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Cardinals May Wait On Goldschmidt Extension Talks Until Season Begins

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Paul Goldschmidt is entering the last season of the five-year, $130MM extension he signed with the Cardinals back in March 2019, so the star first baseman is on pace to hit agency at age 37.  Team president of baseball operations John Mozeliak addressed Goldschmidt’s future when talking with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X) and other reporters today at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-up fan event, and Mozeliak indicated that contract talks might be held off until beyond Opening Day.

“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts.  You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.

Reports surfaced last month about the Cards’ interest in retaining Goldschmidt, with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noting that talks might well last into the season, even if the team’s preference was to have Goldschmidt locked up in advance of Opening Day.  In that sense, Mozeliak’s comments today don’t represent a huge shift in the Cardinals’ overall plan to keep Goldschmidt, yet as Jones notes, a lack of talks at all during Spring Training is perhaps “telling” about both the club’s long-term belief in Goldschmidt and/or the Cards’ own ability to contend.

Goldschmidt hit .268/.363/.447 with 25 home runs over 687 plate appearances last season, translating to a 122 wRC+.  These are obviously still very solid numbers, particularly for a player in his age-35 season, yet it did represent a dropoff from Goldschmidt’s NL MVP production (.317/.404/.578 with 35 homers, 176 wRC+) in 2022.  The 122 mark is actually the third-lowest wRC+ Goldschmidt has posted in his 13 Major League seasons, which might be more of a sign of how great he has been over a Cooperstown-level career than a sign of any true regression.

That said, if a player is even able to keep playing at a high level until his late 30’s, sharp and sudden declines aren’t uncommon.  It could be that the Cardinals are just exercising a bit more caution in seeing how Goldschmidt proceeds over the first couple of months before deciding whether or not to make another pricey commitment, even if the first baseman’s next deal will be shorter than five years in length.

The other financial element involved is the Cardinals’ broadcasting contract with Bally Sports Midwest, and parent company Diamond Sports.  While the Cards’ deal runs through the 2032 season, Diamond Sports’ declaration of bankruptcy last year has left the Cardinals as one of the many teams in a state of uncertainty about their TV futures, and the Bally Sports broadcasts might cease once the 2024 campaign is complete.

Discussions about the situation remain ongoing between Diamond Sports and Major League Baseball, though until some resolution is in sight, St. Louis might be keeping spending in check.  Club president Bill DeWitt III said earlier this week that might not have much or any remaining payroll space for any significant moves this offseason, and it stands to reason that those restraints might stretch into any big expenditures on Goldschmidt or others beyond 2024.

The Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing 71-91 record last season is also certainly a factor, and it seems possible that the wait-and-see approach to an extension is shared by both the team and Goldschmidt himself.  If he has any doubts about St. Louis’ ability to quickly return to contention, Goldschmidt might prefer to enter free agency and seek out a new deal with a more clear-cut contender for 2025.  From the front office’s perspective, if the Cardinals get off to a rough start and might look to again sell at the trade deadline, Goldschmidt would stand out as a big trade chip that could be dealt.  Goldschmidt holds full no-trade protection, though if St. Louis is indeed out of the pennant race by midseason, he might welcome a deadline move to a contender.

St. Louis has around $178MM on the books for 2024 and around $102.7MM currently projected for the 2025 payroll, according to Roster Resource.  Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras, and Steven Matz are the only Cardinals on guaranteed deals through at least 2025, as Goldschmidt can be a free agent, and Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Giovanny Gallegos are signed through 2024 with club options for 2025.

MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
  • Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals’ President Discusses Payroll Outlook

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The Cardinals were among the offseason’s most aggressive teams early. St. Louis signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn within the winter’s first couple weeks. That accomplished their goal of bringing in three veteran starters. Things have been quiet since November, as they’ve traded away Tyler O’Neill and swapped outfielder Richie Palacios for middle reliever Andrew Kittredge.

It seems St. Louis’ early flurry on the rotation front will represent the main part of their offseason activity. St. Louis president Bill DeWitt III tells John Denton of MLB.com the club doesn’t anticipate taking on much more payroll this offseason. While DeWitt left open the possibility for reinvesting in the MLB roster after subtracting some amount of money in trade, he implied they’re near the limit of their financial comfort zone.

