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MLBTR Poll: Potential Shakeup For Cubs

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This could be an offseason of significant change for the Cubs, who may be looking to shake things up after a disappointing finish to the 2020 campaign. The Cubs earned their first NL Central title since 2017, but they succumbed to the upstart Marlins in a two-game sweep during the wild-card round. Now, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein could be looking to reinvent the Cubs’ roster. As Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend, the Cubs are willing “to move almost any veteran.”

It seems more likely that any major subtractions will come from the Cubs’ lineup, not their pitching staff, which features 2020 Cy Young contender Yu Darvish and the bargain-priced Kyle Hendricks. It looks even less probable that reliever Craig Kimbrel, who’s owed a guaranteed $17MM through next season, will end up in a trade.

On the offensive side, it’s realistic to think that any of catcher Willson Contreras, shortstop Javier Baez, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or left fielder Kyle Schwarber could be on the move. All of those players have been staples for the Cubs for years, but their days could be numbered if the team’s looking to cut payroll and tinker with its lineup.

The 28-year-old Contreras is coming off his fifth straight productive campaign and, as someone who should make between $5MM and $7.4MM in his second-last season of arbitration, would have value in a trade. Baez was a star middle infielder from 2018-19, but the 27-year-old’s production cratered this past season, and he’ll earn around $11MM in his final trip through arbitration. The 28-year-old Bryant, like Baez, went through a surprisingly difficult 2020. A former NL MVP, Bryant may even be a non-tender candidate, as he’s slated to earn approximately $19MM in his last year of arbitration control. Schwarber, who’s due anywhere from $7MM to $9.3MM, could also be a high-profile non-tender in the wake of a poor season.

Ideally for the Cubs, they’ll be able to find takers for any of these players if they actually are considering moving on from them. Whether it’s via trade or non-tender, though, which player from the Contereras-Baez-Bryant-Schwarber group do you think the Cubs are most likely to get rid of this offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Which player are the Cubs most likely to get rid of this winter?
Bryant 59.45% (8,999 votes)
Schwarber 27.38% (4,144 votes)
Contreras 8.21% (1,242 votes)
Baez 4.96% (751 votes)
Total Votes: 15,136

Cubs Open “To Move Almost Any Veteran” In Trades

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For the third straight offseason, the Cubs are indicating that some roster shuffling could be in order, and they seem closer than ever before to making some notable moves.  As per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required), the Cubs have told other teams that “significant turnover” is coming, and “the Cubs are signaling…a willingness to move almost any veteran.”

Javier Baez is reportedly one of the players Chicago is open to at least hearing offers for, which is significant since Baez has been the member of the Cubs core group most often discussed as an extension candidate, rather than as a trade chip.  Baez’s extension talks with the Cubs last offseason didn’t really go anywhere, however, and any attempts at further progress were impeded first by the pandemic and the transactions freeze, and then possibly by Baez’s struggles once the 2020 season got underway.  The shortstop hit only .203/.238/.360 with eight homers over 235 plate appearances, easily his worst performance since his 2014 rookie season.

Taking a look at the Cubs’ pricier veterans, Baez, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber are all arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter before being eligible for free agency, while catcher Willson Contreras is heading into the second of three arb-eligible years.  Anthony Rizzo is under contract through the 2021 season, Craig Kimbrel is guaranteed through 2021 with a $16MM club/vesting option for 2022, and Yu Darvish, Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote are all locked up through at least the 2023 season on longer-term contracts.

Naturally, the phrasing of “almost any veteran” means some trades are more realistic than others.  While a case could be made for the Cubs to sell high on Darvish or Hendricks, for instance, the team is also counting on them as long-term anchors for the rotation, so it’s probably less likely that either of those two pitchers are moved.  Also, in terms of pure due diligence, most front offices are usually open (to some extent) to discuss trades for almost any player, just in case another team comes along with a truly stupendous offer.

The Cubs also made little in the way of noteworthy transactions in either of the past two winters, despite Theo Epstein’s past hints that bigger moves were necessary.  With all these caveats in mind, however, it does seem like the Cubs are finally approaching some level of wider-scale shakeup, as the loss of revenues due to the pandemic may have forced the team’s hand.  Nothing can really be ruled out, whether it’s trading only one highly-paid veteran, or perhaps moving several such players in order to cut payroll.

