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Orioles, Angels, Rangers Have Shown Interest In Rich Hill

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12:10pm: Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Angels and Rangers have also shown interest in Hill this off-season. Texas has been active in the starting pitcher market already, landing Jacob deGrom on a five-year, $185MM deal, Andrew Heaney on a two-year, $25MM deal, bringing back Martin Perez via the qualifying offer and trading for Jake Odorizzi. With that quartet joining Jon Gray, there’s not an obvious rotation fit for Hill there, but it’s entirely possible their interest in the veteran came prior to their free agent signings.

The Angels have added Tyler Anderson on a three-year, $39MM deal to a rotation led by Shohei Ohtani. Left-handers Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez round out a typical five-man rotation, and all three have shown plenty of promise. Yet the Angels have tended to go with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload, and while they’ve said they’ll be a bit more aggressive with Ohtani’s workload in 2023, adding a veteran arm certainly makes sense for the Halos.

8:34am: The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Rich Hill, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. The team has already signed right-hander Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal this off-season, but has long been rumored to be in the market for multiple veteran starters to bolster their rotation.

Hill, 42, played out last season on a one-year, $5MM (with $3MM more in incentives available) deal with the Red Sox – the seventh contract the Massachusetts local had signed with the team. The left-hander made 26 starts, tossing 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball. He did miss some time with a left knee strain, but on the whole kept his strikeout and walk rates in line with a year earlier (below average strikeout rate, above average walk rate). A year prior, Hill threw 154 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball between time with the Rays and Mets, so while there’s a natural durability risk with a 42-year-old pitcher, Hill has made 57 starts over the past two seasons.

The veteran’s career has been something of a journey, spanning 18 years and 11 different teams. He originally debuted with the Cubs back in 2005, and spent the next ten seasons moving around the big leagues a bit, initially working as a starter before moving to the bullpen. A four-start, 1.55 ERA stint with the Red Sox in late in 2015 propelled a late-career resurgence for Hill, and he turned that into a one-year deal to pitch out of Oakland’s rotation.

Hill would turn in 14 starts of 2.25 ERA ball for the A’s in 2016, striking out batters at a 28.9% clip. He’d continue his front-of-the-rotation form even after a trade to the Dodgers, working to a 1.83 ERA over six starts down the stretch in LA. With a strong full season of work under his belt, LA opted to bring Hill back on a three-year, $48MM deal starting in 2017. It’d prove a wise move, as Hill would wind up making 68 starts of 3.16 ERA during his time with the Dodgers.

Things have dropped off a little in recent years for Hill, with his strikeout rate down almost 10% from 2019. Nonetheless, he still remains a solid back-of-the-rotation veteran arm. That holds plenty of appeal for the Orioles, who came into the off-season looking for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only pitcher to top 23 starts in 2022, but was bought out of an $11MM option and is a free agent.

As things stand, the Orioles’ rotation currently projects to include Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez. Outside of Gibson, Wells’ two years of service time makes him the most senior in that group, while Rodriguez – as good as he projects to be – is yet to pitch in the big leagues, so the addition of a veteran arm certainly makes sense.

Baltimore is one of the 11 teams Hill has appeared for in the past, making 13 starts for the team back in 2009. That particular stint didn’t go so well, as Hill worked to a 7.80 ERA across 57 2/3 innings and wouldn’t make another big league start until turning his career around in Boston in 2015.

Hill was earlier linked to a return to Boston this winter, as he described a “mutual interest” between the two sides in working on an eighth contract there. This interest from Baltimore presents as Hill’s first reported alternative this winter.

Orioles Sign Adam Frazier To One-Year Deal

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The Orioles and infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier are in agreement on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The O’s subsequently announced the signing.

It’s a belated birthday present for Frazier, who turned 31 years old yesterday. The veteran spent the first five years of his career with the Pirates but has bounced to the Padres and Mariners over the past couple of seasons. One of his most attractive traits is his defensive versatility, as he’s played all three outfield positions as well as the three infield positions to the left of first base.

Though he might be a bit stretched at shortstop or in center, he generally gets solid grades for his work at the corners and at second. All three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average give him positive numbers for his career at second and in left, while DRS and UZR also favor his work in right field. At second base, where he’s spent the vast majority of his time, he’s tallied 15 DRS, 1.5 from UZR and 11 OAA.

Offensively, his track record is a bit inconsistent. In his five seasons with Pittsburgh from 2016 to 2020, he was above-average in two of them, by measure of wRC+. In another two seasons, his 97 wRC+ was just below the 100 average. In the shortened 2020 season, he was down to 79. At the end of those five campaigns, his batting line was .273/.336/.413, amounting to a wRC+ of 99, just a hair under league average. Still, he was able to produce 6.8 wins above replacement due to his defensive contributions, according to FanGraphs.

