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Reactions To The Mike Leake Deal

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After spending much of the offseason searching for a rotation upgrade, the Cardinals got the job done on Tuesday when they signed Mike Leake to a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $80MM.  The deal, which includes a mutual option that can boost the deal to $93-94MM and a full no-trade clause, gives the Cardinals some much-needed support on the backend of their starting five.  This offseason, St. Louis lost right-hander John Lackey to free agency and right-hander Lance Lynn will be out after getting Tommy John surgery.

Here’s a look at some of the reactions to Leake’s hefty payday:

  • Leake had discussions with teams about doing a three-year deal at $20MM per season with opt-outs after each year, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com hears (on Twitter).  Ultimately, however, Leake signed on for a guaranteed average annual value of $16MM over five seasons.
  • The Leake signing includes a hidden benefit for the Cardinals, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes.  Leake did not cost the Cards a draft pick since the mid-season deal sending him to San Francisco made him ineligible for a qualifying offer.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, picked up an additional two picks when they lost Lackey and Jason Heyward to the Cubs in free agency.  Teams generally view a late-first round pick as being worth $5-8MM, sources tell Rosenthal, so the net cost for signing Leake might be something closer to $72-75MM for St. Louis.
  • Leake’s consistency and durability make him ideal fit for the Cardinals, Keith Law of ESPN.com writes (Insider sub. req’d).  Law argues that Leake’s deal is about the going rate for a league-average starter right now but his ability to eat up innings and induce ground balls make him an ideal fit for the Cards.  Leake has made over 30 starts in each of the last four seasons  and has never suffered an arm injury.  The Cardinals need an innings eater badly and ground ball pitching is something that they value highly, Law writes.
  • The $80MM deal might seem steep at first glance, but Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs took a stab at justifying it for St. Louis.  Among the arguments made is that Leake is only 28 years of age.  He was one of the youngest free agent hurlers available this winter and unlike other available under-30 pitchers, Leake has a history of being dependable.
  • On Wednesday, MLB Trade Rumors’ Instagram account unveiled a sneak peak at what Leake will look like in his new jersey.

Outrighted: Rondon, Monell, Cunniff, Robertson

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In addition  to the large number of minor signings and waiver claims today, there have been quite a few outrights from around the league. Righty A.J. Achter has already been outrighted by the Angels, but here are the rest of the day’s outright assignments…

  • The Pirates have outrighted right-hander Jorge Rondon to Triple-A Indianapolis. While Rondon hadn’t been previously designated for assignment, the Buccos needed to clear a roster spot to make way for John Jaso and his new two-year contract, and Rondon was the 40-man casualty. Rondon carried a 2.23 ERA over 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year, with 7.4 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He was once rated among the top thirty prospects of the Cardinals, and has a track record of solid, if unspectacular, numbers in the minors.
  • The Mets have outrighted catcher Johnny Monell to Triple-A Las Vegas, according to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin (Twitter link). Monell was designated for assignment last week when the team needed a roster spot for the recently re-signed Bartolo Colon. Monell, 30 next March, received his second taste of Major League action last season, collecting a career-high 52 plate appearances with New York. Prior to that, his lone experience in the big leagues was a brief eight-game stint with the 2013 Giants (nine plate appearances). In the Majors, Monell is a .161/230/.196 hitter across his small sample of 61 PAs, but he has a sound track record in the minors, where he’s put together a .279/.356/.455 batting line with 31 homers across 1012 PAs in Triple-A.
  • Right-hander Brandon Cunniff has been outrighted to Triple-A Gwinnett by the Braves after clearing waivers, according to a tweet from the team. A former 27th-round draft pick by the Marlins, Cunniff spent three seasons in the independent Frontier League following his brief minor league career with the Marlins. The Braves plucked him from the indy circuit in June of 2013, and he rather quickly rose through their ranks over the past two years. Cunniff posted a brilliant 2.02 ERA in Double-A and jumped directly to the Majors, where he posted a 4.63 ERA with a 37-to-22 K/BB ratio in 35 innings.
  • MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets that outfielder Daniel Robertson has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A by the Mariners after being designated for assignment last week. Robertson lost his roster spot to the re-signed Hisashi Iwakuma but is clearly a player valued by GM Jerry Dipoto, who acquired him from Texas while serving as GM of the Angels and again picked him up from the Halos this winter after taking over the Mariners’ GM job. In 277 career plate appearances, Robertson is a .274/.324/.325 hitter. He also boasts a solid minor league track record and is capable of playing all three outfield positions, making him a valuable depth option for a big league team.

