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AL Central Notes: Indians’ Starters, Fister, Tigers, Sox, Soria

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The Blue Jays, Dodgers and Yankees are among the teams that have reached out to the Indians and had “preliminary” trade talks about Cleveland’s starting pitching, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). The still-very-early frameworks being discussed would each send a controllable starter away from Cleveland in exchange for an everyday outfielder, he continues. In an appearance on MLB Network (video link), Morosi noted that Brett Gardner’s name has come up in talks with Cleveland. Of course, Gardner alone wouldn’t fetch Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar, given the outfielder’s poor second half (though that was said to be injury-driven) and the more general fact that it makes little sense for Cleveland to part ways with five affordable years of either pitcher in exchange for three to four years of a well-compensated veteran. Other young and very well-regarded pieces would be a necessity. Trevor Bauer could be a more intriguing candidate in that scenario, as the soon-to-be 25-year-old was impressive in bursts in 2015 but continued his longstanding battle with control issues for most of the season. Other very speculative fits from the listed clubs could include Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Kevin Pillar, Dalton Pompey and Aaron Judge. Of course, each of those suggestions comes with varying degrees of uncertainty.

Some more notes from the AL Central…

  • The Tigers are among the teams with interest in free-agent right-hander Doug Fister, according to Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). Fister is coming off a poor season in D.C. that saw his velocity dip to about 86 mph, causing him to lose his rotation spot. However, he enjoyed his best seasons in Detroit, and I can envision him being interested in a return on a make-good contract as he looks to rebuild his value, perhaps on a one-year deal in search of a larger contract among next year’s weak crop of free-agent starters.
  • MLB.com’s Jason Beck breaks down the Tigers’ options in their search for a left fielder. As Beck writes, fans should put to bed the notion of Jason Heyward, Justin Upton or a Yoenis Cespedes reunion, as all figure to be out of Detroit’s price range. Avila spoke highly of Tyler Collins recently, Beck notes, lending some credence to the possibility of simply acquiring a platoon partner for the left-handed-hitting 25-year-old. Beck lists Chris Young, former Tigers Ryan Raburn and Rajai Davis as possibilities. However, if the club feels an everyday left fielder would be an upgrade over a platoon of Collins and one of those righty bats, names like Nori Aoki and Gerardo Parra could come into play. Of course, it should be noted that Parra himself could benefit from a platoon partner, though he has a stronger defensive reputation than Collins (his surprising 2015 downturn in the view of defensive metrics not withstanding).
  • White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams told MLB.com’s Scott Merkin that the team hasn’t made a definitive decision as to which direction it will go this offseason (Twitter link). While that will probably induce a large amount of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana trade speculation from fans of pitching-hungry teams, it does seem difficult to envision the White Sox changing course after spending so heavily last winter. Chicago’s core of Sale, Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton and David Robertson is an excellent start to a contending club. Previous reports have indicated that the Sox believe 2015 was just the first of a multi-year window to contend. Nonetheless, that Williams didn’t take the opportunity to firmly denounce the possibility of some retooling is notable.
  • The Twins have reached out to Joakim Soria’s agent and received his medical records for review, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, though it’s not known whether the team is comfortable with a number anywhere near his reported $27MM asking price. (My guess: no.) In other Soria/AL Central news, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweeted today that while the Tigers were interested in Soria as recently as this past weekend, the two sides weren’t on the same page in contract talks. Detroit’s acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez seems likely to have diminished their interest in Soria anyhow.

Free Agent Profile: Jeff Samardzija

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After an offseason trade to the White Sox, Jeff Samardzija struggled through his worst season in four years as a starting pitcher.  He’ll still likely aim for a sizable multiyear contract in free agency.

Strengths/Pros

Samardzija is, first and foremost, a workhorse.  He tossed 647 1/3 regular season innings from 2013-15, sixth-most in baseball.  David Price is the only free agent with more during that span, and he only had eight additional innings.  Samardzija has never been on the disabled list and has never missed a start due to injury.  The 6’5″, 225 lb. righty seems built to last.

Aug 19, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Samardzija has lower mileage on his arm than most of his fellow free agents, mainly because he spent a portion of his big league career as a reliever.  As a 31-year-old with no DL time, Samardzija has still only thrown 1502 pro innings.  Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger than Samardzija, has 1901 innings.  Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir have mileage similar to Gallardo.  Ian Kennedy has 1590 2/3 innings, a total held down by 2009 shoulder surgery.  Jordan Zimmermann and Wei-Yin Chen have lower mileage than Samardzija, but both had Tommy John surgery.  Mike Leake, who recently turned 28, has 1115 career innings.