In 2021, he bounced back by hitting .324/.388/.448 in 98 games with the Bucs, amounting to a wRC+ of 127. The Pirates flipped him to the Padres at the deadline but he wilted down the stretch. He hit .267/.327/.335 with San Diego for a wRC+ of 86. The Friars then traded him to the Mariners prior to 2022, but his struggles continued. As a Mariner, he hit .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81.

Despite that inconsistent track record at the plate, Frazier is a solid fit for a Baltimore team that is still trying to chart its path forward. They have a number of infielders and outfielders who are still trying to get accustomed to the major leagues or have not yet made it to the show. Jorge Mateo had a solid defensive season at shortstop but didn’t hit much and struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances. Gunnar Henderson had a solid debut in 2022 and seems to be ticketed for third base duty, though he’s also played second and shortstop. Ramón Urías had also been a solid contributor, even winning a Gold Glove at third base this year, though Henderson’s arrival seems to have bumped him into a utility role. Terrin Vavra could also be in the mix for a bench/utility job. Infield prospects like Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo could get to the big leagues in 2023 and further crowd the picture.

The O’s could conceivably platoon the left-handed hitting Frazier with the right-handed Urías at second base, though both players could also move to other positions if Baltimore wants to give some extended playing time to a young prospect. If Frazier’s bat bounces back or he’s simply getting squeezed out by other players, they could trade him at the deadline given his one-year deal.

The Orioles took a huge step forward in 2022, winning 83 games after five straight dismal seasons. Nonetheless, it seems like 2023 will be another evaluation season, as the club still has many young prospects who need to either make their major league debuts or continue acclimating to the big leagues. Frazier has the ability to slot in wherever he’s needed, giving the club a reliable defender who also has a chance to contribute with the bat. Whether the club can truly compete in 2023 or not, Frazier is likely to be a serviceable addition.

This is the second signing of the offseason for the O’s, as they also signed Kyle Gibson for a one-year, $10MM deal. Since both are one-year contracts, the club continues to have no commitments on the books for 2024, as they have completely avoided multi-year deals in recent years. The last time they signed a free agent to a deal longer than a single season was with Alex Cobb back in 2018. Roster Resource calculates their payroll as now just under $60MM, which is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $44MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Interested In Michael Wacha

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The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Michael Wacha, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re the first team of the offseason known to be checking in on the right-hander, who’s coming off a decent season with the division-rival Red Sox.

Wacha, 31, inked a one-year, $7MM deal with Boston last offseason. He’d posted a 5.05 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rays the year before and hadn’t found much success keeping runs off the board since 2018. The Red Sox nevertheless took on a flier on a bounceback, placing their faith in a fastball that sat around 94 MPH and a swinging strike rate that had been north of 11% in each of the preceding two seasons.

The former first-round pick rewarded them with his most successful year in a while. Wacha made 23 starts and tallied 127 1/3 innings, pitching to a quality 3.32 ERA. He landed on the injured list twice — first with a left intercostal strain, then with inflammation in his throwing shoulder — but generally kept runs off the board when healthy. Wacha allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his outings while holding opponents to a .233/.283/.410 line in 515 plate appearances.

Strong control helped him keep runners off base, as he walked only 6% of opponents. Wacha has established himself as a quality strike-thrower, but there also seems to have been a decent amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit just .260 on their balls in play against him, the lowest BABIP he’d allowed in five years. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball percentage were each slightly lower than the league average.

The Texas A&M product also saw minor dips in his swinging strike number and velocity. He generated whiffs on 9.5% of his pitches, below his 2020-21 levels. Wacha’s average fastball speed also lost a tick, dipping from 93.8 MPH in 2021 to an even 93 MPH this year. ERA estimators like FIP (4.14) and SIERA (4.07) each pegged his true talent a bit north of 4.00 — still useful production, but not quite as impressive as his actual ERA might suggest.

Even if Wacha’s run prevention regresses somewhat, he’s a sensible target for clubs seeking rotation help. Wacha has ten seasons of MLB experience under his belt, and he carries a 4.05 ERA in over 1100 career innings. Other than a brief spike in walks towards the end of his time in St. Louis, he’s shown consistently plus control. That kind of reliability makes him a fine fit at the back half of a contending club’s rotation.

