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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

By Connor Byrne | July 15, 2019 at 6:57pm CDT

Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).
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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Belt Franmil Reyes Justin Smoak Kole Calhoun Trey Mancini

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Mychal Givens Drawing Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | July 15, 2019 at 9:51am CDT

The Orioles made their first of what will likely be several trades over the weekend when they dealt Andrew Cashner to the Red Sox, and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that closer Mychal Givens is drawing interest and is “definitely” available — a departure from recent seasons under previous front office management. The Phillies and Nationals, in particular, have interest in Givens, per the report. Obviously, a deal with the Nats would be difficult to hammer out when the two clubs continue to be embroiled in the ongoing dispute over MASN television rights fees.

Givens’ 2019 numbers are pedestrian at first glance. The right-hander’s 4.50 ERA is wholly unremarkable, and even last season’s 3.99 mark hardly generates excitement. Front offices aren’t going to put much stock in earned run average when evaluating a pitcher, however, particularly amid 2019’s home run deluge. Givens entered the season having averaged well less than a homer per nine innings pitched in his career, but he’s served up eight long balls in 36 innings in 2019. That’s led to a spike in his ERA, but it’s of some note that nine of the 18 earned runs he’s given up this year were surrendered in a combined two outings (a four-run meltdown in June and a five-run outing in May — both fueled by homers).

Looking beyond his ho-hum ERA, Givens offers a fair bit of intrigue. First and foremost, this year’s 12.8 K/9 and 34.5 percent overall strikeout rate are easily career-best marks. He’s also sporting a career-high 15.3 percent swinging-strike rate and 32 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches. Givens’ 95.1 mph average fastball is right in line with his career rate, and the spin rate on that heater checks into the 77th percentile among MLB hurlers.

A rudimentary look at Givens’ splits reveals what many would expect to be the case: his home park hasn’t done him any favors. Six of the eight long ball surrendered by Givens have come at Camden Yards. On the road, opponents have managed an awful .185/.286/.315 output against him.

Digging a bit deeper, opposing hitters have posted a .350 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against Givens, but that’s almost entirely a function of the aforementioned home run issues. He’s yielded just a .217 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage thus far on the season. Based on the quality of contact he’s allowed, Statcast projects an expected wOBA of just .297 — significantly lower than the league average of .324 (excluding pitchers).

With any trade candidate, the player’s contract plays a sizable role in driving trade interest. In the case of Givens, the Orioles are in an advantageous position. He’s earning a minimal $2.15MM in 2019 and is controlled via arbitration through the 2021 season. With only about $890K of this season’s salary yet to be paid out, Givens is affordable for any contender and can also be viewed as a relatively long-term option, both of which should fuel interest between now and July 31. He may not be as appealing a trade chip as teammate Trey Mancini, but Givens is the highest-valued asset the Orioles seem decidedly likely to move.

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Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Mychal Givens

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Dylan Bundy Hopes To Return From IL When First Eligible

By Anthony Franco | July 14, 2019 at 11:22am CDT

  • While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
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Red Sox Acquire Andrew Cashner

By Ty Bradley | July 13, 2019 at 7:35pm CDT

7:35pm: The Orioles are picking up exactly $1.78MM, per Rosenthal. They’ll also cover “most” of the performance bonuses Cashner could earn, according to Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com.

5:30pm: Baltimore will pay approximately half of the ~$3.36MM in guarantees left on Cashner’s deal, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Orioles also owe Cashner $1.5MM in signing bonus money in both 2020 and ’21.

4:32pm: The Red Sox have acquired righty Andrew Cashner and cash considerations for prospects Elio Prado and Noelberth Romero, the Orioles have reported.

Cashner, 32, was famously swapped straight-up for Anthony Rizzo in a 2011 trade between the Cubs and Padres. After a breakout 2013 campaign, in which the hard-throwing righty posted a 3.09 ERA/3.35 FIP (2.6 fWAR) in 26 starts, it’s been mostly unfulfilled promise for the former first-rounder. The TCU product was smashed in the first season of a two-year, $16MM deal he signed with Baltimore prior to the 2018 campaign, with a near-league-low 5.82 K/9 against 3.82 BB/9 en route to a 0.6 fWAR season in 28 starts.

