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Ryan Weber Likely To Be In Red Sox’ Rotation

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Red Sox right-hander Ryan Weber entered camp hoping to win a battle for the fifth and final spot in the rotation, but manager Ron Roenicke has suggested that the 29-year-old now looks like the team’s fourth starter, per the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato.

Weber inked a minor league deal with the Red Sox in December 2018 and found himself in the big leagues as early as May, when now-former Sox lefty David Price hit the injured list. He spent the rest of the season bouncing between Pawtucket and Boston, ultimately appearing in 18 games and pitching to a 5.08 ERA in 40 2/3 innings. That’s not a particularly appealing number, of course, but Weber’s 4.20 FIP was much more palatable, and there’s reason to think he could be more effective yet.

Among the 436 pitchers who had 100 balls put into play against them in 2019, Weber posted the 17th-lowest hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Weber exhibited good control both in Triple-A and the Majors, and over the course of his pro career, his sinker has generated above-average ground-ball rates each year. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham wrote earlier in the month that the Sox were intrigued by the small handful of cutters that Weber threw last season and believe the pitch could develop into a quality offering with more use. To his credit, Weber also has an excellent Triple-A track record, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA in 360 1/3 innings there.

Even if Weber does surface as a serviceable rotation piece, Boston’s collection of starters is shaky following yesterday’s announcement that Chris Sale will miss the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. Eduardo Rodriguez turned in the finest season of his career in 2019 and should be a solid leader of the group. But right-hander Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t made more than 21 starts in a season since 2015, and lefty Martin Perez is fresh off a second consecutive sub-par season. The fifth spot in the rotation could go to an opener, although Mastrodonato and other reporters that spoke with Roenicke yesterday noted that he also mentioned lefty Brian Johnson as a possibility.

Sox fans may hope that righty Collin McHugh, signed as a free agent earlier this month, could eventually emerge as an option. However, The Athletic’s Chad Jennings wrote yesterday (subscription required) that McHugh still hasn’t begun a throwing program as he works back from elbow troubles of his own. He’s reportedly been cleared to do so, although workouts for all players are in limbo to some extent, given the suspended state of play. Perhaps by the time the season eventually gets underway, he’ll be built up, but it’s difficult to pencil him in even as a tentative rotation piece for the time being.

The Red Sox’ lineup should still be solid even without Mookie Betts, anchored by a formidable trio of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez. But between Sale’s surgery, the trade of Price and the lack of a steady addition in the offseason, Boston’s starting staff looks like it’ll be a patchwork unit.

Red Sox Option Josh Osich

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The Red Sox have optioned left-handed reliever Josh Osich to Triple-A Pawtucket, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom announced Thursday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe).

Osich, whom the Red Sox claimed from the White Sox last October, was competing for a spot in Boston’s bullpen before the coronavirus reared its ugly head. The 31-year-old garnered quite a bit of experience between the Giants and White Sox from 2015-19, though he wasn’t especially effective during that span. Thus far, despite a strong 48.5 percent groundball rate, Osich has pitched to a 4.88 ERA/5.14 FIP with 7.95 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9.

To his credit, Osich has been tough for same-handed hitters to deal with, as shown by their .286 weighted on-base average against him during his career. However, righties have smacked him around for a .375 wOBA. That’s not going to cut it in a league that will implement a three-batter minimum rule for pitchers whenever the regular season starts.

Chris Sale To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery, as per a team announcement.  Sale will be out of action for roughly the next 12-15 months, as per the usual recovery timeline, and will miss all of the 2020 season.

The news less than three weeks after Sale was diagnosed with a flexor strain, following some elbow soreness in his throwing elbow.  Sale only resumed throwing yesterday, though it’s fair to assume that he experienced further discomfort that resulted in today’s decision.

