- Reds legend Barry Larkin “has always coveted” their managerial job, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Now that the team has fired previous skipper Bryan Price and is currently going with an interim option in Jim Riggleman, it’s possible Larkin will emerge as a candidate when the Reds’ search for a full-time skipper begins in earnest. Larkin, a Hall of Fame shortstop with the Reds from 1986-2004, currently works with the team as a special assistant. Former major league skipper and ex-Red Buddy Bell is also under Cincinnati’s employ (as a senior adviser), but the 66-year-old is uninterested in managing the club, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter.
Reds Rumors
Dick Williams On Firing Of Bryan Price
- C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic breaks down the Reds’ firing of skipper Bryan Price in a subscription piece. As Rosecrans observes, it is in some regard actually more surprising that Price lasted this long, despite never overseeing a winning product, than that he was fired so early in the current season. Of course, the struggles during his tenure have hardly all been his fault, and it may be that the long-rebuilding team finally felt this was the time to make a statement. There were some internal hopes of improvement entering the year, making it all the harder to stomach an ugly start to the season. GM Dick Williams explained that “now was the right time to do something about” the fact that the team’s offseason work had gone so far south. At the same time, he acknowledged that “this is an organizational disappointment,” not something that falls only at the feet of Price and his staff. It’s certainly hard to escape that conclusion; as I documented in breaking down the Reds’ offseason just yesterday, Price was not exactly given a compelling roster to work with this year or in the past.
Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds
This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.
The Reds added a few role players but largely turned in a quiet offseason.
Major League Signings
- David Hernandez, RHP: two years, $5MM
- Jared Hughes, RHP: two years, $4.5MM
- Yovani Gallardo, RHP: one year, $750K (unknown whether fully guaranteed)
- Total Spend: $10.25MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Robinson Leyer from White Sox for unknown return
- Acquired RHP Miguel Medrano from Rangers for $350K in international bonus pool availability
- Claimed 1B Kennys Vargas from Twins (later lost via waiver claim)
- Claimed LHP Justin Nicolino from Marlins
- Claimed LHP Kyle Crockett from Indians (later non-tendered and re-signed to minors deal)
- Claimed LHP Jairo Labourt from Tigers (later lost via waiver claim)
- Selected RHP Brad Keller from Diamondbacks in Rule 5 draft (later traded to Royals for cash/PTBNL)
Extensions
- Signed 3B Eugenio Suarez to seven-year, $66MM contract with $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2025
Notable Minor League Signings
- Dylan Floro, Phil Gosselin, Rosel Herrera, Patrick Kivlehan, Joe Mantiply, Cliff Pennington, Oliver Perez, Kevin Quackenbush, Ben Revere, Tony Sanchez, Mason Williams, Vance Worley
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
The Reds entered this winter, much as the two previous ones, in something of a stasis at the major-league level. While there have been some encouraging signs from certain young players, the organization has not yet found cause to invest in high-quality veterans, both because it has yet to fully develop a new core of young talent and because the payroll is still burdened by several large contracts.
There’s no doubt that the Cincinnati ballclub is in a rebuild. It has failed to top seventy wins or crawl out of the NL Central basement since 2014. Unlike many organizations that find themselves in such a position, however, the Reds have not been able (or, to some extent, willing) to drastically slash payroll, which has barely dipped below $90MM over the past several years — not that far off of the ~$115MM high-point reached in 2014 and 2015.
On the one hand, that’s simply a product of circumstances. Several of the team’s most expensive players — Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco, and Brandon Phillips before them — have been essentially untradeable due to injuries, performance, and/or no-trade protection. But the team has also not found appealing opportunities to deal other expensive assets. Well-compensated superstar Joey Votto has full no-trade rights. Closer Raisel Iglesias — who’s relatively cheaper at this point but could opt into arbitration next fall — is rightly seen as a long-term asset, though certainly there’s risk in keeping a high-end young reliever. Center fielder Billy Hamilton was a frequent subject of trade chatter but ultimately was held over the just-completed offseason. And second bagger Scooter Gennett — who was a nice find last spring — is like Hamilton both increasingly pricey and nearing a final trip through the arb process.
