Red Sox Rumors

AL East Notes: Holliday, Gil, Red Sox

By Nick Deeds | March 23, 2024 at 10:44pm CDT

The Orioles shocked the baseball world yesterday by reassigning top prospect Jackson Holliday to minor league camp, effectively ending his bid to make the Opening Day roster. The consensus #1 prospect in the entire sport, Holliday has taken the minors by storm since being selected first overall in the 2022 draft. After hitting .297/.489/.422 in 20 games down the stretch the year he was drafted between rookie ball and Single-A, Holliday tore through the minors in 2023 to advance all the way to the Triple-A level before the end of his first full season as a pro. In 125 games last year, Holliday slashed .323/.442/.499, including a strong .338/.421/.507 showing in 36 games at the Double-A level. The youngster continued to tear the cover off the ball this spring as well, slashing .311/.354/.600 across 15 games during camp.

GM Mike Elias today explained the club’s decision to start Holliday in the minor leagues after that incredible performance to reporters, including MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Among the reasons Elias listed for Holliday not breaking camp with the Orioles was his lack of experience against left-handed pitching. Holliday’s numbers against southpaws last year, while decent, were not at the same caliber as those he posted against right-handed pitching. While he crushed righties to a .331/.437/.551 slash line, his 124 trips to the plate against lefties last year saw him hit just .296/.387/.389. Elias also suggested that Holliday’s minimal experience at second base- where the club plans to play him in the majors- was another motivating factor behind Holliday’s demotion. The youngster has started primarily at shortstop throughout his professional career and has only 25 appearances at the keystone in 145 career minor league games.

Of course, those reasons for sending Holliday to the minors to open the year, however valid they may be, won’t outweigh the impact the move could have on Holliday’s future team control in the eyes of many. A player must be on the major league roster or injured list for at least 172 days of the 187-day season to earn a full year of service time. In other words, if Holliday spends at least 16 days in the minors this year, the Orioles could gain an additional year of team control over the up-and-coming star. Of course, if Holliday were to finish in the top two of AL Rookie of the Year voting this year, he would still be granted a full year of service time even if he spends less than 172 days in the majors this year. It’s also possible the club could reverse course in the early days of the season and call Holliday up in time for him to receive a full service year, in which case the club would receive a draft pick in the event that Holliday wins Rookie of the Year this season or finishes in the top 3 of AL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.

31 Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Looming This Week

By Steve Adams | March 20, 2024 at 5:21pm CDT

One of the provisions in that 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

The first uniform opt-out date on this year’s calendar falls Friday at 1pm CT. Any player can trigger his out clause at that point, and the team will subsequently be given a 48-hour window to either add him to the roster or release him. With many clubs around the league dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Angels: OF Jake Marisnick, LHP Drew Pomeranz

Marisnick, 33 this month, is a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder with a plus glove and questionable bat. He can hold his own against right-handed pitching (career .237/.293/.417, 93 wRC+) but is typically overmatched by righties (.223/.274/.365, 74 wRC+). He’s having a huge spring, but the Angels already have Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Aaron Hicks and Jo Adell on the 40-man roster.

The 35-year-old Pomeranz was a good starter from 2016-17 and a dominant reliever from 2019-21, but he didn’t pitch in 2022-23 due to arm injuries. He’s pitched 6 2/3 innings with the Angels this spring with middling results.

Blue Jays: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar, 1B Joey Votto

A poor season between the Mets and Angels last year set the stage for the 35-year-old Escobar to take a minor league deal. He’s long been a productive MLB hitter and even topped 30 homers back in 2019, but Escobar’s now in his mid-30s and struggling through an ugly spring while trying to win a spot in a crowded infield mix also featuring Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider.

Votto, 40, has been connected the Blue Jays seemingly forever due to his Canadian roots. He finally suited up for the Jays after agreeing to a minor league deal and homered in his first at-bat of camp. He’s had a lackluster showing at the plate in each of the past two MLB seasons, however.

Cubs: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, RHP Carl Edwards Jr., OF David Peralta

An underrated hitter for years in Miami, Cooper slashed .274/.350/.444 in nearly 1300 plate appearances from 2019-22 before a poorly timed down showing in 2023’s walk year. He’s hitting quite well in spring training, and the Cubs don’t have a proven option at first base — though they’re understandably high on 26-year-old trade acquisition Michael Busch.

Edwards had a nice 2022 season with the Nats and posted a solid ERA in 2023 but did so with dismal K-BB numbers. He’s competing for a spot in an uncharacteristically crowded Cubs bullpen and could be squeezed out. The 32-year-old pitched for the Cubs from 2015-19, so Chicago brass knows him well. From 2022-23 in D.C., he posted a 3.07 ERA but a middling 20% strikeout rate against a 10.5% walk rate.

