Transaction Retrospection: Garza Heads To Chicago
MLBTR is launching a new series entitled "Transaction Retrospection" in which we'll take a look back on trades that have taken place to see how the players involved — including low-level minor leaguers — have fared in new settings and how the involved teams have been impacted. Last week looked at the Josh Reddick trade, but remember that you can look back on other trades using MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.
Matt Garza has been involved in his share of high-profile moves. Since being drafted 25th overall by the Twins out of Fresno State in 2005, Garza has switched organizations in two marquee deals, and he once again finds himself as a trade candidate. He's been with the Cubs for a little more than two calendar years, but it seems like longer given the amount of trade rumors which constantly contain his name.
On January 8, 2011, the Rays traded Garza to the Cubs along with Fernando Perez and Zach Rosscup in exchange for prospects Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos and Brandon Guyer as well as outfielder Sam Fuld. Let's go player-by-player to see how it's all turned out… 
The Major League Side
- Matt Garza: Garza immediately became one of the Cubs' best pitchers following the trade, and he showed it off with arguably the best season of his career. In 2011, Garza tallied 198 innings and established career-bests in ERA (3.32), K/9 (8.95) and HR/9 (0.64). He continued to display strong command and took a step toward establishing himself as an ace-caliber pitcher. Fangraphs pegged his value at a lofty 4.9 wins above replacement. His 2012 effort was derailed by a stress reaction in his pitching elbow after just 103 2/3 innings, however, which is likely the main reason that he wasn't traded at the deadline last July. While his elbow appears to be healed, Garza recently suffered a lat strain while facing live hitters and now stands to miss the first month of the 2013 season. Needless to say, that jeopardizes his No. 9 ranking on Tim Dierkes' free agent power rankings, but if he returns healthy and pitches well he's a midseason trade candidate.
- Sam Fuld: Fuld's time in Tampa Bay got off to an incredible start, hitting .289/.358/.433 in the month of April. His defensive play, clutch hitting and surprising production spawned the Twitter hashtag "#LegendOfSamFuld," and the 29-year-old developed a cult following. He hit just .218/.292/.327 the rest of the way, however, and didn't improve in 107 plate appearances last season. He's competing for a roster spot with Tampa Bay once again this Spring.
The Minor League Side
- Chris Archer: Archer came to the Rays as an erratic 22-year-old with an electric fastball. He still battles command issues, but he's progressed enough to rank as the game's No. 36 prospect according to Baseball America and No. 46 according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. BA writes that his fastball sits 92-96 mph and is one of two "well above-average" pitches, the other being a devastating hard slider with "hard, cutting tilt and impressive depth." Mayo prefers Archer's fastball but echoes that both pitches can be plus at the MLB level. The two outlets agree that Archer's change-up development will be what determines if he's able to pan out as a top- or middle-of-the-rotation starter. Archer did make his MLB debut in 2012, firing 29 1/3 innings and whiffing 36 batters.
- Hak-Ju Lee: Lee is ranked 90th in the game by BA and 56th by Mayo, good for fourth and fifth in the Rays' system, respectively. Mayo writes that defensively, the Korean-born shortstop is more than MLB-ready right now, but he needs more time to develop his line-drive swing. His plus speed is an asset which both Mayo and BA agree upon. Both think he'll be a legitimate base-stealing threat, even if his lack of home-run power limits his overall upside a bit. Lee offers an opposite-field approach at the plate but needs to develop a more patient approach. He stole 37 bases in 46 tries as part of a .261/.336/.360 season at Double-A in 2012.
- Robinson Chirinos: A catcher by trade, Chirinos came to the Rays having ranked as the Cubs' No. 10 prospect according to BA. He regressed in 2011, however, hitting just .259/.343/.376 in 319 plate appearances — a vast departure from 2010's .326/.416/.583 line. Chirinos had a chance to make the Rays last Spring, but suffered a concussion that prevented him from playing a single game in the minors or Majors. He's with the team again in Spring Training this season, but his stock has obviously fallen.
- Brandon Guyer: Guyer entered the 2012 season as the Rays' No. 11 prospect according to BA, thanks largely to the .312/.384/.521 triple slash line the outfielder posted at Triple-A in 2011. BA praised his combination of speed and power as well as his throwing arm, noting that he profiled nicely in right field but could handle center field as well. Guyer earned a call-up in early May, but disaster struck after just three games; he suffered a labrum tear that would end his season before he was able to back up his minor league promise.
