Free Agent Profile: Matt Garza
Despite opening the season on the disabled list, Matt Garza looked to be in a position to claim the role of this offseason's top free agent starter. A slow finish to the season has jeopardized that thinking, but he still ranked seventh on Tim Dierkes' final edition of his 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
Strengths/Pros
A former first-round pick by the Twins, Garza hasn't posted an ERA higher than 3.95 since his initial call-up with Minnesota in 2006 — a stint that lasted just 50 innings. Only one other free agent starter — Tim Hudson — can boast seven consecutive seasons of an ERA south of 4.00, and Hudson is eight years older than Garza.
In terms of fastball velocity, Garza can bring it. He's only averaged less than 93 mph on his fastball once in his eight-year career, and that came in 2009 when he averaged 92.9 mph. Garza's 93.1 mph average in 2013 tops all free agent starters, and even his "weak" (by his standards) 2009 average would've been good enough to top the list.
He was a bit wild early in his career, but Garza has four straight seasons of a 2.9 BB/9 rate or lower, and he sat at 2.4 in 2013. Dating back to 2009, he's averaged eight strikeouts per inning on the dot, and he sat at 7.9 this season.
Garza has shined on the biggest of stages, as he owns a career 3.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 31 postseason innings. He dominated in the 2009 ALCS, yielding two runs over 13 2/3 innings in two starts en route to ALCS MVP honors.
Because he was traded midseason, Garza is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer and will therefore not be tied to draft pick compensation.
Weaknesses/Cons
Garza has been stricken with injuries over the past two years. A stress fracture in his right elbow ended his season in late July last year (and also prevented a trade), and a lat strain caused him to miss the first seven weeks of the 2013 regular season. He made all of his starts upon activation, but the simple fact is that he's thrown just 259 innings since Opening Day 2012.
While injuries prevented a trade last year, he was flipped to the Rangers midseason in 2013. As was the case when Ryan Dempster found himself flipped to Texas in 2012, Garza didn't finish very well. Though his walk rate improved and xFIP suggests that he was actually better with the Rangers than with the Cubs, he limped to a 4.38 ERA in 13 starts with Texas.
Garza seriously boosted his ground-ball rate in 2011, jumping from a pair of sub-40-percent seasons to a robust 46.3 percent. He increased that number further in 2012 with a 47.3 percent mark, but this season saw him drop back down toward his career levels. He induced grounders at a 38.6 percent clip in 2013, which is slightly lower than his already below-average career mark of 41.2 percent.
Setting aside his ugly rookie debut, Garza has a 3.75 ERA. Incredibly, advanced metrics FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at exactly 3.96 from 2007-13. Garza can be realistically counted on for an ERA under 4.00 (and in some seasons, well under 4.00 with a bit of luck), but he lacks the durability and statistical profile of the front-line pitcher many have perceived him to be.
Personal
Garza married his high school sweetheart, Serina, and they have four children together. He is known as a passionate family man who loves to spend time with his wife and children. Per the Cubs media guide, his father, Rudy, is a Sergeant Major in the Army, and baseball clearly runs in the Garza family, as his brother Michael coaches high school ball in Florida. Garza has a fiery personality that can get the better of him at times. Garza blasted some Cubs fans on Twitter early in the year, calling them "fake" in reaction to their negativity. More controversially, he took to Twitter and launched a tirade at Athletics' second baseman Eric Sogard as well as Sogard's wife. Garza publicly apologized the following day, telling reporters that he "let his competitive spirit cross outside the lines" and that his "passion" and "fire" carried over beyond the playing field.
Market
Despite questions about his recent durability and his Twitter antics, Garza is one of the most talented and consistently productive (when healthy) pitchers on the free agent market. Many teams will be involved, particularly due to the fact that unlike Ervin Santana — the top domestic pitcher on MLBTR's Free Agent Power Rankings — he won't cost a draft pick. Other names like Hiroki Kuroda, Ubaldo Jimenez and A.J. Burnett could all be linked to draft pick compensation as well.
In a recent Free Agent Faceoff conducted by MLBTR's Aaron Steen, nearly 66 percent of the 10,000+ respondents said that they would rather have their team sign Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. After factoring in the posting fee and contract, however, Garza figures to be the cheaper option. Expect to see a wide array of teams expressing interest, as more than half the teams in Major League Baseball could use a rotation upgrade.
