Yu Darvish Generating Trade Interest
While Kris Bryant has been the focal point of most Cubs trade speculation this winter, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that right-hander Yu Darvish‘s name “seems out there in trade talks,” though he cautions that it could be little more than a matter of due diligence as the Cubs keep an open mind. Heyman adds that he spoke to a pair of executives with two other clubs, neither of whom expects a trade to ultimately come together.
All of that said, it’s worth breaking down the Darvish scenario a bit more extensively. First and foremost, it’s not surprising to see Darvish or any other high-priced Cubs player pop up on the rumor circuit. Changes to the team’s core looked inevitable heading into the current offseason, given the dwindling control remaining for so many key players. The Cubs already non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, and ESPN’s Buster Olney reported in mid-November that the Cubs were at least open to talks on “almost” any veteran player on their club. Even prior to that, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes laid out the possibility of a Darvish trade in his Offseason Outlook for the Cubs.
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts has publicly lamented his lack of available resources, even prior to the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated revenue losses. While few fans sympathize much with Ricketts’ efforts to explain the plight of the misunderstood MLB owner, his repeated comments are still notable and have been reflected in the team’s actions — or lack thereof. The Cubs’ lone major signing dating back to the 2018-19 offseason has been an in-season deal for Craig Kimbrel, which only came to pass after Chicago unexpectedly was spared some of its commitment to Ben Zobrist after the infielder/outfielder left the club for personal reasons. Beyond that, the Cubs’ combined spending in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 offseasons totaled just $14.25MM.
Given that context and the fact that Darvish is owed $62MM over the final three seasons of his contract, it’s only natural that the team would at least entertain offers on the righty. However, while the Darvish deal looked like a regrettable, potential albatross contract after an injury-ruined 2018 season, that’s no longer the case — and the asking price in any trade talks would surely reflect the right-hander’s turnaround.
Since that dismal first year of the contract, Darvish has not only bounced back but pitched at the most effective levels of his MLB career. Over his past 32 starts, Darvish has tallied 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. He was dominant in 2020, posting a career-best 2.01 ERA with a 93-to-14 K/BB ratio in 76 innings en route to a second-place finish in NL Cy Young voting. Darvish also has a 12-team no-trade clause, which could throw a wrench into various potential destinations.
A trade of Darvish would serve as not only a means of shedding payroll at a time when ownership has clearly been looking to curb spending, but also as a means of adding controllable just as the team’s World Series core is on the cusp of disbanding due to free agency. It’s easy to imagine any package for Darvish beginning with an MLB-ready starter who is controlled for five-plus seasons, with multiple quality prospects and/or young big leaguers then being added to the equation. Removing the $23MM owed to Darvish in 2021 from the payroll could also free up some resources to address other needs via free agency or trade.
Viewed through that lens, a Darvish trade seems practical, if somewhat painful for a club that has been a regular presence at or near the top of the NL Central over the past half decade. On the other hand, that track record of winning and a still-talented core underline the argument against trading Darvish away.
The Cubs may have been bounced from the postseason in surprising fashion by an upstart Marlins club in 2020, but this team still finished 34-26 and won the National League Central. Schwarber’s non-tender aside, the majority of that division-winning core is intact, and rebounds for some combination of Cubs stars who struggled — Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo — should be expected.
Trading Darvish unequivocally weakens a roster that still looks capable of contending in a division that no team seems to want to seize. The Pirates are rebuilding. The Cardinals are paring back payroll and mulling whether they can retain icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. The Reds have cut costs considerably in the bullpen and are at least listening to offers on their top starters. The Brewers aren’t expected to spend aggressively.
Some degree of turnover and change on the Chicago roster still seems quite plausible, but it’s also possible that a continued lack of aggression in St. Louis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee could motivate the Cubs to keep the bulk of their core intact, recognizing that the NL Central appears to be largely up for grabs. The Cubs currently project to carry a payroll of about $157MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with only about $164MM of luxury-tax considerations on the books at the moment.
Cubs Sign Matt Duffy To Minors Deal
The Cubs have signed infielder Matt Duffy to a minors deal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The pact comes with a $1MM major league salary and up to $500K in incentives.