“Look, I think we’re always open to improving our club within reason, but, you know, we’ve already made some big moves,” DeWitt told Denton. “With payroll, it has to be thought of in the context of the whole business with all the investments we’re making in other aspects of the product on the field. … So, we are making a pretty big push by raising payroll and having revenues somewhat challenged (a reference to the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy that could impact their local broadcasting deal with Bally Sports Midwest). It’s actually quite a commitment. Now, is there a little more room there? It depends on the deal.”

That the Cardinals are near their spending target doesn’t come as a major surprise. Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2024 player payroll around $177MM. That’s almost exactly where they opened the 2023 campaign, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak essentially declared at the outset of the offseason that the Cards would have a similar starting payroll in ’24 as they did a year ago.

It’s fair to wonder if the organization has done enough to get back to playoff competitiveness. Lynn is a rebound candidate after giving up 44 home runs. Gibson has been a reliable innings-eater but typically turns in back-of-the-rotation results. Gray should be a significant upgrade, but the Cardinals entered last season with Jordan Montgomery and still didn’t have nearly enough starting pitching.

As things stand, it looks as if they’ll open next year with a rotation comprising Gray, Miles Mikolas, Gibson, Lynn and Steven Matz. Young left-handers Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore could push Matz for a rotation spot. The Cardinals could still look for a lower-cost addition to the relief corps to deepen the group in front of Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley.

Cardinals Hire Chaim Bloom For Advisory Role

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4:50pm: Mozeliak describes Bloom’s role as “more of a part-time role, an advisory role,” per John Denton of MLB.com. Mozeliak added that Bloom isn’t relocating to St. Louis but will be present at Spring Training and join the team for home and road games.

2:45pm: The Cardinals announced that they have hired Chaim Bloom as an advisor to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. Katie Woo of The Athletic reported the hiring prior to the official club announcement.

Bloom, 40, was the chief baseball officer of the Red Sox until he was fired in September. He was connected to the Cardinals in November and also received some interest from the Marlins to run their front office, but he will wind up with the Cards. Though he will be working with Mozeliak, it’s unclear exactly how involved he will be with the day-to-day operations of the club. Chris Cotillo of MassLive relays that it’s believed Bloom prefers a remote role that will allow him to stay in Boston.

Bloom’s tenure running the Red Sox led to mixed results. It seems as though he was given lesser budgets than the previous front offices in Boston, as Mookie Betts and David Price were traded to the Dodgers in early 2020, a few months after Bloom was hired towards the end of 2019. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox had payrolls above $230MM in 2018 and 2019 but have averaged under $190MM in the past three years.

The club finished last in the American League East in three of the last four seasons, with a surprise trip to the postseason in 2021 sandwiched in between. The farm system made some strides while Bloom was there, though the extent of its strength is subjective, like most matters involving prospects. Baseball America recently ranked Boston’s farm fifth in the league and FanGraphs second, but MLB Pipeline had them down at #16.

On the big league side, there were mixed results. Modest signings of Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen, Adam Duvall, Michael Wacha and Justin Turner generally worked out well, but the big swings didn’t really land. The Sox seemed far more bullish on players like Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida relative to the rest of the industry and those deals haven’t worked out well so far. The club also made the strange decision to trade Christian Vázquez and Jake Diekman at the 2022 trade deadline but hold onto Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez and others, ultimately finishing the year in last place but with a competitive balance tax figure that was just barely over the lowest threshold. By finishing just over the line, their draft pick compensation was reduced when Bogaerts and Eovaldi rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.

All of that may be moot, depending on the specifics of Bloom’s role. Prior to joining the Red Sox, he spent over a decade working with the Rays. That club developed a strong reputation for player development while Bloom was there, jumping to the forefront of analytics in order to compete with clubs that feature much larger budgets. Whether that is part of his role with the Cardinals or not, he brings a couple of decades of baseball experience to the club, having served in various roles around the sport. In addition to his time with the Red Sox and Rays, he also worked for the league, for the Padres and spent many years writing for Baseball Prospectus.

