Free Agent Profile: Chris Davis
Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.
Strengths/Pros
Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game. He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013. He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball. Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012. A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching. From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers. Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.
Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime. Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter. Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.
Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman. He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years. He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.
Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes. Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014. He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.
Weaknesses/Cons
All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect. Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%. Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012. Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players. So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.
With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption. Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season. Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well. So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.
Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year. Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year. The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again? If so, how soon?” Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi. It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.
Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.
Personal
Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason. Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham. ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron. The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season. After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year. Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.
Market
The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid. The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits. There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play. A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch. Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position. Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.
Expected Contract
Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis. Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency. With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years. It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well. I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.
AL East Notes: Dickey, Schoop, Orioles, Osuna
Though R.A. Dickey‘s short start yesterday in a hugely important Game 4 of the ALCS led to quite a bit of negativity among Blue Jays fans, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star opines that his $12MM club option for the 2016 season should still be exercised. Griffin points out that while the reactionary conclusion is to say the team should cut ties with the knuckeballer, that’s irrational. Dickey leads all Major League pitchers in innings dating back to 2012, and he was outstanding in the season’s second half, working to a 2.80 ERA over his final 15 starts. Dickey, in fact, logged a 3.11 ERA across his final 150 1/3 innings, dating back to June 2. Though his strikeout rate in that time (5.5 K/9) leaves plenty to be desired, he also averaged just 2.3 walks per nine innings. Two hundred league-average (or better) innings would be worth the $12MM total of his option, which really boils down to an $11MM decision, since the Jays have to pay him a $1MM buyout even if they’re cutting ties. At one year and $11MM, the Jays should keep Dickey around, especially with David Price, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle all potentially departing this winter as free agents.
More from the AL East…
- Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com feels that while the Orioles have a good deal of needs this offseason with several key free agents possibly departing and holes to plug in the rotation and bullpen, a long-term deal with second baseman Jonathan Schoop should still be on the team’s to-do list. As Dubroff points out, Schoop made offensive strides from a dismal 2014 campaign to 2015. Long one of the organization’s best prospects, Schoop batted .279/.306/.482, and while his plate discipline leaves plenty to be desired, he has quite a bit of pop for a middle infielder. I’ll add that while defensive metrics dinged Schoop this season after loving his glovework in 2014, he also missed nearly three months with a partially torn ligament in his knee, which likely hampered his range.
- Sticking with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the entire coaching staff will return for the 2016 season. Kubatko had previously written that all coaches other than pitching coach Dave Wallace were on board, but he’s now apparently agreed to terms as well.
- Roberto Osuna has been outstanding this year for the Blue Jays at just 20 years of age, but as Chris Mitchell writes for Fangraphs, it’s far from certain that he’ll build upon that early success. Relievers tend to decline more rapidly than do starters, and many other quality young arms have fizzled out early. There are some more promising examples, as pitchers like Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton have had fairly long and productive careers, and some in-progress careers (such as Drew Storen) that probably can’t yet be evaluated. But the overall historical record isn’t terribly promising. Of course, the comparison sample is small given Osuna’s remarkably young age, and he might well end up back in the rotation before long anyway.
Coaching Notes: Rockies, Mariners, Tigers, Marlins
Here’s the latest on coaching changes throughout MLB:
- The Rockies will bring back their entire coaching staff under manager Walt Weiss, Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. That includes hitting coach Blake Doyle, bench coach Tom Runnells, pitching coach Steve Foster, and bullpen coach Darren Holmes.
- The Rockies will, however, lose mental skills coach Andy McKay to the Mariners, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports. McKay will reportedly take over for Chris Gwynn as the organization’s farm director. Along with Gwynn, a number of minor-league coaches have also departed, signaling that new GM Jerry Dipoto is changing the way the Mariners develop prospects.
- Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones has announced his retirement, James Schmehl of MLive.com notes. The team had previously announced that its entire coaching staff would be back next season, so the moves comes as a bit of a surprise, although perhaps not a huge one — Jones considered retiring after Jim Leyland’s departure in late 2013. In a statement, Jones said he wanted to spend more time with his family.
- Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux’s contract expires at the end of the month, Evan Grant of DallasNews.com writes. The team has invited Maddux to return next season, but it’s unclear whether he will. One would think he would attract plenty of attention if he were to become available — Maddux’s tenure in Texas has been successful, and he’s highly respected throughout the game.
