- The Nationals and Red Sox have had evaluators watching White Sox players, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports. Both clubs have been scouting Jose Quintana, while the Nationals continue to have interest in closer David Robertson, and Levine figures the Sox could also be looking at Todd Frazier to address their need at third base. Chicago already completed major trades with both teams this past winter, of course, in deals that sent Adam Eaton to Washington and Chris Sale to Boston, so there is already a great deal of familiarity between these organizations. Quintana would fill the Nats’ revolving door in the fifth starter’s spot, though obtaining Robertson to help their struggling bullpen seems like the more pressing fit. The Red Sox could use Quintana and Frazier, though they seem likely to wait to see how David Price and their internal third base options return before deciding if upgrades are necessary.
Nationals Rumors
Mike Rizzo, Bryce Harper On Harper's Extension
The Nationals and Bryce Harper began working toward the one-year, $21.625MM extension the right fielder signed Saturday over the winter, general manager Mike Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (all Twitter links). The deal could end up as a slight discount for the Nationals, who believe Harper would have pushed for $25MM in arbitration next offseason if he were to win his second National League MVP this year, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter).
Looking ahead, Rizzo revealed that there haven’t been any discussions about Harper’s status beyond next season, when he’s scheduled to become a free agent. In the meantime, by settling Harper’s salary for next year, the Nationals ensured that he’ll be “comfortable” and won’t have to worry about it this season, Rizzo added. Harper agrees, saying: “It’s huge. We’re able to go into the offseason and worry about other things.” The 24-year-old also noted that anything past the 2018 campaign is “still a long way away.”
Nationals Extend Bryce Harper Through 2018
The Nationals have announced that they’ve agreed to terms with Bryce Harper on a deal for the 2018 season. Harper will receive $21.625MM, making his 2018 salary the largest ever for a player who would have been eligible for arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes (Twitter links). Harper can also receive up to a maximum of $1M in bonuses, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) — he can receive the full $1M for winning the NL MVP, $500K for second, $250K for third, $150K for fourth and $100K for fifth, and he can also receive $100K each for winning an All-Star berth, a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger. Harper was already under team control through 2018, so he can still become a free agent following the 2018 campaign.
Harper’s massive 2018 salary surely provides a bit of satisfaction for his agent Scott Boras, whose love of precedent-shattering contracts is well known. Harper is making $13.625MM in 2017, his second to last season before hitting the market. His $21.625MM salary next season gives him a big raise that’s difficult to evaluate, since so few players have come anywhere near that figure during their arbitration-eligible seasons. Jake Arrieta was the highest paid arbitration-eligible player last offseason, at $15.637MM; the year before that, Aroldis Chapman made the most, at $11.325MM. That year, Josh Donaldson agreed to a two-year extension that bought out two seasons of arbitration eligibility at $11.65MM and $17MM. In 2014-15, David Price received $19.75MM from the Tigers for his last arbitration season. The year before that, Clayton Kershaw received a salary of $4MM plus an $18MM signing bonus in agreeing to a long-term deal that bought out his last year of arbitration eligibility.
Of those, the Price and Kershaw salaries stand out as the clearest precedents for Harper’s current deal. Another is Mike Trout’s current long-term contract with the Angels. That deal is, of course, significantly different in structure and purpose than Harper’s 2018 deal, but it pays him $19.25MM for this season, which he entered with five-plus years of service time.
Harper’s $5MM 2016 salary was relatively low in part because he agreed to it following the 2014 season as part of a two-year extension that settled a grievance between with the Nats about a clause in the contract he signed upon being drafted. But Harper got a huge $8.625MM raise for 2017 (shattering MLBTR’s projection) that probably came thanks largely to his monstrous 2015 season, in which he batted .330/.460/.649 while hitting 42 home runs and winning the NL MVP award. That big 2017 salary established a baseline that led to his record-breaking deal for 2018. After somewhat of a down year in 2016 that might have been partially due to shoulder troubles, Harper has begun the 2017 season on an MVP-caliber pace yet again, hitting a ridiculous .372/.496/.717 so far.