Peralta, 36, has a trio of hits and a walk in ten plate appearances this spring. He was an above-average hitter with the D-backs every season from 2017-20 but has been less consistent of late. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s long had glaring platoon splits and is limited to the outfield corners.

Diamondbacks: SS Elvis Andrus

Andrus is 35 but can still pick it at shortstop or second base. His once above-average speed has faded to the 30th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, but his range at short remains excellent. Andrus hit .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) for the White Sox in 2023 and only has one year of above-average offense (2022) in the past six seasons.

Guardians: RHP Carlos Carrasco

Old friend Cookie Carrasco is fighting for the fifth spot in the Guardians’ rotation, and news of Gavin Williams’ season-opening stint on the injured list could further open the door for the 36-year-old (37 on Thursday) to make the team. Carrasco was torched for a 6.80 ERA with the 2023 Mets. He allowed 1.80 homers per nine frames through 90 innings, with alarming batted-ball metrics (91.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 10.7% barrel rate). He was a solid mid-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he tossed 152 innings of 3.97 ERA ball with sharp strikeout and walk rates.

Marlins: C Curt Casali

The veteran Casali has batted .201/.311/.315 over the past three big league seasons — a 78 wRC+ in 503 plate appearances. The 35-year-old is off to a rough start in camp and is a long shot to unseat defensive-minded Nick Fortes or Christian Bethancourt, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Mets: 1B/DH Ji Man Choi

From 2017-22, Choi hit .254/.363/.465 (130 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. He walked at a 14.4% clip when holding the platoon advantage and fanned at a higher-than-average but still-manageable 24.1% rate. Lefties have always had Choi’s number, however, and his overall production cratered in 2023 while he dealt with Achilles and ribcage injuries. He’s fighting for a bench spot in New York alongside DJ Stewart and others.

Nationals: RHP Matt Barnes, OF Eddie Rosario, OF Jesse Winker

Barnes was an All-Star closer with the Red Sox in 2021 and briefly one of the game’s most dominant relievers, fanning more than 40% of his opponents for the bulk of that season. He wore down beginning in August and hasn’t been the same since a hip injury. Barnes’ velocity and strikeouts were way down in 2023 before he underwent season-ending surgery. He should have a good chance to win a spot in a Nationals bullpen that has little established talent.

Rosario and Winker are both left-handed-hitting outfielders who are best deployed in left field — with Winker having a particularly shaky defensive reputation. Winker is the younger of the two at 30 years old (to Rosario’s 32). Winker was quietly one of the most productive hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching for much of his time in Cincinnati, but knee and neck surgery in October 2022 look to have taken their toll on him. Rosario was the far more productive hitter in 2023. There may not be room for both veterans on the Washington roster. Winker has been in camp longer and been more productive in their small samples.

Orioles: 2B Kolten Wong

The Orioles seem to bring in a veteran infielder coming off a down season almost every year. It’s Wong’s turn in 2023. The 33-year-old was one of the game’s worst hitters in ’23, slashing just .183/.256/.263 in 250 plate appearances between the Mariners and Dodgers. That was beyond out of character for Wong, who’d been an average or better hitter in five of the past six seasons. If the O’s don’t want to rush Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, Wong could win a spot on the roster — but he hasn’t hit that well in camp so far.

Pirates: RHP Chase Anderson

It’s been five years since Anderson’s last solid season in a big league rotation, but the well-liked veteran continues to get work each season. From 2020-23, he’s pitched to a 6.19 ERA in 192 MLB frames — including a 5.42 mark in 86 1/3 innings last year (mostly with the Rockies). Anderson doesn’t miss many bats, but he has good command and is having a nice spring with the Pirates. He’s competing with Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Domingo German and others for one of two generally open rotation spots in Pittsburgh.

Rangers: INF Matt Duffy, RHP Shane Greene, RHP Jose Urena

A contact-oriented hitter who can play all over the infield, the 33-year-old Duffy faces an uphill battle with Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue all on the 40-man roster ahead of him. Nathaniel Lowe will open the season on the injured list, but that’ll likely work to Jared Walsh’s benefit more than Duffy.

Greene, 35, is a former All-Star closer/setup man who peaked with the Tigers and Braves from 2017-20. He’s thrown just three innings in each of the past two MLB seasons but also turned in strong numbers with the Cubs in Triple-A last year.

