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Cubs Interested In Re-Signing Brandon Morrow

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Injuries have victimized free-agent reliever Brandon Morrow over the past year and a half, which recently forced the Cubs to buy him out for $3MM in lieu of exercising a $12MM option for 2020. However, that doesn’t mean the Cubs are uninterested in keeping Morrow in the fold. On the contrary, the club’s considering trying to bring the right-handed Morrow back on a minor-league deal, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.

Morrow, for his part, seems open to returning to the Cubs. Agent Joel Wolfe told Wittenmyer that “Brandon feels a certain sense of loyalty and obligation back to the Cubs to stay with them if they want him on a minor-league contract or something like that. He signed with the Cubs because he thought they were the best organization out there for him, and he still believes that.”

Morrow, then fresh off a stellar season with the Dodgers, joined the Cubs on a two-year, $21MM guarantee entering 2018. The Cubs’ decision looked brilliant at first, as Morrow pumped high-90s heat and fired 30 2/3 innings of 1.47 ERA/2.97 FIP ball with 9.1 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent groundball rate over the 2018 season’s initial few months. Unfortunately, though, Morrow hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 15 of that year because of various injuries.

Back, biceps and elbow issues have been the latest problems during an injury-laden career for Morrow, once a promising starter who reinvented himself as an effective reliever before health troubles reared their head again during his Cubs tenure. Morrow has undergone two elbow surgeries since last November, including one at the end of this season, though he has progressed well enough that he should be ready for spring training, according to Wolfe.

If Morrow does regain health by next year, he’ll have a chance to emerge as a low-cost steal for the Cubs or some other team. In the Cubs’ case, they could clearly use bullpen help – especially with Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop and David Phelps among their free agents. However, it’s up in the air how much money the luxury tax-minded Cubs plan on spending as they work to improve their relief corps (and their roster as a whole) after falling short of expectations in 2019. If they’re on the hunt for potential bargains, a reunion with Morrow would seemingly make sense.

Three Teams Exceeded 2019 Luxury Tax Threshold

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The Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs were the three teams to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times noted over the weekend. MLBTR has confirmed that is the complete and final list of organizations identified by Major League Baseball as owing competitive balance obligations.

Each of those clubs exceeded $206MM in 2019 payroll, as calculated by Major League Baseball pursuant to the rules governing the competitive balance tax. Generally, the CBT calculation looks to the average annual value of player contracts while also accounting for bonuses and other payroll-related expenses. The CBT threshold rises to $208MM in 2020 and then to $210MM in 2021.

Last year, the Red Sox and Nationals surpassed the spending threshold and paid taxes. The D.C. organization managed to duck under the line but could again be in that tax bracket if it spends to defend its World Series title. The Red Sox are expected to try to duck under the limbo bar in 2020. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have now gone two straight years without paying after a five-season streak of tax bills.

Precise calculations aren’t yet available, but Cot’s on Contracts has estimates of the complicated CBT tabulations. Their figures show both the Nats and Dodgers over the line, though obviously those organizations were able to sneak in just below. The Astros and Phillies appear to have been the next-biggest spenders, though both were a fair sight shy of any tax bills.

The Cot’s figures allow us to make some rough estimates of the actual amounts due. The Red Sox will pay the most, as they were the only team to incur tax liability for consecutive seasons, thus raising the rate. With an estimated payroll of just under $240MM, the Boston org will pay 30% on their first $20MM in overages and 42% on the rest, resulting in an estimated bill of just under $12MM.

The Cubs also ran up a tab that came in just shy of the $240MM mark by Cot’s reckoning. They are not a repeat luxury level team and therefore pay the base rate of 20% for the first $20MM and 32% for the next $20MM in salary over the threshold. That would result in a liability of a little under $8.5MM. Cot’s credits the Yankees with $234MM of spending for CBT purposes. Since the Bronx Bombers spent a year shy of the luxury line, they also get first-time treatment and would stand to owe just over $6.5MM.