- The Diamondbacks are interviewing pitching coach candidates, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Bullpen coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. was expected to be in the mix, but he wants to be closer to his father (who lives in Washington State) as he deals with cancer. The Diamondbacks now believe Stottlemyre is likely to take a position with the Mariners, who have requested permission to interview him. The Diamondbacks say they could consider up to six internal candidates and have requested permission to speak with others outside the organization.
- Former Cubs manager Rick Renteria has spoken with the Marlins about their managerial job, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes (scroll down). The other known interviewees for the position include Larry Bowa, Manny Acta, Bo Porter, Phil Nevin and Alex Cora.
- Orioles first base coach Wayne Kirby will be back, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Baltimore is working to retain all of its staff and has nearly done so.
Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.
Orioles Claim Vance Worley, Designate Jorge Rondon
The Orioles have claimed righty Vance Worley off waivers from the Pirates, according to a team announcement. Baltimore designated fellow right-hander Jorge Rondon to create roster space.
Worley, 28, is set to be eligible for arbitration for the second time. He earned $2.45MM last year as a Super Two player. Pittsburgh enjoyed a stunning turnaround season from Worley in 2014, as he contributed 110 2/3 innings of 2.85 ERA ball and set himself up for the aforementioned arb payday.
But Worley didn’t quite follow through last year, as he worked to a 4.02 ERA in 71 2/3 frames. Rises in his walk rate (2.6 BB/9, up from 1.8) and BABIP (.024 points higher) were contributors to that change. Worley ultimately made just eight starts for Pittsburgh.
Baltimore executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette explained that the club will wait to decide how best to utilize Worley, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter links). “He’s had a couple good years,” said Duquette. “He’s durable, a good competitor, has good control. He’s just a dependable major league pitcher.”
In Rondon, the Orioles are giving up on a reliever who had not done much in limited chances at the MLB level, but who put up a promising 2.23 ERA over 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year (with 7.4 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9). Baltimore had claimed him early last year off waivers from the Rockies.
AL East Notes: Chen, Britton, Murphy, Blue Jays
While many are anticipating that the Orioles will have difficulty in retaining their free agents, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com cautions against simply dismissing the possibility that Baltimore can find a way to retain some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day. Of the four, Kubatko considers Chen the least likely to return, but he notes that the O’s had an organizational meeting last Friday which included managing partner Peter Angelos. One source later termed the meeting “productive” when speaking to Kubatko. The MASN scribe also hears from a source that Angelos wants to not only re-sign Chen but also is showing a willingness to add a free agent starter beyond the longtime Baltimore lefty. Of course, Kubatko also points out the possibility that Chen’s demotion to Class-A ball this season — a more or less procedural move that bought the Orioles some time to sort out a roster crunch — strained the relationship between player and team.
From my own vantage point, history hasn’t shown that the Orioles would be willing to spend at the necessary levels to sign Chen. A four-year deal is almost certainly there for him this winter, and he has a case for a fifth season at an annual rate in excess of the $12.5MM on Ubaldo Jimenez‘s four-year deal with Baltimore. As Kubtako notes, Baltimore “shocked” many in the industry with that Jimenez contract; either a five-year deal or a significantly larger four-year pact for Chen strikes me as unlikely.
A few more items pertaining to the AL East…
- Kubatko’s colleague, Steve Melewski, writes that fans who feel the Orioles should try Zach Britton back in the rotation are misguided. Britton would be unable to jump from about 70 innings per season to the 175 to 200 necessary out of the rotation, and more importantly, he’d almost certainly be less effective in the rotation. Moving to a starting role would make it more difficult for Britton to hold his velocity, and hitters would benefit from second and third looks at his incredible sinker. He’d also need to throw more secondary pitches than he presently does, and the move would further weaken a bullpen that will already be an area of need for Baltimore this winter.
