Ex-Red Sox manager Alex Cora was just suspended for 2020 thanks to the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach during their 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and president Sam Kennedy made it sound earlier this week as if they wouldn’t bring Cora back at the end of his ban, but Kennedy may be open to it after all (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Kennedy told “Ordway, Merloni & Fauria” of WEEI that Cora’s “a great baseball manager.” As for whether the Red Sox would rehire him, Kennedy said: “We’ll talk about that down the road. We just removed Ron Roenicke’s interim tag and he’s going to lead our club going forward. I think a lot of Alex’s future depends on how he approaches this suspension period.” For at least this season, Roenicke – Cora’s former bench coach – will manage the team.
Red Sox Rumors
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Judge, Cobb
Here’s the latest chatter from the AL East …
- So, that whole Red Sox sign-stealing saga is over with now … right? Not entirely, as Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write (subscription link). The determinations of commissioner Rob Manfred create quite a few questions — not least of which involving his decision to focus the brunt of his punitive power on one Red Sox employee (replay operator J.T. Watkins). Manfred’s actions haven’t sated MLBTR readers, at least, according to the early results of our poll on the punishments. Perhaps the most interesting issue, from a broader perspective, involves the league’s responsibility for managing all this. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom puts it: “I also think structurally we ought to do everything we can to make sure that confusion can’t occur and that these aspects of our game are beyond reproach.” Another way to frame the matter: the rules and enforcement regime needs to be set up to ensure results rather than dealing with fallout on an ad hoc basis.
- It seemed the Yankees were going to spend the early part of the 2020 season dealing with another odd slate of injuries before the season went on pause. Now that star outfielder Aaron Judge has had plenty of time to figure out what was bothering him (rib stress fracture) and to recuperate … might that be avoided? MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Judge is working out at the Yankees’ spring complex and taking his time to avoid any unnecessary complications. Judge says he expects to be ready for “doing a little more here in about a week or two,” at which point he can hopefully begin building towards baseball readiness. There’s still nothing close to a clear starting point for the 2020 season, so there’s obviously no rush.
- Alex Cobb’s signing is one of several big-contract misfires that have hamstrung the Orioles over the years. But he had seemingly fully recovered from the hip problem that plagued him last year, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza writes. Cobb had a rough 2018 season and made only three starts last year, but there’s still time for the 32-year-old to provide at least some value. The best-case scenario probably would’ve been a bounce back during the first half of the 2020 season, potentially setting the stage for a mid-summer deal. Perhaps now the O’s will end up attempting to move Cobb — who’s owed $14MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021 — over the ensuing offseason, depending upon what (if anything) he’s able to show this year.
MLBTR Poll: Red Sox Punishment
After a long wait, we finally learned of the official outcome of the Red Sox sign-stealing investigation. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred docked the team its 2020 second-round pick. He also suspended the club’s replay coordinator, J.T. Watkins, after determining that Watkins had at times used a TV feed during games to figure out an opponents’ signs and then conveyed that information to “a limited number of Red Sox players,” who could then attempt to apply it if they reached second base. There was evidently no evidence of a broader effort by team leadership, which (per Manfred) had in fact “consistently communicated MLB’s sign-stealing rules to non-player staff and made commendable efforts toward instilling a culture of compliance in their organization.”
Manfred took a much harsher view of the conduct of the Astros, whose World Series-winning 2017 club was judged to have engaged in a broad-based, long-running, and rather expansive effort to ascertain signs and convey them in real time to batters. The Houston organization was docked four top draft choices and $5MM, while its manager and general manager were hit with year-long suspensions.
A slightly lesser (season-long) ban has now been applied to former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora, though Manfred made clear it was for his conduct while in Houston. Cora lost his job in Boston over the offseason after the Astros fired A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow. Former Astros player Carlos Beltran also departed his managerial gig with the Mets before it really even started.
Since the actions against Cora didn’t stem from his time with the Red Sox, it wasn’t really part of the punishment. The team will have to fill in for Watkins, though that action was obviously targeted primarily at him personally. As for the lost draft pick, Manfred made clear he levied the punishment because the Red Sox may have benefited, not because of any organizational failing.