He’s been better this year, though his K rate remains among the league’s lowest and peripheral markers (4.25 FIP, 4.88 xFIP) are non-believers in the sustainability of his 3.83 ERA. Cashner’s average fastball velocity, once an eye-popping 98.8 MPH in predominant relief for the 2012 Padres, now sits at a barely-above-league average 94.0. He’s mostly scrapped the bread-and-butter sinker he featured so prominently from 2013-18, overhauling his repertoire back to the four-seam/changeup/slider mix with which he began his career. Returns have been positive: his 8.7% swinging-strike rate is his highest since transitioning full-time to a big-league rotation, and his chase rate’s bettered the standard he established from 2016-18. Cashner’s grounder-heavy repertoire should play well in Fenway Park, with any opposite-side power somewhat neutralized by the ballpark’s spacious right-field dimensions.

Andrew Cashner

Our own Steve Adams offered ample justification for transitioning the righty back to a late-inning role, but it appears such a move won’t be in the short-term cards for the Bo Sox. Cashner will apparently start Tuesday’s game for Boston, with GM Dave Dombrowski noting that the move eases the undue stress the club’s bullpen has endured thus far. Cashner’s two-year deal includes a $10MM vesting option for 2020 should the righty eclipse the 187 inning mark this year, a fact of which his acquiring club is surely aware.

Boston’s rotation has been solid this season, though it’s true that the fifth spot has been a sore one. Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson, Ryan Weber, Josh A. Smith and Darwinzon Hernandez have each tried their hands, to less-than-stellar results, and the club had no clear fill-in at the minors’ upper levels. Nathan Eovaldi is set to return soon, but the team expects to plug him straight in to its beleaguered closer’s role.

Both Prado and Romero, 17, will transition from the Red Sox Dominican Summer League affiliate to that of the Orioles. Neither are big-time bonus babies, and reports are scarce, but Orioles GM Mike Elias does have ample experience scouting in Latin America from his time with the Cardinals and Astros organizations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Newsstand Transactions Andrew Cashner

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Orioles Place Dylan Bundy On Injured List

By TC Zencka | July 13, 2019 at 12:02pm CDT

The Orioles placed starting pitcher Dylan Bundy on the 10-day injured list with right knee tendinitis, the team announced today. Pitcher Tayler Scott was recalled from Triple-A.

Bundy underwent a medical exam this morning after feeling discomfort during yesterday’s shellacking at the hands of the Rays, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Bundy and the Orioles will sleep better chalking this one up to the injury after Bundy suffered through an 8-hit, 7-run barrage in his shortest outing of the year. He was pulled after one inning. The cavalry didn’t fare much better against the Rays, as Gabriel Ynoa wore the damage a day before they’d planned to use him in a piggyback role. Ynoa was ultimately tagged with 9 runs, 7 earned in 5 1/3 innings.

Bundy took the loss, falling to 4-11 on the year. In 18 starts, Bundy has a 5.28 ERA (5.30 FIP) with a 3.03 strikeout to walk ratio while lobbing 2.1 home runs per nine innings. His numbers took a hit with yesterday’s loss, of course, but the overall numbers aren’t far off what the Orioles have come used to seeing out of Bundy.

Scott, 27, is recalled for the first time since being acquired from the Mariners. He made two starts and three bullpen appearances in Seattle, serving up 10 earned runs in just 7 2/3 innings of work. The South African native was a 5th round draft pick of the Cubs in 2011. David Hess, meanwhile, will serve as the 26th man for today’s doubleheader, a role with which he is by now quite familiar.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Dylan Bundy Tayler Scott

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Orioles Outright Matt Wotherspoon To Triple-A

By Steve Adams | July 11, 2019 at 8:11pm CDT

  • The Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk announced several roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Matt Wotherspoon was outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers.  Wotherspoon was designated for assignment last week, and this marks the second time this season that the O’s outrighted him off their 40-man roster.  Now in his sixth pro season, Wotherspoon made his Major League debut earlier this year, getting hit hard for eight earned runs over 4 2/3 innings for Baltimore.
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Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Chih-Wei Hu Deolis Guerra Matt Wotherspoon

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Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ Deadline Approach, Organizational Progress

By Jeff Todd | July 11, 2019 at 9:01am CDT

Rookie Orioles GM Mike Elias held a long and interesting chat with Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription link), touching upon a host of topics of interest to the broader player market. The full interview transcript is essential reading for fans of the Baltimore organization, in particular, but we’ll cover a few key bits of hot stove relevance here.

Though the Orioles roster isn’t exactly brimming with trade chips, it does have a few of note. Elias says that trade chatter volume is “already very high.” Deadline work is “really the main thing that the front office staff and I are spending our time on now in the month of July.”