Samardzija has shown the ability to pitch at the front end of a rotation.  He was his team’s Opening Day starter in each of the past three seasons, and earned an All-Star nod in 2014.  That season, Samardzija posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings.  His 4.7 K/BB ratio ranked 14th among qualified starters.  He also brings the heat.  From 2012-15, Samardzija averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball, second only to Stephen Strasburg among those with 600 innings.

Samardzija turned the corner with his control in 2014, walking only 1.8 batters per nine innings.  His 1.9 mark from 2014-15 ranks 15th among qualified starters, and many of those ranked above him are soft-tossers.  From 2012-14, Samardzija showed an elite combination of skills and durability, ranking eighth in MLB with a 3.35 SIERA for those with 600 or more innings.  During those three years, Samardzija was firmly operating in Jordan Zimmermann/Jon Lester territory.  That valuation was borne out when Samardzija (along with Jason Hammel) netted the Cubs Addison Russell and Billy McKinney in a trade with the Athletics.

Weaknesses/Cons

There’s no tiptoeing around the fact that 2015 was a very rough season for Samardzija.  He allowed the most hits and earned runs of any MLB starter, and he tied for the most home runs allowed in the AL.  In his four seasons as a starter, his 6.9 K/9 was easily a career worst, as were his 4.96 ERA, 1.22 HR/9, and 39% groundball rate.  In his 32 starts, he allowed five or more earned runs in 11 of them.  Samardzija had a stretch in August where he gave up 22 earned runs in three starts.  Zack Greinke didn’t give up his 22nd earned run until his 21st start of the season.  A childhood fan of the White Sox, Samardzija’s season on the south side of Chicago did not go as planned.

In four seasons as a starter, Samardzija has posted a 4.03 ERA over 822 innings, and his only campaign below 3.81 was 2014.  In each of the 2012, ’13, and ’15 seasons, Samardzija’s SIERA was significantly below his ERA.  What has caused the big righty to post higher-than-expected ERAs in three out of his four seasons as a starter?  Batting average on balls in play, home run per flyball rate, and issues pitching out of the stretch have all manifested in those three seasons, but none consistently.  His All-Star season, 2014, was the only one where all three of those factors were normal.  I asked SIERA creator Matt Swartz about this, and he concluded, “You have to figure he’s more likely to underperform his SIERA than the average pitcher, but nothing jumps out as a persistent problem.”

With the White Sox, Samardzija reduced the usage of his two-seam fastball in favor of the cutter, perhaps unsurprisingly.  That pitch change mix supports the narrative that Samardzija can be fixed.  On the other hand, why couldn’t Samardzija right the ship during the 2015 season?

Samardzija received and turned down a qualifying offer from the White Sox, so signing him requires draft pick forfeiture.  Teams with unprotected picks in the teens such as the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Orioles could shy away.

Personal

Jeff Samardzija was born and raised in Merrillville, a town in Northwest Indiana.  Inspired by his older brother Sam, Jeff played football, baseball, and basketball at Valparaiso High School.  Tragically, Jeff lost his mother Debora during that time to a rare lung disease.  With his father and brother in mind, Jeff looked at colleges close to home and landed a football scholarship to Notre Dame.  Jeff was a star wide receiver for the Irish, but quietly pitched for the college’s baseball team as well.  A baseball teammate noted Jeff resembled the shark from Finding Nemo, giving him a nickname that stuck.  Since most teams thought he was destined for the NFL, Samardzija fell to the fifth round in the MLB draft in 2006.  Cubs GM Jim Hendry was a good friend of Samardzija’s baseball coach Paul Mainieri, who urged Hendry to draft the greatest athlete he’d ever coached.  Jeff agreed to a $250K deal with the Cubs, provided he could return to Notre Dame for his senior season.

After making seven appearances for Cubs minor league affiliates in Boise and Peoria, Samardzija had to decide whether to commit to the Cubs or enter the 2007 NFL draft as a potential first-round pick.  Samardzija surprised the Cubs by working out a five-year, $10MM deal to commit to baseball.  Samardzija ascended through the Cubs’ minor league system more because of his contract than due to success.  As an up-and-down reliever, Samardzija briefly kicked around a return to football in April 2010.  However, he had a decent year out of the Cubs’ pen in 2011, and then Theo Epstein’s regime took over the team’s front office.  Samardzija removed his distractions that offseason and told Epstein he wanted to be a starting pitcher.  He was awarded the Cubs’ fifth starter job out of camp in 2012, and his MLB career took off.