When we polled the MLBTR readership on Manfred’s handling of the Astros case, most felt it was either on the mark or too light. How do you feel about his actions with regards to the Red Sox? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Alex Cora Issues Statement On Suspension; Red Sox Unlikely To Rehire Him
It took months to announce a decision, but Major League Baseball finally handed down its punishment Wednesday for Boston’s sign-stealing violations in 2018. Former manager Alex Cora, whom the Red Sox parted with in January, received a suspension for the entire 2020 campaign. However, Cora’s ban came as a result of his wrongdoing as the Astros’ bench coach in 2017 – not anything he did in Boston.
We don’t even know if a season will occur because of the coronavirus pandemic, so Cora may not miss much this year. The onetime World Series-winning skipper reacted to the league’s decision after it came down, though, and the entire statement is available on Twitter by way of his agency, MDR Sports Management.
“I am relieved that these MLB investigations are concluded and that Commissioner Rob Manfred has released his finding that I did not violate any MLB rules as a member of the Red Sox organization in 2018 or 2019,” said Cora. He added that he takes “full responsibility” for his part in the Astros’ 2017 violations and called them “unacceptable.”
Cora won’t be eligible to manage again for another season, but he was rather successful in that role in his two years with the Red Sox. The team went 192-132 during that span and, as mentioned, won a championship. They’ve since committed to Cora’s former bench coach, Ron Roenicke, as their manager for at least a year. But would the Red Sox consider pivoting back to Cora when his suspension expires? That doesn’t seem likely.
“All the reasons that we parted ways with him there are still the case,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Wednesday (via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe).
Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said they “wish him well,” but “nothing’s changed“ in regards to why the club let go of Cora.
Still just 44 years old, Cora may well resurface as a major league manager, but it doesn’t appear that will happen in Boston.
Red Sox To Remove “Interim” Tag From Ron Roenicke’s Title
The Red Sox will soon announce that they’re removing the “interim” tag from interim manager Ron Roenicke’s title, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. He’ll serve as the “permanent” manager for the 2020 season, assuming one is played.
It’s an expected move and one that’s largely a formality. At the time Roenicke was named Alex Cora’s replacement, multiple reports indicated that the organization would remove the “interim” qualifier if and when the league’s investigation cleared Roenicke of any wrongdoing in the 2018 sign-stealing allegations that had been brought for against the club. Today’s announcement from commissioner Rob Manfred, which punished only one current Red Sox employee, will now bring about that anticipated title modification.
[Related: MLB Announces Findings, Discipline Stemming From Red Sox Investigation]
Of course, Roenicke is still signed for only the 2020 season, and his future beyond that is unclear. He’d previously served as Cora’s bench coach, so if the organization opts to bring in a new skipper, it’s possible Roenicke could return to that role or move on altogether. Notably, there appears to be nothing (outside of what would figure to be enormously negative public relations pushback) standing in the way of the Red Sox simply re-hiring Cora for the 2021 season. His league-imposed ban only runs through the 2020 playoffs and Manfred made sure to emphasize that the punishment stemmed only from his wrongdoings while serving as the Astros’ bench coach in 2017 — not for anything he did with Boston.
MLB Announces Findings Of Investigation Into 2018 Sign-Stealing Allegations Against Red Sox
Major League Baseball has concluded its investigation into 2018 sign-stealing allegations against the Red Sox and imposed the following disciplinary measures:
- The Red Sox are stripped of their second-round pick in the 2020 amateur draft
- Red Sox advance scout/replay coordinator J.T. Watkins has been suspended without pay for the 2020 season and is prohibited from holding his previous role for the 2021 season
- Former manager Alex Cora, fired by the Red Sox earlier this year, has been banned through the 2020 postseason — although only for his role in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal.
Those penalties pale in comparison to what many felt was a light Astros punishment in response to their 2017 trash can scheme; Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were both suspended one year (and subsequently fired by the team), while the organization was fined the maximum permissible $5MM and stripped of first- and second-round picks in each of the next two drafts.
Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy issued the following statement via press release:
As an organization, we strive for 100% compliance with the rules. MLB’s investigation concluded that in isolated instances during the 2018 regular season, sign sequences were decoded through the use of live game video rather than through permissible means. MLB acknowledged the front office’s extensive efforts to communicate and enforce the rules and concluded that Alex Cora, the coaching staff, and most of the players did not engage in, nor were they aware of, any violations. Regardless, these rule violations are unacceptable. We apologize to our fans and Major League Baseball, and accept the Commissioner’s ruling.
