Orioles Rumors

Orioles Don’t Make Qualifying Offer To Matt Wieters

By Jeff Todd | November 7, 2016 at 4:13pm CDT

The Orioles have made a qualifying offer to slugger Mark Trumbo but have passed on the chance to do the same with catcher Matt Wieters. Baltimore’s decision on Trumbo was reported by Roch Kubtko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter), with Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) reporting on the decision not to extend the $17.2MM, single-season offer to Wieters. (Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball first tweeted that it was unlikely Wieters would receive the qualifying offer.)

Trumbo represented an easy call after he launched a league-leading 42 home runs. The 30-year-old continues to strike out a ton and isn’t much of an on-base threat — he ran up a .316 OBP last year and sits at just .303 for his career. He’s also a dreadful defender in the outfield, though he generally rates well at first and delivers enough power to represent a regular DH option. Ultimately, the long ball plays well in free agency, and he’s young enough that he ought to find multiple years in free agency even after declining the QO (as is widely expected).

It was a somewhat trickier call with regard to Wieters, long the franchise’s top backstop. Baltimore was surprised when he took the QO last year, but perhaps wasn’t too disappointed with the chance to retain him on a one-year commitment. The immediate outlook still cries out for a veteran receiver — prospect Chance Sisco probably isn’t ready, and Caleb Joseph had a terrible 2016 season — but that doesn’t mean the club is interested in taking on that kind of salary this time around.

Wieters, 30, struggled through what may be his final year with the O’s. The switch hitter ended with a .243/.302/.409 slash line over 464 plate appearances. Though he did hit 17 home runs, he fell well shy of the above-average offensive numbers he posted in prior years. Wieters also didn’t receive strong framing reviews, though he was solid with his arm by measure of Baseball Prospectus.

Still, without the QO weighing him down, Wieters will have a chance at a strong, multi-year deal in free agency. With Wilson Ramos injured, Wieters and Jason Castro are probably the top two candidates for teams looking to fill in immediately behind the dish.

AL East Links: Rays, Longoria, Orioles, Hobgood, Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2016 at 1:03pm CDT

Some news and notes from around the AL East…

“When you only win 68 games, you’re open to everything,” Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “Everything” doesn’t quite extend to Evan Longoria, as Topkin writes that the team doesn’t have any interest in trading the longtime face of the franchise. The Rays head into the GM Meetings and the offseason in general with many needs, with Silverman saying that the club will primarily rely on trades to fill those needs (no surprise, given Tampa’s usual reluctance to spend big on free agents).
The Orioles’ search for a new pitching coach continues, as the team interviewed Double-A pitching coach Alan Mills this past week, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. The O’s are also interested in former Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell and Cardinals minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque.
Also from Kubatko’s piece, he reports that former Orioles first-rounder Matt Hobgood is trying to restart his career as a hitter. Hobgood, picked fifth overall in the 2009 draft, managed only 325 innings over parts of six pro seasons in the minors, as shoulder problems continually kept him off the mound. Hobgood still has a long ways to go in order to get properly re-acclimated to hitting, though at age 26, he doesn’t yet want to give up on his baseball dream.
With a number of first basemen and designated hitters on the free agent market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith argues that the Blue Jays could be in no rush to fill the potential hole left by Edwin Encarnacion. Since the Jays can offer a spot on a contender and playing time in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they’re an attractive option for many 1B/DH types, which presents the possibility of Toronto landing a big bat at perhaps a bargain price. Nicholson-Smith also posits that the Jays could pursue Ian Desmond, Steve Pearce or Sean Rodriguez to fill their need for versatility. Among more outside-the-box ideas, Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could try to acquire J.D. Martinez from the Tigers, or take advantage of the thin pitching market by listening to offers on “anyone this side of Aaron Sanchez,” with Joe Biagini perhaps ready to step into the rotation if another starter is dealt.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/4/16

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2016 at 11:00pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

