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James Paxton Diagnosed With Lat Strain

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Aug. 19: Cotillo tweets that the strain appears to be mild, though Paxton will undergo an MRI to confirm. He’s shut down from throwing for the time being.

Aug. 18: Red Sox lefty James Paxton began a rehab assignment today but left after facing just two batters. This was initially reported to be lat tightness by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, with manager Alex Cora later telling Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe that Paxton has a lat strain.

Cotillo adds that Paxton is seeing a doctor tomorrow to determine the severity of the issue, but there’s no question this is a significant setback for the hurler. Today was his first attempt to pitch in an organized game since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was still going to need some time to ramp up for a starter’s workload and will now have to push that further down the road. Even a mild lat strain usually requires a recovery period of 2-3 weeks, which means the southpaw will likely be sidelined until some time in September even in a best case scenario.

It’s another disappointing development for Paxton, one of many in recent years, following on the heels of an excellent four-year stretch of effectiveness. From 2016 to 2019, he threw at least 121 innings in each season, keeping his ERA under 4.00 in each campaign as well. He had a 22.9% strikeout rate in 2016 but got it up near 30% for the latter three years of that stretch.

Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just five starts in 2020 and then just a single outing in 2021 before landing on the injured list. Despite two essentially lost seasons, the Red Sox took a chance on him this past winter, hoping he could recover his previous form once he returned to health. The contract reflected his uncertain status, with Paxton receiving a $6MM salary here in 2022 while rehabbing. At the end of the year, Boston will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM club options for 2023 and 2024, effectively a two-year, $26MM deal. Should they decline, Paxton will then get to decide on a $4MM player option for next season.

If Paxton had come through this rehab looking like the solid mid-rotation arm he had been previously, there would have been good reason for the Red Sox to consider triggering their option, especially with Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha slated to reach free agency this fall. There’s also the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale, who has thrown less than 50 total innings over the past three seasons due to his own injury concerns. However, the longer Paxton remains out of action, the more the needle will move towards the club declining their end of the deal. As for Paxton’s side of things, that will also surely depend upon the severity of his injury and whether he thinks he can top $4MM in the open market this offseason.

In the short-term, the Red Sox surely would have loved for Paxton to come back and help them with the stretch drive here in 2022, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely with today’s setback. Boston is currently four games behind Toronto and Tampa Bay for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, with three other clubs in between them.

Rangers Notes: Young, Jung, Venable

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It’s been a tumultuous week in the world of the Texas Rangers, with manager Chris Woodward getting fired on Monday and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels following him out the door on Wednesday. With the departure of Daniels, general manager Chris Young took over as the chief baseball decision maker in Texas. However, Young apparently didn’t see this changed role coming, with the club’s managing partner Ray Davis telling Kennedi Landry of MLB.com that Young was “shocked” by the dismissal of Daniels.

It’s certainly been an unusual journey for Young in recent years. The 43-year-old former big league hurler pitched through the 2017 season and even signed a minor league deal with the Padres for 2018. He was eventually released and was hired by MLB in May of that year to be a vice president of on-field operations. Just over two years later, December of 2020, he was hired to be the Rangers’ general manager. In the tweet above, Landry relays that he and Daniels had been working pretty much side-by-side since then. Given his less than two years of experience working for the front office of a major league baseball team, it seems fair to assume that he learned a lot from Daniels, who was hired to be the Rangers’ general manager 17 years ago. Given that difference in their respective résumés, it’s hardly surprising that Young was taken off-guard by the news, suddenly finding himself atop the decision making pyramid after such a short time on the job.

Young spoke to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News about his hectic week. “I was trying to make sure that collectively, everybody, especially the longest-tenured employees, had a show of support in terms of just knowing the emotions they are going through,” Young said. “But I want to keep everybody focused on the task at hand. We have great things happening.”

Young was also asked about the future plans for the front office, perhaps hiring a new president of baseball operations or maybe a new general manager with Young getting promoted to the POBO role. “We’ll assess our needs as we go,” Young said on that topic. “It’s a natural part of the seasonal cycle. We will see what our needs are, what it looks like moving forward. We’ll probably lose some good employees to other organizations. That is just part of the hiring process. The first steps are making sure we get all our ducks lined up. But it will be part of the discussion.” With the offseason now just over two months away, Young will have to act quickly to align those ducks.

