Extension Candidate: Carlos Marmol
Carlos Marmol and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $2.125MM contract last February as the reliever and club avoided a hearing in Marmol's first arbitration season. The deal gave Marmol almost four times what he earned in 2009, and he'll be up for another big raise this winter whether he and the Cubs work out another one-year deal or if they pursue a longer-term option.
Marmol took over as Chicago's closer midway through the 2009 season, but his control problems made some wonder whether Marmol could last in the role. While Marmol is still walking more batters than the Cubs would like (a 6.1 BB/9 rate), it's still an improvement over the 7.9 BB/9 rate that he posted last year. More importantly, Marmol has also improved his ERA, WHIP, hits/9 rate and K/BB ratio from 2009, and upped his already-impressive 11.3 K/9 rate last season to a whopping 15.9 K/9 in 2010. His 62 games finished are also the most in baseball.
Should the Cubs wish to pursue a one-year deal with Marmol again, Heath Bell's one-year, $4MM deal with the Padres last winter is a suitable model. Bell, like Marmol, was coming off his first season as his team's closer and delivered an All-Star performance. Bell's 2009 and Marmol's 2010 were pretty similarly impressive — Bell had the better K/BB ratio, BB/9 and WHIP, while Marmol has the superior K/9 rate, HR/9, hits/9, and has already thrown more innings. Bell did have the advantage of pitching at PETCO Park, so between that and inflation, Marmol has an argument that he should earn closer to $5MM than $4MM.
In terms of a multi-year option, Marmol and agent Barry Praver will look at Brian Wilson's two-year, $15MM extension with San Francisco as a starting point. While Wilson has certainly pitched well enough this season to lower some of the eyebrows that were raised when he signed that extension last winter, the Cubs may hesitate to commit that much money to Marmol given his still-present control issues. It should be noted, however, that even with Marmol's 2009 wildness, he still put up a 3.41 ERA and held opposing batters to a .170 average, so it's not like he pitched poorly. If Marmol's 2011 season is akin to his 2009, it would still be a campaign that the Cubs wouldn't feel sick about paying around $7.5MM to keep.
Given Marmol's high ceiling, the Cubs might be wise to shoot for an option-heavy contract similar to the one that their ex-closer Kevin Gregg received from the Blue Jays last winter. Gregg received $2.75MM for 2010, and the Jays can pick up a 2011 option for $4.5MM or an option for both 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75MM. Obviously Toronto was able to get such a team-friendly deal since Gregg struggled in 2009, but if the Cubs double the dollar amounts, Marmol might accept the cost-certainty. The last option year (that would theoretically cover Marmol's first free agent year) could be adjusted to a mutual option, giving Marmol the ability to walk away after 2012 if he thinks there's an eight-figure offer on the market. If Marmol keeps up his form from the last four seasons, such an offer would certainly exist.
Chicago already has approximately $103MM committed to next year's payroll, and that's not counting the pay bump that Geovany Soto (an extension candidate himself) will get in his first year of arbitration. Given the fungibility of relief pitching, the Cubs may lock up Marmol for next year and revisit his contract situation next offseason, thus taking the risk of having to pay more in 2012 for a pitcher who is on the cusp of being one of baseball's elite closers. Either that or a combination of the Wilson and Gregg contracts — a two-year, $15MM deal with a team option to buy out Marmol's first free agent year for $10MM.
Odds & Ends: Church, Ortiz, Thome, Beltre
On this date in 1998, the Angels signed Francisco Rodriguez as an international free agent. K-Rod, as he would later be nicknamed, saved 208 games in his dominant seven-year stint with the Angels, striking out 587 batters in 451.2 innings. Now a member of the Mets, Rodriguez is on the disqualified list after a Citi Field altercation led to a season-ending injury and lots of time in court. Here are today's links…
- Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that he may start talking with the team's free agents before they're allowed to start negotiating with other clubs.
- Ryan Church told Andrew Pentis of MLB.com that he’d like to return to the Diamondbacks in 2011. The outfielder is a non-tender candidate after a lackluster season.
- David Ortiz told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he won't feel as comfortable next season if he's not on a multi-year deal. Big Papi has been hinting at an extension for a while, but the Red Sox can simply exercise his $12.5MM option if they'd prefer not to commit to Ortiz beyond 2011.
- Jim Thome told Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he’s planning on playing again in 2011. If the Twins win it all, however, Thome says he would be tempted to retire.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com predicts (on Twitter) that Adrian Beltre will end up with the Angels and Jayson Werth will end up on the Red Sox.