The club also decided not to deal third baseman Eugenio Suarez, instead declaring him part of the core moving forward with an extension. He’s valued for both his glove and bat by the Reds. If he can maintain the pace he sustained in 2017, the contract will prove a relative bargain, though it’s also another big commitment and thus obviously carries some risk.
Those players, of course, are still in town. Former shortstop Zack Cozart, on the other hand, departed via free agency — leaving the Reds without any compensation. The club seemed in position to deal him at times, but evidently his ill-timed health issues and/or a lack of reasonable offers precluded a deal. While the Reds held out the possibility of extending Cozart, that never happened and the organization ended up not issuing him a qualifying offer at the end of the 2017 campaign. That decision is hard to fault, as Cozart may have felt it too risky to pass up $17.2MM for one season and carrying draft compensation onto the open market. Without knowing the precise offers that could have been had, it’s hard to second-guess the organization too much for its handling of that particular situation, but it’s certainly a less-than-desirable result in the situation of yet another quality veteran player.
In the aggregate, then, the Reds have likely not pocketed significant amounts of cash even while they’ve put an unsuccessful product on the field. And the organization has reasonably substantial sums already committed into the future, including about $68.5MM for 2019, $49.5MM for 2020, and $40MM for 2021. Contemplating future spending capacity is all guesswork from the outside, but it seems reasonable to say that the Reds did not save as much money or clear as much future payroll space as quite a few other rebuilding teams have in recent seasons. And that likely left less to work with this winter.
Given the situation, perhaps it’s unsurprising that the Dick Williams-led front office ended up turning in another quiet offseason. The organization took a budget-conscious approach to its two biggest needs — accounting for Cozart’s absence and adding some arms — and otherwise mostly elected to maintain the status quo in hopes of finding improvement from within in 2018.
With the outfield and starting infield already accounted for from within, the Reds decided to pursue a few utility pieces to help carry the load while waiting for top prospect Nick Senzel. The club ended up giving Opening Day jobs to both Cliff Pennington and Phil Gosselin, providing a veteran presence but not much hope of significant output.
On the pitching side, David Hernandez and Jared Hughes were both given low-AAV, two-year contracts to firm up the relief corps. Late-spring signee Yovani Gallardo was another addition, though it wasn’t long before he was cut loose. That trio was supplemented by a variety of claims and minor-league signees who’ll combine to add depth, but perhaps not much quality, to a Reds pitching staff that has been irredeemably awful over the past two seasons. Thus far in 2018, recent additions Kevin Quackenbush and Dylan Floro have stuck in the majors, while the team was also able to stash lefties Justin Nicolino and Kyle Crockett in the minors and off of the 40-man roster.
Questions Remaining
The resulting pitching unit is entirely underwhelming on paper. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the staff has opened the 2018 season as the worst in baseball, continuing a pace of three-year futility that may rival any in baseball history when all is said and done. Of course, as I argued last fall, there wasn’t much sense throwing money at the problem at this point. Even significant spending likely would not have made this roster a contending one; any outside chance at staying in the hunt was likely snuffed out anyway with a 3-and-15 start.
What the Reds are hoping, then, is that their slate of hurlers makes some strides that improve the future outlook. Veteran Homer Bailey is hoping to return to some level of health and effectiveness after three forgettable seasons. With $49MM still owed on his deal (including a buyout of a 2020 option), the best the team can hope for is to fill up some innings or perhaps save a bit of cash if there’s a team interested in a trade. It’s still anybody’s guess when Anthony DeSclafani will return from his run of injuries. He can be controlled for 2019 and 2020 via arbitration. Brandon Finnegan, who has one further year of control, is back on the hill after missing almost all of 2017. Each of these pitchers has succeeded at times in the majors, but whether they can do so again is questionable at best.
