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21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Iván Herrera Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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The Cardinals were expected to have a tough decision to make behind the plate this winter, as catcher Iván Herrera was projected to be out of options in 2024. With backstops Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner also present on the club’s roster, that figured to serve as something of a ticking clock and made Herrera into a speculative trade candidate. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays that Herrera is eligible for a fourth option year.

A player has three option seasons and burns one by spending 20 days on optional assignment in a given year, which is when they are on the 40-man roster but sent to the minors and not on the active roster. Herrera was added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster in November of 2020 and has been optioned to the minors in each of the three seasons since, surpassing the 20-day threshold in each year. That is why it was presumed that he would be out of options in 2024 and unable to be sent to the minors without first being put on waivers.

Teams are sometimes granted a fourth option, which is usually due to the player missing extensive time due to injury. However, the specific nature of the fourth option criteria isn’t necessarily related to injury. Per an explanation at MLB.com, a player is eligible for a fourth option if they have exhausted their three options but haven’t yet played five full seasons. A “full” season is defined as 90 days on an active roster, either in the majors or minors.

Herrera’s first two professional seasons saw him mostly play short-season rookie ball in 2017 and 2018, spending less than 90 days active. He was active in the minors for all of 2019 but then the minor leagues were cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, and this seems to be the significant factor. Per Goold, 2020 doesn’t count as a “full” season it therefore appears that Herrera only has four of those “full” seasons as a professional: 2019 and then the three most recent campaigns.

At this point, it’s unclear if the Cardinals have petitioned the league for a fourth option on Herrera or if it will be granted, but it seems as though he meets the criteria. If the option is indeed granted, it could change how the club approaches its offseason.

Herrera is one of the club’s better prospects and has little left to prove in the minors. He has hit .282/.416/.450 at the Triple-A level and also performed well in a small sample of major league action this year. But Contreras is a lock for the starting role, given he signed a five-year, $87.5MM contract less than a year ago. Knizner also had a decent year in a backup role, hitting .241/.288/.424 for a wRC+ of 92. He made $1.1MM this year and would be in line for another arbitration raise, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a 2024 salary of $2.2MM.

Since the Cardinals are openly hoping to find three rotation upgrades this offseason, it had been speculated that they might put Herrera on the trading block in order to help them achieve that goal. That may still prove to be the case, but having an extra option at least opens the possibility of them having those discussions with less urgency since they may be able to keep Herrera in Triple-A for another year. Or perhaps it would add the appeal of Herrera to other clubs, since he might not have to be guaranteed an active roster spot.

It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out this winter, with the Cards looking like they could be one of the more active clubs in the months to come. It’s also possible that there are many more players in the same boat as Herrera, since all of the minor leagues were canceled in 2020 and it would appear that hundreds of players also didn’t get credited with a “full” season for it.

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

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Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits.  While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”

In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available.  Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.

St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player.  In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old.  More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.

With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types.  Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.

Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline.  Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.

Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old.  Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon.  While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Adam Wainwright Receives Pinch-Hit Appearance

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Adam Wainwright’s 200th career win (from seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers on September 18) has been confirmed as the last pitching appearance of the right-hander’s outstanding career, but Wainwright stepped up to the plate one final time in yesterday’s 19-2 Cardinals loss to the Reds.  With the game already out of hand by the sixth inning, Wainwright pinch-hit for DH Luken Baker, and grounded out to second to conclude the 847th plate appearance of his career.

There was a loose plan in place to give Wainwright at least one PA during the final series of his career, though with the Reds still alive in the playoff race, the Cardinals weren’t going to do anything to do impact the integrity of the game just for the sake of a ceremonial at-bat.  However, the lopsided score Friday provided an opportunity for Wainwright to hit for what will likely be the final time, barring another blowout result in the next two games or if the Reds are officially eliminated from contention.  Wainwright has a .194/.221/.293 slash line and 10 homers during his career.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals entered the year expected to compete for another NL Central title. Instead, they’re on track for their first 90-loss season in more than three decades. They’re going to make another push for contention this winter, with no secret about a forthcoming pursuit of rotation help.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $108MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $264.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Hudson, Barnes, Knizner, Woodford

Free Agents

It didn’t take long to become clear the Cardinals weren’t going to meet preseason expectations. St. Louis started slowly, rebounded somewhat in May, then fell firmly out of the playoff picture with an 8-15 showing in June. They were positioned as deadline sellers by the All-Star Break.

That’s largely on account of a well below-average run prevention group. The club’s typically excellent defense regressed. Willson Contreras was briefly moved to designated hitter then returned to catcher in a bizarre saga early into the first season of his five-year free agent deal. Most concerning, the starting rotation simply wasn’t good enough to keep the Cardinals in games.

