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Red Sox, Rangers Swap Sam Travis For Jeffrey Springs

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The Rangers have acquired first baseman Sam Travis from the Red Sox in exchange for left-hander Jeffrey Springs, the teams announced. Boston has designated left-hander Bobby Poyner to make room on the 40-man roster.

Both Travis and Springs were recently designated for assignment, though Travis had already cleared waivers and been outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster. Springs, meanwhile, was only designated earlier this afternoon. The Rangers will now pick up Travis’ rights without needing to dedicate a 40-man roster spot to the former prospect. The Red Sox, meanwhile, clearly feel they’re upgrading their left-handed bullpen depth in going with Springs over Poyner.

Travis, 26, was a second-round pick back in 2014 and frequented Red Sox prospect rankings as he rapidly ascended through the lower minors. However, while he hit well up through the Double-A level, Travis saw his bat stall in Triple-A and, despite a series of looks in the Majors, never made good at the game’s top level, either. In all, he’s a .267/.339/.392 hitter in nearly 1200 Triple-A plate appearances and just a .230/.288/.371 hitter in 278 MLB trips to the plate.

That said, the Rangers aren’t exactly teeming with quality first base options. Former top prospect Ronald Guzman hasn’t distinguished himself in his own MLB tryouts to date, and the club is intent on playing Joey Gallo in the outfield. Newly signed Todd Frazier could certainly handle first base if the Texas organization adds a more prominent option at third base, but there’s little harm in stashing Travis as a depth piece in hopes that a change of scenery brings out some of his yet-untapped potential.

The 27-year-old Springs, meanwhile, struggled to a 6.40 ERA with 32 strikeouts against 23 walks in 32 1/3 innings with Texas in 2019. He’s posted huge strikeout numbers in the upper minors and enjoyed better success with the Rangers in 2018 than in 2019, but he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with below-average velocity who saw his opponents’ hard-hit rate soar in 2019. Springs does have three minor league option years remaining, so he’ll be an optionable piece of depth for the Sox for the foreseeable future — assuming he sticks on the roster.

Poyner, meanwhile, has a minor league option of his own remaining. Like Springs, he’s a 27-year-old who posted solid numbers in 2018 but struggled in 2019. The similarities don’t stop there, as Poyner saw his hard-hit rate and opponents’ exit velocity both jump in 2019. However, he doesn’t have Springs’ gaudy strikeout totals and averages just 89.8 mph on his heater to Springs’ 91.7 mph. Boston will have a week to trade, outright or release Poyner.

Red Sox Fire Alex Cora

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The Red Sox announced Tuesday evening that manager Alex Cora will not return as their manager in 2020. The news comes one day after MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced the results of his investigation into the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, wherein Cora was revealed to be one of the architects of Houston’s trash-can system. The Red Sox organization issued the following statement:

Today we met to discuss the Commissioner’s report related to the Houston Astros investigation.  Given the findings and the Commissioner’s ruling, we collectively decided that it would not be possible for Alex to effectively lead the club going forward and we mutually agreed to part ways.

The Red Sox’ usage of “mutually agreed to part ways” notwithstanding, there’s no way that Cora would’ve been ousted as manager were it not for his role in the sign-stealing scandal. It’s been extraordinarily difficult to fathom a scenario in which Cora would’ve stayed on as manager after Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were fired by the Astros yesterday, given his involvement in the Astros’ scandal as well as the current investigation of the Red Sox’ 2018 . The now-former manager issued a statement of his own:

“I want to thank John, Tom, Sam, the players, our coaching staff and the entire Red Sox organization.  I especially want to thank my family for their love and support. We agreed today that parting ways was the best thing for the organization. I do not want to be a distraction to the Red Sox as they move forward.  My two years as manager were the best years of my life. It was an honor to manage these teams and help bring a World Series Championship back to Boston. I will forever be indebted to the organization and the fans who supported me as a player, a manager and in my efforts to help Puerto Rico. This is a special place. There is nothing like it in all of baseball, and I will miss it dearly.”

