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Astros To Interview Will Venable

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Cubs third base coach Will Venable will interview for the Astros’ managerial opening on Friday, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter links).  The Cubs granted Houston permission to speak to Venable about the position.

Mark Berman of FOX 26 first reported yesterday that Venable being considered by the Astros, and Venable brings a different profile than the two candidates who have already interviewed for the position.  Whereas Buck Showalter and John Gibbons have combined to manage over 4500 MLB games, the 37-year-old Venable would be a first-time skipper.  After wrapping up his nine-year playing career in 2016, Venable took on a new role as a special assistant to Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein in 2017 and then worked two seasons as Chicago’s first base coach.

Venable emerged as a managerial candidate earlier this winter when he was interviewed by the Giants and by the Cubs themselves for their dugout openings.  While he didn’t get the big hire, Venable is slated to move into a new role in 2020, as he will move across the diamond to work as a third base coach.

As per the names on Berman’s list, Houston is taking a broad approach to its search, considering both veteran names and candidates without any managerial experience (i.e. Venable, Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Dodgers special advisor Raul Ibanez).  It’s hard to predict how the organization might be leaning, both because the search is still in its early stages and due to the lingering cloud of controversy hanging over the Astros due to the sign-stealing scandal that led to the firings of former manager A.J. Hinch and former GM Jeff Luhnow.

Bruce Bochy Not Planning To Pursue Managerial Opportunities At This Time

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The 2019 season marked the end of a legendary managerial run with the Giants for Bruce Bochy, but the future Hall of Famer has publicly voiced an interest in continuing his managerial career in the future. FOX 26’s Mark Berman reported just yesterday that Bochy was of interest to Astros owner Jim Crane as he seeks a new skipper following A.J. Hinch’s firing, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Bochy does not plan to pursue any managerial openings at this time.

At the time he indicated a desire to continue his managerial career, the 64-year-old Bochy termed the 2020 season as something of a “sabbatical” for him as he “hit the pause button.”  But while a return in 2021 or beyond is seemingly plausible, it doesn’t appear as though Houston’s reported interest in him is reciprocated at this time.

The Astros have already interviewed Buck Showalter and are set to meet with John Gibbons, too, as they look for a new dugout leader. At this juncture of the offseason, interviewing coaches with other clubs could be more difficult than it would’ve been earlier in the winter when teams had yet to set their staffs and had more time to find suitable replacements for departing coaches. That said, Rosenthal tweets that the Cubs would be willing to let third base coach Will Venable interview for the Astros’ vacancy. Venable, like Bochy, was on Berman’s reported list of potential targets for the Houston organization.

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

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The last elite free agent of the winter came off the board Tuesday when third baseman Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92MM guarantee with Minnesota. Not only does the addition strengthen an already power-happy Twins offense, but it’s also a significant blow for an Atlanta team that received outstanding production from Donaldson in 2019. The club’s situation at third, where Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are in-house front-runners to take over for Donaldson, now looks far less imposing sans Donaldson.

Camargo was effective as recently as two years ago, but his production nosedived during a season to forget in 2019. Riley’s not far removed from a run as a standout prospect, and he began his major league career well last season. However, thanks largely to a bloated strikeout rate (36.4 percent), he endured enormous struggles as 2019 progressed.

There aren’t any obvious answers left at third in free agency, so the Braves could begin the season with what they have at the position and opt for a power bat at another spot (Marcell Ozuna? Nicholas Castellanos?). On the other hand, there are two all-world trade chips in the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado looming on that market.

While Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Braves are “expected” to revisit previous talks with the Cubs regarding Bryant, David O’Brien of The Athletic throws a bit of cold water on that. The Braves “haven’t been gung-ho on either,” per O’Brien. As was reported previously, the Braves have concerns over Bryant’s defense. And the former MVP’s contract status figures to help stand in the way of a trade with the Braves or anyone else for at least a little while longer. The Cubs and the rest of the league continue to await word on whether Bryant has one or two years of control left after he filed a service-time grievance in October.

Similarly, there are questions over how much longer it’ll be before Arenado becomes a free agent. Unlike Bryant, Arenado is on a long-term contract – a guaranteed $234MM over seven years – but he will be able to opt out of it after his age-30 season in 2021. The massive amount left on Arenado’s deal, his opt-out rights and a hesitance to surrender multiple prospects for him have led to wariness from the Braves, according to O’Brien.

As of last month, general manager Alex Anthopolous and the Braves were on the hunt for a middle-of-the-order hitter. The hope then was that Donaldson would take on that role again in 2020, but the two-time reigning NL East champions’ lineup suddenly looks much weaker now that he’s gone. With strong free-agent options dwindling, the Braves hardly shoo-ins to land either Bryant or Arenado, and their projected Opening-Day payroll ($140MM) already $5MM higher than last year’s season-ending outlay, it’s unclear where the Braves will go from here.

Cubs, Jason Adam Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Jason Adam, tweets Robert Murray. It’s a minor league pact with an invite to Major League Spring Training, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. Adam, who is represented by Platinum Sports, has already passed his physical.

The 28-year-old Adam posted a 2.91 ERA in 21 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2019 but was cut loose in early December. Looking beyond that ERA, however, Adam’s 3.95 FIP and 6.20 xFIP are more alarming. His 18-to-10 K/BB ratio, 25 percent ground-ball rate and .237 average on balls in play all serve as red flags as well. On the flipside of things, the spin rate on Adam’s heater landed in the 98th percentile among MLB hurlers, and he averaged a hearty 94.7 mph on the pitch. He’s also pitched to a combined 2.14 ERA in 42 innings at the Triple-A level across the past two seasons.

