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Adam Ottavino, Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deal

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Adam Ottavino and the Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract, as first reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Unsurprisingly, the deal comes with an invitation to big league spring training. Indeed, according to Nick O’Malley and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the veteran reliever has already reported to camp. He will earn a $2MM salary in 2025 if he makes the MLB roster. Conversely, if Ottavino fails to make the 40-man roster out of camp, he will have the freedom to opt out of his contract and return to free agency (per O’Malley and Cotillo). This is Ottavino’s second stint in the Red Sox organization.

Ottavino, 39, made his MLB debut as a starter for the Cardinals in 2010. However, the Rockies converted him to a relief role after claiming him on waivers in 2012, and the right-hander has been one of the most prolific relievers in the game ever since. Over the past 13 seasons with the Rockies (2012-18), Yankees (2019-20), Red Sox (2021), and Mets (2022-24), Ottavino has pitched 720 2/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA. In that time, he ranks fifth among all relievers in appearances and third in innings pitched. He has remained durable into his late thirties, making at least 60 appearances in each of the past four years. Even more impressive, he has not been on the injured list since 2018.

With all that in mind, it’s easy to see why an MLB team would still be interested in Ottavino, despite his advanced age. His 4.34 ERA this past season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he is only one year removed from a 3.21 ERA season in 2023 and only two years removed from producing an incredible 2.06 ERA in 2022. Moreover, his underlying numbers in 2024 suggest he can still be a back-end bullpen weapon. He pitched to a 3.19 xERA and 3.27 SIERA thanks to a deep arsenal of pitches that helped him thrive as both a strikeout arm and a weak contact artist; his strikeout rate and hard-hit rate both ranked above the 80th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

On the flip side, it’s worth pointing out that Ottavino struggled with his control down the stretch last season. While his 3.86 ERA in August and September was actually lower than his 4.54 ERA over the first four months of the season, his walk rate shot up from 7.6% to 13.5% over the final two months of the year. Even worse, his strikeout rate dropped from 29.8% from April to July to 25.7% in August and September. That could explain why the Mets did not use him at all in the NL Wild Card Series or the NLDS, and why they left him off of their NLCS roster entirely. It might also explain why the veteran was forced to sign a non-guaranteed contract this winter.

Still, with a strong spring, Ottavino has a good chance to earn a job in Boston’s bullpen. Aside from free agent signing Aroldis Chapman and 2024 breakout arm Justin Slaten, the Red Sox have plenty of uncertainty in their arm barn. Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock are coming off of major injuries, while buy-low free agent signing Justin Wilson has not been an effective bullpen arm for several years (5.34 ERA from 2021-24). Meanwhile, names like Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, and Luis Guerrero are hardly locks to make the Opening Day roster. After signing Wilson and Chapman, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that upgrading the bullpen remained a priority. If Ottavino continues to pitch the way he has for most of his career, he should certainly qualify as an upgrade for Boston’s ’pen.

Kennedy: Red Sox Expect To Pay CBT In 2025

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Red Sox president Sam Kennedy spoke to members of the media today, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He confirmed that the club is over the line when it comes to the competitive balance tax and expects to stay there, with room to possibly make additions.

Public estimates of the club’s CBT number have them right around the line, which will be $241MM this year. RosterResource has them at $241.6MM while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them at $240.4MM. Those calculations are unofficial and it seems that Boston’s internal calculations have them over the line.

A club’s final CBT calculation isn’t made until the end of the year. That means there’s some wiggle room to make adjustments now or midseason. For example, the Blue Jays were projected to pay the tax in 2024 but fell out of contention and sold off various players prior to the deadline, which allowed them to narrowly limbo under the line.

For the Sox, they could consider something like that, as clubs often do when they are right around the border. For instance, Masataka Yoshida has been in plenty of trade rumors and has an $18MM CBT hit on his deal. The Sox wouldn’t find any club to take on the whole thing but could perhaps unload part of it if they wanted to avoid the tax. In the past five years, the Sox have only paid the tax once, going narrowly over the line in 2022.

However, it doesn’t seem as though the club is particularly worried about the tax this year. Kennedy said back in November that the club was hoping to be aggressive this winter, building a club that was capable of winning 90 to 95 games, even if that involved paying the tax. For much of the winter, they didn’t make a huge free agent splash but finally did so last week by signing Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120MM pact. The deferrals in that deal reportedly knock it down closer to $90MM in terms of present-day value, but that lower figure still reportedly added $31.7MM to the club’s CBT calculation for the year.

As the season progresses, it’s always possible that the club pivots at the deadline. As mentioned, that’s how things went for the Jays last year. But that’s clearly not how the Sox plan on things going this year. Assuming the club stays in contention through the end of July, they will be looking to make additions without worrying about ducking under the tax line. Those additions could come in the next few weeks, with several free agents still available, though the club could also keep some powder dry for deadline additions to address midseason injuries and/or underperformance.

