- The Orioles recalled Evan Phillips from Triple-A after optioning Branden Kline yesterday as they continue to seek personnel to get outs out of their bullpen, per MLB.com’s Joe Trezza (via Twitter). Phillips has struggled to find a foothold in the big leagues with a 9.85 ERA across 21 appearances, including a 6.92 ERA in 12 appearances for Baltimore this season. He came to Baltimore from Atlanta as part of the Kevin Gausman deal at last year’s deadline. Kline, for his part, heads to Triple-A with a 5.89 ERA in 15 appearances, though he has been particularly ineffective of late. He was tagged with an earned run in each of his last five appearances, taking two losses in that span. Of the ten pitchers who have pitched out of the Oriole bullpen and made at least 10 appearances on the season, only Gabriel Ynoa (4.96 ERA, 4.92 FIP), Paul Fry (3.51 ERA, 4.67 FIP), and Shawn Armstrong (1.93 ERA, 4.57 FIP) can boast an ERA under 5.00. Although, amongst those in that same group, Phillips actually holds the lowest FIP on the season at 3.76, helped by 11.8 K/9.
Orioles Rumors
Orioles Likely To Place Dwight Smith Jr. On Injured List
TODAY: Smith is indeed going on the seven-day concussion IL, the club announced. Outfielder Anthony Santander takes his spot on the active roster.
YESTERDAY: The Orioles expect to place outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. on the injured list, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters after Thursday’s loss to the Rangers (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com). Smith crashed into the left field wall in the fourth inning, eventually forcing him to exit the game.
“He’s going to be out for a while,” Hyde said. “He’s going through concussion protocol, they’re going to X-ray his shoulder up here that he banged in the wall and he’s holding his jaw. It was like a car wreck.
The 26-year-old Smith has been one of last-place Baltimore’s best offensive players this season, which admittedly isn’t saying much. Still, Smith has perhaps given the Orioles better offensive production than they could have hoped for when they acquired him from the division-rival Blue Jays in early March.
In his first extensive look in the majors, Smith has hit .249/.296/.462 (98 wRC+) with 11 home runs, a .213 ISO and four steals on five attempts across 243 plate appearances. Smith has not complemented his respectable offensive output with quality defense, however, as evidenced by his minus-5 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-3.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-6 Outs Above Average.
The Orioles replaced Smith on Thursday with Stevie Wilkerson, who could take over as their main left fielder if the former does go on the IL. Should Smith miss time, Baltimore would likely summon an outfielder from the minor leagues to take his roster spot. The team’s 40-man outfielders in the minors include Joey Rickard, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and one of its top prospects, Austin Hays.
Orioles GM Elias Discusses The Rutschmann Pick
- Reports from the night prior to the draft suggested that the Orioles were still considering multiple options as the first overall pick, and GM Mike Elias indeed told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza) that “the first four picks were all under significant discussion from us at one point or another.” Rather than take Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, or JJ Bleday, the O’s instead stuck to expectations and chose top-rated prospect Adley Rutschman. “There are pros and cons with every player profile and every player. We like to work our way through all of that and ultimately decided for the long-range benefit of the organization that this was the right pick,” Elias said. It’s hard to argue with the choice, given that Rutschman was widely seen as the top talent available in this year’s class (and perhaps in many years). Elias praised his new player as “a team leader on and off the field” and “a future fixture for this organization.”
Orioles Select Adley Rutschman First Overall
The Orioles have a new front office and new dugout leadership. And now, the club has a new top prospect after officially selecting star Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick of the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft.
Though the Baltimore organization kept things quiet in the build-up to the draft, it would have rated as a major surprise had the club gone in a different direction. Rutschman checks all the boxes you want to see in a 1-1 draft selection.
Rutschman is widely considered the best overall prospect available this year. He’s a highly accomplished collegiate catcher who helped his team to a national championship last year. (Indeed, he was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series.)
Scouting reports on Rutschman, an Oregon native, read like a creat-a-player dream list from a video game. He’s a switch hitter who has walked more often than striking out in college even while delivering outstanding power. Scouts also grade him as a top-tier defensive performer behind the dish.