Garza is a California native, and though he's pitched for four Major League teams — the Twins, Rays, Cubs and Rangers — he's never had the opportunity to pitch close to home. It's not clear whether that will be a factor in his decision, but plenty of West Coast teams will be looking for pitching help.
Expected Contract
Many expected Garza to be the top arm on this year's free agent market, and while some may still feel that's the case, the emergence of Tanaka and rebirth of Santana have given him some stiff competition. Garza earns points for consistency when healthy and his relative youth, both of which will be determining factors in his free agency this offseason.
He doesn't boast the durability that Edwin Jackson did when he signed his four-year contract with the Cubs, but teams won't need to worry about the tumultuous on-field results that have plagued Jackson when considering Garza. Jackson's $52MM contract is the floor for Garza in my mind. He should have little trouble surpassing it, though he and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports may have trouble finding a fifth guaranteed year thanks to the slow finish and recent injury history.
Ultimately, I think Garza will command a four-year, $64MM contract this offseason. Such a deal easily tops the four-year commitments attained by Jackson and Mark Buehrle in recent years, while still affording Garza the opportunity to sign another significant contract heading into his age-34 season in 2018. A vesting option for that fifth year is another possibility, as the biggest current issue with Garza is his durability, not his performance.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Rangers are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Neftali Feliz (4.064): $3MM
- Mitch Moreland (3.067): $2.7MM
- Alexi Ogando (3.114): $2MM
- Neal Cotts (5.041): $1.5MM
- Craig Gentry (3.084): $1.1MM
- Adam Rosales (4.049): $900K
- Travis Blackley (3.026): $600K
Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and was activated from the DL in September this year. He's expected to remain in the bullpen in 2014, and could ascend back to the closer role at some point. His salary remains low for now. Ogando's role is undecided for 2014, but injury issues could relegate him to the bullpen again. Cotts was an incredible story, and should again be an asset in the Rangers' pen as he enters his contract year at age 34. Cotts hasn't earned much in the game and seemed close to retirement at one point, so it's possible the Rangers could tack on a year at a modest salary.
Moreland, 28, is a tough tender decision. With a .232/.299/.437 line in 518 plate appearances, plus a DL stint for a hamstring injury, he didn't have the breakout year in 2013 for which the Rangers had hoped. Jose Dariel Abreu is off the market, but the team could look at free agents like Kendrys Morales, James Loney, Corey Hart, and even Mike Napoli for first base. If they make an acquisition prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, a trade or non-tender of Moreland will become more likely. Gentry had an excellent season in limited duty, and will have a role in next year's outfield.
Rosales bounced around between the A's and Rangers multiple times this year, and will probably lose his 40-man roster spot again. Blackley was removed from the Astros' 40-man roster in August, but was acquired by the Rangers and had his contract purchased. He's likely to be non-tendered as well.
Moreland is an unknown at this point, but if the Rangers tender contracts to him, Feliz, Ogando, Cotts, and Gentry, they're looking at an estimated $10.3MM for five arbitration eligible players.
Minor Moves: Nakajima, Jimenez, Lotzkar, Poreda
Here are today's minor moves from around the league…
- The Athletics have re-signed shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, Baseball America's Matt Eddy reports. Nakajima hit .283/.331/.367 in 384 PA for Triple-A Sacramento this season, his first in North America after signing a two-year, $6.5MM deal with the A's last winter. Nakajima was outrighted off Oakland's 40-man roster last August.
- Left-hander Cesar Jimenez has elected to become a free agent, as reported by the International League's transactions page. Jimenez was outrighted off the Phillies' 40-man roster to Triple-A last week. The southpaw posted a 3.71 ERA, 11 strikeouts and 10 walks over 17 relief innings for Philadelphia in 2013.
- The Rangers signed right-hander Kyle Lotzkar and lefty Aaron Poreda to minor league deals, according to the latest minor league transactions report from Baseball America's Matt Eddy (which contains many more minor transactions). Lotzkar, 23, was released by the Reds in September. A former supplemental-round pick, Lotzkar was said by Baseball America to have some of the best stuff in the Reds' organization, but he's battled through Tommy John surgery and a stress fracture in his elbow in recent years. Though his 8.05 ERA in the minors this season was alarming, he whiffed 41 batters in 38 innings and has a career 10.5 K/9.
- Poreda, 27, didn't pitch in affiliated ball this season. Formerly BA's No. 63 overall prospect and a White Sox first-rounder, Poreda has a 3.53 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in 454 career minor league innings. He reached the Majors in 2009 with both the Sox and Padres, as he was part of the haul San Diego received for Jake Peavy. BA wrote multiple times that he's "built for durability," but his lack of a true plus secondary pitch has led to many struggles.