NL Notes: Nationals, Wood, Hoffman, Padres, Cubs

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Alex Wood was a target for the Nationals at the 2019 trade deadline, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “nearly acquired” the southpaw, who was then a member of the Reds.  The timing is interesting, as back injuries prevented Wood from making his 2019 debut until July 28, just three days prior to the deadline.  While Wood ended up making seven starts for Cincinnati that season, it’s fair to assume that the Nationals may been considering him as a reliever (or a swingman) given the dire state of Washington’s bullpen at the time.

Needless to say, the Nats don’t regret how things turned out for them at the 2019 deadline, as July 31 acquisition Daniel Hudson played a critical role in Washington capturing the World Series.  But with Wood now a free agent and the Nationals looking for some veteran pitching depth, GM Mike Rizzo could very well revisit the idea of adding the left-hander to the D.C. roster.  Wood was again hampered by injuries in 2020, tossing only 12 2/3 innings for the Dodgers during the regular season and posting a 6.39 ERA.  However, his campaign ended on the high note of a World Series ring and a 1.35 ERA (one run in 6 2/3 relief innings) in four postseason outings.

More from around the senior circuit…

  • The Padres announced that longtime third base coach Glenn Hoffman is retiring from coaching for a new position as a senior advisor in San Diego’s baseball operations department.  Hoffman has been a mainstay in the Padres’ third base box for the last 15 seasons, coming on the heels of seven seasons as the Dodgers’ third base coach (and a stint as the Dodgers’ interim manager in 1998, as Hoffman led the team to a 47-41 record).  As per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, bench coach Bobby Dickerson seems to be the favorite to take over third base coaching duties.
  • The Cubs will be looking for more pitching depth this winter, though Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that four rotation spots may be settled, to some extent.  Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are obviously entrenched atop the starting five, and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sounds comfortable on Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay taking up the next pair of rotation spots.  There have been questions about Alzolay’s ability to stick in the rotation, but the Cubs were apparently impressed enough with the improvement of his slider to regard him as a starter.  Youngsters Tyson Miller, Brailyn Marquez, and Justin Steele will get a shot at the fifth starter’s role, but Chicago is also looking outside the organization at the middle-to-bottom tier of free agent pitchers, depending on what the Cubs decide to do with the rest of their roster.  Epstein has left open the possibility of bringing Jon Lester back on a short-term deal, but the Cubs are comfortable letting him test the market.

Minasian, Hollander Finalists For Angels GM Job

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11:29pm: Minasian is seen as the “front-runner,” Rosenthal tweets.

11:03pm: The Angels have narrowed their search for a new GM. They’ll choose between Braves assistant GM Perry Minasian and Mariners AGM Justin Hollander, according to Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (via Twitter).

Other serious candidates included Jason McLeod of the Cubs and Jared Porter of the Diamondbacks. Both were among the finalists recently removed from consideration, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Another Arizona exec, Amiel Sawdaye, was also among the finalists, Rosenthal adds.

It seems we’ll soon know which of the remaining candidates will get the gig. The Halos will likely announce their choice tomorrow, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Registers reports on Twitter.

The top baseball operations position came open in late September, on the heels of another disappointing season. Owner Arte Moreno elected to cut bait on GM Billy Eppler despite recently extending his contract by one additional year.

Despite a five-year run of losing campaigns under Eppler, the Angels aren’t expected to present a rebuilding opportunity for a new front office leader. The club still features some premium talent, headlined by living legend Mike Trout, with the payroll commitments to match.

Though the Angels reportedly considered a wide array of potential hires, including some with previous experience in a GM seat, the team clearly homed in on a certain archetype as its search progressed. The five finalists are all relatively youthful, rising-star types who’ve yet to run their own department.

Rays, Cubs Complete Jose Martinez Trade

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The Rays and Cubs have completed their Aug. 30 Jose Martinez trade, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). The Rays acquired cash rather than a player to be named later to round out the deal. The initial trade was announced as Martinez to the Cubs in exchange for minor league infielder Pedro Martinez and a PTBNL or cash.