- Fernando Perez: Perez wasn't thought of as much of a prospect at the time of the trade, and indeed he never cracked the Cubs' big league roster. After hitting just .238/.312/.337 through 76 games for the Cubs' Triple-A affiliate, he was released. Perez latched on with the Mets, but fared even worse in 40 games for Triple-A Buffalo, hitting .188/.298/.250. He didn't play in affiliated ball last season.
- Zach Rosscup: Rosscup hasn't cracked one of BA's Top 30 prospect lists for either team, nor has he appeared on one of Mayo's Top 20 lists. Now 24 years old, the southpaw suffered an arm injury midway through a promising 2011 season (2.54 ERA, 9.1 K/9). Upon returning in late 2012, he worked his way to Double-A and showed mixed results. Rosscup whiffed 29 batters in 22 1/3 innings at Double-A but also walked 19 and posted a 4.84 ERA. His 3.87 FIP showed more promise, and he'll likely open the 2013 season at that level.
The Rays have made a habit out of competing in one of baseball's toughest divisions despite having one of baseball's lowest payrolls, and trades like this are a large factor in that success. Executive VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman dealt from a position of strength to acquire a host of prospects — two of which have developed into Top 100 prospects and two of which had their promising offensive potential limited by unforeseeable injuries. The Garza trade also paved the way for Jeremy Hellickson to join Tampa Bay's rotation and win 2011 AL Rookie of the Year honors.
The Cubs, meanwhile, got just the pitcher they were hoping for in Garza, but he too has been slowed by the injury bug. Garza would fit nicely atop Chicago's rebuilt rotation if he can return quickly, and he could net the team prospects this July if pitching well. Garza could also yield a first-round pick in 2014 if he turns down a qualifying offer, but his recent rash of injuries makes that a dicey proposition, as even the healthy Kyle Lohse has struggled to find a home due to his ties to draft pick compensation.
It's too early to say if one side got the better of this trade at this point, as Tampa Bay has yet to receive much value at the Major League level. However, the Rays seem to have positioned themselves for future success by moving a player when his value was near its peak.
Baseball America's 2013 Prospect Handbook was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Wang, Yankees, Rays, Marlins
The Yankees are among the teams keeping an eye on Chien-Ming Wang, who threw six shutout innings against Australia in the World Baseball Classic, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Aussies may not be the toughest team in the WBC, but Wang looked strong and probably helped his case for hooking on with the Bombers or another club as pitching depth. Here's more out of the AL and NL East..
- MLBPA chief Michael Weiner said this morning that there's "some legitimacy" to the Rays' management concerns that the new CBA has not helped them in terms of competitive balance, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- Weiner went on to say that he is "disappointed" in the Rays' attendance figures, but neither contraction nor relocation have come up as possibilities. He also says there is a curiosity to see what could happen with stadium on other side of Tampa, closer to Orlando (Twitter links).
- Mets catcher John Buck says that he's keeping himself out of the beef between his former Marlins teammates and the club's management, writes Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel. Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle have both spoken out against Miami owner Jeffrey Loria.
- Marlins hitting coach Tino Martinez says that Jake Marisnick, who was acquired in the trade with the Blue Jays, could be the best defensive center fielder in the game right now, Sherman tweets.
Quick Hits: Yankees, Cano, Lohse, Nationals
On the latest edition of the Rosters & Rumblings podcast, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith and Jason Mart.inez of MLB Depth Charts discussed Robinson Cano's contract status and the Padres' 2013 chances. Here are some links to close out this Friday evening..
- A more restrained approach to spending by the Yankees doesn't mean that they can't re-sign Cano to a hefty, long-term deal, writes MLB.com's Mike Bauman. From a competitive standpoint, the Yanks cannot afford to lose Cano considering their aging lineup and the loss of power elsewhere.
- The Kyle Lohse situation shows that not even Scott Boras can truly command the invisible hand of the market, Jack Moore of Fangraphs writes. However, Boras has found a way around this in the past with pillow contracts and Moore looks at examples including Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, and Adrian Beltre.
- Jim Callis of Baseball America takes a stab at predicting the 2016 World Series and has the Nationals topping the Rays. Callis sees the Nats' stable of first-rounders powering the club in the years to come and envisions Anthony Rendon and Lucas Giolito emerging by this time.
