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Stark’s Latest: Tejada, Buehrle, Morris

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Jayson Stark posted a new column for ESPN yesterday; let’s take a glance at the trade rumors therein.

  • Miguel Tejada’s out until August, so that obviously means he won’t be traded this season.  Right?  Wrong – Stark and an AL exec think $30MM or so due to Tejada for the remaining 2.3 seasons on his contract would allow him to pass through waivers.  Miggy could be a hot topic for the August 31st trade deadline.  You may recall that last August Andruw Jones was placed on waivers, claimed, and pulled back.  Andruw called the affair "rude."  Here is a refresher on the waiver trade rules, in case you want to get a head start.
  • Steve Trachsel is the Oriole Stark expects to be traded at the July deadline.  They should move fast, as Trachsel’s stock is plummetting as expected.
  • Stark says Kenny Williams was asking for a ton for Mark Buehrle before extension talks picked up: two of each team’s best three prospects.  Makes sense; ask for that, and then settle for one Grade A prospect if you can get it.  Should Buehrle end up back on the trading block, the White Sox may have to break down and grant that 72 hour negotiating window for an extension.  Stark’s source makes a great point – if Buehrle signs with the Cardinals this offseason, the draft picks going to the team he departs will be the 38th pick and a second-rounder.  Not that thrilling.  But still, the smart money is on a contract extension with the White Sox for Buehrle.
  • Matt Morris is officially on the market, as he should be.  He’s over his head with a 3.39 ERA, but remains a solid, veteran innings eater with over 70 innings of playoff experience.  Morris will make another $5MM this year, $9.5MM in ’08, and $2MM signing bonus due at the end of his contract.  He’s also got a $9MM club option for ’09 with a $1MM buyout attached.  Giants GM Brian Sabean has always been a buyer at the trade deadline, acquiring players like Jason Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Sidney Ponson, and Randy Winn.  Getting a decent prospect for Morris will be a new situation for Sabean.

Teams Scouting Yankee Pitching Prospects

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According to Jim Baubach of Newsday, Yankee farmhands Ian Kennedy and Joba "The Hutt" Chamberlain have become quite popular.  The stands become packed with scouts each team either pitches for the Yanks’ Double A Trenton club.

The White Sox sent one of their top pro scouts to watch the Trenton Thunder recently, despite the Yankees’ insistence that Kennedy and Chamberlain are not available. 

All sorts of other teams have been scouting both pitchers, including the A’s, Rockies, and Orioles.  Chamberlain is the upside choice, while Kennedy is the back-rotation command guy.

Mark Teixeira Trade Rumors

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Kat O’Brien of Newsday has the latest Mark Teixeira trade rumors for our perusal.  According to O’Brien, the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Angels, and Braves as said to be interested in the first baseman.

We’ve seen the Angels connected to Teixeira plenty of times, and I still don’t get it.  Why would the Angels move Casey Kotchman, by all accounts a fine fielder, off first base?  The rumors persist, but this does not seem like a fit for the Halos.  They need a third baseman.

With the Yanks, I imagine the stumbling block remains finding a package good enough for Jon Daniels without including Phil Hughes.  I see this as a long shot, mainly because the Red Sox are not rumored to be after Teixeira.  And I just demonstrated why I don’t think the Angels will legitimately chase him.  So the Yankees wouldn’t be in competition with an AL contender for Teixeira (unless the Tigers get involved).  There is no pressing need to give up the farm, even the non-Hughes part of the farm.

The Braves are a dark horse; I think the Dodgers and Orioles will go head to head for Teixeira.  O’Brien mentions that at least eight or nine teams have expressed at least casual interest, so there are a few unknowns here.  If I had to guess, I’d say Teixeira becomes a Dodger or else stays put this summer.

Healey’s Latest

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Mark Healey at Gotham Baseball has long been a solid, underappreciated source of inside information.  He’s got another Rumor Mill up at his site.  My summary follows.

  • The Yankees have an eye on big-name 1Bs like Mark Teixeira and Todd Helton.  But more realistically, they’re looking at Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena.  He’s got the defense, so even if he regresses to a 20 HR bat it’s a nice pickup.  Healey’s source believes Tyler Clippard is too much but the Rays like Sean Henn.  The Yanks have also inquired about the versatile Ty Wigginton.
  • The Reds, Rockies, and others have been scouting the Yankees’ Double A Trenton affiliate.  Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Brett Gardner are probably the most desirable players on that roster.  Gotham Baseball has previously connected the Yankees to Brian Fuentes and David Weathers.  Another reliever the Yankees like is Chad Bradford, though the O’s price may be too high.
  • Gotham quotes an NL scout who doesn’t believe the Mets will acquire a starter by trading Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, or Fernando Martinez.  That scout believes the return of Pedro will supply the needed boost.  Personally, I can see Milledge going.
  • Some former Mets on the radar: Brady Clark, Jay Payton, and David Weathers.
  • Healey says the Mets sent scouts to look at Randy Winn this weekend.  They must not be pleased with Moises Alou’s progress.  As I mentioned earlier, Winn is signed through 2009.  He has a full no-trade clause this year.  For 2008-09 he can block deals to ten teams.
  • The Pirates have some vets to trade, and have contacted the Mets regarding Shawn Chacon and Damaso Marte.  Marte is quietly having a fine season with a 1.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  Marte earns $2.45MM this year, and $2MM in ’08 with an odd $6MM club option for 2009.  He can also earn incentives based on games finished.