The 29-year-old Duffy is best known for his time in the majors with the Giants and Rays from 2014-19. Duffy picked up 1,771 plate appearances during that stretch and hit a solid .282/.338/.380 with 22 home runs and 32 stolen bases. At his best, Duffy was a 4.4-fWAR player as part of the Giants in 2015, when he slashed .295/.334/.428 with career highs in homers (12) and steals (12) in 612 trips to the plate.
Duffy was a good producer as recently as 2018, though he struggled the next season during an injury-shortened year and hasn’t played in the majors since. He spent time with the Giants and Yankees on minor league contracts last season, but he wasn’t able to get back to the majors with either club. Primarily a third baseman, Duffy is now a member of a Cubs team with a clear starter there in Kris Bryant, though he has been the subject of trade rumors for a while and could move before next season begins.
Cubs, James Bourque Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league pact with righty James Bourque and invited him to Major League Spring Training, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). The 27-year-old Bourque appeared to be in line to get a look with the Nats in September, but an elbow strain landed him on the IL and limited him to four innings. The Nats removed Bourque from the 40-man roster after the season drew to a close, and he opted for free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment.
A 14th-round pick in 2014, Bourque ranked near the back end of the Nationals’ top 30 farmhands in recent years due largely to a power fastball that sits in the mid 90s and an above-average curveball. Control has increasingly become an issue for Bourque as he’s advanced through the minors and faced better competition, but his strikeout rates have also climbed. In 117 innings from 2018-19, Bourque whiffed 162 batters in just 117 innings — good for 12.5 K/9 and a 32.5 percent overall strikeout rate. He also averaged 4.8 BB/9 with a 12.4 percent walk overall walk rate.
Bourque is the second bullpen flier in as many days for the Cubs, who yesterday agreed to a non-guaranteed, Major League deal with former Yankees setup man Jonathan Holder. Chicago hasn’t spent much on the bullpen at all in recent years outside of a one-time splash with Craig Kimbrel that hasn’t panned out, and the team has also struggled to develop consistently productive arms. As such, there are several spots up for grabs in a largely unsettled bullpen mix, creating Spring Training opportunities for Bourque, Holder and any other speculative adds by new president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer.
Cubs To Sign Jonathan Holder
The Cubs have agreed to sign right-handed reliever Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract, Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. It’s a one-year, $750K deal, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Holder will have a chance to earn another $150K in incentives, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
The Cubs will be the second major league organization for Holder, a 2014 sixth-round pick of the Yankees who appeared in the bigs in each of the previous five seasons. Holder was at his best from 2017-18 – a 104 1/3-inning run in which he registered a 3.45 ERA/3.22 FIP with 8.54 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9. However, the 27-year-old’s production has declined precipitously since then.
In 60 1/3 frames since 2019, Holder has logged a 5.82 ERA/4.85 FIP, owing in part to an increase in walks and home runs. Holder is now coming off a season in which he recorded career worsts in K/9 (5.82) and BB/9 (4.57), which helped lead to an undesirable 4.98 ERA/5.22 FIP in 21 2/3 innings. The Yankees non-tendered Holder after the season in lieu of paying him a projected $900K to $1MM in arbitration, but he’ll now try to get back on track with the Cubs.
Boras On MLB Finances, Season Length, Bryant, A’s, Universal DH
Agent Scott Boras and MLB disagree over whether the league’s teams lost money during the pandemic-shortened, spectator-less 2020 season. Speaking with Jon Heyman of MLB Network and other reporters Tuesday, Boras declared that clubs “lost profits” last season, but they didn’t lose money. Per Heyman, a league spokesman responded that “clubs lost $3B — $100M per team.” It now appears the league and the players side are in for another few months of disagreement over whether to play a full schedule in 2021. MLB reportedly wants to push the season back, which would mean a second straight shortened season. That would cost the players money, though, so they’re currently not open to the idea of playing fewer than 162 games next year.
Boras, for his part, remains upset that the league’s teams only played 60 games in 2020. “I was very disappointed we didn’t play 100 games at minimum, 120 games, in 2020,” he said (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Boras is of the belief the league can return to its normal slate going forward, as he stated: “We now know we can play the game and we can do it safely. And with the vaccine coming, we can play it at an even higher level of safety. It’s not a question of whether we can do it. We’ve already done it. That unknown has been erased.”
