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Orioles Rumors

Latest On Nationals’ Sales Process, MASN Deal

By Anthony Franco | November 2, 2022 at 12:04am CDT

As the Lerner family continues to explore a sale of the Nationals, the franchise’s ongoing dispute with the Orioles over television rights fees looms. Major League Baseball has renewed its efforts to try to broker an agreement between the franchises, write Barry Svrluga, Chelsea Janes and Ben Strauss of the Washington Post. The Talk Nats blog first reported last month that MLB was getting involved in trying to bring the sides together.

As both the Washington Post and Talk Nats have covered during the sales process, the TV rights dispute presents a fair bit of uncertainty for prospective Nationals buyers. As part of the relocation efforts to move the franchise from Montreal to Washington nearly two decades ago, the Nationals agreed to tie their local broadcasting rights to the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. MASN is jointly owned by the Nats and Orioles, but the Orioles’ ownership share is roughly 77% while the Nats own around 23%. That agreement, a condition of the franchise’s relocation into the Orioles’ geographic territorial rights, caps the Nationals’ TV revenue by making it impermissible for them to sell broadcasting rights to a regional sports network.

The Post notes the original agreement expressly stipulates that the Nationals’ obligations under the MASN deal would carry over in the event of a sale of a franchise. Thus, the unfavorable TV situation is a key consideration for those in discussions with the Lerners.

That’s all the more true in light of recent movement on that front. As Talk Nats and the Post have each reported, a group led by Ted Leonsis now appears to be the frontrunner in the sales process. Leonsis’ Monumental Sports & Entertainment also owns the NHL’s Capitals, the NBA’s Wizards and the WNBA’s Mystics, as well as having full control of NBC Sports Washington. Finding a way to broadcast games on NBCS Washington figures to be a key objective for Leonsis if his group eventually purchases the Nats, but they’d need to negotiate a settlement with the Orioles to buy out of their end of the MASN agreement to do so. Whether the Baltimore franchise would have interest in such an arrangement isn’t clear.

Of course, there’s a strong interest on MLB’s part in facilitating some kind of settlement. Both Talk Nats and the Post have suggested the TV rights uncertainty has slowed down the sale process, and it raises some questions about the franchise’s price point. The league would prefer to see the Nationals sold for a high price (and, to a lesser extent, to expedite the process). The Lerner family has reportedly sought around $2.5 billion.

Hanging over the potential negotiations is an acrimonious past between the Orioles and Nats that hasn’t been resolved. Disputes about the Nationals’ share of TV rights led to litigation that has been pending for nearly a decade. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and the appeal has still yet to get on the docket for the New York Court of Appeals.

Interestingly, while an eventual sale to Leonsis still appears to be the likeliest outcome, one person familiar with the process tells the Post a number of paths remain possible. That source suggests the Lerners could still retain majority control in the long run, or perhaps bring in a minority owner initially with a longer-term path to majority ownership. (As an example of that sort of arrangement, the Guardians agreed to a sale in June that sees incoming buyer David Blitzer purchase roughly 25-30% of the franchise initially but have the right to purchase majority control six years down the line).

As the parties try to iron through the TV deal and potential sale, the Nationals’ on-field product is coming off an MLB-worst 55-107 season. They’re firmly amidst a rebuild and have cut back payroll dramatically. The franchise has approached $200MM on player payrolls in the past, but Roster Resource calculates their 2023 expenditures (including arbitration estimates) around $98MM. Svrulga, Strauss and Janes write that a few of the team’s baseball operations staffers have expressed some uncertainty about the organization’s spending capacity and overall direction this winter. Both manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo will stick around, at least, with the club picking up 2023 options on each this past summer.