Since the club hasn’t paid the tax in the past two years, they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. As such, they would have a 20% base tax rate for whatever they spend over the line. There’s also a 12% surcharge for going $20MM over and further surcharges if they eventually go $40MM or $60MM over the base.

It’s surely a refreshing uptick for Boston fans. Up until a few years ago, the Sox had spent many years as one of the top spenders in the league. They had a top five payroll in all but one year of the 2000-2020 period, winning four titles in that time. They dropped back to the middle of the pack more recently, with Cot’s having them 12th in the league in the past two seasons. They finished last in the American League East in 2022 and 2023, before finishing at .500 last year.

They haven’t climbed all the way back to their previous level, with RosterResource ranking their projected 2025 payroll as ninth in the majors. However, they’re only $11MM away from sixth place and it seems like there’s a good chance those standings will shift in the coming months.

Poll: What Position Will Alex Bregman Play In Boston?

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Over the weekend, the Red Sox formally introduced Alex Bregman as their latest star infield signing after signing him to a three-year deal last week. One notable wrinkle that emerged from Bregman’s introduction is where exactly his future on the infield dirt lies. While previous indications were that Bregman would play second base for the Red Sox if added to the roster, manager Alex Cora made clear that the club has not made a decision on how exactly its infield alignment will shake out when Opening Day arrives next month.

The uncertainty around Bregman’s future position stems primarily from the desire of incumbent third base star Rafael Devers to continue playing the field for the foreseeable future. Devers, still just 28, moving to DH this early into his career would be unusual for even a defensively-limited star player. Miguel Cabrera was still the Tigers’ starting third baseman during his age-30 season back in 2013. Aside from Devers’ personal desire to continue playing third, a move to DH for Devers would seemingly leave little room for Masataka Yoshida in the club’s plans, restricting him either to mostly bench duties, forcing him into the outfield on a regular basis, or pushing him off the roster entirely. From an offensive perspective, Yoshida is likely to be far more valuable to pencil into the lineup card than the relatively uninspiring second base options like Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton that the Red Sox used last year.

With that being said, Bregman is the reigning AL Gold Glove award winner at the hot corner and has just 32 innings of experience at the keystone to this point in his career. Hardware isn’t always the best metric to evaluate a player’s defense by, but the difference between Bregman and Devers is stark when looking at advanced metrics: Bregman sat in the 91st percentile among fielders for his work at third base last year in terms of Outs Above Average, while Devers was in the 8th percentile. Bregman made clear throughout his free agency that he was ready and willing to play second base if it was asked of him, and Red Sox brass have indicated confidence in his ability to play the position. Even so, it’s impossible to deny that the best version of the Red Sox defensively would surely involve Bregman at third base, Devers at DH, and a steady glove like Hamilton (who posted a +3 OAA at the keystone last year) at second.

It can be argued, then, that the decision boils down to a question of offense versus defense. Playing Bregman at second base allows the club to keep Yoshida in the lineup to open the season more easily, though that will cost the club by forcing an less than ideal defensive alignment. Meanwhile, inserting Hamilton and his 92 wRC+ from last season as the Opening Day second baseman and shifting Yoshida to the bench would leave the club with an undeniably weaker offense but would give the club a quality defensive unit with Bregman and Hamilton flanking Trevor Story on the infield dirt. Using this logic, a Boston club that ranked 11th in the majors with a 104 wRC+ last year even before bringing in Bregman but ranked sixth from the bottom in both OAA and Fangraphs’ defense metric might be better off prioritizing run prevention over run creation.

Other factors are at play as well, however. It’s hard to say from an external perspective exactly how the relationship between Devers and the Red Sox would be impacted by the club supplanting him at third base, but all indications are that the club’s incumbent star is adamant about his desire to remain at the hot corner. It’s also fair to note that Yoshida is expected to be available to play the outfield more frequently this year after he underwent shoulder surgery back in October. Once his shoulder has recovered enough for him to play on the grass, the club could theoretically start Jarren Duran in center field and Yoshida in left before benching Yoshida late in games to shift Duran to left field and put glove-first utility man Ceddanne Rafaela in center field for a stronger defensive outfield when the club holds a lead.

Perhaps the biggest variable in this situation, however, is Kristian Campbell. MLB.com’s #7 prospect in the sport had a clear pathway to everyday playing time as soon as Opening Day before Bregman was signed, but reporting since the Bregman deal has indicated that the Red Sox still want to give Campbell the opportunity to earn a spot on the everyday roster. Campbell has primarily played second base to this point in the minors and his presence on the club’s roster, in the event that he makes the team, could spur the Red Sox to pull the trigger on moving Devers to DH.