Other notes out of Texas…

  • A promotion of prospect Josh Jung doesn’t appear to be close, with interim manager Tony Beasley saying as much to Jeff Wilson of Rangerstoday.com. This past winter, the young third baseman seemed like a candidate to crack the club’s Opening Day roster or at least make his major league debut shortly after. However, he required shoulder surgery in February, which was expected to keep him out of action for six months and thereby kick his debut down the road. He began a rehab assignment at the end of July and has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since. In eight games in the Complex League, he hit .240/.345/.600, followed by seven Triple-A games with a line of .414/.485/1.034. That’s an incredible showing in that small sample, but the club considers this to be Jung’s Spring Training, which means they’re focused on getting his body re-acclimated to regular playing time. That news might be disappointing to fans of the club who are looking forward to seeing Jung tackle big league pitching before the offseason begins. However, it’s worth pointing out that these things can change quickly. Just a few days ago, the Mets insisted they weren’t promoting their own young third baseman, Brett Baty, before announcing the very next day that he was indeed getting called up. Jung isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in a few months, meaning the Rangers will need to add him soon either way.
  • With Woodward’s firing, the club will have to think about who they want to be in the manager’s chair next year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Red Sox bench coach Will Venable is one potential candidate. The 39-year-old played nine seasons in the majors, mostly with the Padres, before transitioning into other roles. In 2017, he joined the Cubs, first as a special assistant to president Theo Epstein, then spending some time as first base coach and third base coach. He became the Red Sox bench coach prior to the 2021 season and has been in that job since. This wouldn’t be the first time his name has been floated in managerial rumors, as he was connected to the Cubs, Giants and Astros prior to 2020, the Tigers and Red Sox prior to 2021 and the A’s prior to 2022. Given that repeated interest, it seems he has a strong reputation around the league and could get consideration for vacancies again this winter. In addition to the Rangers, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Angels have fired their managers and hired interim replacements this year.

Mets Claim Yolmer Sanchez, Designate Patrick Mazeika

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The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve claimed veteran second baseman Yolmer Sanchez off waivers from the Red Sox and opened a spot on the roster by designating catcher Patrick Mazeika for assignment.

The 30-year-old Sanchez is a former Gold Glove winner at second base who never got going with the bat in his brief time with the Red Sox. In a small sample of 37 plate appearances, he went just 4-for-37 with an 11.4% walk rate, 29.5% strikeout rate and no extra-base hits.

Sanchez’s peak years with the bat came in 2017-18 with the White Sox, when he posted a combined .253/.312/.390 batting line while playing second base on a near-everyday basis. Granted, even that career-best production was about nine percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but for a player with Sanchez’s speed and defensive skills, that was plenty to make him a solid regular. His line dipped to .252/.318/.321 in 2019, but Sanchez also won a Gold Glove that year, so the Sox likely didn’t mind the tepid output at the plate.

In the time since winning that Gold Glove, though, Sanchez has barely seen the Majors. He logged just 21 plate appearances with the ChiSox during the shortened 2020 season and spent the 2021 season with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate where he posted a grisly .216/.309/.352 line in 355 plate appearances. Things were going much better for Sanchez with Boston’s Triple-A club, for whom he’d turned in a .247/.377/.413 line in 305 trips to the plate.

The Mets’ infield is banged up at the moment, with Luis Guillorme out as long as six weeks and Eduardo Escobar on the injured list due to an oblique strain. New York recently called up top infield prospect Brett Baty to man the hot corner — Baty homered in his first MLB at-bat last night — and have Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso to round out the infield. Guillorme’s absence takes away the Mets’ primary backup to Lindor at shortstop, however, but Sanchez can give them a capable bench option to back up any of Baty, Lindor and McNeil while they work toward getting back to better health.

As for Mazeika, the 28-year-old has had some brief looks with the Mets over the past two seasons but has never provided anything with the bat. He’s a .190/.236/.279 hitter in 159 plate appearances at the MLB level. Mazeika does have a more palatable .272/.367/.414 output in parts of two Triple-A seasons, and the Mets have been pleased with his defensive skills. He’ll be placed on waivers within a week. Any team that claims Mazeika could option him freely in 2022, but he’ll be out of minor league options next season.

Red Sox Designate Yolmer Sanchez For Assignment

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5:35pm: The Red Sox formally announced all three moves. Sanchez has been designated for assignment, while both Hernandez and Refsnyder have been reinstated from the injured list.

4:30pm: The Red Sox have designated infielder Yolmer Sanchez for assignment, reports Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). The team has yet to formally announce the move, but it’ll come as part of series of transactions that also includes the activation of utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and Rob Refsnyder, per Abraham.