The Orioles declined the team’s previously unknown option over righty Logan Ondrusek, as BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly was among those to tweet. Ondrusek had signed with the Orioles out of Japan in the middle of the 2016 season, but was outrighted in late August after a brief stint. It was essentially a formality at this point for the team to decline the option (which was for an unknown amount). Baltimore had hoped that adding Ondrusek would represent a creative way to bolster their relief corps in the middle of the season, and brought him back stateside after he continued to produce good results for the NPB’s Yakult Swallows.
The Reds announced that utilityman Ivan De Jesus has been outrighted off of the 40-man roster. He has been a fairly significant part of the major league team over the last two years, playing in 180 total games. But his batting output dwindled in 2016: despite a slightly higher batting average and identical .311 OBP in comparison to his 2015 line, De Jesus slugged only .312 in his 243 plate appearances.
Two recently outrighted Mariners — lefty Charlie Furbush and catcher Steve Clevenger — have both elected free agency rather than accepting a minor league assignment, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns. The team is still waiting to learn what righty Ryan Cook will do; he, too, was recently cut from the 40-man.
Lefty Ricky Romero will remain with the Giants on a minor league deal, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (via Twitter). Soon to tun 32, Romero is now well removed from his days as an effective major league starter. He only appeared in two games in 2016, both at the Triple-A level, and has thrown just 53 2/3 total innings professionally since 2013 — the last season in which he reached the big leagues.
The Yankees selected the contracts of catcher Kyle Higashioka and right-hander Domingo German, adding them to thee 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. Though he’s already 26, and has been Rule 5-eligible before, Higashioka is coming off of his most promising season as a professional. Over 416 plate appearances at Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed .276/.337/.511 with 21 home runs. Meanwhile, the 24-year-old German pitched last year at the Class A and High-A level after missing all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery. He ended up starting ten games and posting a 3.81 ERA over 49 2/3 innings, with 6.9 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, but will look to get fully back on his promising track next year.

Earlier Updates

The Tigers announced that they have selected the contracts of right-hander Myles Jaye and left-hander Chad Bell from Triple-A Toledo. The 24-year-old Jaye split the 2016 season between Detroit’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, working to a combined 3.95 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 53.3 percent ground-ball rate in 161 2/3 innings (28 starts). MLB.com ranks Jaye as Detroit’s No. 26 prospect, writing that he has a 91-93 mph and a solid three-pitch mix but also noting that he lacks an out pitch. Their report pegs his ceiling as a fourth or fifth starter and says he’s not far from Major League readiness. Meanwhile, the 27-year-old Bell posted a 3.29 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 52 percent ground-ball rate in 98 1/3 innings at Triple-A between the Rangers and Tigers organizations. Detroit picked him up from Texas in the May trade that sent catcher Bobby Wilson to the Rangers. Bell worked more as a reliever than a starter and held opposing lefties to a .605 OPS, including a .286 slugging percentage. He’ll join Kyle Ryan, Blaine Hardy and Joe Mantiply as options to serve as a second lefty behind Justin Wilson in Detroit’s bullpen next year.

NL East Notes: WBC, Nats, Gonzalez, Blevins, Braves

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2016 at 11:03pm CDT

For those of you looking for some rain delay reading during one of the craziest games in World Series history, here are a few notes from the NL East…

Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper isn’t likely to participate in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, but ace Max Scherzer is open to the idea, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The WBC provides players with an opportunity to represent their country on a global stage but can be a source of scrutiny as well due to the enhanced risk of injury and, in pitchers’ cases, the increased workload they face when voluntarily adding some intense innings to their schedule before the regular season even gets underway.
Janes also writes that the Nationals are likely to exercise their $12MM club option on lefty Gio Gonzalez. That doesn’t come as a significant surprise, as the free-agent market is devoid of starting pitching talent and, as she notes, Gonzalez would figure to command multi-year offers if he reached the open market. Furthermore, his contract contains a vesting option for the 2018 season, so he has two years of club control remaining, so long as he reaches 180 innings pitched in 2017. That’s no sure thing for Gonzalez, who is prone to abbreviated outings and high pitch counts. Those factors and the Nats’ bevy of young arms could prompt the team to explore the trade market for Gonzalez if they decide they’d like to move on, Janes notes, but I’d have to agree that simply declining his option makes little sense even if the team’s preference is to get younger.
The Mets would like to have Jerry Blevins back in 2017 and covet a veteran lefty specialist to complement southpaws Josh Smoker and Josh Edgin, per ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, but team officials expect that the 33-year-old Blevins will find a fairly lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter. Blevins was effective in 2016, tossing 42 innings of 2.79 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 45.8 percent ground-ball rate while earning a $4MM salary. A multi-year pact does indeed seem possible for the lefty in spite of some curious reverse platoon splits. The .258/.313/.324 line that Blevins yielded to lefties appears to be largely driven by a .368 BABIP from same-handed opponents, and the .637 OPS that he surrendered is hardly a robust mark anyhow.
The Braves have hired Orioles bullpen coach Dom Chiti as their new senior director of pitching, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links). Atlanta is also adding former O’s pitching coach Dave Wallace, per Kubatko. Wallace will function as a roving instructor throughout the team’s minor league system. Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that Wallace signed a two-year deal with the Braves and adds that the loss is notable for the Orioles organization, pointing out that Zach Britton credits the duo with his development into the dominant closer he has become.

Free Agent Notes: Cespedes, Wieters, Tolleson

By Jeff Todd | November 1, 2016 at 10:45am CDT

Things remain quiet as the World Series draws to a close, but here are a few recent notes on the free agent market:

While some analysts and fans think there’s a match to be made between the Giants and top expected free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, we haven’t heard any firm reports connecting those dots. And there may not be reason to do so, according to Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (via Twitter), who labels any link “outside speculation based on apparent need.” Of course, it would be surprising if San Francisco didn’t at least consider such a move, given the team’s opening in left field and middle-of-the-road offensive output in 2016. But whether the organization will undertake a real pursuit seems unclear at this point.
The Orioles are still undecided on whether to issue catcher Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. At present, the sense is the team will let him reach the market unhindered, says Kubatko, which would match the consensus recommendation of MLBTR readers (per a recent poll). There’s certainly an argument to be made that a one-year, $17.2MM commitment wouldn’t be a terrible outcome, though, and Kubatko says he doesn’t think Wieters would again take the QO, which would net the club a draft pick if he signed elsewhere.
Righty Shawn Tolleson is open to a return with the Rangers despite being cut loose recently, as MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports. Poor performance, bad luck, and a back injury conspired to create a lackluster 2016 campaign for Tolleson after he entered the year as the club’s closer. While he’ll surely be looking for the best opportunity available, and says he’s allowing his agent to lead the charge, Tolleson noted that he is “not closing any doors” and won’t let the disappointing ending prevent him from returning to Texas. The 28-year-old, who turned in strong efforts in 2014 and 2015, added that he is back to full health after rehabbing his back strain and has been cleared for “a normal offseason.”

Heyman’s Latest: CBA, Orioles, Rangers, Jays, Rockies

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 8:45am CDT

Commissioner Rob Manfred expressed optimism about negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement earlier this month, and players’ association executive director Tony Clark did the same Saturday, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. “I’ve always been a glass half-full guy. We continue to work. We continue to go through the issues,” said Clark, who didn’t reveal if the draft-pick compensation attached to the qualifying offer will remain the same in the next CBA. In the current agreement that’s set to expire in December, a team receives a first-round pick if it issues a QO to an impending free agent and he then signs elsewhere.

AL Notes: Indians, Britton, Rangers

By Jeff Todd | October 27, 2016 at 9:46pm CDT

Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke with the media about the Indians’ use of the Chief Wahoo logo, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post was among those to report. Manfred said that he plans to discuss the usage of the logo with the team’s owner, Paul Dolan, after the season. The depiction is “offensive to some people,” said Manfred, “and all of us at Major League Baseball understand why.” Though he certainly hinted that the league would like to see a change, Manfred did stress that it was “primarily a local matter,” saying that “it’s not easy as coming to the conclusion and realizing that the logo is offensive to some segment.”