As was the case when Houston let go of its GM-manager tandem, this represents a stunning turn of mid-winter events for Boston. In terms of wins and losses, the two-year Cora era was especially fruitful for the Red Sox. As Cora mentioned, he helped the club to a championship in 2018 – his first year on the job and one in which it piled up a whopping 108 regular-season victories before steamrolling the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in the playoffs. Of course, now that the league’s investigating Cora, there are perhaps questions about the legitimacy of that title.

Last season was far less successful for Cora and the Red Sox, though they were still an above-average team that won 84 games. Now, depending on how MLB disciplines Cora, that could go down as his final season as a manager in the league. Cora’s reportedly facing “harsh” punishment for his misdeeds, so the end of his Red Sox tenure seems likely to serve as a forerunner to a significant suspension.

The Boston organization, like Houston, now finds itself in the once-unimaginable position of suddenly having to find a new manager just weeks before pitchers and catchers report to camp. The responsibility rests with new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who inherited Cora from ousted president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

This post was originally published on 1-14-20.

Check out our new video below (app users click here), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd lays out the implications of Cora’s dismissal as well as the Twins’ signing of Josh Donaldson.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

News & Notes On Astros Punishment

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If you missed it yesterday, the Astros sign-stealing scandal reached a breaking point. The organization was fined $5MM and lost its top two draft choices in each of the next two drafts. The club canned GM Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch after each received one-year league suspensions. Individual players were not punished. Former bench coach and current Red Sox manager Alex Cora awaits his fate.

We ran some polls on the punishment. You can add your opinion there. But don’t expect to hear from other organizations at this time. We also covered an apparent leaguewide gag order on the controversy that emerged last night through a curious club announcement from the Dodgers.

Let’s run through some other notes and reactions …

  • Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains how the draft situation will be resolved. Rather than simply striking the Astros’ picks from existence, and reducing the overall spending pool by a significant figure, MLB will bump every other team up a peg in the slotting system. That’ll result in only a relatively meager reduction in the total draft spending outlay that incoming professionals can receive. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com looks at the lost prospect value for the Astros. It’s reasonably significant, though it’s important to highlight the fact that the Houston club was already locked into a low choice for the coming season and seems highly likely (barring a change in organizational direction) to select down the line again in 2021. While there’s no questioning the impact to the overall slate of talent that the team will be able to pull from these two drafts, it’s not likely that the ’Stros will end up missing out on down-the-line superstars.
  • There’s still a lack of clarity regarding the near-term leadership of the Houston baseball ops department and dugout. In the front office, Crane says he’ll run things for the time being (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand; Twitter links). He also noted that he still employs someone who was brought in previously for GM interviews by other organizations — clearly, a reference to assistant GM Pete Putila. It stands to reason that Putila will be leaned upon heavily in the near-term, though the long-term plan remains to be seen. Feinsand further tweets that bench coach Joe Espada is “expected” to take over for Hinch. It’s fair to wonder whether these approaches are really set in stone. Crane said he was looking for a blank slate and said the team’s internal assessments were still ongoing. Perhaps there’s a path for Putila and/or Espada to take on expanded roles, but that’ll surely depend in no small part upon whether either ends up being implicated in whole or part in the scandal. And Crane will need to consider whether an immediate outside hire or two would be wise — a tough move at this late juncture of the offseason.
  • ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan examines the (still muted) reaction from around the game. It seems that other teams aren’t overly impressed by the seriousness of the sanctions, which were announced by Manfred in a conference call in which he also made clear that there was to be no public whining. But anonymous complaints are perhaps only beginning. Passan reports that those in other organizations feel the Astros — and Crane in particular — were able to orchestrate things to perfection. As we noted yesterday in our above-linked poll, Manfred cabined responsibility to the Astros’ baseball operations while specifically absolving Crane (and the team’s business side as well). And Crane got to put on a public show of shock and contrition, filling the airwaves with his emotional response and the drama of a live, public firing announcement.
  • That report mirrors the earlier trickles of reactions that we have seen. An unnamed top executive that spoke with ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn (Twitter link) explained why even the seemingly harsh sanctions weren’t really adequate. The impact on game and season/postseason outcomes is impossible to isolate but unquestionably significant. Quite a few opposing players surely missed out on earning opportunities, whether through missing postseason proceeds, dents to their statistical track record, and/or lost MLB opportunities. The same is true of rival organizations, though it seems in at least some cases they may also have misused technology — albeit not, so far as has been alleged, in anything like the manner the Astros did. None of that can be unwound, but it’s important perspective.
  • Additional top baseball decisionmakers spoke to that same point with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The damage is widespread. So is the blame, Rosenthal opines. While we’ll all have our preferred villains and heroes in the scandal, perhaps none but a few brave whistleblowers deserve anything approaching plaudits. If Luhnow’s punishment reflected the culture he created within the Houston organization, as much as anything, then perhaps Manfred carries an analogous responsibility for the sport’s overall spiral in this arena. Rosenthal says “this is Manfred’s sport,” hinting at a lack of foresight in rolling out replay streams and facilitating the rise of a generation of “general managers emboldened by analytics, all trying to outsmart one another.”

