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Is Big Papi A Hall Of Famer?

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Baseball fans love to debate which players should make it to the Hall of Fame, and with the designated hitter position so prominent in the news at the moment, it got me to thinking about David Ortiz’s Cooperstown case. The Boston legend will be eligible to make it there in 2022, and there’s a strong argument he should wind up with a plaque in the museum.

Ortiz is one of the most feared hitters in recent memory, but his career began inauspiciously in Minnesota. As a Twin from 1997-2002, Ortiz amassed 1,693 plate appearances and batted .266/.348/.461 (106 wRC+) with 58 home runs. The Twins then cut ties with Ortiz, but at the behest of Pedro Martinez, the Red Sox signed Big Papi to a non-guaranteed contract in January 2003. Now, in terms of franchise-altering steals, that could rank in Boston sports lore with the Patriots getting Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft.

Ortiz was a smash success with the Red Sox from the jump, as he slashed .288/.369/.592 (145 wRC+) and put up 31 homers in 509 trips to the plate during his first season with the team. The Red Sox lost to the hated Yankees in the ALCS that year, but they and Ortiz frequently ruled the sport after that. During the rest of Ortiz’a career from 2004-16, all of which was spent in Boston, the Red Sox won three World Series. He was a 10-time All-Star and a .290/.386/.570 hitter (146 wRC+) who piled up 483 homers with the team during that span. Along with his regular-season accomplishments, Ortiz was a monster in the playoffs. When the chips were down in the fall, Ortiz was known to thrive. He was a World Series MVP (2013) and an ALCS MVP (2004 – the year the Red Sox overcame a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees) who appeared in 85 postseason games between his two clubs and hit .289/.404/.543 with 17 HRs.

As for the regular season, Ortiz ranks 65th all-time in wRC+ (140) and 182nd among position players in fWAR (51.0). He ended his career a .286/.380/.552 hitter who racked up the 17th-most homers ever, 541, and remained an elite hitter even in his last season. Ortiz’s amazing run didn’t come without issues, though. Back in 2009, the New York Times reported Ortiz tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in his breakout 2003 campaign. Ortiz vehemently denied those claims, as you’d expect, and commissioner Rob Manfred came to the slugger’s defense in 2016. Manfred said (via the Boston Globe) it was “entirely possible” Ortiz didn’t take PEDs, adding that “he’s never been a positive at any point under our (testing) program” that began in 2004.

Even if you’re OK with brushing off the PED questions when it comes to Ortiz’s Hall of Fame candidacy, are you willing to be as forgiving when it comes to a lack of defensive impact? For the most part, Ortiz was a full-time DH during his career, which some purists frown upon. For example, former Mariners superstar Edgar Martinez is one of the greatest DHs ever, but it took him until his final year on the ballot (2019) to get to Cooperstown. He’d have been a first-ballot pick for me if I had a vote, though, and the same applies to Ortiz. However, as Hall of Fame expert and FanGraphs writer Jay Jaffe explained in a piece for SI.com in 2016, “a spot in Cooperstown is no certainty” for Ortiz. Do you think it should be?

(Poll link for app users)

Which 15 Players Should The Red Sox Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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The last MLB expansion draft took place on November 18th, 1997.  Each of the 28 existing teams was able to initially protect 15 players, with the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks mostly alternating picks to fill their new rosters.

The first round consisted of one player being taken from each of the 28 teams, giving the Devil Rays and D’Backs 14 players each.  At that point, each of the 28 teams was able to protect an additional three players.  After the completion of the second round, each team added another three players to their protected list.  In the third round, the Rays and D’Backs would each take an additional seven players, with each new club ending up with 35 in total.

Detailed rules can be found here, but basically each team’s best prospects were not eligible for the draft.  Still, about a quarter of the players chosen were minor leaguers.  Also, players with no-trade clauses or ten-and-five rights had to be put on protected lists unless they waived those rights.  And there would be no reason to protect players eligible for free agency.

We thought it would be fun to determine each team’s current 15-player protected list, as if a new two-team expansion draft is scheduled for November.  For simplicity’s sake, only players with MLB experience will be eligible for our mock expansion draft.

So far, we’ve done the Yankees.

Next up, we’ll shape a 15-player protected list for the Red Sox.

