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O’s Have Reportedly Reached Out To Tillman, Miley

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The Orioles have reached out to impending free agents Chris Tillman and Wade Miley to explore the possibility of retaining them on incentive-laden one-year contracts, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote earlier this morning that such an agreement with Miley seems unlikely and suggests that their talks may not have been especially recent. Talks with each free-agent-to-be are characterized as “preliminary” by Encina, if not “procedural.” Still, the Orioles need to add at least two arms this offseason, so even early talks with a pair of potentially outgoing rotation members are at least notable.

Tillman, 30 next April, has been a mainstay in the Baltimore rotation since 2013 but battled shoulder troubles en route to the worst performance of his career in 2017. Tillman’s season didn’t get started until mid-May after he was slowed by a bout of shoulder bursitis, and his subsequent struggles at one point cost him his spot in the Orioles’ struggling rotation. Overall, in 19 starts and five relief appearances, Tillman limped to a 7.84 ERA with a career-low 6.1 K/9 against a 4.9 BB/9 mark that rated as the second worst of his career.

Miley, 31 in two weeks, has a $12MM club option on his contract, though Baltimore is widely expected to instead pay a $500K buyout after a dismal 2017 campaign. The southpaw did notch the second-best K/9 mark of his career (8.12), but his 5.32 BB/9 was easily a career-worst. Miley’s HR/9 rate of 1.43 was also the highest of his career. Given the rapid ascent of his walk and home-run rates, as well as the 5.61 ERA he posted in 157 1/3 innings, it’s hardly a surprise that the O’s aren’t expected to pay that $11.5MM difference between his option and buyout to retain him.

MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko has recently reported that Miley would prefer a return to the National League, and Encina implies as much as well, calling a reunion with Tillman more likely than one with Miley. That said, it still strikes me as perhaps unlikely that Tillman would return on a deal with a “low base salary,” as Encina hears the Orioles have suggested. Though Tillman’s 2017 results were unsightly, last winter’s market saw names like Derek Holland and Tyson Ross — the latter of whom made just one appearance in 2016 — sign for $6MM bases. Andrew Cashner secured a $10MM guarantee on the heels of his own dreadful 2016 season, and he didn’t come with Tillman’s steady track record.

While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tillman sign a contract with plenty of incentives baked in, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have to settle for all that modest of a base salary when considering the guarantees attained by Holland, Ross, Cashner and aging veterans R.A. Dickey ($8MM) and Bartolo Colon ($12MM) last offseason.

Even Miley may not have to settle for all that low of a base; while he’s a year older and is coming off a pair of rough seasons, he’s also averaged 31.5 starts per season dating back to 2012 and has never made fewer than 29 starts in a season (with the exception of his rookie campaign in 2011, when he was called up to the Majors in late August and totaled 40 innings of work). Troublesome results aside, a club with a spacious home park in the National League could pay for his durability and hope to achieve better run-prevention numbers in a more pitcher-friendly environment.

If Tillman and Miley do ultimately land elsewhere this winter, it’s still likely that the O’s will land another pair of arms. GM Dan Duquette has been candid about his team’s needs in the rotation and voiced a preference to reel in at least one left-handed starter, which (speculatively speaking) could put names like Jaime Garcia, Jason Vargas, Hector Santiago and Francisco Liriano on the team’s free-agent radar.

With roughly $120MM on the books for next season (including projected arbitration salaries), the Orioles will have some room between that mark and 2017’s year-end payroll of roughly $166.6MM. But, adding two to three arms to the rotation and perhaps exploring some outfield and/or bullpen depth could also send that figure north in a hurry.

AL Notes: O’s, Cobb, Profar, Yankees

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With the Orioles looking to add multiple starters this offseason, they “most definitely will be keen observers” of impending free agent Alex Cobb’s market, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. However, the soon-to-be former Rays right-hander is likely to price himself out of Baltimore’s range, according to Kubatko. Meanwhile, Orioles left-hander Wade Miley is hoping to return to the National League after the team declines his $12MM option in favor of a $500K buyout, Kubato hears. The majority of Miley’s success has come in the NL, where he began his career with the Diamondbacks and pitched from 2011-14.