Rosenthal On Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals

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After discussing the Mets’ budget-conscious offseason spending thus far — and questioning the team’s choice of an apparently conservative route after a run to the World Series last year — Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports runs through a variety of notes from around the league. Here are some highlights:

  • Even as the Dodgers pursue Kenta Maeda, the team is continuing to show interest in Scott Kazmir, per Rosenthal — despite an already heavily left-handed rotation. And there is some sentiment among rival executives that L.A. could make a play for yet another southpaw, Wei-Yin Chen.
  • The Giants remain unlikely to play at the top of the free agent outfield market, according to the report, but might look at the next level down. Two names in play are Dexter Fowler and Gerardo Parra, with another possibility being the addition of a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for Gregor Blanco. San Francisco is also in communication with the Rockies on their outfielders, Rosenthal’s colleague Jon Morosi reports.
  • The Cardinals did not sign Mike Leake with intentions of spinning off another starter for outfield help, says Rosenthal. As he notes in another post, signing Leake — while allowing John Lackey to walk — came with some draft benefits, as the club didn’t have to sacrifice a pick to add the former and will gain a selection for losing the latter.

Free Agent Notes: Kazmir, Murphy, Span, Royals

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Now that the Cardinals have signed right-hander Mike Leake to a five-year deal, they’re out of the mix on lefty Scott Kazmir, tweets CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. The Nationals, Orioles and Royals are among the clubs still looking at Kazmir, according to Heyman. A report from Monday indicated that the Athletics and Astros were also among the finalists for Kazmir, who reportedly has received three-year offers that come with annual rates in the $12-13MM range. However, Kazmir’s hope is said to be a four-year contract. Earlier tonight, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun wrote that he didn’t foresee the O’s going four years on Kazmir (or any other free-agent starter, for that matter).

A few more notes on what is still a very deep class of free agents…

  • Daniel Murphy hasn’t been aggressive in seeking new opportunities for much of the offseason, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post, as he maintained hope that he would return to the Mets right up until their acquisition of Neil Walker from the Pirates. The Mets, according to Puma, were clear in telling Murphy that they intended to go in another direction this offseason, but Murphy sought more than the one- to two-year offers with which the Mets were comfortable and seems to have been hoping that an increased offer from the Mets would materialize.
  • Agent Scott Boras has been seeking a three-year deal for client Denard Span, industry sources tell Puma in a second column. The Mets had genuine interest in Span, according to Puma, but they weren’t keen on committing to a center field partner for Juan Lagares beyond the 2016 season. Beyond that, the Mets didn’t want to wait for Span’s January showcase before moving to add a left-handed bat, as doing so would’ve meant risking their alternative options signing elsewhere in the interim.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore wouldn’t comment to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan when asked about negotiations with Alex Gordon — specifically, Jim Bowden’s previous report at ESPN that the Royals are offering $12-13MM per year on a four-year deal — or extension talks with catcher Salvador Perez. Moore did, however, openly voice his desire to add a corner outfielder and another starting pitcher. “We feel we have quality depth in the outfield, but we have a desire for an experienced corner outfielder. And we would like another quality starting pitcher,” said Moore. Per Flanagan, the Royals hope to have seven or eight players that are viable rotation options on the roster to open the season. At present, Kansas City has Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Danny Duffy, Chris Young and Kris Medlen as options, plus lefty Jason Vargas recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Cardinals, Mike Leake Nearing Agreement

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TUESDAY, 9:23am: It’s possible that a deal could be reached by the end of today, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets.  The deal with the Cardinals is expected to be in the five-year, $75MM range and could include an option, a source tells Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (on Twitter).