The Orioles entered the offseason searching for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only Baltimore pitcher to top 23 starts this past season, and the O’s bought out an $11MM club option at year’s end to send him to the open market. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells and Spenser Watkins all posted serviceable or better ERA’s over 15-plus starts, but Voth was the only one with a strikeout rate around league average. Kyle Bradish had a decent strikeout rate but an ERA pushing 5.00. Mike Baumann and DL Hall joined Bradish in seeing some MLB action as rookies, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez may well have debuted this year if not for a lat injury.

The O’s had a number of internal options to compete for jobs on Brandon Hyde’s starting staff, but everyone in the mix had either limited or no track record of MLB success. Baltimore thus brought in Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal last month to add some veteran stability. They’re still expected to add another starter, and Wacha’s one of the remaining options in a free agent class that’s rapidly thinning. MLBTR predicted Wacha for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason. He’s one of five unsigned starting pitchers who’d secured a spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, alongside Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski.

Latest On Orioles’ Offseason Plans

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The Orioles have been linked to a number of free agents this winter, but so far their sole big league addition has been Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal. It seems likely there will be more moves to come for Baltimore as they look to supplement a young core that is starting to look like a contender, but Dan Connolly of The Athletic suggests it’s unlikely they’ll be handing out any long-term deals this winter. Connolly says the Orioles may look to stick more in the 2-3 year term, and while that may rule them out of a big splash, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays information from general manager Mike Elias the team has made multi-year offers to free agent pitchers.

The Orioles did have reported interest in Jameson Taillon before he signed a four-year, $68MM deal with the Cubs, while they’ve also been reportedly interested in top remaining free agent starter Carlos Rodon, as well as Noah Syndergaard. Rodon looks set to a command five or six year deal, which looks to be outside Baltimore’s comfort levels, but it’s certainly possible to see them pursuing someone like Syndergaard on a shorter-term, but still multi-year pact. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $36MM deal for him, while the likes of Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha were both predicted to receive two-year deals which could fit in to Baltimore’s plan.

On the other side of the ball, it seems Elias is casting a wide net as he searches for upgrades. Jake Rill of MLB.com relays comments from Elias citing first base, designated hitter, the corner outfield and possibly second base as positions where the Orioles could have vacant playing time.

When asked about the prospect of adding left-handed hitters, Elias has this to say: “We are in talks with players that would be in the starting nine on Opening Day, or however you want to put it. I would view the probable additions at this point that we’re talking to and see out there as guys that will come in and kind of be on the same level as our other starters.”

The team did just add left-handed hitting outfielders Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero on minor league deals, and they could well compete for a spot on the big league roster during spring training. Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander currently project as the starting outfield, with Ryan McKenna on the bench. They also just claimed lefty hitting first baseman Lewin Diaz from the Pirates, so the O’s have not been shy in adding left-handed hitters so far.

While Mazara, Cordero and Diaz are all candidates to fill spots on the bench, it seems unlikely any of them would be in the starting nine on opening day if everyone is healthy. So if the Orioles may well seek further left-handed options and are looking to keep things to shorter-term deals, the likes of Joey Gallo, Dominic Smith or Brandon Belt could appeal.

As Kubatko tweets, a starter and a left handed bat appear the top priorities for the Orioles, but the team would also like to add a veteran reliever, as well as a backup catcher on a major league deal. Dillon Tate is currently the veteran in the Orioles’ bullpen with just over three years of service time, so it makes sense that they’d look for a more experienced arm to add to that group. On the catching front, Adley Rutschman is the only backstop on the 40-man roster.

So where does this leave Baltimore as far as payroll is concerned? Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com relays that Elias says payroll is expected to increase steadily over the coming seasons. That would be appear to be in line with the sort of additions the Orioles are looking to make over the coming months. Instead of making a big splash and committing long term dollars to a single player, the team looks likely to shop around for incremental additions to support their young core.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

Orioles Sign Josh Lester To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles have signed third baseman Josh Lester to a minor league deal, according to his MLB transactions page. Lester elected free agency last month after being outrighted off the Tigers’ roster.

Lester, 28, was a September callup for the Tigers this year, getting a brief taste of the big leagues for the first time before being optioned four days later. He appeared in two games, striking out three times in his five plate appearances and failing to record a hit. He showed a fair bit of power at Triple-A, mashing 29 home runs in 621 plate appearances on the way to a .246/.311/.479 line.

Originally drafted in the 13th round of the 2015 draft, Lester spent parts of seven seasons in the minors for Detroit before finally getting his first big league action this year. He’s mostly split time between third base and first base, logging 288 games at the hot corner and 311 appearances at first.

He’ll provide a bit of corner infield depth in the upper minors for the Orioles. Although these sorts of deals often come with invites to spring training, it hasn’t been reported that Lester has received one in this case.