- As shown in MLBTR's DFA Tracker, there are currently four players residing in DFA limbo: Pedro Beato of the Red Sox, Peter Moylan of the Dodgers and Tommy Layne and Colt Hynes of the Padres.
AL West Notes: Mariners, Balfour, Tanaka, Astros
There's been quite a bit of managerial buzz around the league with the large number of new openings, but all has been fairly quiet on the Mariners front until now. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Mariners will interview Athletics bench coach Chip Hale for their managerial vacancy. Hale hit .277/.346/.363 in 652 plate appearances over parts of seven Major League seasons (with all but 14 of his PAs coming in a Twins uniform). His impressive coaching background includes two years with the A's, two with the Mets and six seasons of minor league managerial experience with the D-Backs. Here's more out of the AL West…
- The Athletics are "almost certain" to let Grant Balfour depart via free agency, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee in her latest Inbox column. The A's typically don't spend big money on relievers, believing them to be too volatile a commodity. The door remains slightly open due to heavy competition for Balfour on the open market, as Joe Nathan, Joaquin Benoit, Fernando Rodney and Brian Wilson will all be free agents as well. In profiling Balfour last week, I pegged his market value at a two-year, $18MM deal.
- Within his own MLB.com Inbox column, T.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers don't think as highly of Masahiro Tanaka as they did of Yu Darvish when they acquired his services two years ago.
- The thumbprints of Astros GM Jeff Luhnow are all over the Cardinals, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. Luhnow says that he still has a bond with several of the Cardinals players he selected in the draft and tends to root for them, but he's currently focused on and excited for the Astros' future. Houston owner Jim Crane has repeatedly said that the Cards are the model franchise for the Astros.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Managerial/Coaching Links: Molitor, Dodgers, Tigers, Hale
The Twins announced today that they have added Hall of Famer and St. Paul native Paul Molitor to their Major League coaching staff. Molitor has been an oft-rumored candidate to be Ron Gardenhire's successor in the Twin Cities media, but with Gardenhire receiving a two-year extension, Molitor will oversee baserunning, bunting, infield instruction/positioning and assist with in-game strategy from the dugout. He has previously served as the Mariners' hitting coach and coached with the Twins under manager Tom Kelly in 2000-01.
Here's more on the managerial/coaching front from around the league…
- The Dodgers announced that the options of coaches Davey Lopes, Rick Honeycutt and Tim Wallach's were exercised for 2014. Hitting coach Mark McGwire was already under contract for next season. It's an apparent indication that the Dodgers would prefer for Mattingly to stay, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), as a new manager would want to have some say in his staff. However, the renewal of the coaches' contracts wouldn't preclude a promotion for Wallach (link).
- The Dodgers have fired bench coach Trey Hillman and advanced scout Wade Taylor, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Both were close with manager Don Mattingly, who said at a press conference yesterday that his return in 2014 wasn't a guarantee just because his option vested and added that he wanted his entire coaching staff to return in 2014. The dismissal of Hillman and Taylor figures to add to the tension between Mattingly and the Dodgers brass.
- Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times tweets that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti informed Hillman of his dismissal, but Mattingly, who hired Hillman, was not involved.
- John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press runs down a list of candidates for the recently vacated Tigers managerial position. Former Pirates manager and current hitting coach Lloyd McClendon is the leading in-house candidate, but Lowe contacted Dusty Baker and Eric Wedge, both of whom expressed interest in the job. GM Dave Dombrowski said yesterday that the Tigers would hire someone with either Major League or Minor League managerial experience, adds Lowe, which seemingly takes former Detroit backstop Brad Ausmus out of the running.
- The Nationals have intereviewed Blue Jays bench coach DeMarlo Hale for their managerial vacancy, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Hale is the fifth candidate interviewed by the Nats (and third external candidate). He has previously interviewed for managerial openings with the Mariners (2009), Blue Jays (2011) and Cubs (2012). Kilgore adds that the Nationals were impressed by Hale's interview.
- The Rangers announced yesterday that they have hired Tim Bogar as their bench coach. The 47-year-old Bogar spent 2012 managing the Angels' Double-A affiliate and spent the 2009-12 seasons filling the positions of Major League first base coach, third base coach and bench coach for the Red Sox.
