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Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Acuna, Luciano, Quero, Saggese

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The Trade Deadline seems to be happening early this year. Between the time I begin writing and this is posted, there might be more deals involving big-name prospects. This week, we’ll focus on the recently completed swaps. We’ll check back on the leftovers next time.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE (AAA)
313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442

Manzardo burst onto Top 100 prospect rankings last season with a flashy 22-homer performance in nearly 400 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He has all the traits armchair prospect analysts (like myself) crave – plus discipline, a high rate of contact, and above-average exit velocities. If there was a fly in the ointment, his combination of high BABIPs and frequent fly balls seemed untenable. This season, he’s dropped to a more plausible .269 BABIP while maintaining the fly ball rate. His 2023 numbers more closely match his identity. His power outcomes have backed up, but there’s little cause for long-term concern. Additionally, Progressive Field is friendly to left-handed power hitters. Manzardo is undersized for a first baseman, and his power draws 45 and 50 grades on the 20/80 scouting scale. The profile reads a lot like a four-inches-shorter, left-handed Rhys Hoskins.

Luisangel Acuna, 21, 2B/SS, NYM (AA)
402 PA, 7 HR, 42 SB, .315/.377/.452

Repeating Double-A after a rough first exposure last season, Acuna has looked comfortable at the level. His BABIP-fueled batting line is 21 percent above league average (121 wRC+) despite middling power numbers. Like his brother, Luisangel has terrorized opponents on the basepaths. Scouts rate him as merely an above-average runner. There is a degree of swing-and-miss (12.4% SwStr%) to Acuna’s game that calls his future role into question. He’s expected to grow into average or better power if he can learn to lift the ball more consistently. Whether or not he can do so without developing a strikeout problem could depend on the sort of adjustment required. Lift-related mechanical changes tend to exacerbate whiff issues. In some cases, the issue is the location of contact – an adjustment that can yield positive results without negative repercussions. Acuna’s swing is violent and loud. Change could prove challenging. Despite strong walk rates, Acuna is an aggressive swinger, particularly at breaking balls below the zone.

Necessary offensive adjustments aside, there’s also question about Acuna’s future defensive role. He’s a physically capable shortstop who yet lacks polish. Lately, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing shortstop prospects with precocious defensive ability. Acuna could be asked to move over to second or third to better accommodate his ascent alongside Francisco Lindor.

Marco Luciano, 21, SS, SFG (MLB)
(AA) 242 PA, 11 HR, 6 SB, .228/.339/.450

The only member of today’s column who wasn’t traded, the Giants rushed Luciano to the Majors to cover a short-term opening at shortstop. Despite tepid overall numbers at Double-A, Luciano caught a heater beginning in late June. He batted .315/.397/.500 over his final 63 plate appearances at the level. His success carried over to a 27-plate appearance stint in Triple-A where he batted .292/.370/.625 with Major League caliber exit velocities. He’s 3-for-11 with five strikeouts thus far in the Majors. The once uber-prospect has developed into a slug-over-contact future third baseman. His strikeout rate might check in north of 30 percent. Only 11 qualified hitters have strikeout rates above 30 percent. The good news is nine of 11 have above-average batting lines. The two who don’t – Teoscar Hernandez and Byron Buxton – are celebrated hitters. Luciano will look to join this cohort of hitters.

It’s unlikely Luciano sticks with the contending Giants in the short term.

Edgar Quero, 20, C, CWS (AA)
321 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .246/.386/.332

A switch-hitter, Quero emerged as a bat-first catching prospect last season when he hit .312/.435/.530 with 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 515 Low-A plate appearances. The Angels made the curious decision to skip him past High-A – perhaps seeking to pair him with a better defensive instructor. His discipline remained in evidence this season. The power… not so much. Another plausible explanation of Quero’s aggressive assignment is to see if he merited moving to a different position to accommodate his bat. Instead, the Angels moved him from the organization entirely in the Lucas Giolito trade. Look for Chicago to slow the roll on Quero’s development. His defensive skills are reported to remain relatively raw.