Odds & Ends: Loux, Uribe, Dipoto, Cubs, Phillies
Links for Thursday night, following Juan Uribe's two-homer, six-RBI inning….
- Barret Loux had a second throwing session for scouts today, according to Brian McTaggart and Jeff Seidel of MLB.com. The Astros, Marlins, Rangers, Cubs, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Phillies and Mariners watched the free agent first-round pick throw between 50 and 60 pitches.
- Uribe's 2010 performance should give him a handful of options in free agency this winter, tweets ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff isn't sure that Jerry Dipoto is the right person for the Mets' GM job, even if Dipoto were available.
- Jim Hendry tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that Greg Maddux will remain in the Cubs' organization next year. Upon being hired as Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers suggested that he'd like to put Maddux on the Diamondbacks' payroll. The four-time Cy Young winner is flattered by the interest, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Hendry also conducted his second official interview in his search for the Cubs' next manager, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Ryne Sandberg is the latest candidate to interview with Hendry, after Eric Wedge did so last month.
- MLB.com's Todd Zolecki breaks down some of the key roster moves that have led to the Phillies' NL-best record this year.
Odds & Ends: Cubs, Towers, Phillies, Torre, Lee
Tuesday night links, as Scott Baker makes his first start for the Twins in nearly three weeks….
- Jim Hendry will officially interview Ryne Sandberg for the Cubs' manager job, reports Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago. According to Levine's sources, the club also plans to talk to Pat Listach, Bob Melvin, and Bob Brenly.
- A "reliable source" told Jim Bowden (Twitter link) that the D'Backs are set to offer Kevin Towers their GM job. Jack Magruder of FOX Sports Arizona says no job offer has been made yet, though the team met with Towers again today (Twitter link).
- Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly reports (via Twitter) that the Phillies have signed Franklyn Zavala, a 16-year-old Dominican pitcher, for a $330K bonus.
- Understandably, Joe Torre's comments about the possibility of managing the Mets didn't sit well with current manager Jerry Manuel, as Andy McCullough of the Newark Star-Ledger writes. Torre apologized for his comments, telling Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he's "closing the door on managing the Mets – and probably everybody else" (Twitter links).
- Astros manager Brad Mills avoided the question of whether Carlos Lee would play more first base in 2011, says MLB.com's Pete Kerzel. Alyson Footer, the team's director of social media, notes in a pair of tweets that first base is Lee's strongest position and she'd like to see him there next year.
- Pat Gillick won't rule out taking another general manager job if the right situation arises, writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.
- Craig Counsell tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link) that he'll be back in 2011, either for the Brewers or another club.
Cubs Designate Mitch Atkins For Assignment
The Cubs have designated Mitch Atkins for assignment, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (via Twitter). The DFA was part of a series of moves in Chicago, as the team also placed Tyler Colvin and Geovany Soto on the disabled list.
Atkins, who turns 25 next Friday, appeared in five games for the Cubs this year. The right-hander struck out a batter per inning, but recorded a 6.30 ERA and allowed 18 baserunners in just ten innings pitched. Atkins had more success for Triple-A Iowa, with a 3.63 ERA over 106.2 IP.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Xavier Nady
It's always tough for a player when he hits free agency coming off an injury, but it's even tougher when it's a major injury. That's exactly what happened to Xavier Nady last winter, when he was recovering from his second Tommy John surgery after coming to the plate just 29 times for the Yankees in 2009.
The Cubs rolled the dice and signed Nady to a one-year deal worth $3.3MM in late January, though incentives based on games started and plate appearances have put another $350K in his pocket this season. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency…
The Pros
- After a slow start, Nady has rounded into form down the stretch, hitting .317/.351/.423 in his last 131 plate appearances. Not coincidentally, that hot streak almost directly coincides with the trade of Derrek Lee, which is when Nady took the first base job outright.
- He's now more than a full year away from his surgery and hasn't shown any ill effects.
- Nady is versatile, capable of playing first and both outfield corners regularly, as well as third in an emergency.
- He is not projected to be a Type-A (or even a Type-B) free agent, meaning a team would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Cubs offered him arbitration after the season.
The Cons
- Always known for his ability to mash lefthanded pitching (.298/.369/.455 vs. LHP in his career), Nady has hit just .250/.295/.375 against southpaws this year.
- He's also striking out more than ever, in exactly 27% of his at-bats, and his power numbers are down as well; Nady's .380 slugging percentage is his lowest since 2003.
- He hit just .225/.298/.344 in 171 plate appearances before taking over at first base full-time, perhaps suggesting that he needs regular playing time to remain productive.