The 32-year-old Urena made five dismal starts for the Rockies early in the 2023 season and five solid ones for the White Sox late in the season. He also pitched well for Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate. A solid arm for the Marlins in 2017-18, Urena has a 5.50 ERA in 350 1/3 MLB frames dating back to 2019. He’s had a nice spring and could be a depth piece for an injury-plagued Rangers rotation.

Rays: RHP Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi signed last week and will look to get back on track after a shoulder injury cost him the 2023 season. With the exception of an injury-wrecked 2020 season, he’s been a dependable five-inning starter dating back to 2014 (3.98 ERA in 1216 innings). The Rays’ pitching staff is dealing with plenty of injuries, and Odorizzi should be an option for the Rays early in the season.

Red Sox: 1B C.J. Cron, RHP Michael Fulmer, C Roberto Perez, LHP Joely Rodriguez

Cron has four seasons of 25-plus homers under his belt and was consistently an above-average hitter from 2014-22. Injuries tanked his 2023 season, but he has a strong track record of hitting for power — with largely even platoon splits. He’d make a nice right-handed complement to Triston Casas and/or Masataka Yoshida at first base and designated hitter, providing some insurance against an injury to either.

Perez is an all-glove backup who’s never hit much outside the juiced ball season in 2019, when he popped 24 of his 55 career homers. The Sox figure to go with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate, making him a long shot to land a roster spot.

Rodriguez signed a big league deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2023 season but only pitched 11 innings due to injury. He’s having a decent spring training — two runs on nine hits and three walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings — and has a good chance to win a spot in a patchwork Red Sox bullpen. If not, his ability to miss bats and pile up grounders would likely draw interest elsewhere.

Fulmer won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing surgery last summer. His minor league deal is a two-year contract that stretches into 2025. The two sides knew this going into the arrangement and there’s no reason to expect he’ll opt out.

Royals: RHP Tyler Duffey

Duffey was a mainstay in the division-rival Twins’ bullpen and was a high-end setup option at his peak in 2019-21, posting a 2.89 ERA across 144 frames while fanning 29.8% of his opponents. His results slipped in 2022 as he lost some life on his fastball, and he pitched just two MLB frames with the Cubs in 2023. Duffey recently had a procedure to remove a cancerous mole from his shoulder that understandably halted his baseball activity for a bit. He’s hopeful he’ll pitch again this spring, and while the larger takeaway is relief that the melanoma was discovered and quickly treated, his track record could also give him a shot to crack the Royals’ bullpen early in the season.

White Sox: RHP Jesse Chavez, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Dominic Leone, 3B/1B Mike Moustakas, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Bryan Shaw

Chavez, 40, has been excellent with the Braves in each of the past three seasons but struggled in stints with the Cubs and Angels. He’s having a tough spring with the White Sox but carries a 2.81 ERA in his past 137 2/3 MLB frames, spanning the 2021-23 seasons.

Keller has spent his entire big league career with the Royals but saw his time in Kansas City come to a rough ending. After a three-year run as a solid starter, Keller struggled in three subsequent seasons, culminating in an IL stint for symptoms indicative of thoracic outlet syndrome. He hasn’t pitched in an official spring game for the White Sox.

Leone struggled late in the 2023 season but has a cumulative 3.38 ERA in 157 innings over the past three seasons. He’s having a solid spring training, has late-inning experience, and seems like a decent bet to win a spot in a White Sox bullpen that’s been completely torn down since last summer.

Moustakas has turned in three straight below-average seasons at the plate and is struggling again with the White Sox in camp (.167/.268/.278 in 41 plate appearances). The Sox have Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn at the corners, plus Gavin Sheets as a lefty-swinging first base option (and corner outfielder) off the bench. Moose seems like a long shot to make the club.

Pillar would give the Sox a right-handed complement to lefty-hitting corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Dominic Fletcher. He’s 35 and no longer the plus-plus defensive center fielder he once was but could give them some insurance for Luis Robert Jr. in center as well. He hit .228/.248/.416 with nine homers in 206 plate appearances for the Braves last year.

Shaw pitched 45 2/3 innings for the Sox last year and delivered a respectable 4.14 ERA in that time. His production has tailed off substantially since his days as a consistent setup presence in the Cleveland bullpen — evidenced by a 5.07 ERA over his past six seasons. He’s been tagged for a dozen earned runs in 7 1/3 spring frames but does have 10 strikeouts.

Red Sox’ Chris Murphy Diagnosed With Ligament Damage In Elbow

By Steve Adams | March 19, 2024 at 11:50am CDT

11:50am: The Red Sox fear a “high grade tear” in Murphy’s ulnar collateral ligament, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. He’s receiving additional testing and opinions.