Orioles Sign Nomar Mazara To Minor League Deal

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1:09pm: Mazara will make $1.5MM if he cracks the major league roster, per Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner.

11:40am: The Orioles have signed outfielder Nomar Mazara to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. Presumably, he’ll be in Major League camp this spring. Mazara is repped by CAA sports.

Once considered one of baseball’s 20 to 30 best prospects, the now-27-year-old Mazara has settled in as a journeyman corner outfielder who’s played for four different big league teams over the past four seasons. Debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2016, Mazara belted 20 homers and hit .266/.320/.419 as a rookie with the Rangers but never advanced his offensive profile much beyond that point. He swatted exactly 20 homers in each of his first three MLB seasons and 19 in his fourth, but regularly did so with sub-par walk rates, on-base percentages and defense in right field.

Traded to the White Sox prior to the truncated 2020 season, Mazara bottomed out with a .228/.295/.294 batting line in 149 plate appearances with the South Siders. A 2021 stint with the Tigers didn’t yield much better results. He fared a bit better with the Padres in 2022, although this year’s .264/.316/.352 batting line in 171 plate appearances wasn’t exactly a standout showing. In nearly 2700 MLB plate appearances, Mazara is a .256/.315/.414 hitter  — including just a .235/.295/.324 slash since leaving Texas after the 2019 season.

The Orioles have been seeking left-handed bats who can potentially help them in the outfield corners, at first base or at designated hitter, and Mazara fits that description, even if he’s been a roughly average hitter in the big leagues at his best. He’ll have to earn a spot on the team this spring, and if he’s unable to do so, he could head to Triple-A Norfolk and serve as a depth option in  the event of an injury.

Orioles Agree To One-Year Deal With Kyle Gibson

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TODAY: Gibson signed for one year and $10MM, Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The O’s continue to look for more veteran pitching, and “anyone who’s out there” on the market is a possibility.  This includes starters who have turned down qualifying offers.  In other Gibson news, the Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the right-hander, and The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that Gibson took Baltimore’s offer over an identical one-year, $10MM deal with Toronto.

DECEMBER 3: The Orioles have strengthened their rotation, with veteran starter Kyle Gibson agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical.

It’d been widely reported that the Orioles were in the market for starting pitching additions, and Gibson gives them a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. They’ve been linked to a number of other starting pitchers this off-season, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Gibson isn’t the only one joining the team this winter.

Gibson, 35, had a 5.05 ERA across 167 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2022. Advanced metrics were a bit more favorable, and his FIP stood at 4.28. He did post the best walk rate of his career (6.7%), and while his strikeout numbers have never jumped off the page they were 1.5% better than his career rate of 18.6%.

Gibson was drafted by the Twins with the 22nd pick of the 2009 draft, and made his debut 2013. He struggled a bit initially, but soon settled in as a durable arm at the back of their rotation. He’d go on to make 188 starts across seven seasons for the Twins, peaking in 2018 when he made 32 starts for a 3.62 ERA, almost a full run below his average while in Minnesota.

After reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2019 season, Gibson latched on with the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal. He struggled a bit in the pandemic-shortened season but straightened things out in 2021, pitching to a 2.87 ERA across 19 starts and turning himself into a valuable trade chip for the Rangers at the deadline that year.

Advanced metrics did have him ripe for regression that year, and he did drop off a bit after the Phillies acquired him, pitching to a 5.09 ERA the rest of the way in 2021.

His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he mixes that with a slider, curveball and changeup, as well as a cutter that’s been introduced in recent seasons. It’s the durability that Gibson is noted for though, and apart from his rookie year (and the pandemic season), he’s made at least 25 starts in the other eight full seasons.

He slots into a rotation that features Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Austin Voth – none of whom have ever reached 25 starts in a big league season. Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is also likely to feature in 2023, but as a rookie they’ll be keeping a close eye on his workload.

From here, it seems likely the Orioles will pursue another addition to the rotation as they look to supplement their young roster. The likes of Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker would all make sense for Baltimore, and while Gibson can certainly work as a valuable innings-eater, adding one of those names would give their rotation a bit more punch as they look to build off their promising 83-79 2022 season.

Thomas Eshelman Takes Coaching Job With Padres

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Right-hander Thomas Eshelman announced his retirement after eight professional seasons, and the former Orioles hurler is now moving into the coaching ranks as a pitching coach in the Padres organization.

“Officially on the other side of the fence,” the 28-year-old Eshelman wrote as part of his official statement on his Twitter feed.  “I’ve been blessed to be able to play the game I love for so long and I’m excited to share the things that I’ve learned and will continue to learn with the generations to come.”