A bit more from the American League…

  • Rangers infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar could draw offseason trade interest from the Reds, Padres and other teams, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes. The Reds scouted Profar “at length” when he was at Triple-A this season, per Grant, who notes that Padres general manager and ex-Rangers executive A.J. Preller is already familiar with the former top prospect. The switch-hitting Profar, 24, spent most of 2017 in the minors, where he hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 plate appearances. He has been far less successful across 718 career major league PAs, having batted .229/.309/.329. Thanks to his underwhelming performance with the Rangers and his out-of-options status, Profar looks like a strong trade candidate heading into the winter.
  • The Yankees may hire a new head of player development before finding ousted manager Joe Girardi’s replacement, George A. King III of the New York Post relays. The club has been on the hunt for a new player development boss since Gary Denbo departed to take a job with the Marlins on Oct. 9. Thus far, New York has interviewed four in-house candidates to succeed Denbo – Kevin Reese (director of professional scouting), Eric Schmitt (director of minor league operations), John Kremer (director of performance science) and Carlos Mendoza (field coordinators) – King reports.

Orioles To Re-Sign Luis Sardinas

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The Orioles struck a minor-league deal to re-sign infielder Luis Sardinas, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. He had played with the club on a minors deal in 2017.

Sardinas, who’s still just 24 years of age, landed in Baltimore late in May via waiver claim. He had opened the year with the Padres, struggling to a .163/.226/.163 slash in 53 plate appearances to open the season. The O’s promptly outrighted him to Triple-A Norfolk.

Things went better at the plate for Sardinas after the move. He posted a .319/.348/.419 batting line and hit five home runs (a personal best) in his 331 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

If he can sustain palatable offensive numbers, Sardinas could be a useful piece given his highly regarded glove. Perhaps there’s still hope his bat will come around at some point, but Tim Beckham will have first dibs on the shortstop job in Baltimore. For now, the O’s will likely consider Sardinas as a utility candidate in Spring Training.

AL Notes: Astros, Sabathia, Rays, Odorizzi, Orioles

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Yankees hitters looked helpless against Astros pitchers Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday, and part of the credit for that goes to Houston’s reliance on analytics, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic explains (subscription required and recommended). New York’s fastball-hitting offense had its way at times during a three-game home romp over Houston in the middle of the series, prompting the Astros’ analytics department to suggest the team’s pitchers throw more breaking balls. Morton and McCullers did just that in a 4-0 victory on Saturday, combining for 62 curveballs on 108 pitches. Incredibly, McCullers finished the game with 24 curves in a row to cap off four dominant innings. Afterward, pitching coach Brent Strom told Rosenthal: “I’ve got to hand this to our analytics people. “They said, ’Listen, this is where we’re making our mistakes. We need to throw as many curveballs as possible. This is a good fastball-hitting team.'”

  • Left-hander CC Sabathia, the losing pitcher in Game 7 of the ALCS, made it clear to reporters on Saturday that his preference is to continue with the Yankees – not depart in free agency – per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. “This is where I want to play,” said the 37-year-old Sabathia, who has revived his career over the past couple seasons and is fresh off a four-start playoff run in which he pitched to a 2.37 ERA across 19 innings. The 2017 season was the ninth with the Yankees for Sabathia, who just wrapped up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011.
  • The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.
  • Adding more left-handed hitters to balance out a righty-heavy lineup will be one of the Orioles’ most important offseason challenges, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s projected lineup for 2018 includes just two lefty-swingers, first baseman Chris Davis and catcher Chance Sisco. Another could come in the form of an outfielder, suggests Encina, who names Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson as a few of several potential targets in free agency.

AL East Notes: Rays, Jones, Tanaka

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In a fascinating article about the potential of a new Rays ballpark in Tampa Bay, Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times gives insight into property trading as a method for acquiring land on which to build a new stadium. The mechanism is fairly simple at its core; Hillsborough County would trade parcels of valuable government-owned land near the downtown area to private property owners in exchange for their land in the Channel District-Ybor City area, where the county would like to build a new stadium. County Attorney Chip Fletcher confirmed with the Tampa Bay Times that the county is looking into these trades as a way to lower the cost of acquiring new property for a ballpark. Contorno’s piece offers a deep look into all the factors the county must consider when deciding whether this method truly makes sense from a business perspective. Rays fans (and Tampa Bay taxpayers) might enjoy learning about the complexities of the situation Hillsborough County faces.