8:51am: Red Sox left-hander Chris Murphy underwent an MRI yesterday after experiencing recent elbow discomfort, and that imaging revealed ligament damage in his pitching elbow, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The Red Sox haven’t yet determined whether surgery will be the next step, though that’s the typical outcome for injuries of this nature. A treatment plan will be finalized in the coming days, per Speier.

The 25-year-old Murphy was slated to enter the season as one of the Sox’ top depth options in the rotation. He made his big league debut last season, tossing 47 2/3 frames with an unsightly 4.91 ERA but much better secondary marks. Murphy fanned a solid 23.1% of his opponents against an 8% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 44.7% clip. All of those stats were right in line with or even slightly better than the league average. Metrics like FIP (3.70) and SIERA (3.88) painted a much more favorable picture of the rookie’s work than his base earned run average.

Boston is set to open the season with Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford in a rotation that’s already lost top offseason signee Lucas Giolito for the season. Murphy, fellow lefty Brandon Walter and right-hander Cooper Criswell are all on the 40-man roster and were expected to be among the first names up should further injuries compromise the projected rotation. While it’s not yet clear he’ll miss the season, Murphy will at the very least no longer be an option in the early portion of the season.

Whether the injuries to Giolito and Murphy prompt the Red Sox to look for additional depth in the rotation remains to be seen, but it’s a rough development for any club to lose its No. 1 and No. 6 or 7 starters before the season even gets underway. The Sox have long been connected to lingering free agent lefty Jordan Montgomery, and others still on the market include Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. There’ll also surely be some names returning to the market in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams are informed that they’ve not made the cut with their current organization.

If Murphy ultimately requires surgery, he’ll be eligible to spend the season on the major league 60-day injured list, as he suffered the injury while in big league camp. He’d accrue a full year of service time and pay while undergoing surgery and rehabbing. He currently has just 81 days of MLB service time, giving the Sox six full seasons of control over him. Murphy won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2026 season and isn’t on track for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Grissom, Winckowski, Rotation, Booser

By Leo Morgenstern | March 17, 2024 at 2:31pm CDT

Vaughn Grissom was already questionable for Opening Day, but Alex Cora offered an update this morning on the timeline for his second baseman’s return. “We’re talking mid-April probably, [or] late April,” the Red Sox manager told members of the media, including Ian Browne of MLB.com. Grissom has not yet appeared in a Grapefruit League game; he has been nursing a groin strain all spring.

Boston traded for Grissom in December, sending Chris Sale (and $17MM) to Atlanta to complete the exchange. The Red Sox were counting on the 23-year-old to be their everyday second baseman in 2024. Barring a significant setback, he can still fill that role, and if he returns in mid-April, he might only miss 15-20 games.

When news of Grissom’s injury first broke, Cora told Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe that Enmanuel Valdez would fill in at second base. Valdez started 44 games at the keystone for the Red Sox last season. He slashed a perfectly respectable .266/.311/.453 in 149 plate appearances, with eight doubles and six home runs. However, he took nearly 90% of his plate appearances with the platoon advantage and went 2-for-14 against left-handed pitching. Thus, Pablo Reyes is likely to grab some starts at second with a southpaw on the mound.

In pitching news from Red Sox camp, Cora told reporters (including Sean McAdam of MassLive) that Josh Winckowski is no longer in the running for the Opening Day rotation, and he will likely move to the bullpen to begin the season. As Browne points out, that leaves Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Cooper Criswell competing for the final two jobs on Boston’s starting staff. Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and Kutter Crawford will hold down the top three spots.

Winckowski pitched well out of the bullpen last season, posting a 2.88 ERA in 84 1/3 innings of work. His 3.84 SIERA and 3.82 xERA were more good than great, but there is no denying he was an effective reliever, especially against left-handed opponents. The same cannot be said for his time as a starting pitcher the year before. Over 70 1/3 innings, Winckowski pitched to a 5.89 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and 4.82 SIERA, striking out a mere 44 batters while walking 27. Nonetheless, the 25-year-old told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he still considers himself a starting pitcher.

While Cora suggested Winckowski would likely fill a multi-inning role at the MLB level, he didn’t completely shut down the possibility that the righty could begin the season as a starter at Triple-A (per McAdam). “We still have got decisions to make,” said the skipper. “We’ll transition him now to the bullpen… and we’ll make decisions after that.”