Here are a few more notes from the American League:

Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com wonders whether the Orioles could get creative with the increasingly expensive, but also increasingly dominant lefty Zach Britton. The club seems set to hold onto Britton and maintain his role as the closer in 2017, notes Kubatko. But he suggests the team could consider a trade, an extension, or even a return to the rotation for the 28-year-old. That last option would come with considerable upside, but also quite a bit of risk. Britton didn’t succeed in the majors until he moved to the pen — following a roughly similar trajectory to Andrew Miller — and Kubatko adds that the team has some questions about his durability in a rotation role.
Dealing Britton or star third baseman Manny Machado wouldn’t make sense for the Orioles, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com opines. While the club has only two years of control remaining over these two elite players, and could surely obtain an impressive haul of prospects for either, Melewski argues that the roster is set up to keep pushing to win over 2017-18.
Apart from adding a starter, the Rangers’ priority this winter is to find a center fielder, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort-Worth Star Telegram writes. Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez both are candidates to return after their stints in Texas, with GM Jon Daniels noting that “they have kind of a similar profile.” Indeed, there are quite a few similarities, extending from their eye-popping tool sets to some inconsistencies in production. The GM offered praise for both, noting that Gomez is more experienced playing center while Desmond — who he says he “spent a lot more time around” — impressed him greatly “as a person and [with] the consistency he brought from that standpoint.” Presumably, Texas will also at least consider other options, including Dexter Fowler and potential trade candidates.

AL Notes: Mariners, Moncada, Zimmer, Orioles

By Steve Adams | October 26, 2016 at 12:11pm CDT

Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune writes that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has a hard-throwing lefty reliever — “a legit late-inning presence” — on his offseason wishlist. It’s not the first time that Dutton has reported Seattle’s interest in adding such an arm to its relief mix, and a flamethrowing southpaw would indeed be an imposing complement to sensational rookie Edwin Diaz late in the game. Previously, Dutton noted that the team’s search wasn’t likely to be focused on Aroldis Chapman, whose free-agent price tag will be staggering. The trade market may not be flush with readily available late-inning southpaws, though from a purely speculative standpoint I’d personally wonder if Seattle might match up with San Diego in a deal for either Brad Hand or Ryan Buchter. While neither possesses the velocity of a Chapman or Andrew Miller, each sat at better than 92 mph with his heater this season (92.8 mph for Hand) and delivered a breakout season. Hand proved capable of pitching multiple innings while also showing better control and ground-ball tendencies than his teammate — ultimately tossing 89 1/3 frames with a 2.92 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent ground-ball rate.

A few more notes from around the American League…

Red Sox prospect Yoan Moncada suffered a thumb injury while batting in the Arizona Fall League recently, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Moncada didn’t suffer any fractures but has been out for a few days already and could undergo further testing today. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tells Drellich that while it’s the same hand that Moncada has injured in the past, the issue isn’t believed to be serious at this time. Maintaining his health will be a key for Moncada as he looks to force his way back onto Boston’s roster in 2017. The 21-year-old struggled tremendously in his brief September call-up, collecting four hits and striking out 12 times in 20 plate appearances.
Royals right-hander Kyle Zimmer completed a four-week throwing program as part of his rehab protocol following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery back in July, tweets MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. The former top five overall pick has battled shoulder problems throughout his minor league career, though the hope is that the TOS operation can help Zimmer return to health. Selected fifth overall in 2012, Zimmer has been a mainstay on Top 100 prospect lists even as he’s battled through injuries, but he tossed just 5 2/3 innings this season and has logged just 222 1/3 total innings since the 2012 draft. Only 67 2/3 of those innings have come at the Double-A level, so even if the 25-year-old is healthy next year, he’ll need further seasoning in the minors before he can be considered a Major League option in Kansas City. Flanagan notes that Zimmer is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
An Orioles official tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that he doesn’t believe any of Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez or Yovani Gallardo is well-suited to handle a bullpen role. Kubatko writes that while it’s something of an overstatement to imply that the O’s have a surplus of rotation arms, the team could consider dealing one of that trio this offseason. Each is a change-of-scenery candidate after struggling greatly this year, and Baltimore only has two open rotation spots behind Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