It’s a momentous decision for an Orioles club that has fallen on hard times after a questionable call to attempt to contend in 2018. The team’s new front office will look to assemble as much talent as possible and ramp up toward a return to glory, with Rutschman’s timeline likely to be a key factor.
The first overall pick comes with a $8.42MM bonus allocation. The O’s have the second-highest overall pool allocation. While the Diamondbacks won’t choose until the 16th overall pick, they added a pair of compensation picks that significantly boosted their overall availability.
Orioles Promote Chance Sisco
The Orioles announced that they’ve promoted catcher Chance Sisco from Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll join the club for the team’s upcoming series against the Rangers and will presumably have the opportunity to prove himself as a viable everyday option for the club moving forward.
Sisco, 24, was widely regarded as one of the game’s top 100 prospects in 2017-18 and looked impressive in a late-season cup of coffee with the O’s in 2017. He wasn’t able to seize the team’s starting role in 2018, however, as he struggled to a dismal .181/.288/.269 slash through 63 games and 184 plate appearances. It’s not uncommon for a young player to flounder through his first extended look at the big league level though, and catchers in particular are often a bit slower to develop offensively.
Sisco opened the season in Triple-A to continue rounding out his game and hit his way back to the Majors with a .289/.383/.530 showing in 193 plate appearances. He’s homered 10 times, hit 10 doubles and collected 19 walks (9.8 percent) against 43 strikeouts (23.3 percent) on the season so far. He’s been average or a tick below in terms of framing over the past couple of seasons and has struggled to control the running game (6-for-33 in 2019), but Sisco’s bat merits another audition at the MLB level as the rebuilding Orioles continue to assess his long-term role in the organization.
With Baltimore, Sisco will team with Pedro Severino to handle the catching duties. His left-handed bat and Severino’s right-handed bat make for a natural platoon if the O’s wish to divide playing time in that manner, and it’d be hard to completely scale back Severino’s at-bats based on how well he’s played. The 25-year-old has proven to be a waiver steal out of the Nationals organization, hitting .273/.360/.475 with five long balls and five doubles in 115 plate appearance and throwing out nine of 15 potential basestealers. He’s allowed five passed balls and posted slightly below-average framing marks, which hurts his all-around value, but the O’s have to nonetheless be thrilled with the results of that particular claim.
Beyond Severino, the Orioles have relied on the light-hitting duo of Jesus Sucre and Austin Wynns behind the dish. Wynns was optioned to Norfolk yesterday, while Sucre was removed from the 40-man roster earlier in the season but accepted an outright assignment to Norfolk. That pairing will now handle regular catching duty in Triple-A and serve as depth.
Orioles Considering Several Players For First Overall Pick
With less than a day to go before the 2019 amateur draft, the Orioles seem to still be exploring their options with the first overall pick. Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman has long been considered the top talent in this year’s draft class by scouts and pundits, though according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, the Orioles are also looking at Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn and Vanderbilt outfielder J.J. Bleday as “the top two alternatives” if Rutschman doesn’t end up being the pick (plus, high schooler Bobby Witt Jr. also might be a possibility).
Two scouts on rival teams have told Mayo that the Orioles won’t select Rutschman, though Mayo notes, this could also be some of the gamesmanship every team deploys to create uncertainty about their selections. Still, Baltimore’s front office hasn’t given any indication about their plans in Mike Elias’ first draft as the team’s GM, and the linking of Rutschman to the O’s was more based on Rutschman’s high profile than it was on any reports coming out of Camden Yards.
A wealth of factors go into any draft pick, of course, especially one as important and potentially franchise-altering as a 1-1 selection. It’s worth remember that Elias was the Astros’ director of amateur scouting when the team made the then-surprising move to select Carlos Correa with the first overall pick of the 2012 draft. Mark Appel was widely tabbed as the top prospect of the 2012 class, though since Correa was willing to sign for a lesser bonus than the recommended slot price attached to the first overall pick, Correa ended up being the choice, giving the Astros more space in their draft pool to sign Lance McCullers Jr. for a larger bonus in the supplemental first round (41st overall).
We haven’t heard much about what Rutschman or some of this year’s top prospects are seeking in their first contracts, though if Vaughn or Bleday are willing to sign for less than the first overall pick’s recommended $8,415,300 slot price, that certainly be a point in their favor should Elias again look to spread his bonus pool money around on several top prospects.