There’s some promise from younger arms, too. Luis Castillo was a major bright spot in 2017 and is the most intriguing player the team has returned from its recent trades. Tyler Mahle is expected to turn into a solid MLB starter. But both of these pitchers still need to fully establish themselves at the game’s highest level. A host of other arms — Sal Romano, Amir Garrett, Jackson Stephens, and former top prospect Robert Stephenson among them — will get their share of opportunities. Some, surely, will end up dropping into relief duty (as Garrett has to open the year). Perhaps one or more will prove worthy of a starting slot in the future, though you’ll be hard-pressed to find strong believers among outside talent evaluators.
Garrett has looked good in a relief role to open the season, potentially giving the team another late-inning piece while Hernandez and Michael Lorenzen work back from injury. Iglesias remains the anchor, while Wandy Peralta and Cody Reed provide two more lefty options to go with Garrett. Any contending team would have gone hunting for multiple upgrades over the winter. For the Reds, though, it’s more sensible to run out the pitchers they have to see what sticks.
The situation on the position-player side is more promising, generally, but also comes with some concerns. Perhaps no area is of greater interest than the middle infield. With Suarez locked in at third (once he’s back to full health), it seems that Senzel will end up playing in the middle infield. If he’s capable of playing short, that could put even greater pressure on Jose Peraza, who has to this point wilted with the open opportunity he has received since the start of the 2016 season. Gennett could be a mid-season trade candidate, though rival teams are no doubt aware of the deeper history (including his lack of success against lefties) that preceded his excellent 2017 season. First base (Votto) and catcher (Tucker Barnhart, Mesoraco) rate as strengths.
The outfield unit also has some more established options, though none are foolproof. Hamilton is a defensive and baserunning whiz whose bat seems less and less likely ever to come around. He’s flanked by two powerful, OBP-challenged players in Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler. Well-regarded youngster Jesse Winker is also slated to receive a lot of playing time after showing well in a 47-game stint last year. Phil Ervin, himself a former first-round pick, rounds out the major players in this arena. There’s talent here, but it’d be hard to call this a first-division unit. If things break right, though, the Reds could build from this group without further additions.
Overview
The real problems with the Reds’ current situation began not with any decisions this winter, but with whiffs in years past on moving veteran assets. A combination of questionable decisionmaking (especially, holding some veterans at the 2015 deadline) and poor prospect outcomes, along with injuries and some bad fortune, largely left Williams and co. without appealing options for moving things forward over the just-completed offseason. Unfortunately, that means another season of waiting and hoping that the young talent in an increasingly well-regarded farm system will develop — and do so in time to join Votto while he’s still one of the game’s best hitters.
How would you grade the Reds’ offseason efforts? (Link for MLBTR app users.)
Reds Fire Bryan Price, Mack Jenkins
The Reds announced this morning that they’ve fired manager Bryan Price and pitching coach Mack Jenkins. Bench coach Jim Riggleman will assume managerial duties on an interim basis, while Triple-A skipper Pat Kelly will take over Riggleman’s duties as bench coach. Double-A pitching coach Danny Darwin has been added to the Major League coaching staff as well. The Reds will conduct a search for a permanent managerial replacement “later in the year,” the team added.
Entering the season, Price was widely speculated to be on the hot seat. The 55-year-old former Reds pitching coach was entering his fifth season as manager in Cincinnati, but the Reds had opted only to exercise his 2018 club option rather than extend him to a longer team deal.
That decision came on the heels of four consecutive losing seasons, and while one can hardly blame the manager for not piling up wins on a clearly rebuilding club, Cincinnati also didn’t seem to demonstrably improve under Price’s watch. The Reds won 76 games in his first season as skipper back in 2014, and since that time they’ve won 64, 68 and 68 games in the respective seasons to follow.
This year’s Reds have been all the more disastrous, opening the year with a 3-15 record with a -46 run differential that easily ranks as the worst in the Majors. The Cincinnati front office clearly felt it was time for a new voice to guide the club, though it’s fair to question why that decision wasn’t simply made before exercising Price’s option, as not much has changed since last September. It’s also worth pointing out that Cincinnati hired former Red Sox and Blue Jays manager John Farrell in a scouting capacity this past offseason, and he’ll almost certainly join the list of managerial candidates when the Reds begin searching (if he doesn’t already top their list).
