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NL Central Notes: Davis, Holliday, Walker, Lee

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The Cardinals didn’t have a strong interest in Chris Davis at the start of December and not much seems to have changed in two weeks, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards still aren’t keen on the free agent slugger.  Of course, quite a bit has happened in the last two weeks, as St. Louis has come up short in its pursuit of such top-tier free agents as Jason Heyward and David Price.  Rather than sign Davis, the Cards seem prepared to use a Brandon Moss/Matt Adams platoon at first base this season (not to mention Stephen Piscotty also on hand as an option at first).  Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals’ interest in Alex Gordon is complicated by Matt Holliday’s presence in left, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi writes.  Aside from a handful of games at DH, Holliday has never played anywhere other than left field during his 12-year career, so someone like Gordon would have to be okay with playing in center or right for 2016 — Holliday is only under contract through this season.  Holliday has a no-trade clause, and he’s probably unlikely to waive it to go elsewhere this late in his career.  Morosi also floats an interesting little conspiracy theory, noting that Holliday and Davis are both represented by Scott Boras; so if Holliday refuses a trade and blocks a Gordon signing, that could theoretically make St. Louis a suitor for Davis if the club is intent on adding another big bat.
  • The history of Neil Walker’s long-term extension talks with the Pirates is compiled in a very interesting piece from Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Walker turned down a multi-year offer from the Bucs in his 2010 rookie year and talks didn’t pick up again until last winter.  The Pirates offered a three-year, $27MM extension that would’ve covered Walker’s last two arb years and his first free agent year; that was countered by a two-year, $19MM offer from Walker’s camp but the Pirates wanted a team option on that 2017 free agent year.  “The offer wasn’t very realistic.  And there was no negotiating in between. It was, ‘Here it is.’ When we countered, there was no response, so we went to the [arbitration] hearing,” Walker said.  That hearing ended up being “probably the point when I lost all faith in the organization,” as Walker was put off by the Pirates’ assessment of his play and figured his days were numbered in Pittsburgh.  Walker’s tenure with the Bucs ended last week when he was traded to the Mets for Jon Niese.  On the Walker negotiations, GM Neal Huntington said that “every agreement has to find a common middle ground. We’ve been successful on other fronts. This one was not successful. We’re as much at fault as anybody.”
  • The Pirates have some level of interest in Korean first baseman/DH Dae-ho Lee, according to Biertempfel (on Twitter).  Lee met with GMs from four clubs in Nashville, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (on Twitter), though it’s not clear whether the Pirates were one of those teams.  Lee feels that he might not have a deal by the end of 2015, though he could sign sometime in January (link to Yoo’s Twitter).
  • The Cubs “had a lot of lines in the water” on the trade market, an NL executive tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  “The expectation is,” as Sherman writes, that the aggressive Cubs will make another big move to add a front-of-the-rotation young starter, and are dangling Jorge Soler and/or Javier Baez to make such a deal happen.

MLBTR’s Zach Links also contributed to this post

Reactions To Jason Heyward Signing With Cubs

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Not only did the Cardinals lose out on Jason Heyward – they lost out while offering the most overall money, according to Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch.  Two sources tell Goold that the Cardinals’ offer was greater in guaranteed value while the Cubs had the higher annual average value, at $23MM/year.  As Goold notes, this marks the second time this winter that the Cardinals made a serious run at one of the winter’s top free agents and came up short.  The other instance, of course, being their failed pursuit of David Price.

Here’s a roundup of reactions to Heyward’s massive new deal with the Cubs:

  • The Cubs’ signing of Jason Heyward has left the Cardinals feeling jilted, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Now, the Cardinals must move on and add at least one significant piece, Hochman opines.  The writer suggests that the Cards should sign Alex Gordon toplay right field or first base, with Stephen Piscotty playing the other.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports discussed Cubs president Theo Epstein, who now finds himself at the helm of baseball’s newest juggernaut.  Within the article, Rosenthal writes that rival execs say Epstein has long been fixated on Heyward, going back to his early days with the Braves.  Rosenthal also feels that the Cubs were motivated to sign Heyward and Lackey, in part, because they were effectively taking pieces away from the rival Cardinals.
  • Things have changed in Chicago, as evidenced by the free agent additions of Heyward, Lackey, and Ben Zobrist, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes.  Back in November, Epstein says that he didn’t envision the Cubs being able to do two deals in the range of $100MM this offseason.  Things quickly changed, however.
  • The Cubs now have a monster lineup headlined by Heyward, Phil Rogers of MLB.com writes.

Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke

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The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.

We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).

Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)

Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.

While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.

For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.

Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.

It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.

Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).

As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.

But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.

The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.

Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.

All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.

Cardinals Expected To Pursue Alex Gordon

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With Jason Heyward set to join the division-rival Cubs, the Cardinals are expected to make a push to add fellow free agent outfielder Alex Gordon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Of course, Gordon has also reportedly drawn interest from deep-pocketed clubs like the Giants, Angels, and others, so his market promises to be robust.

St. Louis has also been rumored to have some interest in slugger Chris Davis, who might not be seen as an outfielder but could still fit in St. Louis, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posits on Twitter that he could still be an option. Going for Gordon, meanwhile, might also leave the team with some free capacity to add a starter, Rosenthal suggests.

It should be noted that it remains entirely unclear whether the Cards will plan to reallocate any cash that might have gone to Heyward (or to David Price) directly back into free agency. After all, the organization has not traditionally been one of the biggest factors in free agency. And while, owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has said that the Cards will “stretch” in the right situation, it’s not clear whether any such opportunities remain.

Of course, Gordon promises to command a far more limited commitment than did Heyward and Price. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a $105MM commitment over five years, which is a hefty sum for a player who’ll soon turn 32 but is nowhere near the overall outlay needed to land the other two. It also still seems likely he’ll fall shy of Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes, the other top outfielders remaining on the market.

Jason Heyward Makes Decision; Cardinals Out, Nats Pessimistic

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11:54pm: Heyman tweets that the Nationals are believed to have offered about or exactly $200MM to Heyward.

11:52am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Cardinals are “out” on Heyward.

11:50am: Jason Heyward has made a decision on which team he’ll sign with, a source tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Goold writes that while the Cardinals were aggressive, it doesn’t sound like Heyward chose them. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that the Nationals aren’t optimistic about a deal, either. The Cubs are “very much in play,” says Goold, though no report has indicated that Chicago has agreed to terms with Heyward just yet.

Heyward was said recently to be nearing a decision, with the Cubs, Cardinals and Nationals as finalists. The Angels were, at one point, said to be a finalist also, and the Giants have been linked to him, though they reportedly never made a formal offer.

Johnny Cueto’s Agent On Cardinals, Market

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The Winter Meetings in Nashville are nearly through and many of the open market’s starting pitchers have found their homes for 2016 and beyond.  However, one of this class’s very best, Johnny Cueto, is still searching for his big payday.  Cueto is a bona fide ace with years of experience at the head of the Reds’ rotation, but a number of his expected suitors have already allocated major funds towards the top of the starting five.  Even though some might have the impression that Cueto’s market is shrinking, agent Bryce Dixon told MLB Trade Rumors in a 1-on-1 interview that he doesn’t see things that way.

“You can always add an ace pitcher to your staff.  All thirty teams can use a Cueto,” Dixon told MLBTR on Wednesday in Nashville, Tennessee. “So, yeah, there are teams like the Diamondbacks that have added a [Zack] Greinke and a [Shelby] Miller, so maybe their appetite for him has lessened but, no, I don’t view the market as shrinking up.  I’m still finding interest and there still seems to be enough out there for him to land comfortably with a team.”

So far, Cueto has yet to receive an offer that clearly separates him from the second tier of starting pitchers and Dixon says that he is comfortable in waiting.  A few weeks ago, Cueto’s camp was handed a sizable offer from the Diamondbacks, one that was worth $126MM over six years, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (on Twitter).  Some observers suggested that the offer was a strong one given Cueto’s second half issues and 50/50 showing in the postseason, but Dixon says that he did not discuss the offer at length with the pitcher before they turned it down.

Dixon concedes that the Diamondbacks are one club that does not have a clear fit for Cueto at this stage, but, on paper, the Cardinals do stand out as a team that would have the need and the resources required to sign the veteran.  Still, some outsiders have suggested that unpleasant history between the two sides could get in the way of a union.  In 2010, the Reds and Cardinals got into a brawl and, in one exchange, Cueto kicked catcher Jason LaRue in the head while wearing spikes.  The impact of the kick left LaRue with concussion issues that forced him to retire at the end of the 2010 season.  The brawl may still be fresh in the minds of some Cardinals fans, but the Cardinals organization has not brought up the incident in their talks with Cueto’s camp.