Beyond just finances, of course, the O’s could also simply prefer Vaughn, Bleday, Witt, or another player to Rutschman for pure baseball reasons. The Astros received some criticism for being cheap when they took Correa over Appel, though time has clearly vindicated Houston’s strategy in that draft.
If Rutschman isn’t the top pick, it could greatly shake up the remainder of the first round. As a matter of due diligence, teams scout virtually all of the top prospects to prepare for just such an unexpected scenario, plus other teams could also be preparing to make outside-the-box situations. Callis and Mayo cite a number of interesting prospects within their piece, including an item on how high school third baseman Brett Baty’s stock could be on the rise, potentially to the Rangers (who have the #8 pick) or even the White Sox with the third overall choice. Vaughn, Baty, Bleday, and high schooler CJ Abrams have all been mentioned as being on Chicago’s radar, though these plans could again change should Rutschman or Witt be available when the White Sox are on the clock.
Orioles Option Stevie Wilkerson, Austin Wynns
Following today’s game, the Orioles have optioned INF/OF Stevie Wilkerson and catcher Austin Wynns to Triple-A Norfolk, per an official team release.
While a corresponding move will be officially announced on Tuesday, Roch Kubatko of MASN adds that Chance Sisco will likely rejoin the team to replace Wynns, with Chris Davis in position to come off the injured list ahead of Tuesday’s series opener in Texas.
In 123 plate appearances with the O’s, Wilkerson has posted a .250/.294/.438 slash line. Those are respectable numbers, especially for an inexperienced player on a rebuilding club, but his unimpressive 6:37 K:BB ratio calls for more seasoning in the minors. Meanwhile, Wynns has played just 15 games for the Orioles and has a .529 OPS in 47 plate appearances.
If it’s indeed Sisco who replaces Wynns on the roster, it will mark his 2019 season debut. He started this season in the minors after struggling through 2018 as a rookie; however, it appears that the 24-year-old catcher has turned a corner at Triple-A this year, boasting a robust .288/.381/.528 batting line thus far, a marked improvement over his numbers in previous stints at the level.
As for Davis, who is slated to make his return from the injured list, it’s unclear just how he will fit into the Orioles lineup upon his return to action. Trey Mancini has received the first base reps in Davis’s absence and has excelled with the bat, while the team would like to give promising youngster DJ Stewart an extended opportunity to play right field. And Renato Nunez, who has quietly emerged as one of baseball’s hottest hitters of late, currently occupies the DH spot and has done nothing to warrant a reduction in playing time.
In that aforementioned quartet, the Orioles have no fewer than four offense-heavy corner bats on the roster, a construction that could make it difficult for Brandon Hyde to allocate playing time. Davis, of course, is the highest-paid of the bunch, but perhaps also the least deserving of at-bats, based solely on production. With that in mind, it will be interesting to monitor Hyde’s handling of the 1B/DH logjam, especially as he attempts to navigate the challenges of managing a rebuilding team, striking a balance between youth and incumbent veterans like Davis.
Orioles Getting Help From Unexpected Bats
- While the Orioles have suffered from disastrous pitching, their everyday lineup has featured some unexpected bright spots, the Baltimore Sun’s Peter Schmuck writes. Names like Renato Nunez, Dwight Smith Jr., Pedro Severino, and Hanser Alberto were all acquired in unheralded fashion over the last year, yet all four have delivered decent to above-average production at the plate. Some of this could stem from a simple increase in playing time, as all four players are getting the chance at regular at-bats for the first time. Severino, whose .268/.351/.474 slash line through 112 PA dwarfs his previous output as a member of the Nationals, noted that “My job over there [in Washington] was to have the mentality to win the game and call a good game and not think about my offense….It was tough to play once a week and take one at-bat in the ninth inning against a good closer. That’s really tough.” It remains to be seen if any of this quartet will develop into long-term pieces for the rebuilding Orioles, though if nothing else, the O’s could have some extra trade chips to consider for the July 31st deadline.
