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Examining The Brewers’ Avoidance Of Free Agency

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It's January 3rd, and the Brewers are the only team that has yet to sign a free agent to a Major League deal.  How normal is this free agent inactivity for them?  Here's a look at the team's past five offseasons in free agency.

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11 

2009-10

2008-09

My first thought upon examining these Brewers free agent forays is that it's no surprise Craig Counsell joined their front office.  Second, GM Doug Melvin did have a fairly recent offseason in which he only dipped his toe into free agency, when he committed $5.6MM on five one-year deals in 2010-11.

Another observation is that Melvin is comfortable signing free agents in the latter part of an offseason.  In the last five offseasons, he's signed 10 free agent deals in January or later: Lohse, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, Betancourt, Aoki, Kotsay, Davis, Hoffman, Looper, and Counsell.  That accounts for 40% of the free agents the Brewers signed during that time, and Melvin did at least one late deal every offseason (and four of five last winter).  He did late deals north of $5MM for Lohse, Davis, Looper, and Hoffman.

In Ed Creech's Brewers offseason outlook for MLBTR in October, he noted the team's needs at first base and potentially in the rotation and bullpen.  Since then the team made four moves: a waiver claim of utility man Elian Herrera,  the trade of Burke Badenhop for a pitching prospect, the selection of southpaw Wei-Chung Wang in the Rule 5 draft, and the trade of outfielder Aoki for lefty Will Smith.  Of Smith, Melvin told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy in December, "He'll come to camp and we'll look at him as a starter, but we know he can go to the bullpen."

It seems Melvin will make acquisitions to improve at first base and in the bullpen prior to Opening Day, and also perhaps trade Rickie Weeks if he can find a taker.  For first base, the Brewers have been linked to the Mets' Ike Davis and free agent Michael Young, and there's been speculation on names like Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, and Mike Carp.

Last March, Melvin and agent Scott Boras struck a very late, relatively team-friendly deal for starting pitcher Kyle Lohse that required the Brewers to forfeit the 17th overall draft pick.  This year, I imagine Boras feels a potential match exists with the Brewers and free agent Kendrys Morales.  The problem: the Brewers would have to forfeit the twelfth overall pick in the June draft to sign him.  While in theory the Brewers should consider giving up the pick if offered a big enough discount on Morales, it's extremely difficult to picture in reality.  With the draft scheduled for June 5th, the Brewers are better off surviving with Juan Francisco and others at first base for about two months and then signing Morales if they're in contention, free of the draft pick cost.  As we said last year with Lohse, if there's one agent willing to try this, it's Boras.

In the bullpen, Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and Gorzelanny are locked into spots, and Melvin has plenty of options for bargains in free agency.  While 2013-14 might be the Brewers' quietest free agent period in recent history, they have a GM known for doing contracts later in the offseason and he's not done yet.

Quick Hits: Brewers, Twins, Mulder, Angels, Red Sox

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It wouldn't make sense for the Brewers to move Rickie Weeks or Ryan Braun to first base, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy writes. The Brewers have been connected to Corey Hart, Ike Davis and other first basemen this winter, but they haven't landed any of them. Scooter Gennett figures to be the Brewers' second baseman next season, leaving no obvious spot for Weeks. Weeks doesn't have an ideal bat for first base, and the Brewers could try to trade him, if they can find a taker. Milwaukee sees Braun as a long-term fix in right field, McCalvy notes. (Also, we might add that Braun's performance at third base in 2007 very persuasively suggests that he stay in the outfield.) Here are more notes from around the Majors.