“I can’t speak to how the Cardinals feel. ..Obviously [Johnny] regrets how the fight went down,” Dixon told MLB Trade Rumors on Wednesday afternoon.  “He’s expressed regret over it in the past.  He loves pitching in the NL Central.  He’s the best pitcher of our era in the NL Central.  It would be a good marriage [between] Johnny and the Cardinals.  I think once the fans got past the fight and they saw what a gamer Johnny is and what he could bring to the team, I think they would be able to embrace him now, though I don’t think that they’ll do that overnight.”

Dixon went on to explain that the circumstances of the brawl were complicated.  Cueto was pushed up against the screen and, feeling trapped, he made a split-second reaction that he deeply regrets.  For a time, the fight may have defined him as someone who is angry or violent, but those who work with and around Cueto, he says, can attest to his mellow character and positive attitude.  Ultimately, Dixon can see the Cardinals being a great landing spot for his client.

“Johnny’s best friend is Brayan Pena (Pena signed a two-year deal with St. Louis this winter).  Johnny would love to pitch to him and a catcher like [Yadier] Molina, so I think it would be a good fit.  Whether the Cardinals step up with the necessary resources, that remains to be seen.  But he has no problem towards the Cardinals and the manager of that [2010 Cardinals] team [Tony La Russa] is with the Diamondbacks organization now.  He came down and met Johnny and they had no problem.  It’s in the past.  It’s unfortunate that it happened, but, on our side, we’ve moved on,” said Dixon.

Dixon could see Cueto forming a strong rotation alongside Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez, but he could also envision his client looking good in Dodger blue next to Clayton Kershaw in L.A.’s rotation.  Those are just two of the fits that Dixon can see for Cueto at this stage and he’s still willing to wait for what he feels is an appropriate pact.  When asked to put a timetable on a Cueto signing, Dixon indicated that it could happen in a matter of minutes or a matter of weeks.  One option he’s not considering at this time, however, is a one-year pillow deal to allow Cueto to cash in next winter.

“I don’t think we’re going to have to go down that road.  We’ll remain flexible but I don’t anticipate something like that,” he said.

Nationals “Serious Threat” To Land Heyward, Who Has $200MM Offer In Hand

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9:46pm: A source tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that the Nats are “heavily involved” and are making a “legit” effort to sign the young outfielder. He adds, interestingly, that Taylor “would become expendable” if a deal is struck.

From an analytical perspective, it seems plenty plausible that the team could add Heyward (or another outfielder) and keep Taylor. For one thing, there’s plenty of justification to give him further developmental time at Triple-A. For another, he’d still be an important depth piece in the near term and would have plenty of possibilities for increased playing time with the clock ticking on Werth’s contract (and perhaps also his time as a full-time regular).

7:24pm: Washington is a “serious threat” to land Heyward, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.

3:45pm: The Nationals are the “mystery team” pursuing free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. They are joined in the chase for Heyward by the Cubs and Cardinals, per the report.

It’s not known which of those clubs — if not another — is in the lead, but Heyman adds in another tweet that Heyward has at least one offer at or over $200MM on the table. That’s not exactly surprising, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Heyward would reach the double-century mark, but does appear to suggest that he’ll be in position to maximize his potential market value.

Heyward’s youth and broad skillset make him a tantalizing target even for clubs that otherwise seem set in the outfield, as I explained in breaking down Heyward’s free agent case in late October. He’s a very good, but not great, hitter who has never returned to the power ceiling he showed earlier in his career. But he’s at the top of the class in basically every other area.

It’s possible that Washington would utilize Heyward in center field were he to land there, Heyman suggests. While the team has youngster Michael A. Taylor lined up to take over there, he’s still raw. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that veteran Jayson Werth has only two years left on his deal and could ultimately stand to receive added rest given his nagging injuries over the years. While trades could be considered in the wake of a signing, it’s also possible to imagine Heyward splitting his time up the middle and in the corner for some time as the teams waits to see what happens with its other options.

Cardinals Sign Jonathan Broxton To Two-Year Deal

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The Cardinals announced that they’ve signed right-hander Jonathan Broxton to a two-year contract to return to the St. Louis bullpen. Broxton, a Jet Sports client, will earn a $7.5MM guarantee and receive full no-trade protection, per reports.