As for Jenkins, he took over for former pitching coach Mark Riggins back in July 2016, but Reds hurlers haven’t improved much, if any, under his tutelage. The Reds, to be sure, have had their share of meaningful injuries in recent seasons — perhaps none more notable than Anthony DeSclafani, who has not pitched since 2016 — but that doesn’t explain the general lack of development among the team’s more promising young arms. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote last September:
By measure of fWAR, at least, the 2016-17 Reds hurlers have turned in a two-year stretch of futility that is orders of magnitude worse than any other organization of the past two decades, falling well shy of the dreadful 2004-05 Royals and 2002-03 Devil Rays units.
The 2018 Reds staff hasn’t done anything to correct that tailspin. Cincinnati’s 5.42 ERA, 4.64 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA marks all rank second-worst in the Majors, while their 5.26 FIP as a collective unit is the highest mark of any team in baseball. Cincinnati pitchers rank near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage and have also posted one of the highest walk percentages of any team in baseball this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Acquire Ariel Hernandez From Reds For Zach Neal, Ibandel Isabel
The Reds and Dodgers have announced a swap that will send starter Zach Neal and first baseman Ibandel Isabel to Cincinnati. In return, the Los Angeles organization acquires recently designated reliever Ariel Hernandez.
Neal had already cleared waivers after being designated in the first week of April, so he won’t require a 40-man spot. He briefly appeared with the Dodgers after signing a minors deal in the offseason. Neal carries a 4.94 ERA with just 3.9 K/9 and 0.7 BB/9 in his 85 2/3 total MLB innings. The 29-year-old will presumably represent a depth option for the Cincinnati staff.
The Reds also pick up Isabel, a 22-year-old who has yet to move past the High-A level. He has produced some solid numbers in the low minors, though, including a .259/.327/.489 slash with 28 home runs over 492 plate appearances last year at Rancho Cucamonga. That showing did come with a rather unhealthy tally of 172 strikeouts, and the Dodgers obviously did not see cause to move him up the chain since he was back at the same level to open the 2018 season.
It’s certainly arguable that Hernandez is the most interesting player involved in this swap. He has huge stuff but hasn’t yet shown he can harness it at the game’s highest level. The Dodgers obviously are willing to place a bet that they can straighten him out. Hernandez worked to a 5.18 ERA with 29 strikeouts and 22 walks in 24 1/3 MLB innings in 2017.
Reds GM Dick Williams On Nick Senzel Timeline
With the Reds off to a brutal start to the season, and recently extended third baseman Eugenio Suarez out with injury, attention has turned to the question whether and when the team will promote top infield prospect Nick Senzel. GM Dick Williams addressed the matter with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, emphasizing that the organization is focused first on Senzel’s development.
The second overall pick in the 2016 draft, Senzel has played to expectations since joining the professional ranks. He’s widely considered one of the ten or so best prospects in the game and knocked around both High-A and Double-A pitching in 2017.
Particularly with Suarez still on the mend, there’s clearly a place for Senzel in the Cincinnati infield. But Williams says the organization felt it wasn’t the right call to promote Senzel to fill in the need. For one thing, he had been playing in the middle infield since the start of Spring Training. Thus, it was “a more natural move” for the organization to turn to the less-hyped Alex Blandino (along with some veterans already on the MLB roster) for the time being.
Beyond that, the top Reds’ baseball decisionmaker said, the preference is for Senzel’s promotion “to be more dictated by his performance and confidence as opposed to being dictated by the situation” in the majors. Despite his extremely impressive effort last year, Senzel turned in a relatively tepid Cactus League performance and has carried that sluggishness into the early portion of the 2018 season at Triple-A Louisville.