Thomas Saggese, 21, 3B, STL (AA)
418 PA, 15 HR, 8 SB, .313/.379/.512

Saggese doesn’t have the physical traits evaluators crave, but he makes up for it with a hard-nosed playstyle. Part of the Jordan Montgomery trade, it feels like he was always destined to join the Cardinals. His tools draw a collection of 40 and 50 grades, but his feel for quality contact allows the total package to play up. Multiple reports reference his success against sliders. Something to watch is how he performs against upper-level pitchers with big fastballs and command. The Cardinals might seek to add corner outfield to Saggese’s bag of tricks. He fits best at third base, is considered too short for first base, and just passes at second base. The Cards love their role players to possess a deep well of utility.

Three More

Tekoah Roby, STL (21): The prospect headliner of the Montgomery trade, Roby has a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings. His best weapon is a double-plus curve ball. He’s currently sidelined with a shoulder injury. There’s relief risk for health reasons only – the stuff and command are sufficient to project a mid-rotation role.

Marco Vargas, NYM (18): Stolen from the Marlins in the David Robertson trade, Vargas is one of the flashier talents in the complex. He’s batting .283/.457/.442 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts and a strong rate of contact. Power development will decide whether he’s viewed as a future utility fielder or core performer.

Adam Kloffenstein, STL (22): Part of the return for Jordan Hicks, Kloffenstein is a big right-hander with a limited repertoire. He tunnels a sinker and slider in a way reminiscent of Brady Singer and Brad Keller. He has a solid feel for command and projects to eat innings in an uninspiring way. He’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 89 Double-A frames.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Rangers Acquire Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton

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The Rangers continue to bolster their pitching ranks, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) reports that Texas and St. Louis have completed a trade to send Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Arlington.  The Cardinals will receive left-hander John King, as well as infield prospect Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitching prospect Tekoah Roby.  In the Rangers’ official announcement of the deal, it was noted that Texas also received an international bonus pool slot from the Cardinals.  To create roster space, Texas designated right-hander Joe Barlow for assignment.

With the Cards in seller mode, Montgomery and Stratton were seen as two of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the deadline, as both pitchers are free agents after the season.  Between this swap with the Rangers and the Cardinals’ move to send Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays earlier this afternoon, it’s fair to guess that Jack Flaherty (another pending free agent) might also soon be headed elsewhere, and St. Louis could also look to some surplus position players with more team control as the Cards look to reload for 2024.

As for the Rangers, acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday and now Montgomery today throughout reinforces the team’s rotation.  Despite season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi, Texas had gotten solid results from its starters for much of the year, but some cracks have begun to show.  Most prominently, Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since July 18, and was placed on the 15-day injured list today due to a forearm strain.

It’s an ominous diagnosis for a pitcher who already has two Tommy John surgeries on his health history, and the Rangers obviously aren’t taking any chances with Eovaldi’s recovery or in their pitching staff’s ability to thrive without Eovaldi in action.  Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) today that the team is “pretty confident” Eovaldi will be able to return after just the minimum 15 days, though Eovaldi will visit with a doctor for precautionary purposes.

Scherzer and Montgomery now join a rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, though it remains to be seen if Texas will stick with a six-man staff.  Keeping an extra starter might be useful to help keep everyone fresh for the pennant race (and, the Rangers hope, through October), yet moving Dunning back to a relief role might also be an option.  On the other hand, Dunning has pitched quite well since his return to starting work, whereas Perez and Heaney have been much more inconsistent and Gray has been struggling over the last month.

Montgomery was already part of a notable deadline trade last year, when the Yankees sent the left-hander to the Cardinals in a one-for-one trade for Harrison Bader.  In his first full year with the Cardinals, Montgomery has a 3.42 ERA over 121 innings, though his SIERA is a less-impressive 4.30.  The southpaw has done his usual above-average job of avoiding free passes (6.9% walk rate) and limiting hard contact, though Montgomery now has a second straight season of a below-average strikeout rate (21.2%).  While Montgomery has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, his whiff rate has also taken a tumble to 24.1% in 2023 after years of much more solid results.

If Scherzer is expected to be more of a front-of-the-rotation arm, then Montgomery represents a mid-rotation starter who can be relied on to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day and deliver respectable results.  Likewise, Stratton won’t be displacing Will Smith as the Rangers’ closer or even taking over a top set-up role, but he gives Texas another good arm for higher-leverage situtions late in games.