The Red Sox press release didn’t include any actual date for Sale’s surgery, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post speculated that it could perhaps be some time before Sale actually goes under the knife, given how elective medical procedures are increasingly being canceled (both in the United States and all around the world) in order to give hospitals and doctors more time to focus on the coronavirus pandemic.  It’s also worth wondering if the uncertainty surrounding how much (or any) of the 2020 season will be played could have contributed to Sale’s decision, as he perhaps figured that missing time now was preferable to missing time when games were firmly on the schedule.  Regardless, Sale will now miss whatever exists of the 2020 campaign and also likely at least two or three months of the 2021 season.

Due to his relatively thin stature and his unique throwing motion, durability questions dogged Sale as far back as his days as a vaunted prospect coming out of Florida Gulf Coast University, to the point that he dropped to the White Sox with the 13th pick of the 2010 draft.  Sale proved those criticisms wrong after almost a full decade as one of the game’s best starters, with a career 3.03 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and the best career K/BB rate (5.37) in baseball history, while also averaging 205 innings per season between 2012-17.

The Red Sox acquired Sale in a December 2016 blockbuster trade that saw budding superstar Yoan Moncada go to Chicago, though the hefty price tag was worth it from Boston’s perspective, given Sale’s strong results for the club and his role in helping the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series.  That said, Sale seemed to wear down at the end of the 2017 season and was bothered by shoulder problems late in the 2018 campaign, which led the Sox to limit his innings down the stretch and during their postseason run.

Those injury concerns didn’t stop Boston from signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension almost exactly one year ago.  That deal covered the 2020-24 seasons, meaning the Red Sox won’t see any return on that investment for at least the next 15 months.  Warning signs already began to crop up last season, as Sale got off to a slow start and only somewhat looked like himself (a career-high 4.40 ERA, though advanced metrics painted a much more favorable picture of his 2019 performance) over 147 1/3 innings before being shut down in mid-August due to elbow inflammation.  Treatment for that inflammation included a platelet-rich plasma injection in Sale’s elbow, and he was seemingly making good progress in his offseason workouts before a bout of pneumonia set him back a couple of weeks.

Given that so much of Boston’s offseason revolved around getting under the luxury tax threshold, the Sale extension now looms as a seriously questionable decision.  If Sale hadn’t been extended and his $25.6MM average annual value wasn’t on the team’s books, the Red Sox wouldn’t have faced nearly the (self-imposed) crunch to reset their tax bill after two years of overages.  This could have meant the Sox may have explored other, lower-level methods of getting under the $208MM threshold rather than the extreme measure of trading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.

With Sale now out of the picture entirely for 2020, Eduardo Rodriguez is now the ace of the Red Sox rotation following the lefty’s big 2019 performance.  E-Rod leaves a staff that is severely lacking in sure things, as Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and Collin McHugh are all looking to rebound from either injury or inconsistency last season (McHugh could even still wind up in the bullpen).  A long list of names were competing for the final two rotation jobs before Spring Training was halted, and manager Ron Roenicke hinted that the Sox would use an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for at least one of the two slots.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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A transformative offseason for the Red Sox saw the club trade its franchise player, make an unexpected managerial change, and (perhaps most importantly in ownership’s view?) duck under the luxury tax threshold.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

When Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, Mookie Betts, and David Price were all taking turns hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy in October 2018, it would’ve seemed inconceivable that all four men would no longer be members of the Red Sox organization just 15 months later.  And yet, it didn’t take long for the Sox to go from a 108-win World Series champion to a team suddenly facing a lot of questions.

Dombrowski was the first to depart, let go in early September amidst some reports suggesting Red Sox ownership considered firing him even a year prior.  As surprising as Dombrowski’s ouster was, Cora’s quick fall from grace was even more of a shock.  After the league’s report on the Astros’ sign-stealing exploits during the 2017 season cited Cora (then the Astros’ bench coach) as a key author of how Houston’s system of video footage and trash can-banging was constructed, the Sox fired Cora before MLB could announce even what punishment the now-former Red Sox skipper would face.