Out of Houck, Whitlock, and Criswell, a trio of tall, 27-year-old right-handers, it seems like the former two have the edge over the latter. Houck and Whitlock have significantly more big league experience, and both were serviceable out of the rotation for Boston in 2023. Houck has a career 3.86 ERA in 252 innings, while Whitlock has a career 3.51 in 223 1/3 frames. Criswell has pitched well this spring, but it would be hard to argue he has done enough to edge out either of his more proven teammates.

Turning back to the bullpen, Cora mentioned an interesting name to Christopher Smith of MassLive: Cam Booser. Booser will turn 32 in May. He has spent time in the Twins, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox organizationx. He has never been selected to a 40-man roster, let alone pitched in the major leagues. Yet Booser was the first name the manager mentioned, pointing out his upper-90s fastball velocity and the way he has landed “offspeed pitches for strikes.”

That said, Cora was also clear to emphasize the value of experience. Brennan Bernardino, who already has a spot on the 40-man roster, made 55 appearances last year with a 3.20 ERA. Joely Rodríguez, a non-roster invitee, has pitched in 168 games over six big league seasons. Chris Murphy, another 40-man arm, found moderate success as a multi-inning reliever last season, tossing 47 2/3 frames over 20 appearances with the Red Sox. Cora brought up all three of their names in the same discussion, and it’s hard to imagine Booser beating out any of them for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Still, it’s becoming clear that Booser is a name to keep an eye on this season. He has given up just two runs in eight innings this spring, striking out eight and walking none.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis

By Darragh McDonald | March 13, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Injuries to pitchers such as Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox and the potential ripple effects (1:45)
Red Sox sign Brayan Bello to an extension (7:10)
Dodgers moving Mookie Betts to shortstop (10:40)
Giants release J.D. Davis (16:10)
Noelvi Marté of the Reds suspended for PEDs (22:50)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

Rob Refsnyder Suffers Fractured Toe

By Darragh McDonald | March 13, 2024 at 3:20pm CDT

Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder was hit by a pitch on his foot during yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest. He told reporters after the game that he had a “crack” in his pinky toe, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. Today, the club confirmed to reporters that Refsnyder has a fractured left pinky toe, with Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe among those to relay the news.

The club hasn’t provided a timeline for the recovery, but it seems certain that Refsnyder will begin the season on the injured list with Opening Day now just two weeks away. All injuries are different, but just for a point of reference, Joe Musgrove suffered a toe fracture in late February last year and returned to the club almost two months later in late April. Sean McAdam of MassLive estimates the injury could cost Refsnyder four to six weeks.

Refsnyder wasn’t going to be an everyday player for the Sox but was likely to be in the short side of a platoon. The righty swinger has drawn walks in 13.8% of his plate appearances against southpaws in his career, helping him produce a line of .270/.376/.380 and a 111 wRC+. That’s compared to an 8.4% walk rate, .219/.296/.308 batting line and 67 wRC+ against righties.

His lefty-mashing has been even more pronounced in recent seasons. He earned a free pass in 15.9% of his trips to the plate against lefties last year, compared to a 15.2% strikeout rate, and slashed .308/.428/.400 for a 133 wRC+.

The Sox have a number of left-handed hitters in their outfield and designated hitter rotation, including Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida and Wilyer Abreu. Righties Tyler O’Neill and Ceddanne Rafaela are in the mix as well but Refsnyder would have factored in on occasion when there was a tough southpaw on the mound. That won’t be option for manager Álex Cora early in the schedule as Refsnyder will be working his way back from this injury.

In the meantime, that could open up a bench role for someone else. C.J. Cron is in camp as a non-roster invitee while Bobby Dalbec is one the 40-man roster, but with one option year remaining. It was reported last month that the Sox were interested in adding a righty-swinging outfielder to help pair with Duran, Yoshida and Abreu. They later added Cron but he isn’t an option on the grass.

Given the club was already interested in a righty-swinging outfielder and Refsnyder is now set to miss some time, perhaps they will have a bit of increased urgency to get something done with a free agent before the season starts. Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall are still available, while free agent Robbie Grossman is a switch hitter who is better against southpaws.

Lucas Giolito Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure

By Darragh McDonald | March 13, 2024 at 8:50am CDT

March 13: The Red Sox announced this morning that Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow. That comes with a shorter recovery timetable than a full Tommy John surgery and will give the right-hander a chance to pitch the entire 2025 season if things go smoothly in his rehab. He’ll likely still miss the entire 2024 campaign, however.

March 11: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito will undergo surgery on his right elbow tomorrow afternoon, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Sean McAdam of MassLive. It’s still unknown whether he will require a full Tommy John surgery or a brace procedure, but he’s ticketed for an extended absence either way.