The league announced the findings of what it terms an “exhaustive investigation into allegations of improper use of the video replay room.” Within, commissioner Rob Manfred offered the following breakdown of his findings:
- “I find that J.T. Watkins, the Red Sox video replay system operator, on at least some occasions during the 2018 regular season, utilized the game feeds in the replay room, in violation of MLB regulations, to revise sign sequence information that he had permissibly provided to players prior to the game.
- I find that unlike the Houston Astros’ 2017 conduct, in which players communicated to the batter from the dugout area in real time the precise type of pitch about to be thrown, Watkins’s conduct, by its very nature, was far more limited in scope and impact. The information was only relevant when the Red Sox had a runner on second base (which was 19.7% of plate appearances league-wide in 2018), and Watkins communicated sign sequences in a manner that indicated that he had decoded them from the in-game feed in only a small percentage of those occurrences.
- I do not find that then-Manager Alex Cora, the Red Sox coaching staff, the Red Sox front office, or most of the players on the 2018 Red Sox knew or should have known that Watkins was utilizing in-game video to update the information that he had learned from his pregame analysis. Communication of these violations was episodic and isolated to Watkins and a limited number of Red Sox players only.
- I find that the Red Sox front office consistently communicated MLB’s sign-stealing rules to non-player staff and made commendable efforts toward instilling a culture of compliance in their organization.”
Manfred goes on to emphasize that while he has previously granted players immunity in exchange for truthful testimony in both the Astros and Red Sox investigations, the findings of his Red Sox inquiry would not have led him to consider disciplining players anyhow (which surely would not have been the case with regard to the Astros). The loss of the draft pick, per the commissioner, stems from the fact that he still felt the organization should be held accountable for benefiting from data that was obtained improperly.
Manfred’s report on the investigation details that every player who spent time with the 2018 Red Sox was interviewed in some capacity and provided what were deemed truthful testimonies. A total of 65 witnesses were interviewed during the course of the investigation, and MLB’s department of investigations (DOI) reviewed “tens of thousands of emails, text messages, video clips and photographs,” per the report.
Watkins, the employee on whom the entirety of the wrongdoing is blamed by commissioner Manfred, was an advance scout tasked with using video to decode signs before and after Red Sox games — a permissible act that falls within MLB’s guidelines on the implementation of technology within the game. However, he was also the team’s replay reviewer, responsible during games for coordinating with Cora on whether to challenge a call or not. The report notes that other clubs had that same setup, but an investigation into the Red Sox found that Watkins would, at times, alter pre-game sign sequencing information in the middle of an active game. While most players who were interviewed said they had no knowledge of any wrongdoing by Watkins, others acknowledged that they had suspicions after the data coming from Watkins changed over the course of a game.
Watkins, per Manfred, has “vehemently denied” any such practice, although clearly based on the punishment levied by the league, Manfred and the DOI felt sufficient evidence to the contrary was present. Moreover, the commissioner’s report highlights that Watkins was a “key participant” in the 2017 Apple Watch incident that led to a fine for the Red Sox and helped bring questions about improper use of technology to light on a national basis.
With regard to any potential postseason wrongdoing, Manfred adds that the commissioner’s office positioned “full-time, in-person monitors in replay rooms to prevent the improper use of video equipment.” Such measures were not in place throughout the regular season.
It’s not yet clear precisely why the investigation was so prolonged in the first place and perhaps never will be. Major League Baseball was initially planning to release its findings before the end of February. When the investigation lingered into March, the COVID-19 pandemic obviously and understandably took precedence, thus bringing about a delay of nearly two months that only seems to have heightened the general public reaction that the Boston organization escaped mostly unscathed. But the initial delay into March was never fully explained.
The loss of that second-round pick will give the Sox one less selection in an already shortened draft and dock $1,403,200 from Boston’s pool (the would-be value of that vacated second-rounder). Previously, they’d been slated to have a $6.514MM pool in the event of a five-round draft and a $7.482MM pool for a 10-round format. Put another way, they’ll lose anywhere from 18.8 percent to 21.6 percent of their 2020 draft budget due to the league’s ruling.