AL Notes: Napoli, Tigers, Orioles, Ryan
Yesterday, the Associated Press reported MLB Chief Operating Officer Rob Manfred testified, during the Alex Rodriguez arbitration hearing, baseball did not concern itself if Biogenesis founder Tony Bosch distributed illegal substances to minors and was only interested in possible criminal activity involving players. Today, Manfred called the report "ridiculous" telling Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel his testimony was "totally out of context and mischaracterized" and accused the A-Rod camp of leaking the story. "The larger point is this: From our perspective, one of the reasons we pursue cases like the A-Rod case is we think players should be role models for kids," Manfred explained to Haudricourt. "It's almost comical that A-Rod, who already has admitted in the past he used steroids, would express an opinion on our stance on children and PEDs." The hearing will resume next month. In other news and notes from the American League:
- Mike Napoli's strong postseason is further proof his avascular necrosis is not an issue as he enters free agency for the second time, reports MLB.com's Lindsay Berra. Napoli was frustrated by having to settle for a one-year, $5MM deal (incentives pushed the eventual value to $13MM) after a three-year, $39MM contract was scrapped because of the AVN diagnosis. "I waited seven years for free agency and then got an opportunity, and it got taken away because of something I didn't even know I had and had never had any pain from," said Napoli. "I'm a little more confident about negotiating a contract now that I've shown all year that my hips aren't an issue, but I'm sure I'm going to have to go through all the steps again, with all the MRIs and talking to doctors."
- There are six questions the Tigers must answer this offseason, writes MLive.com's Chris Iott. Among the answers, Iott predicts Jim Leyland will return as manager, the Tigers will not re-sign Jhonny Peralta (despite his desire to remain in Detroit), but will re-sign Joaquin Benoit and Omar Infante.
- The Orioles don't have a lot of inventory to deal this winter after trading away six players in midseason acquisitions, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, and Steve Johnson head the list of tradeable players, according to Dubroff.
- Nolan Ryan left his imprint on the Rangers, especially the pitching staff, with his attitude and focus on conditioning, opines Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
- Ryan received a $10MM buyout (his ownership stake plus incentives) when he announced his retirement from the Rangers, Grant reports in separate article. However, according to Forbes, Ryan wound up losing money on his ownership investment. Ryan's original equity interest was valued at $13MM (6% ownership); but, dwindled to $7MM (1% ownership) because he declined to participate in various cash calls to cover his share of the losses the franchise incurred.
Cafardo On Tigers, Sandoval, La Russa, Blue Jays
After the Tigers were knocked out of the playoffs, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at some of the club's flaws. He starts at the top of the lineup, where Austin Jackson's .337 on-base percentage and eight stolen bases were not good enough of a contrast to the slow, power-hitting lineup that produced the best offense in baseball. Possible solutions this winter include Scott Boras clients Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury. “That’s the one team we haven’t heard Ellsbury’s name mentioned with,” said one American League GM. “We’ve heard a lot about the Mets, Mariners, Rangers, but the Tigers make perfect sense. They are a big-market team with big resources. There’s a relationship with Scott and Mr. Ilitch. They’ve done business before and there’s no reason they can’t do business again.” Here's more from today's column..
- The Giants would probably listen to anyone who had interest in Pablo Sandoval, but his weight will be an issue for clubs. However, his conditioning might not totally dissuade teams given the lack of third base options available.
- Tony La Russa is out there, but according to a Cubs source there’s been no contact with him. For his part, La Russa has told friends he’d rather be considered for a front office job than manage again.
- Two people in baseball operations with the Blue Jays indicated to Cafardo that they need two quality starting pitchers to go with Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. They could take care of one of those spots by extending a qualifying offer to Josh Johnson.
- It doesn't appear that Justin Morneau will return to the Pirates but the Orioles could make a play for him this winter as they go for another bat. If Carlos Beltran is too pricey, Morneau could be an alternative even though the O's may prefer a right-handed bat like Mike Morse.
- The Red Sox went pretty far in their pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu, but ultimately they lost out to the White Sox. It was a sensitive negotiation for Boston out of respect for pending free agent Mike Napoli, who would have been affected by an Abreu signing.
- There’s some real talk about the possibility that the Rays could see Montreal as a real alternative if plans for a new stadium don’t work out in the Tampa area.
- One of the reasons why Nolan Ryan parted ways with the Rangers was because of the club's decision to let bench coach Jackie Moore go.
- The Yankees appear to be on the verge of shaking up their scouting and player development departments.
