Cubs Reinstate Oscar De La Cruz, Transfer Tony Barnette To 60-Day IL
The Cubs announced Friday that they’ve reinstated minor league right-hander Oscar De La Cruz from the restricted list now that his 80-game suspension has been completed. In order to open a spot for De La Cruz on the 40-man roster, Chicago transferred Tony Barnette from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.
De La Cruz, 24, received an 80-game suspension last July after testing positive for the banned substance furosemide. He’d been working through his first season at the Double-A level and struggling a bit, having pitched to a 5.24 ERA with diminished control through 16 starts.
De La Cruz was the Cubs’ top-ranked prospect by some outlets back in 2017 but has seen his stock dip in recent years — even before being hit with this suspension. He’s made three starts with Class-A Advanced Myrtle Beach this season, as the league’s drug policy allows players to make unpaid rehab appearances to get up to speed at the tail end of suspensions. He’ll head to Double-A Tennessee.
As for Barnette, the former Rangers reliever was signed to a big league contract this winter but hit the injured list late in Spring Training due to inflammation in his shoulder. The 35-year-old had been pitching on a rehab assignment in Triple-A Iowa, but the Cubs’ press release indicates that Barnette was pulled back from that assignment. Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets that Barnette is still experiencing tightness in his problematic shoulder, so it seems as though he won’t be an option for the Cubs anytime in the near future.
Cubs Reinstate, Option Addison Russell
May 2: The move is official. The Cubs have reinstated Russell to the 40-man roster and optioned him to Triple-A. Injured closer Brandon Morrow, who was recently shut down from throwing for at least two weeks following an injection, was moved from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Russell.
April 30: The Cubs will option infielder Addison Russell to Triple-A Iowa when he is activated from the restricted list Thursday, the team revealed to reporters (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenymyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). He’s yet to play in the Majors in 2019 due to a 40-game suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy (which was issued back in September).
Russell will split time between shortstop and second base in Iowa, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). He’s previously served as Chicago’s primary shortstop in large part because of his defensive abilities — Russell has just a career .242/.313/.392 line at the plate and tallied a career-low five homers in 2018 — but Javier Baez has thrived both offensively and defensively in that spot this season. Offseason signee Daniel Descalso has seen the lion’s share of playing time at second base so far in 2019 and posted an overall .268/.358/.380 in 81 trips to the plate. David Bote and Ben Zobrist, too, have chipped in at second base in the season’s early stages, though Zobrist has yet to replicate last year’s production.
The 25-year-old Russell won’t accrue service time on his optional assignment, of course, and it’s not clear when he’ll return to the Majors. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein suggested that the time in Triple-A will serve as a means of allowing Russell to get up to speed after the early downtime, which could point to several weeks in the minors for Russell. He’s already played six games with Iowa, as league policy allows players to begin an unpaid minor league assignment toward the end of their suspensions.
One would imagine that once the organization decides to bring Russell back to the MLB level, he could supplant outfielder Mark Zagunis on the active roster, though the overall health of the roster at that point will obviously dictate the corresponding move to facilitate Russell’s return.
Latest On Brandon Morrow
Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow received an injection of “synthetic lubricant” earlier this week in the latest bid to get him back to health, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was among those to cover on Twitter. He’ll be shut down for at least two weeks before he can resume throwing.
Morrow had been shut down recently after experiencing a setback in his rehab effort. He underwent elbow surgery last November after problems in and around the joint cost him the latter half of the 2018 season.
The news of the injection provides another rough timeline, though it’s tough at this point to assume things will go according to plan. As Wittenmyer notes, the best-case-scenario now is probably that Morrow makes it back to the MLB mound some time in July — about a year after he went on the shelf with an issue that was then expected only to cost him a few weeks.
A fully functioning version of the 34-year-old Morrow would make for a heck of a mid-season addition. The Cubs have hit their stride of late but still face a season-long battle in a tough division. With payroll constraints and a farm system that has already been mined rather heavily for promotions and trade chips in recent years, the oft-injured Morrow may yet be the organization’s best hope for a boost in the bullpen.
Unless and until he’s fully up to speed, the Cubs will likely continue to rely upon Pedro Strop as the primary closer. Steve Cishek, Brad Brach, and Brandon Kintzler also have substantial late-inning experience in the majors.