Angels After Tejada Again

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Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal said only that Miguel Tejada might become available, and that the Angels have a need.  Now another source, Joseph A. Reaves of The Arizona Republic, says the Halos are making another run at Tejada.

The Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Tejada trade last year was nixed by O’s owner Peter Angelos.  With Tejada apparently in the midst of a significant power decline (his SLG is down to .421), maybe the Orioles would be more open to the same trade. Tejada makes $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09.

Tejada would of course have to be convinced to play third base, and Bill Stoneman would have to finally pull the trigger on a deal involving good prospects.

Even if Tejada slugs around .450 this year, he’s still be far, far better than what the Angels have gotten from their third basemen.  Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, and others have combined for a .235/.280/.296 line at the position. 

Unless he’s included in the deal, a Tejada acquisition would leave top prospect Brandon Wood without a spot on the Angels until 2009, when Orlando Cabrera’s contract is up.

Orioles To Become Sellers?

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Jeff Zrebiec’s article for the Baltimore Sun this morning discusses the possibility that the Orioles start selling off veteran parts as we approach the trading deadline.  He specifically names Scott Williamson, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, and Steve Trachsel as trade candidates.

In a related note, Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to an industry source indicating that the Mets might be interested in trading for Williamson and Jay Payton.

Williamson makes $900K this year, with additional incentives based on his number of games.  Patterson, a Scott Boras client, makes $4.3MM and is a free agent after the season.  His terrible hitting this year will cost him what could’ve been a decent payday.  The Gibbons contract is ugly: $5MM this year, $5.7MM in ’08, and $6.2MM in ’09.  Trachsel earns $3.1MM this year plus a $4.75MM club option for ’08.  Finally, Payton makes $4.5MM this year and $5MM in ’08.

The Orioles could really go nuts if they wanted to, dumping off contracts and veterans.  Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Ramon Hernandez, Danys Baez, Aubrey Huff, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker could be sent packing.  If they were to commit to a rebuilding year in ’08, the Orioles have players to fill almost any team’s needs.  Of course, trading all those vets would amount to admitting how many mistake contracts the Orioles have on the books.

Reds and Angels Discuss Dunn

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According to Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times, the Angels had preliminary discussions with the Reds regarding Adam Dunn.  Bolch’s source indicates that talks died because the Reds requested "a proven Major League starting pitcher, a Major League infielder – preferably a second baseman – and a top prospect."

Translation: Wayne Krivsky wanted Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood.  OK, that sounds absurd.  And Aybar is a shortstop.  Negotiation is all about asking for more than you want and meeting at the right place, but I can’t figure out what the Reds asked for.  There’s no way they asked for the above with a straight face.  Maybe they wanted Santana and Howie Kendrick?  But then a top prospect on top?  C’mon now. Bolch’s source says the Halos wouldn’t trade Kendrick for Dunn straight up.

Santana plus one other useful player would be a fine bounty for Dunn, who will reach free agency after the season if he’s traded.

I have a correction, as I earlier wrote that Krivsky could simply exercise Dunn’s 2008 option and then retain freedom to trade him.  That’s not exactly true.  The situation, according to Ken Rosenthal:

"If the Reds keep Dunn and exercise his option after the season, he will gain full no-trade protection until next June 15. After that date, he could be traded to 10 clubs, but the list would be of his own choosing."

By the way, the Angels may turn their attention back to Miguel Tejada if they can’t get Dunn.  The Halos are again interested in him, according to the Riverside Press Enterprise.

The Resurrection Of Steve Trachsel?

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This article isn’t really about the Orioles trading Steve Trachsel this July; it’s more about how the starter nobody wanted is doing a fine job so far with a 3.82 ERA through 13 starts.

Even a cursory glance at the underlying stats reveal that Trachsel’s success this year is a house of cards.  First, he has an absurdly low strikeout rate of 2.75 per nine.  That’s right, he’s whiffed 23 in 75 innings.  Lowest strikeout rate in the Majors given 70 IP?  We have a winner, although Zach Duke and his 5.75 ERA is right there.

How about his control?  4.3 walks per nine is not good.  Home run rate?  Pretty good at 0.84 per nine, but not likely to last since he’s a flyball pitcher.

So what has Trachsel done well this year?  He’s allowed just eight hits per nine innings, in large part because of a .241 BABIP.  Previous Trachsel BABIPs: .299, .282, .280.  Normal stuff.  The .241 mark is fourth best in baseball, and has no chance of lasting.

The Orioles, owners of perhaps the biggest regression candidate in the game, would do very well to sell high on him right now.  Of course, they’ll wait until his ERA is over 5 instead.

Orioles To Make Amends With Boras?

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The Orioles have typically shied away from Scott Boras clients, but it stands to reason that yesterday’s selection of catcher Matt Wieters will re-open that door.  If the O’s are able to sign Wieters by the August 15th deadline, perhaps they’ll consider Boras clients this winter.

Here’s a list of Boras free agents for the winter of 2007-08:

Eric Gagne
Andruw Jones
Kyle Lohse
Greg Maddux
Corey Patterson
Kenny Rogers
Jeff Weaver
Brad Wilkerson
Byung-Hyun Kim

The Orioles will be one of the clubs in the running for a center fielder, as it doesn’t seem likely Corey Patterson will be around next year.  A Boras reconciliation would put Jones in play.  One could also envision the O’s adding a crafty veteran like the Gambler.

Stark’s Latest

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Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip.  I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime.  California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.

Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.

  • Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada’s power will ever return.  Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada.  Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before.  Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09.  That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
  • Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever.  A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care.  I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
  • Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent."  I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center.  Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons.  Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs.  This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.
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