It was reported last week that Giolito has a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm as well as a strain of his flexor tendon. A decision had not yet been made on the path forward, with the club sending Giolito for a second opinion. After gathering further information, it now seems that it will be necessary for him to go under the knife. Giolito previously underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2012.

It seems that some of the details of the procedure will be worked out on the operating table, as the medical team will assess the level of damage in his elbow once they get in there and then decide on the best path forward. Either way, Giolito seems slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. A brace procedure is a relatively new alternative to Tommy John that can come with shorter recovery times, but even those rehab windows are in the ballpark of a year.

It’s a devastating blow for both Giolito and the Red Sox. The righty posted excellent results from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox, with a 3.47 earned run average in that time. He struggled in 2022, with his ERA bumping to 4.90, but seemed to be bouncing back in the first half of last year.

He had a 3.79 ERA through 21 starts as he approached the open market and seemed to be trending towards being one of the top free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. He was traded to the Angels but then saw his performance dip again. He had a 6.89 ERA in six starts for the Halos as that club fell out of contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians put in a claim but then Giolito had a 7.04 ERA in six starts for that club.

As recently as last summer, he seemed to be trending towards a nine-figure mega deal but instead limped into free agency with little momentum behind him. He settled for a two-year, “prove it” deal with the Red Sox, netting a guarantee of $38.5MM. He also secured an opt-out in that deal so that he could return to free agency if he posted better results in 2024.

That now won’t happen and Giolito will stay on Boston’s books through 2025. The club came into this winter looking to bolster their rotation but ended up being fairly inactive in that department. They did sign Giolito but also flipped Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, making it a sort of neutral set of moves for the rotation, depending on how the Sale/Giolito swapped was viewed.

With Giolito now set for an extended absence, the rotation is now the same as last year but without Sale. It’s possible that steps forward from their incumbent options of Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford or Garrett Whitlock could make that up somewhat, but it’s nonetheless unideal for the club’s big offseason splash to miss the entire season.

The club has been operating with a bit less spending capacity than in the past. Club president Sam Kennedy said last month that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has payroll “parameters” that he is operating under. RosterResource pegs this year’s payroll at $180MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows the club has been as high as $236MM in the past. It appears the club doesn’t look favorably on its chances of competing in a competitive American League East and isn’t willing to spend gobs of money to chance a chance at contention that may be narrow.

Free agency still features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Sox have been frequently connected to the latter but without anything seeming close, at least partially due to those apparent budgetary concerns. If the club has interest in a more affordable option for eating some innings, guys like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard remain unsigned.

For Giolito, he will be focused on his rehab for the foreseeable future. He will turn 30 years old in July and will turn 31 before his deal with the Sox expires and he returns to the open market after 2025.

East Notes: Casas, Cabrera, Marsh

By Nick Deeds | March 10, 2024 at 10:23pm CDT

The Red Sox recently signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM extension that extends their team control over the youngster by two years. That deal isn’t the only possible extension for a young potential cornerstone that Boston has pursued this winter, however, as first baseman Triston Casas confirmed to reporters that he and the Red Sox have discussed a possible extension as well. At the time, Casas indicated that while he would love to spend his entire career in Boston, the club had yet to present him with anything “enticing” to that point. In the wake of Bello’s extension, Casas recently discussed his own extension negotiations with the Red Sox, as relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

In his comments, Casas reiterating that he hopes to play in Boston for “the rest of [his] career” while also providing an update on the discussions he’s had with Red Sox brass. Per Casas, the sides are still talking but there’s been “no numerical values” discussed to this point and that “nothing has really accelerated” to this point. Even as the 24-year-old makes clear he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston, it doesn’t seem as though he feels much urgency to get a deal done anytime soon.

“I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas said, as relayed by Speier. “…So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”

Although Casas claims to have not yet performed at a level that would warrant the extension he’s looking for, he certainly turned in a strong performance in his first full big league season last year. In 132 games with the Red Sox, Casas slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 502 trips to the plate. That strong overall performance was bolstered by a torrid second half that saw Casas slash an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 54 games with a 175 wRC+ that was the fifth-best figure among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances down the stretch, bested by only Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts. If the sides are unable to come to an agreement this spring, a 2024 campaign that even comes close to resembling his second half last year would surely improve Casas’s earning power considerably.