- Daniel Murphy signing with the Yankees is an unlikely scenario but can’t be completely ruled out, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Second base is the Yankees’ most uncertain position on the diamond at present, and while many believe Rob Refsnyder will get a long look next year, Murphy’s swing fits Yankee Stadium well. The Yankees are in the midst of their pro scouting meetings and beginning to plot a course for the offseason, so Murphy’s name figures to at least be mentioned. Feinsand spoke to a pair of sources that estimated Murphy can land a deal similar to Chase Headley‘s four-year, $52MM contract on the heels of a big postseason performance.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back on the trade that sent R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. While there were other pieces in the trade, the core of the trade — Dickey for Syndergaard/d’Arnaud — looks excellent for the Mets, in hindsight. Sherman spoke with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who explained the the team had a win-now approach back in that 2012 offseason, with the goal of maximizing the prime years of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were years from contributing, and Toronto felt it could get four years of control of a win-now pitcher to help its near-term playoff hopes. The Jays also talked to the Rays about James Shields and had interest in free agent Anibal Sanchez at the time, but Tampa Bay didn’t want to move Shields within the division and Sanchez preferred Detroit to Toronto, Sherman adds.
East Notes: Orioles, Davis, Howard, Nationals, Red Sox
While the Orioles will make an effort to make competitive offers to their impending free agents, the club’s previously exhibited unwillingness to overpay might lead Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day to new clubs this winter, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The top offers will likely end up surpassing the early, often conservative estimates, and Connolly notes that Chen could conceivably land a five-year deal, while O’Day could get four years. (I personally agree with each possibility, especially the latter.) Davis, meanwhile, could command $150-200MM over a seven-year term, which would shatter the team’s most expensive contract ever (Adam Jones‘ $85.5MM deal). While Connolly notes that the Orioles “should” have the money to make strong pushes to retain their free agents, history is not on their side in retaining their top free agents.
A bit more on the O’s and some other Eastern-division clubs…
- MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes that Baltimore is probably caught between a rock and a hard place with Davis; there’s a large outcry among fans to see Davis return after the Orioles failed to re-sign Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. However, the O’s will eventually want to make a run at locking up Manny Machado and also need to pursue help for the top of the rotation. As Melewski points out, it would seem difficult for the Orioles to sign Davis, extend Machado and bolster the rotation — or even to accomplish just two of those three goals.
- While the Phillies traded many of their former stars over the past calendar year, there was no interest from another club in first baseman Ryan Howard, former president Pat Gillick tells CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. Gillick expressed some surprise that no American League team expressed any interest in swinging a deal for Howard, who despite his contract and platoon issues remains a candidate for part-time DH work. The Phils would, of course, have to eat a huge portion of the $35MM still due to Howard ($25MM in 2016 salary plus a $10MM buyout on his 2017 option), though they were willing to absorb money most of their recent trades of veteran pieces.
- Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down the Nationals‘ roster, outlining the players that exceeded expectations, those that met expectations and those that failed to meet expectations. Most notably, in doing so, Janes points out that Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth were all penciled into the lineup on the same day just twice this season.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations sees more of the Royals in his team than he does the Blue Jays, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Put another way, Dombrowski said last week that he feels the Sox have enough power on their roster and is pleased with the team’s overall low strikeout rate (even though a few players do whiff with regularity). As Silverman writes, pitching and defense — specifically the former of those two elements — will be Dombrowski’s primary focus this offseason.
AL East Notes: Sox, Young, Hunter, O’s, Pentland
Dave Dombrowski traded several prospects for established stars when he was running the Tigers, but will he do the same in Boston? One rival executive believes so, telling Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (Twitter link) that “Dave is going to make some moves. He’ll be busy.” The Red Sox have one of baseball’s most well-regarded minor league systems, so if Dombrowski and GM Mike Hazen did decide to shift some prospects, there would be no shortage of interest from around the league. Here’s the latest AL East news…
- Right-hander Chris Young could be an Orioles target this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. Manager Buck Showalter likes Young, w free agent who has a 3.40 ERA over 288 1/3 innings with the Mariners and Royals over the last two seasons. Advanced metrics (4.80 FIP, 5.25 xFIP, 5.20 SIERA) haven’t favored Young’s low-strikeout, flyball-inducing numbers, however, and it’s possible he might not be as effective pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Camden Yards.
- Also from Kubatko, free agent Tommy Hunter is interested in returning to the Orioles and Kubatko figures the club “will at least discuss” bringing the right-hander back. Baltimore, however, may not want to spend too much on a reliever who isn’t a closer or setup man, Kubatko warns. Hunter was dealt to the Cubs in a trade deadline swap for Junior Lake in July.