The Cardinals gave Leake a strong offer last week and have been waiting for a resolution, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets.  Multiple sources also tell him that a deal is getting close.

8:50am: The Cardinals and Leake are close to agreement on a deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

MONDAY, 10:45pm: Leake is aiming for a five-year deal, per Cotillo (Twitter link).

10:10pm: There’s a “growing belief” that free agent Mike Leake will be signing somewhere very soon, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. The Cardinals, he adds, appear to be a strong contender for his services.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams profiled Leake recently, explaining that his market appeal lies in a combination of age, health, the lack of a qualifying offer, and solid production.  Both Adams and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes have predicted five-year, $80MM contract for Leake, placing him among the 15 or so free agents with the greatest expected earning power.

Recently, the Dodgers were mentioned as a possibility for Leake after their agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma was 86’d.  It’s not clear if the Astros have had substantive talks with Leake’s reps, but they do appear to be a fit for a veteran starter like Leake.  Leake reportedly was ready to give a hometown discount to the D’Backs, but Tony La Russa recently called that match “probably unlikely” to happen.  The Cardinals have been a logical landing spot for Leake all winter long, but some speculated that his asking price could be too rich for their blood.

In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA.  That marks three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings.  All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park.  Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate.  Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.

Though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career.  He landed on the DL late in the 2010 season with right shoulder fatigue but avoided the DL for the next five years, until a hamstring injury sidelined him for about two weeks in August.  He dealt with some forearm tightness at season’s end, but it wasn’t serious and didn’t lead to major concern.

However, in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.

Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.

NL Central Notes: Melancon, Cardinals, Leake

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Free agent starter Mike Leake could be on the verge of signing somewhere soon.  The Cardinals are believed to be a leading suitor for him, though it’s not clear if that will be his landing spot this winter.  So far, we’ve seen multiple logical destinations for Leake fall out of the picture for various reasons.

Leake reportedly would have given the D’Backs a sizable discount in order to pitch close to home in Arizona, but Tony La Russa called that match “probably unlikely” to happen after the Shelby Miller acquisition.  The Giants could have moved to retain Leake, but that’s no longer a real possibility after signing two high-priced free agent starters.  At this stage of free agency, the Cardinals certainly appear to be one of the best fits for the 28-year-old.

Here’s today’s look at the NL Central:

  • Could the Pirates still move Mark Melancon this winter?  Adam Berry of MLB.com asked Pirates GM Neal Huntington about what the Charlie Morton trade means for Melancon’s future in Pittsburgh.  “We’ve never had to trade Mark,” Huntington replied. “It’s always been [a question of] if we’re better with him with us, or if we think it’s a better move for the organization to move him elsewhere, and that still applies.”  In short, Berry feels that the Bucs are likely to keep Melancon, though they won’t say no if they’re blown away with the perfect offer.
  • The free agent market has shifted to a tier including the likes of Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen, but the Cardinals are only really interested in the first two because of their aversion to giving up a draft pick, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Between Leake and Kazmir, the Cards are probably more interested in Leake.  Leake is younger, has proven himself to be a strong pitcher in the NL, and has been one of the best hitting pitchers in the league as well.  Leake batted quite well early in his career, and while he had his worst season at the plate in 2015, he’s an overall .212/.235/.310 hitter in the Majors.  That’s obviously not good, relative to the rest of the league, but it’s not bad for a pitcher.
  • Do the Cardinals really need to sign a pitcher to anything more than a one-year deal given the arms they already have in-house?  Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com says the Cardinals feel that you can never have too much pitching and therefore they are not ruling out a multi-year deal for a strong starter.  The Cardinals could find themselves with a pitching logjam in 2017 thanks, in part, to Lance Lynn’s return, but the Cards are also aware that Lynn and Jaime Garcia will be free agents after that season.  It might make sense for the Cardinals to deal with a bit of a logjam in ’17 in order to have options beyond that campaign.

 

Latest On Scott Kazmir’s Market

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Over the weekend, the Royals and A’s were among the clubs linked to free-agent lefty Scott Kazmir, and this morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale calls those two teams, along with the Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals and Astros the finalists for Kazmir (links to Twitter). That’s a fairly lengthy list of finalists, of course, and with so many clubs in the mix, it’s not entirely surprising to see Nightengale add that no deal is imminent.