Sanchez, 30, has been with the Red Sox since being selected to the big league roster on July 22. A former Gold Glove winner and regular with the White Sox, he’s seen his offensive output crater in recent years, though never quite to the extent it has so far in Boston. It’s a tiny sample, just 14 games, but Sanchez is just 4-for-37 with seven walks (11.4%), 13 strikeouts (29.5%) and zero extra-base hits through 44 trips to the plate — resulting in a dismal .108/.214/.108 batting line on the year.

Sanchez’s peak years with the bat came in 2017-18 in Chicago, when he posted a combined .253/.312/.390 batting line while playing second base on a near-everyday basis. Granted, even that career-best production was about nine percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but for a player with Sanchez’s speed and defensive skills, that was plenty to make him a solid regular at second base. His line dipped to .252/.318/.321 in 2019, but Sanchez also won a Gold Glove that year, so the Sox likely didn’t mind the tepid output at the plate.

In the time since winning that Gold Glove, though, Sanchez has barely seen the Majors. He logged just 21 plate appearances with the ChiSox during the shortened 2020 season and spent the 2021 season with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate where he posted a grisly .216/.309/.352 line in 355 plate appearances. Things were going much better for Sanchez with Boston’s Triple-A club, for whom he’d turned in a .247/.377/.413 line in 305 trips to the plate.

Now that the trade deadline has passed, the only outcome for players who are designated for assignment is to be placed on outright waivers or release waivers. Sanchez has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to the minors if he goes unclaimed.

Red Sox Activate Michael Wacha From 15-Day Injured List

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2:54PM: The Sox officially reinstated Wacha from the IL.  Left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

9:05AM: The Red Sox will activate right-hander Michael Wacha from the 15-day injured list today, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe).  Wacha will get the start for tonight’s game against the Yankees.

Right shoulder inflammation sent Wacha to the IL on July 5, so between this absence and a previous 15-day stint in May due to left intercostal irritation, Wacha has missed a good chunk of his first season with the Red Sox.  When he has been able to pitch, the righty has been arguably Boston’s best hurler, with a 2.69 ERA over 70 1/3 innings.

This performance is tempered by a 4.56 SIERA, a .240 BABIP and a slate of unimpressive Statcast metrics, so some regression seems almost inevitable.  However, in terms of pure bottom-line numbers, 2022 represents a very nice bounce-back for Wacha after he posted a 5.11 ERA in 285 1/3 innings in 2019-21.  The Sox have already gotten a decent return on their one-year, $7MM investment in Wacha during the offseason, and if he can continue to defy the metrics, he could be a key arm for the Red Sox down the stretch.

The starting rotation has been a question mark for the Sox virtually all season, with injuries and/or inconsistency plaguing just about every pitcher on the roster.  Chris Sale’s season-ending wrist surgery means that Boston won’t ever truly have its first-choice starting five all going at the same time, but Wacha’s return at least represents one more piece of the puzzle.  Wacha joins Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, and Kutter Crawford in the rotation, with Josh Winckowski likely to return to bullpen work, and James Paxton tentatively set to make a September return after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2021.

Red Sox Select Jeurys Familia

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Just a few days after signing Jeurys Familia to a minor league contract, the Red Sox have selected the veteran right-hander to the big league roster.  In corresponding moves, right-hander Kaleb Ort was optioned to Triple-A, and Chris Sale (who recently underwent season-ending wrist surgery) was moved to the 60-day injured list.

Familia is looking for a new beginning after posting a 6.09 ERA over 34 innings with the Phillies this season.  Philadelphia signed the righty to a one-year, $6MM this past offseason, but ended up releasing Familia last week.  In signing Familia and promoting him to the MLB roster, the Red Sox now owe him just the prorated portion of the minimum salary, while the Phils are responsible for the remainder of that $6MM total.

It’s been a rough season for Familia, who has posted below-average walk and strikeout rates while allowing more hard contact than almost any pitcher in baseball.  Familia is still averaging 95.7mph on his fastball, but that has been the only one of his pitches that has still been effective, as per Statcast’s metrics.  Batters have been teeing off on Familia’s sinker, which has been his primary pitch for the majority of his career (and he still throws the sinker over 50 percent of the time).

Still, at least a couple of Familia’s metrics are more favorable, as his 3.91 SIERA and an eye-popping .408 BABIP indicate some level of bad luck, despite all of that hard contact.  There isn’t much risk for the Red Sox in seeing if Familia can still contribute at the big league level, or at least provide a fresh arm within what has been a pretty middling Boston relief corps.