NL Notes: Nats’ Injuries, Mesoraco, Brewers, Nelson, Russell
A pair of Nationals infielders are currently dealing with injuries, as the club placed Ryan Zimmerman on the 10-day injured list with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Meanwhile, third baseman Anthony Rendon is dealing with a contusion on his left elbow that caused him to miss four games before he returned to the lineup for Friday’s series opener versus the Padres, only to feel soreness after the game, keeping him out of action on Saturday and Sunday. Though Rendon has thus far avoided a stint on the IL, manager Dave Martinez told Mark Zuckerman of MASN (Twitter link) that the Nationals may have to “do something different” if the injury prevents him from playing again on Monday. It’s certainly not welcome news for the Nationals, who have already seen injuries to fellow infielder Trea Turner, who is still recovering from a broken finger. There’s no timetable for Zimmerman’s return, though it figures to be several weeks before he is able to return to the diamond. Since Rendon has missed six of the last seven games, it seems somewhat curious that he wasn’t placed on the injured list, a decision that has left the Nats with a thin bench for the past week. And if an IL stint is necessary, it could keep Rendon out of action for longer than necessary, a loss that the Nationals can ill afford in the midst of a tight division race.
Here’s the latest news from around the National League…
- Despite the Mets’ recent decision to designate catcher Travis d’Arnaud for assignment, it does not appear that veteran Devin Mesoraco plans to report to Triple-A Syracuse. Mesoraco, currently on the restricted list after refusing a minor league assignment, has an “open door” to rejoin the team, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. However, all indications are that Mesoraco will instead elect to retire, though the backstop has not taken any formal action towards that end, says Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Sans d’Arnaud, the Mets will turn to Tomas Nido to back up Wilson Ramos, and while Mesoraco remains officially part of the organization, it seems unlikely that he will return to the catching mix.
- Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson will have to wait to begin his rehab assignment, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Originally scheduled to make his first start with Triple-A San Antonio on Sunday, Nelson instead returned to Houston to be with his wife for the premature birth of their twin daughters. Nelson missed all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery in 2017 and is working towards returning to action for the Brewers this season, though his rehab assignment will have to wait for the time being, with no timetable for Nelson’s next pitching assignment.
- With Cubs infielder Addison Russell eligible to return from his 40-game suspension as early as May 3, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes that the team will have to consider a reconfiguration of its infield rotation should Chicago choose to reinstate Russell. A shortstop by trade, Russell is currently blocked by Javier Baez, who has excelled at the position in 2019. Russell has not played second base in the Majors since 2015, and the keystone is currently occupied Ben Zobrist and Daniel Descalso. In an already crowded infield, the Cubs may not have room for Russell, owner of a career .704 OPS.
Quick Hits: Brewers, Cubs, Rays, Mariners
Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson last took a major league mound Sept. 8, 2017, when he suffered a partially torn labrum that derailed a breakout season. Almost 20 months later, it appears Nelson is nearing a return to the majors. The 29-year-old, who has been pitching in extended spring training, will begin a rehab assignment Sunday at the Triple-A level, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. In another piece of encouraging news for the Brewers’ struggling rotation, righty Freddy Peralta could rejoin the team after his Double-A rehab start Saturday, manager Craig Counsell said. Peralta went to the IL on April 16 with a shoulder issue. The 24-year-old has only managed a 7.13 ERA/5.82 FIP with a 21.1 percent groundball rate in four starts this season, though he also logged 11.21 K/9 against 3.57 BB/9 during that 17 2/3-inning span.
Here’s more from around the majors…
- The Cubs shut down injured reliever Brandon Morrow a week ago, but he’s nonetheless optimistic he’ll pitch this year, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. Biceps and elbow problems have prevented Morrow from taking the hill since last July, adding to the unfortunate array of injuries the 34-year-old has dealt with during his career. “Every injury I’ve come back the same or better,” Morrow told Rogers. “Frustrating it’s going to be a little longer but just needs a little more time to heal.” Morrow will have a Synvisc injection Monday to “lubricate and help to protect the area around my elbow,” though Rogers notes it’s not a permanent solution. In the event Morrow doesn’t come back this season, it’s possible he has thrown his last pitch with the Cubs. They’ll have a chance to buy him out for $3MM in lieu of a $12MM vesting option over the winter. In the meantime, their bullpen has clearly missed a healthy Morrow this season, having posted a 4.84 ERA with 5.63 BB/9.
