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Tyler Chatwood Battling To Make Cubs' Roster

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Rangers pitcher Luke Farrell suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right jaw Saturday, the team announced. The injury occurred when a line drive off the bat of the Giants’ Jalen Miller struck Farrell in the face, forcing the right-hander out of the game and to a Scottsdale, Ariz., hospital for examination. Farrell has since been released from the hospital, but he’ll undergo further examination Monday, according to the Rangers. The son of former big league manager John Farrell, Luke Farrell is in his first spring with the Rangers, who claimed him off waivers from the Angels in January. The 27-year-old spent 2018 as a member of the Cubs, with whom he registered a 5.17 ERA/5.20 FIP and 11.2 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 in 31 1/3 innings.

  • Just 15 months removed from signing a three-year, $38MM contract with the Cubs, righty Tyler Chatwood isn’t a lock to make their roster this season, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune observes. Chatwood said Saturday he views himself as a starter, but he’s not a candidate for Chicago’s season-opening rotation if the quintet remains healthy, leaving him to fight for a long relief role. If he doesn’t win the job, the Cubs could try to trade Chatwood, but they’d have to eat a large chunk of the $25.5MM left on his contract in order to make that a realistic possibility, Gonzales notes. Chatwood was in the Cubs’ rotation for the majority of last season, as he made 20 starts in 24 appearances, but he managed a hideous 5.30 ERA/5.50 FIP and issued an eye-popping 95 walks in 103 2/3 innings. So far this spring, Chatwood has walked just one batter over five frames in his bid for a roster spot.

Hamels Hopes To Pitch For Another Decade

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  • Asked about his future in the game Wednesday, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels told a flock of reporters that he has zero intention of retiring anytime soon (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). There’s been little reason to think that Hamels, who just turned 35 in December, would give serious consideration to retirement, but his answer was nonetheless entertaining and telling of his goals. Hamels gave a blunt “Hell no!” when asked if he’s considered retirement and voiced a desire to play until he’s 45 years old, noting that he was a teammate of ageless wonder Jamie Moyer early in his career. Hamels had a rocky start to the season with the Rangers in 2018 but was revitalized by a trade to Chicago, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K.9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 76 1/3 innings with the Cubs (12 starts).

Kris Bryant: No Extension Talks With Cubs But Willing To Listen

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Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant discussed some largely hypothetical contractual matters today with reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Notably, he has not been approached by the organization about a potential long-term deal.

Bryant, 27, saw his productivity dip in an injury-limited 2018 campaign. But that’s only against his own lofty standards. Bryant, who’ll earn $12.9MM this year with two more arb seasons still to come, still rates among the best all-around players in baseball.

There was perhaps some reason to wonder whether the Cubs might see an opportunity to explore an extension, but that hasn’t happened yet. Bryant says he’d “be dumb not to hear anything they have to offer,” so it seems he’d be receptive to holding talks, though it also stands to reason that he’d put a lofty asking price on his future rights.

From a broader perspective, Bryant suggested that the recent extension of Nolan Arenado was a promising development in a player market that is still adjusting to the current collective bargaining agreement. “It’s nice to see another third baseman sign for that much,” he said.

Though Bryant is in quite a different situation than Arenado, who’s only ten months older and would have been a free agent after the coming season, the just-inked contract certainly bears on a hypothetical extension for the former. Bryant is arguably a slightly superior player, after all, and both sides would likely see the AAV on Arenado’s bought-out free-agent seasons as a highly relevant comp.

Zooming out yet further, Bryant also emphasized the fact that smaller-market teams have given out some of the biggest contracts in recent years. Players, he suggests, are well aware of teams’ spending capacities: “Everybody has money. We’re not stupid.”

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

Yu Darvish Feels Good After First Spring Outing

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Though he was clearly carrying plenty of rust, Cubs righty Yu Darvish nevertheless turned in a rather promising first spring outing today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. Darvish says he felt great and the radar guns reflected it. While he struggled a bit to stay in the zone, that’s a secondary concern at this point given the major health ailments that ruined his 2018 season. With $101MM still owed to Darvish over the next five years, the Cubs have to be encouraged to see him feeling strong, though he still has a ways to go to reestablish himself as a front-line starter.

Cubs Yet To Discuss Extensions With Javy Baez, Kyle Hendricks

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The Cubs haven’t yet begun talks with second baseman Javier Baez or right-hander Kyle Hendricks about potential contract extensions, the two players told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Both said that they “would love to stay” with the team over the long term, and would welcome such negotiations if they took place.

Both Baez and Hendricks avoided arbitration with the Cubs this winter, agreeing to respective salaries of $5.2MM and $7.405MM for the 2019 season.  Baez was arb-eligible for the first of three times this winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2021 campaign, while Hendricks was in his second arbitration year and can become a free agent after the 2020 season.