More from around the American League’s Eastern Division…

  • While much has been made of stud third baseman Manny Machado’s potential exit from the Orioles after 2018, Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines the situation of another O’s icon in his final year; center fielder Adam Jones. Jones has manned center for ten consecutive years in Baltimore, thanks to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that made Dan Duquette’s front office look brilliant. Because Jones is a leader in the clubhouse and current franchise icon, Dubroff places a heavy weight on the decision Baltimore faces in whether or not to retain him. Jones has been worth 28.8 fWAR as a member of the Orioles’ organization, compiling 248 home runs and 802 RBI across 6,221 plate appearances while posting a .279/.319/.468 slash line, good for 109 wRC+. As of right now, the only guarantees the Orioles have on the books beyond 2018 are those of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day, the latter two of whom become free agents after the 2019 season.
  • Is Masahiro Tanaka pitching his way off the Yankees roster? That’s the question Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked on Friday. Within three days of the conclusion of the World Series, Tanaka can choose to opt out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. The former Japanese star is strengthening his value with each of his elite postseason starts so far in 2017, but his case for a larger contract goes beyond the postseason alone. While Sherman opines that Tanaka was expected not to opt out before October, that notion seems to entirely ignore the right-hander’s elite second half. After the All-Star break, Tanaka posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP, with a wicked 10.73 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9. Strong peripheral stats, such as a 2.83 xFIP, point to Tanaka being one of the AL’s best starters during that span. Questions remain about the health of his elbow and his ability to keep the ball in the park, but as things stand right now, it seems likely that Tanaka could earn more than $67MM if he were to opt out and test the open market.

Hyun Soo Kim On MLB Future

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Outfielder Hyun Soo Kim returned to his native South Korea upon conclusion of the regular season and met with the media to discuss what was, in his own words, a “disappointing” second season in the Majors (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). Despite a rough campaign split between the Orioles and the Phillies, the 29-year-old Kim made it clear that his hope is to secure another opportunity to prove himself in the Major Leagues.

“It’s not something I can control,” Kim told reporters. “Obviously, I’d love to stay in the majors. But I felt my determination alone can’t do the trick. I’ll just try to do the best I can.”

Kim signed a two-year, $7MM contract with the Orioles in the 2015-16 offseason on the heels of an amazing nine-year career in the Korea Baseball Organization. In 4768 plate appearances with the KBO’s Doosan Bears, Kim batted .318/.406/.488 with 142 home runs, earning the nickname “The Hitting Machine” along the way. That nickname looked rather appropriate after Kim’s first season in Baltimore; he slashed a hearty .302/.382/.420 with six homers, 16 doubles and a triple in 346 plate appearance with the Orioles.

Kim, though, was shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitching in the Majors, and a slow start to the 2017 season (plus Trey Mancini’s early breakout) led to even more inconsistent playing time. He hit just .232/.305/.288 in 141 PAs with the O’s before being traded to the Phillies in late July — largely as a means of offsetting some of the salary of Jeremy Hellickson, who went from Philadelphia to Baltimore in that deal.

Playing time was even more scarce for Kim in Philadelphia, as the Phillies were evaluating younger options such as Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Rhys Hoskins in the outfield corners throughout the season’s second half. Ultimately, Kim’s sophomore campaign in the Majors produced a paltry .231/.307/.292 triple slash.

Kim took ownership of his struggles when speaking to the Korean media, though he did indicate that his part-time/platoon usage was a role to which he had a difficult time adjusting. “It was frustrating when I’d get three hits one day and sit on the bench the next day,” Kim admitted. “But it’s all on me. I just didn’t have it.”

Kim didn’t dismiss the notion of accepting a minor league contract when asked about a possible return to the Majors, but he noted that it would depend on the composition of the interested team’s roster. His time in Philadelphia made clear to him that at-bats will be difficult to come by on an up-and-coming team that is rife with outfield prospects ready for big league evaluation. A clearer path to playing time than the one he had in Philadelphia sounds as if it’ll be important to Kim when weighing offers this winter.