MLB To Suspend Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch For One Year; Astros Stripped Of Draft Picks

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Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred announced an unprecedented level of discipline against the Astros organization Monday in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal that many feel has called into question the legitimacy of their 2017 World Series victory. President of baseball operations/general manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch will both be suspended, without pay, for one year — beginning today and running through Jan. 13, 2021.

[RELATED: Astros Fire Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch]

The Astros will also lose their first- and second-round picks in each of the next two seasons and be fined the maximum $5MM that is allowable under the league’s constitution. If the team does not have a first- or second-round selection in either draft — due to draft forfeitures for signing a free agent, for instance — they’ll lose that pick in the subsequent year’s draft. Per Manfred’s report on the investigation, the Astros “will forfeit two regular first round selections and two regular second round selections in total,” whether they come in 2020-21 or in later seasons.

Punishment stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal won’t stop with the Astros organization, either. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that “harsh” punishment will be levied against Red Sox manager Alex Cora as well for the role he played in the now-infamous “trash can” setup. Cora was the Astros’ bench coach at the time but was hired by the Red Sox in the 2017-18 offseason, and Manfred’s report leaves little doubt that he’ll be sanctioned heavily.

Manfred’s report outlines the role that Luhnow, Hinch, Cora and the Astros’ players had not only in the trash-can scheme but also in improperly utilizing the reply review room to decode opponents’ signs. Manfred’s report also explains the rationale for the punishment (or, in Cora’s case, the surely forthcoming punishment).

Beginning with Luhnow, Manfred details that the president/GM was “adamant” in denying knowledge of the ongoing sign-stealing scheme. However, the report cites “both documentary and testimonial evidence” which indicates that Luhnow had “some” knowledge of the operation but “did not give it much attention.” Manfred makes clear that he holds Luhnow accountable for the action of all employees, both in the front office and in the dugout, and he goes out of his way to explain that Luhnow largely neglected the memo sent out by the Commissioner’s Office regarding further disciplinary measures for improper use of technology:

Luhnow did not forward the memoranda and did not confirm that the players and field staff were in compliance with MLB rules and the memoranda. Had Luhnow taken those steps in September 2017, it is clear to me that the Astros would have ceased both sign-stealing schemes at that time.

Manfred’s report goes on to suggest that under Luhnow, the Astros’ baseball operations department has developed a “problematic” and “insular” culture that has lacked “sufficient oversight” — all of which is reflected in Luhnow’s punishment:

[W]hile no one can dispute that Luhnow’s baseball operations department is an industry leader in its analytics, it is very clear to me that the culture of the baseball operations department, manifesting itself in the way its employees are treated, its relations with other Clubs, and its relations with the media and external stakeholders, has been very problematic. At least in my view, the baseball operations department’s insular culture – one that valued and rewarded results over other considerations, combined with a staff of individuals who often lacked direction or sufficient oversight, led, at least in part,to the Brandon Taubman incident, the Club’s admittedly inappropriate and inaccurate response to that incident, and finally, to an environment that allowed the conduct described in this report to have occurred.