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Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals Mark Lerner Ted Leonsis

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MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

By Anthony Franco | November 1, 2022 at 6:47pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Andres Gimenez Brendan Donovan Brendan Rodgers Christian Walker DJ LeMahieu Dansby Swanson Ian Happ J.T. Realmuto Jeremy Pena Jose Trevino Kyle Tucker Max Fried Mookie Betts Myles Straw Nolan Arenado Ramon Urias Shane Bieber Steven Kwan Trent Grisham Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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The Opener: World Series, Pujols, Orioles

By Nick Deeds | November 1, 2022 at 7:59am CDT

Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups

Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.

2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires

The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.

3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023

BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.

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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals The Opener Albert Pujols Ramon Urias Willson Contreras

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Orioles Outright Aramis Garcia and Chris Ellis

By Maury Ahram | October 30, 2022 at 12:20pm CDT

The Orioles have announced that they have outrighted catcher Aramis Garcia and pitcher Chris Ellis to Triple-A Norfolk. They now have 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Garcia was claimed from the Reds on October 15th, and quickly passed through the Orioles’ waivers. He was projected to earn only $800K during his first trip through arbitration, but Cincinnati opted to cut him loose with Tyler Stephenson entrenched as the team’s primary catcher. Garcia dealt with a left middle finger sprain during the 2022 season that forced him to the 60-day injured list, limiting the former second-round pick to 47 games where he slashed a weak .213/.248/.259 with a single homer. The 29-year-old has a better track record in Triple-A, where he has hit .264/.329/.447 across parts of four seasons.

The Orioles primarily relied on a combination of Robinson Chirinos and Anthony Bemboom to supplement Adley Rutschman in 2022. With Chirinos’ impending free agency, it is likely that Garcia will join Bemboom in competing for a backup catcher position in the spring, with the defeated remaining a depth piece in Triple-A.

Ellis, a former third-round pick, underwent season-ending arthroscopic shoulder surgery in early May after dealing with shoulder inflammation. He struggled in his two starts this year, pitching only 4 1/3 innings and allowing 5 runs while walking 6 batters before being placed on the injured list. Ellis is arbitration-eligible after the 2024 season.

Nevertheless, Ellis had a strong start to his Orioles career in 2021 after being waived by the Rays. With the Birds, he made six starts (25 1/3 innings) and pitched to a 2.49 ERA. However, advanced metrics weren’t so bullish, giving Ellis a high 5.22 FIP due in part to his low 15.2% strikeout rate and a high 12.4% walk rate. Additionally, Ellis has a career 6.02 ERA in 318 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level across parts of six seasons.

 

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Aramis Garcia Chris Ellis

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Matt Harvey Undergoes Knee Surgery, Hopes To Pitch In 2023

By Anthony Franco | October 28, 2022 at 8:53pm CDT

Right-hander Matt Harvey underwent knee surgery last month, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It isn’t clear whether the procedure is expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, but Boras tells Sherman that Harvey plans to attempt to make it back to the majors next year.

The 2022 campaign was the first since 2014 in which Harvey didn’t pitch in the majors. He missed the ’14 campaign rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but had otherwise been a fairly frequent presence in the big leagues since his 2012 debut. After a few ace-level performances through 2015, he’s consistently struggled. Harvey has settled into journeyman territory, pitching for five different teams and posting a combined 6.00 ERA in 354 innings since the start of the 2018 season.

Over the offseason, Harvey testified to providing former teammate Tyler Skaggs with Percocet in the trial against former Angels communications director Eric Kay. Kay was convicted of providing Skaggs with the drugs that led to his death, while Harvey was granted immunity from criminal prosecution for his testimony. That raised the possibility of an MLB-levied suspension for drug distribution. The Orioles re-signed him to a minor league contract in April, and Harvey was suspended for 60 games in mid-May.

After serving that ban, Harvey reported to Baltimore’s top affiliate in Norfolk. He started 10 games for the Tides, putting up a 4.31 ERA through 54 1/3 innings. That decent run prevention was in spite of a modest 18.5% strikeout rate and an untenable 2.32 home runs allowed per nine innings. Harvey didn’t pitch after September 8, presumably on account of the knee issue, and didn’t appear in the majors.