Aug 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Jonathan Broxton against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Broxton is still just 31 years of age. And he still averages better than 94 mph on his fastball

Last year was rough in terms of bottom line results — the veteran ended with a 4.62 ERA — but that doesn’t tell the whole story. For one, Broxton’s peripherals showed that he’d been a bit unlucky leading up to a mid-season trade from the Brewers to the Cardinals. For another, Broxton produced a 2.66 earned run average over the 23 2/3 frames he logged with St. Louis.

In the aggregate, Broxton showed that he’s still plenty capable of providing valuable innings from the pen. Though his walks actually trended up in the latter part of the year, Broxton managed to strike out more than a batter per inning for the first time since way back in 2010. Then, there’s the fact that FIP (3.65), xFIP (3.24), and SIERA (3.15) all saw him as a quality producer.

St. Louis already bet on Broxton once with the mid-season trade, and now it’s doubled down after initially declining a $9MM option over the former closer. It seems likely that the veteran could have achieved a greater guarantee elsewhere, given the fact that his deal includes the kind of no-trade protection that we don’t typically see in a short-term deal (let alone one for a reliever).

But the match worked last year, and the Cards obviously felt another sturdy arm was needed in the pen. Broxton will join Jordan Walden and Seth Maness as right-handed set-up options in front of closer Trevor Rosenthal.

KMOX’s Tom Ackerman first reported (on Twitter) that the agreement was in place. Devan Fink first tweeted the contract details. 

Cubs, Cardinals, Angels Among Finalists For Jason Heyward

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2:29pm: MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez hears that the Angels aren’t seriously involved in the market for Heyward at this point (or for any top outfielder, for that matter), though he does add that said stance can change quickly (Twitter link).

1:31pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that Heyward isn’t looking for a 10-year deal in the $200MM range as has oft been speculated, but rather something more like eight or nine years at $24MM per season (Twitter link).

1:17pm: The Angels are also among the finalists for Heyward, reports Morosi (via Twitter).

11:37am: Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said he hasn’t been given any sort of indication as to the timing of a Heyward decision, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

10:00am: Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets that the Giants checked in with Heyward but never got to the point of making an offer. There’s a sense in Nashville that Heyward will come off the board today, Pavlovic adds.

9:34am: Talks between Jason Heyward and interested parties are beginning to progress, according to Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports report (Twitter link). The Cubs and Cardinals are among the finalists, per the report, but there are other yet-unnamed clubs in the mix for Heyward’s services.

Heyward’s name has come up most frequently in connection to the Cardinals and Cubs as of late, though he’s also been linked to the Angels and Giants in various reports, as each club could use a left-handed corner bat. The Giants, in particular, were said to prefer Heyward to some of the other bats on the market at present due to his glovework, though it remains to be seen if they’ll be among the top bidders in the end.

Giants, Cardinals Interested In Wei-Yin Chen

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The Giants and Cardinals are both interested in left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, who calls the Royals another possible fit and says the Nationals may take a look at Chen if they don’t sign Mike Leake (a deal between the Nats and Leake is said to be unlikely at this point).

Chen, 30, is coming off a nice four-year run with the Orioles which was highlighted by a particularly strong two-year platform in 2014-15. Over the past two seasons, he’s logged a 3.44 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 to go along with a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 377 innings of work. A move to any of the clubs listed could benefit Chen’s production, as he’s struggled with home runs in the American League East (career 1.24 HR/9). The Giants and Royals, in particular, play in spacious parks that tend to suppress home runs.

St. Louis offers, in my eyes, the best mix of both need and financial capability of the listed clubs. The Giants have already inked Jeff Samardzija — though they’re still connected to other arms and could bring in a second starter — while the Royals have a number of needs and have never spent the type of money which Chen figures to command. (MLBTR projected a five-year, $80MM contract.) Then again, Kansas City has a good relationship with Chen’s agent, Scott Boras, and the reigning World Champs could use a boost in the rotation.

Johnny Cueto remains the top arm on the market, but Chen is joined by Leake and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda as one of the more intriguing arms remaining in free agency. To this point, he’s also been linked to the Cubs, whereas a return to the Orioles has been deemed unlikely. Earlier today, MLBTR’s Zach Links was on hand when Boras held court at Nashville’s Winter Meetings. Boras characterized Chen’s market as “strong” and, as Zach noted, made one of the types of comments we’ve come to expect of Boras over the years, noting that Chen’s ERA within the AL East over the past two seasons is lower than that of David Price.

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