- The Marlins are giving non-roster invitee Michael Wuertz a chance at salvaging his career, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
Rays Links: Price, Friedman, Baggage, Beckham
Happy birthday to Rays right-hander Jeff Niemann, who turns 30 years old today. Niemann, the fourth overall pick of the 2004 draft, is looking to rebound from an injury-shortened 2012 season and has also drawn some interest on the trade market — the pitching-needy Rockies reportedly asked the Rays about Niemann's availability. Here's the latest out of Tampa Bay…
- "In a perfect world" David Price says he would love to stay with the Rays and "in a vacuum," executive VP Andrew Friedman would love to keep Price for years to come, ESPN's Jayson Stark reports. Both men, however, are realistic about the difficulties involved in keeping Price in Tampa Bay over the long term. Price is under team control through the 2015 season and recently said he wouldn't take a discount on a new multiyear deal to remain with the Rays.
- Several recent additions to the Rays roster have checkered reputations off the field, MLB.com's Matthew Leach writes, and Friedman admits to making some "calculated risks" with such players as a function of operating in a small market. "And we're much more comfortable taking them now than we probably were in '07, just having more of a developed culture. So we go through things very methodically in great detail. And there have been guys we have determined wouldn't necessarily fit in, and others that we feel like the reward far outweighs the risk," Friedman said.
- Joe Maddon is a fan of Tim Beckham, telling MLB.com's Bill Chastain that the 2008 first overall pick "has a really high ceiling as a Major League player" and sees Beckham "playing at a very high end for a very long time." Beckham, 23, hit .256/.325/.361 in 323 PA at the Triple-A level in 2012 and was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for marijuana.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith reviewed the Rays' offseason earlier today on MLBTR.
Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays addressed long-term needs with a blockbuster trade and the most lucrative contract in franchise history. They addressed short term needs with modest forays into the free agent market.
Major League Signings
- Luke Scott, UT: one year, $2.75MM.
- Kyle Farnsworth, RP: one year, $1.25MM.
- Kelly Johnson, 2B: one year, $2.45MM.
- Roberto Hernandez, SP: one year, $3.25MM.
- James Loney, 1B: one year, $2MM.
- Joel Peralta, RP: two years, $6MM. Club Options for 2015, 2016 and 2017.
- James Shields, SP: one year, $10.25MM. Club option exercised; later traded to Royals.
- Fernando Rodney, RP: one year, $2.5MM. Club option exercised.
- Jose Molina, C: one year, $1.8MM. Club option exercised.
- Total Spend: $32.25MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jack Cust, Shelley Duncan, Jamey Wright, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Jason Bourgeois, J.D. Martin, Mike Fontenot, Rich Thompson.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired IF Vince Belnome from Padres for RP Chris Rearick.
- Acquired OF Wil Myers, SP Mike Montgomery, SP Jake Odorizzi and 3B Patrick Leonard from Royals for SP James Shields, P Wade Davis and IF Elliot Johnson.
- Acquired SS Yunel Escobar from Marlins for IF Derek Dietrich.
- Acquired OF Raul Mondesi from Brewers for RP Burke Badenhop.
Extensions
- Evan Longoria, 3B: six years, $100MM. Club option for 2023.
Notable Losses
- Carlos Pena, Brooks Conrad, Jeff Keppinger, Ben Francisco, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Derek Dietrich, Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac, Burke Badenhop, Chris Rearick.
Needs Addressed
When the offseason began, it was clear that the Rays could part with David Price or James Shields in the right trade, particularly if an elite prospect such as Wil Myers or Jurickson Profar were involved. Executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was able to obtain Myers, one of the game’s best hitting prospects, for Shields, who’s under team control through 2014. While Myers will almost certainly start the season in the minor leagues, he’s expected to make an impact at the MLB level starting in 2013. From a value standpoint, six-plus years of Myers trumps two years of Shields, so it’s clear why the Rays made this deal, which also included Wade Davis, Elliot Johnson, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. However, it's likely they'll miss Shields in 2013, as Myers transitions to the MLB level.
Evan Longoria was already under team control through 2016, so locking him up for additional seasons hardly seemed like a pressing need entering the winter. That didn’t stop the Rays from adding six years and $100MM in guaranteed money to the deal, which extends their control over Longoria through 2023. There’s risk with any nine-figure deal, especially when it's between a player who appeared in just 74 games in 2012 and a team that operates with one of the most modest budgets in MLB. That said, this extension pays Longoria less than $17MM per season — Andre Ethier territory rather than Joey Votto territory. For the Rays this was a risk worth taking.