The 33-year-old (34 in March) will hit the open market again this offseason. It remains to be seen whether he’ll land another minor league contract with a big league club.

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Baltimore Orioles Matt Harvey

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Orioles To Add Cody Asche To MLB Coaching Staff

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2022 at 8:19pm CDT

The Orioles are set to add Cody Asche to their major league coaching staff, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. He’ll take on the role of offensive strategy coach. The remainder of Brandon Hyde’s staff is expected to return for 2023, Kubatko adds, meaning the O’s are just adding an extra position.

It’ll be the first big league coaching work for the 32-year-old Asche. A University of Nebraska product, he’s a former fourth-round draftee of the Phillies. Asche reached the majors with the Phils midway through the 2013 campaign and spent the next few seasons in a fairly regular role bouncing between third base and the corner outfield. Asche spent part of the 2017 season with the White Sox, then played the next two years in the upper minors. His playing career wrapped up with the cancelation of the minor league campaign in 2020.

Asche began his post-playing endeavors in 2021, serving as a Low-A hitting coach in the Philadelphia organization. He joined the Orioles this year, spending this past season as a hitting coordinator in Baltimore’s upper minors. He’ll quickly make a jump to the MLB coaching ranks, while Anthony Villa takes over additional responsibilities as the organization’s minor league hitting coordinator, per Kubatko.

Hyde, a potential AL Manager of the Year candidate, will be back for a fifth season at the helm. Fred González returns as bench coach, while the O’s will again deploy co-hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte with Chris Holt as pitching coach.

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Baltimore Orioles Brandon Hyde Cody Asche

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The Orioles Struck Waiver Gold Last November

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2022 at 3:12pm CDT

The last time left-hander Cionel Perez was tagged on a post at MLBTR was 11 months ago, when the Orioles announced they’d claimed him off waivers from the Reds. Ditto righty Bryan Baker, whom the Orioles claimed from the Blue Jays two weeks prior. They were the definition of innocuous offseason moves at the time: a last-place team claiming a pair of little-known relievers who’d been waived by non-playoff clubs performing garden-variety 40-man roster maintenance. The moves were met with the expected cynicism associated with waiver claims of this ilk.

At the time, it wasn’t wholly clear whether either would even survive the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Perez was out of minor league options, so he’d have to win a big league spot during Spring Training or else be subjected to waivers a second time. It’s not at all uncommon for fringe 40-man players in that spot to eventually be designated for assignment when a team signs a free agent, acquires an established player via trade, or claims someone else on waivers.

Fortunately for the O’s, both Perez and Baker indeed survived the winter on their 40-man roster. Perez fired six shutout innings with just three hits and two walks against seven strikeouts during the truncated Spring Training. Baker tossed four innings of one-run ball. Both found their way onto the Opening Day roster. Prior to this year, Perez had pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 50 2/3 MLB innings, including a 6.38 mark in 2021. Baker had one MLB inning to his name.

Before long, Perez found himself building a strong start to his 2022 season, however, solidifying his hold on a place in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen. He opened the year with 9 2/3 shutout frames, and while an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio along the way was a bit less impressive, he followed that strong first month with seven more innings of one-run ball and an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio. By the time the Orioles’ game on June 1 drew to a close, Perez had pitched 16 2/3 innings with a 0.55 ERA, a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate and a 51.2% ground-ball rate.

Along the way, Perez increasingly began to incorporate a new pitch into his repertoire: a power sinker that averaged a hearty 96.6 mph. He’d never thrown a sinker in a Major League game before, and Perez used the offering sporadically through the season’s first three months, only flashing it 9.6% of the time. In mid-July, however, Perez committed to the pitch more decisively, and from July 16 through season’s end he used that new sinker at a 22.4% clip. His four-seamer, which he’d previously thrown 52.4% of the time, saw its usage rate dip to 36.9%.