By Mark Polishuk | October 25, 2016 at 8:00am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

With some key position players hitting free agency and a still-unsettled rotation, the Orioles are looking at another busy offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Chris Davis, 1B: $138MM through 2022
Adam Jones, CF: $33MM through 2018
Darren O’Day, RP: $25MM through 2019
J.J. Hardy, SS: $14MM through 2017 ($14MM club option for 2018, $2MM buyout)
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $13.5MM through 2017
Yovani Gallardo, SP: $11MM through 2017 ($13MM club option for 2018, $2MM buyout)
Wade Miley, SP: $8.75MM through 2017 ($12MM club option for 2018, $500K buyout)
Hyun Soo Kim, LF: $4.2MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
Vance Worley (4.112) – $3.3MM
Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
T.J. McFarland (3.007) – $700K
Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
Caleb Joseph (2.135) – $1.0MM
Non-tender candidates: Flaherty, Worley, McFarland

Contract Options

None

Free Agents

Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Michael Bourn, Tommy Hunter, Nolan Reimold, Brian Duensing, Paul Janish, Drew Stubbs

Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview

It’s probably safe to assume that the Orioles aren’t going to drop another $243MM on free agents this offseason. Last winter’s club-record splurge may have been more or less a one-time-only expenditure, as most of that spending went towards keeping a cornerstone piece (Chris Davis) in the fold.

That being said, it would be unusual for owner Peter Angelos to close the wallet altogether just a year later, especially since the O’s made it back to the postseason (albeit just as far as the wild card game). With a number of roster holes that need to be addressed, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette will likely need some cash to again dip into the free agent market, or be creative on the trade front given the Orioles’ lack of attractive minor league trade depth.

The O’s have just under $96MM committed to only eight players for 2017, plus a projected $50.1MM to their ten-player arbitration class. Even if you shave off the salaries of the possible non-tenders, so Baltimore is looking at over $141MM (almost the size of its 2016 Opening Day payroll) for 15 players. In short, the Orioles will surely set a new franchise high for payroll, unless they free up some money in trades.

Given the near-historic weakness of this year’s free agent pitching market, it’s not out of the question that the O’s could shop Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo or Wade Miley. All three starters are under contract only through 2017, so it’s possible another club could take a one-year (or longer, since Gallardo and Miley are under club options for 2018) flier on any of the pitchers.

Of course, Baltimore wouldn’t be selling high on any of the three since Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo are all coming off rough seasons. Jimenez was briefly removed from the rotation in August but pitched quite well down the stretch once he got his starting job back. Miley’s advanced metrics hint that he pitched better in his 11 starts as an Oriole than his 6.17 ERA would indicate, though he is still waiting on that breakout season. Gallardo’s first year in Baltimore was essentially a disaster, punctuated by two trips to the DL, a 5.42 ERA and just 0.6 fWAR over 118 innings.

Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman are locked in the top two rotation spots, so it seems like the O’s would have to move one of their other three veterans to create room for Dylan Bundy. Returning after missing three full MLB seasons to injury, Bundy worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2016 but showed glimpses of his potential when shifted to the rotation later in the year. Bundy’s health history could keep him on an innings limit, but the Orioles are going to give their former first-rounder every chance to stick in the rotation. Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo could be fighting amongst themselves for the last two starting jobs, with the loser going to the bullpen (though none are seen as ideal candidates to do so) or perhaps to another team in a trade.

Then again, dealing a starter may not be a great idea for a team that is itself looking for pitching upgrades. Could the Orioles look into adding a free agent pitcher? It isn’t a great winter to be looking for starters, so barring a trade, it’s more probable that Baltimore hangs onto its own mid-tier rotation options rather than sign another one. That said, the O’s waited until pretty late into the offseason to sign both Jimenez and Gallardo, as both pitchers saw their markets hampered by the qualifying offer. That tactic probably won’t work this winter (Jeremy Hellickson is likely to be the only free agent starter who receives a qualifying offer), though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Duquette check in on any notable starters still lingering on the market in February.