As far as Hinch is concerned, Manfred indicates in his report that the manager was aware but not supportive of the trash-can system. That system, it seems, was largely put into place by Cora and newly hired Mets skipper Carlos Beltran. Hinch, according to the league’s investigation, actually expressed frustration with the operation and damaged the hallway monitor to the point of needing replacement on two occasions, but he also never brought the issue to the attention of Luhnow or anyone in the Commissioner’s Office. “As the person with responsibility for managing his players and coaches, there simply is no justification for Hinch’s failure to act,” the report reads.

Furthermore, the report leaves little doubt that harsh punishment indeed is nigh for Cora. Manfred indicates that it was Cora who “arranged for a video room technician to install a monitor displaying the center field camera feed immediately outside of the Astros’ dugout.” Says Manfred of the impending discipline for Cora:

Cora was involved in developing both the banging scheme and utilizing the replay review room to decode and transmit signs. Cora participated in both schemes, and through his active participation, implicitly condoned the players’conduct. I will withhold determining the appropriate level of discipline for Cora until after the DOI completes its investigation of the allegations that the Red Sox engaged in impermissible electronic sign stealing in 2018 while Cora was the manager.

As for the players themselves, the Commissioner’s Office will not be seeking out punishment against them. That seemingly includes Beltran, who is being treated as a player (as he was in ’17) rather than his newfound role as a Major League manager. Manfred explains that in 2017, he made the decision that he “would hold a Club’s General Manager and Field Manager accountable for misconduct of this kind” and has no plans to deviate from that line of thinking. He’s also clear to note that multiple players acknowledged they were keenly aware that they were crossing a line and would have stopped had Hinch or another authority figure cracked down on the behavior — a reality that surely factored into the decision to suspend Hinch.

As for owner Jim Crane, the report indicates that he was “unaware” of any wrongdoing and will not face punishment outside of the reported $5MM fine and loss of two years’ worth of first- and second-round draft selections.

Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic first reported the news.

Owner John Henry: Red Sox Are “Focused On Competitiveness…Over And Above Resetting” Luxury Tax Payment

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Payroll concerns have been the prominent storyline of the Red Sox offseason, especially given the team’s relative lack of major moves.  There has been much more attention paid to the club’s apparent attempts to trade such high-salaried players as David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., or perhaps even Mookie Betts in order to avoid surpassing the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the third consecutive season, based on comments made by Red Sox principal owner John Henry last September.

During a season wrap-up press conference, Henry said “This year we need to be under the CBT.  That is something we’ve known for more than a year now.”  This statement was already partially walked back by team CEO Sam Kennedy a few days later, as Kennedy said that avoiding a luxury tax penalty was “goal but not a mandate” for the coming season.

Henry further discussed the team’s financial direction in a recent e-mail exchange with Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe.  This past week, Shaughnessy contacted top executives with the Red Sox and the umbrella Fenway Sports Group ownership company asking “I am working on a column in which I will suggest that there was no plan to disclose the mandate to get under the $208MM luxury tax threshold before you went into the September 27 press conference.  It felt like John just came out with it spontaneously.  And now that is the charge for [newly-hired chief baseball officer] Chaim Bloom. Is this accurate?“

In response to the question, Henry sent this message…

“You might actually be right for once in that I don’t plan what I’m going to say before answering media questions in a live media event. But this focus on CBT resides with the media far more than it does within the Sox.  I think every team probably wants to reset at least once every three years — that’s sort of been the history — but just this week…I reminded baseball ops that we are focused on competitiveness over the next 5 years over and above resetting to which they said, ’That’s exactly how we’ve been approaching it.’ ”

“You seem to think Chaim was brought in to reduce payroll.  That has simply not been the way FSG operates here or across the pond.  We try to act responsibly so as to be consistently competitive.  Your main point seems to be that I accidentally disclosed a secret plan but unlike you, I am honest about Sox issues.  The question was asked and I answered it.”