Perez posted a sparkling ERA both pre-sinker and post-sinker, but the secondary numbers suggest that Perez’s success with the sinker was more sustainable than without. Once he leaned more heavily into the new pitch, he fanned 25.2% of his opponents, walked 9.0% of them, induced grounders at a 52.8% rate and yielded an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. Prior, those rates were 22%, 8.9%, 50% and 89.6 mph. The gains weren’t Earth-shattering, but Perez’s results were better once he gained more comfort with his new pitch. Seventy percent of the sinkers that were put into play against Perez were grounders.

Good as Perez was in 2022, there’s likely some regression in store. His .284 average on balls in play isn’t especially fortunate, but few pitchers can sustain marks as low as Perez’s 0.31 HR/9 and 4.3% homer-to-flyball ratio. He’s also unlikely to continue stranding 87.4% of his runners moving forward — a rate that ranked ninth in MLB (min. 50 innings) behind a collection of some of the game’s most proficient strikeout artists. Still, there’s not much about his 2022 season that portends a complete implosion next year.

Baker took the opposite route of Perez, getting hit hard and hit often early in his first extended look at the MLB level. Through June 19, he’d been tagged for a grisly 5.60 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The O’s opted to stick with him rather than option him to Triple-A, however, and they’re likely quite glad they did.

Baker threw his changeup less than 10% of the time in those first two-plus months but more than doubled his usage to 21.4% from late June through season’s end. Meanwhile, he continued to up his fastball velocity, averaging 97.3 mph over the final few months after sitting just 95.2 mph through his first 27 1/3 innings. From June 24 through season’s end, Baker posted a 2.13 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

It’s an open question whether he can sustain the velocity gains he picked up during the season, but his changeup was a devastating out pitch for him down the stretch. Baker finished off 48 plate appearances with a changeup in 2022, surrendering only two hits (both singles) and racking up 25 strikeouts in the process. Statcast credits him with a hearty 37.7% whiff rate on the pitch and gives his opponents credit for an expected wOBA of just .123. Hitters averaged just 83.1 mph off the bat when they put Baker’s changeup in play — with 55% of those batted balls taking the form of grounders.

Neither Perez nor Baker will draw the fanfare of up-and-coming Baltimore stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fill key roles as the team looks to continue its emergence from an arduous rebuild. Perez is controllable for another four seasons, and Baker can be controlled for five more years. There’s some obvious volatility when it comes to year-over-year performance with relievers, so perhaps Perez and/or Baker will come crashing back to Earth at some point. For now, however, the O’s have what looks like a pair of setup men they acquired for free — a quality lefty/righty combo that’ll help to form a bridge to fellow out-of-the-blue breakout Felix Bautista.

Keep in mind that this is the same Orioles team that traded another waiver wire All-Star, Jorge Lopez, prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Building quality bullpens has proven to be an Achilles heel for countless front offices, but at least for the 2022 season, the O’s made it look downright easy. Their ability to continue doing so could well be as important to turning the tide as the arrival of many of the system’s vaunted top prospects.

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Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals Bryan Baker Cionel Perez

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Baltimore Orioles

By Darragh McDonald | October 21, 2022 at 4:50pm CDT

MLBTR will be conducting team-specific chat for all 30 clubs in conjunction with our Offseason Outlook series. Darragh McDonald chatted about the Orioles Outlook. Click this link to read the transcript.

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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

By Darragh McDonald | October 21, 2022 at 9:06am CDT

After a deep rebuild that featured last-place finishes in each of the past four full seasons, the Orioles showed signs of optimism in 2022. Many of their prospects reached the majors and played well, allowing the club to flirt with postseason contention and finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. GM Mike Elias has teased that the coming offseason will involve a higher payroll, but just how aggressive will they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • John Means, LHP: $2.975MM through 2023 (arbitration-eligible for one year thereafter)

Option Decisions

  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $11MM club option with $1MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Anthony Santander (4.162): $7.5MM
  • Cam Gallagher (4.073): $1MM
  • Austin Voth (3.127): $2MM
  • Cedric Mullins (3.078): $4.4MM
  • Austin Hays (3.057): $3.1MM
  • Dillon Tate (3.048): $1.5MM
  • Jorge Mateo (3.000): $1.8MM
  • Non-tender candidate: Gallagher

Free Agents

  • Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor, Jesús Aguilar, Brett Phillips, Denyi Reyes, Anthony Castro, Richie Martin, Travis Lakins Sr.

The Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years, with few people expecting anything different going into 2022. But many of the club’s young players either made strong debuts or took steps forward, leading the team to a respectable season for the first time in recent memory. They stayed in the Wild Card race until the final week of the season and actually finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016.

What that means going forward is an open question that will be answered in the months to come. General manager Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, meaning we have no template for what it looks like when he decides to be aggressive. The club hasn’t given a multi-year contract to a free agent since Alex Cobb’s four-year deal in March 2018, before Elias was hired.

Back in August, Elias said that the O’s will “significantly escalate the payroll,” though he could mean different things by that. The highest Opening Day payroll the Orioles have ever had was the $164MM of 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though it’s been steadily declining since then. This year’s mark was just under $44MM, the lowest in the league. It would be possible for the payroll to escalate “significantly” while still remaining low compared to the other 29 clubs. But if they want to be truly aggressive, there’s little standing in their way. They have no long-term commitments whatsoever, with Means the only player on the books for 2023 and literally no one guaranteed for 2024.

If they do decide to make a sizeable commitment to a free agent, it would make the most sense for it to be a pitcher since the position player core is in decent shape. Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman made good on his top prospect status with an excellent rookie season. In 113 games, he hit .254/.362/.445 for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That would be impressive work for any batter, but it’s especially impressive for a catcher, and a rookie at that. He also got good grades from defensive metrics, allowing him to produce 5.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and cementing himself as the catcher of the future.

A Spring Training injury delayed his debut until May, meaning he’s currently short of one year of MLB service time. However, there’s a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement that gives a full year of service to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting. Rutschman will most likely finish second behind Julio Rodríguez, meaning he would have five years of club control remaining before hitting the six-year mark. That should keep Rutschman in Baltimore through at least 2027, though an extension could always lengthen the relationship and would be one way of spending aggressively.

With Rutschman entrenched for years to come, the O’s will only have to think about a backup and depth options. Robinson Chirinos got into 67 games in 2022 but is headed to free agency. In terms of in-house options, they added Anthony Bemboom to the 40-man roster just a few weeks ago to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Then there are waiver claims Cam Gallagher, Mark Kolozsvary and Aramis Garcia. If the O’s want to supplement that group, they’d be a candidate for a veteran signing, such as bringing back Chirinos or someone like Sandy León, though they could also ride with the many options they already have.

At first base, the club traded away Trey Mancini at the deadline, leaving the position in the hands of Ryan Mountcastle. His power took a step back this year, hitting just 22 home runs compared to 33 last year. Some of that is surely due to the club pushing back the left field wall, though Mountcastle was still above-average at the plate overall. His .250/.305/.423 batting line this year adds up to a wRC+ of 106, or 6% above league average. That’s fairly middle-of-the-pack production from the first base slot, meaning it’s a theoretical area they could look to upgrade. However, Mountcastle is still young, turning 26 in February, and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll likely get some time to find another gear. Jesús Aguilar, who was with the club for September and October, is reaching free agency, meaning there’s room for a backup/bench bat. Re-signing Aguilar would make some sense, though guys like Colin Moran will also be available.