Service time is often the elephant in the room, though at this point the Reds could promote Senzel whenever they wish while knowing he will be controllable for six future seasons. Of course, if he’s held down long enough — mid-June, perhaps, though the precise date won’t be known until after the fact — then Senzel might be kept from reaching arbitration a year early as a Super Two player.
Regardless, Williams says such considerations have not factored in. The club is focused on Senzel being fully prepared — “more than ready when he gets here, if that’s at all possible.” Williams says the hope is that, once Senzel is up, he’ll be in the majors for good. But just when that will come to pass is unclear. And in the meantime, disappointed fans are sure to continue expressing their frustrations.
Rangers Acquire Tony Sanchez
The Rangers have acquired backstop Tony Sanchez from the Reds, both teams announced. Cash or a player to be named later will head back in return.
Once a highly-regarded prospect with the Pirates, the 29-year-old Sanchez has settled in as an upper-level depth piece. He’ll head to the Rangers’ top affiliate to take the place of Brett Nicholas, who was recently dealt to the Padres.
Sanchez has just 156 total plate appearances at the MLB level in four seasons of action, over which he carries a .257/.301/.375 batting line. He spent the bulk of 2017 at the Triple-A level with the Angels organization, where he posted a .272/.355/.374 slash with four long balls in 284 trips to the plate.
Price On Senzel Timeline
- The struggling Reds have received zero production from their third basemen since Eugenio Suarez hit the disabled list, but they’ve yet to call on one of baseball’s top prospects, Nick Senzel, to fill the void. As John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer notes, we’re already deep enough into the season that the Reds could promote Senzel and have delayed his free agency by a full year. Manager Bryan Price indicated that he believes Senzel could help the team right now but added that it’s a group decision and not one he can make on his own. “This is a decision that’s made by a lot of people for a lot of varying reasons,” said Price. “…I think he could help us. There’s also the argument that the people who see him and know him better than I do need to feel like he’s ready.” Senzel, the former No. 2 overall pick in the draft, is hitting just .233/.283/.349 through 46 Triple-A plate appearances, though his bat has picked up a bit after a four-game hitless slump.
Reds Notes: Schebler, Hernandez
- Reds outfielder Scott Schebler, on the DL retroactive to April 6 with a right elbow injury, is slated to play in a Triple-A rehab game Sunday, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relays. If that goes well, it’s possible Schebler will rejoin the Reds on Monday, according to manager Bryan Price. Meanwhile, reliever David Hernandez is getting close to embarking on his own rehab assignment, per Sheldon. The Reds signed Hernandez to a two-year deal in free agency, but right shoulder inflammation has kept him from debuting with the club.
Reds Designate Ariel Hernandez For Assignment
The Reds announced on Friday that they’ve designated right-hander Ariel Hernandez for assignment. His 40-man spot will go to righty Dylan Floro, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Louisville. Right-hander Tanner Rainey was optioned to Louisville to open a spot on the active roster for Floro, who’ll join the bullpen for tonight’s game.
Hernandez, 26, is best known for an electric fastball that he can run up into triple digits, though his big league debut in 2017 wasn’t particularly inspiring. Through 24 1/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen last year, the 6’4″, 230-pound righty posted a 5.18 ERA with and impressive 29 strikeouts against a disastrous 22 walks. He also served up six homers in that short time and posted a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate that was noticeably lower than his typically strong minor league marks.
That said, as a power arm with multiple minor league options remaining, Hernandez seems like the type of arm that could well command interest from other clubs — if not via trade then certainly on the waiver wire. It’s worth noting that Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper pointed out a spring velocity drop for Hernandez (Twitter link), which could very well have contributed to his DFA, though.
Floro, meanwhile, has 24 2/3 innings of big league experience and a 5.11 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 to show for it. While Hernandez struggles with his control, Floro specializes in preventing free passes, having only yielded 1.5 walks per nine innings in 245 2/3 frames at the Triple-A level. The 27-year-old has averaged just 5.9 K/9 at that level, but he’s also routinely posted ground-ball rates in the mid-50s and notched an impressive 61.6 percent grounder rate in Triple-A last year.
