Tyler Wilson Signs With KBO’s LG Twins
Former Orioles righty Tyler Wilson has signed a one-year deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced (via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The Meister Sports Management client will take home $800K on a one-year deal, per Yoo.
The 28-year-old Wilson has spent parts of the past three seasons with the Orioles, totaling 145 1/3 innings but struggling to a 5.02 ERA with 4.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and an average fastball velocity of 89.9 mph in that time. Wilson showed promising ground-ball tendencies early in his MLB career and was adept at avoiding homers as well, but both of those trends rapidly went in the wrong direction with more exposure to big league hitters.
Those struggles led to a September DFA for Wilson in Baltimore, after which he was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. He elected to become a free agent at season’s end following his removal from the 40-man roster.
Wilson does carry a considerably more successful track record in Triple-A, where he’s logged a 3.99 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 across 302 innings in parts of four seasons. He’ll now earn considerably move overseas than he’d have taken home had he remained in North America on a minor league deal.
Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 arbitration projections are available right here.
Manny Machado had an off year this past season. His .259 average was well below his .284 career number. Unlike many other players this past season, he did not even set his personal home run record. He only had 33, slightly less than his totals for 2015 and 2016. However, with 95 RBI and 9 SB to tack onto his totals, Machado is projected for a $5.8 million raise up to a total salary of $17.3 million.
Part of the problem with determining the accuracy of the model in Machado’s case is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level in the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Machado as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.
For example, Chase Headley in 2013 is probably a decent comparable, even if his case is a little stale. He hit 31 HR with 115 RBI and batted .286, which bests Machado in AVG and RBI, but is similar to his HR total. With a $5.1 million raise, which would probably be somewhere between $6 and $6.5 million if we adjust for salary inflation, Headley could serve as a solid analog to Machado. However, if we think of Machado’s 33 HR as more like the equivalent of 25 HR in 2013, then Machado should clearly get less than Headley’s inflation-adjusted raise.
If we want a more recent comparable, we might want to consider Todd Frazier last year, who hit .225/40/98. With the league only experiencing a nine percent increase in HR relative to last year, Frazier might be a more legitimate comparable. He clearly had more HR, but a worse average. He only got a $3.75 million raise, which may suggest that the $5.8 million raise projected for Machado is too high.
Eric Hosmer hit .266/25/104 last year, so he could be a solid comparable as well. He received a $4 million raise, again far less than Machado’s projection. Of course, Hosmer is probably a floor with similar AVG and RBI and notably fewer HR. So maybe we want to consider Machado getting something north of $4 million.
I think it makes sense to view Hosmer’s raise as a floor on Machado, especially because of the large difference in defensive skill. While defense does not appear to make a big impact on arbitration at the model level, it obviously can in some cases. I would guess that it helps Machado move towards a raise closer to $5 million. That would still fall short of his projection, but probably puts him in striking distance of somewhere around $16-17 million.
AL Notes: Rangers, Darvish, Povse, Sisco
Thus far, the Rangers have mostly focused on open-market additions to their pitching staff. A turn to the trade market shouldn’t be expected, GM Jon Daniels tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. While there are a variety of enticing possible trade candidates floating around, Daniels says the organization is “making a concerted effort to be more disciplined and stay away from” moves that cost the team its “best young players.” Though the team’s top baseball decisionmaker wouldn’t rule out the trade avenue entirely, he said the team won’t be giving up notable future value for a short-term addition. Speaking of the Rangers’ moves to this point, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News solicited a scouting breakdown of the new arms brought onto the staff.
Here’s more from the American League:
- The Twins are “still trying to match schedules” to schedule a sit-down with free agent Yu Darvish, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). That’s somewhat odd to read at this stage of the winter; Darvish has already met with other teams, Minnesota has long labeled him a “priority,” and spring camp is just six weeks away. Nevertheless, at this point it seems little has changed in the situation: the Twins are still interested in the top-flight righty, though it’s difficult to determine a favorite in the Darvish sweepstakes. To that end, it’s worth noting that Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote today that Minnesota “appears … prepared to offer a market deal” for Darvish (though it stands to reason that an in-person meeting would precede such an offer). Bowden also notes that the Astros are still in the Darvish mix, in part due to concerns over their ability to sign Dallas Keuchel long term, and he cites multiple sources in reporting that the Rangers are still alive in the bidding for Darvish as well.
- Mariners righty Max Povse is heading back to a rotation role in 2018, as Greg Johns of MLB.com writes. While there had been some expectation that Povse would thrive as a multi-inning reliever, GM Jerry Dipoto says that the youngster’s move to the pen didn’t come with “the uptick in the stuff” the team hoped. That said, the organization still likes him as a starter. Dipoto says he was encouraged by Povse’s work in the AFL — he worked to a 4.56 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 25 2/3 innings — and takes the blame for pushing Povse into the upper minors and ultimately the majors as a reliever.
- Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines whether the Orioles might roll with young catcher Chance Sisco out of camp. Baltimore is still looking at veterans, though it seems the organization is resolved to rely primarily upon Caleb Joseph if Sisco doesn’t run away with the job. Assuming that any players acquired from outside the organization are mostly reserve/depth options, it could well come down to a camp battle. As Dubroff writes, the MLB coaching staff has not yet had an extended opportunity to see Sisco in action.
East Notes: Yelich, Realmuto, Marlins, Machado, Sox, Orioles
The Marlins continue to discuss center fielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto with other clubs, but there’s “nothing imminent” on the trade front, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Although the Marlins are in teardown mode, it would reportedly take a “huge overpay” for them to deal either Yelich or Realmuto, their two most valuable assets. The 26-year-old Yelich is controllable through 2022 on one of the majors’ most appealing contracts, while Realmuto (27 in March) is set to play his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns in 2018. Kyle Downing of MLBTR examined Yelich, Realmuto and the rest of Miami’s trade candidates over the weekend.
More on the Fish and a couple other East Coast franchises:
- Miami traded both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna earlier this offseason, thus subtracting a pair of in-their-prime sluggers who combined for a whopping 96 home runs in 2017. Now, with those two in other uniforms, the organization is “looking for guys who can provide power in the middle of the lineup,” vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, though, the Marlins aren’t competing for high-level free agents who would serve as short-term upgrades, per Frisaro, who writes that “their vision is more long range.”
- With the Red Sox still interested in acquiring Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, Ian Browne of MLB.com weighs in on a potential trade between the AL East rivals. Browne senses that the Red Sox don’t want to trade either shortstop Xander Bogaerts or center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason, but he concedes that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the former head to Baltimore as part of a Machado deal. The Red Sox would be losing two years of Bogaerts for a single season of control over Machado. As such, if Boston acquires Machado, it would make an aggressive push to re-up the superstar in order to prevent him from leaving as a free agent next winter, Browne adds.
- The Orioles still face a difficult path, all the more so given that the team will evidently be paying Zach Britton a full arbitration salary for what might be little more than a half season of work. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that, while the rotation market still hasn’t moved much, some of the arms from Baltimore’s potential target demographic are among those that have found new teams. Meanwhile, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com considers the question of whether the team will look to make second baseman Jonathan Schoop a part of a new long-term core — and, if so, how much it might cost to get something done.
AL Notes: Castellanos, Yankees, Orioles, Twins
The Tigers pursued an extension with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos “to no avail” following the 2017 season, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. The 25-year-old slugger (26 in March) posted a very solid .272/.320/.490 batting line in a breakout campaign at the plate and gave the Tigers room for further optimism; Castellanos ranked fifth in the Majors in hard-contact rate (among qualified hitters), and Statcast credited him for the 10th-highest number of barreled balls in MLB. He has a projected arbitration salary of $7.6MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and is still under club control for another two seasons. Defensive question marks abound with Castellanos, as he’s rated poorly both at third base and in right field, but there’s plenty of value in his bat. The inability to come to terms on an extension only furthers the chance that the rebuilding Tigers trade Castellanos before he reaches free agency.
A few more notes from around the AL…
- MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that the Yankees seem likely to bring in an infield option from outside the organization to man either second base or third base in 2018. Trades of Starlin Castro and Chase Headley freed those two spots up, and while Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar give the Yanks a pair of high-upside assets at those positions, some additional certainty and depth in a season with lofty expectations seems plenty reasonable. Per Hoch, the Yankees have been in touch with Todd Frazier, and it’s also possible that they explore a reunion with versatile Eduardo Nunez.
- The Orioles have historically been willing to wait out the free-agent market in search of bargains late in the winter, but they’ll have more company than usual in that regard this year, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette and his staff have had varying degrees of success in that regard, striking gold with a February signing of Nelson Cruz but also issuing regrettable deals to Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez. This time around, the Orioles will be looking to fill multiple spots in their rotation in addition to a left-handed bat. But, with just a handful of the top MLB free agents having agreed to deals, Baltimore’s typically patient approach may not be as fruitful as it has in the past.
- Though they’ve explored various trade scenarios, the Twins are likelier to address their rotation on the free-agent market, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes in his latest Twins Inbox piece. Minnesota has a blank payroll slate beyond the 2019 season, and Bollinger suggests that the front office would rather use those financial resources than deplete the farm system in order to add to the rotation. The Twins have been prominently mentioned as a possible landing spot for Yu Darvish, though it stands to reason that they’ve also likely looked into Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn as well.