On Friday, it was reported that Kazmir has received multiple three-year offers in the range of $12-13MM per season. With a number of comparable offers of that nature already in hand, Kazmir may very well be holding out for a fourth guaranteed season or, at least, a notable increase in average annual value. Of the listed clubs, only Oakland has added arms to its rotation picture this offseason (Rich Hill and, reportedly, Henderson Alvarez, though his deal has yet to be announced by the club). The Royals struck a deal to retain right-hander Chris Young but haven’t penciled in a replacement for the departed Johnny Cueto just yet. The Astros have been more focused on their bullpen and parted with a significant package to pry Ken Giles away from the Phillies. The Cardinals made a significant run at David Price but ultimately came up short, while Baltimore’s focus has been on Chris Davis. The Nationals have pursued both Jason Heyward and Mike Leake this winter — the former more aggressively than the latter — but didn’t sign either (Leake remains a free agent) and have lost Jordan Zimmermann to the Tigers. Any of the involved parties stands out as a reasonable fit for Kazmir, though from a financial standpoint, if one club is to separate itself from the others, the Athletics and Royals seem less likely to do so than their reported competitors for Kazmir, if history is any indication.

Kazmir, 32 in a month, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland. A fourth guaranteed season for him could understandably be cause for hesitation among interested clubs, as he comes with quite a lengthy injury history and has wilted somewhat late in each of the past two seasons. However, he’s also a more affordable alternative to five-year hopefuls Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake. And, unlike some of his competition (Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy), Kazmir won’t require a signing club to forfeit a draft pick.

NL Central Notes: Heyward, Cubs, Cardinals, McCutchen

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Jason Heyward says one reason he chose the Cubs over the Cardinals is that the Cubs’ young core is likely to be with the team longer than the Cardinals’ core is. “You have Yadier (Molina), who is going to be done in two years maybe. You have Matt Holliday, who is probably going to be done soon,” Heyward told reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. “I felt like if I was to look up in three years and see a completely different team, that would kind of be difficult.” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny says he believes in the core of his team and takes issue with Heyward’s comments, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. “I don’t blame him. But I don’t like it,” says Matheny. “I don’t think we have anything to apologize for in having a group like a Holliday, a Molina, a Wainwright. … [H]e’s a young player. But I can’t say I’m in any kind of agreement with that (Chicago) core being better than any kind of core that we have.” Here’s more from the NL Central.

  • Elsewhere in Hummel’s article, Cards GM John Mozeliak expresses a bit of frustration that the Cardinals’ biggest offseason targets — presumably players like Heyward and David Price — opted to head elsewhere. “Our success has really come from our pipeline, and I think we’re really going to lean on that. The last month has been trying to play in the big-boy pool, and unfortunately we just didn’t end up getting it done,” says Mozeliak. “Sometimes it’s not always about what you’re doing. You need the other party to want to be there, too.”
  • Jason Heyward’s mammoth deal with the Cubs got some reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, wondering how much it might cost a club to sign Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen if he reaches the open market after the 2018 season.  For his part, McCutchen doesn’t want to speculate on his own dollar value, but he did reaffirm his loyalty to Pittsburgh. “This is still a place I do want to be,” McCutchen said. “I love it here. If that’s something that they can do, that’s something they can do. I really can’t answer from their end. We’ll see what happens in the future.”  Of course, as Brink points out, Heyward in 2015 and McCutchen in 2018 are two separate cases.  Heyward got his monster contract, in part, because he is only 26 years of age.  Following the 2018 season, McCutchen will be 32.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

International Signings/Moves: Kuroda, Pino, Davies, Cardinals, Stults

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Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times passes on a Sponichi report (Twitter link) noting that former Dodgers/Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda will earn $4.9MM in 2016 on his latest one-year deal with the Hiroshima Carp. That, as Hernandez notes, makes Kuroda the highest-paid player in Japan. Kuroda, who will turn 41 in February, returned to Japan last year for what many believed would be his final season. However, the veteran showed no signs of his age, reeling off a 2.55 ERA in 169 2/3 innings across 26 starts and averaging 5.6 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. The strong campaign marked another impressive chapter in Kuroda’s exceptional career, which now spans 19 seasons between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball. The upcoming season will be his 20th as a professional, and to this point, he has a lifetime 193-176 record, a 3.53 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 1.22 WHIP in 3202 2/3 innings.