When front office executives find themselves between jobs, it’s not uncommon to see them land an advisory gig such as this as a sort of placeholder. Bloom can do a bit of work and collect a paycheck in the meantime. If an opportunity arises to rejoin a club as a general manager or president of baseball operations, his gig with the Cardinals shouldn’t leave him so committed that he can’t pursue it.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals have spent their offseason focused on adding pitching, having already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to fill out the club’s rotation while trading for Andrew Kittredge, Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to bolster their bullpen depth. In a recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed St. Louis’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Regarding the bullpen, Woo notes that while the Cardinals have been active in the free agent relief market this offseason, the club doesn’t appear to be interested in a major addition like relief ace Josh Hader, instead preferring to shop in the lower tiers of the market. Woo relays that the club hopes to add another reliever to their bullpen with a contract in the range of around $5MM annually. She also notes that the club had interest in a reunion with right-hander Chris Stratton, who the club landed alongside Jose Quintana in a deal with the Pirates at the 2022 trade deadline before flipping him to the Rangers alongside Jordan Montgomery last summer, before the veteran inked a two-year, $8MM deal with the Royals.

Of course, it’s important to note that this report from Woo was published before the Cardinals and Rays got together on a trade to send veteran righty Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis yesterday afternoon. Kittredge is projected for a salary of just $2.3MM in 2024 by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Given the righty’s modest projected salary, it’s possible that his addition wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cardinals from making another relief addition, whether by free agency or trade. At the same time, Woo indicates that the club is “high” on its internal relief corps and could look to make only one more addition, which the Kittredge deal would account for. If St. Louis does dip into the free agent relief market, Woo indicates that lefty Matt Moore and right-hander Phil Maton could be in the club’s price range this winter.

Each of Stratton, Moore, and Maton have been valuable bullpen pieces for contending clubs in recent years, though neither Stratton nor Maton have posted the sort of elite numbers that would make them clear back-end arms like Hader or former Cardinal Jordan Hicks; Maton has a 3.67 ERA since joining the Astros midway through the 2021 season, while Stratton has posted a 3.92 ERA over the past three seasons. Moore, by contrast, has posted a fantastic 2.20 ERA and respectable 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings the past two seasons, making him one of the more effective set-up options on the market. With that being said, the lefty is entering his age-35 campaign in 2024 and seems unlikely to land a longer-term commitment from interested clubs. The Cardinals have also reportedly expressed interest in Ryan Brasier, who struggled badly (7.29 ERA) with the Red Sox earlier in the 2023 campaign before dominating (0.70 ERA) down the stretch with the Dodgers last season.

While it’s not entirely clear what the Cardinals’ bullpen plans are following the addition of Kittredge, Woo indicates that the club is likely done adding to its rotation this winter. She writes that a reunion with Montgomery or a deal for another top free agent starter like Shota Imanaga or Blake Snell is “incredibly unlikely” as the club doesn’t have interest in offering a nine-figure contract this winter, a benchmark each of the aforementioned southpaws appears likely to surpass. While Woo acknowledges that the club’s front office could explore trades for starting pitching, she describes the pursuits as “neither a high priority nor highly likely” to result in an addition this winter. Right-handers Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have both been seen as likely trade candidates this offseason, while the likes of Corbin Burnes and Jesus Luzardo have occasionally seen their names floated in the rumor mill as well. The Cards have been loosely connected to Cease recently but otherwise haven’t come up often as a potential suitor for a starter in the rumor mill this winter.

It would be something of a surprise if Kittredge proved to be the club’s final pitching addition this winter. After all, the Cardinals noted that they planned to add “at least two” relievers this offseason in addition to their goal of adding three starters, which they completed by adding Gray, Gibson, and Lynn. By contrast, Kittredge is the only relief arm they’ve added to this point with a substantial track record in the majors. While the likes of Robertson, minor league signing Wilking Rodriguez and Rule 5 draftee Ryan Fernandez all provide depth, none of them figure to be the sort of reliable source of quality production the Cardinals lacked in 2023.

If the Cardinals do come up short in their goal of adding multiple relievers to their bullpen mix, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have done enough to put themselves back into contention in the NL Central after finishing fifth in their division with a 91-loss campaign in 2023. While the club is surely hoping for rebound seasons from veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt to lift the offense, the club’s pitching staff was primarily the cause of St. Louis’s difficult season last year. Cardinals starters posted a 5.08 ERA in the rotation last year that ranked fifth-worst in the majors, while their bullpen was the eighth-worst by that same metric.