None of the three teams came close to topping $246MM in payroll, at which point they’d not only have faced a bigger tax rate on further spending but also would’ve seen their top draft pick moved down the board ten spots. But the trio does still face some ongoing impact beyond the money owed. Inking a free agent who declined a qualifying offer will cost a bit more in compensation than it would have otherwise — specifically, $1MM in international amateur bonus pool spending capacity along with the team’s second and fifth-highest draft picks. The rules also suppress the level of compensation available to teams that lose QO’ed free agents after exceeding the luxury line, though none of these three clubs issued qualifying offers this offseason.

Giants Hire Scott Harris As GM

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The San Francisco Giants have hired Scott Harris to serve as the team’s general manager, according to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. Harris had previously worked as the Cubs’ assistant GM since 2018 after five years as Chicago’s director of baseball operations.

Harris, 32, will join the Giants as Farhan Zaidi’s second-in-command after the team went more than a year without a general manager. A bay area native, Harris graduated from UCLA and earned his MBA from Northwestern, breaking into the baseball industry as an intern with the Nationals and Reds, positions that he turned into a full-time gig in the MLB commissioner’s office. In his time with the Cubs, he had a hand in the club’s ascension to World Series champions in 2015, emerging as the right-hand man for top baseball ops officers Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.

Even with a general manager in place, the Giants’ baseball decisions will still run through Zaidi, who with a year under his belt now has the opportunity to populate the Giants’ leadership ranks with his own hires. Zaidi was brought aboard to be the top dog and foremost decision-maker, and that won’t change. However, that’s not to downplay the importance of Harris’s addition; the general manager, in Zaidi’s own words, will “share the load in managing the overall operation,” an endeavor in which Harris should be of considerable utility: in a statement from the Giants, Harris is credited with overseeing the Cubs’ research and development department, the arbitration process, and the baseball ops department’s financial strategy and planning.

And Harris will have to get started right away. With the GM meetings underway this week, Harris will enter his new post during one of the busiest and most critical times of the year for baseball executives. With the Giants still searching for their next manager, it’s not clear how much sway Harris will have in the final hire, though it’s no doubt a priority that Harris, Zaidi, and the new skipper are all on the same page. Still, Harris could still provide some valuable input: Joe Espada, one of the finalists for the Giants’ job, also interviewed for the Cubs position, a process in which Harris almost certainly would have participated.

The addition of Harris represents the continuation of the Giants’ organizational overhaul of the baseball operations department, which began last year with the ouster of GM Bobby Evans. The organization sought a more modern front office, with a president of baseball operations working in concert with a general manager. In Zaidi, the club found their president last year. And now, the GM is in place. After Bruce Bochy’s retirement, there’s of course another important hire that must be made, and it seems that a decision could be coming soon: the Giants have reportedly narrowed the field down to three finalists: Joe Espada, Gabe Kapler, and Matt Quatraro.

On the field, Zaidi has already begun his transformation of the team, showing an aptitude for acquiring marginal talent improvements in low-risk moves. The acquisitions of players like Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Kevin Pillar, and Donovan Solano—all of which came at a minimal cost to the Giants—played a part in the Giants’ surprising midseason run that kept them on the brink of playoff position despite low expectations.

This, along with a burgeoning farm system and the undeniable purchasing power of the Giants, makes the Giants an attractive rebuilding project for an executive like Harris—more so, at least, than when Zaidi took over after 2018, inheriting a group consisting largely of dynastic leftovers and pricey, past-their-prime mercenaries. The outlook for 2021 and beyond, though, is a promising one. With prospects like Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, Marco Luciano, and Hunter Bishop anchoring the farm system, there’s some foundation to work with. And when hefty contracts start to come off the books, the Giants can expect to flex their financial muscles and become a real player in negotiations with top free agents.

For Giants fans hoping to learn more about the newest addition to the San Francisco front office, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma profiled Harris in March of 2018, painting him as a hard-working rising star in baseball’s front office landscape. Harris drew rave reviews from superstar execs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, under whom he worked in Chicago.

NL Notes: Contreras, Banks, Hefner

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We already checked in on some notes from the American League today. Now let’s take a look at the National League.