Here are a few signings/moves pertaining to Japan and Korea…

  • Right-hander Yohan Pino has signed a one-year deal with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization, the club announced (hat tip: Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). The soon-to-be 32-year-old Pino, a client of agent Steve Comte, logged 79 2/3 innings over the past two Major League seasons between the Twins and the Royals (spending more time on the mound with the former but enjoying better results with the latter). He owns a 4.63 ERA with averages of 7.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 as a big leaguer, and he’s also compiled a 4.38 ERA in 494 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level in his career. This will be his first stint with an Asian team.
  • Via NPB Tracker’s Patrick Newman (Twitter link), the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball have considered signing right-handers Kyle Davies and Josh Lueke as well as lefty Luis Perez. Newman initially cited a Japanese-language report indicating Yakult had signed the trio, but now indicates that report was incorrect. Davies has the most Major League experience of the bunch, having totaled 768 innings with the Royals and Braves from 2005-11. Davis returned to the Majors this past season, tossing 2 1/3 innings for the Yankees. Though he’s been around for quite some time, Davies will pitch nearly all of next season at age 32, so he could potentially have several relatively lucrative years ahead of him if he thrives in NPB.
  • The Cardinals announced that they have sold the rights to right-hander Zach Petrick to NPB’s DeNA Yokohama Bay Stars (Twitter link). St. Louis will receive cash considerations (the exact amount has yet to be reported) for surrendering the 26-year-old Petrick, who will be better-compensated pitching in Japan’s top league than he would have been in the minor leagues here. Petrick breezed through the minor leagues and posted strong ERA marks until reaching Triple-A, where he’s struggled a bit over the past two seasons, registering a 4.56 ERA with 6.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in 272 1/3 innings. Originally signed as an undrafted free agent, Petrick rose to No. 15 on Baseball America’s list of Top 30 prospects following the 2013 season, with BA praising his sinking fastball, above-average changeup and repeatable mechanics, which led to strong command.
  • Left-hander Eric Stults will either pitch in Japan this season or retire, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (on Twitter). It’s not clear exactly whether Stults has a concrete offer from a Japanese club, although that does seem to be the implication. Stults made eight starts for the Braves in 2015 and has recorded 683 1/3 innings at the Major League level, working to a 4.24 ERA. His best years came with the 2013-14 Padres, when he was a staple in the team’s rotation and delivered 379 2/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball.

Cardinals Discussing Starting Pitcher Trade With Rays

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The Cardinals and Rays are discussing a trade that would send a starting pitcher from Tampa to St. Louis, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. Morosi does not say who that pitcher might be, but notes that Jake Odorizzi grew up not far from St. Louis. This wouldn’t be the first time Odorizzi’s name has come up in trade rumors this week — the Rays have reportedly recently talked to the Dodgers about him.

The Cardinals can use starting pitching help — Lance Lynn will miss the season after having Tommy John surgery, and John Lackey has headed to the Cubs. The Cards have seen several top free agent starting pitchers to whom they’ve been connected this offseason head to other teams. They’ve also lost a crucial position player, Jason Heyward, to the Cubs, causing them to lose ground against a key divisional rival.

Odorizzi, still just 25, posted a 3.35 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 169 1/3 innings in an excellent second full season in Tampa Bay. If in fact Odorizzi is the pitcher the Rays and Cardinals are discussing, the Rays would surely seek a steep return — he isn’t even eligible for arbitration until after next season and can’t become a free agent until after 2019, so there appears to be no urgency for the Rays to trade him. Odorizzi and the Rays have also recently had extension talks, although the progress of those talks is unclear. Of course, if the Cardinals are pursuing a pitcher other than Odorizzi, the Rays have other starters who would likely command significant value, including Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.

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