Market

We see Samardzija in a tier with Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake, a notch below David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto.  Comparing Samardzija’s contract with Chen’s will offer an interesting data point on whether teams are really moving past ERA.  ERA makes Chen look better than Samardzija, yet Samardzija has a better reputation with the team executives to whom we’ve spoken, as well as superior skill-based stats.  For some teams, Samardzija offers a chance at a #2 type starter coming off a down year, resulting in a potential bargain.  Samardzija is an innings guy at worst, with the same high floor as Leake.  Leake, however, doesn’t offer the same ceiling.

Though the draft pick loss will be an issue for some, a potential list of suitors for Samardzija includes the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, and Giants.  He could be a top choice for a team like the Tigers, who intend to add multiple starters and therefore may sit out the $100MM+ market.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry currently works for the Yankees (at least for now), so there’s an obvious connection with Shark.

Expected Contract

In June 2014, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reported Samardzija rejected a five-year extension offer from the Cubs worth slightly more than $85MM.  A few months prior, Homer Bailey had signed an extension with the Reds for six years and $105MM, and that comparable may have compelled Samardzija to turn down the Cubs.  The Cubs’ argument may have been that Bailey was younger than Samardzija, and that’s why he received a sixth year.  That same question still exists: is there a team willing to sign Samardzija through 2020, his age 35 season?  Given the list of teams above, as well as the pitcher’s durability, I think there will be enough suitors for Samardzija and his agents at Wasserman Media Group to get a fifth year on the open market.  A slightly lower average annual value could bolster that case – Samardzija may cost $16-17MM per year, as opposed to $20MM+ salaries for guys like Rick Porcello and, presumably, Zimmermann.  I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM deal for Samardzija.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Trade

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Here are a few notes on the Red Sox’ acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Padres last night for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.

  • The trade is likely to represent the Red Sox’ biggest trade of the offseason, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says (via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox still need a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they’re likely to pursue that kind of player via the free agent market, Dombrowski tells reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “My thought process is most likely any acquisition we’d make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned,” Dombrowski. “You never know, but that would be my guess.” Lauber does note that the team has spoken with executives from other teams about potential trade acquisitions, but the Athletics don’t seem inclined to trade Sonny Gray, and ditto with the White Sox and Chris Sale. That could mean the Red Sox sign David Price, Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.
  • The Red Sox’ decision to deal four good prospects for Kimbrel suggests a change in the team’s approach, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Former GM Ben Cherington built up talent in the Sox’ farm system but would probably have been reluctant to make such an aggressive trade. The Red Sox pursuing top free agent pitchers like Price, too, would have been unlikely under Cherington.
  • Trading so many prospects so early in his tenure represents a risk for Dombrowski, MacPherson writes. MacPherson cites Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was new in town a few years back when his team sent a package that included DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for infielder Ian Stewart. “Those kind of mistakes happen when a regime comes in and they don’t know the guys as well,” says Hoyer. “They’re relying more on internal evaluations and scouting reports, third-hand information. Anytime you go to a new organization, those are your risks — and there are risks of being inactive because you’re worried about making mistakes, too.”
  • The Kimbrel deal was exactly the kind of trade Dombrowski was hired to make, writes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham notes that many commentators (like FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and ESPN Insider’s Keith Law, for example) disliked the trade from the Red Sox’ perspective, but after two straight losing seasons, the Sox have tickets to sell, and Kimbrel will help sell them. For the Red Sox, prospects like Margot and Guerra were best viewed as trade chips.

Heyman’s Latest: Offseason Spending, CarGo, Pirates, Kennedy, Gallardo

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In his latest notes column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by classifying the Angels, Giants, Tigers, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers as the expected “big spenders” of the offseason, breaking down some targets that each club could pursue. Heyman goes on to call the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, D-Backs, Mets, Royals and Padres as “medium spenders,” noting that each has needs and could make one significant addition or a series of mid-range moves in order to address multiple areas around the roster. As he did with the big-spending clubs, Heyman examines a few plausible scenarios for each, noting that the Royals are still in the three- or four-year range on Alex Gordon, thereby casting some doubt on a potential reunion.