  • McCalvy also notes that Rule 5 pick Wei-Chung Wang's chances of sticking with the Brewers are "very slim," noting that the Brewers haven't kept a Rule 5 pick for an entire season since 2004 with reliever Jeff Bennett (who, like Wang, was selected out of the Pirates organization). Wang has also never pitched above the Gulf Coast League. McCalvy does point out, however, that there will be chances to stick in the Brewers' bullpen, particularly if they use lefty Will Smith as a starter.
  • The Angels want to keep their first-round pick in this year's draft, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez writes. They're still looking for pitching, though, and if they don't want to surrender their pick, then signing Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, who each rejected qualifying offers, won't be possible for them. That limits them to Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Garza, and Bronson Arroyo, followed by less-desirable options like Paul Maholm, Jason Hammel and Chris Capuano.
  • The Twins had "some interest" in Mark Mulder, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson tweets. Mulder was not interested in signing with Minnesota, however, and he ended up heading to the Angels instead.
  • Mulder says he's open to pitching in the minors if he feels like he's on a path back to the big leagues, but he doesn't want to stay in the minor leagues the whole season, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets.
  • It looks more and more likely that the Red Sox will re-sign Stephen Drew, and if so, that doesn't mean they'll necessarily trade Will Middlebrooks, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. A number of potential suitors, including the Mets, Pirates, Twins and Yankees, appear content to go with internal options rather than signing Drew and losing a draft pick, which could leave the Red Sox as the only team standing. Boston currently figures to head into the season with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop and Middlebrooks at third, but if they re-signed Drew, Bogaerts would head to third and Middlebrooks wouldn't have a place to play. The Red Sox could then keep Middlebrooks for depth. MacPherson points to the example of Mike Carp, who demonstrated last year that a player need not have an obvious starting role to be helpful — perhaps Middlebrooks could follow in his footsteps.

Mets Still Talking Ike Davis With Brewers, O’s, Pirates

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The Ike Davis rumor mill has calmed down as the holiday season has set in, but Mike Puma of the New York Post provides an update (Twitter link). The Mets remain in contact with the Brewers, Pirates and Orioles regarding Davis, but the team has been unsuccessful in its efforts to pry top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez away from Baltimore.

That the Mets are interested in Rodriguez is no surprise, but neither is the fact that the Orioles won't deal him for Davis. Rodriguez, a 20-year-old left-hander, posted a combined 3.41 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 145 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2013. His numbers took a hit upon reaching Double-A (4.22 ERA in 59 2/3 innings), but that isn't all that alarming when considering the fact that he was one of the youngest players in the league. The average age of pitchers in the Eastern League, for context, was 24.6. Hitters in the Eastern League had an average age of 24.4.

This isn't the first time Rodriguez's name has appeared on the rumor mill, as the Twins reportedly asked for the lefty in exchange for Josh Willingham when the Orioles claimed Willingham on waivers in August. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo currently ranks Rodriguez as baseball's No. 85 prospect, and ESPN's Keith Law ranked him No. 44 in his midseason Top 50 prospect list in July (Insider required). Baseball America ranks him third among O's prospects — behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman — noting in their subscription-only scouting report that he has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

In short, Rodriguez is a lofty asking price for Mets GM Sandy Alderson when peddling Davis to other clubs — higher than his reported asking price of Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. Davis is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.5MM in 2014 and can be controlled through the 2016 season.

Minor Moves: Haley, Scarpetta, Mastroianni, Ruffin

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Here are today's minor moves and outright assignments from around the league…

  • Indians right-hander Trey Haley has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Columbus, the team announced. Haley was designated for assignment last week in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for new closer John Axford.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that the Brewers have released right-hander Cody Scarpetta (Twitter link). Baseball America ranked Scarpetta as Milwaukee's No. 4 prospect at one point and ranked his curveball best among Brewers farmhands from 2008-11. Scarpetta, now 25, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012 and struggled to a 7.15 ERA in 34 innings upon his return in 2013.
  • The Twins announced that they've outrighted outfielder Darin Mastroianni to Triple-A Rochester. The 28-year-old was a solid fourth outfielder for the Twins in 2012 with outstanding defense and baserunning contributions, but an ankle injury limited him to 73 plate appearances in 2013. Mastroianni followed up a .250/.328/.350 showing in 2012 with a .185/.229/.215 effort in 2013.
  • Right-hander Chance Ruffin has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, the Mariners announced. Ruffin was designated for assignment last week in order to clear room on the 40-man roster for Franklin Gutierrez, who re-signed with Seattle on a one-year deal.
  • The Brewers have outrighted right-hander Michael Olmsted off their 40-man roster, according to senior director of media relations Mike Vassallo (on Twitter). The 26-year-old whiffed 60 batters in 59 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2013 but also walked 43 hitters en route to a 5.88 ERA.
  • Right-hander Rhiner Cruz has been outrighted from the Astros' 40-man roster, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Houston selected Cruz out of the Mets organization with the first overall pick of the 2011 Rule 5 Draft. The 26-year-old posted a 3.38 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in 2013 but walked more hitters (11) than he struck out (10) in that time. 
  • The Dodgers have signed right-hander Juan Abreu to a minor league contract, according to the team's transactions page. Now 28 years old, Abreu's only Major League experience came with the Astros in 2011 when he allowed two runs with 12 strikeouts against three walks in 6 2/3 innings of relief. The Dominican native has a 4.30 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 in 106 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.