  • A Willson Contreras trade won’t do the Cubs any favors in 2020, but it’s more preferable than moving any of the team’s other star players, opines Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic. Some rival organizations believe Chicago will indeed make that move this offseason, and there would surely be ample interest in the 27-year-old catcher if the Cubs put him on the market. Contreras is one of baseball’s best offensive catchers, and the Cubs maintain that he’ll improve as a pitch framer, although as Sharma notes, he continues to rate near the bottom of the league in that category. Parting ways with a franchise catcher isn’t ideal, but the Cubs do at least have a strong internal replacement available in Víctor Caratini. The same can’t be said for shortstop, third base, or first base, so a trade of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, or Anthony Rizzo is tougher to envision. The Cubs don’t have to trade any of those players, Sharma points out, although ownership seems unlikely to green-light a major payroll increase and the MLB pitching staff and minor-league system both need augmenting.
  • Nationals outfield prospect Nick Banks put together a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League. He credits some of that success to Ken Joyce, a hitting coach in the Yankees organization, with whom Banks worked in the AFL, reports Byron Kerr of MASN. A fourth-round draft choice by Washington out of Texas A&M in 2016, Banks hit well across two levels, reaching Double-A Harrisburg this season. He’s never been regarded as a top prospect (topping out as Washington’s #31 prospect after 2016, per Baseball America), although perhaps his solid 2019 season and postseason mechanical work with Joyce will turn some heads in the organization. The 24-year-old will be Rule V eligible if he’s not added to Washington’s 40-man roster by November 20.
  • The Mets are set to interview Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner for their top pitching coach position. Their interest in bringing him on staff isn’t new, as SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter) reports that New York offered him an interview for bullpen coach last offseason. The former Mets’ pitcher was then already locked into his position with Minnesota, but he’ll sit down with New York brass this time around for an opportunity to lead the entire pitching staff.

Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners

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Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
  • The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.

Teams With Catching Needs Reportedly Eyeing Cubs’ Contreras

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While it would seem surprising to see the Cubs put young backstop Willson Contreras up for trade, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter link) that it’s a possibility. “Multiple teams” around the game believe the Chicago organization will take offers for the 27-year-old, per the report.

Let’s stop here to make clear: the expectations of rival executives does not a trade make. But it’s notable nevertheless that such a potential outcome has sprung up at this earlier stage of the offseason; after all, teams have been talking already. The negotiating partners of Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein will want to know whether there’s any realistic possibility of landing Contreras, or whether instead they should simply look elsewhere.

There’s no denying the major value Contreras would have on the open market. He dealt with some leg injuries, but was excellent when healthy. Over 409 plate appearances, Contreras slashed .272/.355/.533 with 24 home runs. He’s a lifetime 117 wRC+ hitter who is perhaps on the upswing (or at least not in decline) with the bat.

Behind the plate? The tools all seem to be there. He has generally been quite successful at cutting down the running game and at blocking stray pitches. There’s an argument that Contreras has been on the upswing in the framing department; he ended the year ranked as a positive in that regard — at least by one tabulation. Framing metrics have varied.

MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian looked at this question recently, noting that there are multiple ways to look at the matter. It seems clear the team feels that Contreras isn’t a fully finished product, though in some respects that only makes him more intriguing.

Bastian quotes Epstein:

“We’ve won a lot of games with Willson Contreras behind the plate. We’ve had a lot of success pitching with Willson Contreras behind the plate. There are certainly areas he can continue to improve upon, but shame on us if we can’t continue his development at the big league level, because this is like the most tooled-out, athletic catcher who has a huge heart and cares and wants his pitcher to succeed as well.”

Contreras won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s projected to earn a relatively stout $4.5MM in his first trip through arbitration, but that’s a plenty manageable figure for a regular backstop. The three years of contract control remaining are quite enticing, all things considered.

All of those factors also make Contreras exceptionally valuable to the Cubs — a team that isn’t exactly in position to pack it in for a rebuild. True, they have Victor Caratini on hand to perhaps take a bigger piece of the action if paired with a veteran. But you’d think that new manager David Ross would be well-positioned to help Contreras reach his monster ceiling. And there’s a reason that clubs prize the few, rare catchers in the game that contribute both with the glove and with the bat on a near-everyday basis.

Teams are already considering just how much to pay the older but also excellent Yasmani Grandal in free agency. They may have a more affordable alternative in Contreras, though it’ll surely cost a small fortune in trade value. (Last year’s J.T. Realmuto swap provides some conceptual help, though he was a year closer to free agency at the time he was dealt.) Just what the Cubs would be looking for in return isn’t known, though it would presumably not be an entirely future-oriented bargain for the Chicago organization. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether talks gain any traction and, if so, what direction they take.