The Rays lost a first baseman, a starting infielder and a center fielder this offseason, which led to a long offseason shopping list for Friedman. The Rays will ask Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar to do what they couldn't do for the 2012 Blue Jays: match their career norms on offense while providing steady middle infield defense. However, off-field questions accompany Escobar and Johnson’s contact skills are in steady decline.
The Rays addressed other short-term needs on the free agent market, signing James Loney, Luke Scott, Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, Roberto Hernandez and Jamey Wright. Loney and Scott don’t figure to drastically alter the offense of a team that ranked 11th in the American League in scoring last year. Friedman’s annual search for bullpen reinforcements turned up some familiar names and intriguing options. Hernandez figures prominently among the Rays' buy-low arms. The right-hander had an All-Star season as recently as 2010, back when he was known as Fausto Carmona.
Questions Remaining
The Rays won’t have an imposing offense in 2013. It’s a shortcoming, but one they’re accustomed to dealing with. Jose Molina's pitch-framing skills, the versatility of Ben Zobrist and the depth of their pitching staff enable the Rays to prevent runs as well as any team (they allowed the fewest runs in MLB in 2012). As long as newcomers such as Escobar, Johnson and Loney contribute something on offense, the Rays should continue to outscore their opponents often enough to remain a threat in the AL East.
There’s also the question of health. Longoria, the Rays’ franchise player, has missed considerable time with injuries in 2011-12. And now that Shields and Davis are gone, there seems to be less room for error on the pitching staff.
Deal of Note
The Rays made a number of major moves this offseason, including the Myers-Shields trade and the Longoria extension. But in one respect, Joel Peralta’s contract with Tampa Bay was the most noteworthy of all.
Peralta’s new two-year deal includes three — yes, three — club options. He becomes the first player with at least six years of service to sign a deal with three or more club options in seven offseasons. Peralta joins Tim Wakefield (Red Sox, 2002-03) and Preston Wilson (Astros, 2005-06) as the only players with six or more years of service to sign deals with at least three club options since 2000.
The Rays have pursued club options on deals with young players in the past. Yet Peralta turns 37 next month, so this contract is out of the ordinary — even for the Rays.
Overview
Since their breakout 2008 season, the Rays have averaged 92 wins per season, reached the 90-win plateau in four of five seasons and made three postseason appearances. During that five-year period, we’ve learned not to bet against the Rays. This is far from a perfect team, though, and, as usual, the Rays enter the season with legitimate question marks on offense. Expect their run prevention to keep them in contention throughout the 2013 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Royals Notes: Shields, Davis, Tejada
The Royals are looking for their first .500 finish since 2003, and there's optimism that the team could surprise people following a busy offseason. Here are the latest Royals-related notes…
- Though the Royals were reluctant to part with Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard to acquire James Shields and Wade Davis, they made the trade. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains, club officials including GM Dayton Moore found it easier to approve the deal once they realized their farm system would still be deep.
- Moore says he learned from his former boss, longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz, that general managers must be prepared to take risks. “If you focus on what you’re giving up, you’ll never make a deal,” Moore told Rosenthal. “It will paralyze you.”
- The Royals didn't know it at the time, but the Diamondbacks, Rangers and Rays worked on a three-team trade that would have sent prospects to Tampa Bay, Shields and Davis to Arizona and Justin Upton to Texas. The Rays discussed this trade at the same time as they discussed possible deals with the Royals.
- Rival executives question Moore's decision to trade Myers, one of the game's top position player prospects, following a 72-win season. Yet as right-hander Jeremy Guthrie notes, “you can only stockpile prospects for so long.”
- The Royals face questions at second base, in the rotation and on the bench, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports. New additions Miguel Tejada and Elliot Johnson were acquired with the expectation that they'd make the team, though that's not absolute.
Rays Notes: Myers, Johnson, Escobar
The Rays allowed the fewest runs of any MLB team in 2012, posting a team ERA of 3.19. Here’s the latest on the 2013 version of the club…
- Wil Myers probably won't start the season at the MLB level, but he's still expected to make an impact with the Rays in 2013, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com writes. Rays executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said he's hesitant to create oversized expectations for young players. “The first impression has been very strong. So we’re anxious to spend the next four or five weeks around him and continue his development,” Friedman added.
- The Rays will have extended control over Myers if they delay his debut, as I showed last week. The Rays acquired the 22-year-old in the deal that sent James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City.