The right-hander only appeared with the Orioles at the MLB level, posting a 5.77 ERA over 98 1/3 innings with Baltimore during the 2019-21 seasons.  However, Eshelman was a member of four different organizations during his career, beginning with the Astros when Houston selected him in the second round of the 2015 draft.  He only lasted a few months in Houston, as the Astros dealt Eshelman to the Phillies that offseason as part of a memorable seven-player deal.  That same swap saw Ken Giles land in Houston, while Vince Velasquez and former first overall pick Mark Appel were among the players who joined Eshelman in Philadelphia.

Eshelman was traded to Baltimore in June 2019, which gave the right-hander his first crack at the majors.  Working mostly as a starter in the minors, Eshelman became a swingman with the O’s, getting some starts in the rotation and otherwise acting in a multi-inning relief role.  Eshelman was designated for assignment several times over his three years with the Orioles, and departed the team for good when he signed a minors deal with the Padres last winter.  In what ended up as his final pro season, Eshelman had 5.76 ERA over 114 combined innings with San Diego’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.

Eshelman hails from Carlsbad, California and played his college ball at Cal State-Fullerton.  As he noted in his Twitter statement, his “next journey in this game I love” will come with his “hometown team,” giving him an ideal environment to begin his coaching endeavors.  MLBTR congratulates Eshelman on his playing career and we wish him all the best in the coaching ranks.

Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles Among Teams Pursuing Jameson Taillon

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Right-hander Jameson Taillon is one of the top names on the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers this winter, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among the teams pursuing him. The Mets were already known to have interest in Taillon, as SNY’s Andy Martino recently reported that they made a strong effort to close a deal with the right-hander last week. Martino noted that with Justin Verlander atop the Mets’ priority list, the Mets might not be inclined to beat the market for Taillon.

Any of the four teams in today’s report would represent a perfectly logical landing spot for Taillon, who did not receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and thus can be signed without the forfeiture of any draft picks or international bonus space. There’s some injury risk, to be sure, as Taillon has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and heavy contracts for two-time Tommy John patients are fairly rare.

That said, however, Taillon has reestablished himself as a quality mid-rotation hurler since his 2021 return from that second ligament replacement operation. In two seasons with the Yankees, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect pitched to a combined 4.08 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a strong 5.7% walk rate. The Yankees carefully monitored his workload in his first post-surgery season in ’21, as Taillon averaged just shy of five innings per start in his 29 trips to the mound. However, he averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in 2022, improved his ERA, lowered his walk rate and upped his ground-ball rate.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets have been fairly aggressive in their early efforts to land Taillon, as they recently lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers and also saw each of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams reach free agency this winter. At the moment, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill would comprise the top four spots in manager Buck Showalter’s rotation.

Even with a pronounced need in the rotation, the Mets are still projected by Roster Resource to carry a $234.7MM payroll — with a hearty $246.6MM of luxury obligations on hand at present. The Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’d be a second-time offender and thus face steeper penalties in 2023. They’re facing a 30% tax on the first $20MM over the tax line, plus 42% for the next $20MM, 75% for the next $20MM and 90% on any money spent thereafter.

The Phillies, too, are trending toward being a repeat luxury tax payor. Though they’re currently more than $40MM shy of the $233MM tax barrier, they’re known to be heavily interested in the high-end shortstops in free agency and are also looking into rotation help (hence the apparent Taillon interest). Taillon would slot into the rotation behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, joining Ranger Suarez and likely Bailey Falter to form the starting five in Philly. Prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry loom in the upper minors.

From a financial perspective, it’s different story for the Cubs and Orioles, neither of whom are anywhere near the luxury tax. Both clubs, however, are looking to add some win-now pieces after rebuilding efforts of varying extent. The Cubs have Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele locked into rotation spots in 2023, but the fourth and fifth spots remain more fluid. Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski are all candidates currently, but it seems likely Chicago will add at least one starting pitcher this winter.

Over in Baltimore, the O’s have already agreed to a one-year deal with Kyle Gibson, but Taillon would be more of a statement addition who’s viewed as a multi-year piece of the puzzle. Beyond Gibson, the O’s have Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann, Spenser Watkins and Mike Baumann as options, to say nothing of top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Baltimore also hopes to welcome lefty John Means back from Tommy John surgery later in the 2023 season.

There are surely plenty of other clubs who’ve held discussions with Taillon and his representatives at Excel Sports. That he’s one of the non-ace starters who’s still reasonably young — he’ll pitch all of next season at 31 — and won’t require any draft compensation could make interest sufficient enough to make him one of the first notable starters off the board. We ranked Taillon 14th on our annual Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year deal at $56MM

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