More from MLB’s East divisions…

Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera was removed from his start against the Cardinals today before throwing a pitch, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald noting that Cabrera experienced a bout of tightness in his right shoulder while warming up for the game. McPherson adds that Cabrera’s removal from the game was precautionary, per Miami, and that Cabrera told reporters a few hours after being removed from the game that he was “already starting to feel better.” While both club and player are indicating that the issue isn’t a particularly severe issue, it’s worth noting that Cabrera was sidelined by a shoulder impingement in June of last year and missed a month of action. Should Cabrera manage to avoid a trip to the injured list to open the season, he figures to Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez in the rotation. Southpaws A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Weathers figure to compete for the final two spots in the club’s rotation, though Braxton Garrett figures to join the rotation once he’s recovered from his own shoulder woes.
Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has yet to appear in a game this spring while rehabbing from arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in early February. While the initial timeline for his return to action was three-to-four weeks following the surgery, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer indicates that Marsh is not quite ready to return to game action at this point. Coffey adds that club manager Rob Thomson recently indicated that Marsh is “on track” with regards to his rehab and could get into a Grapefruit League game by the end of the week. Marsh, 26, slashed a strong .277/.372/.458 in 133 games for the Phillies last year and figures to be a regular fixture in the club’s outfield mix this season alongside Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas.

Injury Notes: Rangers, Tigers, Treinen, Martin

By Nick Deeds | March 9, 2024 at 6:15pm CDT

Orthopedic surgeon and Rangers head physician Dr. Keith Meister recently spoke to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic to discuss the increasing number of injuries around the game, which he suggests could be due to the prevalence of sweepers and hard changeups in today’s game. Meister suggested to Rosenthal and Sarris that “spin is worse” than even velocity in terms of its impact on pitcher health, as both of the aforementioned pitches put additional stress on the pitcher’s arm. Rosenthal and Sarris went on to note that Meister shared his findings on the matter with league executives for a study focused on injury prevention, with the league intending to create a task force on the matter once the study is complete.

It seems as though players remain skeptical of the idea that certain breaking balls are creating an injury problem in the league, with Chris McCosky of The Detroit News noting that several Tigers pitchers seemed to hold reservations regarding the concept. Southpaw Tarik Skubal told McCosky that he believes velocity to have “more of a correlation” with injury than specific pitches, while adding that he doesn’t believe “any one thing” has led to the increase in pitcher injuries in recent years. One of the game’s most promising young lefties, Skubal was limited to just 36 starts across the past two seasons by flexor-tendon surgery. For their part, Rosenthal and Sarris note in their own article that many pitchers in the big leagues view injuries as an “occupational hazard” and are unbothered by the spiking injury rates around the game.

Those hurlers aren’t alone in uncertainty regarding Meister’s assertion, with Rosenthal and Sarris pointing out that while Meister suggests that increased grip strength is being used to improve spin rates at the expense of pitcher health, one pitching coach noted that “research is divided” on the correlation between grip strength and spin rates. Regardless of its cause, there’s no doubt that pitchers have been facing more injuries in recent years. Rosenthal and Sarris note that, per Meister, he operated upon around 230 elbow ligaments in 2023 and that this year is “way ahead” of that same pace. Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, and Justin Verlander are among the pitchers who have dealt with elbow and shoulder issues this spring, while the likes of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Shane McClanahan, Brandon Woodruff and Shohei Ohtani are among the many top pitchers who will be sidelined for at least the first half of the 2024 campaign (if not longer) after undergoing surgery last year.

More injury-related notes from around the league…

Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen was struck by a comebacker during today’s spring training game against Texas, with The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya among those to note that the Dodgers diagnosed the issue as a right rib contusion following Treinen’s departure from the game. Treinen is set to undergo both x-rays and a CT scan in the wake of the incident, with manager Dave Roberts indicating to reporters (including Ardaya) that the club will have more information on the right-hander’s status tomorrow. Treinen, 36 in June, has long been among the most talented relievers in the game but has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, pitching just five innings since the end of the 2021 season. Should he remain healthy enough to stay on the mound, he figures to be a key piece of the relief mix in L.A. alongside the likes of Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol.
Red Sox righty Chris Martin was pulled from a live batting practice session earlier today after a pair of warm-up pitches, with Chris Cotillo of MassLive indicating that, per manager Alex Cora, Martin was suffering from groin tightness. Cora added that the issue had “nothing” to do with Martin’s arm and that the club figures to re-evaluate Martin in the coming days. The soon-to-be 37-year-old hurler is coming off a dominant season on the mound for Boston last year where he posted a 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances. Martin has found his name in the rumor mill this winter as a potential trade candidate, and while it’s possible that the veteran’s groin issue could be a cause of concern for potential suitors, he appears less likely to be moved following the deal that sent fellow set-up option John Schreiber to the Royals and instead seems likely to join fellow veteran trade candidate Kenley Jansen at the back of the Red Sox bullpen to open the year.