A few highlights from his column…

  • While Andrelton Simmons’ name has been a hot topic over the past 15 hours or so, there’s a “good chance” that the Braves will make Julio Teheran available at some point this winter. Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons at the moment, I wouldn’t think, due to a down year for Teheran in 2015. Moving him would be selling low, which makes it more difficult to envision a deal, from my vantage point.
  • The White Sox were one of “many teams” to which agent Brodie Van Wagenen made a presentation regarding Yoenis Cespedes, though the greater needs for the ChiSox come at catcher, third base, second base and shortstop.
  • The Rockies have again made Carlos Gonzalez available in trades, as many expected would be the case following the summer trade of Troy Tulowitzki. CarGo dominated the National League from June through season’s end after struggling with injuries in 2014 and early 2015 and undoubtedly restored an exceptional amount of trade value. Heyman speculatively listed the Orioles as a potential match when discussing Baltimore in his intro section.
  • Pittsburgh has fielded offers on all seven of its players that are a year removed from free agency. That includes Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, Mike Morse, Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli. However, the Pirates are also said to be considering an attempt at locking Cervelli up on a multi-year deal.
  • Ian Kennedy is planning to decline the Padres’ qualifying offer, per Heyman. Both Tim Dierkes and I have noted that there’s little sense in Kennedy accepting the offer. The right-hander is fourth in innings pitched in the NL over the past five seasons and has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time while posting a 3.89 ERA, 3.87 FIP and 3.78 xFIP. Homer struggles in 2015 aside, Kennedy finished strong and should get paid somewhere. It’s hard to envision a Scott Boras client being the first to accept a qualifying offer, and if all else fails, Kennedy can go the Ervin Santana route and sign a one-year deal near the value of the QO late in the offseason.
  • Similarly, Yovani Gallardo plans to turn down the Rangers’ QO. Heyman hears he’s expected to sign elsewhere despite being a Fort Worth area native. The Rangers will again attempt to re-sign Colby Lewis, he adds.

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/4/15

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Some minor signings and outrights from around the game…

  • The Athletics announced yesterday that catcher Carson Blair has been outrighted to Triple-A Nashville. Blair, who turned 26 after the season ended, made his big league debut with Oakland in 2015 and collected four hits in 31 at-bats over the course of 11 contests. The former Red Sox farmhand has a brilliant track record at the Double-A level but reached Triple-A for the first time this year and struggled there in addition to in the Majors. Blair is eligible for minor league free agency.
  • The Padres have outrighted first baseman Cody Decker off the club’s 40-man roster, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (on Twitter). The 28-year-old went 0-for-11 in his Major League debut this past season but has a solid track record of hitting for power at the Triple-A level, as evidenced by his lifetime .257/.336/.501 batting line at the minor leagues’ top level.
  • Baseball America’ Matt Eddy reported this week (via Twitter) that veteran catcher Brett Hayes has signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks, while utility man Steve Lombardozzi has latched on with the White Sox on a minors pact as well. The 31-year-old Hayes displayed good pop with the Indians in a limited sample this past season and is a lifetime .205/.250/.359 hitter in 464 big league plate appearances. Lombardozzi, 27, has spent most of his career with the Nationals and owns a .263/.294/.336 triple-slash in the Majors. Most of his time has come at second base, but he’s also played a fair bit of left field and has limited experience at third base in the Majors as well.

White Sox Decline Option On Alexei Ramirez

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The White Sox have declined their $10MM club option on shortstop Alexei Ramirez, the team announced. Instead, Chicago will pay him a $1MM buyout.

Ramirez represented one of the most difficult option decisions in this year’s market. The 34-year-old veteran has been a solid contributor for years in Chicago, and the organization has needs all over its infield. Now, Chicago figures to be in the market for a shortstop to help bridge the gap to top prospect Tim Anderson.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club, Ramirez may not be worth the $9MM spread between his value and the option price, but he could earn something close to it as a free agent. He’s coming off of a disappointing, .249/.285/.357 season, with declining defensive metrics. But he had been a consistent two-to-four WAR performer for many seasons before (even while generally carrying slightly below-average batting lines).

Teams looking for additions at short can now consider Ramirez alongside the rest of a market that isn’t exactly bursting with sure things. Ian Desmond will no doubt draw the most interest, with Asdrubal Cabrera also a reasonably young option. Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins figure to be the most appealing options among the older players available.

Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes

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Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

  • Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
  • There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
  • The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
  • The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
  • The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.

Hector Noesi Likely To Sign With Korean Team

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Righty Hector Noesi appears likely to sign with the KIA Tigers in Korea, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. The 28-year-old Noesi is an ACES client.