Whereas Henry’s September comment about the “need to be under the CBT” seemed rather direct, this latest statement implies that Henry was only speaking in broader terms about his team’s (or any team’s) long-term payroll goals.  Obviously, every club would prefer to avoid the luxury tax whenever possible, and especially avoid three straight years of CBT overages to avoid the maximum “three-timer” penalty of a 50% tax rate on any overages.

According to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Red Sox have a luxury tax number of just under $237.89MM for their 2020 payroll, putting them in line for a third straight year of overages.  The Sox already surpassed the CBT threshold in both 2018 and 2019, costing them roughly (by the estimate of Cot’s Baseball Contracts) $25.37MM in tax payments.  Also, for spending more than the maximum $40MM over the threshold in 2018, Boston’s top pick in the 2019 draft was dropped back ten slots in the draft order.

(As always, it should be noted that the CBT isn’t at all a hard salary cap, so a “need” to avoid the tax is ultimately more of an ownership preference for both the Red Sox and any other team in baseball.  To use Boston’s overages from the last two years as an example, $25.37MM over a two-year span isn’t exactly a major expenditure for any franchise, especially a big-revenue club like the Red Sox.)

To this point, it’s been a pretty quiet offseason for Bloom and his front office.  While the club hasn’t shed any of its heftiest contracts, the Sox also haven’t made any big expenditures, with Martin Perez and Jose Peraza representing Boston’s most notable additions.  Given that there has been virtually no buzz connecting the Red Sox to any major free agents or trade targets, it’s probably safe to assume that the team’s payroll won’t be going up.  While Bloom may not be under any overt directive to cut salaries, the question may be just how a fine line Bloom has to walk in trying to keep the team competitive in 2020 while not incurring an even larger luxury tax bill.

Red Sox, Trevor Hildenberger Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Red Sox have signed right-handed pitcher Trevor Hildenberger to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to Major League camp, according to Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Chris Cotillo of MassLive adds that Hildenberger will earn $700k if he cracks the big league roster. Hildenberger is a client of the Ballengee Group.

Hildenberger, 29, has spent his entire professional career with the Twins after they selected him in the 2014 draft. After establishing himself as a busy piece of the Minnesota bullpen in 2017 and 2018, he fell off dramatically last year, seeing his ERA balloon to an unsightly 10.47 (albeit in just 16 1/3 innings of work). Hildenberger comes at batters from an unorthodox arm slot, which in part allows him to overcome unspectacular velocity. He works primarily with a changeup/sinker combination that frequently induced ground balls until 2019, when his GB% plummeted to 38.1%. The changeup is certainly his most lethal offering, drawing a 38.2 whiff% that surely piqued Boston’s interest.

Of course, the bullpen-needy Red Sox would be remiss if they didn’t take flyers on players of Hildenberger’s ilk. He’s by no means a lock to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s a nice depth option who can compete for innings if he impresses in Spring Training or if injuries strike the Boston bullpen.

 

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

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The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Betts, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, will receive a record-setting $27MM for his final season of club control. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe, meanwhile, tweets that Bradley will earn $11MM. Betts’ record payout comes in $700K shy of his $27.7MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, while Bradley’s $11MM salary is an exact match with his projection.  The Boston organization also locked up righty Brandon Workman to a $3.5MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Betts’ contract sets a record for an arbitration salary, topping previous record holder Nolan Arenado’s old mark by a full million dollars. He’ll head into his final season of club control as one of the more fascinating storylines in baseball; Red Sox ownership reportedly is intent on dipping south of the luxury tax, and while there’s been no indication that the team is definitively planning to move Betts this winter — much the opposite, as of late, in fact — they could find themselves in a trickier situation as the trade deadline approaches.