The trade didn’t pan out as the Cubs had hoped, as Martinez appeared in 10 games for them and went 0-for-21 with a walk. A longtime division rival with the Cardinals, the 32-year-old Martinez struggled immensely in 2020, hitting just .182/.265/.295 in a combined 98 plate appearances between the two teams. The Cubs still control him through 2022 via arbitration, although his 2020 struggles make him a clear non-tender candidate.

As for the Rays, they picked up the younger, 19-year-old Martinez who now ranks as their No. 21 prospect at MLB.com and Baseball America as well as their No. 31 prospect at FanGraphs. The lack of a minor league season makes it impossible to really evaluate the younger Martinez’s 2020 season. That said, he posted a .311/.388/.437 slash through 233 plate appearances back in 2019 and adds some depth to the lower levels of one of MLB’s best farms.

Angels Down To Five GM Finalists

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Nov. 11: Braves assistant general manager Perry Minasian is the fifth finalist for the job, Rosenthal tweets.

Nov. 10: The Los Angeles Angels are closing in on their next general manager. Per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter), the Angels have narrowed the field to a final five candidates. Granted, the field was said to have narrowed to three as of a couple of days ago, but regardless of how many remain in contention, Rosenthal adds that a decision could be made by the end of the week.

The known candidates are Cubs senior VP Jason McLeod, Diamondbacks assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawdaye, and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander. The unknown fifth candidate fits a similar mold as an assistant GM type, per Rosenthal. Porter and McLeod both connect back to manager Joe Maddon and his time with the Cubs, while Hollander spent 9 years in the Angels’ front office before moving to the Mariners, notes Rosenthal.

As many as 14 different candidates were said to have interviewed for the role, most notably Michael Hill, formerly of the Marlins. Dave Dombrowski was rumored to be a consideration, but he proved unavailable for front office roles at this time. The Angels have apparently chosen to go the promotion route, selecting someone without significant prior experience in the role.

Pirates Name John Baker Director Of Coaching & Player Development

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The Pirates announced Tuesday that they’ve hired former big league catcher John Baker as their new director of coaching and player development. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the hiring of Baker, who’d been with the Cubs since 2016 and spent the 2020 campaign as the club’s mental skills coach.

“We are excited to add John to our baseball operations leadership team,” said general manager Ben Cherington in a press release announcing the move. “John’s experience as a player, his training and experience as a mental skills coach for a highly successful franchise, and his continued learning in the areas of skill acquisition and human performance, give him valuable perspective on the entire player improvement and performance process. John will work closely with our minor league staff and players to help lead our player development program.”

Baker, 39, spent parts of seven seasons in the Majors from 2008-14, hitting a combined .247/.330/.341 through 1228 plate appearances with the Marlins, Padres and Cubs. His first role with the Cubs was as a special assistant with the baseball operations department, and he’s since held the titles of mental skills coordinator and head applied mental skills coach.

Baker isn’t the first recently retired big leaguer to dive into the player development track for the next stage of his baseball career. Former big league infielder Chris Getz is currently serving as the White Sox farm director himself, while former right-hander Brandon Gomes held that same post with the Dodgers prior to being promoted to assistant general manager in 2019.

Diamondbacks Acquire Ronny Simon From Cubs

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The Diamondbacks and Cubs have completed the pre-trade deadline deal that sent left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin to Chicago for a player to be named later. The D-backs have acquired infielder Ronny Simon for Chafin, Arizona announced.

Still just 20 years old, the switch-hitting Simon tore the cover off the ball at the rookie level in 2019. Simon amassed 196 plate appearances then and batted .333/.411/.571 (164 wRC+) with three home runs, 14 stolen bases and almost as many walks (21) as strikeouts (25) over 196 plate appearances. Based on what he has done in the minors, Simon seems like a nice get for Arizona.