West Notes: Rangers, Dodgers, Rockies, Astros
The Dallas Morning News' Evan Grant related comments from a radio interview with former Rangers bench coach Jackie Moore on tension that developed between GM Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan, who will step down from his positions as club president and CEO later this month. “Nolan Ryan did not have final say in the baseball part," Moore said in describing the team's baseball operations department. However, according to Grant, Ryan "never wanted final say in all baseball operations decisions." Here's more from around baseball's western divisions as we settle in for game six of the ALCS:
- The Dodgers face several contract-related decisions following their defeat at the hands of the Cardinals in the NLCS on Friday, including how they will handle their $1.4MM 2014 option on manager Don Mattingly, the Associated Press writes. The club will also continue to explore new contracts for Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez. ESPN's Buster Olney reported earlier this evening that the Dodgers offered Kershaw a $300MM contract this season.
- In a similarly themed article, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that the Dodgers' owners don't intend to spend big every season, despite recent splashes in the trade and free agent market. The club plans to shift its focus to homegrown players "sooner rather than later."
- Troy Renck of The Denver Post tweets that the Rockies' needs this winter include a veteran starter, a "big bat" and bullpen help.
- The Astros were involved in the Jose Dariel Abreu sweepstakes as part of their plan to plug some of the many holes on their roster this winter, Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reports. "We're going to operate as if we have the resources we need to improve the team," GM Jeff Luhnow said. While the club's priority is improving its relief corps, the front office is also expected to look at veteran starting pitchers and an offensive performer, according to Ortiz.
AL West Notes: Gray, Mariners, Luhnow, Ryan
Sonny Gray underwent surgery on his left thumb today and is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training, the Athletics announced via their Twitter feed. Gray said he would still be pitching if Oakland was in the ALCS, despite the tear in his thumb's UCL that he suffered on a Prince Fielder line drive in Game Five of the ALDS. The A's obviously want Gray fit for 2014 given how impressive the right-hander looked in his rookie season — Gray posted a 2.67 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 3.35 K/BB over 12 regular season games (10 starts) and then posted a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings in two postseason starts.
Here's the latest from around the AL West…
- Eric Wedge and the Mariners have different accounts of why exactly they parted ways, but CBS Sports' Jon Heyman notes it was clear that a change was necessary at manager given the differences between the two sides.
- Also in the piece, Heyman reports that the Mariners have Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo on their list of possible manager candidates.
- The Mariners aren't likely to make a play for David Price this offseason, MLB.com's Greg Johns writes as part of a reader mailbag. Seattle has been linked to Price in at least one rumor but Johns thinks if the M's are going to deal prospects for any major star, it will be for a big hitter.
- Reid Ryan, the Astros' president of business operations and Nolan Ryan's son, tells MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he hasn't spoken to his father about joining the 'Stros now that the elder Ryan has stepped down as the Rangers' CEO. Astros owner Jim Crane would be open to Ryan taking on a role with the team, saying "We have Reid here, and [Nolan] is certainly welcome as a family member to hang out with us. I like Nolan, and at some point, if Nolan wanted to do something, we're all ears."
- In AL West news from earlier today on MLBTR, you can check out Charlie Wilmoth's Offseason Outlook entry on the Rangers, a collection of Rangers notes, and Steve Adams' free agent profile of A's closer Grant Balfour.
Rangers Links: Ryan, Nathan, Napoli, Salty
Nolan Ryan accomplished a lot of good for the Rangers during his tenure as the club's president and CEO, but his retirement may also be a positive, CBS Sports' Danny Knobler writes. The Hall-of-Famer's departure will eliminate any tension that existed in upper management between Ryan and GM Jon Daniels, and Daniels knows he now has full reign over baseball decisions.
Here's the latest out of Arlington…
- The Rangers expect Joe Nathan to void their $9.5MM club option on his services for 2014 and the club will consider other internal closing options, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reports. While Daniels didn't fully close the door on re-signing Nathan, his recent comments about not committing major dollars to the bullpen seems to hint that Texas could move on from the veteran closer. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently profiled Nathan's free agency case and predicted Nathan would fetch a deal in the two-year, $26MM range this offseason.
- Also from Sullivan, he opines that former Rangers Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia could be targeted for returns to the club. Texas is looking for a right-handed bat and for a new catcher this offseason.
- Earlier today on MLBTR, Charlie Wilmoth spotlighted the Rangers in the most recent edition of our Offseason Outlook series.