Speaking of stolen signs, the Red Sox are still currently awaiting the results of Major League Baseball’s investigation into whether or not the Sox made inappropriate use of video footage to steal signs during their own World Series campaign in 2018.  While the Red Sox aren’t expected to be as punished as severely as the Astros were, it’s probably safe to assume that some type of penalty is forthcoming, perhaps in the form of a lost draft pick or two.

Needless to say, Chaim Bloom had a lot to deal with after being hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer in late October.  Bloom was already deep into offseason business before having to deal with an unforeseen managerial change, which could be one reason why the Sox chose to promote from within by naming bench coach Ron Roenicke as the interim manager.  Roenicke is a safe choice but hardly a bad one, as he is a known figure to Boston’s roster and had success in his only prior big league managerial stint with the Brewers from 2011-15.  If the Sox play well in 2020, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Roenicke become a longer-term answer in Boston’s dugout.

As a longtime member of the Rays front office, Bloom’s first offseason in total control of a baseball operations department resulted in something of a Tampa Bay-esque winter for the Sox.  It was an offseason of mostly low-cost signings and acquisitions, while moving a pair of expensive players in a trade that was driven largely by financial motivations.

Let’s start with the biggest blockbuster of the entire offseason: the Betts/Price trade with the Dodgers. What began as a three-team deal involving the Twins turned into another Los Angeles/Boston blockbuster after the Sox took issue with the medical records of Minnesota prospect Brusdar Graterol, who was supposed to be the one of the young minor league centerpieces headed to Boston in the deal.  In the end, the three-team arrangement was broken down in to two separate deals, with Graterol ending up going to Los Angeles as part of the trade that sent Kenta Maeda to the Twins, and the Red Sox swinging a deal with the Dodgers that saw Betts, Price, and $48MM (covering half of Price’s contract) for three interesting young talents.

Jeter Downs immediately became the top prospect in Boston’s farm system and potential second baseman of the future, while catcher/infielder Connor Wong also gives the Red Sox a future option behind the plate or even as a multi-positional backup catcher.  Both of these youngsters could be on track for the big leagues as early as 2021, while outfielder Alex Verdugo is already coming off a strong performance (.294/.342/.475 in 377 PA) in 2019, his first extended stint against Major League pitching.  Verdugo is expected to take over for Betts in right field, perhaps as early as the new Opening Day, as the delayed start to the season will likely give him time to recover from a stress fracture in his lower back.

It’s not at all a bad prospect haul, yet it’s also one many Boston fans and media members found inconceivable, given that one of pro sports’ wealthiest franchises was surrendering one of the game’s best players in what seemed like more or less a salary dump.  Principal owner John Henry’s late-September statement that the 2020 Sox “need to be under” the Competitive Balance Tax threshold after two seasons of overages loomed large over each transaction Bloom made this winter, no matter how much Henry tried to downplay his original comments both before and after the Betts trade.  Boston’s luxury tax number now stands at just under $196MM, as per Roster Resource, below the $208MM luxury tax threshold and indeed putting the Red Sox in line to reset their tax bill to zero.

A third consecutive season of CBT overage would have cost the Sox a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM threshold, plus an additional 12 percent surtax if their luxury tax number stood within the secondary penalty range ($228MM-$248MM).  As well, the Red Sox would’ve received a 50 percent deduction in their cut of revenue-sharing rebates, as outlined by the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.

As of mid-January, Boston’s luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $237.89MM, so that third-timer penalty rate wouldn’t have been an insignificant extra expenditure….yet considering the franchise’s vast resources, it’s also hard to consider it a truly significant expenditure either, considering the on-field value lost by removing Betts from the lineup.

With a bit more hindsight, the Sox could’ve given themselves more CBT breathing room had they non-tendered Jackie Bradley Jr. back in December, as their subsequent efforts to trade the center fielder ended up fruitless.  Perhaps the Red Sox could have re-signed Bradley for a lower amount than his $11MM salary, or perhaps just replaced him with Kevin Pillar (a comparable player) at a much lesser price.  An outfield of Betts, Pillar, and Andrew Benintendi clearly looks more imposing than Boston’s current alignment of Verdugo, Bradley, and Benintendi, with Pillar as the fourth outfielder.