Chafin was a productive reliever for the Diamondbacks for several years, but with the team out of contention and with him nearing free agency, it made sense to part ways. The 30-year-old gave the Cubs 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball (including playoffs) but is now on the free-agent market.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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With a reduced payroll looming and many core pieces entering contract years, will the Cubs finally engineer a shake-up?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $16.5MM club option on 1B Anthony Rizzo
  • Declined $25MM club option on SP Jon Lester (paid $10MM buyout)
  • Declined $3.5MM club option on IF Daniel Descalso (paid $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Though the Cubs won the NL Central in the strange 60-game 2020 season, their season ended in disappointment just as it did in 2018 and 2019.  This time, it was a playoff sweep at the hands of the Marlins.  Most of the Cubs’ offensive core failed to show up in 2020.  Here’s Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein with a quote that might as well have come from the ’18 or ’19 post-mortem press conferences:

Clearly, some change is warranted and necessary.  Simply hoping for a better outcome moving forward doesn’t seem like a thoughtful approach. Embracing some change, even significant change, is warranted.

It’s remarkable how little the Cubs’ group of position players has turned over since they won the World Series in 2016.  Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward — they’re all still here.  Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber are each now down to one year of control.  Epstein’s contract will be up as well, and 2021 is widely expected to be his last hurrah with the Cubs before Jed Hoyer moves into the top chair in the front office.  Epstein has avoided change for the sake of change, but this is his last chance to shake up the team and try something different.

Any Cubs shakeup will come against the backdrop of financial austerity, with the team having laid off 100-plus employees, according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.  And while the pandemic will be the driver of the Cubs’ expected player payroll reduction, it’s not as if they were spending any money in the two previous offseasons.  If you’re looking for potential free-agent targets, focus on players at the bottom of our Top 50 Free Agents list, unless the club dumps salary first.

So once again, the winter is all about trade speculation for Cubs fans.  The problem?  Likely trade candidates Bryant and Schwarber had lousy years with the bat, and Baez was particularly awful.  The samples are small.  Bryant’s 147 plate appearances would have represented less than a quarter of a season for him based on the 671 he averaged from 2015-17.  No one thinks Bryant is now a below-average hitter, given a five-year track record of success before 2020.  From a club standpoint, the down year will at least prevent his arbitration salary from climbing much higher than the $18.6MM he was supposed to earn in a full 2020.  But even though it was just 147 plate appearances, trading Bryant now is still selling low.  At a time when most teams are expected to reduce payroll, who wants to take on roughly $20MM for Bryant while also giving up good players?

I explored specific team matches for Bryant in this post.  You can identify about a half-dozen clubs that could work.  The Cubs are between a rock and a hard place with Bryant, though.  If the Cubs expect Bryant to put up a 4 WAR season in 2021, but no one’s offering much beyond salary relief, they should just keep him.  But if they keep him, they cut off a major avenue for making a significant change to the team.

We should also take a moment to discuss the possibility of the Cubs non-tendering Bryant on December 2nd, which Mooney and Sharma said recently “probably can’t be totally dismissed out of hand because the Cubs have shown us how they are managing the downturn.”  As they wrote, this would be an “embarrassment” and a “worst-case scenario.”  If the Cubs exhaust all trade scenarios and don’t want to commit themselves to Bryant at around $20MM, it is an avenue they could take, however unlikely.  We did just see 29 teams pass on Brad Hand at one year and $10MM.  If no one is willing to take Bryant at his salary, the Cubs’ choice would come down to keeping him or cutting him.  They could also consider cutting Bryant or Schwarber during Spring Training, but that would require at least 30 days termination pay and would put the player in a difficult spot.

Schwarber presents a lesser version of the same dilemma.  He posted a 90 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, but it’s not too hard to picture him returning to the 115-120 range in 2021 as a 28-year-old next year.  If he does, his $7MM salary could be a bargain.  He’s still more replaceable than Bryant, which is why I wouldn’t rule out a non-tender for Schwarber either if the Cubs can’t find a trade partner prior to December 2nd.  I’m not optimistic about the Cubs finding a team willing to give up anything of note for a left fielder/designated hitter, particularly with Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley available in free agency and Eddie Rosario in trade (and possibly being non-tendered himself).  Brantley, a much better contact hitter than Schwarber, would actually be an interesting choice to replace him for the Cubs.  I’m not sure I can see the Cubs unloading Schwarber’s $7MM to potentially sign Brantley for twice as much, however.