Montgomery and Stratton will each be reuniting with Mike Maddux, who was the Cardinals’ pitching coach from 2018-22 before moving on to join the Rangers’ coaching staff this year.  Stratton is also a known quantity to skipper Bruce Bochy, as Stratton broke into the majors in the Giants organization back when Bochy was managing the team in 2016.

Stratton is also on the move for the second straight year at the deadline, as the Pirates sent Jose Quintana and Stratton to the Cardinals last August.  Stratton’s 2022 numbers picked up considerably after that deal, and he has somewhat continued that form this season, even if his bottom-line results haven’t been reflective.  Stratton has a 4.36 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, though a 3.48 SIERA and 3.06 FIP indicate some bad luck on Stratton’s part, perhaps due to an unusually low 61.6% strand rate.

The right-hander doesn’t have the high-velocity arsenal associated with most relievers, nor are his hard-contact or walk rates anything special.  However, Stratton does bring durability in his ability to pitch multiple innings, and he has some of the most elite fastball and curveball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Without any reports of money changing hands between the two teams, it looks like the Rangers will be absorbing the remainder of the 2023 salaries for Montgomery (roughly $3.5MM) and Stratton (around $1MM).  It’s not a big financial commitment to a team that has already been splurging on big-name talent over the last two seasons, and Roster Resource projects that Texas is still just barely under the $233MM luxury tax threshold.  The Rangers reportedly don’t have any issue crossing the tax threshold, so if another upgrade presents itself before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office make another deal or two.

Among the players going back to the Cardinals, King is the best-known name to fans, as the lefty has a 4.27 ERA over 126 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020.  A grounder specialist who has a very impressive 61.7% career groundball rate, King is naturally more susceptible than most to batted-ball luck, so his huge .379 BABIP over 18 2/3 innings has been the main factor in his 5.79 ERA.

The Rangers have sent King back and forth from Triple-A on a couple of occasions this season, and he is under team control through the 2026 campaign.  The Cardinals will have the rest of the year to take a look at King and see if he might be an option for their bullpen going forward, plus in a more immediate sense King will add some left-handed depth to the St. Louis relief corps.

That said, Roby and Saggese are the bigger parts of this trade from the Cards’ perspective, as they join the three youngsters obtained in the Scherzer and Hicks deals as part of the sudden reload of the St. Louis farm system.  MLB Pipeline ranked Roby as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect and Saggese 14th, while Baseball America had a similar tack in placing Roby 13th and Saggese 15th.

Roby was a third-round pick for Texas in the 2020 draft, and he has a 5.05 ERA over 46 1/3 innings and 10 starts at Double-A Frisco this season.  While he has cut back on his walks and home runs allowed, Roby’s strikeout rate has also tumbled during his three pro seasons, though his 25.6% mark this year is still respectable.  The scouting reports from both Pipeline and BA pinpoint Roby’s command as his biggest issue, as his overall arsenal is solid.  Pipeline gives a 55 grade (on the 20-80 scale) to all four of Roby’s pitches, though their report notes that the 21-year-old “may not have a true plus pitch” as a go-to offering.

Adding Roby will help St. Louis restock the minor league pitching ranks, while Saggese seems to fit the Cardinals’ preferred profile of a multi-positional infielder.  Saggese has mostly played second and third base over his three pro seasons, while also getting a good chunk of action as a shortstop.  He isn’t necessarily a standout defender at any position, but Pipeline liked his ability to stick at second base, and Saggese’s versatility is surely an asset as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues.

The 21-year-old was also a 2020 draft pick (taken in the fifth round), and Saggese has done nothing but hit in the minors, including a .314/.380/.514 slash line and 15 homers over 417 plate appearances at Double-A in 2023.  The pundits note that Saggese’s aggression at the plate can sometimes backfire, yet he has shown a bit more patience this season with an 8.2% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Orioles, Cardinals Have Discussed Dylan Carlson

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The Cardinals’ sell-off is in full swing, with Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton already out the door. Prior to trading Montgomery and Stratton to the Rangers, the Cardinals spoke to the Orioles about the left-hander, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. He adds that the O’s have also talked to the Cardinals about switch-hitting center fielder Dylan Carlson.