In the past, Harper and Boras have shown intense interest in testing the free agent market rather than signing a long-term deal, and Harper’s new contract for 2018 does nothing to change that. He’ll still be eligible in the 2018-19 offseason, joining a headline-grabbing free agent class that also includes Donaldson and Manny Machado. Harper will still be just 26 at that point and could yet again set a contract record, particularly if anything resembling his current 2017 pace continues until then. Following the 2015 season, Harper suggested to a reporter that he thought he could make over $400MM on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals Activate Koda Glover, Shawn Kelley
The Nationals have activated righties Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley, per a club announcement. A.J. Cole and Matt Grace were each optioned back to Triple-A to create roster space.
The absence of Glover and Kelley had left a void at the back of the Nats’ bullpen. Washington has struggled to find an order of priority in the late innings as most of the relief unit has scuffled, but the righty pairing seemingly sits atop the closing depth chart at present.
Glover, 24, has been said at times to possess the stuff to handle the role and may be the club’s next homegrown closer. But it’s not clear he’s ready to handle the role now. Before going down with a hip impingement, Glover carried solid, though hardly dominant, numbers. He permitted four earned runs on seven hits over 8 2/3 innings, striking out six and walking one.
As for Kelley, he has landed among the league’s best in generating swinging strikes in recent years. But the 33-year-old is seen as requiring regular rest and careful handling given his history of elbow problems, so he may not be a standalone option in the ninth. Kelley has allowed five home runs in his first ten frames, but otherwise has been his typically dominant self, with 13 strikeouts against three walks.
It remains to be seen, of course, whether either of these pitchers can provide enough certainty in the ninth inning to foreclose the addition of a more-established closer at the trade deadline. If nothing else, though, their return will hopefully reduce the need to consider more drastic moves to shore up the the lead-protection unit far in advance of the summer trade period. Odds are, the Nats will be among the game’s most aggressive pursuers of quality relievers this summer.
2018 Vesting Options Update
Each year, the free-agent class is impacted by the performance of players with vesting options (as is the financial future of players with said provisions in their contract). For those unfamiliar with the option, a vesting option is typically (though not always) a club option that can automatically trigger based on the player’s health and/or performance. Meeting pre-determined criteria for games played, innings pitched and plate appearances are the most common ways of triggering a vesting option. Some also require that a player avoid the DL at the end of the season and/or for a certain number of games over the course of the year.
Here’s a look at all of the 2018 player options that can automatically trigger based on the players’ 2017 performance…
- Matt Cain: The 2017 campaign is the final season of a six-year, $127.5MM extension that Cain signed with the Giants on April 2, 2012. Prior to that point, Cain had been one of the most durable and efficient starters in the NL, but injuries have completely derailed Cain’s career since that 2012 season. Cain hasn’t thrown more than 90 1/3 innings since 2013, and so far he’s delivered just a 4.64 ERA in 455 1/3 innings over the five extra years of control the Giants bought out. If he can reach 200 innings this season and is not on the disabled list due to elbow or shoulder troubles to end the year, his $21.5MM club option would become guaranteed. However, he’s averaging fewer than 5 1/3 innings per start in 2017, and his previous health woes make that decidedly unlikely. His option comes with a $7.5MM buyout, which seems like an inevitable outcome.
- Andre Ethier: Ethier batted .273/.351/.429 through the first three seasons of his five-year, $85MM extension (including particularly strong efforts in 2013 and 2015), but he played in just 16 games last season and has been on the disabled list for the entire 2017 season (herniated disk in his lower back). His $17.5MM club option would automatically vest with 550 plate appearances this season, but that’s obviously not going to happen, so he’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout instead.
- Matt Garza: Garza’s four-year, $50MM contract with the Brewers contained one of the more convoluted vesting options in recent memory. Injury concerns surrounding Garza allowed the club to land a team option valued at a base of just $5MM. However, had Garza made 110 starts over the contract’s four years, pitched 115 innings in 2017 and avoided the DL at the end of the 2017 season, the option would’ve become guaranteed at $13MM. On the other side of the coin, the Brewers would’ve been able to pick it up at just $1MM had Garza missed 130 or more days during any single season of the contract. Neither of those scenarios will play out at this point, though. All of that is a long-winded way of saying that Garza’s option won’t be vesting at $13MM and will come at a potentially reasonable rate of $5MM.
- Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez’s five-year, $42MM extension came with a $12MM club option for the 2017 season (which was exercised) and a $12MM club/vesting option for the 2018 campaign. If the left-hander reaches 180 innings this season, he’ll be locked in at $12MM next season. For a player as durable as Gonzalez, who averaged 31 starts per year from 2010-16, that seems simple enough. But, Gonzalez has had difficulty working deep into games and has not crossed the 180-inning threshold since 2013. This season, though, he’s already racked up 44 1/3 innings through seven starts — an average of about 6 1/3 frames per outing. He’d need only 29 starts at that pace to trigger the option. And even if he doesn’t sustain that innings pace, if he can avoid the DL and average even 5 1/3 to 5 2/3 innings per start for the rest of the year, he’d accrue enough innings to guarantee that option. Of course, if Gonzalez delivers anything close to the 3.57 ERA he’s turned in through parts of six seasons as a National, the team will likely pick up the option even if it doesn’t vest.
- J.J. Hardy: Hardy decided to forgo the open market at the end of the 2014 season, instead re-upping with Orioles in early October on a three-year, $40MM deal. His contract comes with a $14MM club option ($2MM buyout) that could automatically vest in the event that Hardy reaches 600 plate appearances this season. Hardy, however, has reached that total just twice in six previous seasons with the Orioles, and he’s hitting a mere .196/.232/.252 through his first 113 plate appearances in 2017. Based on his recent health track record, it could be considered unlikely that he stays healthy enough to trigger the option. But if he does remain healthy and doesn’t turn things around at the plate, the O’s won’t have a hard time justifying a reduction in playing time to prevent the option from vesting.
- Greg Holland: Holland signed a one-year, $7MM deal with a mutual option for the 2018 season, though so long as he remains healthy it’s effectively a two-year, $22MM contract with a player option/opt-out provision. Holland’s $10MM mutual option becomes a $15MM player option if he appears in 50 total games or finishes 30 games in 2017. He’s come out of the gate roaring as a dominant closer in Colorado, just as he was in Kansas City. Holland has already finished 14 games, meaning he needs just 16 more to trigger that player option and secure the right to re-enter the open market. An injury seems like the only thing that will stand in Holland’s way, as he’s currently sporting a 1.29 ERA with a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio, a career-best 51.6 percent ground-ball rate and a 93.9 mph average fastball through his first 14 innings.
- Hisashi Iwakuma: After injury concerns stemming from Iwakuma’s physical caused the Dodgers to back out of a reported three-year, $45MM agreement in the 2015-16 offseason, Iwakuma instead returned to the Mariners on a one-year deal with a pair of vesting options. Iwakuma needed 162 innings to trigger his 2017 option, and he needed either 162 innings in 2017 or 324 innings between 2016-17 to trigger his $10MM option for the 2018 season. The 36-year-old racked up 199 innings last year, meaning he now needs just 125 innings in 2017, though he must also avoid the disabled list at season’s end as well. Iwakuma has barely averaged five innings per outing (31 through six starts), but he also needs just 94 more innings this year for that option to kick in.
- Ricky Nolasco: Nolasco’s option isn’t a standard vesting option, but his $13MM club option would become a player option with 400 innings pitched between 2016-17. The 34-year-old logged 197 2/3 innings last year, meaning he’d need 202 1/3 innings in 2017 in order to convert his option. That’s a total that Nolasco has reached only twice in his career, and he’s not on pace to approach that number through his first seven starts of the season. If Nolasco were to make the same number of starts as last season (32), he’d need to average nearly 6 2/3 innings per outing for the rest of the season to reach that level. If he ties his career-high with 33 starts, he’d need to average 6 1/3 frames through season’s end. It’s technically possible that Nolasco does end up with a $13MM player option, but the likelier scenario is that the Halos will choose between a $13MM club option and a $1MM buyout. (Thanks to MLBTR commenters paytoplay and jdobson1822 for pointing out Nolasco’s option.)
Cot’s Contracts was used in the creation of this post.
Nats Still Determining Jacob Turner's Role
- The Nationals are weighing whether to keep right-hander Jacob Turner in their struggling bullpen or use him as their fifth starter, writes Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. Turner has fired six shutout innings in the bullpen but has also impressed the team in a starting role, Castillo notes. The five-spot in the rotation comes up next on Thursday, and Washington’s other option for that outing in Baltimore is right-hander A.J. Cole. Castillo notes, however, that Cole was hit fairly hard by the Phillies this weekend despite escaping with just one run allowed. Right-hander Joe Ross, who was optioned to Triple-A last week, is slated to pitch for Syracuse tonight, so he’s seemingly not an option.