- Rays second baseman Joey Wendle‘s fractured right wrist will shelve him for at least six to eight weeks, according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). This season has been an injury-riddled nightmare for Wendle, who previously missed three weeks on account of a left hamstring strain. Wendle hasn’t gotten to properly follow up last year’s impressive rookie showing as a result. The first-place Rays have held their own without him, though, thanks in part to second base replacement Brandon Lowe.
- Longtime major league center fielder Mike Cameron has accepted a coaching job in the Mariners organization, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. The 46-year-old Cameron will work with Mariners outfielders on defense and baserunning, largely at the minor league level. Cameron excelled in those two areas during his MLB career, which spanned from 1995-2011 and included a tremendous four-year run in Seattle from 2000-03. He was a key cog on the ’01 Mariners, who won 116 regular-season games and still stand as the franchise’s most recent playoff team.
Injury Notes: Rendon, Lester, Cobb, Angels
Third baseman Anthony Rendon departed the Nationals’ loss to the Marlins on Saturday after taking a 95 mph Jose Urena fastball off the left elbow. Fortunately for Rendon and the Nationals, X-rays came back negative, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. It’s unclear whether Rendon will avoid the injured list, though, as manager Dave Martinez said the Nats will reevaluate the 28-year-old Sunday morning. An IL stint would be another unlucky development for the Nationals, who are already missing injured shortstop Trea Turner along the left side of their infield. They’ve gone just 9-10 thanks in part to Turner’s absence, though Rendon has tried his best to lift the team with an all-world showing thus far. Rendon’s consistently great output in Washington may help him land a contract extension.
- A hamstring injury forced Cubs left-hander Jon Lester to the IL on April 9, though it appears the well-respected hurler is nearing a return. The Cubs could activate Lester during their upcoming series against the Dodgers, which runs from Tuesday to Thursday, the Associated Press relays. The 35-year-old looked “very good” during a 45-pitch sim game Saturday, according to manager Joe Maddon. The Maddon-led Cubs haven’t needed a replacement starter since Lester went down, instead relying on Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and the struggling Yu Darvish, but that will change Sunday when Tyler Chatwood takes the ball against Arizona. Chatwood fell on his face as a starter during a walk-happy 2018, the first season of a three-year, $38MM contract, and has continued to exhibit control problems as a reliever this season.
- The Orioles brought righty Alex Cobb off the IL on Saturday to make his first start since a right lumbar strain sent him to the shelf on April 6. In hindsight, the Orioles probably wish they’d have started someone else. Cobb endured one of the worst outings in his career in a loss to the Twins, who thrashed him for nine earned runs on 10 hits and three homers in 2 2/3 frames. It continued a subpar Orioles tenure for Cobb, now in the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract. The rebuilding Orioles would likely jump at the chance to deal him, but Cobb’s ongoing woes won’t make it easy to find a taker.
- The Angels are off to a dreary start, in part because their rotation is banged up yet again. Oft-injured starters Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano are making progress, though, per reports from Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Skaggs, on the IL since April 15 because of a left ankle sprain, enjoyed a productive bullpen session Saturday and may return as early as Tuesday. Heaney’s still a ways off because of elbow issues, though he could get back on a mound within the next week, Fletcher writes, and manager Brad Ausmus said Saturday his rehab has been “all positive so far.” Tropeano, who’s on the mend from a right shoulder strain, threw a four-inning sim game Saturday and is nearing activation. The Angels will option Tropeano to Triple-A Salt Lake when he does exit the IL, Bollinger suggests.