International Notes: Choi, Senga, Yang
Happy New Year to all of our readers here at MLBTR! As MLB teams begin to gear up for what should be the most active January in hot stove history, here are a few notes on the international market…
- First baseman Ji-Man Choi‘s agency in Korea recently spoke to the media about their client’s current foray into free agency and revealed that he’s received offers (presumably of the minor league variety) from the Yankees, Angels, Rays, A’s, Brewers, Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Twins, Braves, Blue Jays and White Sox (English link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The 26-year-old Choi slugged a pair of homers in 18 plate appearances with the Yankees last year and posted a strong year with their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .288/.373/.538 in 87 games. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Choi has posted a robust .298/.390/.479 batting line.
- Right-hander Kodai Senga of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Nippon Professional Baseball is eyeing a jump to the Major Leagues down the line, per a report from the Japan Times (link in English). Senga, 25 next month, is currently negotiating a new contract with the Hawks, according to the report, so it doesn’t seem as though the move would happen until next offseason at the earliest. Next year will be Senga’s sixth full season in NPB, meaning he’ll have the pro experience and be old enough to be exempt from the international bonus pool system. However, he’d still be subject to the newly augmented posting system agreed to by MLB, NPB and the MLBPA. At present, Senga owns a career 2.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 418 innings. The righty moved from the bullpen to the rotation in 2016 and owns a 2.63 ERA in 47 starts over the past two seasons.
- Left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang has re-signed with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, Yoo writes in a second report. Set to turn 30 in March, Yang is fresh off an MVP season with the Tigers, having thrown 193 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in the hitter-friendly KBO. The southpaw has garnered interest from MLB teams in the past, though his KBO club did not accept the winning bid when he was initially posted for Major League teams back in the 2014-15 offseason. Yang, who has been pitching professionally since he was 19, now has enough experience to qualify as a true free agent without any restrictions but will nonetheless return to the KBO for a 12th pro season. His deal with the Tigers is worth $2.14MM, per Yoo, giving him the second-highest annual salary of any player in the KBO (behind former Mariners first baseman Dae-ho Lee).
American League Notes: Machado, Indians, Orioles
The Red Sox are “showing continued trade interest” in star Orioles infielder Manny Machado, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That said, it’s unclear just how strong a connection there may be between the division rivals. While not specifically referencing Morosi’s report, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that interest from Boston has been “overstated.” Overall, it’s hard to assess the current state of the Machado market; while a variety of organizations are no doubt still intrigued at the idea of a deal, there’s no real indication that there have been changes in the offers or the asking price.
Here’s more from the American League:
- While the Indians have pushed their payroll upwards in recent years, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal writes that the period of growth seems to be at an end. Despite attempting to re-sign Carlos Santana, it seems unlikely the organization will pursue any further major free agents after landing Yonder Alonso on a fairly modest two-year deal. Cleveland’s front office is obviously still looking to improve in the near-term, but sustainability is a key consideration as well.
- Regardless of what happens with Machado, the Orioles are still in need of a lefty bat, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. He explains that it still seems more likely the missing southpaw stick will arrive in the form of a corner outfielder. While the organization has engaged in “internal discussions” regarding Jon Jay, says Kubatko, it does not seem there’s real interest there. At this point, though, it does not seem as if there’s any real indication at all which way the O’s may go.
East Notes: Machado, Adonis Garcia, Marlins, Braves
The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder. As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.” Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now! Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day. For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.
- Though Venezuelan reporter Marcos Grunfeld tweeted yesterday that Braves third baseman Adonis Garcia has signed a contract with the LG Twins to play in Korea, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says “there have been discussions but [there is] no deal yet.” Garcia, 33 in April, was below replacement level in 52 games for the Braves this year.
- MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tackles questions from Marlins fans in his latest inbox. As of now, Frisaro expects Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto to be back with the team next year, though the team is “open to listening on everyone.” He notes that the Orioles are “known to have interest” in 29-year-old righty Dan Straily, who is under team control through 2020. Clearly, there is no urgency for the Marlins to deal controllable, affordable players like these.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com opens his Braves inbox, writing that “there is reason to believe Atlanta will use an abundance of funds to acquire another proven top-of-the-rotation starter via trade or free agency before the start of the 2019 season.” Looking at which starting pitchers will be available in free agency outside of possibly Clayton Kershaw, I agree with Bowman that a trade is the more likely route.
