the speculation continues that they might make a bid for Carlos Correa. If not, the Cubs would roll out a starting middle infield of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. While the young pair is promising, one could also argue that they represent the hitter version of last year’s rotation gambit. While the rest of the baseball world hunts dingers, a Hoerner/Madrigal combo boasts turn-of-the-century talent – and not this century.

Hoerner has hit three home runs in 378 career plate appearances, while Madrigal has two over 324 plate appearances. Steamer suggests a whopping 14 combined home runs between the two of them if given regular playing time. Home runs aren’t everything, so we can check their isolated power: Madrigal owns a .089 ISO and Hoerner a .078 ISO. Where .167 ISO is league-average, Nico and Nick are decidedly punch-less. Granted, neither has played even a full season in the Majors, so their numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but neither has shown much power in the minor leagues either.

Signing of Correa or Trevor Story changes the calculus, but either way, the Cubs expect Hoerner and Madrigal to be regular cogs in the lineup. There’s upside there for Chicago, but whether it’s enough to charge this new era of Cubs baseball remains to be seen. The Cubs have long had a strikeout problem from a team perspective, and getting 500+ at-bats from Hoerner and Madrigal would definitely see more balls put in play. Neither walks a ton, however, so there’s heavy lifting to do in other parts of the lineup, as well as for manager David Ross in putting together a lineup with two contact-first bats who don’t walk or hit for power. (As a counterpoint, Hoerner posted a 10.0 walk rate in 2021, which is better than the league-average rate of 8.7 percent, and a 9.5 percent walk rate the year before.)

Of course, the Cubs don’t like Madrigal and Hoerner because of what they don’t do.

Both are regarded as strong defenders, making them necessary supports for the new-look rotation. Stroman and Miley finished in the top 10 among qualified pitchers for groundball rate, and though Hendricks’ 43.1 percent groundball rate wasn’t as high as many years, he still finished 20th in the Majors by that metric. Infield defense will have to be a plus for the Cubs new rotation to succeed, and their young, contact-oriented duo will be key.

For that to work, however, their infield duo needs to be on the field, and both have struggled in that regard. More than a lack of power, poor health will doom the potential of the Nico and Nick show.

If they do stay healthy, they are the beginning of a movement underway in Chicago. We can even add first baseman Frank Schwindel to the list of Cubs infielders who excel at making contact. Of course, Patrick Wisdom strikes out enough for the whole infield (40.8 percent strikeout rate over 375 plate appearances in 2021). That certainly helped land the Cubs the highest strikeout rate in baseball last season at 26.7 percent. They finished 27th-ranked in 2020.

Strikeouts are a death knell for an offense, killing momentum and vaporizing the potential favor of BABIP good luck. It’s not “the answer,” but it’s certainly a piece of what could be a winning strategy. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. And believe it or not, the Cubs’ brass still wants good things to happen for this ballclub. The peak era Cubs boasted big-time power, so they could weather higher strikeout rates, but that team is gone, and this team is still forming its identity.

The Cubs tried putting together a pitching staff that didn’t strike anybody out, so it’s only natural that when that failed, they should try an offense that puts the ball in play. After all, they know it works because they’ve seen it work. With Nico and Nick leading the way, if nothing else, these new Cubs should put the ball in play, just to give themselves a chance.

Francisco Liriano Announces Retirement

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Left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano has announced his retirement, agent Mike Maulini tells Robert Murray of FanSided. Liriano debuted in 2005 with the Twins as a 21-year-old, and he last toed the rubber with the Pirates in 2019. All in all, Liriano appeared in 14 big-league seasons with the Twins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, and Pirates. MLBTR sends our sincere congratulations to Liriano on a long and successful career.

Liriano originally signed with the Giants as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic on September 9, 2000. He would spend his first three professional seasons in San Francisco’s minor league system, reaching High-A in 2003 before being traded to the Twins in November. The deal would prove a good one for Minnesota, who received Liriano with Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan in exchange for catcher A.J. Pierzynski and cash. The deal marked the first of four times that Liriano would be traded throughout his professional career.

With the Twins, Liriano became a star. He burst onto the scene for a 96-win club in 2006, immediately crowned as the perfect sidekick/successor for ace Johan Santana. The 22-year-old threw 121 innings with a 2.16 ERA/2.55 FIP. Liriano was so impressive that he made the All-Star team, his only such appearance. Just as Liriano tantalized Minnesota’s fanbase with his electric arsenal, disaster ended the dream before it really even began: Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery in early November, knocking him out of the entirety of 2007.