Goold suggests that Carlson hasn’t necessarily been a focal point in talks but rather a value add in addition to the starters they’ve marketed. Even if Carlson were viewed as a standalone target for Baltimore, there’d be some sense to it. The O’s are bursting with young talent, but they’re currently without center fielder Cedric Mullins due to a groin strain. Aaron Hicks, who’s hit well since being released by the Yankees and signing in Baltimore, is also on the injured list at the moment (hamstring strain). The O’s have gotten strong production from corner outfielders Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, but top outfield prospect Colton Cowser has struggled immensely in his first 59 plate appearances since being recalled.

Carlson, unlike the other three players the Cardinals have traded in the past 24 hours, is not a free agent at season’s end. He has three years of club control remaining beyond the current season. A former top prospect himself, the 24-year-old’s standing in St. Louis has seemingly deteriorated as he’s produced at a roughly league-average level since turning in a strong 2021 campaign.

The O’s don’t necessarily need a long-term fix in center field, as Mullins is also under team control for multiple years beyond the current season (through 2025). However, even when Mullins returns, there’d theoretically be room for both him and Carlson in the lineup. Anthony Santander could see more time at designated hitter, perhaps cutting into the playing time of struggling Ryan Mountcastle (though Mountcastle’s offense has ticked up over the past couple weeks). A speculative outfield of Hays, Mullins and Carlson would be defensively superior to the current alignment. Adding Carlson to the mix would also open further avenues for offseason deals. Santander is only controlled through the 2024 season and is due a raise on his $7.4MM salary, for instance.

The Cardinals, notably, are virtually certain to trade 27-year-old right-hander Jack Flaherty before Tuesday’s deadline. If Baltimore’s interest in the Cardinals’ pitchers extended beyond Montgomery, then it stands to reason that a deal surrounding Flaherty and Carlson could still be discussed, though the extent of the Orioles’ potential interest in Flaherty isn’t known. The right-hander is three years younger than his now-former teammate, Montgomery, but is also having a weaker season. Flaherty’s ERA is a full run higher, and he’s sporting inferior strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.

Blue Jays Acquire Jordan Hicks

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The Blue Jays landed one of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the trade market Sunday, announcing the acquisition of righty Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals in exchange for Double-A right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. In a corresponding roster move, Toronto designated righty Mitch White for assignment. Hicks had previously been reported to be discussing an extension with the Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, though those discussions seemingly stalled out earlier in the week.

Hicks, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft by the Cardinals. He made his big league debut back in 2018 and threw 77 2/3 innings in his first big league season, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP. While he generated an impressive 60.7% groundball rate in his rookie campaign, he posted a lackluster 20.6% strikeout rate and struggled badly with his control to the point of walking 13.3% of batters faced. Early on in his sophomore 2019 season, Hicks required Tommy John surgery. That surgery began a series of injuries and setbacks that would limit him to just 38 2/3 innings of work from 2019-21.

Finally fully healthy in 2022, the Cardinals decided to try using Hicks as a member of the rotation. That experiment did not go well, as Hicks posted a 5.84 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 24 2/3 innings of work across seven starts while walking a whopping 16% of batters faced over that stretch. While he pitched a bit better upon returning to the bullpen, he nonetheless finished the 2022 campaign with 4.84 ERA and 13.3% walk rate in 61 1/3 innings of work.

The 2023 campaign started off difficultly for Hicks once again, as he yielded a whopping nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings of work in his first seven appearances of the year. Since then, however, he’s settled in as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past few months. Since April 18, Hicks sports a 2.25 ERA and a sterling 1.92 FIP in 36 innings of work. He’s cut his walk rate to 10.4% in that time, a figure that, while somewhat elevated, is more than made up for by a phenomenal 34.4% strikeout rate. Hicks also sports a characteristically excellent 58.3% groundball rate this season, a figure that has led him to allow just two home runs all season, and none since he got his season back on track in mid-April.