The ever-outspoken Boras had plenty more to say during his discussion with the media. Here are some other highlights…
- Boras asserted that the low-budget Athletics will need “an insurgence of a small amount of money” in order to sustain success, and they can’t simply rely on a potential new stadium for that, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. That “insurgence” doesn’t appear as if it’s coming this offseason. According to Slusser, the A’s have been telling agents that they don’t have much to spend, which is especially alarming for a team facing the losses of several key free agents (Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks and Tommy La Stella are among them). In better news for the club, Boras announced that third baseman Matt Chapman has been cleared for increased activity and should be ready for spring training. Chapman underwent hip surgery in September, at which point Boras said he’d need 12 to 16 weeks to recover.
- Although Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has been the subject of trade rumors this offseason, Boras seems to be under the impression he’ll remain with the team for another year, per Heyman. On Bryant’s future, Boras said (via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune): “That question probably will be very clearly addressed at the end of ‘21, because we’re going to know a lot more about what Jed (Hoyer) wants to do, and also about the continuance of Kris Bryant’s excellence in a baseball uniform.” The Cubs would be selling low on the former MVP, who’s due a projected $18.6MM salary in his final season of team control. Many clubs may deem that too rich after Bryant endured uncharacteristic struggles last season.
- Likewise, Boras doesn’t expect the Rays to trade left-hander Blake Snell.
- MLB introduced the universal designated hitter in 2020, but even with free agency underway, there has been no official word on whether it will return next year. Boras advocated for it to come back and took a shot at the lack of clarity from the commissioner’s office, saying, “Maybe in the commissioner’s office, the DH may stand for dragging their heels.” He also believes it’s “absolutely necessary” for the league to stick with expanded rosters (via Tyler Kepner of the New York Times and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).
Mike Rizzo: Nationals Not Pursuing Kris Bryant Trade
Reports last month mentioned Kris Bryant as a potential Nationals trade target, but Washington GM Mike Rizzo rather definitively ruled out a Bryant swap during a session with reporters (including ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers) this afternoon.
“We haven’t had a serious conversation about Kris Bryant in probably two years,” Rizzo said. “He was not a big guy on our radar last year or this year. He’s a great player but at this point and time of where we’re at, and what we have in our farm system, and where we’re going, we think we can allocate our dollars and prospect capital in another way.”
As Rogers noted, it’s something of an “unusual step” for a general manager to so publicly and specifically comment on trade negotiations. It could be that this is some gamesmanship on Rizzo’s part if talks with the Cubs are actually still ongoing, though there’s no real reason to believe Rizzo is being anything but forthright in his comments.
Bryant is, after all, coming off the worst of his six MLB seasons, as he battled injuries throughout 2020 and hit only .206/.293/.351 over 147 plate appearances. While it isn’t hard to imagine Bryant returning to his old form with better health next season and with a more measurable sample size of playing time, counting on such a rebound year might not be a risk that the Nats want to take — especially since Bryant is projected to earn an $18.6MM salary in 2021, his final year of arbitration eligibility.
It isn’t yet known if Washington can fully stretch its payroll this offseason, but there have been indications that the Nationals are able to spend some money, if not something in the neighborhood of $18.6MM to one player for one season. The Nats were connected to Carlos Santana before he signed with the Royals, and the District has also showed interest in a former Bryant teammate in Kyle Schwarber.
Cubs, Phillies Interested In Jackie Bradley Jr.
Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s market continues to percolate, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets that the Cubs and Phillies are the latest teams to be linked to the free agent outfielder.
Bradley is a known quantity to Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski from their time together with the Red Sox, and Bradley would address a big need for the Phils in center field. The tandem of Roman Quinn and Adam Haseley are penciled into the center field job at the moment, but installing an everyday veteran like Bradley would both solidify the position and provide a big defensive upgrade. Bradley’s left-handed bat would also be useful in a Philadelphia lineup that leans to the right.
Ian Happ provided both strong offense and some decently respectable (+1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.6 UZR/150) glovework as the Cubs’ regular center fielder in 2020, but Bradley obviously offers a lot more defensive value up the middle. Now that Kyle Schwarber has been non-tendered, Happ could easily be shifted over to left field to accommodate Bradley in center. Given the number of former Red Sox personnel within the Cubs organization, Bradley would also find a lot of familiar faces in Wrigleyville — to name two, manager David Ross and assistant general manager Craig Breslow were both former teammates in Boston.