Central Notes: Castro, Indians, Twins, Hart

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Starlin Castro claims that stress related to an ongoing legal dispute in the Dominican Republic has affected his on-field performance for the Cubs, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports. A coach at a baseball school in the Dominican is suing Castro, contending that a contract the shortstop's father signed when Castro was an amateur entitles the academy to a portion of his Major League earnings. The affair has had a "direct impact on his duties as a professional ballplayer, leading to one of his worst-ever statistical performances," Castro's countersuit states. While the 23-year-old played in 161 games last season, 2013 saw him slump to a .245/.284/.347 line. The 2014 season will be the second of the seven-year, $60MM deal Castro signed inked with the Cubs in 2012. Here's more from around baseball's Central divisions:

 Zach Links contributed to this post.

 

Minor Moves: Lin, Sanchez, Sosa, Ni, Burriss

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We'll keep tabs on the day's minor moves right here …

  • The Rangers have inked Taiwanese outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin to a minor league deal, Baseball America's Matt Eddy tweets. Signed by the Red Sox as an amateur free agent in 2007, Lin got his only 12 major league plate appearances in 2012 with Boston, swatting three singles in 12 plate appearances. He's hit .253/.349/.339 in his seven minor league seasons.
  • The Dodgers have signed two right-handed pitchers, Romulo Sanchez and Henry Sosa, and lefty Fu-Te Ni to minor league deals, according to Eddy (via Twitter). Sanchez spent 2013 in the Mexican League, while Sosa pitched for a Korean team last year. Ni last pitched in 2012, when he amassed a 4.56 ERA in 23 2/3 innings for the Tigers' Triple-A affiliate.
  • Eddy tweets that the Nationals have signed three minor league free agents: shortstop Emmanuel Burriss, catcher Mitch Canham and first baseman Brock Peterson. Burriss, 28, has seen 801 plate appearances in parts of five MLB seasons, but has struggled to a .243/.304/.269 line. He last appeared in the majors in 2012 with the Giants. The 29-year-old Canham has never appeared in the majors, but has seven minor league seasons under his belt and a lifetime line of .255/.340/.364. Now 30, Peterson got 28 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2013, his first taste of the big leagues, managing just a .077 batting average. His career minor league triple slash of .274/.354/.464 is much better, however.
  • The Nationals have also signed backstop Chris Snyder to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, the club announced via Twitter. The soon-to-be 33-year-old Snyder should have a chance to compete for the club's backup job with younger options Jhonatan Solano and Sandy Leon. Snyder's last substantial MLB action came in 2012 with the Astros, when he put up a .176/.295/.308 line in 258 plate appearances. Snyder did, however, post an OPS over .800 last year in his time at Triple-A with the Orioles and Angels. His career MLB line stands at .224/.328/.382 in 2,459 plate appearances. The Steamer and Oliver projection systems (via Fangraphs) both like Snyder to put up an 84 wRC+ at the plate next year while adding solid defense. Snyder spent part of the spring with the Nationals last year, but requested his release when he failed to make the big league roster. Snyder would earn $1MM plus incentives if he makes the roster out of the spring, reprots ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). 
  • The Brewers have released righty Cody Scarpetta, tweets Eddy. As Eddy notes, Scarpetta was twice ranked among the ten best prospects in the Milwaukee organization, and occupied a 40-man spot for three seasons. The 25-year-old posted a 3.85 ERA in 117 innings at Double-A Huntsville in 2011 before missing the 2012 season to undergo Tommy John surgery. Scarpetta mustered only a 7.15 ERA in 34 innings at the High-A level last year, including an ugly 9.5 BB/9.
  • As always, MLBTR's DFA Tracker is your guide to players currently (or previously) facing DFA limbo. At the present, seven players have been removed from their clubs' 40-man rosters while they wait to learn their fate: Eric Surkamp of the Giants, Brett Marshall of the Yankees, Trey Haley of the Indians, Chance Ruffin of the Mariners, Ryan Reid and Jerry Sands of the Pirates, and Alex Castellanos of the Red Sox. Decisions are due today on Castellanos and tomorrow on Reid and Sands, but the others could be forced to sweat things out over Christmas.

Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

 

Brewers Eyeing Michael Young

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The Brewers are interested in Michael Young as a first baseman, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The Dodgers and Rockies are also in the mix for Young.  The Nationals are involved too, but they're also exploring other options at present.

Young could pair with Juan Francisco at first base in Milwaukee.  It certainly helps that, as Rosenthal notes (link), Brewers GM Doug Melvin and coaches Jerry and Johnny Narron know Young from his days with the Rangers.

The Brewers have been combing the first base market and lost a potential option when they're own free agent, Corey Hart, hooked on with the Mariners.  Recently, our own Charlie Wilmoth looked at some of the other remaining options at the first base position, including the Cardinals' Matt Adams, the Mets' Ike Davis ( whom they've been heavily connected to), and Kendrys Morales.  Adams would be a tremendous addition, but prying him away from divisional rivals could be tough.

Central Notes: Cubs, Veras, Santana, Pirates

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The Jose Veras signing makes sense for the Cubs since he comes at an affordable rate, has experience, and can groom the younger guys like Pedro Strop, opines Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com (via Twitter). Earlier tonight, the Cubs agreed to sign Veras to a one-year, $4MM deal with a $5.5MM club option for 2015.  Here's more out of the AL and NL Central..

  • Before agreeing to his deal with the Cubs, Veras tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (on Twitter) that he also had an offer from the Mariners. The Rockies and Astros were also among the clubs with reported interest.
  • Even after the Mike Pelfrey agreement, the Twins are maintaining dialogue with Johan Santana's representatives, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (on Twitter). For his part, Santana is very open to a return.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel checked in with Brewers GM Doug Melvin and it doesn't sound like the club is closing in on a first base solution.  "It's pretty quiet," said Melvin. "We know all the names. It's a small group. Nothing changes from one day to the next. Ike Davis is the one player people talk about. Other than that, there's not much available."   Haudricourt also asked Melvin about Rangers' first baseman Mitch Moreland, but Melvin says that at last check, Texas said they won't move him. 
  • With multiple question marks, David Schoenfield of ESPN.com feels that the Pirates are likely to regress in 2014.

James Loney To Rays Further Thins First Base Market

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With Corey Hart and Logan Morrison heading to the Mariners and James Loney agreeing to return to the Rays this week, the Pirates and Brewers remain on the hunt for a first baseman, as MLB.com's Anthony DiComo notes (via Twitter). The Astros could be on the lookout for a first baseman as well. With Mike Napoli (Red Sox) and Justin Morneau (Rockies) also gone, there isn't much left on the free-agent market, which means teams still hoping to acquire a first baseman will probably also consider trades. Here's a look at the main options still available.