Hicks’s dominant arm makes him a perfect candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, as the Blue Jays lost closer Jordan Romano to the 15-day injured list earlier this weekend thanks to lower back inflammation. While it’s possible Romano will return fairly quickly after the minimum 15-day stint, he’s been plagued by the issue since it caused him to depart the All Star game earlier this month. Still, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Blue Jays take additional time to ensure their closer is fully healthy upon his return given both the nagging nature of the issue and the importance of Romano, who leads the AL with 28 saves this season and sports a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings this season, to the club’s success.

In return for Hicks’s services, the Blue Jays are paying a hefty prospect toll. Robberse appears to be the headliner in the deal as the club’s seventh-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline and their sixth-best prospect according to Fangraphs. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2019, the 21-year-old hurler sports a 92-94 mph fastball, quality secondary offerings in both a changeup and a slider, and plus command. In 113 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level, Robberse owns a 3.97 ERA and a strikeout rate of 22%.

Kloffenstein, meanwhile, goes unranked on both Pipeline’s and Fangraphs’s lists. Fangraphs describes Kloffenstein as a pitcher with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a sinker and a slider, though it ultimately pegs him as more of an innings-eating, depth starter type. That evaluation, however, is from prior to the 2023 campaign, where Kloffenstein has impressed to this point. Toronto’s third-round pick in the 2018 draft has shoved across 89 innings of work at Double-A this season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%, a figure well above his career rate of 23.5% entering the 2023 campaign.

Both Kloffenstein and Robberse clearly fit the mold of return the Cardinals have reportedly been looking for in dangling their rental arms this summer: controllable, upper-level starting pitching prospects. Both Robberse and Kloffenstein project as starters going forward and have over 100 innings of experience at Double-A, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat noting that both hurlers are set to be promoted to Triple-A by the Cardinals organization. Given that promotion, it seems reasonable to assume both pitchers will be on the big league radar for sometime in 2024, barring injury or ineffectiveness changing the timeline.

The deal also spells the end of White’s time in Toronto. A second-round selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft, White impressed with a 3.44 ERA and 3.78 FIp in 49 2/3 innings of work across his first two seasons in the majors. He continued his success in a Dodgers uniform in 2022 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 56 innings of work, but the club dealt White to Toronto at the trade deadline last season. Since joining the Blue Jays, White has struggled mightily, with a 7.60 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. While he posted a 4.03 FIP that far outstrips his results as a member of the Jays, his walk rate has ticked up to 11.7% this season, a level unlikely to be sustainable given his mediocre 21.7% strikeout rate. Going forward, Toronto will have one week to either waive or release White, assuming he himself isn’t traded before the deadline on August 1.

Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Hicks had been traded to Toronto. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Kloffenstein was part of the return. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Robberse’s inclusion in the deal.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Are Not Trading Nolan Arenado

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The Cardinals are not trading  Nolan Arenado, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly stating that fact to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. There was a report earlier this week that the Dodgers had strong interest in the third baseman and were discussing a deal, but it seems those talks won’t lead to Arenado leaving St. Louis. “I have stated we are not trading him, have not asked him to waive his no-trade clause,” Mozeliak said. “So at this time, we are working on building for future success.”

Despite the reported talks with the Dodgers, there were inherent obstacles to getting a deal done. For one thing, Arenado and the Cardinals seem to have a good relationship, as he didn’t trigger his opt-out opportunity at the end of last year. Most observers agreed he could have beat the five years and $144MM remaining on the deal, but he chose to stay, seemingly happy to stick with the organization as opposed to maximizing his earnings.

Since he has a full no-trade clause, he would have to sign off on any deal, and it would be surprising for him to do so after just waiving that opt-out chance. The report on the talks with the Dodgers indicated he was willing to accept a deal only to the Dodgers, having always wanted to play for them as a Southern California native. But Arenado told reporters last night that he had not been approached about his clause.

Beyond the contractual complications, all indications have suggested the Cards are planning to sell some pieces but still try to contend again next year. Since Arenado is one of the better players in the game, it would be hard to imagine a scenario wherein they subtract him from the roster and make their 2024 team better. The Cards do have a surplus of position players and a dearth of pitching, so perhaps one could make the argument that even “losing” a trade that makes the pitching staff better would be a net victory, but the easier path is just to keep Arenado and find other ways of upgrading the pitching staff.