Quick Hits: Astros, Machado, Hamilton
In a dramatic and suspenseful article, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicles the recent harrowing life-or-death race to get Astros first base coach Rich Dauer to Houston Methodist Hospital. On the day of the Astros’ championship parade, Dauer was present at the official ceremony to honor the team. He began to stagger as if drunk, and stepped to the back of the stage. From there, a panicked attempt to get Dauer to the hospital amidst a crowd of millions of people unfolded behind the scenes. The piece is incredibly well-written, and thankfully has a happy ending. It’s definitely worth a full read.
More from around MLB as we approach the end of December…
- Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun wonders if this offseason’s drama surrounding Orioles star Manny Machado could have been avoided. Meoli takes a look at the chances the Orioles had to explore trades or a contract extension with their prized third baseman, but he ultimately comes to the conclusion that there was never a reason to trade him until now. It also seems as though by the time Machado was a safe fixture in the O’s lineup, his value was sky-high, and he was close enough to free agency that an extension didn’t make sense for him (or his agent). While it remains to be seen whether Baltimore will actually end up dealing Machado, Meoli’s piece sheds some light on a tough set of circumstances for the Orioles.
- The Giants and Reds have remained active in talks about a trade that would send Billy Hamilton to San Francisco, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Reds have reportedly shown interest in Heliot Ramos, who is largely considered to be the Giants’ best prospect (he credits The Athletic with first report of this news). Hamilton, of course, is regarded as one of the best defenders in the game, and also creates a lot of runs with his speed alone. His career .298 on-base percentage is widely regarded as his achilles heel, but he could still provide plenty of value as an elite center fielder in AT&T Park’s spacious outfield. A couple months back, I wrote about the trade market for Hamilton, noting that the Giants were the best match for his services.
AL Notes: Twins, Lindor, Orioles, Red Sox
The Twins are heartened by Miguel Sano‘s rehab from surgery to insert a titanium rod into his shin, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, but it’s still unlikely that Sano will log 150+ games at third base next season. Minnesota will still rely on Sano at the hot corner, but will rotate him between that position and DH, once again giving Eduardo Escobar reps at third as well. The ability to spell Sano and first baseman Joe Mauer with time at DH is one reason that the Twins aren’t looking to bring in a full-time DH, per Bollinger. “We saw the benefits of cycling guys through that spot last year,” said GM Thad Levine. “We’d like to keep the DH spot a little more fluid than lock somebody into it.” Minnesota, of course, has been linked to Mike Napoli, though he’d presumably open the year as more of a part-time DH against lefties than an everyday option at the position.
Elsewhere in the American League…
- In his latest inbox column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tackles a number of roster-focused questions pertaining to the Indians. Asked about the possibility of another run at extending Francisco Lindor, Hoynes suggests that over the course of Lindor’s remaining four years of control, the Indians will almost certainly make multiple attempts to extend their control over the young superstar. However, the fact that Lindor already rejected a nine-figure extension offer from Cleveland so early in his career could indicate that he’s likelier to test free agency when he is eligible. Hoynes also notes that left-hander and 2016 postseason hero Ryan Merritt will head to Spring Training out of minor league options and without a clear spot in the rotation. That could make Merritt available in trade (either this winter or in Spring Training) or point to a bullpen role — at least in 2018.
- The Orioles are not abandoning the hope that former outfielder Dariel Alvarez can successfully convert to a right-handed pitcher, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Alvarez, who had Tommy John surgery last April, will be in Orioles minicamp next month, where club officials can get a look at him and better gauge his rehab progress. Kubatko notes that the O’s still believe he can make it to the Majors. Kubatko also writes that there’s somewhat of a split camp, internally, on whether lefty David Hess will ultimately be a starter or reliever in the long run. Hess was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft after tossing 154 1/3 innings of 3.85 ERA ball with 7.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 30.7 percent ground-ball rate. The 24-year-old has been used almost exclusively as a starter to this point in his pro career, and given Baltimore’s utter dearth of rotation options, it seems likely that he’ll at least have the opportunity to continue developing in that capacity.
- Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe looks at the possibilities for the Red Sox as they seek to fill their DH spot. While president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has stated he’s content with the team’s offense as constructed, Abraham calls any such notion a mere “bargaining tactic.” Boston could conceivably add J.D. Martinez and relegate Hanley Ramirez to an overpriced platoon first baseman/bench bat, Abraham notes, and simply releasing him remains a possibility. While forgoing a splashy acquisition for the DH spot would leave more room for Dustin Pedroia to rest his knee and could create some at-bats for out-of-options outfielder Bryce Brentz, Boston has yet to augment a lineup that finished the 2017 season ranked 22nd in the Majors with a 92 wRC+, making the need for some form of upgrade fairly obvious.