- The Yankees will not be bringing hitting coach Jeff Pentland or bullpen coach Gary Tuck back in 2016, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Pentland — also a former hitting coach for the Marlins, Cubs, Royals, Mariners and Dodgers — only served on New York’s staff for the 2015 campaign. Assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell, minor league coaches James Rowsen and Marcus Thames, and former slugger Raul Ibanez are all cited as King as possible candidates to replace Pentland. For the bullpen coach job, King suggests that former Yankees bullpen coach Mike Harkey (recently fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach) could return.
- For more division news, MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another edition of AL East Notes earlier today.
Cafardo On Carter, Longoria, Strasburg
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is concerned about the Red Sox‘s lack of power, but top exec Dave Dombrowski doesn’t seem as worried.
“I think we have enough power,” Dombrowski said last week. “It depends on how the lineup shakes out. Personally, I like guys who can drive the ball into the gaps or hit the ball out of the ballpark. David [Ortiz] is a power guy. Hanley can do what I’m talking about. We don’t strike out in abundance. Our strikeouts are down compared to most clubs in the league. We’re very similar to Kansas City — not a power club.”
Still, in case DD changes his mind, Cafardo lists many intriguing power hitters that could be options for Boston this winter. Here’s more from today’s column..
- One major league source believes that the Astros could dangle first baseman Chris Carter as trade bait. The 28-year-old (29 in December) ended up with a .294/.400/.529 batting line over twenty postseason plate appearances, continuing to build off of the .240/.328/.558 batting line and nine home runs that he put up over his final 120 plate appearances. Despite that strong second half, his “unpredictable performance, coupled with high strikeouts” could have the Astros a more reliable alternative, Cafardo writes. MLBTR projects Carter to earn $5.6MM in his second of four trips through arbitration.
- Evan Longoria‘s contract runs another seven years and his production hasn’t been as great as expected, but one AL GM sounds like he’d be pretty high on him still. “The contract he signed is long but reasonable,” the exec told The Boston Globe scribe. The Rays have repeatedly shot down speculation that they would shop the third baseman, but with the position being in such high demand, Cafardo wonders if they would keep an open mind. The Angels, he says, would be a great fit for the 30-year-old. Longoria’s contract with the club runs through 2022, which would be his age-36 season, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023.
- Cafardo is hearing “a lot of buzz” that the Nationals could make right-hander Stephen Strasburg available. Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Rangers and Nationals had trade talks involving Strasburg over the winter, though nothing ever came close to getting done. The 27-year-old right-hander’s value is down due both to an inconsistent 2015 season and to the fact that he now has only one season left before hitting free agency. Despite all of that, one has to imagine that the Nats would require significant return to part with the former No. 1 overall draft pick.
- The Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and maybe even the Red Sox (thanks in part to the Allard Baird connection) could all be in the mix for Royals outfielder Alex Gordon this season, Cafardo writes. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that the Astros were a team to keep an eye on with regards to Gordon.
- Cardinals outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss is an interesting and affordable left-handed power option for a few clubs this winter, including the Red Sox, Cafardo writes. Cafardo says the Orioles will be another team “likely” keeping an eye on Moss. Moss earned $6.5MM in 2015 and the MLBTR projection model has him slated to earn $7.9MM in 2016. The incumbent Cardinals would reportedly like to retain Moss, at least in a bench capacity.
Heyman On Cespedes, Davis, Mattingly, Phillies
The Mets seem to love Yoenis Cespedes, and for good reason, but based on talks with Mets people, one rival executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that he would be “shocked” if the Mets retained him. After all, Cespedes could be in line for a $150MM+ deal and the Mets are intent on keeping their rotation together for years to come.
The Mets’ other key free agent, Daniel Murphy, has “made himself millions,” said one scout, in reference to his postseason heroics. Even though his stock is trending upwards, however, one rival GM said he still thinks the Mets will pass on extending him the $15.8MM qualifying offer.
Here’s a look at more of the highlights from Heyman’s article..
- The Orioles would appear to have a hard time hanging on to Chris Davis given their usual budget, but Peter Angelos has stated his interest in keeping the slugger and even with a potential ~$200MM asking price, re-signing him hasn’t been ruled out, Heyman writes. In the most recent edition of Tim Dierkes’ 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, Davis is ranked No. 4 ahead of several notable names, including fellow slugger Yoenis Cespedes. Tim projects that Davis will be vying for a seven-year deal with a mid-$20MM AAV.