Although Arenado is apparently sticking around, it still seems like Mozeliak and his staff will be busy in the next few days. The Cardinals are currently 46-59 and 11 games out of a playoff spot. Mozeliak has already admitted that the club will have to do some selling, making moves that are more focused on upgrading the 2024 club. That will seemingly lead to trades of impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks between now and the August 1 deadline.

Alec Burleson Drawing Trade Interest

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The Cardinals are going into the trade deadline as sellers and rival clubs are calling about outfielder Alec Burleson, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

It’s been a disappointing season in St. Louis. Despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations, they currently sport a record of 46-59, with only percentage points separating them from the Pirates and last place in the National League Central. They are 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and further back in the division.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted weeks ago that the club would have to make moves this summer that would improve the club’s chances in 2024. That makes it seem highly likely that impending free agents like Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks will wind up traded for players with more ability to help the Cards in the long-term.

Burleson wouldn’t fit into that category, as he’s on pace to surpass one-year of service time this year, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign. But it’s quite apparent that the Cardinals have an outfield logjam, which will need to be cleared one way or another. The regular playing time is going to Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Tyler O’Neill right now, with Burleson and Dylan Carlson also in the mix.

That’s already crowded enough as it is, but it gets worse. Tommy Edman was pushed from shortstop into the outfield by the resurgence of Paul DeJong. He’s currently on the injured list but is beginning a rehab assignment shortly, putting him back in the picture. The Cardinals are expected to move DeJong in the coming days but one of their top prospects, Masyn Winn, is a shortstop currently playing in Triple-A. Whenever he gets an audition at the big league level, Edman could be back on the grass.

Brendan Donovan also got pushed into the outfield this year with Nolan Gorman taking over regular duties at second base. Donovan currently has a flexor tendon injury in his right arm that prevents him from playing the field, limiting him to designated hitter duties for now, but he should be in the outfield mix again at some point.

Given all of those options, it seems like something has to give. It was recently reported that O’Neill is unlikely to be traded, though Goold adds that the Cards are open to it but the proposals have been underwhelming. That’s not surprising given that he’s been posting diminished production while battling injuries in the past two years. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs while slashing .286/.352/.560, stealing 15 bases in the process. But since then, he’s made multiple trips to the injured list and has hit just .234/.312/.385. He returned from the IL over a week ago and Goold adds that the Cards plan to play him as often as possible, both to assess his health and see if he can improve his trade stock. He’s hit a strong .323/.432/.452 since being activated but in just nine games.

If O’Neill can’t get a nice trade return, then perhaps the Cardinals will have to move someone else in order to clear some space. Carlson has already received plenty of interest and could perhaps be the most likely to be moved, but rival clubs are apparently intrigued by Burleson enough to put in some calls.

The 24-year-old Burleson hasn’t hit much in the majors yet, having slashed .230/.284/.370 since first being called up last year. But that’s come in a fairly limited role, as he’s only received 282 plate appearances since being recalled in September of last year. Before getting called up, he was hitting .331/.372/.532 in Triple-A, producing a 137 wRC+. He was generally considered one of the club’s top 10 prospects in recent years on account of that bat.

Though he hasn’t yet broken out at the big league level, perhaps he would have a better chance of doing so on a club with the ability to give him regular playing time. It’s therefore pretty understandable why clubs would put in a call. He’s still a couple of years away from qualifying for arbitration and even further from free agency. That means the Cardinals could certainly hang onto him, but with the aforementioned crowding, perhaps an intriguing offer makes them pull the trigger.

The Cardinals figure to be one of the most interesting teams between now and the August 1 deadline, with plenty of impending free agents who make for logical trade candidates. They also have a cluster of controllable position players and seem likely to move at least one of them between now and Tuesday.

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

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The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario.  Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar.  According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery.  Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline.  L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency.  Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere.  With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored.  In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal.  Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option.  Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal.  An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking.  If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers.  The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026.  Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal.  While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move.  The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA.  It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season.  The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024.  It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met.  I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”  Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past.  The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks

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The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.

Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.

A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.

Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.

Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.

Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.

Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.

Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks

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The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.

Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.

Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.

Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.

Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.

As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ’pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).

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