- Nady will turn 32-years-old this November, so he's teetering on the edge of his prime and decline phases.
The Verdict
Despite what shaped up to be the worst season of Nady's career, he still has value as a platoon player that won't fall on his face if pressed into full-time duty. It would appear that staying in the NL makes the most sense, but perhaps the more hitter friendly parks of the AL would benefit Nady the most. There's no reason to think he'll be able to find a multi-year deal or get a considerable raise on the open market, so I would expect him to sign for a contract very similar to what he agreed to last winter.
Odds & Ends: Ellsbury, Pirates, Soto, Drew
Links for Sunday, as the Padres, Giants, and Rockies find themselves separated by a single game in the NL West standings….
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears from a pair of Mets officials that the team may make a run at Jacoby Ellsbury this winter.
- GM Neal Huntington discusses the Pirates' nine arbitration-eligible players with Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Geovany Soto will have arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder tomorrow, tweets Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Soto will be looking at a three-month recovery, so he should be fully healthy for spring training.
- J.D. Drew isn't sure what the future holds after his current deal expires, writes WEEI's Rob Bradford. Drew is under contract through 2011 and indicates that he's considering the possibility of retiring after that.
- Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer outlines a few of the Indians' needs, and addresses the possibility of Josh Byrnes joining the team's front office.
Manager Rumors: Riggleman, Blue Jays, Cubs, Manuel
A few manager-related updates….
- Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports that if the Nationals want to buy Jim Riggleman out of his contract, they'll have to do so by the day after the World Series ends. Mike Rizzo, who said earlier this year that Riggleman "will be back next season," suggested that a decision on the club's manager has been made, but not announced.
- ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick says (via Twitter) that Don Wakamatsu, Bob Melvin, and Pat Listach are a few names on the Blue Jays' list of potential Cito Gaston replacements. Crasnick adds that Wakamatsu is also on the Cubs' list.
- On the general manager front, Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse tweets that the Diamondbacks hope to have a GM in place by the time their final homestand begins on Tuesday.
- Charlie Manuel tells MLB.com's Todd Zolecki that he could see himself still managing at 85 years old. Manuel is "only" 66 now, so it's safe to say he's not considering retirement quite yet.
Odds & Ends: Brenly, DeJesus, Lackey, Reds
Some links to peruse before Yovani Gallardo locks up with Tim Lincecum later tonight…
- The Cubs will consider Bob Brenly for their vacant managerial post, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- David DeJesus is waiting to hear from the Royals about their decision on his $6MM option for next season according to Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star. The club has until October 15th to exercise the option, and GM Dayton Moore said he's "not prepared to say what [they're] doing at this point."
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier says that John Lackey hasn't been worth the risk for the Red Sox yet, and he'll have to buck historical trends to be worth the remainder of his five-year, $82.5MM contract.
- Meanwhile, Jim Donaldson of The Providence Journal jokes that the Sox should be able to ask Lackey and Josh Beckett for refunds given how they've pitched after signing their new deals.
- There will be plenty of competition for a spot in the Cubs rotation next season, writes Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune.
- David Barron of The Houston Chronicle looks at how the Reds are thriving thanks to a mix of young players and veterans.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Fusco, Thome, Cubs, Jeter
On this date in 1998, former New York Highlander and St. Louis Brown Red Hoff passed away. At 107 years, four months, and nine days old, the left-handed pitcher had the longest life span of any player in Major League history, out-living his closest competition by more than five years. He pitched to a 2.49 ERA in 83 innings from 1911-1915, but never played after serving in World War I.
Here are a few interesting links from around the blogosphere…
- Phoul Balls interviewed Low-A Greenville manager and former big leaguer Billy McMillon.
- SPANdemonium chatted with Greg Schaum about the Royals' farm system, arguably the best in baseball (well, it's not really all that arguable, it is the best).
- U.S.S. Mariner chimes in on the Carmen Fusco firing in the wake of the Josh Lueke fallout.
- Prospect Insider looks back at the trades Jack Zduriencik made during his first year as Mariners GM.
- Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors examines if Jim Thome was the best signing of the offseason.
- The Few, The Proud, The Braves compares Brian McCann to David Ross.
- SDSports.net wonders if Luis Durango has a future with the Padres.
- Cubs Pack projects Chicago's 2011 payroll.
- Yankeeist asks what kind of contract Derek Jeter will get next season.
- The Nats Blog looks at Adam Dunn's place among the best home run hitters in history.
- The Hardball Times matches up each of the 30 teams with a character from The Simpsons.
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