He returned in 2008 to make 14 starts, posting a 3.91 ERA/3.87 FIP over 76 innings. Unfortunately, the electricity was gone from his game as his 30.4 percent strikeout rate from 2006 fell to 20.4 percent in his return season. Though some thump may have been gone from Liriano’s game, he proved to be an extremely resourceful and resilient professional, twice winning the Comeback Player of the Year award.

The first time came in 2010 when he rebounded from a difficult 2009 seasons to start 31 games and toss 191 2/3 innings with a 3.62 ERA/2.66 FIP, striking out more than 200 batters for the first time in his career. Liriano helped the Twins to 94 wins and a division title. He made just one postseason start as the Twins were bounced from the playoffs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. That club was the third division winner of the past five years, but all three were swept out of the playoffs, and they tumbled to fifth place in 2011.

They stayed there in 2012, which helped lay the groundwork for the second trade of Liriano’s career. The Twins traded Liriano to the White Sox on August 1, 2012 for Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez.

Liriano signed a somewhat surprising deal with the Pirates that offseason that turned out to be a prescient move for the Buccos. Liriano made 26 starts in his first season with the Pirates, tossing 161 innings with a 3.02 ERA/2.93 FIP, a remarkable effort that won Liriano his second Comeback Player of the Year award. Liriano proved the perfect avatar for the Pirates’ own turnaround, who won 94 games and ended a 20-season playoff drought.

Not only did Liriano help get the Pirates to the postseason, he was the winning pitcher of a one-game playoff against the Reds, tossing seven innings of one-run baseball en route to a 6-2 win. That win might be the single greatest moment in the last 30 years of Pirates baseball. Remarkably, that team boasted a rotation that included a young(er) Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, but Liriano was the ace of that staff, and he pitched like it in the postseason.

The Pirates would go up 2-1 in the NLDS before ultimately falling in a five-game loss to the Cardinals. Liriano started a game three win as well, pitching six solid innings and giving up just three hits and two runs. Liriano even walked and drove in a run with a sacrifice in that game.

Liriano and the Pirates would return to the playoffs a wild card team in each of the next two seasons, running into a pair of buzzsaws in Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta, both of whom threw complete game shutouts in their respective wild card contests. Liriano’s run in Pittsburgh was no less remarkable, however, as he posted a 3.65 ERA over 693 2/3 innings in parts of five seasons with the Pirates.

The 2016 season would mark the end of the second phase of Liriano’s career and begin the third. After a subpar start to the season for both player and team, Liriano was traded for the third time in his career. This time saw him shipped to the Blue Jays along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez in exchange for Drew Hutchison.

He was traded for the last time at the deadline the next season. The Astros acquired Liriano for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez. He shifted to the bullpen, becoming a lefty specialist and winning a World Series with the 2017 Astros. He recorded a valuable out in each of game six and game seven, retiring Cody Bellinger on both occasions.

Because of the speed at which Liriano burst onto the scene, he probably ended up being slightly underrated throughout his career, one marked by reinvention. No matter the trial, Liriano pushed through it, making 300 career starts and appearing in 419 career games, tossing 1,813 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.15 career ERA and 3.88 career FIP. He was an All-Star, a World Series winner, and he even tossed a no-hitter while a member of the Twins back in 2011. Congratulations to Liriano on a truly remarkable career.

Can The White Sox Make The Most Of Andrew Vaughn?

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The White Sox have one of the best closers of his generation burning a hole in their pocket. Craig Kimbrel’s trade availability is no secret, so much so that speculation has reached the what-happens-if-they-don’t-trade-him part of the trade rumors life cycle, as explored yesterday by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk. That said, when GM Rick Hahn picks up the phone to talk shop with one of the other 29 general managers, Kimbrel’s not likely the sole topic of conversation.

After all, determining value for a player like Kimbrel can often be accomplished by touching on a number of evaluative points, i.e. players, before circling back to the original focus. And of course, sometimes those conversation never return to the original player of focus at all. Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports speculates on who some of those other players are that the White Sox might bandy about in trade talks. This practice mostly amounts to a listing of the White Sox prospects and young players who haven’t yet established themselves in full-time roles, and sure enough, for Chicago’s Southsiders, they are the type of win-now club that must consider moving prospects.