- Since surrendering back-to-back-to-back homers to blow a save against the Dodgers a bit more than a week ago, Hector Neris has once again ramped up the usage of his splitter, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer points out. Gelb notes that 30 of the 43 pitches Neris has thrown since that meltdown have been splitters. The Phillies have “implored” Neris to throw his splitter, which is his best pitch, with more and more frequency, Gelb adds. “The more he uses it, the more hitters have to worry about it, and they can’t sit on his fastball,” says manager Pete Mackanin. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki notes that during Neris’ shakiest stretch this season, he was throwing 40 percent splitters against 60 percent four-seam fastballs. Neris looks to be back on track, and it doesn’t seem as if there’s any real thought in making a ninth-inning change in Philadelphia at this time. (Reminder to fantasy players: you can track all of the latest ninth-inning drama by following MLBTR’s @closernews account on Twitter.)
Jeremy Guthrie Not Pursuing Contract
Veteran right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, who elected free agency after being outrighted by the Nationals earlier this season, is not actively seeking an opportunity to sign with another team, according to MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman. The 38-year-old didn’t go so far as to use the word “retire” during an excellent, lengthy interview with Zuckerman, but he also spoke like a man whose playing days could be behind him.
Guthrie’s lone start with the Nationals was memorable, although certainly not in the way that any pitcher would want to be remembered. Pitching on his 38th birthday, Guthrie was rocked for 10 runs in just two-thirds of an inning — a disastrous outcome for a pitcher that had turned in an outstanding Spring Training and forced himself into consideration for a 40-man roster spot.
“That start has not been something easy for me to let go,” Guthrie tells Zuckerman. “I wanted to end on a good note. I wanted to go out on my terms.”
Prior to that outing, Guthrie had tossed 18 2/3 innings for the Nats in the spring, posting a 2.41 ERA with a strong 15-to-5 K/BB ratio. The performance was impressive enough, Zuckerman writes, that GM Mike Rizzo promised Guthrie he’d start the team’s fifth game of the season (despite not technically being placed onto the roster out of camp, thus allowing the Nats to briefly carry an extra reliever). Guthrie was well aware that he’d be designated and sent back to Triple-A no matter how he fared, Zuckerman continues, though he’d have been considered for future spot starts and opportunities with the club had he performed well.
“I had a conversation with Mike Rizzo during the game, in the clubhouse, where he was positive and kind,” Guthrie tells Zuckerman. “But he didn’t sugarcoat the devastating blow that game meant to my future.”
Similarly, Guthrie doesn’t sugarcoat his own take of his brutal start to the season, telling Zuckerman, ” I was realistic with myself enough to know that was the type of outing that could completely change what had transpired the prior six weeks.”
Zuckerman’s column is rife with honest, candid quotes from Guthrie that serve as a poignant reminder of the human component of the game that is often easy to forget. The decision not to return to Triple-A Syracuse does not seem like one which Guthrie took lightly, as he details the amount of thought that both he and his wife put into the decision.
I’d highly recommend that MLBTR readers give it a full read — especially those who were fans of Guthrie during his more successful years earlier. Nats fans, too, will want to give it a look, as Guthrie offers nothing but praise for the entire organization, from the front office to the training staff to the current roster of players in D.C. “I would tell every player, if they have the chance, to come play for them,” says Guthrie.
It’s possible that Guthrie again feels the urge to seek out one last shot at a Major League roster, but if this is indeed the end of his career, he has little to hang his head about. Guthrie spent parts of 13 seasons in the Major Leagues, pitching to a 4.42 ERA over the life of 1765 1/3 innings between the Indians, Orioles, Rockies, Royals and Nationals. He made three starts for the Royals in the 2014 postseason, including two in the World Series, and he received a World Series ring for his time with the 2015 Royals.
Guthrie may never have been a front-line starter, but he was a durable workhorse for the Orioles and Royals for the better part of seven seasons. From 2008-14, he averaged 32 starts and 201 innings per year. Guthrie earned nearly $47MM in his career, between his $3MM signing bonus as the No. 22 overall pick in 2002 and the player contracts he’d go on to take home. Baseball-Reference pegs his career at 17.9 wins above replacement, while RA9-WAR had him at 20.4.
