Minor Deals: Brewers, Clevlen, Alaniz, Boleska
The D'Backs released Ron Mahay and the Mariners claimed Jeff Gray. Here are the rest of today's minor moves…
- The Brewers released Alex Periard and Demetrius McKelvie, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).
- The Reds signed Brent Clevlen, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Clevlen, a former top prospect who's now 27, has big league experience with the Tigers and Braves.
- The Phillies released Adrian Alaniz, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (on Twitter). The 27-year-old right-hander struggled in eight appearances at Class A this year, posting a 7.71 ERA. He has a 3.19 ERA with 7.8 K/0 and 3.0 BB/9 in five minor league seasons, but has yet to pitch above Double-A.
- The Pirates released Double-A right-hander Tom Boleska, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). Boleska, a 24-year-old right-hander, has a 2.73 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in five minor league seasons, but has struggled in 12 appearances at Double-A this year.
- The Mets acquired Bubba Bell from the Indians and assigned him to Triple-A, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (on Twitter). The Indians acquired Bell from the Red Sox in March and he hit .292/.346/.375 at Triple-A..
2012 Contract Issues: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (7)
- Raul Ibanez will probably be allowed to leave, freeing up some cash and leaving an opening in left field for the Phillies.
- Shortstop Jimmy Rollins hasn't been a power guy for several years, but he is sporting a career-best walk rate currently. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, but Rollins, 33 in November, could be the cheaper free agent alternative to Jose Reyes. The Phils don't have an obvious replacement for Rollins.
- Ryan Madson, a Scott Boras client, is four-for-four in save opportunities this year with Brad Lidge and Jose Contreras out. Madson wants to finish his career with the Phillies and be a closer. The team could let Lidge go and sign Madson for something like three years and $18MM.
- Danys Baez, Brian Schneider, Ross Gload, and J.C. Romero will also be eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (2)
- Roy Oswalt: $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout. Oswalt is undecided on whether to play next year. He's currently on the DL with back pain, so the option seems up in the air for both sides.
- Brad Lidge: $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout. Lidge is recovering from a shoulder injury; it's tough to see the Phillies picking this one up.
Arbitration Eligible (6)
- First time: Wilson Valdez, Scott Mathieson
- Second time: Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, Pete Orr
- Third time: None
- Fourth time: Cole Hamels
Not all of these players will make it to the point of being tendered contracts. The only lock is Hamels, who signed an extension in January of '09 but left his fourth arbitration year open. He's working from a $9.5MM salary and having a strong year so far. The arbitration cases of Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver could be factors (more on those here and here), if one or both of them settles first. $15MM is a reasonable estimate for Hamels, though. Hamels wants to stay, but the team has yet to approach him about an extension.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Phillies' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $112.903MM including buyouts for Oswalt and Lidge. If another $15MM goes to Hamels, they're at $128MM, about $38MM shy of this year's $166MM high water mark. A lot of that money could be eaten up if Rollins, Madson, Oswalt, Kendrick, and Francisco are retained, which are open questions at this point. The Phillies have flexibility if they maintain their payroll, but also have several crucial free agents and one huge arbitration case.
Quick Hits: Morales, Padres, Cardinals, Hamels
Links for Sunday, as players around the league break out the pink bats. Happy Mother's Day!
- Kendrys Morales will travel to Vail, Colorado to see a foot specialist for a second opinion on his left ankle, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times. In a followup tweet, DiGiovanna says that they've "explored" the possibility of surgery. Mark Trumbo has filled in for Morales with a .265/.296/.500 line and six homers.
- Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the Padres should consider trading one of their late-inning arms, perhaps Heath Bell, for offensive help.
- Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he's open to exploring a trade for a closer. While Mozeliak is on board with Tony La Russa's current "hot hand" approach for the ninth inning, the GM would prefer to see more defined roles in the bullpen as the season progresses.
- Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer examines the likelihood of Phillies starter Cole Hamels playing in Philadelphia long-term.
- As Newsday's Ken Davidoff writes, there may not be any top starting pitching available at the trade deadline this year. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes drew the same conclusion after examining the midseason trade market for the AL and NL in mid-March.
Stark On Liriano, Hamels, Hosmer, Reyes
Here's the latest from Jayson Stark of ESPN.com …
- Twins lefty Francisco Liriano could be made available via trade in July if Minnesota continues to struggle, but teams will be hesitant to acquire him because of his inconsistencies. One scout told Stark that Liriano has great stuff, but the southpaw's mechanics are a mess. Liriano is under team control through next season.
- Phillies lefty Cole Hamels' three-year, $20.5MM deal expires after this season, leaving him with one year of arbitration eligibility before free agency. Stark wonders how the Phillies will approach a potential extension for Hamels, and Hamels' agent said that the sides haven't yet discussed such a deal. One point of reference to keep in mind, per Stark: Justin Verlander, whose five-year, $80MM pact with the Tigers bought out three years of arbitration eligibility.
- Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer made his Major League debut today amid much fanfare, but several teams told Stark that they would have waited a while longer so as to ensure that the blue-chipper wouldn't be a Super Two. Kansas City, however, has said all along that it would call up its players when they're ready, according to Stark. Earlier today, Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the financial implications of Hosmer's promotion.
- The Mets and Giants maintain that they haven't discussed a potential trade for shortstop Jose Reyes. However, Stark thinks the Giants will need to address the position, and Reyes is a perfect fit.
Heyman On Reyes, Lowe, Peavy, Howard
The Cardinals, Giants, Brewers, Red Sox, Twins and Mariners are possible suitors for Jose Reyes this summer, writes Jon Heyman of SI.com. However, the Mets don’t have an obvious replacement for their shortstop and attendance could suffer if they deal Reyes, as Heyman points out. (Though the Mariners have won seven of their last nine games and haven't obtained much production at short, it's still extremely difficult to imagine them trading for Reyes.) Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors:
- Derek Lowe could be available at the trade deadline given the Braves’ starting pitching depth.
- The White Sox have insurance on Jake Peavy, according to Heyman. This means that the team may already have started receiving payments to help cover the injured right-hander’s $16MM salary.
- Heyman, a defender of Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125MM contract from the start, says the first baseman has been “worth every penny so far.”
- On the one-year anniversary of Howard's deal, I concluded that Howard and agent Casey Close had done well to sign the contract.
- The Nationals may want to consider locking manager Jim Riggleman up, Heyman writes. The Nationals have a team option for Riggleman's 2012 services.
Quick Hits: Feliz, Oswalt, Dodgers
A few items to close out this weekend..
- Given his recent mind-changing history, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) suggests not reading too much into Neftali Feliz's thoughts on starting next season. Earlier today, Feliz said that he wants to continue finishing games for the rest of his career, before backtracking later on.
- Buster Olney of ESPN tweets that of all the players he has ever written about, he would say that Roy Oswalt is among those most likely to leave baseball whenever he felt it necessary.
- Tom Schieffer is a good pick to oversee the Dodgers, writes Olney. Olney writes that Schieffer is, by all accounts, a tough negotiator and someone who will make budgetary decisions and stick to them.
Stark On Rangers, DeRosa, Phillies, Papelbon
Joey Votto is the player of the month for ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, who hears from a scout that the Reds’ first baseman is more feared than anybody in the National League, including Albert Pujols. Here are the rest of Stark’s rumors:
- One NL executive thinks the Mariners are so far from winning that they should be listening to offers for Felix Hernandez, who is under team control through 2014. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports heard from a number of executives who expect King Felix to stay put for now.
- An AL official says the Rangers are the most likely candidate to trade for a high-profile reliever this summer. Their bullpen has taken a number of hits, with Neftali Feliz and Darren O’Day on the DL and Alexi Ogando moving to the rotation.
- Stark hears that the only players available now are those with “awful contracts.”
- Despite the buzz about Mark DeRosa and the Marlins, Stark hears that the Giants and Marlins have not had serious discussions about the currently-injured utility player.
- The Phillies will find it hard to add payroll this summer, but they’re eyeing potentially available bats.
- Though Jonathan Papelbon will likely test the free agent market after the season, Stark gets the impression that the reliever could re-sign in Boston after all.
Quick Hits: Astros, Phillies, Bautista, Starling
Links for Friday on the 25th anniversary of Roger Clemens' first 20 strikeout game…
- MLB officials say Jim Crane is still on track to buy the Astros from Drayton McLane, according to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. Justice argues that Crane should bring Lance Berkman, Andy Pettitte and former GM Gerry Hunsicker back to Houston if he does take over.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that manager Charlie Manuel needs to be cautious with his rotation, because it’s “by far the Phillies' biggest strength.”
- Former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi told Tom Verducci of SI.com that he liked Jose Bautista enough to trade for him, but wasn’t expecting historic production from the former utility player. “If you told me he would hit 20 home runs, I would have believed it because you could see the power,” Ricciardi said. “But no way could you see 50.”
- D'Backs GM Kevin Towers was on hand to watch high schooler Bubba Starling play yesterday, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter). A two sport athlete, Starling is arguably the top high school position player in the 2011 draft.
Ryan Howard’s Extension One Year Later
Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM extension doesn't kick in until 2012, but it has been exactly one year since the Phillies signed their slugging first baseman long-term. A year ago this time, the reaction to GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was critical. Why, analysts asked, would the Phillies commit nine figures for Howard's age 32-36 seasons when he doesn't play a premium position and figures to be well into his decline phase by 2016, the last guaranteed year of the contract?