From a pure baseball perspective, Boston’s argument for trading Betts was that it made more sense to deal him now rather than risk letting him leave in free agency for nothing (save a qualifying offer compensation pick) next winter, or perhaps dealing him for a lesser package closer to the trade deadline if the Red Sox were out of the playoff race.  But, ownership has maintained all along that they intend the Sox to be contenders in 2020, and trading Betts and Price runs counter to that notion.

Going back to the hypothetical scenario I floated earlier, let’s pretend the Red Sox kept Price and Betts, non-tendered Bradley, and still signed Pillar and Mitch Moreland.  Let’s also assume a few more dollars are spent here and there over the course of the season to bring Boston’s tax number to $245MM.  That works out to a three-timer CBT bill just shy of $21MM, plus the approximately $6MM in lost revenue-sharing rebate money as calculated in Speier’s piece.

In essence, that makes the decision to trade Betts and Price a $27MM choice in terms of immediate money, plus the Red Sox get the peace of mind of knowing that they’re under the threshold now rather than having to perhaps scramble next winter to avoid a fourth year of CBT payments.  Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez are due for big arbitration raises next offseason, which would’ve counteracted some of the savings from having Moreland, Pillar, Perez, Workman, and still-with-the-Red Sox Betts all coming off the books.  (Plus, J.D. Martinez also has another opt-out decision at season’s end, so he might not be part of the 2021 roster.)

Is saving $27MM worth a much more difficult path back to the postseason?  Even with Betts and Price, obviously the Red Sox would’ve still faced a stiff test from their AL East rivals, plus more competition from the American League as a whole for wild card positions.  But, had the Sox not been in contention by the deadline this year, they could’ve traded some contracts to duck under the luxury tax anyway — or, had until the end of the 2021 season to figure out ways to avoid paying a penalty for a fourth straight season.

The Reds, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Padres were all reported to have interest in acquiring Price over the offseason, but since the Red Sox weren’t able to trade the left-hander (and enough of his $96MM contract) alone, they ultimately had to package Price together with Betts to finally swing a deal.  Figuring out a solo Price deal quite possibly could have kept Betts in a Sox uniform in 2020, though Price’s own departure has no small impact on Boston’s roster.

Martin Perez was signed prior to the Price trade, but he will essentially serve as a southpaw-for-southpaw replacement in the rotation.  Perez had a fairly hot start to his 2019 season with Minnesota but saw his productivity plummet beginning in late May.  As much as Bloom is optimistic about Perez’s untapped potential, the lefty has been a mid-rotation innings-eater even during the best of times during his eight MLB seasons.

While Price’s age and injury history also make him a question mark heading into 2020, his presence would’ve brought more stability to the pitching staff than the current mix.  Ostensible staff ace Chris Sale is battling elbow problems and could still potentially face some type of surgery, though he’s begun a throwing program, and the Sox are hoping the extra rest in the elongated offseason allows Sale time to heal without missing any games.  Rodriguez is coming off a strong year, but Nathan Eovaldi is coming off an injury-plagued season and a wide array of arms (or an opener) could end up filling that fifth rotation spot.  The newly-signed Collin McHugh is a bit of a wild card as a either a rotation or bullpen candidate, assuming McHugh (who was only cleared to throw in late February) is himself healthy after dealing with elbow injuries.

McHugh could ultimately make more of an impact to the relief corps, which didn’t get much attention despite an overall middle-of-the-road performance in 2019.  The Sox are hoping that a change in roles can help, as Brandon Workman’s emergence as the closer can add some clarity to the rest of the bullpen’s roles.  If openers do become a part of Boston’s rotation picture, there could be more mix-and-match than usual in the Red Sox pen, perhaps taking a page from how the Rays used their relievers under Bloom over the last couple of seasons.