The addition of Gray to the club’s rotation figures to provide a significant boost, but both Gibson and Lynn are coming off down seasons of their own while internal options like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Matthew Liberatore all come with their own question marks, though internal youngsters like Sem Robberse could impact the club in 2024 and provide depth behind the established arms. As for the bullpen, both Kittredge and internal southpaw JoJo Romero have flashed tantalizing upside in the past but offer little certainty headed into 2024. That goes for most of the club’s relief corps with the exceptions of Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, though even they dealt with injury and under-performance issues respectively last season. Signing an arm like Moore or Maton to bolster the bullpen could go a long way to helping St. Louis return to form next season, particularly given the relative inaction of the rest of the division aside from Cincinnati this winter.

Six Teams Interested In Ryan Brasier

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Free agent reliever Ryan Brasier is drawing interest from at least six different teams, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Goold writes that the Cardinals and Dodgers are involved in the market, while Heyman writes that the Angels, Cubs, Orioles, and Rangers also have interest.

Brasier has already pitched for both Los Angeles teams, as he made his MLB debut with nine innings for the Angels back in 2013 and then seemingly got his career back on track with the Dodgers last season.  The right-hander posted a 6.16 ERA over 83 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2021 and in the first two months of the 2022 campaign before he was released, and then signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in June.

Secondary metrics (especially in 2022) indicated that Brasier was pitching better than his ERA would indicate, and the turn-around came once he donned Dodger Blue.  L.A. selected Brasier’s contract in late June and he was almost untouchable the rest of the way, posting an 0.70 ERA over 38 2/3 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen.  Brasier had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and 51.1% grounder rate as a Dodger — all major improvements over his numbers in Boston last year, though Brasier also enjoyed a .183 BABIP in Los Angeles, as opposed to a .344 BABIP with the Red Sox.

As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings explored in August, Brasier started throwing a cutter for the first time in his career and the results were immediate.  Not only did batters hit only .152 against Brasier’s new offering, he noted that “having another pitch to get guys off certain other pitches.  But (while) working on the cutter, some other stuff started to come back.”

The cutter’s effectiveness adds yet another wrinkle to the up-and-down nature of Brasier’s career.  After his cup of coffee with the Angels in 2013, he didn’t return to the majors until 2018, as the righty spent the interim years pitching with the Athletics’ Triple-A team and with the Hiroshima Carp in Japan.  Brasier returned to North America by signing a minors deal with the Red Sox in 2018, and he unexpectedly emerged as a key bullpen weapon for the eventual World Series champions.  Brasier had a 1.60 ERA over 33 2/3 regular-season innings for the Sox that season, plus a 1.04 ERA in 8 2/3 postseason frames.

The remainder of Brasier’s time in Boston was much shakier, as he ended up with a 4.55 ERA over his 209 2/3 career innings in a Red Sox uniform.  As he now enters his age-36 season, however, Brasier again seems like an intriguing relief option given how well he pitched with the Dodgers.  His age and somewhat inconsistent track record could limit him to a one-year contract, yet with so much interest in his market, Brasier might be able to land some type of option for the 2025 season depending on how sold teams are with his late-season performance.

Cardinals Swap Richie Palacios To Rays For Andrew Kittredge

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The Rays and Cardinals got together on a swap this afternoon that sent outfielder Richie Palacios to Tampa and right-hander Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported that the sides were in talks regarding the two players, while The Athletic’s Katie Woo first reported that the deal between the two sides was complete.

Kittredge, 34 in March, was a 45th-round pick by the Mariners back in 2008 but didn’t make his big league debut until 2017 as a member of the Rays. After riding the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors in the first two seasons of his career, Kittredge earned a more permanent role with the club in 2019, when he pitched to a 4.17 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 49 2/3 innings of work across 37 appearances. Kittredge was relied upon for both single-inning and multi-inning relief appearances while acting as both an opener and a late-inning arm for the club throughout the season. Kittredge went on to impress early in the shortened 2020 campaign with a 2.25 ERA, but saw his season limited to just eight appearances by a UCL sprain.

Kittredge elected free agency following the 2020 season but re-signed with the Rays on a minor league deal shortly thereafter and wound up turning in a dominant 2021 season. Kittredge pitched 71 2/3 across 57 appearances and kept his ERA at a sparkling 1.88 figure during the time. He struck out 27.3% of batters faced while walking just 5.3% and maintaining a strong 53.5% groundball rate. Kittredge’s ERA was third in the majors behind only Jacob deGrom and Ranger Suarez among pitchers with at least 70 innings of work that season, easily earning him the first All Star appearance of his career.