NL Notes: Kimbrel, Mets, Brewers, Giants, Morrow, Cubs
Free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel is “still in touch” with the Mets and Brewers, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who notes that the Mets would only sign the 30-year-old if he were open to “any role” in the team’s bullpen. Rosenthal reported a week ago that the flamethrower’s price has dropped substantially, though whether or not he’s budged on the desire to pitch only in the ninth inning is still an open question. Both clubs’ pens have been far shakier than anticipated in the early going: indeed, apart from the lights-out performance of offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz, New York’s pen has arguably been the league’s worst. Milwaukee, too, has lost Corey Knebel to Tommy John, was without stalwart Jeremy Jeffress until this week, and has gotten middling-at-best output from all other contributors not named Josh Hader. Still, it’s the sloppy rotation – beset by a thus-far return to normalcy from Jhoulys Chacin and a gopher-ball binge embarked upon by rookies Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta – that seems most in need of the Crew’s attention. Allocating what little resources purportedly remain to anything other than a veteran starter would seem a curious choice indeed.
In other news from around the Senior Circuit…
- Per Rosenthal, the Giants are already “willing to talk” about some of their veteran relievers, though closer Will Smith doesn’t appear to be among the names on the list. Lefty Tony Watson, who’s seen his average fastball velocity dip to a career-low 91.0 MPH, figures to be at the fore, along with the richly-paid Mark Melancon. Sam Dyson, Trevor Gott, and Nick Vincent, all of whom’ve had strong 2019 debuts, would likely also be in the mix, with the former’s $5MM 2019 salary seemingly the impetus for such an early position on the block. The club would likely jump at the chance to move Melancon, 34, who’s owed approximately $29MM through 2020. The former closer hasn’t allowed a run thus far in ten ’19 IP, but signs of major regression lurk beneath: the righty’s allowed hard contact at a rate of above 40% for the second consecutive season (after a career-high of 27.1% in his first nine MLB campaigns), has seen his swinging strike rate plummet to a career-worst 8.0%, and is again failing to strike batters out at an alarming rate. Any Melancon move would likely need to be offset by either another bad contract or a significant chunk of change heading with him, but the ever-creative Farhan Zaidi may yet have something up his sleeve.
- Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow, who’s mixed occasional big-league appearances around a litany of DL/IL stints in his 13-year MLB career, has been shut down in his attempted return from a right elbow injury. The 34-year-old was scheduled to miss just the season’s first month, but “did not recover well” from a bullpen session he threw earlier this week, according to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. The club, who’s already shuffled multiple bullpen pieces after a disastrous late-inning start in the early going, was counting heavily on Morrow to stabilize the mishmash crew. No timetable’s been set for the righty’s return, so the club will have to lean primarily on the well-traveled arms of Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler in close-and-late situations.
Health Notes: Venters, Ohtani, Caratini, Tepera
The Braves announced today that they’ve placed southpaw Jonny Venters on the 10-day injured list. He’s dealing with a strained calf, though his struggles likely played a role in the timing. Venters made a miraculous return to the majors last year after five full seasons away owing to a brutal run of arm injuries. He pitched well enough to be tendered by the Atlanta organization. But Venters struggled this spring and has continued to do so through six regular-season appearances, over which he has surrendered six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings.
More on the health front …
- A return is finally in sight for Angels DH (and once and future starting pitcher) Shohei Ohtani, who’s nearing readiness after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. As Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com was among those to tweet, the reigning Rookie of the Year had a promising medical check-up today. So long as nothing intervenes, he’ll begin taking cuts against live pitching early next week. It’s not hard to imagine Ohtani ramping up quickly from that point in time.
- Backup Cubs backstop Victor Caratini underwent surgery to repair his broken left hamate bone, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports on Twitter. That’s not surprising news, and doesn’t really modify his expected timeline. It’ll be about four to six weeks on the mend for Caratini, who’ll presumably need to ramp back up therafter and take at least a brief rehab stint. Even if all goes as hoped, it’s likely the Cubs ill go without him until June.
- The Blue Jays have some relief on the way with right-hander Ryan Tepera set to be activated in the next day or two, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisolm tweets. The elbow inflammation that put Tepera on the shelf to open the year has obviously not proven to be too big a concern, as the 31-year-old is ready to roll after just two minor-league rehab appearances. Tepera has been a solid pen piece for the Toronto organization, turning in 193 2/3 innings of 3.49 ball over the past four seasons.