Besides Price, the Red Sox said goodbye to another veteran starter this offseason when Rick Porcello signed a free agent contract with the Mets.  A pair of other recent roster staples also departed, as super-utilityman Brock Holt signed with the Brewers and backup catcher Sandy Leon was dealt to the Indians.  New signings Kevin Plawecki and Jonathan Lucroy are competing for the backup catching job, while Jose Peraza will now somewhat replace Holt as a multi-position asset.  For now, Boston plans to use Peraza mostly as a second baseman, splitting time with Michael Chavis whenever Chavis isn’t filling in for Moreland at first base against left-handed pitching.  However, Peraza has experience at short and in the outfield, so he could move around in the event of injuries elsewhere on the roster.

2020 Season Outlook

We’ve gone this deep into the offseason review without really mentioning the three biggest reasons why the Red Sox could still contend for a wild card berth — Devers, Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, who form as tough of a 1-2-3 punch as any lineup trio in baseball.  That group of sluggers goes a long way towards propping up a lineup that has some uncertainty, but also a lot of potential in Christian Vazquez, Verdugo, Benintendi, Chavis, Peraza and Moreland.  Even pitching-wise, despite all the injury questions, the Sox certainly have talent on hand if Sale and Eovaldi can stay healthy and Rodriguez matches his 2019 form.

Simply running it back with Betts and Price on this roster would’ve been a perfectly respectable idea on paper, except that Red Sox ownership felt it was more prudent to take a step back to reload the farm system and take the opportunity to get what they felt was an untenable contract (Price) off the books.  Ideally, the Sox wouldn’t have had to trade Betts to make that work, though perhaps reading between the tea leaves, the club felt Betts wasn’t going to re-sign with with Boston anyway next winter, making him ultimately expendable as a trade chip rather than as a long-term asset.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for the Fenway faithful, who have a right to be annoyed that the same Red Sox ownership group who has okayed several big-money signings and extensions over the years now feel the “need to” (to use Henry’s words from September) enact some financial prudence, even if it meant trading Betts.  Time will tell if the decision ends up being wise, but the window of contention that looked so wide open after the 2018 season is now much narrower.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason?  (Link for app users.)

Chris Sale Begins Throwing Program

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Red Sox ace Chris Sale has begun a throwing program at the team’s spring complex, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. It’s the first throwing action for the left-hander since he was diagnosed with a flexor strain earlier this month.

Sale’s health has been an ongoing point of discussion for upwards of 18 months in Boston. The southpaw spent two stints on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation late in the 2018 season, but the Sox were convinced of his health last spring when signing him to a five-year, $145MM contract extension. Concerns escalated when Sale experienced a dip in velocity early in the ’19 season and pitched to an alarming 6.30 ERA through the end of April.

However, Sale’s velocity trended back up, and over his next 15 starts, he looked like his vintage self: 93 2/3 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a sensational 150-to-22 K/BB ratio. Three of his next four (and final four) starts of the season were clunkers, though, and Sale went on the shelf for the remainder of the season on Aug. 17.

Sale was cleared of ligament damage last August and underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection as well as a six-week period of rest and rehab. The lefty went through an offseason throwing program but was slowed by pneumonia early in camp before undergoing an MRI that revealed the flexor strain he’s currently battling. He’s been cleared of ligament damage, but Speier notes that surgery to repair the flexor issue remains a possibility if the throwing program doesn’t go well.

The Red Sox are paying Sale $30MM in 2020 — the first season of his front-loaded extension. The delayed start to the 2020 season could give him an opportunity to return to health prior to Opening Day (the date of which remains unclear) — an outcome that didn’t appear possible just weeks ago. That would be a substantial boost for the Red Sox, as their rotation behind the lefty is mired with question marks. Eduardo Rodriguez is presently projected to get the Opening Day nod. He’ll be followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez and a yet-to-be-determined fourth and fifth starter. If Sale is healthy, the Sox would only need to fill one spot; Collin McHugh (who is also on the mend), Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Kyle Hart and Mike Shawaryn are among the in-house options.