If there are ultimately no offers to his liking, it stands to reason that he would draw widespread interest from KBO clubs in free agency. But, Kim is still relatively young — he’ll play all of next season at the age of 30 — and is just a year removed from a 116 OPS+ and 120 wRC+ in nearly 350 MLB plate appearances. He’s demonstrated solid plate discipline and contact skills in the Majors as well, walking in 9.9 percent of his plate appearances while striking out at a 16.6 percent clip. While his defense didn’t grade out well in left field, there’s still reason to believe he could be a productive bat — at least in the same platoon capacity he had with the O’s in 2016.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/19/17

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Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve signed first baseman/outfielder Joe Maloney to a minor league contract. The 27-year-old Maloney was a 10th-round pick of the Rangers out of Division II Limestone College back in 2011. Texas cut him loose after an underwhelming age-22 season in 2013, but Maloney parlayed a solid two-year stretch with the Rockland Boulders of the independent Can-Am League into a 2016 minor league stint with the Twins. Maloney returned to the indy circuit in 2017, again suiting up for Rockland but this time posting a ridiculous .282/.359/.638 batting line and 35 homers (429 plate appearances) en route to league MVP honors. The O’s are thin on first base options in the upper levels of their minor league system, so Maloney could factor into that mix in 2018.

Orioles Notes: Miley, Rotation, Lineup, Farm System

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There was a “legitimate possibility” of the Orioles exercising Wade Miley’s $12MM club option for the 2018 season before a late collapse, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun, but the team now looks likely to buy that option out for $500K. Baltimore will be on the hunt for a left-handed starter this winter, but as Encina points out, the free-agent market is hardly rife with appealing options. Most of the lefties available are reclamation projects or back-of-the-rotation starters, with 35-year-old Jason Vargas and 37-year-old CC Sabathia representing the southpaws that enjoyed the most success in 2017. Encina notes that the weak crop of lefty starters may force the O’s to really evaluate whether they’d like to “balance” out their all-right-handed rotation or simply set their sights on overall quality regardless of handedness. Of course, it should be noted that even the offseason crop of right-handed starters carries more question marks than sure things, and the O’s will need to add a minimum of two starters. Suffice it to say, GM Dan Duquette will have his work cut out for him.

More out of Baltimore…

  • The O’s don’t look likely to make any significant additions to their lineup, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Catcher Welington Castillo is expected to decline his modest $7MM player option on the heels of a terrific all-around season, but Baltimore may simply hand catching duties over to top prospect Chance Sisco and Caleb Joseph. In the outfield, Adam Jones will return in center field, with Trey Mancini and young Austin Hays the favorites to work in the corners. (Mark Trumbo, then, would be the DH.) However, Kubatko does note that Hays, a 2016 third-rounder who skyrocketed through the system, won’t merely be handed a job. Inferring a bit, that’d suggest that the O’s could add a veteran outfield option to push Hays and possibly handle some corner work early in the year of Hays proves to need more development time.
  • While the Orioles’ farm has long been ranked among the bottom minor league systems in the game, they’ve made some significant progress in that regard as of late, writes MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski. Melewski spoke to MLB.com’s Jim Callis and both J.J. Cooper and John Manuel of Baseball America in recent weeks, with each suggesting that the Orioles now rate more as a middle-of-the-pack farm (in the 15 to 20 range throughout MLB). The improvements come largely based on Hays’ breakout and the presence of Sisco, both of whom will likely exhaust their rookie status early in the 2018 season. But 2017 first-rounder DL Hall, 2015 supplemental rounder Ryan Mountcastle and a once-again healthy Hunter Harvey have helped bolster the top end of the farm for the time being. There’s still a lack of pitching help in the upper levels, however — an element that is particularly troublesome given the current state of the big league roster.

AL East Notes: Sox Payroll, Chili, Yanks’ Rotation, McKinney, O’s

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Whatever the Red Sox may prefer, the odds are that the organization will again go over the luxury tax line in 2018, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains. Indeed, with a hefty arbitration class set to land on top of an already robust set of guaranteed contracts, the team will enter the offseason without much hope of improving unless it’s willing to exceed the $197MM luxury tax line. Of course, the club reset its luxury tax status by staying under the 2017 mark, which reduces the penalty for going back over (but would also begin a new climb upward in the escalating tax scheme).