Unexplained within Manfred’s report is just why the punishment for Cora, who was called out as an architect of the trash-can-banging setup with the 2017 Astros, is lighter than those which were brought upon Luhnow and Hinch. Cora’s rank within the organization was lower, but his role in the team’s transgressions appears to have been much more integral. Yet Luhnow and Hinch were banned for one year, beginning Jan. 13, 2020 and running through Jan. 13 of 2021, while Cora is only barred through the end of postseason play in 2020. Technically, he could have a job in baseball again before the bans on Hinch and Luhnow have been lifted — despite a pivotal role in the Astros’ scandal and, if not a direct role in the Red Sox’ 2018 infractions, then some negligence or a lack of oversight that one would think should be deemed alarming.
Ultimately, the light punishment for the Sox boils down to the fact that Manfred and his charges are convinced that the wrongdoing was more limited in scope than that of the Astros and largely fell on the shoulders of one employee. Fans and onlookers will, of course, draw their own conclusions about the legitimacy of that finding the the pervasiveness (or lack thereof) of similar setups throughout the league. At this point, however, that’s all largely rendered moot; the commissioner’s punishment has been set, and the matter has been put to bed.
The Red Sox announced not long after Kennedy’s statement that they’ll host a conference call with reporters tonight at 7pm ET, at which point they’ll surely field additional questions on the investigation and its ramifications.
Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic first reported the findings of commissioner Manfred’s investigation, minutes prior to the official announcement.
Is There Any Way The Dodgers Can Win The Mookie Betts Trade?
In today’s video, Jeff Todd and I discuss how the Mookie Betts trade is affected by the coronavirus, and whether there might be a silver lining for the Dodgers.
MLBTR Poll: Third Base Building Blocks
Major League Baseball boasts a high number of quality third basemen, evidenced in part by the fact that nine regulars at the position totaled at least 4.5 fWAR last season. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers finished in the top five in that category, and as players who are controllable for the foreseeable future and only in their 20s, they represent a pair of the top building blocks in the game. The question, though, is which player you’d rather have going forward.
The easy answer (or so it seems) is Chapman, whose career production has trounced Devers’ since the two debuted in 2017. Not only is he a defensive wizard, but Chapman can flat-out hit. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s all-around excellence had led to 15.5 fWAR thus far, including back-to-back seasons of 6.0 fWAR or better. He’s now coming off a career-best campaign as a power hitter in 2019, when he batted .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 670 plate appearances.
Chapman still has four years of team control left, including one more pre-arb season (that’s if there is MLB in 2020). The same goes for Devers, so the two are even in that regard. As mentioned, Chapman’s output has crushed Devers’ in the aggregate. However, Devers closed the gap a season ago with a 5.9-fWAR showing, and he’s also several years younger than Chapman. Devers, who won’t even turn 24 until October, was roughly a league-average offensive player from 2017-18, but the proverbial light bulb went on last season during a .311/.361/.555 effort (132 wRC+) in which he slugged 32 homers over 702 PA.
Devers has nothing on Chapman at third – the former put up minus-10 DRS and plus-2.7 UZR last year; the latter recorded an otherworldly plus-34 DRS and plus-14.8 UZR – but they’re close in terms of offensive prowess. And Devers is so much younger than Chapman that it’s hard not to take that into consideration when comparing the two. Going by fWAR, Chapman was the third-most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2019. Devers was fourth. You can’t lose with either player, but all things considered, whom would you rather have heading into the future?
(Poll link for app users)
What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?
If the 2020 MLB season is canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, players will receive service time equal to the amount they accrued in 2019. That’s a win for any player who received a full year in ’19, as they’d remain on track for free agency as expected. That includes Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and everyone else expected to be in the 2020-21 free agent class.
A canceled season would sting for someone like Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux, who picked up 28 days of Major League service as a rookie last year but was likely to get a full season in 2020. Lux’s free agency would have arrived after the 2025 season, but if this season is canceled, he’ll project to become a free agent after ’26. And then there are others who didn’t get any MLB service in ’19 but were expected to in ’20, such as Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Nate Pearson.
It’s worth considering how the balance would shift in recent major trades if there’s no 2020 season. The Betts trade, where the Dodgers’ main acquisition was a star rental player, dramatically shifts toward the Red Sox.
Pre-coronavirus expectations of the Mookie Betts trade:
- Dodgers get one year of Mookie Betts, three years of David Price, $48MM from the Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer after the season
- Red Sox get five years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong
Canceled season results of the Mookie Betts trade:
- Dodgers get zero years of Mookie Betts, two years of David Price, $32MM from Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer
- Red Sox get four years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong
The Red Sox had been scheduled to pay $48MM to the Dodgers in 18 equal installments, starting tomorrow. However, MLBTR has confirmed that all cash considerations will be adjusted proportionally to the salary reductions that end up occurring in 2020. So if the Dodgers don’t wind up paying Price in 2020, the Red Sox won’t send money to them. My $32MM figure assumes the 2021 season is played in full.
