Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer
In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.
Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.
It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.
Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.
As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.
That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.
Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers
Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:
- Trevor Bauer, Reds RHP
- Kevin Gausman, Giants RHP (story)
- DJ LeMahieu, Yankees 2B
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies C
- George Springer, Astros OF
- Marcus Stroman, Mets RHP (story)
None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.
More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.
The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.
Nick Castellanos Doesn’t Opt Out Of Reds Contract
Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos did not tell the team that he will be exercising the opt-out clause in his contract, according to multiple reporters. As such, Castellanos will remain in Cincinnati for at least one more season, before facing another opt-out decision following the 2021 campaign.
Castellanos signed a four-year, $64MM deal with the Reds last winter, and his original $16MM salary for 2020 was prorated down to roughly $5.925MM as a result of the shortened season. He is scheduled to make $14MM in 2021 and then $16MM in both 2022 and 2023, and the Reds have a $20MM mutual option on his services for the 2024 season that can be bought out for $2MM.
There wasn’t much doubt that Castellanos would pass on his opt-out opportunity, as the offseason marketplace figures to be a tight one for all but the uppermost tier of free agents. It would have been very unlikely that Castellanos would have been able to top the three years and $48MM he has left in his Cincinnati contract, particularly because Castellanos produced average numbers (particularly by his standards) in 2020.
It was very much a tale of two seasons for the 28-year-old, as Castellanos hit a scorching .272/.352/.691 over his first 91 plate appearances in a Reds uniform, but then only .197/.265/.365 over his final 151 PA. The end result was a 102 wRC+ and OPS+ for Castellanos, his lowest total in either metric in the last five seasons.
If Castellanos rebounds in 2021 and league-wide revenues are at least somewhat back to normal, he could explore using his opt-out clause in a year’s time. 2022 would be Castellanos’ age-30 season so time would still somewhat be on his side, and finding more than two years/$34MM could be feasible if he has another big offensive season under his belt. Castellanos’ future market would also be helped if the National League has adopted the DH by then, as his right field defense continues to be below average.
Reds Outright Joel Kuhnel
The Reds announced Monday that right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared waivers been assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville. Between Kuhnel’s outright and the Mets’ claim of Robel Garcia, the Reds have opened a pair of spots on the 40-man roster.
Kuhnel, 25, has pitched 12 2/3 innings with Cincinnati over the past two seasons, working to a combined 4.97 ERA with a 12-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in that limited sample. He averaged better than 96 mph on his heater in 2019 with a swinging-strike of 14.5 percent, though both those marks were down in 2020 — albeit in a minuscule sample of three innings (95.4 mph; 3.5 percent).
Kuhnel, an 11th-round pick by the Reds in 2016, obviously didn’t pitch much in a game setting this year thanks to the absence of a minor league season. His last extended minor league work came in 2019, when he notched a tidy 2.18 ERA with a 50-to-16 K/BB ratio in 53 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A.
Mets Claim Robel Garcia, Designate Ryan Cordell
The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed infielder Robel Garcia off waivers from the Reds. Outfielder Ryan Cordell was designated for assignment to create space on the Mets’ roster.
Garcia, 27, made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2019 after after a highly unusual path to The Show. The former Indians farmhand was out of affiliated ball from 2014-18 before the Cubs caught a look at him playing for a professional team in Italy. They brought him in on a minor league pact, and Garcia showed off light-tower power at Triple-A in 2019 — 21 homers in 296 plate appearances — before being called up.
The Cubs gave Garcia 80 plate appearances in 2019, and he responded with a tepid .208 average and .275 on-base percentage, but he still slugged .500 thanks to five homers, two doubles and two triples in that short time. Garcia also punched out in 35 of those 80 plate appearances, so while the raw power he possesses is plain to see, there’s some obvious work to be done on his approach at the plate.
Defensively, Garcia saw time at all four infield positions and both outfield corners during his stint with the Cubs organization, although he was primarily a second baseman and third baseman in the minors. He didn’t appear in the Majors this past season and would seem like a long shot to open next year on the Mets’ roster, if he survives the winter on their 40-man roster. He’s only been optioned in two different seasons, though, so he should have one minor league option remaining next year.
Cordell, 28, joined the Mets as a minor league free agent last offseason and tallied just eight plate appearances in five games with them this year. He was once a well-regarded prospect but has turned in a lackluster .202/.263/.328 batting line through 295 career trips to the plate with the White Sox and Mets. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has a lifetime .266/.323/.451 batting line in Triple-A.