Boston could yet take another run at extending Betts, but the former AL MVP has been vocal and candid about his desire to test the open market once he accrues six years of Major League service. As such, the team’s previous efforts to hammer out a long-term deal have fallen flat.

It’s another case altogether with Bradley, who is also entering his final year of club control but is a much more plausible trade candidate. Moving him wouldn’t dip the Red Sox below the luxury line in one fell swoop, as moving Betts effectively would, but as the season draws nearer it’d be a surprise if Bradley’s name weren’t bandied about the rumor circuit to an extent. While his overall season numbers in 2019 weren’t particularly eye-catching, Bradley hit .252/.342/.504 over his final 422 plate appearances and has long been considered a standout defender. Given the lack of center field options available in free agency, he could yet hold appeal to a club looking for a short-term boost in center.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, George Springer, and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here. 

As first-year arbitration awards continue to grow with the revenue and payrolls in baseball today, they provide higher platforms through which arbitration records in later years can be more easily broken. Mookie Betts will go through the arbitration process one more time after earning $20.1MM including bonuses during his penultimate year through the arb process, putting him in line to potentially break Nolan Arenado’s record of $26MM his last time through arbitration. Betts’ potential salary is high enough that he has frequently been featured in trade rumors as the Red Sox seek to reset themselves below the luxury tax threshold in 2020.

Either way, Betts’ case is going to simultaneously take a large chunk of someone’s payroll while also being a relative bargain to similarly-producing free agents. After a historic season in 2018 in which Betts hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, and racked up an amazing slash line of .346/.438/.640, Betts had a slightly more pedestrian year — by his standards — in 2019. Betts batted .295 and hit 29 home runs while stealing 16 bases, while recording 80 RBI and a league-leading 135 runs scored.

The model uses the generally accurate fact that players’ salaries in subsequent years in arbitration are determined as raises based on their platform year production alone. So while Betts may not have had a historic season, he does have a good case for breaking Arenado’s record, thanks to Betts’ $20.1MM salary in 2019. My model projects a $7.6MM raise for 2020, which would land the Red Sox outfielder at $27.7MM.

Even coming down to earth in 2019, Betts still put up rare numbers. There are very few hitters who have reached their third year of arbitration eligibility with at least 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases in their platform year — in the last five years, only four players hit both plateaus. Charlie Blackmon got a $6.7MM raise in 2018 after hitting .331 with 37 homers, 104 RBI, and 14 steals the prior year.

Although Blackmon’s batting average obviously bested Betts’ .295, the other three hitters had far lower averages. Todd Frazier hit .225 with 40 HR, 98 RBI, and 15 steals and got just a $3.75MM raise in 2017. Didi Gregorius hit .268/27/86 with 10 stolen bases and got a $3.5MM raise last year, while Aaron Hicks hit .248/27/79 with 11 stolen bases last year en route to a $3.2MM raise.  Still, the Red Sox could argue that Betts may deserve a smaller bump over Frazier, Gregorius, and Hicks, and potentially less than Blackmon’s $6.7MM.

Obviously, we are limiting the potential list of comparables by requiring double-digit stolen bases. A couple more recent names (both third basemen) emerge when dropping that requirement. Anthony Rendon got a $6.5MM raise in 2018 after putting up a solid .301/25/100 campaign — and that could easily serve as a benchmark for Betts. Arenado last year got an $8.25MM raise after a .297/38/110 season. Given that Arenado’s numbers were at Coors Field, Betts could certainly argue for that as a basis.

I suspect Betts would be able to successfully argue for at least topping Rendon’s $6.5MM, although Blackmon’s $6.7MM could be a ceiling. I could see Betts even getting up to an $8.25MM raise like Arenado did last year as well, though that might be more difficult. Based on this list of potential comps, the $5.9MM Betts would need to break Arenado’s record definitely seems doable if not guaranteed, and the model’s $7.6MM projection does seem out of reach either.

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