Price remains a useful pitcher, so it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up nothing of value. And while they’d still pay the Dodgers $32MM in 2021-22, that’s only half what they’d have originally owed Price for his age 35-36 seasons. The Sox might have accepted that arrangement with nothing in return from the Dodgers, but they still get to keep Verdugo, Downs, and Wong. Though a canceled season would mean the Red Sox would lose the chance to reset under the luxury tax in 2020, that will be less challenging in ’21 given the Price trade and the fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) will be coming off the books.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, would find themselves without Betts, Verdugo, or Joc Pederson for the 2021 season (unless they re-sign Pederson as a free agent). They’d lose a crucial year of control of Cody Bellinger, who would likely settle back in as the regular right fielder. That would leave A.J. Pollock as the regular center fielder. The Dodgers would have an even bigger question mark in left, where Pederson, Verdugo, and Pollock combined to take more than half of the innings in 2019. Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty would be the main in-house candidates, so the Dodgers would likely have to make an outfield acquisition.
Betts could still wind up playing meaningful games for the Dodgers if the 2020 season is canceled, as they’d be a top contender for him in what could be a strange free agency period. It would hardly be a shock to see the entire free agent market suffer due to teams’ lost revenue in 2020, forcing Betts to settle for less than he expected prior to the pandemic.
Could the Dodgers receive some sort of recourse on the Betts trade if the season is canceled? I polled MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne, and none of them find that likely. As Steve put it, “If there’s an alteration to the Betts deal, that just seems like opening Pandora’s box. Every team in the league would be clamoring for compensation because almost everyone would be getting screwed to some extent.” Whether it’s the Reds acquiring Trevor Bauer last summer with an eye toward 2020, the Diamondbacks losing one of their two years of Starling Marte, or the Rangers losing a year of Corey Kluber, many teams are dealing with a similar situation.
For more on this topic, check out my new video discussion with Jeff Todd:
Red Sox Provide Updates On Injured Players
Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke and pitching coach Dave Bush held a conference call with reporters Tuesday, providing updates on a trio of injured Sox players (all Twitter links via NESN’s Guerin Austin and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).
Perhaps most notably, Roenicke explained that right fielder Alex Verdugo has been swinging a bat, throwing and running as he rehabs a stress fracture in his lower back. Moving his workouts away from the Red Sox’ spring facility following its shutdown has made it more difficult for the club to closely monitor the 23-year-old’s progress, and Verdugo hasn’t yet been able to undergo an MRI to ascertain that his injury has completely healed. However, the Sox remain hopeful that if play is able to resume this year, Verdugo would be ready to participate fully. The centerpiece in Boston’s return for Mookie Betts and David Price, Verdugo slashed .294/.342/.475 with a dozen homers, 22 doubles and a pair of triples in 377 plate appearances with the Dodgers last year.
[Related: What happens to the Mookie Betts trade if the season is canceled?]
As for right-hander Collin McHugh, he’s moving more slowly through the early stages of a strengthening program. McHugh underwent a nonsurgical elbow procedure over the winter after finishing the 2019 season on the injured list and has been brought along slowly. The Sox aren’t rushing him through anything with the season in limbo at the moment, and Roenicke indicated that the 32-year-old righty, who signed a one-year deal with Boston in early March, still has quite a ways to go in his rehab. Boston’s final couple of rotation spots remain fairly unsettled — Ryan Weber is the likely fourth starter, and there’s no set fifth starter — although given where McHugh is in his rehab, perhaps he’s better viewed as a potential bullpen piece.
Regarding former franchise cornerstone Dustin Pedroia, it doesn’t seem that the shutdown has provided any new optimism that he could make a return. While he’s still under contract through the 2021 season, Pedroia’s 2020 status has been up in the air since he suffered a “significant” setback in his recovery from repeated left knee troubles that have necessitated a trio of surgeries. He’s played in just nine games over the past two seasons thanks to his increasingly problematic knee, and Roenicke was rather blunt in casting doubt on a potential return for the 36-year-old: “He’s still not a point where he’s thinking about trying to be ready to come back and join us.”