Jose Peraza Discusses Free Agency

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Jose Peraza was linked to the Orioles, Indians, and two other unknown teams this offseason, though Peraza tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he heard from eight or nine clubs while on the open market.  Peraza chose to sign with the Red Sox because of their recent success (“It’s a great place to play baseball if you want to win a championship“) and the opportunity they presented for regular second base work.  “Second base is my most comfortable position.  I played a lot of second base in the minors.  I know I can help this team playing there,” Peraza said.  He saw quite a bit of second base action over his four seasons in Cincinnati, though the Reds gave Peraza more time as a shortstop (almost exclusively so in 2018) and also used him as an outfielder.  Peraza might get some utility action with the Sox but will likely see the most action as Boston’s first-choice option at the keystone.

Latest On Chris Sale

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  • One pitcher whose routine may not be impacted by the elongated offseason is Chris Sale, as Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that “from a medical perspective, nothing really changes with” Sale’s loosely-established timeline.  “There’s uncertainty regarding his pitching status generally that we want to resolve.  We’re still going to want to resolve that,” Bloom said.  “We’re still going to want to progress him.  We haven’t gotten to that point yet, but we’re still going to work, even during this time period, without games, to get some progress and get some more definition on his status.”  A flexor strain led to Sale being shut down earlier this month, and if all is proceeding well, he should be on the verge of resuming throwing.  The delayed Opening Day could mean that Sale won’t miss any regular-season action, though naturally the Sox are taking things as carefully as possible with the ace southpaw.

Red Sox Renew Rafael Devers' 2020 Contract

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  • The Red Sox have renewed third baseman Rafael Devers for $692,500, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. This will be the last pre-arb year for Devers, who’s eligible to reach arbitration for the first of three potential times next offseason. It stands to reason the Red Sox will try to keep Devers around for the long haul, considering his tremendous output last year, but the two parties haven’t engaged in extension talks yet.

Red Sox Catchers Employing New Catching Stance

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  • In non-virus news, catchers around the league are giving umpires a better view to call balls and strikes by receiving from a knee instead of the traditional crouch, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Christian Vazquez employed the stance for the Red Sox some last year, and the returns were good. He finished fifth in statcast’s Runs from Extra Strikes metric, trailing only Roberto Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers and Austin Hedges, the latter of whom led the field by a substantial margin. Red Sox interim manager Ron Roenicke notes that receiving from a knee makes it tougher to block pitches, but the premium placed on stealing strikes makes the tradeoff worth it on the whole. 

Orioles Claim Hector Velazquez

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The Baltimore Orioles added Hector Velazquez to their roster today, claiming the right-hander off waivers from the Boston Red Sox, tweets Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. The Orioles PR department has confirmed the move. The Red Sox DFA’ed Velazquez on March 5.

Velazquez, 31, spent the last couple of seasons as a swingman in Boston. After a solid season as a starter in 2017 for for the Pawtucket Red Sox, he made his big league with 8 appearances spread out throughout the year. The total product got Velazquez more involved in the Red Sox’ 2018 title run as he threw 85 innings, appeared in 47 games, and finished with a 3.18 ERA/4.15 FIP. Outside of a couple of stints on the IL, Velazquez spent most of 2018 on the major league roster.

Last season was more of an up-and-down year for Velazquez both in terms of performance and his relationship to Triple-A. The sinkerballer made 34 total appearances for the Red Sox, starting 8 games for the second consecutive season, and finishing with a 5.43 ERA/4.74 FIP. Somewhat nontraditionally, Velazquez threw more changeups in 2019 than any other offering, though on the whole, he invokes a relatively egalitarian mix of sinkers, changeups, fastballs and sliders.

The Orioles will add him to their long relief mix, tweets MASN’s Roch Kubatko. It’s been an offseason-long goal for the Orioles to add pitching depth so as to avoid rushing naive arms to the majors.

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