With Baez, a contract extension could be more likely than a trade.  He’s a popular, entertaining player with a desire to stay.  I can see fans being disappointed if the Cubs keep Bryant and Schwarber, trade them for an uninspiring return, or non-tender them for nothing.  A Baez extension could restore some goodwill.  Figuring out a fair number during a pandemic for a player coming off a bad year could make an extension difficult for Baez, however.  The Cubs have already extended some goodwill toward face of the franchise Anthony Rizzo, exercising his $16.5MM club option after a 103 wRC+ performance.  It’s hard to picture Rizzo in any other uniform, but a new contract would have to be hammered out to retain him beyond ’21.

The Cubs have several solid building blocks in place through 2023 in Darvish, Hendricks, and Happ.  They’ve got Contreras under control through ’22.  All options will likely be on the table in terms of trades, and these are the players with trade value.  Contreras is coming off a solid year, and getting his age 29-30 seasons would likely be appealing to the runners-up for J.T. Realmuto.  Plus, Contreras won’t cost $20MM+ like Realmuto will.  The Cubs could trim $7MM in payroll if they exchange Contreras for pre-arbitration players.  The Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rays, and Yankees could be interesting trade partners.  If they trade Contreras, the Cubs might be content to plug in Victor Caratini as their starter behind the dish.

Similarly, the Cubs could look to get out of their commitment to Darvish with his value at a high point.  They wouldn’t be able to find a Cy Young-caliber pitcher to replace him, but they could use some of the savings for veteran free agents while also bringing in quality minimum-salary players in the trade.  Considering painful scenarios like these is the reality of the 2021 Cubs.

With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood reaching free agency, the Cubs figure to import at least one starting pitcher this winter and possibly two.  They’ve got Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills slated behind Darvish and Hendricks, but the team clearly needs more.  Interest in a Lester reunion is mutual, though the Cubs may seek more upside than the veteran southpaw can offer.  One possible answer would be to find the pitching equivalent of Bryant or Schwarber – an arbitration eligible player with limited control coming off a down year –  and broker a trade.  Such a deal could be struck prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, particularly in the case of Schwarber.

On the other hand, Epstein spoke about “thread[ing] the needle and improv[ing] in 2021 while also setting ourselves up for the long-term future,” which suggests he’d like prefer to swap contract year players for ones with multiple years of control.  That makes sense in theory, but as I’ve been saying, Bryant and Schwarber don’t seem to have a lot of trade value.  Look at the minimal return the Indians received for a $17.5MM Corey Kluber after a lost 2019 season.  And that was with the Rangers at least having the chance to get two years of Kluber, who had an expensive option for 2021 (that was bought out due to injury).  That’s why trading Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, or Happ might be Epstein’s best way to thread the needle.

The Cubs’ bullpen is also in need of reinforcements.  The pitcher they put in the highest-leverage situations, Jeremy Jeffress, is a free agent.  Much has been made of Craig Kimbrel’s final 14 appearances of the season, in which he posted a 1.42 ERA with a 53.1 K%, 14.3 BB%, and no home runs allowed.  The list of 60+ inning relief seasons from 2015-19 in which a pitcher walked at least 14% of batters faced runs just seven-deep: Brandon Workman, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Steven Brault, Reyes Moronta, Carl Edwards Jr., and Kyle Barraclough.  The truth is that if you issue free passes to batters at the rate Kimbrel did in the “good” portion of his 2020 season, you’re walking a tightrope that few have found sustainable.

The Cubs’ most reliable reliever might be Rowan Wick, who has strung together 50 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball since joining the team in a November 2018 trade.  I can picture Ryan Tepera sticking around, though he walked a career-worst 13.5% of batters faced for the Cubs this year.  The Cubs’ other potential bullpen holdovers seem even more fungible.  I’m not yet convinced in the Cubs’ ability to grab castoff relievers on the cheap, run them through their Pitch Lab, and create an above-average bullpen.  One-year deals should abound for free agent relievers this winter, and the Cubs should set their sights higher than the scrap heap.