The rest of the infield has some fluidity to it, thanks to the versatility of Gunnar Henderson. The club’s other top prospect, he debuted later in the season and hit .259/.348/.440 for a wRC+ of 125 in 34 games. He primarily lined up at third base in that time, though also saw some action at shortstop and second base. Jorge Mateo was the club’s primary shortstop this year, hitting at a below-average rate but still proving to be plenty useful due to his speed and defense. His .221/.267/.379 batting line only amounted to an 82 wRC+, but he also stole 35 bases and was unanimously praised by advanced defensive metrics. With Rougned Odor reaching free agency, second base is up for grabs, though there are internal options. Ramón Urías hit .248/.305/.414 for a wRC+ of 104 while playing second, third and short. Terrin Vavra spent some time at the keystone but also in the outfield.

Many people have opined that the O’s should target one of the big four free agent shortstops this winter (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), given their lack of payroll commitments and ability to shuffle their current infielders around. While that level of aggressiveness would certainly be exciting, there are reasons to suspect they will dedicate their resources elsewhere. Joseph Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday are all infielders and considered to be among the top 100 prospects in the game by FanGraphs, while Baseball America has Holliday and Jordan Westburg on their list. Holliday is just 18 and still years away from the majors, but Ortiz and Westburg both reached Triple-A in 2022, with Mayo getting as high as Double-A. The O’s might want a path available for these players to force their way into the big league picture throughout 2023.

The outfield also saw a prospect debut this year, as Kyle Stowers came up and hit .253/.306/.418 for a wRC+ of 107 in 34 games. He should slot next to Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as the club’s regular outfield mix. Anthony Santander will also be around, though he has the least defensive acumen of the group and could potentially see significant time as the designated hitter. Just like on the infield, there are future reinforcements coming on the grass. Colton Cowser is considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He got as high as Triple-A in 2022 and will likely make his MLB debut in 2023.

With lots of depth on the position player side of things, the O’s should have plenty of opportunities on the trade market. Perhaps they believe in Cowser enough to explore a trade of Hays, opening up the outfield picture a bit. With a bevy of infield prospects on the way, maybe they feel they can make a move there. Trading away someone at the big league level like Mateo or Urías is a possibility. But they could also trade away one of their many prospects for immediate help.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s less certainty. Seven different pitchers got into double digits in terms of games started, with a mixed bag of results. Austin Voth and Dean Kremer were the only two of the group to post ERAs under 4.00 while with Baltimore. In both cases, advanced metrics are skeptical of the results, with low BABIPs and high strand rates helping them to minimize the damage. Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins were each between 4.00 and 5.00 in the ERA department, with none of them getting strikeouts at an above-average rate. Bruce Zimmermann’s ERA came in at 5.99. Some of these guys are still young and getting their feet wet, which means they will continue to get chances going forward. But none of them were so strong in 2022 that they should be guaranteed a rotation spot at this point. There should be plenty of room for free agent additions here, even with top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of entering the picture. John Means should be a factor at some point in 2023, but it will depend on how he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April of this year.

The types of free agents that they target will depend on exactly how significant the payroll increase will actually be. The top of the market will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. It would certainly be surprising to see the O’s shopping in that aisle, though there’s no real reason they couldn’t do it. If they aren’t willing to be quite that aggressive, they could look to Kodai Senga, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger and Nathan Eovaldi as solid middle-of-the-rotation options. If they decide to stick with one-year deals, they will likely be looking at guys like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies and others of that ilk. It could go in many different ways, but the O’s have virtually no payroll commitments and plenty of room in the rotation. The big question will be how bold they want to be.

Turning to the bullpen, this was a strength for the O’s this season. The club’s relievers posted a collective 3.49 ERA this year, ninth-best among MLB teams, even though they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker were some of the relievers to show promising results. However, reliever performance is notoriously volatile and the O’s don’t really have a veteran presence in the ’pen. Dillon Tate, who turns 29 in May and has just over three years of service time, is the old hand of the crew. It would be plenty sensible for the club to add a guy who’s been around for a bit, both for on-field performance and for mentoring capabilities. Players like Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle shouldn’t cost too much but would fit nicely, though there’s also nothing really stopping the O’s from splurging on Edwin Díaz or Kenley Jansen.