It is still early in spring camp, and the Cubs could yet begin talks with Baez, Hendricks, or any number of players over the coming weeks.  Still, Baez and Hendricks stand out as perhaps the two most obvious extension candidates on the roster, even beyond the notable players who could be free agents after the 2019 season.  Of that group, the Cubs control Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana via club options for 2020, while the team probably isn’t likely to explore extending veterans like Cole Hamels or Ben Zobrist until later in the year or even after the season, to guard against declines from either veteran (Hamels is 35, Zobrist is 37).

Baez broke out as one of the game’s best all-around players last season, hitting .290/.326/.554 with 34 homers and a league-high 111 RBI over 645 plate appearances.  Baez augmented his first above-average run producing (131 wRC+) season with solid overall baserunning that included 21 steals, as well as his typically strong glovework at multiple infield positions (699 2/3 innings at second base, 462 2/3 IP at shortstop, 142 2/3 IP at third base).  Among all position players, Baez ranked 10th in bWAR (6.3) and 14th in fWAR (5.3) last season.

With Kris Bryant indicating a willingness to go year-to-year until he reaches free agency after 2021, Baez stands out as the Cubs’ top young building block.  Among other recent young infielders to sign extensions, Eugenio Suarez’s seven-year, $66MM deal with the Reds and Jean Segura’s five-year, $70MM extension with the Mariners could be potential comps, even if neither quite fit Baez’s situation.  For instance, Suarez was locking in his first big professional payday as something of a surprise breakout performer, whereas Baez was a hyped prospect for years before reaching the big leagues.  Segura was also over a year older at the time of his extension than Baez is now, and had only one arbitration year remaining.

Hendricks, meanwhile, has been a solid and usually durable member of Chicago’s rotation for four seasons.  Something of a throwback pitcher with a sub-90mph fastball, Hendricks has relied on soft-to-medium contact rather than big strikeouts (career 7.62 K/9) to good effect in his career, posting a 3.14 ERA over the 708 2/3 innings since 2015.  The 29-year-old’s best season came in the Cubs’ World Series campaign of 2016, when Hendricks posted a league-best 2.13 ERA.

Hendricks’ arsenal might help him project better as a long-term investment for the Cubs or potential future free agent suitors, as it isn’t like he is a hard-tossing strikeout artist who could be more apt to decline with a loss in velocity.  What could harm Hendricks’ chances at an extension, however, is that Chicago made such a huge investment in its starting staff, and gotten next to nothing in return from Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood.  Beyond 2020, however, Hamels, Chatwood, Quintana, and potentially Jon Lester (depending on a vesting option) will no longer be on the books, leaving the Cubs in search of arms.  Prospects like Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, or Justin Steele could be contributing by that point, of course, though the Cubs might also want to have another solid veteran on hand to augment that bunch.  (Also, the Cubs have had enough difficulty in developing pitchers in recent years that relying on prospects doesn’t seem sound.)

Of course, as Wittenmyer notes, discussions about extensions also need to factor in whether a player could be more apt to sign an extension rather than test an increasingly hostile free agent market.  “You have to look at what’s going on around the league, for sure.  You have to educate yourself on things that have happened in the past and what the market looks like now, then make the best decision possible,” Hendricks said.  The threat of a potential work stoppage could impact Baez the most directly, as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, 2021 — roughly a month after Baez is eligible to hit free agency.

Montgomery On Hamels' Return, 2019 Role

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  • Cole Hamels’ return to the Cubs all but eliminated Mike Montgomery’s chances of opening the season in the team’s rotation, but Montgomery nonetheless tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he was “rooting” for the team to retain Hamels. Montgomery will return to a role with which he’s quite familiar — one that requires him to be ready to start, pitch in high-leverage spots late in games and also to enter in multi-inning stints as needed. “Be a guy that can start 20 games or close 20 games, because it has to be [that way],” said Montgomery. As Bastian notes, Montgomery not only started 19 games in Chicago last season, he also entered the game in eight different innings as a reliever and pitched multiple innings of relief on seven occasions. The versatile lefty is controlled through the 2021 season and will earn $2.44MM in 2019 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player.

Maddon: Cubs Not Likely To Add To Roster

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  • Potential new additions have “not been a heavy part of the discussion” between Cubs skipper Joe Maddon and the front office, Maddon told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  “That doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen; I’m not saying that,” Maddon said.  “But…I anticipate what you see showing up tomorrow [at camp], the [Opening Day] group’s going to be derived from that group.”  It has been a quiet offseason for a Cubs team that is seemingly dealing with strict budget restraints, as the Northsiders try to stay under the $246MM payroll mark (to avoid a larger luxury tax penalty).