Epstein’s legacy in Chicago is secure, and he’s likely headed for the Hall of Fame one day.  But for a big-market, high-payroll team that’s made the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, fans can’t help but feel disappointed with one championship.  In positioning the 2021 Cubs for one last run, Epstein faces one of his greatest challenges.

Looking For A Match In A Kris Bryant Trade

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As the Cubs look to shake up their offense and trim salary this winter, longtime third baseman Kris Bryant is likely to be on the trading block.  Bryant, drafted second overall in 2013, has one more year of control remaining following the worst season of his career.  Bryant managed just a 76 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances this year, battling a series of injuries.  In the five years prior, Bryant posted a 139 wRC+ and averaged over five wins above replacement per season, though his best production was concentrated at the beginning of his career.

Bryant has spent over 80% of his career defensive innings at third base, and metrics suggest he’s roughly average at the position.  The bulk of his remaining innings have come at the outfield corners.  It’s fair to say that Bryant can probably play all three of these positions capably, but he fits best as a third baseman.

Bryant was set to earn $18.6MM in 2020 before the season was cut short, and he’s arbitration eligible one last time before entering free agency after the 2021 season.  While a small raise looks likely, I expect his ’21 salary to fall short of $20MM.

In at least four different seasons in Bryant’s career, $20MM would have been a bargain.  But in the uncertain climate of the 2020-21 MLB offseason, the list of teams willing to spend that amount on a player coming off a bad year is likely to be short.  With demand low, the Cubs might receive a minimal return in trade this winter.  That could be a reason to keep Bryant for one last run in 2021, or at least hold him until the July trade deadline.

On the other hand, maybe the Cubs really want to reboot their offense this winter, and crave payroll flexibility.  At the least, they’ll listen to offers.  Keep in mind that Bryant is not actually under contract for 2021, and if the Cubs want sheer relief from the prospect of paying him, they could non-tender him on December 2nd and get nothing in return.  That seems unlikely for a player who was a star just a year ago.  As to the shape of a possible trade return, the Cubs probably can’t be too picky.  They could choose a return geared toward winning in 2021, or seek players with multiple years of control remaining.  They could look for players earning the league minimum, or accept someone making millions but still less than Bryant.  They could fill rotation or outfield holes, or just take the best available offer.  With that in mind, let’s dig into possible suitors.

We’ll begin by eliminating the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and White Sox.  It seems highly unlikely to me that the Cubs, who are assumed to be trying to win in 2021, would trade Bryant to a division or crosstown rival with the same goal.  We’ll also strike the Orioles and Rangers, who do not seem positioned for a push toward contention in 2021.  We’ll cross off the Pirates for both reasons.

Here’s what we have left.

Teams That Could Afford Bryant And Could Make Room At Third Base

  • Blue Jays: The Jays’ primary third baseman in 2020 was Travis Shaw, and he’s a non-tender candidate.  As GM Ross Atkins put it, “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  Bryant fits the bill.
  • Nationals: Carter Kieboom struggled mightily for the Nats this year, and sliding Bryant in at third base for a year would be an easy fit.
  • Braves: Austin Riley is the Braves’ incumbent at the hot corner, and his career has begun with an 87 wRC+ over 503 plate appearances.  Bryant would fit with GM Alex Anthopoulos’ recent strategy of high-dollar one-year deals for Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna.
  • Dodgers: Replacing free agent Justin Turner with Bryant would be a bold move, but if that’s the Dodgers’ preference it’s a viable option.
  • Tigers: The Tigers don’t seem close enough to contending to acquire a one-year rental like Bryant.  But they could afford him, and primary third baseman Isaac Paredes did not play well this year.  If the Tigers go on a spending spree with an eye on contending in 2021, Bryant could theoretically be a part of that.