Latest On Jordan Montgomery, Red Sox

By Darragh McDonald | March 8, 2024 at 6:20pm CDT

The Red Sox have been continually connected to free agent Jordan Montgomery as he has remained unsigned throughout the offseason, but without a deal seeming close to fruition. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that the two sides have stayed in contact but that the lefty is looking for a seven-year deal that the club is unwilling to give.

There are arguments for and against the Red Sox making a huge splash to improve the rotation at this point. From the start of the offseason, upgrading the starting staff has been a priority but the club hasn’t done it. They traded away Chris Sale and then signed Lucas Giolito, which amounted to something close to a lateral move, depending how one feels about those two pitchers. But it was recently reported that Giolito has a partial tear of his UCL and a flexor strain. The next steps still aren’t known but season-ending surgery is a possibility.

If Giolito is out of commission, then the Sox are essentially going into the season with the same rotation as last year but without Sale. Nick Pivetta struggled enough last year to get bumped to the bullpen, though he did finish the year strong. Brayan Bello had a decent year and the club clearly believes in him, since they just signed him to an extension, but he seemed to run out of gas late in the year and the low strikeout rate is still a bit of a concern. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock are talented arms to fill out the rest of the staff but those three are still not fully established as starters, with none of that trio having hit 130 innings in a big league season. Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man as depth but no one in that group has 50 big league innings pitched yet.

Adding someone like Montgomery would be a clear upgrade, both this year and in the future. He has thrown 524 1/3 innings over the past three seasons with a 3.48 earned run average. He tossed another 31 frames in last year’s postseason with a 2.90 ERA, forming a key part of the Rangers’ World Series championship club. Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024, so the need for rotation help should be even greater a year from now.

But the flip side of the argument is that the Sox may want to wait to put another big contract on their books. They are considered by many observers to be the weakest club in the American League East. The club’s lack of activity this offseason suggests they may view things similarly. Perhaps they don’t want to commit a huge pile of money to Montgomery when they don’t have faith in their current squad.

When a club signs a player to a long-term deal, they generally expect to recoup the most value in the early years when the player is still relatively close to their prime, and clubs are also aware that the later years might be a bit more painful. If the Sox don’t think they have a path to contention right now, perhaps they don’t have much desire to get a deal done with the 31-year-old Montgomery.

Instead, they could use 2024 as a year to evaluate younger players like Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Teel, Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and others. They could trade impending free agents like Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Tyler O’Neill this year to further stock up on young talent, then decide on the best time to make a big strike in the future. They could bolster the rotation in the short-term by signing someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi.

RosterResource currently lists their competitive balance tax figure as $211MM, which is $26MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. They could fit in a big deal for someone like Montgomery without going over the line but it would be fairly close. Next year’s CBT number, on the other hand, is only at $133MM. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players but the appetite for a giving out a big contract might be higher going forward than it is now.

For Montgomery, the fact that he is still unsigned as we approach the middle of March suggests that no club has met his asking price yet. It’s understandable that he is looking to maximize his guarantee here this winter, as he is coming off a great season and just helped the Rangers win the World Series.

This winter’s market has forced some other free agents to pivot to short-term deals, most notably Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Those two, like Montgomery and Blake Snell, are all represented by the Boras Corporation. Boras clients have generally had a stronger willingness to wait out the market than players with other agencies. But Bellinger and Chapman didn’t find the long-term deals they were seeking and pivoted to shorter pacts with opt-outs that will allow them to return to free agency next winter or the one after that. Reporting has suggested Snell is willing to do the same.

Montgomery may be less inclined to do so, however, since he didn’t receive a qualifying offer at the start of this offseason. Players traded midseason are ineligible to receive a QO and Montgomery was flipped from the Cardinals to the Rangers prior to the deadline. That means he can currently be signed without the club forfeiting any draft picks or international bonus pool money. If he were to pivot to a short-term deal with opt-outs, he would be highly likely to receive a QO whenever he decided to return to the open market, which would put a damper on his earning power at that point. He would also obviously be older and therefore less likely to find a club willing to make a long-term commitment to him.

It’s theoretically possible that he could sign a short-term deal and then be traded at midseason again, though he wouldn’t be able to control that. Clubs are also fairly unwilling to acquire such contracts at the deadline, as they would be taking on the downside of being committed to the player for many years if they got hurt and decided not to trigger their opt-out.

With Montgomery seemingly sticking to his seven-year ask, it suggests he and his reps are perhaps aware that the he is a less viable fit for the pivot to a short-term pact than Bellinger, Chapman or Snell. But he hasn’t found the right deal yet and time will tell if he does end up getting it.

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