Adam Wainwright had the worst season of his career at age 41. The Cardinals understandably let him continue taking the ball in deference to his place in franchise history. He fortunately managed to hit the 200 win mark with a gem over the Brewers last week to close out his career. Wainwright’s contributions to the last two decades of Cardinal baseball are hard to overstate. He clearly didn’t have much left in the tank this season, though, meaning the Cards shouldn’t have much difficulty finding better production out of one their rotation spots.

They’ll need far more than to replace the outgoing Wainwright. St. Louis dealt impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty at the deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said shortly thereafter that the club was hoping to fill all three vacated spots from outside the organization. They’d give looks to various younger hurlers to see if any would elevate their standing during the final six weeks. The expectation is nevertheless they’d need to add a trio of starters.

There’s an argument the Cardinals could use four new starting pitchers. Miles Mikolas is the one lock for a job. He’s miscast as a staff ace but has proven a very durable source of innings, starting 32+ games in four of the last five full seasons. He’s tallied 194 1/3 frames of 4.82 ERA ball this year. He’s had a rough second half, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back.

The rest of the group is uncertain. Steven Matz has underwhelmed in two seasons since signing a four-year free agent deal. The Cardinals kicked Matz to the bullpen for a spell midseason. He eventually returned to the rotation, turned in his best seven-start run as a Cardinal, then suffered a season-ending lat strain in mid-August. It would’ve been a lot easier to pencil him into next year’s rotation if he’d stayed healthy over the final six weeks.

St. Louis has otherwise cycled through pitchers who haven’t had much success at the MLB level. Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom (acquired from the Orioles in the Flaherty trade) were all well-regarded prospects, to varying extents. Only Thompson has carried that over at the MLB level and that has mostly come in relief.

The Cards have given Thompson nine starts during the final couple months, during which he’s posted a 4.37 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout and walk rates. The former first-round pick has put the best case forward for a season-opening job out of that trio, yet he’ll be 26 in October and has all of 10 career major league starts. He’s probably not a lock either. Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson have logged some innings without much success. Either could be non-tendered, with Hudson having a particularly tenuous hold on a roster spot heading into his third season of arbitration eligibility.

It’s clearly an insufficient group for a team hoping to return to contention. The Cards have never been huge free agent spenders, preferring to attack the trade market and re-sign the stars they acquire. They’ve yet to go past an $80MM guarantee for a free agent starter (Mike Leake), though they’ve notably been in the free agent bidding for some higher-profile names in the past (most notably, David Price. There’s a chance they set a new franchise record for free agent pitching investment this winter.

The Cardinals have roughly $108MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class will probably tack on a bit over $20MM. That’s still well shy of the $177MM range in which they opened the ’23 campaign. There’s room for a strike towards the upper end of the free agent market.

This winter’s class skews toward pitching. Beyond Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch next season), the rotation group is headlined by Blake Snell and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That duo might wind up beyond the Cards’ spending range, but the next group of arms includes Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez (assuming he opts out of his deal with the Tigers). Montgomery and Nola are very likely to surpass nine figures, while Gray has a chance to do so. Any of that group would immediately be the best pitcher on the St. Louis staff. Rodriguez could beat the Leake guarantee as well.

Mozeliak and his front office will probably add a couple arms in free agency. Handing out the two biggest free agent guarantees for starters in franchise history in the same offseason might not be tenable. Looking further down the class, players like Seth Lugo, old friend Michael Wacha — if his options with the Padres are declined — and Kenta Maeda could offer stability. The Cards may prefer that to a rebound flier on Frankie Montas or Luis Severino, though they’d certainly have the opportunity to dangle a job to a riskier upside play if that’s a route they’d prefer.

Not all of the work has to be accomplished in free agency. The Cards were a team to watch at last summer’s deadline, with rumors of potential deals involving their young hitters to land a controllable starting pitcher. That didn’t materialize. The Cardinals were active, but their trades generally followed the same pattern: moving an impending free agent (Flaherty, Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong) for upper minors talent, preferably pitching.

Speculation about dealing a big league position player could return. Former top prospect Dylan Carlson is the obvious candidate. He’d looked like the franchise center fielder after securing the position midway through the 2022 season. The switch-hitting Carlson hasn’t had the breakout offensive showing that many expected, however, settling in as a roughly league average bat over the past few years. Lars Nootbaar broke out late in ’22 to take hold of center field.

Rather than return Carlson to an everyday role in the corner outfield, they pushed him into more of a fourth outfield capacity. Top prospect Jordan Walker arrived at the major league level to man right field. Walker is already an above-average MLB hitter, though he’s one of the game’s worst defensive outfielders. Tyler O’Neill is a far better defender in left field. He has been up-and-down offensively while battling various injuries, but the Cards have maintained faith that he could recapture his 30-homer potential. They showed little interest in trading him and reportedly plan to give him the left field job to start his final year of club control.