NL Central Notes: Tazawa, Brach, Pirates, Goldschmidt

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Junichi Tazawa is set to arrive in Cubs camp on Monday after working out visa issues that delayed his arrival, per the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales. Tazawa remains a long shot to make the Cubs Opening Day roster, as he hasn’t been an asset to a major league bullpen since 2016 with the Red Sox. After posting a 7.07 ERA for the Marlins and Angels last season, Tazawa looks to re-establish himself in Cubs camp for former employer Theo Epstein, though again, the window of opportunity in Chicago is slim. Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Kintzler, and newcomer Brad Brach all figure to hold down spots in the Chicago pen, leaving Tazawa to compete for the final remaining innings with Xavier Cedeno, Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills, Brian Duensing, Dillon Maples, Randy Rosario, and a few others. Brandon Morrow’s injury provides a limited-time opportunity for someone, but he’ll obviously take over one of those open spots when he returns for the injured list. Here are a few more notes from the Cubs bullpen and the rest of the NL Central…

  • A couple weeks before being traded from the Orioles to the Braves last season, reliever Brad Brach noticed his arm slot had shifted higher than usual, writes the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. When his release point shifts over-the-top, Brach loses some of the deception in his delivery and changes the plane of his pitch movement. He is cognizant, however, that he’s more effective as he stays closer to a three-quarters delivery. The mechanical adjustment certainly seemed to help as he turned in 23 2/3 innings of 1.52 ERA ball after joining the Braves. His peripherals don’t wholly buy the shift in performance, but his fastball command certainly improved and that’s the foundation of his arsenal. Of course, the revelation is only one part of the process, as refining and automating the lower arm slot will continue to be a process as he starts throwing again this season. If Brach can repeat his delivery consistently, he may prove to be a significant addition to a Cubs pen who needs the help.
  • Brach should have no trouble keeping his competitive edge with the Cubs, who are facing a dogfight in a tight National League Central. There’s no tanking here, where the Reds have raised the floor with marked improvements to their rotation this offseason. The Cardinals and Brewers have made obvious win-now additions this winter as well, and while the Cubs have largely stood pat (excepting additions like Brach above), there’s little doubt they will be in the competitive mix once again. The sleeper in the division and maybe the league is the Pirates, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The PECOTA projection system has the Pirates ahead of the Cubs, and though they’ve been quiet this winter, their biggest additions were made at least year’s deadline when they traded for Chris Archer and Keone Kela. It would certainly be a surprise for the Pirates to steal the NL Central from such a crowded field, but they’re only three years removed from the most successful stretch in recent franchise history and they finished above .500 last season. A Pirates division title would be surprising, for sure, but it’s not inconceivable.
  • In a video for CBS Sports, Jim Bowden expresses optimism that Paul Goldschmidt will outperform both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado en route to an MVP-type season. Goldschmidt should certainly bolster the Cardinals offense in 2019, though his long-term future with the club remains uncertain. The Cardinals are pursuing an extension with Goldschmidt, and given the current free agent market, Goldy would be wise to at least consider locking up his long-term future now if the offer is fair.

Cubs Sign Xavier Cedeno

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Feb. 15: Chicago’s announcement of the contract reveals that Cedeno’s contract is actually a non-guaranteed Major League deal, meaning he’s been added to the team’s 40-man roster. He can still be cut for only a portion of that salary this spring, but the Cubs would be on the hook for the full $900K if he makes the Opening Day roster.

Feb. 13, 8:28pm: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Cedeno can earn an additional $300K worth of incentives on the contract. He’ll be in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.

7:52pm: The Cubs are in agreement on a contract with left-handed reliever Xavier Cedeno, per Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Mooney further tweets that it’s a non-guaranteed deal that would pay Cedeno a $900K base salary if he makes the roster. Cedeno is represented by MDR Sports Management.

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein voiced earlier this week that he hoped to be able to “squeeze” one more reliever into the team’s apparently limited budget (Twitter link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago), and landing Cedeno on a non-guaranteed deal is certainly a nice means of doing so. The southpaw split the 2018 season between the White Sox and the Brewers, pitching to a terrific 2.43 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9 and a 54.4 percent ground-ball rate in 33 1/3 innings. That marked a strong bounceback effort for the former Rays reliever, who pitched just three innings in 2017 owing to a forearm injury.

Though the 32-year-old Cedeno is far from a household name, he had a solid run from 2014-16 leading up to that forearm issue. In 94 1/3 innings in that time, he worked to a 3.05 ERA with 95 strikeouts against 27 walks with just seven home runs allowed. He’s been especially hard on left-handed hitters throughout his career, holding same-handed opponents to a bleak .218/.285/.298 batting line over the life of 384 plate appearances.

The Cubs aren’t exactly short on left-handed volume in the ’pen, with Mike Montgomery, Brian Duensing, Randy Rosario and Kyle Ryan each already on the 40-man roster, though Cedeno will give them yet another depth option with a fair bit of MLB experience to add to that mix.

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