With that said, Campbell is a versatile defender who has outfield experience as well, making it at least plausible that the club could plug him into the lineup in left field with Duran in center and Rafaela either on the bench or at Triple-A should they wish to play Bregman at second and Devers at third. That would only be a temporary solution, however, as top prospect Roman Anthony is also knocking on the door of the majors and seems likely to be debut at some point in the first half. Anthony is a well-regarded defensive outfielder and figures to take over regular reps at one of the club’s outfield spots upon his debut, which would seemingly push Campbell back to the infield unless the club was willing to bench Wilyer Abreu in right field.

With so many complicated factors at play for the Red Sox this spring, where do MLBTR readers land on the issue? Should the club prioritize its defense and move Devers to DH, opening up the hot corner for Bregman and making it easier to fit their prospects into the lineup? Or would they be better off putting Bregman at second base, avoiding the risk of discontent from Devers and allowing Yoshida to remain a fixture of the club’s lineup more easily? Have your say in the poll below:

Red Sox Sign Trayce Thompson To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor league contract. The Wasserman client will join their big league camp for the remainder of spring training.

Thompson has appeared in parts of seven major league seasons and, in 1058 plate appearances, has batted .212/.300/.411. The former second-round pick and brother of NBA star Klay Thompson has suited up for the White Sox, Dodgers, A’s, Cubs and Padres over the years. He split the 2024 season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Cubs and Mets, hitting a combined .233/.315/.471 (98 wRC+) in 432 trips to the plate.

The 33-year-old Thompson (34 next month) comes to the Red Sox with at least 600 big league innings in all three outfield spots. His once-plus speed has dipped closer to average, but he gives them a potential right-handed bat to pair with a left-leaning outfield that includes Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida (though Yoshida will primarily serve as a designated hitter). Thompson, however, has reverse splits in his career and has generally handled right-handed opponents better than he’s handled lefties. That trend held up in Triple-A last season, when he hit .237/.314/.495 against fellow righties but only .218/.317/.391 versus lefties.

Boston’s outfield mix already includes defensive standout Ceddanne Rafaela and backup Rob Refsnyder, both of whom bat from the right side. Top prospects Roman Anthony (left-handed) and Kristian Campbell (right-handed) could force their way into the mix, too — as could prospect Jhostynxon Garcia who, unlike Anthony and Campbell, is already on the 40-man roster. Garcia bats from the right side of the dish as well.

Devers: “My Position Is Third Base”

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The Red Sox finalized their three-year deal with Alex Bregman over the weekend. While it’s generally expected that Bregman will move to second base in his new home, skipper Alex Cora was noncommittal about their infield on Saturday.

Rafael Devers’ camp has made clear all offseason that the Sox’s longtime third baseman has no interest in a position change. Devers forcefully stated as much when speaking to the Boston beat this morning. “No. I play third,” he said through an interpreter when asked about his willingness to move off the position (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). “It’s my decision … My position is third base. Whatever it is they want to do is what they want to do. But my position is third base.”

Cora again reiterated that the Red Sox haven’t made any decisions. “He’s going to work out as the third baseman. And we’re going to make decisions accordingly. Here, it’s not about Bregman or Devers or Cora,” the manager said. “It’s for the Boston Red Sox. Whatever decision we make is going to be for the benefit of the team.”

Interestingly, Cora acknowledged that the Red Sox promised Devers that he’d be their long-term third baseman at the time the sides agreed on a 10-year extension in January 2023. That agreement came under a previous front office regime, as then-chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was fired eight months later. Craig Breslow is now running baseball operations. Cora downplayed the significance of that promise as a result, saying it was under “different leadership. That was under Chaim” (relayed by Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). Of course, Cora was the manager at the time of the extension, so there hasn’t been a leadership change in the clubhouse.

Devers was asked whether he’d seek a trade if the Red Sox forced him to move off third base. He didn’t rule that out but said it hasn’t been a focus. “That’s a tough answer to give. I haven’t given it much thought. I’ve been here my entire career,” he said (via McCaffrey). “I haven’t asked myself that question. I’m open to listening. I’m not close to those conversations.”

The most straightforward solution is still to keep Devers at third base and move Bregman to second. That’d block the clearest path to playing time for top prospect Kristian Campbell, who combined for a .330/.439/.558 slash in an incredible first full minor league season. Campbell had a roughly even share of playing time at each of second base, shortstop and in center field. He also picked up a few starts at third base.

While Boston could have Campbell open the season in Triple-A Worcester, they should be able to find ways to get him into the lineup if they feel he’s ready for an MLB call. If the Sox preferred to keep him at one position as a rookie, second base was the obvious choice before the Bregman signing. Unless they force Devers’ hand by pushing him to DH, they’d need to use Campbell in more of a utility role (at least until someone gets injured).