Minor MLB Transactions: Jackson, Sharp

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Checking in a couple recent minor league deals:

  • The Giants signed utilityman Drew Jackson to a non-roster contract last week. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento, where he’s appeared in five games. A former Seattle draftee, Jackson has played in the Mariners, Dodgers, Orioles, Mets and A’s organizations before landing with San Francisco. He got into three big league games with Baltimore in 2019 and returned to the majors for a trio of contests with the A’s this April. Jackson was brought up as a COVID substitute but quickly landed on the virus list himself and was then returned to the minor leagues. He hit .243/.353/.297 through 173 plate appearances with Triple-A Las Vegas, drawing walks at a robust 13.3% clip but striking out at a massive 32.4% rate. Oakland released the 29-year-old late last month.
  • The Red Sox agreed to a minor league pact with right-hander Sterling Sharp on Tuesday, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. Sharp was released from a non-roster arrangement with the Nationals last week. Now 27, Sharp was regarded among the better pitching prospects in the Washington farm system during his time in the lower minors. The sinkerballer was a Rule 5 draftee of the Marlins in 2020. He broke camp and made four MLB appearances with Miami, allowing seven runs in 5 1/3 innings, before being designated for assignment and returned to Washington. Sharp has spent the past two years in the upper levels of the Nats’ system, including a 2022 campaign at Triple-A Rochester. He started 13 of his 18 appearances but was tagged for a 6.62 ERA with a below-average 19.3% strikeout rate over 66 2/3 innings for the Red Wings.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Red Sox Notes: Paxton, Wacha, Houck, Sale

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Red Sox lefty James Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, seems to finally be healthy enough to start ramping things up. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the southpaw recently faced lived hitters and is expected to throw in a simulated game this Friday. The next step after that will be for him to start a rehab assignment, which would be followed by a return to the big league club.

“He’s in such a good spot now that it’s not about the arm,” manager Alex Cora said about Paxton. “It’s about the pitch mix, the breaking ball, all that. When those guys start talking about that, you know they’re over the hump.”

Paxton’s form down the stretch will be very significant both for him and the club, regardless of where they are in the standings. Boston signed him to a unique contract over the offseason, knowing that he was rehabbing from TJS and unlikely to contribute over a full season. Paxton is making a $6MM salary this year and then the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM options for 2023-2024 at the end of the season. If the team declines to pick up what is effectively a two-year, $26MM deal, Paxton can decide to trigger a $4MM player option for 2023 or decline it and return to free agency. Those decisions will surely depend upon what Paxton shows in the coming weeks.

The Red Sox could use some contributions from Paxton, both in this season and in the future, given the tumult of their rotation. Just about every starter in Boston’s rotation has either landed on the IL or been optioned to the minors at some point, with Nick Pivetta being the only constant. Michael Wacha has only made 13 starts this year due to a pair of IL stints, one for an intercostal strain and the other for shoulder inflammation. However, Cotillo reports that he threw 4 1/3 innings in a rehab start last night and should return to the big league club for his next outing. That should give the club a boost, as they look to finish strong in the AL Wild Card race. They are currently five games behind the Rays for the last spot.

Looking farther into the future, each of Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are slated to reach free agency this offseason, which is part of the reason why those Paxton options might seem alluring, even if he only returns for a brief period of time. The 2023 Boston rotation might also take a hit from the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale. The lefty was once one of the most dominant arms in the game but has hardly pitched in recent years due to a cavalcade of injuries. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and limited him to nine starts last year. He began this year on the IL due to a stress fracture in rib cage, returning to throw one five-inning start before his second start was cut short after less than an inning when a comebacker broke his finger. While on the IL, he managed to get hurt again, falling off a bicycle near his home and breaking his wrist, eliminating any hopes of his return this year.

Due to all that, Sale will go into the offseason having thrown just 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons, which raises questions about how much the Red Sox can rely on him for the rotation next year. “We obviously need to think through what that means as far as planning out a full season with him not having carried very much of a workload the last few years,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “If we want to play 162-plus we have to build our team to have a lot of starting pitching depth,” he added. With Hill, Wacha and Eovaldi headed to the open market and Sale and Paxton unknown wild cards at this point, there’s plenty of uncertainty hanging over Boston’s future rotation.

Turning back to the present season, the Sox placed reliever Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with back inflammation yesterday, Cotillo relays, which will deliver a hit to the bullpen. Houck has a 3.15 ERA on the year, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. That’s included many high-leverage spots, as Houck as eight saves and one hold on the year. He’ll join Tyler Danish, Matt Strahm and Josh Taylor among Boston relievers currently on the injured list. The bullpen is so banged up that Cora told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, that Hill might see some action out of the ’pen, despite having just started yesterday’s game.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

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