Unfortunately for both the Rays and Kittredge, much of his time has been spent on the injured list since that phenomenal 2021 campaign. He dealt with back tightness early in the 2022 campaign before undergoing Tommy John surgery that June and didn’t return to the majors until mid-August. In 31 appearances between the 2022 and ’23 campaigns, Kittredge performed solidly despite the circumstances with a 3.13 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. With that being said, some of the veteran righty’s peripherals took a turn for the worse during that time. The righty’s groundball rate dipped to just 42.7% during that time while his strikeout rate sank to 19.2%.

Even so, the addition of Kittredge offers the Cardinals a veteran arm with late inning experience to supplement the back of their bullpen, which currently features Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, and JoJo Romero. Gallegos suffered a down season in 2023 while Helsley and Romero combined for just 73 1/3 innings of work, leaving plenty of uncertainty surrounding the group headed into 2024. While Kittredge has some question marks himself, he provides another quality arm with a track record of success in the majors: since he became a regular fixture in the Tampa bullpen back in 2019, Kittredge owns a 2.85 ERA and 3.43 FIP across 161 innings of work. For a Cardinals club that had made bullpen upgrades and explicit goal this offseason, adding Kittredge could go a long way to achieving that objective.

In exchange for Kittredge’s services, the Cardinals are giving up Palacios. The club acquired the 26-year-old outfielder from the Guardians in a cash deal back in June and the youngster took off in 32 games with St. Louis, slashing .258/.307/.516 in 102 trips to the plate in the majors while posting a .299/.418/.459 slash line in 195 Triple-A plate appearances with the organization. The offensive outburst from Palacios was relatively unexpected, as he had struggled to a .232/.293/.286 slash line with the Guardians in 2022 and mustered just a .217/.351/.318 line in 56 Triple-A games prior to the trade.

Clearly, the Rays are betting that Palacios unlocked a new level during his time in St. Louis. If he can hit at an above-average clip in the majors, the lefty-swinging youngster could provide the Rays with an outfield bat to fill the void left by Luke Raley, who the club swapped to Seattle earlier today. It’s even possible he could chip in at second base, where he has spent 920 1/3 innings in the minors (though he’s only made three appearances there at the big league level), alongside Brandon Lowe.

Tantalizing as the upside Palacios flashed last season was, however, it seems unlikely he would’ve been able to garner more than a bench role in St. Louis due to the club’s deep outfield mix and the presence of both Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman at the keystone. The lack of a clear role for Palacios in St. Louis and Kittredge’s lack of additional team control beyond 2024 make this swap a relatively low-cost gamble for both sides that could pay significant dividends in 2024 (and, in the case of the Rays and Palacios, beyond).

Tommy Edman Underwent Arthroscopic Wrist Surgery In October

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Cardinals utility player Tommy Edman underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist in October, the club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells John Denton of MLB.com. The Cards are hoping that Edman will be ready for Spring Training.

Edman, 29 in May, spent some time on the injured list last year due to inflammation in that wrist, missing almost a month from early July until early August. Per Denton’s report, the issue continued to bother him even after he returned from the IL.

Perhaps that explains why Edman’s production at the plate fell off relative to the previous season. He hit .265/.324/.400 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 106 but that line dipped a bit to .248/.307/.399 last year, with the wRC+ dropping to 92.

Edman is going to be a key contributor for the club in 2024, though his exact role is to be determined. He currently projects to be the club’s center fielder, with prospect Masyn Winn set to take over as the everyday shortstop. However, Winn hit just .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances and isn’t a lock to hold down the job all year long. That could perhaps lead to Edman moving to shortstop and someone like Dylan Carlson or Lars Nootbaar taking over in center.

In addition to those two positions, Edman has played second base, third base and the outfield corners, generally getting excellent grades for his glovework regardless of where he’s lined up. That will give the club plenty of opportunity to slot him into the lineup, even as the season rolls along and circumstances change due to injuries, prospect promotions or transactions. The club will therefore be hoping that his rehab proceeds as planned and he doesn’t experience any setbacks between now and the start of the season.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

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