Quick Hits: Bauer, Angels, Hill
The Rays are changing it up tonight in an effort to even up the World Series with the Dodgers, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). Against the southpaw Julio Urías, the Rays have dropped Brandon Lowe to the 5-spot, while lefty killer Mike Brosseau gets the start at third base batting third. Hunter Renfroe gets the start in right field in place of Austin Meadows. The Rays tend to play match-ups against lefties, but don’t be surprised to see Ji-Man Choi or Meadows come in off the bench late in the game. While we wait for first pitch, let’s see what else is going on around the game…
- Trevor Bauer had more fun playing baseball with the Reds this season than in any of his prior professional campaigns, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosencrans. That bodes well for a return to Cincinnati for the free agent hurler, though the financial component will still have to be figured out by new head baseball decision-maker Nick Krall. Projecting free agent contracts has never been a murkier business than this season following widespread revenue loss around baseball. Bauer figures to be a rare free agent not to have his market diminished all that much, not after a Cy Young worthy campaign.
- The Angels will consider ex-Marlins executive Michael Hill to fill their General Manager vacancy, per MLB Network contributor Craig Mish (via Twitter). By all accounts, Hill’s departure from Miami stemmed from a salary disagreement, which would not be out of character for the cost conscious Marlins. Hill had been with the Marlins in one capacity or another since 2002. The Angels would represent a starkly different challenge for Hill, who has spent years managing slow-burn rebuilds in Miami. Whoever takes over baseball ops in Los Angeles will be pressured to get the team back to the playoffs as soon as possible, lest another year of Mike Trout‘s prime pass by without postseason play.
Reds Announce Nick Krall As Head Of Baseball Ops Department
The Cincinnati Reds officially announced Nick Krall as the head of their baseball operations department. Krall is the current VP and General Manager, but he now steps up to assume the duties as the Reds’ top baseball decision-maker.
Per the team release, the Reds wrote: “We are excited for Nick to assume the lead over our baseball operations. His hands-on approach as General Manager gives us the opportunity to reinstate that role as the top position in our baseball department and keep the years of hard work that happened under his purview producing stronger, more competitive teams.”
Previous Team President Dick Williams stepped down earlier this month to take on greater responsibility in his family business. Installing Krall in the top spot on the org chart maintains a strong sense of continuity, despite Williams’ departure. Krall and Williams worked together for 15 years in the Reds’ front office. Krall has been the GM for the past 3 seasons, helping to lead the charge in building a roster that returned the Reds to the postseason this year.
The Reds have a fair amount of money committed to their 2021 roster with Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Nicholas Castellanos, and Eugenio Suarez accounting for almost $64MM in 2021 payroll. The impending free agency of Trevor Bauer will be the first significant decision for the Reds under Krall’s leadership. Bauer went 5-4 with a 1.73 ERA/2.88 FIP to take home the NL ERA crown in 2020.
NL Notes: Kemp, Reds, Susana, Mets, Dodgers
Matt Kemp stated last February that he was hoping to add four or five more seasons onto his career, and with the 2020 campaign and Kemp’s 15th MLB season now in the books, nothing has changed about his future plans. “That’s always been one of my goals, is to at least play until I was 40 years old,” Kemp said in an interview on the Power Alley show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM. Kemp is still focused on capturing that elusive World Series ring, and “as long as I can continue to help a team win and do some great things in the game of baseball, I’m going to continue to do this thing until I can’t do it any more.”
The 36-year-old Kemp was an All-Star as recently as 2018, though he endured an injury-shortened 2019 season that led to minor league deals in 2020 with both the Marlins and Rockies, the latter coming in June. Kemp hit .239/.326/.419 with six homers over 132 plate appearances for Colorado, working primarily as a DH and pinch-hitter and only playing left field in one of his 43 games. It remains to be seen if the Rockies or another team will give Kemp another chance at extending his career, though his prospects at another contract would definitely get a boost if the National League fully adopts the designated hitter.
More from around the NL…
- Shortstop was a big problem area for the Reds last season, and since Jose Garcia struggled badly during over 68 PA in his rookie season, he looks to still be a season or two away from being a big league contributor. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription required) looks at some of the possibilities available to the Reds on the offseason shortstop market, though it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will have the payroll flexibility to pursue top free agents like Didi Gregorius or Marcus Semien. Rosecrans also notes that the Reds have also scouted Ha-Seong Kim of the Korea Baseball Organization, who wouldn’t necessarily carry quite as large a price tag, though several teams are expected to check into Kim’s services when he is posted.
- Speaking of international talent, Dominican right-hander Jarlin Susana is an intriguing (and unattached) prospect heading into the January 15 international signing period. Baseball America’s Ben Badler has more on the 16-year-old Susana, who is 6’5″, 195 pounds, and hit 96mph during a showcase for scouts earlier this week. Susana also has “a sharp breaking ball” along with that fastball, which usually clocks in the “the low-to-mid 90s.” Many of the top prospects in the 2020-21 international class have already unofficially agreed to deals with teams, though Susana isn’t yet linked to anyone, making him an interesting option for clubs with available bonus pool space. The Mets and Dodgers were among the teams who had evaluators in attendance at Susana’s showcase.
Reds Outright Four To Triple-A
The Reds outrighted four players to Triple-A on Wednesday, the team announced. Jesse Biddle, Matt Bowman, Matt Davidson, and Travis Jankowski all cleared waivers. Bowman had been on the 45-day IL, but not on the 40-man, so the Reds 40-man roster now has three open spots.