Trade Candidate: Trey Mancini
As the Orioles begin what will be a lengthy rebuilding process, it’s fair to assume they’re open to offers on virtually any player on their roster with a modicum of Major League experience. This extends even to players like Trey Mancini, who under some circumstances would seem like a potential building block.
Mancini burst onto the scene with an impressive 2017 campaign before seeing his production drop to sub-replacement levels (-0.2 fWAR) in 2018. Aside from minor improvements to his swinging strike rate and walk rate, Mancini’s numbers dropped pretty much across the board in every major batting category from 2017 to 2018. This could be attributed to an old-fashioned sophomore slump as pitchers got a book on a young hitter, or perhaps Mancini suffered from the added mental stress of being caught up in the Orioles’ disastrous 115-loss season.
Perhaps the most telling number, however, was Mancini’s .285 BABIP in 2018. It marked a big decline from his .352 BABIP in 2017, which had a particularly deleterious effect on a player who had such extreme trouble keeping the ball off the ground. Mancini’s 52.9% ground-ball rate over the 2017-18 seasons was the sixth-highest total of any qualified player in that stretch, so when Mancini’s grounders weren’t sneaking through the infield with as much regularity, it had a significant impact on his production. This issue wasn’t a new one for Mancini, who also had high grounder rates throughout his minor league career.
Almost two months into the 2019 season, however, Mancini has done a much better job of driving the ball through the air. His grounder rate this season stands at only 38.3%, plus a .342 BABIP indicates that Mancini’s lesser number of ground balls are sneaking through the infield. Beyond just getting more good luck from the BABIP gods, Mancini’s 25.3% line drive rate, 36.4% fly ball rate, and 37.7% hard-hit ball rates are all career bests, and his .365 xwOBA is a virtual match for his .369 wOBA.
These underlying factors are a big reason why the 2019 version of Mancini is looking like a more sustainably productive player than the the 2017 model. The 27-year-old is hitting .295/.345/.529 with 10 home runs, a 128 wRC+ and 132 OPS + through 229 plate appearances. With this production looking up, Baltimore could decide now is the time to sell high on what could be its best position-player trade chip.
It’s worth noting, of course, that the Orioles are under no pressure to trade Mancini by July 31 — he isn’t eligible for arbitration until this coming offseason, meaning that he is under team control through the 2022 season. It also isn’t totally out of the question that the O’s hang onto Mancini altogether, though the club’s timeline for a return to contention doesn’t really fit Mancini’s age and skillset.
Over his two-plus seasons in the big leagues, Mancini has played 793 innings as a first baseman and 1808 2/3 innings as a corner outfielder, despite being drafted as a first baseman out of Notre Dame in 2013 and never seeing any outfield action over his four minor league seasons. With Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo holding down the first base/DH spots, the Orioles deployed Mancini in the outfield as a way of getting his bat into the lineup, with predictably subpar defensive results.
Mancini has a -12.9 UZR/150 and minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder, making him an ill fit at the position now, let alone in the future. He has been seeing more time at first base recently with Davis on the IL, and there’s really no reason for Baltimore to not continue playing Mancini at his original position going forward; he wouldn’t be the first player to take his hitting to another level after being relieved from a troublesome defensive situation.
While Orioles GM Mike Elias surely hopes he can have the club on track in shorter order, the fact remains that the O’s might still not be full-fledged contenders by the 2023 season, given the extensive nature of the team’s rebuild. At that point, Mancini will be in his age-31 season and in all likelihood a full-time first baseman/DH, making it a better bet that he will be starting into a decline phase just as the Orioles as a whole plan to be rising up.
Waiting for the winter to explore Mancini trades would theoretically expand Baltimore’s market for the young slugger, since dealing him now would limit the O’s to only contending teams….or would it? Mancini’s extra years of control make him an interesting option for teams who might be riding the fence between being a pure buyer or a pure seller. Mancini could fit on a team like the White Sox, who aren’t contenders this season but surely have an eye towards taking a step forward in 2020 (especially now that Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Lucas Giolito are all breaking out).
Holding off on a Mancini deal also carries risk beyond just the normal concerns of a potential dropoff. As we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams are putting less and less value on defensively-limited players and first base/DH types, no matter how big a bat they might be swinging. Nicholas Castellanos (a free agent this winter) has far less team control than Mancini, but is almost exactly the same age and a much more established MLB hitter, yet the Tigers have had no luck shopping Castellanos for over a year.