- Bill Chastain of MLB.com notes that second baseman Kelly Johnson and shortstop Yunel Escobar will become the first middle infielders to start together for three different teams since Jeff Kent and Jose Vizcaino, who did it for the Mets, Indians, Giants and Astros. Johnson and Escobar also played together with the Braves and Blue Jays.
Quick Hits: Phillies, Schwimer, Blue Jays, Rockies
Saturday afternoon linkage..
- Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro says that he traded Michael Schwimer to the Blue Jays earlier today because the club will have some looming 40-man roster issues and they already had excess bullpen depth, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com (on Twitter).
- Meanwhile, Schwimer says that the players' union has not closed an inquiry into whether he was optioned to the minors last season while injured, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. The Phillies said the reliever was healthy while he claims that he was dealing with a biceps issue. Schwimer can file a grievance with the union and seek lost service time and back pay up to $75K, but the outcome won't affect the Blue Jays, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (on Twitter).
- The Rockies' interest in Rays pitcher Jeff Niemann makes sense as they have had interest in him in years past and he is affordable at $3MM, writes Troy Renck of the Denver Post (Twitter links). However, Renck would be surprised if the Rockies did something before seeing the rotation cycle through a few times.
Rockies Have Inquired On Niemann, Others
The Rockies are in search of starting pitching and have checked in with the Rays about Jeff Niemann and others, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com. However, the talks have yet to reach an advanced stage.
Niemann missed the bulk of 2012 after he was struck by a comebacker off of the mound against the Blue Jays in May. The soon-to-be 30-year-old won't be eligible for free agency until 2014 and will earn a reasonable $3MM this season after avoiding arbitration with Tampa Bay. Across five big league seasons, Niemann owns a career 4.08 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.
The Rays, of course, aren't short on pitching and could afford to part with Niemann. The Rockies, meanwhile, hope to improve upon their current group of starters which includes Jhoulys Chacin, Jeff Francis, Jorge De La Rosa, Drew Pomeranz, and Juan Nicasio.
Quick Hits: Hurdle, Friedman, Braves, Gardenhire
Josh Booty has won a non-roster invitation to the Diamondbacks' Spring Training camp by emerging as the victor on The Next Knuckler, an MLB Network reality show. Booty, 37, was drafted fifth overall by the Marlins in the 1994 and accumulated just 30 Major League plate appearances with the Fish from 1996-98. Booty played third base originally but is now trying to make it back as a knuckleball pitcher.
Here's the latest from around the majors…
- Clint Hurdle is a favorite of Pirates owner Robert Nutting and has a better chance of staying with the team than GM Neal Huntington and president Frank Coonelly do if the Bucs struggle again, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Hurdle's contract was recently extended through the 2014 season.
- "It has always been hard to sustain success as a small-market team and the new CBA does not impact that very much," Andrew Friedman tells Erik Hahmann of the DRaysBay blog. "There are some interesting ideas within the new system but the overarching structure still tips the scales heavily in favor of the large markets (especially with growing revenue disparity). The key to changing that will be moving to a system that doesn't penalize small-market clubs-in the draft order, in the competitive balance lottery, in the international arena–for being successful." The Rays executive VP of baseball operations also addresses other league, management and roster topics during the interview.
- The Braves spent much more to sign B.J. Upton than the Indians did to sign Michael Bourn, but Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution feels the Braves' offseason was better served overall by moving on from their former center fielder.
- The Twins are known for their loyalty towards managers but MLB.com's Marty Noble writes that Ron Gardenhire's future with the team could be in question if Minnesota struggles again. The Twins are coming off back-to-back last place finishes in the AL Central, though these were only the second and third losing seasons of Gardenhire's 11-year tenure as skipper.
- The Royals' pitching acquisitions have left Aaron Crow with no immediate future as a starting pitcher, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes. Crow was drafted (12th overall in 2009) as a starter but has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in the majors and performed well. Crow made the 2011 All-Star team and has posted a 3.13 ERA, a 9.2 K/9 rate and a 2.45 K/BB ratio over 126 2/3 relief innings in 2011-12.
- Mark DeRosa and Henry Blanco may have limited on-field value at this stage of their careers but Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi that good chemistry is a crucial part of a winning team and that the Jays will benefit from the two veterans' clubhouse leadership.
- Baseball America's Ben Badler recaps each team's significant international signings from 2012.