That leaves St. Louis with a few decisions to make. They probably don’t want to consign the 21-year-old Walker to a full-time DH role. There’s no room for Walker on the corner infield, at least for one more season. Depending on how they handle second base, the Cards could need to keep the DH spot available for an infielder. They could retain Carlson as a fourth outfielder, likely passing on a chance to flip him for pitching talent in the process. Richie Palacios, acquired in a minor June trade with the Guardians, has played well enough in September to have a shot at sticking as a fourth outfielder.

Carlson is no longer going to return an impact controllable starter, but there’d still be interest — particularly in a thin market for center fielders. The Yankees expressed interest in Carlson at the deadline and could put Clarke Schmidt on the table, as a speculative possibility. Perhaps the Marlins are prepared to listen on 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers after an injury-wrecked ’23 season. If the Cardinals hold Carlson, they could flip Alec Burleson on the heels of a down year. That’d mean selling low on a former top prospect with five years of remaining club control, though.

The middle infield is the other area where they could leverage their young talent in trade. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are very different players — Donovan is an excellent contact hitter, Gorman has potential 30+ homer power — but they’re each above-average MLB bats. Neither is a great defender at second base, but Gorman has improved at the position and Donovan can bounce around the diamond. Donovan missed most of the second half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery; he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Gorman and Donovan would have more trade value than Carlson. The Cardinals could keep both, rotating them between second base and designated hitter. Yet it’s possible they flip one for a controllable starting pitcher. Speculation about the Cardinals and Mariners lining up on a trade has abounded for months. Seattle certainly isn’t moving George Kirby, and they’d probably balk at dealing Logan Gilbert. They could offer Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, though it’s debatable if that’s enough from the Cardinals’ perspective. The Marlins (Braxton Garrett) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long) could each float interesting young pitchers as part of a larger trade package.

Tommy Edman would generate a fair bit of interest himself. He’s a decent hitter who can seemingly play plus defense at every non-catching position. The Cardinals seem disinclined to move him given his defensive value, though they’ll surely receive some calls. It’s a dreadful free agent class for middle infield help, leaving teams like Detroit, Miami and the Giants without clear solutions at shortstop. Edman would be an upgrade for any of that trio.

That’d be an easier sell for St. Louis if top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn had hit the ground running. The 21-year-old has mustered only a .168/.233/.243 line in his first 33 big league contests. It doesn’t change his long-term outlook, since most players his age are at Double-A or below. Yet it suggests Winn is probably ticketed for Triple-A to start next season, which would leave Edman as the presumptive starting shortstop.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will be back at the corner infield. Goldschmidt is going into the final season of the five-year extension he signed upon landing in St. Louis. If the Cardinals struggle early in the year, he’d be a major deadline trade chip. It’d be very surprising if they seriously entertain moving him during the offseason, however. Perhaps another team wants to take a flier on 26-year-old Luken Baker, who is blocked by Goldschmidt but raked at a .334/.439/.720 clip in Triple-A this season.

23-year-old catcher Iván Herrera also had a great Triple-A showing, hitting .297/.451/.500 with 10 longballs in 375 trips to the plate. It’s his second consecutive above-average performance at the top minor league level. He’ll be out of options next year and surely won’t be placed on waivers. Either the Cardinals keep Herrera in the majors or they trade him, but the signing of Contreras muddies Herrera’s path to a regular role.

The Cards could flip or non-tender Andrew Knizner if they wanted to carry Herrera as Contreras’ backup. Herrera would have quite a bit more appeal than Knizner on the trade market, with teams like Miami (again), Tampa Bay and Boston among possible matches.

Deadline trade speculation extended to the bullpen. There was little incentive to hold impending free agents Hicks and Stratton. Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley were loosely floated in rumors. Helsley was on the injured list at the time, while Gallegos had just signed an extension last October. It’s not surprising no deal came together. While opposing clubs could call again on either, the Cardinals would probably prefer to retain two of their better late-game arms. Alongside southpaw JoJo Romero, that duo should assume high-leverage roles.

With Stratton and Hicks gone and long reliever Drew VerHagen hitting free agency, it’s likely St. Louis will add one or two relievers to the mix. That could include their first notable free agent bullpen pickup since they signed Andrew Miller in advance of the 2019 season, even if the rotation is the higher priority.

It looks like a winter with a fair bit of roster turnover. That doesn’t appear to extend to the top non-playing personnel. Oliver Marmol will be back for a third season as manager. Mozeliak — the sport’s second-longest tenured front office head — doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy after a decade and a half of mostly successful ball. Mozeliak implied last offseason that he could hand the reigns to longtime lieutenant Michael Girsch once his contract expires after the 2025 season.