Poll: Slow-Starting Playoff Contenders
The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Rockies were among the majors’ most successful clubs in 2018, when the quartet comprised 40 percent of the league’s playoff bracket. No one was better than the Red Sox, who rolled to 108 regular-season wins before steamrolling the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in the postseason en route to their latest World Series title. The Yankees, despite their loss to archrival Boston, enjoyed a more-than-respectable year in which they notched 100 victories. And Colorado knocked out Chicago in the National League wild-card game, a battle of two 90-plus-win teams, before succumbing to Milwaukee in the divisional round.
Given the excellence those clubs displayed last year, it would have been fair to expect each of them to earn playoff berths again in 2019. Instead, while we’re just a couple weeks into the season, all of those teams have tripped out of the starting block, having combined for 19 wins in 58 games. They’re the only members of last year’s playoff field that are under .500 at this point.
Boston, whose roster is almost the same as its title-winning version (sans relievers Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly), dropped a game to the lowly Orioles on Saturday. Fifteen contests into the season, the Red Sox have already lost 10 times – something they didn’t do until Game 35 a year ago. Neither their all-world offense nor their high-end pitching staff from 2018 have come close to replicating those performances thus far, and questions have swirled around ace Chris Sale. Signed to a five-year, $145MM extension before the season, Sale’s velocity – which began dropping amid an injury-limited 2018 – has continued to plummet. Unsurprisingly, the 30-year-old’s effectiveness has waned as his fastball has lost power. Not only has Sale allowed an earned run per inning across 13 frames, but one of baseball’s all-time strikeout artists has fanned just eight batters.
Maybe Sale is battling a physical issue, but the Yankees are dealing with plenty of their own. Eleven of their players, including standouts Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks and Dellin Betances are on the IL. The majority of that group won’t be back in the near future – or perhaps until 2020 in the case of Andujar – while Severino, Gregorius, Hicks and Betances haven’t suited up yet this year. With so many integral contributors unavailable, the Yankees have started 6-8. That would be less concerning if not for their inability to capitalize on an easy early season schedule. The Yankees have played 11 games against the Orioles, Tigers and White Sox, all of whom are regarded as bottom feeders, and only won six of those matchups. The AL East rival Rays (11-4) have taken advantage, evidenced by their 4.5-game lead on New York and their six-game edge over Boston.
Over in the NL, the Cubs – on the heels of a widely panned offseason – have sputtered to a 5-9 showing and a four-game deficit in the Central, which could be one of the majors’ most competitive divisions. Although cornerstone hitters Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber haven’t resembled their best selves, the Cubs’ offense has still done well statistically. Their pitching has been abysmal, on the other hand. Yu Darvish, who’s in Year 2 of a huge contract, continues to perform nothing like the pitcher he was pre-Chicago, while the bullpen the Cubs did little to bolster over the winter has looked predictably vulnerable.
Speaking of vulnerable, the Rockies have christened their season with the majors’ worst record (3-12) and its last-ranked run differential (minus-36). If the Rockies are going to overcome their horrific start to pick up their third straight playoff appearance, they’ll need far more from their position players. Their hitters have put together a woeful 37 wRC+ and minus-2.6 fWAR, both of which easily rank last in the game. Injuries have played a part, as regulars David Dahl, Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon are all on the IL. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ primary offensive catalysts – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon – have all been duds so far. Those three won’t stay down forever, though, and Colorado’s starting staff also has the talent to rebound from its early season mediocrity. But the Rockies can’t afford to let this skid continue to fester, especially considering they’re stuck in a division with the perennial champion Dodgers. Realistically, it’s wild card or bust for the Rockies, but rallying to steal one of those two spots in a crowded NL won’t be easy.
While it would be unwise to panic on April 13, there are more reasons for concern than expected in all of these teams’ cases. Then again, the same was said last year about the Dodgers, who began 16-26 on their way to 92 wins and another pennant. The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Rockies can take solace in that, perhaps, but do you believe any of them are already in serious trouble?
(poll link for app users)
Are any of these slow starters in real trouble?
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Rockies 26% (3,683)
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Cubs 25% (3,529)
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No, it's too early 20% (2,822)
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Red Sox 19% (2,687)
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Yankees 11% (1,508)
Total votes: 14,229
Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions
Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.
Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.
Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).
J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.