  • Matt Adams, Cardinals. Adams is far better than most of the players listed below, but the Cardinals would only be likely to move him in a major deal. It would be very hard for the Pirates or Brewers to pry him away, since they're both NL Central teams, and the Astros likely don't have the big-league talent the Cardinals would need in order to decide to part with him. His .284/.335/.503 line in 2013 would be a valuable addition to any big-league lineup, however.
  • Kendrys Morales, free agent. Morales might be the highest-profile name remaining as a free agent, but after a season in which he hit .277/.336/.449 while playing poor defense (in the 31 games in which he played first base), he declined the Mariners' qualifying offer. It's hard to see many teams, including the Pirates and Brewers, give up a draft pick for the right to sign a defensively-limited player on the wrong side of 30. It appears likely that Morales will end up back with an AL team, as CBS Sports' Mike Axisa recently noted.
  • Ike Davis, Mets. The Mets seem determined to trade either Davis or Lucas Duda. Davis may be the more attractive of the two candidates, due to his power, although he'll also be more expensive than Duda in arbitration this year. The Mets also seem more inclined to trade Davis. With Loney off the market, there's now a clear path for the Mets to deal Davis to either the Brewers or Pirates. There may be a feeling around baseball that they waited too long, however, with Mike Puma of the New York Post recently tweeting that a source recently told him the Mets were going to "sell low" on Davis. The Star-Ledger's Andy McCullough, meanwhile, tweeted, "The Mets' slow, steady march toward trading Ike Davis for something like a right-handed relief prospect is such a drag." In any case, it's hard to see the Mets getting much for Davis, or any team getting particularly excited about installing him at first, after he hit .205/.326/.334 in 2013, even though he batted .286/.449/.505 after the All-Star break. Davis appears set to make about $3.5MM through arbitration in 2014.
  • Justin Smoak, Mariners. With Hart and Morrison both heading to Seattle, Smoak is now available, with the Mariners likely favoring a big-league contributor, rather than a prospect, in return. It remains to be seen how much other teams might want Smoak, however — the former top prospect has hovered around replacement level for his career, and at 27, it may be that his once-highly-regarded bat won't ever carry him. Smoak hit .238/.334/.412 in 2013.
  • Mitch Moreland, Rangers. Moreland's name has appeared in trade rumors since Texas traded for Prince Fielder, but he currently still has a role in Texas at DH. That could change somewhat, however, if the Rangers sign Shin-Soo Choo or re-sign Nelson Cruz, but right now, there appears to be no pressing reason for the Rangers to trade Moreland unless they want to. Moreland hit .232/.299/.437 in 2013, but unlike any of the trade candidates mentioned above, he does play plus defense at first base.
  • Adam Lind, Blue Jays. Lind, who batted .288/.357/.497 in 2013, is a well-above-average hitter, but he's not much of a defender at any position. Also, like Moreland, he has a clear role on his current team as a DH. The Pirates recently asked the Jays about Lind, only to have the Jays ask for Neil Walker in return. If the Blue Jays do trade Lind, he probably won't come cheap.
  • Mike Carp, Red Sox. WEEI's Rob Bradford recently tweeted that Carp was receiving plenty of attention on the trade market, which is no surprise — unlike Davis and Smoak, Carp hit well in 2013, and unlike Moreland and Lind, he has no clear starting role with his current team. Carp played mostly first base and outfield in 2013, but with Jackie Bradley Jr. expected to replace Jacoby Ellsbury in center field, and with Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes expected to play in the corner spots, he won't necessarily be needed in the outfield next year. There isn't much room elsewhere, either, with Mike Napoli and David Ortiz returning at first base and DH, respectively. If Carp hits .296/.362/.523 again, the Red Sox can surely find space for him, but if another team approaches them with a nice offer, they could easily deal him, too.
  • Eric Chavez, free agent. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman recently reported that the Pirates were one of several teams to check in on Chavez, and upon inspection, it's easy to see why. The veteran hit .281/.332/.478 in Arizona in 2013, and while he has limited experience at first base and isn't the defensive star he once was at third, it's easy to imagine he would be at least average defensively if he were to move across the diamond. He might also be relatively cheap, since he was a part-time player in 2013. He's an injury risk, but with Pittsburgh, in particular, he wouldn't have to play every day, since Gaby Sanchez would start against lefties.
  • Kevin Youkilis, free agent. Youkilis missed most of the 2013 season due to injury and wasn't good when he played, but he was a valuable asset as recently as 2011. He'll be 35 in March, however, and showed signs of decline in 2012, so it's fair to wonder how much he has left. He also prefers to play on the West Coast, so he may not want to sign with Milwaukee or Pittsburgh.

Mets, Brewers Still Talking Ike Davis

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FRIDAY: The Brewers and Mets are still talking about Davis, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). However, Milwaukee is holding firm in its stance that it will not part with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reported earlier in the week that the Mets had asked for Thornburg in return for Davis.

Haudricourt adds (also via Twitter) that if the Brewers are still in talks for Davis, it's likely an indication that Loney is still asking for too much in terms of years and/or average annual salary.

THURSDAY, 12:46pm: The Mets and Brewers met to discuss Davis on two separate occasions at the Winter Meetings, tweets Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. The Rays and Pirates are also possibilities for Davis, he adds.

10:23am: According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, all indications are that Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin could move quickly to address his first base need. Melvin is meeting with Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Haudricourt continues, so it's possible the two sides could work out a deal for Ike Davis. The Brewers have some interest in James Loney, but negotiations with him would be more complicated with other teams such as Pittsburgh in the mix, Haudricourt adds (Twitter links).

The Brewers missed out on a pair of their top first base targets yesterday, with each heading to the Mariners. Seattle reached an agreement with Corey Hart and swung a trade for Logan Morrison within an hour's time, leaving the Brewers with a sizable hole at first base. 

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