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • As the Red Sox continue looking into candidates for the team’s open managerial position, the team is allowing its coaches to look into their own alternatives. Well-regarded hitting coach Chili Davis is set to visit with the Padres, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (Twitter links). San Diego parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter, leaving the club looking at alternatives. Of course, it’s still also possible that a new Boston manager would prefer to keep Davis or certain other members of the staff, but the staff is now free to make its own decisions at this stage.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post posits a scenario in which the Yankees can obtain quite a strong rotation next year without any massive new investments. Of course, doing so would depend not only upon achieving some notable strokes of good market luck but also upon the organization getting the best versions of some pitchers that have had their ups and downs. Most interestingly, Sherman says the “general sense” is that Masahiro Tanaka will not opt out of the three years and $67MM left on his deal. While that’s hardly cheap and still carries obvious risk, it seems like an appealing price tag for a pitcher of his pedigree, given his late-season rebound. Sherman’s most optimistic version of a 2018 staff also includes Shohei Otani, whose destination is anyone’s guess at this stage. All things considered, though, the Yanks’ roation situation does seem much better than might have been anticipated entering the year, due largely to the surge of Luis Severino and emergence of Jordan Montgomery.
  • Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying prospect Billy McKinney out at first base in the Arizona Fall League, Bill Mitchell writes for Baseball America, though he’ll also continue primarily to be an outfielder. As Mitchell notes, McKinney showed better than ever after finally reaching the Triple-A level midway through the 2017 season. The 23-year-old slashed .306/.336/.541 with ten home runs in his 224 plate appearances there, though he also walked just four percent of the time (well below his usual rate) and carried a .353 batting average on balls in play that likely reflects both good contact and some fortune. It’ll be interesting to see when and how McKinney is utilized at the MLB level, but he could factor into the team’s depth considerations for the season to come or potentially be dangled as a trade candidate.
  • Though the Orioles will obviously need to bring in some new players if they hope for a return to contention, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports writes that the team also must receive improvements from within if it hopes to compete. Consistent production from key players was elusive in 2017, which failed to create a base of output sufficient to maintain a winning record. Even with expectations of some bounceback performances, though, the roster will surely be in need of supplementation; MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down the possibilities.

East Notes: Yankees, Sox, Nats, Orioles

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With the Yankees intent on getting under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if they’ll shop relievers Dellin Betances and Adam Warren in the offseason. While the two, especially Betances, are high-end bullpen options, the Yankees may not want to spend the projected $7.5MM on the pair given that their relief corps would still be loaded without one or both. Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle will stick around next season, and all four of them are currently ahead of Betances and Warren in the Yankees’ late-game pecking order. Both Betances and Warren are likely to file for larger arbitration requests than their projected figures, Sherman notes, which could be especially interesting in the former’s case. After all, the relationship between Betances and the Yankees took a sour turn during the arbitration process last winter.

  • Landing a big bat, adding depth in their rotation and middle infield, and finding another setup man could be on the Red Sox’s offseason to-do list, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. Regarding Boston’s power-needy offense, which we touched on earlier today, Jennings lists impending free agents J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jay Bruce as possible fits.
  • The Nationals’ playoff trip this year ended in more disappointment for the franchise, but manager Dusty Baker’s return still looks likely, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The future of Baker, who doesn’t have a contract for next year, is one of the biggest offseason questions facing the Nationals, opines Janes. In terms of their roster, the Nats will have to make decisions on whether to re-sign impending free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, whether to upgrade behind the plate and in the rotation, and how to assemble their bench, Janes adds.
  • The Orioles’ coaches will see their contracts run out at the end of the month, but the team still hasn’t made a final decision on Buck Showalter’s staff for next season, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. If Showalter has his way, all of his assistants – including beleaguered pitching coach Roger McDowell – will return, per Kubatko. However, general manager Dan Duquette didn’t rule out changes when speaking to reporters on the final day of the season. “All those things with the coaches and the staffing, all those things need to be addressed, and I think you have to look carefully at them when you don’t have a strong year and see if there are some adjustments that you can make,” Duquette said.
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