The other end of the pitching equation has far fewer issues, as the Orioles fielded one of the league’s best bullpens. Even with longtime setup man Darren O’Day battling injuries for much of the year, the relief corps still posted excellent numbers thanks to workhorses Brad Brach and Mychal Givens, and the all-timer of a season delivered by closer Zach Britton.

With Britton’s value at an all-time high and the closer projected for a hefty $11.4MM arbitration salary, Britton himself recently discussed the possibility that the O’s could trade him as they did ex-closer Jim Johnson when Johnson’s price tag got too high. With so many other star relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon) available in free agency and the Royals potentially considering a Wade Davis trade, the closing market is already pretty crowded this winter. On the other hand, big spenders like the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Rangers and Yankees will all be looking for bullpen upgrades and at least some of those teams will be left empty-handed in the free agent frenzy and the Davis sweepstakes.

The issue with trading Britton, of course, is that the O’s would be weakening their clearest strength. The bullpen’s dominance helped account for a lot of flaws around the roster — the middling rotation, a below-average defense and even a lineup that relied too much on the long ball. Baltimore hit a league-best 253 homers last season but managed just a .317 OBP. While an above-average club on the basepaths as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, the Orioles combined for just 19 steals in 2016, easily the fewest of any team and fewer than 28 individual players.

The infield core of Davis, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy and superstar Manny Machado will remain intact, and long-time franchise stalwart Adam Jones will return in center field, even if his glovework in center took a big step backwards. Hyun Soo Kim went from looking overmatched in Spring Training to delivering a very solid first season in the majors, but he didn’t record a hit in just 22 plate appearances against southpaws. He will return as the lefty-swinging side of a platoon in either left field or potentially designated hitter. (Rookies Trey Mancini and Christian Walker are both right-handed bats that could platoon with Kim at DH, and Walker is a possible option in left as well.)

That leaves lots of room around the diamond for the Orioles to add speed, athleticism and better all-around batting. If the O’s would still prefer pure power over these attributes, however, they could look to re-sign Mark Trumbo. The slugger hit .256/.316/.533 with a league-high 47 homers over 667 plate appearances, though aside from all this thump, Trumbo brought little else in average, OBP or defensive value. He also slumped badly in the second half and had unusual splits (.932 OPS against right-handers, .608 OPS against lefties) for a right-handed batter whose numbers against all pitchers had been pretty even entering 2016.

Trumbo’s big power year will ensure that the O’s issue him a qualifying offer, so the team will be in line for a first-round draft pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere. It’s hard to let 47 homers walk out the door, though on a team with so much pop already on the roster, Trumbo seems somewhat expendable. The O’s could collect a much-needed draft pick and replace Trumbo with a more well-rounded player in right field.

Of the other Oriole free agents, Steve Pearce or Nolan Reimold could be fits as platoon partners for Kim, with Pearce potentially serving as an everyday option given how well he has hit both lefties and righties in two of the last three seasons. Pearce isn’t a defensive whiz at any position but he is versatile, seeing time at first, second, third, left and right with the Rays and Orioles in 2016. Pearce is liable to receive a lot of free agent attention despite the fact that his recovery from forearm surgery could stretch into Spring Training, though one could assume that his familiarity with Baltimore could give the O’s something of an edge over most other teams. Late-season addition Michael Bourn impressed the team and is open to a return, though that would likely mean setting up another platoon situation in right field.

Extension talks with Pedro Alvarez went nowhere in September, so while a reunion could still occur, Alvarez is another power-only player that the O’s may feel comfortable letting go — particularly since he, too, is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. If both Alvarez and Trumbo depart, the Orioles simply look to obtain the next Alvarez and Trumbo — players with big power and whose defensive shortcomings could be masked in the DH role. Between Alvarez, Trumbo and Nelson Cruz, the O’s have had great success in recent years in acquiring productive sluggers at relatively low prices.