Campbell is versatile enough to bounce around while still playing regularly. He could spell Trevor Story at shortstop while rotating through the outfield. He’s unlikely to be as good a defensive center fielder as Ceddanne Rafaela, but he’d bring a higher offensive ceiling. Campbell’s right-handed bat could complement the lefty-swinging corner outfield tandem of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, as well as lefty-hitting DH Masataka Yoshida. Duran will play almost every day regardless of the opposing pitchers’ handedness. The Sox could use Abreu and/or Yoshida in more of a platoon capacity.

There’d be a defensive tradeoff. Devers has graded as a below-average defender in essentially every season of his career. Defensive Runs Saved had him nine runs below par last year, while Statcast graded him at five runs below average. Bregman rated 5-6 runs above average by those metrics and is coming off his first Gold Glove win. Bregman shouldn’t have much issue moving to second base. He’s a good athlete who likely would have spent most of his career in the middle infield had he not broken into an Astros team that had Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Still, there’d be a stronger defensive alignment with Bregman at third and one of Campbell or David Hamilton at second base.

For the Sox, the question is whether that’s worth alienating a player they’ve viewed as one of the faces of the franchise. Devers is signed through age 36. His defensive grades aren’t likely to improve as he approaches his 30s. At some point, the Sox are likely to push him off the position. Story and Bregman are each signed for three more seasons. They can both opt out after this year, though that seems unlikely for Story and at least debatable for Bregman (who’d be leaving a $40MM average annual value on the table).

Even if they’re comfortable using Campbell in a utility role for a season, they’ll probably want an everyday infield position available for him and top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer by next year. This should be workable in the short term but could pose some interesting questions before long.

Padres Sign Nick Pivetta

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Feb. 17: Pivetta passed his physical and has reported to Padres camp. The team has formally announced his four-year contract.

Feb. 12: The Padres are reportedly in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year, $55MM deal. The CAA client receives a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s guaranteed $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM salaries over the following three seasons and can opt out after the contract after the second and third years. While the salary structure helps the Padres navigate short-term payroll constraints, the $13.75MM average annual value counts evenly against the team’s luxury tax calculation. The deal is pending a physical and has not been officially announced by the Padres, who have two openings on their 40-man roster.

Pivetta, who’ll celebrate his 32rd birthday on Friday, was the best unsigned starting pitcher. He had declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the beginning of the offseason. That was a bit of a surprising decision that presumably played a role in holding up his market into Spring Training. He finds a multi-year deal with a much greater overall guarantee than he would have received had he accepted the QO, though he’s taking a notable pay cut for the upcoming season in the process.

The 6’5″ righty debuted with the Phillies in 2017. He struggled for most of his four-year tenure in Philadelphia. A 2020 deadline trade sending him to Boston turned his career around. Pivetta has been a mid-rotation workhorse over the last four years. He ranks 23rd in MLB with 623 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He owns a cumulative 4.33 earned run average and has allowed an ERA between 4.04 and 4.56 in each season.

Pivetta was a fixture in Alex Cora’s rotation over his first two seasons in Boston. He remained in that role early in the ’23 campaign, but the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in the middle of May. Pivetta was sitting on a 6.30 ERA over his first eight starts of the season. He had a fantastic turnaround in a long relief capacity. Pivetta allowed 1.98 earned runs per nine with an exceptional 36.9% strikeout rate over his first 17 relief appearances. Boston gradually stretched him back out to a rotation workload as the season progressed, putting him back in the starting five entering last season.

A flexor strain in his elbow sent him to the injured list in early April. That was remarkably the first non-virus IL stint of his nearly seven-year MLB career. Pivetta returned no worse for wear a month later and stayed heathy from May onwards. He wound up taking the ball 27 times and worked to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings.

Pivetta’s run prevention numbers are those of a league average starter. That alone would be a significant boost to a San Diego rotation that needs reliable back-end innings. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk profile has been more intriguing than the bottom line results. He punched out 28.9% of opposing hitters against a modest 6.1% walk rate last season. That was the third season of the past four years in which he has posted a well above-average strikeout rate.

However, the swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by longstanding issues keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta has allowed a higher than average home run rate in every season of his MLB career. He gives up a lot of hard contact. While Statcast’s park factors grade Fenway Park as one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues overall, it has played around neutral for home runs over the past few seasons. Petco Park has been around average for home runs as well, though it broadly plays more favorably for pitchers.

Pivetta slots fourth on Mike Shildt’s rotation depth chart for the moment. He’s behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in what had been a very top-heavy rotation. It’s a lot more balanced now, as Pivetta can provide innings that San Diego lost when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. That’d leave one spot up for grabs among the likes of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and potential reliever conversion candidates Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.