If Adam does ultimately make the roster, he has two minor league option years remaining, so he can be shuttled between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa if the team sees fit. He also has less than a full season of Major League service at present, so he wouldn’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2021-22 offseason at the earliest — and more likely not until the 2022-23 offseason.

Athletics Acquire Tony Kemp

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2:20pm: The Athletics announced that Kemp has been acquired in exchange for minor league infielder Alfonso Rivas. Oakland’s 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

1:55pm: The Athletics have acquired infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp in a trade with the Cubs, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). He’s just one name involved in a multiplayer trade, per Slusser.

Kemp, 28, appeared in 110 games between the Astros and Cubs in 2019, going from the former to the latter in exchange for catcher Martin Maldonado prior to the July 31 trade deadline. In 279 plate appearances, he mustered just a .212/.291/.380 slash with eight homers, nine doubles, four triples and four steals. Long one of Houston’s more intriguing prospects, Kemp has yet to find sustained success at the MLB level. He’ll give the A’s an option to insert into their second base and corner outfield mix, but he’s also out of minor league options, so he’ll need to break camp with the club out of Spring Training or else be moved to another club or designated for assignment.

The A’s have reportedly been on the hunt for some left-handed depth all winter, and Kemp will bring some southpaw-swinging versatility to their bench mix. He’s played all three outfield positions and second base in both the big leagues and in his minor league career. And although he hasn’t hit much in the Majors, Kemp is a lifetime .312/.373/.425 hitter in four Triple-A seasons.

Rivas, 23, was Oakland’s fourth-round pick as recently as 2018. He’s worked mostly as a first baseman but seen brief time in the outfield corners as well. The University of Arizona product has,to this point in his pro career, shown a strong knack for getting on base but minimal power, compiling a .290/.390/.411 slash through 800 professional plate appearances. He’s walked at a 13 percent clip against a 20.5 percent strikeout rate and briefly reached the Triple-A level in 2019 — albeit only in a six-game cameo after skipping over Double-A entirely. An assignment to Double-A with the Cubs to open the 2020 season seems likeliest.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Latest NL Central Chatter

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It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.

More from the NL Central:

  • The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
  • There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
  • The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.

Cubs To Sign Carlos Asuaje

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The Cubs have reached a minor-league deal with utilityman Carlos Asuaje, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). Further details aren’t yet known.

Asuaje, 28, has seen action in parts of three MLB campaigns but has failed to capitalize on the opportunities. He’s just a .240/.312/.329 hitter with six long balls through 586 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Last year, the former Red Sox and Padres prospect tried his hand at Korea’s top league. But he was cut loose after a disappointing 49-game run, over which he walked more than he struck out but produced very little power. Asuaje returned to take 186 plate appearances at Triple-A with the Diamondbacks organization, turning in a .239/.339/.403 slash that was good only for an 81 wRC+ in the offensively charged PCL.

It’s not exactly the notable move that Cubs fans have been waiting for, but Sharma suggests that Asuaje could be given a shot at cracking the MLB roster in camp. He’s primarily a second baseman but has seen time professionally at third base, left field, and (least of all) shortstop.

Offseason Notes: Nationals, Free Agents, Rays, Cubs, Bryant, Contreras

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The World Champion Washington Nationals are likely to move on from their remaining free agents, save for local institution Ryan Zimmerman and perhaps his first base partner Matt Adams, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. That means Daniel Hudson has likely priced himself out of the Nationals’ plans. Fernando Rodney could get another shot on a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has handed those out rather liberally this winter, and the bullpen barracks are looking pretty full: Javy Guerra, Fernando Abad, and David Hernandez are all competing for bullpen spots on minor league deals while Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, Tanner Rainey, Wander Suero and Roenis Elias look pretty good to secure their seats at the table. Hunter Strickland, and one of Joe Ross, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde could also very well end up in the bullpen, leaving just a spot or two as truly up for grabs. Brian Dozier, the last of the Nats’ five remaining free agents, is all but gone now that Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have been signed.

  • The Rays have pretty consistently made themselves a good place for January free agents to take their career to the next level, per John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times. A list of short-term additions late in the free agent season have gone on to produce in Tampa Bay and earn themselves a raise the following winter. The partial list of players who went on to earn bigger paydays after leaving Tampa includes Avisail Garcia, Logan Morrison, C.J. Cron, and Corey Dickerson. The time is now for the Rays, who typically strike about this time of year, and they still have needs to fill. Expect Tampa to add another bat and another catcher before the winter is out.
  • The Cubs have lingered in the shadows throughout the winter, and though a Kris Bryant trade has been clearly telegraphed, the star third baseman remains in Chicago due to asking price, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago. Speaking to people around the game, Kaplan found real skepticism that Bryant remains the foundational superstar he was in 2016. That hasn’t stopped the Cubs from asking for the moon, with the same being true of their asking price for Willson Contreras. Theo Epstein and the Cubs are in a tough place after seeing their championship window slam closed last season, and it’s understandable for the braintrust in Chicago to hold out hope for a franchise-altering return for one of their homegrown stars. But if the return they seek never materializes, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of alternative plan they can cook up to keep these Cubs viable.
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