With both corner spots and the DH spot essentially open aside from Kim, the Orioles have lots of options in a free agent market deep in all three areas. They could sign a pure platooner like Rajai Davis (who also brings sorely-needed base-stealing ability) to pair with Kim in left, then go after an everyday right fielder like longtime division rival Jose Bautista. Signing a versatile player such as Ian Desmond could check off a number of boxes — he could be shifted to right field for his regular position, while occasionally spelling Jones in center or Hardy at shortstop.

As I mentioned earlier, the Orioles aren’t likely to break the bank in free agency again, but perhaps they could afford to sign one big-ticket player and one mid-range free agent to fill some of these holes. Adding Desmond, Bautista or other free agents who reject qualifying offers would require the Orioles to surrender their first-round pick. Giving up what is currently the 23rd overall pick might not be a big concern since Baltimore could be getting two compensatory picks back for their own QO free agents in Trumbo and Matt Wieters.

Of course, the Orioles probably thought they had an extra pick coming their way last year before Wieters surprised many by actually accepting his one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer. Wieters’ attempt at boosting his stock with a big platform year in 2016 didn’t entirely work out, as he managed to stay healthy but hit only .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers over 464 PA. Wieters may still be in line for a solid multi-year deal as the top free agent catcher available in the wake of Wilson Ramos’ knee surgery, or he could again choose to stay in a familiar spot and accept a large (if one-year) payday in the hopes that 2017 will be that long-desired platform year.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently outlined the pros and cons of issuing another QO to Wieters, as the Orioles have to weigh the risk of paying $17.2MM for a catcher who looked pretty average (or even on the decline) last season against the benefit of adding a draft pick if Wieters rejects the qualifying offer and departs. This one decision will have a big impact on the rest of Baltimore’s offseason moves; the club will have much less to spend on other needs if $17.2MM in payroll space is being used on Wieters.

If Wieters does leave, the Orioles will have a big vacancy to fill behind the plate. Caleb Joseph was tentatively set to be the 2016 starter before Wieters accepted the QO, though Joseph is no longer a regular option following a desultory season. Joseph hit a measly .174/.216/.197, recording such astonishing offensive lows as a 6 wRC+ and zero RBI over his 141 PA. At the very least, Joseph did provide good framing and defensive numbers, so he’s still in the mix as the backup.

Top catching prospect Chance Sisco may be ready to make his big league debut in 2017, though he’s still quite young (Sisco turns 22 in February) and still something of a defensive question mark. There’s no guarantee the O’s can count on Sisco even for Opening Day 2018, so they could need more than a one-year stopgap to start ahead of Joseph. The O’s could focus solely on defense by signing someone like Jason Castro, essentially punting on offense from the catcher’s spot since the rest of the lineup is so strong. Former Oriole Nick Hundley is another possibility, though Hundley is a defensive liability.

Longtime utilityman Ryan Flaherty could be non-tendered despite a pretty modest $1.7MM projected arbitration salary, as the O’s could probably re-sign Flaherty at a lower price. If Flaherty isn’t brought back, the Orioles will need a new backup infielder, though Machado’s ability to play both third and short gives them some flexibility.

Speaking of Machado, it seems likely that Duquette will again broach the idea of an extension with the 24-year-old this offseason. Duquette was rather circumspect when discussing extension negotiation plans with Machado, Tillman, Britton or Schoop, though of that group, there’s little question that locking up Machado is Baltimore’s biggest long-term priority. It would likely take well over $250MM to make a Machado extension happen given his age and spectacular track record, and that kind of expenditure could obviously impact how much the Orioles plan to spend on new talent this offseason. The O’s have quite a bit of future payroll flexibility, however, as Davis and O’Day are the only players committed money beyond the 2018 season. Like most extensions, a Machado deal may not occur or begin to be negotiated until after the rest of the offseason business is done, so we may have to wait until Spring Training for more news on the that front.