That’d only be the case if there are no other moves before Opening Day. The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions. It’s the second straight winter in which the front office has had limited financial leeway. They’ve inked a trio of cheap one-year deals to plug holes at catcher and left field. They signed Elias Díaz for $3.5MM to start behind the plate while bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a left field platoon at a combined $2MM cost.

Pivetta won’t make much more than that in year one. The bigger ramifications are from a luxury tax perspective. The Padres snuck below the tax line in 2024. They’ve seemingly preferred to do so again this offseason. The Padres had projected narrowly above this year’s $241MM base threshold. Pivetta pushes them close to the second tax tier. RosterResource calculates their tax number around $258MM. The actual fees are relatively small. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’ll pay a $2.75MM tax on the Pivetta deal and are currently lined up for about $3.4MM in taxes overall.

While ownership may simply be willing to live with that relatively small tax bill, the front office could consider payroll-clearing trades in the coming weeks. Cease, who has a $13.75MM tax number himself for his final arbitration season, has been in trade rumors all offseason. King ($7.75MM) has been the subject of lesser trade chatter, while Robert Suarez and Luis Arraez have also been speculated about. Trading Cease or King would again raise questions about the rotation’s stability, though any such deal would almost certainly include at least one affordable MLB rotation piece in the return package.

The money isn’t the only cost for San Diego. They’ll surrender their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their 2026 bonus pool for international amateurs, because Pivetta had declined the qualifying offer. The Red Sox get a compensation pick in the ’25 draft, which will land 77th overall.

Pivetta winds up being the only free agent starter of this offseason to sign a four-year deal. Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino each signed for three years but pulled higher annual values. All but Wacha landed a larger overall guarantee. Severino and Manaea had also declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have received one had he not re-signed with Kansas City just before QO decisions were due. Pivetta will collect $23MM over the next two seasons. His opt-out decisions will come when there are two years at $32MM and (if he doesn’t take the first out) one year at $18MM remaining.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first to report the signing and the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Red Sox Continue To Have “Due Diligence” Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Red Sox were first linked to Dylan Cease’s market back in early December, before Boston acquired Garrett Crochet from the White Sox and signed free agent Walker Buehler.  These moves brought some needed reinforcement to Boston’s rotation, but the team’s interest in Cease continues to at least linger, as MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Sox “have been in touch with the” Padres about Cease’s availability.

A source indicated to McAdam that Boston’s interest is more of the “due diligence” variety, and could simply be due to the fact that Cease’s trade market might not be fully closed until San Diego actually moves the right-hander elsewhere.  There is also no guarantee that Cease will be dealt whatsoever, as reports from earlier this week suggested that the Padres were more apt to keep both Cease and Michael King (another pending free agent) to keep their own rotation strong.

Speculatively speaking, moving Cease to the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily create a hole in the Padres’ rotation, just because it would seem likely that the Sox would send a starter-capable pitcher back in return.  The Red Sox already have enough pitchers on hand that a six-man rotation isn’t out of the question, so this volume alone would suggest that at least one of those hurlers would be dealt to the Padres in exchange for Cease.

Crochet, Buehler, Brayan Bello, and Tanner Houck wouldn’t be doing anywhere, and Lucas Giolito’s salary and recent injury history would likely keep him off the Padres’ radar.  Beyond those pitchers, any of Kutter Crawford, Quinn Priester, or Richard Fitts could work as part of a trade package, fitting in nearer the back of San Diego’s rotation behind the top three of King, Yu Darvish, and former Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta.

It would take more than just a single young starter to pry Cease away from the Padres, of course.  As McAdam notes, the Red Sox would have to factor how much they’d be willing to give up for a rental pitcher like Cease, particularly when the club has already significantly dipped into its farm system to swing the Crochet trade.  Crochet was a different situation altogether, as he is arbitration-controlled for two seasons and is making only $3.8MM in 2025, plus the left-hander has already expressed some interest in signing a contract extension.  Cease is making $13.75MM in his final year before free agency, and like most Boras Corporation clients, is more likely to test the open market than explore an extension to remain with the Padres, Red Sox, or whatever team Cease might be playing for by season’s end.

The shorter-term benefit of adding Cease is obvious for a Red Sox club that seems intent on returning to contention.  Cease could slide right in as Boston’s No. 1 starter, bumping everyone down a step and lengthening the team’s rotation.  Since Alex Bregman could opt out of his new contract as early as next winter, the Sox might be viewing 2025 with particular “win now” urgency, and acquiring Cease would certainly help in quickly getting Boston back into the playoff race.