- “Dodgers higher-ups are said to give Don Mattingly big credit for the way he’s handled the clubhouse,” Heyman writes. It’s not certain that Mattingly will return in 2016, but Heyman notes that the approval of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke doesn’t hurt his case.
- Sources confirmed to Heyman that the Phillies have interviewed Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo and Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak for their GM job. Both men have been mentioned as candidates for the vacancy.
- The Cubs love Kyle Schwarber‘s bat but they’re still unsure where he’ll end up in the field. Schwarber is currently slotted in the outfield and it remains to be seen whether he’ll eventually end up behind the plate.
- Reds bench coach Jay Bell is “thought to have at least come up at some point” in the Marlins’ managerial search, but a source tells Heyman that he is “not in the mix” at this time.
- Some Padres people could see team exec Moises Alou taking over as manager, but three of Alou’s friends told Heyman that they doubt he’d even want the job. The known managerial candidates there are Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin, former infielder Alex Cora, Diamondbacks coach Andy Green, Angels assistant GM Scott Servais, and ex-Twins manager Ron Gardenhire are said to be candidates for the position, but Heyman hears that Dusty Baker and ex-red Sox catcher Jason Varitek are not candidates at this time.
Poll: Should The Orioles Make Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?
The Orioles entered the season with a number of important impending free agents. We know Chris Davis will receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer, but it’s less of a certainty with the club’s other two candidates. Wei-Yin Chen is also expected to receive and reject a qualifying offer. As we’ve heard multiple times, most recently from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the team has yet to decide what to do with Matt Wieters.
Wieters will be entering his age 30 season after a disappointing 2015 campaign. He started 2015 on the disabled list while recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there was an expectation that he could make the Opening Day roster, he was actually held out until June 5. The club decided to wait until he could start multiple days in a row behind the plate before activating him.
He was in the midst of a breakout in 2014 when he went down with the injury. While his .267/.319/.422 line over 282 plate appearances is a big step back from 2014, it’s almost a perfect replication of his career numbers (.258/.320/.423). The intervening injury does make it difficult to judge who Wieters is as an offensive player. His strikeout rate (23.8% K%) actually increased dramatically – five percent higher than his career norm. It’s possible that a normal offseason could restore him to his typical whiff rates. That means more balls in play and more hits.
Catcher defense has become an increasingly important measure. Wieters draws mixed reviews in this theater of work. His catcher framing from StatCorner is largely discouraging. He was worth negative eight runs in part-time work this year. In his last full season, 2013, he graded out at negative 11 runs. On a positive note, he’s good at blocking pitches and has caught roughly one-third of base runners over his career. That includes eight of 26 attempts this season (30.7%).
The word from Heyman is that the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer only if they’re convinced he won’t take it. In other words, they aren’t comfortable committing $15.8MM to Wieters next season. The club does work under fairly tight budget constraints and may be able to make a bigger upgrade elsewhere with that money. MLBTR’s Steve Adams “can’t imagine” the Scott Boras client would accept, but there are probably a few feasible circumstances where it could make sense.
For example, any physical problem that could negatively affect his ability to sign a long term contract might provide impetus to take a qualifying offer. Teams are always wary of losing an early draft pick. If they’re concerned about his health, Wieters could wind up getting the Nelson Cruz treatment. To be clear, there are no reports that Wieters is dealing with an injury, it’s just one potential scenario under which he may accept a qualifying offer.
If we assume he’s healthy, it does seem like Wieters should merit a sizable multi-year contract. That’s including a declined qualifying offer. There aren’t any perfect recent comps, but I do see Wieters as closer to Russell Martin (signed last offseason for five-years, $82MM) than Jarrod Saltalamacchia (signed after 2013 season for three-years, $21MM). Wieters may merit a similar annual value to Martin (about $16MM) over fewer guaranteed season. Unless we’re seriously overestimating his market, it should be a no-brainer for Wieters to decline the qualifying offer.
Let’s turn to the poll. We have a player who looks like a lock to decline a qualifying offer, but the club is putting out indications that they’re worried he’ll accept it. Do they know something we don’t?
Should The Orioles Make A Qualifying Offer To Matt Wieters?
-
Yes 60% (2,900)
-
No 40% (1,908)
Total votes: 4,808