Cubs To Hire Andy Green As Bench Coach

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Former Padres skipper Andy Green will be named the new bench coach for the Cubs, per Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted that Green was expected to be tapped after he was linked to the job through reports earlier this week.

Green becomes the top lieutenant under new Cubs manager David Ross, who is turning over a major portion of his staff. Last year’s bench coach, Mark Loretta, will leave the Chicago organization, Heyman adds via Twitter. Loretta, like Green, came from San Diego.

It seems the Cubs preferred to provide Ross with an experienced manager at his right hand, as this’ll be his first-ever season in charge of a dugout. Green helmed the Friars for almost four full seasons and also did the in-game decisionmaking before that in the minor-leagues.

Cubs To Hire Chris Young As Bullpen Coach

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The Cubs will hire Chris Young as their next bullpen coach, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll take over for departing long-time pen leader Lester Strode.

This makes for a notable hire under new skipper David Ross. Young — no, not the former MLB pitcher and certainly not the former outfielder — just wrapped up his brief time as the Phillies pitching coach.

While his tenure in Philly didn’t turn out as hoped, Young’s perspective on the game remains highly valuable. He’s an analytically oriented presence who has had some ups and downs in his efforts to transition to a uniformed role. It remains to be seen who’ll take the pitching coach job in Chicago, but the Cubs obviously feel they can structure a productive combination of voices to guide the team’s staff.

Lester Strode Won’t Return As Cubs’ Bullpen Coach

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8:25pm: WEEI’s Rob Bradford writes that LeVangie’s interview was indeed for the bullpen coach vacancy.

7:40pm: The Cubs will not retain bullpen coach Lester Strode in that role, reports ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers. The 61-year-old Strode has spent 31 years in the Cubs organization, including the past 13 years as the Major League bullpen coach. He has, however, been offered a “prominent” position elsewhere in the organization, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds (via Twitter).

Chicago has already interviewed recently dismissed Phillies pitching coach Chris Young — not to be confused with the former MLB pitcher or outfielder — as a potential successor to Strode, per Rogers. Heyman adds one other potential candidate: former Red Sox pitching coach Dana LeVangie. The 50-year-old knows recently hired manager David Ross well, as he was the Red Sox’ bullpen coach during Ross’ time as the team’s backup catcher in 2013-14. LeVangie also worked in the Red Sox scouting department while current Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer and vice president Jason McLeod were in the organization.

LeVangie was ousted as the Red Sox’ pitching coach at season’s end, though he was reassigned to another position rather than dismissed entirely. It’s common for coaches who are reassigned to be given the opportunity to interview elsewhere, though, and Heyman notes that LeVangie has indeed interviewed for an unspecified position on Ross’ staff. It was also reported yesterday that former Padres skipper Andy Green has interviewed to serve as Chicago’s bench coach in 2020.

Giants Considering Scott Harris In GM Search

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The Giants’ search for a general manager has been a quiet one thus far, due in no small part to the fact that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is already fixed at the top of the ops hierarchy. (Indeed, he has operated without a GM since his hiring.) But it’s still an important executive position that offers the San Francisco organization an angle to bring aboard some new talent.

Among the candidates for the Giants GM post is Scott Harris, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Harris currently serves as an assistant GM with the Cubs — an organization that has quite a few well-titled cooks in the kitchen. That’s not to diminish Harris. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma profiled him last year in a subscription post, painting him as a hard-working and intelligent rising star in the game.

It seems there are others also under consideration, though identities have yet to be reported. Kerry Crowley of the Mercury News recently ran down some potential candidates. In particular, he noted that A’s GM Billy Owens — Zaidi’s former colleague — has interest in the opening. Owens was said to be under consideration this time last year, but Zaidi decided to go without a clear #2 in his first season at the helm.

It is still not evident what kind of timeline the process will take, or really where it stands at the moment. It seems reasonable to presume that the Giants (and the teams currently employing the candidates) will want to resolve things in relatively short order with the offseason upon us.

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