Nationals Place Shawn Kelley On 10-Day DL
The Nationals have placed righty Shawn Kelley on the 10-day DL with a lower back strain. Kelley has been out with illness, but his “back flared up” while he was warming up to see if he felt well enough to pitch tonight, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com explains. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by southpaw Matt Grace.
While it seems reasonable to hope that Kelley wont be out for too long, the news means the team will be without its de facto closer for at least another week. The DL placement was backdated to May 2. Of course, now that the move has been made, the Nats will no doubt make sure he’s not activated until fully healed.
The Nats’ closing situation is as questionable as ever. While Kelley has been unusually homer prone through his ten innings, he has looked himself in the K/BB department (13:3) and is probably the team’s best option. But it has never been the organization’s preference to utilize him in that capacity.
Youngster Koda Glover is nearing his own return from the DL, and may be the favorite to take over the ninth when he’s back. Until he’s activated, the club could be forced to turn over their ninth-inning leads to Enny Romero, Matt Albers, or one of the team’s two struggling relievers (Blake Treinen and Joe Blanton) who had been expected to handle high-leverage work.
It’s arguable that the injury could increase the pressure on the Nats front office to strike an earlier-than-usual deal for a replacement. With the team playing well anyway, though, paying a major premium to get a closer now still seems unlikely. At some point, though, Washington figures to boost its late-inning mix via trade.
Latest On Koda Glover, Sammy Solis
- The Nationals have thrived despite subpar work from their bullpen, but the team would no doubt prefer to see some improvement. It would surely help to get Koda Glover and Sammy Solis back from the DL, though as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter links), the outlook seems better for the former than the latter. Glover, who’s out with a hip issue, says he expects to return after the minimum ten days on the DL. But Solis has yet to begin playing catch. While there’s still no reason to fear a significant injury, elbow nerve inflammation has yet to subside.
Nationals Option Joe Ross; Jacob Turner Stepping Into Rotation
11:14am: The Nats have now announced the move, adding that right-hander A.J. Cole has been recalled from Syracuse to fill the vacant roster spot. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com points out (via Twitter), Cole will need to sit for three games before he’s eligible to pitch, as he still needs to complete a five-game suspension that was issued to him last year for throwing at Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang.
11:04am: The Nationals made the somewhat surprising decision to option right-hander Joe Ross to Triple-A Syracuse following yesterday’s game, per the team’s transactions page at MLB.com. While the club has yet to formally announce the move, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post confirms that Ross has indeed been optioned out, adding that right-hander Jacob Turner will join the rotation for the time being.
Ross was optioned to Triple-A to open the season as well, though that move was made largely due to the fact that the team didn’t need a fifth starter early in the year, and it also afforded the Nationals a chance to briefly limit the young righty’s innings. This move, however, is more about the Nationals’ desire for Ross to improve his changeup, according to Janes. Ross has been clobbered by lefties in three starts this season and has struggled against left-handed bats throughout his young career, yielding a .301/.374/.469 batting line to opponents that hold the platoon advantage.
That said, it’s still a bit curious to see Ross sent down. Platoon issues notwithstanding, he entered the season with a career 3.52 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 45.5 percent ground-ball rate through 181 2/3 Major League innings. And while he’s struggled in his past two starts, one of those outings came at Coors Field. Beyond that, Turner has a limited track record in the Majors, having struggled to a 5.09 ERA through 330 innings, though Turner did show well in his own start in Colorado this season (six innings, three runs on six hits and no walks with six strikeouts).
It’s not clear if the demotion of Ross is a short-term move or if he’ll be left to sort things out in the minors for a lengthier stay. It doesn’t seem likely, however, that Ross would stay in the minors long enough to delay his path to free agency, as that’d require a Triple-A stint that spanned the majority of the season. Ross entered the 2017 campaign with one year, 94 days of service time and has already accrued 13 more days of service with his late-April promotion. As such, he needs 65 more days in the Majors to reach two full years of service time, which would keep him on pace to become a free agent following the 2021 season.
The corresponding move for Ross isn’t yet known, though Janes notes that it’ll likely be a reliever. Current options on the 40-man roster include Austin Adams, Trevor Gott and Rafael Martin, while veterans Joe Nathan and Neal Cotts are both in Syracuse on minor league deals.