Beyond just helping to score a wild card berth, the Orioles’ spending spree of a year ago showed that Angelos is again ready to pay top dollar to retain and obtain talent. Baltimore doesn’t have as many key pieces hitting free agency this winter as it did in 2015, so this offseason’s most notable moves could consist of bringing some new faces to Camden Yards. The Orioles’ mixture of innings-eating starting pitching, sluggers and great bullpen work only got them so far in 2016, so some further roster maneuvering is still needed to keep the O’s in the playoff hunt.

Should The Orioles Give Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2016 at 1:25pm CDT

Forty-nine weeks ago, Matt Wieters became the second player to ever accept a qualifying offer from his team (following Colby Rasmus, who accepted a day prior). The move came as somewhat of a surprise at the time, as despite a lackluster season that was slowed by injuries, Wieters was poised to hit the market as the top available catcher. The former No. 5 overall pick and agent Scott Boras elected to instead take a one-year, $15.8MM offer, however, which afforded Wieters with the chance to further reestablish his health. While he succeeded in that effort to some extent, the 2016 season came with mixed results overall.

Wieters, 31 next May, tallied 464 plate appearances over the life of 124 games. While that’s a low total relative to his most durable years, the Orioles shielded Wieters early in the season from playing on consecutive days and were cautious in building him to the point where he would even catch on three consecutive days. Wieters did just so for the first time this past season in June, and by September he’d built up to the point that he at one point drew starts behind the plate on six consecutive days. In that regard, Wieters was able to demonstrate that he’s physically capable of handling a notable workload behind the plate — something he was unable to show in 2016 when he caught back-to-back games on just four occasions. Certainly that show of durability improves his free agent stock this winter.

On the other hand, Wieters’ overall production at the plate deteriorated this season. He saw his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all decrease along with his walk rate, and while he improved his strikeout rate from 23.8 percent to 18.3 percent, Wieters also nearly doubled his infield-fly rate. After popping up just four times in 282 PAs last year, Wieters popped out 17 times in this year’s 464 PAs — and those infield flies are every bit as detrimental as a strikeout, as they’re effectively a wasted at-bat and a guaranteed out. Park-adjusted metrics OPS+ and wRC+ agreed last season that Wieters’ bat was roughly league average (101 — or one percent above the league average), whereas this season he was markedly below the league average (88 wRC+, 87 OPS+ or 12 and 13 percent below average, respectively). He did belt 17 home runs, but he hit just 17 doubles and overall managed a pedestrian .243/.302/.409 batting line. That’s about league average for a catcher, but as noted before, it’s a far cry from average relative to the entire league.

On the defensive side of things, Wieters threw out 35 percent of opponents trying to steal against the Orioles’ pitching staff while he was behind the plate — an encouraging outcome for a catcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and dealt with elbow tendinitis last year — but he once again drew poor marks in the eyes of pitch framing metrics. Baseball Prospectus rated him as below average in that regard for the fourth consecutive season, while StatCorner.com has been giving Wieters a below-average framing grade for five straight years.

Wieters has accepted a qualifying offer once before and would bring his two-year tab with the Orioles from 2016-17 to $33MM if he received and accepted another this year. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but if Boras and Wieters feel that the improved durability in 2016 will lead to a multi-year deal on the open market, then they’ll surely think he can earn more. And, the fact that Wilson Ramos suffered a horribly timed knee injury that will weigh down his free-agent stock only makes Wieters look more appealing relative to the remainder of the market. In that respect, it’s easy to see why the Orioles might feel comfortable making the offer.

The other side of the coin for the O’s, though, is that they opened the 2016 season with a franchise-record $147MM payroll and currently project to have an even larger $155MM payroll next season, as Jason Martinez lays out on the Orioles’ payroll page over at Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include Wieters at all, so penciling him in at an additional $17.2MM would cause the team’s projected payroll to balloon to $172.2MM next season before even addressing any of the other needs that face the Orioles’ roster — namely adding some rotation help and a corner outfielder. Considering the fact that Wieters has already surprised the team by accepting once before, Orioles GM Dan Duquette may not wish to make that kind of gamble a second time.

There’s an argument to be made for either side, so let’s open this one up to the public for debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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