Free agents Mitch Moreland, Martin Perez, Collin McHugh, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Pillar, and Brandon Workman will be excluded.  The Red Sox have club options on Moreland and Perez, but I don’t think they would burn protected spots on them regardless.

Dustin Pedroia, Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts automatically take up four of the 15 spots due to their no-trade rights.  That leaves 11 more players to protect.  I’ve decided to lock in six more spots for the following players:

Rafael Devers
Eduardo Rodriguez
Christian Vazquez
Andrew Benintendi
Alex Verdugo
Michael Chavis

That leaves five spots for these 19 players:

Matt Barnes
Ryan Brasier
Colten Brewer
Austin Brice
Nathan Eovaldi
Matt Hall
Heath Hembree
Darwinzon Hernandez
Tzu-Wei Lin
Chris Mazza
Josh Osich
Jose Peraza
Kevin Plawecki
Mike Shawaryn
Jeffrey Springs
Josh Taylor
Phillips Valdez
Marcus Walden
Ryan Weber

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, please select exactly five players that you think the Red Sox should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Red Sox’ Future Payroll Features Highly Paid Stars

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2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. First up is the Red Sox:

Red Sox Total Future Cash Obligation: $355.85MM

*includes Chris Sale contract deferrals

*includes remaining obligations to David Price (traded to Dodgers)

*J.D. Martinez can opt out of contract after 2020

(click to expand/view detail list)

Examining The Red Sox’ Potential Trade Chips

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As we noted earlier today, the potential 2020 season will bring a host of new rules governing player transactions. We haven’t heard anything yet regarding how that’ll take place. But supposing there’s an opportunity at some point to strike trades, it’s quite likely that non-contending teams will be as anxious as ever to make deals.

But wait … are the Red Sox a contending team? Obviously they aren’t going all out, having just traded one of the game’s very best players in Mookie Betts along with high-priced veteran David Price. The team may maintain that wasn’t driven exclusively by luxury tax considerations, but there’s no way to sell it as enhancing the team’s 2020 outlook. And the club did manage to dip just under the luxury line — making it all the more important that the season end up being played, so that the anticipated competitive balance tax rate reset isn’t wiped out.

At the time, we might’ve wondered whether a first half boom could’ve led the Red Sox to turn into a mid-season 2020 buyer. It would’ve been hard to sell away from a winning club, at least. But then came the whole global pandemic thing, which halted any thoughts of a typical season and trade deadline. And in the midst of that the club lost its most talented pitcher when Chris Sale went under the knife for Tommy John surgery.

The Boston organization still projects as an above-average team. And the odds of a surprise would increase in a short-season format with an expanded postseason. But you have to recognize that the American League is extremely top-heavy. On paper, the Sox are no match at all for the best clubs.

Meanwhile, new Red Sox baseball ops leader Chaim Bloom has already pulled the band aid off when it comes to trading veterans. He’s looking to 2021 and beyond and the fan base knows it. None of them are deciding whether to show up for games this season anyway. Under the circumstances, the Boston organization should be pretty motivated to trade short-term veterans for whatever long-term value it can get. With every team facing renewed and unexpected future financial concerns, there could be some wild opportunities out there.

If and when Bloom returns to the trading floor, he won’t have a Betts to work with. It’s quite unlikely he’ll seriously entertain talks for long-term core player such as Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. It’s not likely the team will be keen to discuss Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vazquez given that each has multiple seasons of affordable control remaining. Even younger players like Alex Verdugo and Michael Chavis surely aren’t going anywhere.