Salary-wise, the Red Sox are projected (as per RosterResource) for an approximate $241.6MM luxury tax number this season, putting the team just a touch over the $241MM tax threshold.  Bringing Cease’s salary on board would put the Sox more firmly into tax territory, which is perhaps notable since the traditionally high-spending Red Sox have crossed the tax line just once in the last five years.  Again, Boston’s renewed focus on contending might not make a one-year tax hit a big deal in the eyes of ownership, especially since even without adding Cease, it stands to reason the Sox will look to make some kind of in-season add at the deadline if the club is indeed competing for a postseason spot.

Kutter Crawford Behind In Camp Due To Lingering Knee Soreness

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Red Sox right-hander Kutter Crawford is behind schedule this spring, as noted by MassLive’s Christopher Smith. The issue at hand is soreness in his right patellar tendon, and Smith notes that the injury actually dates back to early last season, in his third start of the 2024 campaign.

Crawford, 29 in April, made a league-leading 33 starts for the Red Sox last year but faded badly in the second half. The right-hander pitched to a solid 3.00 ERA with a 3.77 FIP in his first 20 starts of the 2024 campaign, but things fell apart after the All-Star break as he struggled to the tune of a 6.59 ERA and 6.08 FIP with an eye-popping 20 homers allowed over the course of his last 13 starts. That rapid drop in production was fairly easy to dismiss as workload related given that Crawford’s 33 starts and 183 2/3 innings of work last year were a huge step up from the 23 starts and 129 1/3 innings he put together in 2023, but this news of playing through a patellar tendon issue casts his second half struggles in a different light.

As Smith notes, Crawford’s fastball velocity was down a tick last year relative to 2023, and the right-hander admits that he was struggling to properly push off the mound with his injured leg last season with fluctuating levels of pain that never fully evaporated throughout the season. That’s continued through the offseason and into Spring Training, resulting in Crawford being a bit behind the rest of the club’s pitching staff. While some pitchers have already progressed to facing live hitters this spring, Crawford is throwing low-intensity bullpens as he works to build up strength in his ailing knee.

When discussing the injury, Crawford made clear that surgery is not presently on the table, though he did acknowledge he and the club may have to “reassess the situation” if the pain he’s feeling continues after he’s finished rebuilding strength in his knee. Even with surgery not currently in the plans, however, Crawford’s availability for Opening Day appears to be in jeopardy. For his part, the right-hander said the decision about his availability for the start of the season is “not really in [his] hands” and that it will ultimately be up to how the team’s trainers want to handle his recovery process. Manager Alex Cora, meanwhile, described Crawford as “behind” in camp while also refusing to commit one way or the other regarding the righty’s status for the start of the season.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, they’re about as well-equipped to handle even an extended absence from last year’s 33-start workhorse as any club possibly could be. The club figures to welcome Lucas Giolito back after he missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery, and they’ve also added southpaw Garrett Crochet and right-hander Walker Buehler to the rotation mix this winter. Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and incumbent starts Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello already seemed likely to be part of the club’s starting rotation to open the season, and while a six-man staff including Crawford had been bandied about throughout the offseason there’s nothing stopping the Red Sox from simply going with a traditional five-man staff while Crawford recovers.

In the event the club wishes to use a six-man staff to open the season or another rotation arm gets hurt this Spring, however, the Red Sox do have a solid amount of depth at their disposal. Offseason signing Patrick Sandoval figures to be firmly in the club’s rotation mix when he returns to action at some point in the season half this year, and until then right-handers Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, and Quinn Priester could all find themselves in the conversation for spot starts as needed throughout the season.

Red Sox Undecided On Infield Alignment Following Alex Bregman Deal

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The Red Sox officially inked star infielder Alex Bregman to a three-year deal earlier today, and the assumption to this point has been that Bregman would slide into the club’s vacancy at second base. While Bregman played third base throughout his time in Houston and won a Gold Glove award for his work at the position last year, he made clear at the outset of the offseason that he was willing to slide over to the keystone if his new team so desired. Incumbent star Rafael Devers is entrenched at third base in Boston and has made his preference to remain at the position plain over the years, so Devers at third and Bregman at second seemed like the cleanest way for the club to sort out its positional conundrum. It may not wind up being that simple, however. As relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Red Sox manager Alex Cora was noncommittal about the club’s infield plans.

“We’ll talk about that later on,” Cora said when asked where Bregman will play, as relayed by Cotillo. “Right now, there’s a lot of stuff going on as far as we’re going to be roster-wise. We’ll make the decision when we have to make it… He’s a Gold Glove third baseman. He hasn’t played second base in the big leagues. I do believe he can be a Gold Glove second baseman, too. There’s other stuff that comes into play as far as roster construction and what’s better for the team and what can be the best lineup.”