The Phillies had their reasons for making the deal; Howard had reached 45 homers for the fourth consecutive season in 2009, further establishing himself as one of the premier power hitters in the game. Yet Rob Neyer, Keith Law, Dave Cameron, Ken Rosenthal and others argued that Howard's power didn't necessarily justify a five-year deal worth $25MM per season.
Since finalizing the contract, Howard has hit .278/.357/.508 with 31 homers, 111 RBI, 24 doubles and 5 triples. The 31-year-old made the All-Star team in 2010 and cracked the top ten in the NL MVP balloting, though he posted a career-low slugging percentage and hit fewer home runs than usual. Though his numbers are good, they aren't what we're used to seeing from Howard and the Phillies may have been counting on more (he has just 2.4 total wins above replacement since the beginning of 2010).
Howard remains an above-average first baseman, a key player for a perennial contender that currently has the best record in the game. But he's older and less productive than Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the two premier position players who will hit free agency after 2011. If Howard had not signed his extension, he would have hit the open market this offseason as the third-most appealing player at his position.
His career numbers would have generated lots of interest, especially if he continues producing in 2011, and there's no doubt that he would have been in line for an impressive free agent contract. $25MM per year, however, would likely have been out of reach for Howard. We won't know for another five years whether the initial reaction to the deal was fair, but at this point it appears that the analysts were right: Howard and agent Casey Close are looking smart for signing the $125MM contract a year ago.
How Do Teams Replace Sudden Losses?
When the Tampa Bay Rays suddenly found themselves without Manny Ramirez, it was assumed that the production fallout would be extreme. After all, who ever heard of Sam Fuld?
Now, of course, everybody has heard of Fuld and his 156 OPS+ this season. While it is unlikely to continue, Fuld provides a feel-good story that exceeds whatever goodwill the Rays would have received from a Ramirez renaissance. The Rays could still make a move to add offensive production, and I wanted to take a closer look at how teams filled unexpected non-injury losses.
The Ramirez loss brought back to mind the last time Manny's drug issues left his employer short-handed. The year was 2009. Barack Obama was President of the United States. America's television networks were overrun by reality shows. And suddenly, baseball was Manny-less for 50 games.
Stepping into Manny's shoes was Juan Pierre in left field. During Ramirez's suspension, Pierre managed a .318/.381/.411 line, solid production at the position. Overall, his 104 OPS+ was the second-highest of his career. He wasn't Manny, but he kept the Dodgers on pace for 95 wins and a division title. It was not the disaster many feared.
The stakes were very different back in 1989, when an aging Mike Schmidt unexpectedly retired on May 28th with a season line of .203/.297/.372. Hopes had been high for Schmidt to regain his Hall of Fame form after a down 1988, but 172 plate appearances in, Schmidt acknowledged that he simply wasn't the same player anymore.
With internal options Chris James and Randy Ready stretched as everyday third basemen, the Phillies made a deal three weeks later, trading Steve Bedrosian and Rick Parker to the Giants for Charlie Hayes, Terry Mulholland and Dennis Cook. Hayes provided an OPS+ of 93 as the regular third baseman, around where Schmidt was when he called it quits.
The move helped Philadelphia eventually win the National League in 1993, along with a second deal that day with the Mets to bring Lenny Dykstra into the fold. At the time, however, it was the Charlie Hayes trade, and Hayes left the Philadelphia fans disappointed, both because Schmidt was impossible to replace, and because the Phillies finished 67-95.
The fill-ins for Thurman Munson back in 1979 didn't live up to even Charlie Hayes production. Munson, who died in a plane crash in August 1979, left the Yankees with a pair of catchers: Jerry Narron and Brad Gulden. While Munson's contributions extended beyond his OPS+ of 95, Narron and Gulden couldn't approach that, Narron checking in at 44, Gulden at 23. For reference, 1979 NL Cy Young Award winner Bruce Sutter, a relief pitcher, had an OPS+ of 49. The Yankees finished at 89-71, good for fourth in a tremendous AL East.
Speaking of ex-Yankees, anyone who saw the John Goodman vehicle "The Babe" knows that Ruth hit three home runs, then retired from the Boston Braves in 1935. (Left out of the film are the five games that followed, but then my problems with that movie could fill a whole other column.) Ruth finally retired on May 30, in circumstances quite similar to Schmidt's. Ruth's .181/.359/.431 line was still good for an OPS+ of 118, down just a bit from his career mark of 206 (author's note: ZOMG), but well ahead of his replacements in left and right field. Both Hal Lee (96 OPS+) and Tommy Thompson (95 OPS+) failed to reach league-average at the position. And if you think that's bad, Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville, a 43-year-old teammate of Ruth's on the 1935 Braves, put up an OPS+ of… 2. And he stayed for the whole season, a glorious 38-115 campaign.
So rest assured, Sam Fuld may come down from his 156 OPS+ perch. But the Rays are likely to best the 1935 Braves, no matter how badly Fuld slumps.