But Bloom sure has a lot of other guys that would be worth talking about …

  • Brandon Workman, RP: In retrospect, it’s surprising there wasn’t more talk of Workman in the offseason. He ran up over seventy frames of sub-2 ERA ball last year with big strikeout and groundball numbers. And he was approximately the only pitcher in baseball that seemed immune to the long ball, though walks remain a concern. With only a $3.5MM salary, Workman is a really nice target for the many teams that will be looking to compete as hoped without adding financial obligations.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: The salary considerations go in the opposite direction here, as Bradley’s $11MM walk-year payout isn’t very friendly to the pocketbooks. He’s not likely to be a sought-after player unless he really makes a rebound at the plate. But he has shown that ability before and is a quality up-the-middle defender.
  • Kevin Pillar, OF & Mitch Moreland, 1B: These veterans are both going to have to show what they’ve got on the field before any other teams take a look. But each could be a mid-season rental target.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: Perhaps the most valuable potential Red Sox trade target that could realistically be shopped, the quality southpaw only just reached his 27th birthday after a productive and healthy 2019 season. He’s due a reasonable $8.3MM (on a full season basis) with one more arb year to go, so the Red Sox will probably intend to hang onto him for 2021 … though their plans could probably be changed with the right offer.
  • Matt Barnes, RP: He keeps producing monster strikeout numbers with good but not great results, due in part to some free pass proclivities. There’d be a ton of interest if the Red Sox make him available, but as with Rodriguez, there’s little reason for the team to sell short. Barnes is earning a full-season $3.1MM salary in 2020 with another pass through arbitration to come thereafter.
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: Might there be added interest with a temporary National League DH? That’d be a risky strategy since the designated hitter could disappear in 2021, particularly given Martinez’s significant post-2020 obligations ($19.375MM apiece in 2021 and 2022). The slugger’s now less likely than ever to opt out of the remainder of his deal.
  • Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez & Collin McHugh, SPs: None of these hurlers would be moved at the moment, but perhaps that could change if mid-season trades are possible. The former is owed a lot of coin, but could conceivably be swapped in the right circumstances — if he returns to form. The latter two are buy-low free agent signees who’d be possible deadline flips in a normal year. Perez does come with a 2021 option.

J.D. Martinez On Boston's Sign-Stealing Punishment

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  • Major League Baseball handed down its decision on Boston’s sign-stealing scandal from its World Series-winning season in 2018 a couple weeks ago, stripping the Red Sox of their second-round pick this year and suspending scout/replay coordinator J.T. Watkins for the upcoming campaign. Count designated hitter J.D. Martinez among those who are not pleased with Watkins’ short-term ban. The superstar slugger told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, “They just ruined this guy’s career with no evidence.” In regards to the overall punishment, Martinez said to Abraham: “If they went to court with that, it would get thrown out. There was nothing there. The judge would laugh.” 

Collin McHugh On Rehab Progress, Red Sox Role

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In an appearance on the podcast of Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (audio link), veteran hurler Collin McHugh discussed his opportunity with the Red Sox and the potential return of baseball. It’s an interesting listen from a thoughtful ballplayer.

McHugh joined the Boston organization on an incentive-laden, one-year MLB deal in early March. That means he spent only a brief amount of time in camp before the spring activities were halted.

Still, McHugh says he was glad to get rolling with his new organization at the time. A December elbow procedure “cut a lot of options” that he had been exploring. Once he began to build back up, “a lot more interest started to snowball really quickly” and McHugh was able to join the Boston organization.

Now, there are signs or progress even as McHugh works out remotely. He says he’s “about a month into my throwing program” — which certainly bodes well for his availability once the season gets underway. McHugh is engaged in daily contact with the team.

Once the 2020 campaign gets started, McHugh says, he anticipates functioning in a flexible capacity for the team — perhaps moving between the rotation and the bullpen or working in a role that he described as a “hybrid-type thing.” That’ll surely depend upon the precise needs of the roster and McHugh’s progress by the time play resumes.

As ever, it’s also interesting to hear the different perspectives of players on when and how MLB can return to action. Most of the interview involves McHugh’s well-considered thoughts regarding the timing and nature of a return of the sport.

Jon Lester Discusses His Future

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As he waits with the rest of us for the return of baseball, Cubs southpaw Jon Lester chatted with Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about his current activities and future plans. It’s well worth a full read, but we’ll cover a few items of particular hot stove relevance.

Lester certainly doesn’t sound like a player who’s preparing to wrap up his career at the end of his contract. He spoke not only of preparing for the upcoming season but of his future on the mound.

Lester’s free agent deal includes a 2021 vesting/mutual option that would be guaranteed at $25MM if he throws 200 frames in 2020. (With a hefty $10MM buyout, the actual cost difference is $15MM.) The innings target will be prorated to account for a shortened season. Regardless, it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs letting him reach it.

“We’ll figure that out one way or the other,” says Lester. “I will either be here or be a free agent. … I’m open-minded to anything.”

Anything? Anything at all? It may not mean much, but Lester went on to drop an eyebrow-raising line that’s sure to pique the interest of Red Sox fans: “Absolutely it would be cool to go back and finish my career where it all started.”