While he wasn’t willing and/or able to predict how many moves the O’s will end up swinging this summer, Elias left no doubt that he’s ready for action. He did drop a few clues on some key player assets as well. Elias suggested the Orioles put a high value on reliever Mychal Givens, saying that “he’s striking out more people than ever and is throwing really hard.” While the results haven’t been there for Givens, he figures to be a target of contenders in search of pen upgrades — as we discussed in ranking him the top O’s trade candidate.

The most valuable potential summer trade piece on the roster is surely outfielder Trey Mancini, a player examined not long back by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk. Elias largely reiterated his previously stated stance on Mancini, calling him “a very big part of the future of this team” while reiterating that the team is “in a position in our competitive cycle where we need to be open to anything that comes our way.”

On paper, the single likeliest player to be moved is starter Andrew Cashner. Prior reporting indicates the organization is unsurprisingly quite willing to do so. The veteran righty threw his trade status into some uncertainty with some ambiguous recent comments (also in a chat with Connolly) in which he suggested he’d need to decide whether to accept a trade despite lacking no-trade protection. Elias wisely skirted the topic, saying: “I don’t read too much into it. It’s not anything that we’ve discussed.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a matter of no moment whatsoever. MLBTR’s Steve Adams has argued that Cashner ought to be shifted into a relief role; some clubs would surely consider him as such, particularly entering the postseason. They’ll want assurances that the hurler will report if they strike a deal, making some added work for Elias to avoid complications. The GM heaped praise upon Cashner, saying that he has enjoyed “a big bounceback” and “looks terrific.” No doubt the O’s will hope they can massage the situation and come away with a decent return.

If interest never develops on Cashner, it could still make sense to hang onto him. After all, the club has an interest in filling innings even in a hopeless season. Elias discussed the difficulty of keeping palatable arms on the roster. To his credit, he didn’t sugarcoat the situation or pull punches, acknowledging that the organization has had to rely on players that may not quite have been prepared for the challenge. “They’re working hard,” he said of the many members of the staff, “but it’s difficult to come up and compete in the major leagues [and] in this division against major-league hitters if you don’t have major-league command or major-league stuff or some combination of the two of those things.” The O’s hope to build out greater depth to further “stabilize” the pitching situation. “I think we’ve made some minor additions recently in the past couple weeks and we’ll continue to do that,” said Elias.

That doesn’t mean the long-term focus will change, of course. Elias cited “three broad goals” and identified progress in each area. “[E]levating the talent level across the organization” was an obvious key. The top Baltimore baseball decisionmaker says he was pleased with recent amateur efforts. He calls 1-1 draft pick Adley Rutschman “a player that, across draft years, is somebody that stands out.” Elias also praised the organization’s international efforts: “it was just important for us to get it going and I think that we even exceeded our own expectations.”

Of equal importance for long-term sustainability, Elias gave a glimpse of some of the less visible work being done:

“We also want to elevate the capabilities of our baseball operations department and we have certainly done that on the international side. But [Vice President & Assistant General Manager, Analytics] Sig Mejdal and staff are doing so much behind the scenes to equip our decision-makers and our player development people and our scouting people with tools that they need to do their jobs well and compete around the league and provide us with an edge, one day, in terms of our decision-making and our capabilities. And we’ve got a lot going on there. And we’ve also got all kinds of projects going on behind the scenes in terms of planning with infrastructure, with facilities and all that’s happening. And happening with the support and involvement of ownership. So, I really think we’re moving things in the right direction this year, in a big way. We’re doing it fast and we’re gonna keep going.”

In one other area of particular contractual interest, Elias again addressed the subject of highly paid former slugging star Chris Davis. The 33-year-old has had some moments this year, but there’s no denying that his problems are far from resolved. Elias reiterated the team’s commitment to Davis:

“He’s a big part of this team and this team’s history and we’ve got him here. So it makes sense for everyone to try to make the most of the situation and get him back to where he needs to be. We think it’s possible. And we’ve seen flashes of it and it’s a big priority for us.”

While one wonders whether the O’s will eventually have a breaking point with Davis, who’s owed $23MM annually through 2022 (a chunk of it deferred), the club obviously isn’t there yet.

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Baltimore Orioles Andrew Cashner Chris Davis Mychal Givens Trey Mancini

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Orioles’ Josh Lucas Accepts Outright Assignment

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2019 at 5:33pm CDT

Orioles righty Josh Lucas cleared waivers and has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk, per a team announcement. He was designated for assignment when Baltimore claimed former A’s righty Aaron Brooks off waivers. Brooks has now been formally added to Baltimore’s big league roster, the team also announced.