Bowman is a 29-year-old right-hander originally claimed off waivers from the Cardinals after the 2018 season. He made 27 appearances out of the bullpen for the Reds in 2019, pitching to a 3.66 ERA/3.68 FIP across 32 innings with 7.0 K/9 to 3.7 BB/9. The Maryland native unfortunately underwent Tommy John surgery on September 1st, making the 2022 season the earliest he is likely to return to action.
Biddle was the 27th overall pick of the 2010 draft by the Phillies, though he never appeared with Philadelphia in the big leagues. He has seen big-league action for the Braves, Mariners, Rangers, and Reds, making one outing with Cincinnati in 2020 before being sidelined with shoulder discomfort. The 28-year-old owns a 4.68 career ERA in 92 1/3 innings across 91 appearances.
Jankowski came to the Reds from the Padres for international slot money after the 2019 season. The southpaw-swinging outfielder went just 1-for-15 at the plate, appearing 7 times as a pinch-runner, and contributing 49 1/3 innings of outfield defense for the 2020 Reds. The 29-year-old owns a career triple slash of .238/.315/.313 in 350 career games.
The 29-year-old Davidson surprisingly appeared in 20 games for the Reds in 2020 after spending all of 2019 with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate. This marked his second return to the bigs after a somewhat prolonged absence, previously returning to the Show in 2016 with the White Sox after making his debut in 2013 with the Diamondbacks. Davidson has been attempting life as a two-way player, and he did make 3 pitching appearances for the Reds, though most of his usage came as a DH or pinch-hitter. He slashed .163/.234/.395 across 47 plate appearances with 3 home runs. On the mound, he gave up 2 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work.
Trevor Bauer: A Top Free Agent Like We’ve Never Seen Before
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, the upcoming offseason looks as if it will feature one of the most unique free agents in the history of baseball. Reds ace Trevor Bauer is due to reach the open market off what could be a National League Cy Young-winning season, but very few people know how he will approach his trip to free agency.
The outspoken, offbeat Bauer has mentioned in the past that he would willing to take one-year contracts throughout his career, which would be an odd turn of events for someone who should have the most earning power of all upcoming free agents. Still, based on what he said, Bauer could go that route. On the other hand, Bauer stated in September that he is “not afraid of the longer deals,” meaning it’s anyone’s guess which path the 29-year-old right-hander will choose. Indeed, Bauer added to that earlier this month when he tweeted, “I will consider all offers.”
Notably, Bauer has acknowledged plenty of teams via his Twitter page since the Reds’ playoff season ended Oct. 1. He seems willing to re-up with the Reds, who now-former president of baseball operations Dick Williams said will do all they can to retain Bauer. It’s unclear whether that’s realistic for Cincinnati, which doesn’t boast a big-market budget. Otherwise, Bauer has mentioned the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Braves, Blue Jays, Angels, Orioles and Astros on his Twitter account over the past couple weeks.
It’s probably fair to rule out the Orioles, as they’re rebuilding and Bauer has made it clear winning is a top priority. The Astros are perennial contenders, meanwhile, but there’s no love lost between Bauer and the organization. Remember, Bauer has taken several jabs at the Astros over the years, even calling them “hypocrites” and “cheaters” as recently as last offseason.
Conversely, the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees – three high-spending teams – look as if they’ll be active in the Bauer race. A native of North Hollywood, Bauer has made it no secret in the past that he’d like to suit up for the Dodgers.
“I look forward to playing for the Dodgers one day. I grew up out in Valencia, so I would love to come home,” he said (via dodgerblue.com).
While Bauer may be a luxury for a Dodgers club that’s flush with pitching, a big-money, short-term deal may nonetheless be up the club’s alley. The nearby Angels and the Yankees have more acute needs in their rotations, meanwhile, as well as the spending power to reel in Bauer. In theory, the presence of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole – whom they signed for a record nine years and $324MM just an offseason ago – could negatively affect a Bauer chase. After all, Bauer and Cole have not gotten along since their days as teammates at UCLA, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today explained back in May 2018.
“They are opposites, just such complete opposites,” former UCLA assistant Rick Vanderhook told Nightengale, who noted that Bauer is the more analytical of the two.
Despite their differences, though, Bauer has recently implied he’d consider an offer from the Yankees. He even complimented Cole after he threw a gem on short rest in the Yankees’ Game 5, season-ending loss in the ALDS against the Rays last Friday.
“Anyone who is willing to come out on short rest to put his team on his back and try and win a must win playoff game has my respect,” Bauer tweeted. “Great performance tonight.”
While that doesn’t mean he and Cole are about to become best friends, it is notable as Bauer’s free agency approaches. He’s clearly leaving most or all options on the table, though it does seem contenders that would enable Bauer to pitch on four days of rest stand the greatest chance of landing him. It remains to be seen which club will wind up as the best fit in Bauer’s mind, or whether he’ll take a short- or long-term offer, but his decision could be the most fascinating of the offseason.