As Lester noted, there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty to be dealt with before considering where he’ll throw in 2021. “Hopefully, I’m still a good enough caliber pitcher that the want of my services will still be out there for people,” he says. Lester went on to note: “I’m not getting any younger and coming off a year like I had last year, this [season delay] isn’t going to help me.”

It’s hard to imagine there won’t be a market for Lester’s services, even if he’s not the same guy he once was. He allowed more than four earned runs per nine for the second time in three seasons last year. ERA estimators didn’t expect better based upon his peripherals (4.26 FIP; 4.35 xFIP; 4.49 SIERA). Then again, Lester also made 31 starts again … as he has for a remarkable dozen-straight seasons. (Actually, he typically takes the ball 32 or 33 times.)

Lester may not be capable of producing to his own lofty standards, but he was still a quality rotation piece in 2019. He’s also not wrong that, at 36 years of age, his desirability on the open market will depend in large part upon what he’s able to show in 2020 — if indeed there is a season. Lester tells Bradford that he’s staying active but also trying not to “waste bullets down here in the backyard or at some high school,” instead saving them while waiting for “a date to ramp it up.” Here’s hoping he’ll have a chance to do so soon.

Alex Verdugo At Full Health

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Newly acquired Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo seems to be healing up nicely during the pandemic pause, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. He had been sidelined with a stress fracture in his lower back when Spring Training was halted.

When last we heard from Verdugo, a key piece of the offseason blockbuster with the Dodgers, he had resumed baseball activities. But his outlook remained largely unclear, particularly given the vagaries of lower-back issues.

Now, Verdugo says, he’s at full health. Soon to turn 24, the left-handed-hitting outfielder is optimistic that he’ll be ready to roll whenever the second spring for the 2020 season begins.

“I’m at such a good position mentally and physically that I’m not worried about (my performance),” he told reporters. “I’m just ready to go play.”

While he’s anxious to get back underway, Verdugo also acknowledged that getting back to action involves rather complicated considerations and says he doesn’t want to do so prematurely. Mastrodonato covers his opinions on the resumption of play in full.

[RELATED: What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?]

And what about the possibility of a lost season … such that the Dodgers would lose Mookie Betts to free agency before he suits up for them? Per Verdugo: “We can’t expect these things and for the Dodgers that’s a tough deal. But, hey, everything happens for a reason.”

Quick Hits: Bloom, Draft, Krause, White Sox, Rangers

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Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom described some of the challenges that will come out of the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s MLB Draft in a discussion with the Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Bloom’s organization is particularly aware of the value of an additional year of scouting, which allowed the team to select Andrew Benintendi in the first round in 2015—something that probably wouldn’t happen if teams’ exposure was limited to his nondescript freshman season the year before. But that’s precisely the scenario teams find themselves in now: they won’t have the same feel for which draft-eligible players would have taken an additional leap this season and might have to base those judgments on just a few weeks of play. In addition, the shortened format of the draft (no more than 10 rounds) could influence teams’ strategy, especially in the later rounds, where clubs might look to take risks on players who will command more than $20K (the maximum amount for which teams can sign undrafted players). All this means that more high school players might opt to forego pro ball in favor of a collegiate scholarship.

  • Former Chicago Bulls front office executive Jerry Krause has received plenty of scrutiny recently, thanks to ESPN’s Michael Jordan docuseries, “The Last Dance.” But Krause’s tenure as the Bulls’ GM was bookended by a career as a baseball scout, where he worked most prominently with the White Sox. The Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales reflects on Krause’s astute eye and resolution as a scout; he was instrumental in swaying White Sox higher-ups to make a play for shortstop Ozzie Guillen (then a Padres minor-leaguer), who would of course go on to play 13 years and rack up 19.5 WAR with the South Siders—not to mention his role in managing the 2005 World Series team.
  • Beginning May 15, the Rangers will institute pay cuts for some of their full-time employees, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Per Grant, employees above a certain salary threshold will have their pay reduced by roughly 10-20%, which will affect approximately half of the team’s full-time staffers. That said, there won’t be any layoffs or furloughs at this time. A number of high-rankings Rangers execs, including GM Jon Daniels, had already begun taking pay cuts in April, but this round will expand the scope of those measures. They’re one of just a few teams that won’t be paying teams in full through May, with a handful of teams implementing similar pay cuts, while the Rays have furloughed some of their employees.

 

10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

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Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

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