Ultimately, the O’s are a grand unknown until we see what Elias has in mind. Since taking over, he’s been extremely conservative with spending on the big league roster, avoiding all multi-year deals while focusing on acquiring and developing prospects. It seems like now is a good time to make a shift and start focusing on the major league level, but we don’t have a barometer for what that will look like. They still have many exciting prospects on the way, meaning they could continue with modest deals while waiting for the farm to continue producing, or they could use that prospect stockpile for a bold trade. But with a wide open future payroll and plenty of young talent, the O’s could be big players in free agency or the trade market or both, if they want to be.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Orioles-centric chat on 10-21-22. Click here to view a transcript of that discussion.

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Ted Leonsis’ Group Emerging As Front-Runner In Nationals’ Ownership Sale

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

Six months ago, the Lerner family announced they were exploring the possibility of a sale of the Nationals. As the offseason nears, some clarity has emerged on that process. David Aldridge, Britt Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic write that a group led by businessman Ted Leonsis is now the “clear front-runner” to eventually take over the Nationals. The Talk Nats blog first reported in late September the Leonsis group had broken through as the most likely party to buy the Nats.

Leonsis is already a key factor in the D.C. sports scene, as his Monumental Sports & Entertainment owns the NBA’s Wizards, the NHL’s Capitals and the WNBA’s Mystics. (The Lerners are a minority owner in that venture). Landing the Nationals would give Leonsis control over the D.C. franchises in three of the four major men’s sports leagues, The Athletic notes, a distinction currently only held by the Kroenke family that owns the Los Angeles Rams, Colorado Avalanche and Denver Nuggets. Leonsis isn’t mounting a solo ownership bid, however. The Washington Business Journal reported in August that private equity businessman David Rubenstein is also part of the group; it is unclear whether anyone else is involved.

Previous reports have also linked South Korean businessman Michael B. Kim and mortgage mogul Stanley Middleman to the sales process. There were reportedly upwards of five bidders in talks with the Lerner family at one point, but The Athletic reports that Leonsis’ group seized control roughly a month ago.

While it appears that Leonsis and company are now in the driver’s seat to push the deal across the finish line, the closing of the sale isn’t imminent. Aldridge, Ghiroli and Rosenthal hear the sale isn’t likely to be finalized before the December 4-7 Winter Meetings in San Diego. That appears to be the more optimistic end of the timetable, as The Athletic writes it’s possible the sale isn’t finished until after the calendar flips to 2023.

As The Athletic notes, Leonsis also controls his own regional sports network, NBC Sports Washington. Monumental Sports & Entertainment had previously purchased 33% of NBC Sports Washington, and it bought out NBCUniversal’s 67% share this past August. Not coincidentally, NBC Sports Washington holds the local broadcasting rights to Capitals, Wizards and Mystics games.

The Nationals’ local broadcasting contract currently runs through the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, which it shares with the Orioles. The Orioles own approximately 75% of the network, while the Nationals own the remaining share. The two franchises have been embroiled in rights fees litigation for the better part of a decade. The Washington franchise won a major victory in 2019 when an arbitrator ruled the Orioles owed the Nats $105MM. The Baltimore organization appealed that decision, and the matter has still yet to be decided by the New York State Court of Appeals.

While The Athletic notes it’s unclear how or if the sale of the Nationals would affect the MASN dispute, Talk Nats tweeted in August that Leonsis’ group would be interested in reaching a settlement with the Orioles to buy out of the MASN deal. If that did come to pass, the Nationals would presumably then be broadcast on the NBC Sports Washington platform. That’d obviously be a complicated process that requires negotiations with the Orioles, but it does seem to offer a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the saga.

The Lerner family first bought the Nationals in 2006, paying $450MM. The specific prices under consideration in their sale aren’t clear, but Daniel Kaplan of the Athletic wrote last month they were seeking $2.5 billion.

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