Cotillo reports that Cora’s hesitance to name a defined position for Bregman reflects real uncertainty within the organization about how the club’s lineup with shake out from a positional standpoint. According to Cotillo, the club is making an effort to keep a path open for top infield prospect Kristian Campbell to break camp with the team on Opening Day. Campbell has experience at shortstop and in the outfield but has long seemed best suited for second base with the Red Sox. Cotillo suggests that Bregman could see time at both second and third base if Campbell makes the club’s roster, while Campbell himself could see time in left field in addition to his work at the keystone with Jarren Duran moving over to center. Devers, presumably, would slide over to DH on days where Bregman is at the hot corner.

If Campbell is ready for his big league debut, it’s hard to argue with the logic in keeping an open mind about how to make the pieces fit in the lineup. While Devers has been adamant about his desire to continue playing the field, Bregman and Campbell would likely be a more robust pairing defensively than Devers and Bregman given Bregman’s lack of experience at second base and Devers’s lackluster defensive numbers. It’s also not hard to imagine Campbell providing more on offense than the players who could have their playing time impacted by the decision to roster both Campbell and Bregman. In particular, Cotillo notes that Masataka Yoshida and Ceddanne Rafaela could be at risk of having their playing time reduced or even losing their roster spots if Campbell makes the team out of camp.

Speculatively speaking, it would be possible to get both players in the lineup on occasion even with Campbell in the fold. If the club were to play Bregman at third base with Campbell at second against left-handed pitching, that would likely push Devers to DH and Yoshida to the bench. That would allow Duran to play left field with Rafaela’s superior glove in center. Against right-handers, Devers could reclaim the hot corner with Bregman moving to the key stone, Campbell heading to left field, and Duran sliding over to center with Rafaela on the bench. Yoshida is a career .239/.318/.351 hitter against southpaws and playing him in a strict platoon role may be Boston’s preference regardless of how the decision regarding Campbell shakes out.

The righty-swinging Rafaela has reverse splits to this point in his young career, which would make him an imperfect choice to start primarily against lefty pitchers, but his true calling card is his defense and a combination of Duran, Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder on the grass against southpaws would give the Red Sox an excellent defensive outfield. With that being said, if the Red Sox hope to develop Rafaela into a true everyday player at some point rather than the super utility role he currently finds himself in, the club may prefer to get him everyday playing time in Triple-A rather than sporadic reps in the majors. It’s also worth noting that carrying all three of Campbell, Rafaela, and Yoshida on the roster would effectively shrink the club’s bench, leaving just one roster spot available for Romy Gonzalez, David Hamilton, and Vaughn Grissom.

Of course, all of this is predicated on Campbell hitting well enough this spring to earn a spot on the club’s Opening Day roster. Should Campbell look over-matched this spring, it seems likely the club would simply allow him more time to develop at Triple-A and use Bregman at second base on a regular basis until and unless Campbell earns a promotion to the majors. Even if Campbell can’t crack the big league roster on Opening Day, however, it seems likely he’ll get his first taste of the majors at some point this year, and this latest reporting provides a meaningful glimpse at what the club’s thought process could look like if Campbell forces his way onto the roster later in the year after not making the cut this spring.

Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman To Three-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Bregman’s deal.  To create roster space, Patrick Sandoval was moved to the 60-day injured list.  Sandoval underwent an internal brace procedure on his left UCL last June, so he was already expected to be out of action until the second half of the 2025 season.  Speier also provided some added details on the contract’s structure, writing that $20MM will be deferred in each of the three seasons.  Bregman will begin receiving these deferred payments in 10 years’ time.

Feb. 13: The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman’s three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the AAV will be calculated as $31.7MM for CBT purposes. Speier adds that there’s a $5MM signing bonus, followed by a $35MM salary in 2025, then $40MM salaries in the final two seasons.

Feb. 12: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with Alex Bregman on a three-year, $120MM deal. The Boras Corporation client receives massive $40MM salaries in each season, though an unreported amount of that money is deferred. Bregman can opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has yet to officially announce the signing.

Boston gets the best remaining free agent by offering a massive annual sum. Bregman reportedly had a standing six-year offer valued at $156MM from the Astros for most of the offseason. The Tigers reportedly put forth a six-year, $171.5MM proposal, while the Cubs offered a $120MM guarantee over a four-year term. As of last month, Bregman remained committed to a long-term deal. The Sox’s willingness to offer one of the biggest AAVs in league history changed the calculus.

It marks the end of an illustrious tenure in Houston. The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman was in the majors within a year of coming out of LSU. He immediately locked down third base. He hit .284/.352/.475 over his first full big league campaign, helping the Astros to their first World Series title in 2017. He was one of the top handful of players in baseball over the next two seasons. Bregman secured consecutive top five finishes in AL MVP balloting while combining for a .291/.409/.561 slash with more walks than strikeouts between 2018-19.