Beyond Philadelphia and Chicago, four other clubs (the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros, and an unknown AL Central team) have also reportedly shown interest in Bradley’s services at various points in the offseason. Toronto has also been heavily linked to George Springer, while the Astros haven’t yet ruled out a reunion with Springer, and the Red Sox and Phillies could also potentially be in the mix, though it isn’t yet clear how much money either of those teams are willing to spend this offseason. Bradley could be seen as a “plan B” type of center field options for many Springer suitors, and he could be more of a primary target for a team like the Cubs that isn’t thought to have much payroll space available. While not exactly an inexpensive sign, Bradley’s projected price tag could be as much as $100MM less than Springer’s next contract.
Quick Hits: Suzuki, Angels, Diamondbacks, Cubs
The Angels are interested in free agent catcher Kurt Suzuki, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Los Angeles was in on James McCann before he agreed to terms with the Mets, and it seems the front office is still looking to add to the position. The 37-year-old Suzuki has been an average or better hitter for four consecutive seasons, putting up a cumulative .272/.337/.475 line since the start of 2017. That has helped to offset his subpar pitch framing and arm behind the plate. Suzuki spent the 2017-18 seasons with the Braves; new Angels GM Perry Minasian was in the Atlanta front office for the second of those years. Currently, Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom stand as the only backstops on the Angels’ 40-man roster.
Some more from around the sport:
- Also from Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks are prioritizing bullpen help and are in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder. That lines up rather directly with the types of players Arizona sold off at last summer’s trade deadline. Starling Marté, Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin were all sent elsewhere after the D-Backs fell out of the playoff picture. (Bradley and Chafin are now free agents, so nothing prohibits the Arizona front office from pursuing reunions with either player if they’re so inclined). After doling out multi-year deals for Madison Bumgarner, Nick Ahmed and David Peralta last offseason, Arizona doesn’t figure to play at the top of the market this winter, Rosenthal feels. That probably rules out a Liam Hendriks pursuit, but there are plenty of lower-cost relievers available on the open market.
- Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are looking to add starting pitching this offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic). There are some question marks behind Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation. Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay and Colin Rea are among a handful of in-house options who could help fill out the back end, but there’s obvious room for an addition or two. Hoyer also pointed out the uncertainty involved with relying on the same five-man rotation throughout 2021 after pitchers’ workloads were curtailed during this past shortened season. Many teams have to rely on eight to ten starters to weather underperformance and/or injuries in a normal season. A 162-game season next year would present its own unique set of workload challenges on top of that typical attrition.
Cubs Notes: Bryant, Lester, Adduci
A few items centering on the Cubs…
- Third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has frequently come up as a trade candidate this offseason, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Thursday that there is “absolutely” a way he’ll return to the team next year, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. “I don’t think it should be treated as a fait accompli that [a trade is] going to happen,” added Hoyer, who expects Bryant to bounce back to his usual form after a 2020 season in which his production fell flat. The Cubs would be selling low on Bryant in a deal as a result of his adverse year, and his projected $18.6MM arbitration salary for 2021 (his final season of team control) doesn’t do his trade value any favors.
- The Cubs have not had “substantive conversations” regarding a new deal with free-agent left-hander Jon Lester, but neither side has closed the door on staying together, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes. Lester established himself as a Cubs icon from 2015-20, but after he struggled last season, the Cubs predictably bought out the soon-to-be 37-year-old for $10MM instead of paying him $25MM. They’re now down to Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks as their only proven starters for next season, though that could change as the offseason progresses.
- First baseman/outfielder Jim Adduci had two stints in the Cubs organization, but it appears his playing career is over, as he’s now moving on to another role in baseball. The Cubs have hired the 35-year-old as their run production coordinator, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Adduci, whom the Rangers selected in the 42nd round of the 2003 draft, played from 2013-19 in the bigs and also saw time in the Korea Baseball Organization.
Cubs To Hire Willie Harris As Third Base Coach
The Cubs will hire Willie Harris as their new third base coach, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Buster Olney of ESPN first reported the job was likely to go to Harris. He’ll take over for Will Venable, who left to become Boston’s bench coach.
The 42-year-old Harris is best known for a long major league career that spanned from 2001-12. The former infielder/outfielder played for several teams during that run and won a World Series title with the White Sox in 2005.
Since his playing career ended, Harris has held multiple coaching positions. He first managed the Giants’ Double-A affiliate in 2018 before joining the Reds organization as a baserunning and outfield coordinator the next year. Harris’ hiring with the Cubs will complete manager David Ross’ staff for 2021.