The top player on Duber’s list (after Kimbrel), is Andrew Vaughn, the third overall pick of the 2019 draft. After an explosive season with the California Golden Bears, Vaughn was seen as a potential fast-riser, but it was still surprising to see the White Sox take a first baseman third overall, behind only superstars-in-waiting Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Impressive though his bat was, first baseman simply don’t usually go that high in the draft.

What’s more, the White Sox already had a first baseman in Jose Abreu. Abreu hadn’t yet put up his 2020 MVP season, but internally, the organization has always held him in high regard. Drafting for positional need isn’t exactly the rule of thumb for the MLB draft, of course. Regardless, at the time, Abreu was a potential free agent at the end of the year. So Vaughn, besides being a high-end college bat, benefited the White Sox as an insurance policy and negotiating tactic even before he donned a uniform.

Vaughn being blocked at first by Abreu was an easy can to kick down the road for Chicago’s draft team, but the hypothetical quandary actualized in 2021 as Vaughn approached big-league readiness. Though 2019 was his only season of minor league experience because of the pandemic, the White Sox nevertheless deemed Vaughn ready for the show in 2021, and they didn’t let the fact that there wasn’t an avenue to regular playing time stop them from placing Vaughn on the opening day roster. Of course, injuries cleared a path: all Vaughn had to do was learn a new position on the fly at the highest level of the sport.

All things considered, Vaughn held his own rather well in his rookie season, slashing .235/.309/.396 across 469 plate appearances while spending time at first base, left field, right field, second base, and third base. His performance at the plate was a touch disappointing as he finished six percent worse than average with a 94 wRC+, but if anyone deserves a little grace, it’s Vaughn.

Again, let’s consider the circumstances. Vaughn played his age-23 season not having played organized baseball in more than a year, never having appeared above High-A while adjusting to life as a part-time player and learning not one, but four new positions. He did so for a team with postseason expectations that absolutely did not have time to wait for Vaughn to “grow up.” He did so while taking the place of not one, but two injured outfielders in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert who had quickly become the faces of the rising power in Armour Square. Even to be roughly the value of a replacement player under those circumstances (0.2 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR) has to be counted as a win for the ChiSox. The future is bright for Vaughn, with Steamer projecting Vaughn to become a 114 wRC+ hitter by next season.

For a high draft pick debuting for a championship contender, Vaughn’s national spotlight was surprisingly dim. His low profile can be partially attributed to the other stars on the team that pull attention their way, it could be partially attributed to the fact that the White Sox ran away with the division, but most of all, it’s probably attributable to the fact that part-time players rarely take center stage. And as Gavin Sheets, another rookie bat, crushed righty after righty, Vaughn was more-and-more relegated to the short-side platoon duties for which he was probably best suited.

Vaughn’s platoon splits are hard to ignore. The young slugger mauled southpaws to the tune of a 156 wRC+ with a .269/.383/.555 line. Against right-handers, Vaughn shrunk to a .221/.277/.332 triple slash, a mere 68 wRC+. Based on that production, Vaughn is already an elite short-side platoon bat. The question is whether he can grow to be more than that if he’s not getting those at-bats against same-handed hurlers. The White Sox will be heavy favorites in the AL Central, but the Royals and Tigers are rising, and the Twins and Guardians were formidable foes not long ago. It’s fair to question whether they can give him that time and space to develop.

We have to ask the question: should the White Sox trade Vaughn? For as much as Chicago will be favorited, they have holes to fill at second base, right field, and potentially in the rotation. It would hurt to move Vaughn, but to Duber’s point, we need only return to the Kimbrel trade to see Hahn’s willingness to shuffle pieces around to meet positional need – even when that means sacrificing young players. Last year’s trade of Nick Madrigal was a particular circumstance, of course, where Madrigal’s injury rendered him a zero in 2021. Hahn saw the potential to turn Madrigal’s zero into positive points on the ledger as they made a bid to be World Series contenders.