Noesi posted a 6.89 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 32 2/3 innings with the White Sox in 2015 before being outrighted, after which he had more success with Triple-A Charlotte. In 2014, though, he was a regular in the White Sox’ rotation, pitching 166 innings with a 4.77 ERA. In addition to the White Sox, Noesi has pitched with the Yankees, Mariners and Rangers in his five-year big-league career, posting a 5.30 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 395 1/3 innings. As a fly ball pitcher, he gives up more than his fair share of homers, thus far preventing him from being more than a passable fifth starter in the big leagues.

East Notes: Anthopoulos, Nats, Desmond, Montero, Cespedes, Gordon

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Blue Jays ownership is to blame for the team’s surprising separation with former GM Alex Anthopoulos, argues Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star. New president Mark Shapiro “said he strongly disagreed with some of the deadline choices that sent prospects out,” Arthur reports, and indications are that he took the job in part because he is interested in increasing his involvement in personnel decisions. (The club made several swaps, most notable shipping out young pitching talent to acquire David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.) Rogers Communications, the club’s ownership group, initially offered Anthopoulos only a one-year contract with an option, says Arthur, and though the offer ultimately was bumped to a five-year term, that seemingly set the stage for the departure of Anthopoulos. Meanwhile, the new free agent executive took a conciliatory tack on his way out, saying, “I just didn’t feel like this was the right fit for me going forward.”

Here’s more from Toronto and some other eastern division clubs:

  • Writing for the National Post, Andrew Stoeten takes rather a different perspective on the Blue Jays’ front office changes. He suggests that it’s a valid criticism that Anthopoulos gave up too much young talent over the summer, even if the immediate results were good. More broadly, there’s no reason in particular to think Anthopoulos is uniquely irreplaceable, Stoeten argues.
  • Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post takes a look at an interesting offseason for the Nationals. As he explains, the club could probably just add some bullpen pieces and a left-handed-hitting, center field-capable fourth outfielder and call it a day. That wouldn’t be perfect, but it should be workable enough, and it may be what the team had hoped and expected to be looking at heading into 2015. But a terribly disappointing campaign changes the equation somewhat. Svrluga says that the organization has pegged a $175MM overall annual operations budget, a number which includes player salaries but would also include additional spending in other areas (he cites various front office upgrades, though presumably it might also involve international spending or other speculative investments). With various big-money players are coming off of the books, Svrluga argues at least some of their salaries ought to be reallocated to new acquisitions. Upgrading over Wilson Ramos at catcher should be considered, he argues, and the team must decide whether to trade Yunel Escobar (possibly for bullpen help) and how much trust to put in Michael Taylor.
  • Outgoing Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond figures to draw strong interest from the Mets, people around the game are telling Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (as part of a broader notes column). Heyman says he’s expecting a “robust” market for Desmond after a late-season return to form, and also notes the Mariners, Padres, White Sox, and Twins as plausible landing spots.
  • It’s easy to forget about righty Rafael Montero given the success of the Mets’ other arms, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the team hasn’t. New York expects Montero to be ready to go this spring after dealing with shoulder issues all year, and Sherman notes that he’ll at least represent a solid depth piece in the near-term if he can stay healthy. Of course, with Zack Wheeler also set to return next summer and Steven Matz now looking like he’ll command a rotation spot for years to come, Montero could ultimately factor as a trade chip.
  • Sherman also takes a crack at assessing the in-season changes to the future free agent market of Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The Red Sox offered him a five-year deal at about $75MM when he was with the club, says Sherman, and might have considered going to the Hunter Pence range (5/$90MM). Now, says Sherman, Cespedes’s future valuation has swung wildly. Before his mid-season swap to New York, he says, Cespedes was generally expected to receive a deal that might not have reached $100MM. The outfielder pushed his ceiling to the six-year, $150MM range after a blistering couple of months, per Sherman, but now some executives feel a tepid few weeks could drop him shy of nine figures. For what it’s worth, my own take is that Cespedes’s earning capacity has probably not moved quite so violently; while it’s obviously shifted, I’d have pegged him at a higher mid-season expectation and still believe he’ll easily clear the $100MM barrier this offseason.
  • The Red Sox could be a surprise contender to add outfielder Alex Gordon via free agency, Sherman writes. While Boston could move forward with its internal options in the outfield, rival executives see a scenario where the team tries to utilize the resurgent Jackie Bradley Jr. as a trade piece to add a pitcher while simultaneously locking up Gordon. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe analyzes the concept, explaining that Fenway Park has seemed uniquely capable of undermining otherwise strong defenders’ abilities in left field. As Sherman suggests, Gordon could be added with the idea of deploying him in right, and Speier does add that Castillo looked good in limited action in left, so there’s some hypothetical plausibility but also some tough questions to be answered before pursuing that strategy.
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