Bregman, 31 in March, successively hit 31 and 41 home runs over that stretch. His power production has ticked down since the ’19 campaign, which was the most homer-heavy season in league history. Bregman has hit between 23 and 26 homers in each of the past three seasons. He’d continued to post excellent on-base numbers up through 2023, though his OBP dropped last year as his walks plummeted.

The two-time All-Star hit .260/.315/.453 across 634 trips to the plate in 2024. He had by far his lowest on-base percentage since his half-season as a rookie nearly a decade ago. That was almost entirely because of a drop in free passes. Bregman walked in 6.9% of his plate appearances, nearly halving his typical 12-13% rates. He remained incredibly difficult to punch out (13.6% strikeout rate) and narrowly established a new career high with a 40.1% hard contact percentage.

Bregman started the season very slowly. He hit .216/.283/.294 with only one home run through the end of April. While his power started to rebound in May, he reached base at a meager .276 clip that month. He entered June with a .219/.280/.372 slash line that was beginning to raise questions about his earning power. He put those to rest with a fantastic finish to the season. Bregman hit .284/.337/.500 with 20 doubles and 19 home runs across his final 398 plate appearances. While the walks remained down, he managed much better batted ball results in the second half.

Over eight-plus seasons with the Astros, Bregman hit .272/.366/.483 with 191 home runs. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his Houston tenure around 40 wins above replacement. He won a Silver Slugger and was MVP runner-up in 2019 and won his first career Gold Glove last season. He has been an instrumental piece of Houston’s sustained postseason success and World Series wins in 2017 and ’23. His swing is perfectly suited for the short left field at Houston’s home park. Bregman certainly hasn’t been a product of the Crawford Boxes, though. He has been essentially the same hitter on the road (.275/.362/.489) and at home (.270/.369/.476).

Bregman will have a similar home setup with the Green Monster at Fenway. He’ll reunite with Sox manager Alex Cora, who was Houston’s bench coach in 2017. While the Sox’s front office had trepidation about adding another long-term infield commitment alongside Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, they were willing to pay handsomely in the short term.

Boston had roughly $210MM in luxury tax commitments going into this evening, as calculated by RosterResource. A $40MM average annual value for Bregman would push that close to $250MM. The actual AAV won’t be quite so high, as the deferrals will drop the net present value to an extent. It’s likely that the Sox will still end up beyond the $241MM luxury tax threshold. They didn’t pay the CBT last season, so they’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $241MM and $261MM. Even a true $40MM AAV for Bregman would only come with a $1.8MM tax hit for the Sox.

It’s the culmination of an exciting offseason for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff. The Sox opened the winter looking to add upside in their rotation. They eschewed long-term pitching investments, instead acquiring Garrett Crochet for four prospects while bringing in Walker Buehler on a one-year, $21.05MM deal. Boston signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year contract midway through his rehab from Tommy John surgery and made a pair of one-year pickups in the bullpen (Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson).

Adding a right-handed bat was the one offseason goal that the Sox had not accomplished. While an outfielder may have been a cleaner roster fit, Bregman’s willingness to move off his longtime position makes this workable. The Sox intend to play him at second base, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That made him a better fit than Nolan Arenado, who has been connected to the Sox in trade rumors for much of the winter.

Devers has been vocal about preferring to stick at third base. Bregman is a superior defender at the hot corner, but he should be athletic enough to move to the keystone for at least one season. He’d likely have spent most of his career in the middle infield had he not broken in with a team that had a Jose Altuve/Carlos Correa pairing.

That blocks the path to playing time for top prospect Kristian Campbell in the short term. The 22-year-old had a monster minor league season (.330/.439/.558 between three levels) to put himself in consideration for the second base job. Campbell seems likelier to begin the year in Triple-A Worcester now. He has played both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots in the minors, though, so the Sox should be able to find playing time for him somewhere as injuries arise throughout the year.

Campbell’s presence is probably a big reason the Red Sox kept this to a short-term commitment. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reports that Boston wasn’t interested in going past three guaranteed years. The tradeoff involves one of the largest per-year commitments in MLB history. The pre-deferral $40MM AAV is tied for the sixth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest of this winter behind Juan Soto’s $51MM AAV and ties the Aaron Judge deal for third in history among position players (trailing Shohei Ohtani and Soto).

Bregman was the final unsigned free agent who had declined a qualifying offer. Boston surrenders their second-round pick (54th overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their international signing bonus pool in 2026. They’re getting a compensatory pick about 20 spots later with Nick Pivetta signing with San Diego, so the draft capital comes out relatively close to a wash. As luxury tax payors, the Astros get the lowest compensation pick for Bregman’s departure — a selection after the fourth round, which lands around 137th overall.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic first reported that Bregman was signing with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the presence of deferrals. Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2 had the even salary structure. Image courtesy of Imagn.

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