Of course, given how that turned out for Chicago, Hahn might think twice about making a similar move. That said, moving Vaughn would be a similar move if Vaughn is going to continue as a part-time player. Turning part-time production into full-time production would be a similar capitalization of resources, but that assumes that Chicago won’t find a way to get Vaughn into the lineup on a regular basis. Besides, his long-term potential coupled with his elite production against lefties might be enough for Hahn to tighten his grip on Vaughn, regardless of what kind of player he could get in return.

There’s also the matter of Vaughn’s “versatility,” which Chicago certainly utilized in 2021. Vaughn didn’t embarrass himself defensively at any position, but he also wasn’t a positive in any spot. Sure, they can continue to move him around the diamond as needs arise, but that might not be the best way to maximize Vaughn as a resource.

There are basically two avenues that the White Sox will want to consider for Vaughn as a resource. How can they maximize his value to help this team right now, and how can they best develop Vaughn as a player to reach his substantial ceiling? If they feel confident in aligning those tracks, then there’s no reason to consider moving Vaughn, not when alternatives to fill those roster holes remain. If the White Sox have doubts about their ability to multi-task Vaughn’s development, then it’s worth considering his value on the market.

Then again, what exactly would they be targeting in a deal? A regular second baseman or right fielder with similar team control and potential. Say, a Nick Madrigal type? I kid. But maybe they could pair Vaughn with Kimbrel to get a true in-their-prime superstar in return? Unfortunately, Kimbrel and Vaughn together offer the wrong blend of win-now and build-to-the-future potential for a team that might be willing to subtract a “true superstar.” Besides, there are only so many young players who have proven themselves to be Major League players that a team wants to surrender, even if they have holes to fill.

These deals happen, of course, and they’re rarely easy to spot before the trades are delivered to the league office. The Brewers and Rays excel at these types of deals, but they typically avoid any preciousness about their young players. The White Sox don’t have quite that history. Therefore, more than likely, Vaughn will continue his development as a member of the 2022 White Sox, sometimes playing right field, sometimes playing first base, always crushing lefties, and hopefully beginning to find his way to holding down an everyday spot in the lineup – and that much is true no matter what uniform he wears.

The Impact Of International Signing Day

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Thanks to the year-round work of people like Ben Badler over at Baseball America, we have a pretty clear sense already of how the international signing period has kicked off. Although this is technically an 11-month period, many teams will be mostly done with their international signings after today.

Of course, that’s largely because there’s a cap on how much each team can spend. Because teams are limited to their league-allotted international spending pool, we end up with a fairly egalitarian distribution of prospects to the 30 MLB teams. That said, there are still different approaches.

The Nationals, for instance, in typical Nationals fashion, identified a star and did everything in their power to sign him. They’ll end up with one of the smaller classes of international free agents in the league, but they got their guy in Cuban outfielder Cristhian Vaquero. Still, though they spent the bulk of their money on Vaquero, they spread around the remainder, currently with a list of ten new players for their system.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles have continued to spread their money around with large classes of international signees. They have more than 20 new farmhands as of today, headlined by the 18th-ranked prospect of this class (per Baseball America), outfielder Braylin Tavera out of the Dominican Republic.

Of course, volume in this case presupposes foregoing a certain degree of quality. Or at least, it would, if scouting were a linear and objective process (it absolutely is not). The frustrating truth is: What we can’t know about the future of these players far outweighs what we do know.

Still, of the players who sign today, among them are future superstars. For example, let’s go back to 2018, when the Blue Jays signed Orelvis Martinez for $3.5MM, now one of their top prospects who is quickly approaching the Majors. The Dodgers signed catching prospect Diego Cartaya, whose presence made the trade of Keibert Ruiz all the more palatable. Ruiz, of course, was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Max Scherzer to Los Angeles at the trade deadline. Ruiz himself was part of the Dodgers’ international signing class in 2014.

Other future top prospects joined their current clubs on that 2018 signing day as well, players like catcher Francisco Alvarez of the Mets, who signed for $2.7MM, and Marco Luciano, signed by the Giants for $2.6MM.

The most impact doesn’t always come from the top of the class, of course, as Ronald Acuna Jr. continually reminds us. He signed with the Braves for $100K on signing day back in 2014. Juan Soto signed with the Nationals the next year for $1.5MM, a significant, but hardly groundbreaking sum.

The point is a simple one, perhaps an obvious one: today marks an important day for the game of baseball and its future stars, one that will undoubtedly change the sport, even if we can’t see exactly how.

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