Plus, once the offseason hits and the free agent market opens, teams with a first base or corner outfield vacancy might prefer to just sign a productive veteran at a relatively low price rather than give up prospects to Baltimore for Mancini. This could open the door to a more immediate trade, as the urgency of a pennant race might encourage teams to give up some solid minor league talent for a quality bat like Mancini, with his years of control as a significant bonus.
Looking at teams who could fit as trade partners for Mancini, I considered both contenders and non-contenders (who were planning to be competitive sooner rather than later) with both outfield/first base needs for 2019 and longer-term needs at first base going forward. More teams could certainly emerge as injuries, slumps, and other factors impact this summer’s deadline business, though a few clubs stand out as possible candidates at the moment.
Astros: Mancini would help them now, though Houston isn’t exactly hurting for bats, and the Astros have several interesting young names (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) waiting in the wings.
Red Sox: Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are pending free agents, and J.D. Martinez could join them if he chooses to opt out of the final three years and $62.5MM on his contract. Boston’s first base spot has been seen as a potential eventual landing spot for either Rafael Devers or Michael Chavis, though those two emerging stars may end up at third base and second base, and prospect Bobby Dalbec may be at least a year away. A case can be made for the Red Sox to pursue Mancini at the deadline, though with JDM, Moreland, and Pearce all still in the fold, Boston is more likely to wait until the offseason to address its first base/DH situation.
Nationals: On paper, Washington fits since Ryan Zimmerman’s $18MM club option isn’t likely to be picked up for 2020. In practice, all the bad blood between the Nationals and Orioles stemming from the ongoing legal dispute over broadcast rights makes any sort of trade between the two Beltway rivals next to impossible.
White Sox: As mentioned earlier, Mancini could fit nicely into an emerging White Sox lineup. Yonder Alonso is unlikely to have his club option exercised, and Jose Abreu is slated for free agency at the moment (though the Sox certainly want to keep Abreu on the south side). If Abreu does stay, he and Mancini would provide a lot of pop from the first base/DH positions.
Mariners: Something of a similar case to the White Sox, as Seattle also aren’t contenders now, but their quest to “re-imagine” their roster wasn’t seen as a long-term endeavor. Edwin Encarnacion could himself be traded by the deadline, and if he does stay, the M’s are more likely to buy out his 2020 option for $5MM than exercise it for $20MM. The surprising Daniel Vogelbach has definitely slugged his way into Seattle’s 2020 plans, so he could join Mancini splitting time between first base and designated hitter. Jay Bruce is also likely to still be in the mix barring a trade, though Bruce’s presence wouldn’t stop GM Jerry Dipoto from picking up a player like Mancini.
Rangers: Between Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, and even top prospect Willie Calhoun, Texas already has multiple players who might be best suited for DH duty, and Ronald Guzman is still young and controllable at first base. Texas also doesn’t have a deep farm system, and might not be willing to meet Baltimore’s asking price for Mancini, or maybe even any team’s price tag on any notable midseason upgrade since the Rangers weren’t fully committing to contending this year. Nevertheless, the surprising Rangers are maybe an interesting outside-the-box candidate for Mancini since the team has stayed in the wild card race. Acquiring Mancini is both a go-for-it type of move, while also serving as a long-term piece. Mancini would also give Texas some much-needed right-handed lineup balance.
Brewers: Only two teams have received less bWAR from the first base position this season than Milwaukee, Jesus Aguilar’s breakout 2018 season has given way to some major struggles this year, while Eric Thames’ hot start has given way to an ice-cold May. It would be a bold move to see the Brewers move on entirely from Aguilar less than a year after his big season, though the club doesn’t have much margin for error in a tight NL Central race. Like Texas, the Brew Crew also doesn’t have a lot of minor league talent to spare in trades.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Orioles Sign Cuban Infield Prospect
- The Orioles have signed Cuban infielder Yorkislandy Alvarez, Francys Romero of Las Mayores tweets. Alvarez, who’s now 20, left the under-18 Cuban team in Montreal in 2017 and later moved on to Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, per Romero. Other than that, there is little to no information available on him.