It’s the second time that Lucas, 28, has accepted an outright assignment with the Orioles this season rather than head out into free agency. In two stints with the big league club, Lucas has pitched to a 5.74 ERA. To his credit, Lucas has 16 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings and has continually shown an ability to keep the ball on the ground at an above-average clip. He’s not a hard thrower, averaging 90-91 mph on his heater, but he’s nevertheless managed to be fairly stingy in terms of surrendering home runs throughout his minor league career.

In 114 career innings of Triple-A ball, Lucas has a 3.47 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.5 HR/9. Given the patchwork state of the Orioles’ roster, it seems quite possible that another opportunity in the Majors could present itself later in the year (which undoubtedly factored into Lucas’ decision to accept the assignment).

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Josh Lucas

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Trey Mancini Drawing Interest

By Dylan A. Chase | July 6, 2019 at 9:40pm CDT

To state that the Baltimore Orioles figure to be deadline sellers would be an understatement. At 27-61, the Orioles are likely on a fast-track to the #1 overall pick in the 2020 Rule Four draft, and it’s no secret that teams at such a juncture are often the most eager to unload veteran assets for pieces that more neatly fit within the next contention window.

Of course, a bigger issue for a team like the Orioles is what, if any, pieces are on hand that would attract serious attention from clubs in search of improvement. After trading star third baseman Manny Machado at last year’s deadline, Baltimore’s Opening Day lineup this season consisted mostly of lightly regarded journeymen and faded former standouts like Jonathan Villar and Chris Davis. One member of that Opening Day lineup, however, has begun to generate serious trade interest in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).

After a 2018 season that saw him regress to below-average league offensive levels (93 wRC+), outfielder Trey Mancini has reasserted himself this year as a high-caliber big league bat. From an offensive standpoint, Mancini’s .297 /.354 /.528 slash line (130 wRC+) would seem to represent a marked improvement over the outfield options of many clubs, even if defensive metrics continue to dog the 27-year-old’s performance on the grass. At worst, Mancini would seem to profile as a cheap, controllable DH option for an acquiring AL club.

Rosenthal does point out, however, that such cheap control could actually prove to be an impediment to a potential trade. Mancini, who will carry an arbitration figure for the first time next season, is currently making the league minimum, and–as a productive and recognizable Orioles player–he could be considered more valuable to the O’s franchise than to any other club. It may be just as reasonable, based on that viewpoint, to speculate the Orioles could play the wait-and-see game on Mancini’s market – perhaps with an eye on an offseason deal.

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Report: Orioles “Certainly Would” Trade Andrew Cashner

By Connor Byrne | July 6, 2019 at 6:57pm CDT

Orioles general manager Mike Elias suggested in late June it would be difficult for the starter-starved club to part with either Dylan Bundy or Andrew Cashner prior to the July 31 trade deadline. However, at least in Cashner’s case, Baltimore “certainly would” part with the right-hander, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Elias has been “checking the Cashner market for quite a while,” Kubatko adds.

The Orioles obviously haven’t found a taker for Cashner yet, though he has upped his value with a resurgent year. After Cashner’s disastrous 2018, his first season as an Oriole, it would have been difficult to envision him emerging as a trade chip this summer. But the 32-year-old has come out of the gates this season with a 3.83 ERA/4.26 FIP, 6.17 K/9 against 2.71 BB/9, and a 49.2 percent groundball rate in 96 1/3 innings. Cashner turned in his fifth consecutive quality start Saturday, throwing seven innings of one-run ball in Toronto.

Cashner’s success in 2019 has come thanks in part to an ability to stymie opposite-handed hitters, whom he has limited to a paltry .229 weighted on-base average. At the same time, Cashner has held enemy lineups to a .273 wOBA the first time through the order, a .311 mark the second time and a .312 figure the third time. Cashner’s better output has come with an increase in velocity. He averaged 92.4 mph on his fastball a year ago, but the number has revisited its 93.5 mph mean from 2017 – a season in which he defied uninspiring peripherals to post a 3.40 ERA with the Rangers. He landed a two-year, $16MM deal from the O’s the next winter as a result.

Cashner’s on track to reach free agency again during the upcoming offseason, and he is owed approximately $3.7MM of his current $8MM salary in the meantime. Considering Cashner is not a major difference-maker at this stage of his career, Baltimore might have to eat some of his remaining money to augment his trade value in the next few weeks. If Cashner keeps pitching well until then, though, he may indeed end the season with a playoff contender.

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