That’s a longer-term consideration. For now, the focus for Mozeliak, Girsch and Marmol is on quickly righting the ship after a disastrous season. The Cardinals aren’t accustomed to looking up at the rest of the division. They’ll try to ensure this offseason that it doesn’t happen again.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 9-29-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Willson Contreras Avoids Wrist Surgery

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Willson Contreras’ season came to an early end when the catcher was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list last week, though the good news is that Contreras’ bout of tendinitis in his left wrist doesn’t appear to need surgery, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com and other media.  Contreras met with a hand specialist who advised that the wrist problem can be healed through a non-surgical recovery process, though since this specialist was a second opinion, that would imply that an initial diagnosis perhaps recommended some kind of procedure.

NL Injury Notes: Hoskins, Davis, Mitchell, Candelario, Alzolay

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Phillies manager Rob Thomson isn’t ruling out the possibility that Rhys Hoskins will play in the postseason. More specifically, the skipper told hosts on the WIP Morning Show that if Philadelphia makes it back to the World Series, Hoskins could be available to DH or pinch-hit.

The first baseman tore his ACL during spring training and has not played for the Phillies since last October. However, he’s taking batting practice and running the bases, and he appears to be progressing well. The possibility of his return remains a long shot – Philadelphia would have to make the World Series first, and even then, it’s no guarantee – but still, this is encouraging news for the club.

Hoskins has an .846 OPS and a 126 wRC+ in his career, both of which would rank second among qualified Phillies hitters this season. He was instrumental to the team’s postseason run last fall, clubbing six home runs and driving in 12 across 17 games.

In other National League injury news…

  • J.D. Davis exited early on Tuesday night after a rough slide into third base. The Giants later informed reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that the third baseman had suffered a shoulder strain, although the severity of the injury remains unclear. The 30-year-old has been San Francisco’s most durable player this season, leading the team in plate appearances and games played.
  • Brewers rookie Garrett Mitchell was spotted on the field ahead of Tuesday night’s contest with the Cardinals. The outfield prospect has been on the injured list since mid-April, but he is hoping to return for the playoffs. The 25-year-old told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that he could remain on the IL for the rest of the regular season but still make the postseason roster. He is awaiting one final medical appointment before he is fully cleared to return, and he seems optimistic about his chances to play some kind of role for the Brewers this October.
  • Cubs manager David Ross spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to provide an update on Jeimer Candelario. Chicago’s big addition at the trade deadline has been on the IL since September 11 with a lower back strain, but he could return as soon as this evening against the Braves. The Cubs could certainly use his switch-hitting bat in the lineup as they try to fend off their opponents in the Wild Card race over the final five days of the season. In other Cubs news, closer Adbert Alzolay is making progress in his attempt to return from a forearm strain. He is hoping to face live hitters in the next few days. 

Adam Wainwright Is Done For The Season And His Career

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Adam Wainwright will not throw another pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals, manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including John Denton of MLB.com). His season is officially over, and with that, so ends his phenomenal career.

Cardinals fans were holding out hope that the 18-year veteran might make one more start at Busch Stadium, but the pain he has been dealing with in his back and shoulder has simply become too much to bear. He twirled a gem in his last outing, tossing seven scoreless against the Brewers to earn his 200th career victory. As his manager explained, the 42-year-old used “every ounce of what was left in that arm” that evening. Indeed, it was far and away his best performance of the year; he had not thrown seven innings in a start or made a scoreless appearance since August 2022. In what has largely been a disappointing season, Wainwright mustered the strength of his former self one last time.

While Wainwright will not pitch again, Marmol kept the door open for the possibility of a pinch-hit plate appearance. Before the designated hitter came to the National League, the 6-foot-7 righty was one of the better hitting pitchers in the game. He hit ten home runs in his career, including two in 2017, when he won the Silver Slugger. If he does not take another at-bat, he will finish with a .194/.222/.294 slash line, perfectly respectable numbers for a man who made his living on the mound.

As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, Wainwright will only step to the plate against the Reds during the final series of the season if Cincinnati has either clinched a postseason berth or already been eliminated from contention. Marmol will not give up an opportunity to play spoiler against a division rival. As enjoyable as it would be to see Wainwright take one last at-bat, that’s no reason not to play competitive baseball.

Any potential pinch-hitting appearance aside, this marks the end of a wonderful career for the Cardinals legend. In 478 games, Wainwright pitched to a 3.53 ERA, earning Cy Young votes in five separate seasons. He is a three-time All-Star, a two-time Gold Glove winner, and a World Series champion. Perhaps most impressive of all, he spent his entire career with a single franchise, an increasingly rare occurrence in this day and age. He ranks second all-time among Cardinals pitchers in strikeouts and third in wins.

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