Teams That Could Afford Bryant But Would Have To Use Him In An Outfield Corner

  • Astros: The Astros have Alex Bregman locked in at third base, so Bryant would have to spend 2021 mostly playing right field.  It’s not a crazy idea.
  • Giants: Bryant offers more upside than incumbent third baseman Evan Longoria, but Longoria is under contract through 2022.  Bryant would probably have to slot in at left field for the Giants over Alex Dickerson.  It’s not an ideal fit for a team seeking a left-handed-hitting infielder.
  • Marlins: Whether the Marlins could afford Bryant is up for debate, but I think it’s somewhat possible.  They’ve got Brian Anderson at third base, but didn’t get much at the outfield corners in 2020.  JJ Bleday isn’t quite ready, while Jesus Sanchez and Monte Harrison have Triple-A experience.  Making room for Bryant for one year isn’t out of the question.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox don’t seem primed to go all-in on 2021, and they have Rafael Devers at third base.  But if they do decide to make a push, they could trade or demote Andrew Benintendi and use Bryant in left field.

Teams That Don’t Seem To Have A Spot For Bryant

  • Angels: The Halos have Anthony Rendon at third, Justin Upton in left, and Jo Adell in right.  Upton hasn’t been great the last two seasons, but he’s signed through 2022.  Adell struggled in his 38-game debut and could theoretically be held off for most of 2021, but doing that to accommodate Bryant seems unlikely for a team focused on pitching.
  • Phillies: It’d be fun to see old friends Bryce Harper and Bryant finally unite in Philly.  But the Phils have Alec Bohm slated for third, Andrew McCutchen in left, and Harper in right.  If the NL adds the DH for ’21, then there could be room for Bryant.
  • Mariners: They’ve got Kyle Seager locked in at third base for 2021, and by June should have an outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, and Mitch Haniger in place.  It’s hard to see where Bryant would fit in.
  • Twins: The Twins are set with Josh Donaldson at third base, Eddie Rosario in left field, and Max Kepler in right.  Unloading Rosario to acquire Bryant is technically possible, though.
  • Yankees: The Yankees are in good shape with Gio Urshela at third base, and figure to use Clint Frazier in left field and Aaron Judge in right.
  • Mets: J.D. Davis served as the Mets’ primary third baseman in 2020, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith handled left field.  All of these players, including Bryant, can play multiple positions.  All three Mets players hit well in 2020, and I can’t think of a good reason they would replace an affordable player with Bryant.  Maybe there’s some combination of trades that gets Bryant to the Mets, but it’d be a lot of moving parts.  Or, as with the Phillies, the addition of an NL DH for 2021 could open up a spot.

Teams That Could Find A Spot For Bryant, But Probably Can’t Afford Him

  • Padres: The Padres have pushed their payroll pretty far, but it’s never wise to count out A.J. Preller.  University of San Diego alum Kris Bryant would be a fun addition, but they’re already expected to shop Wil Myers due to his salary.  Perhaps if they succeed on that front, and/or they non-tender Tommy Pham, the Padres could pull it off.
  • Diamondbacks: Demoting Eduardo Escobar and plugging Bryant in at third as their big right-handed bat addition would be intriguing for the Diamondbacks, but with the club looking at a reduced payroll I can’t see how they’d add a $20MM player.
  • Rays: The Rays could find a spot for Bryant, maybe in right field, but with one of the game’s smallest payrolls it’s difficult to picture a $20MM addition.
  • Royals: The Royals don’t have much in the way of contracts, but after you add in their arbitration eligible players, paying for Bryant could be a reach.  They are one team in this bracket that could make it work if they really wanted to.
  • Athletics: The A’s could be aggressive in cuts with other aspects of the team and fit Bryant into an outfield corner, but it doesn’t seem likely.
  • Indians: Bryant would make for a solid corner outfield rental for the Indians, but they’re not going to add Bryant in an offseason where they’re expected to trade Francisco Lindor.
  • Rockies: The Rockies are generally expected to shed payroll, entertaining offers for Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story.  I can’t see how Bryant fits there.

In my opinion, the teams best-suited to trade for Bryant are the Blue Jays, Nationals, Braves, Dodgers, and Astros.  Of course, that’s without knowing the motivations of those clubs and whether they’d offer something the Cubs would consider worthwhile.

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