NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Moose, Reds, Montgomery
Though the Cardinals have a deep mix of rotation candidates, Bernie Miklasz of The Athletic explores the uncertainty surrounding many of those arms in a call for the St. Louis organization to pursue free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel (subscription required). The Cards can’t know what to expect from Adam Wainwright, Miklasz writes, and the recent shoulder troubles for Carlos Martinez have raised some questions as well. Michael Wacha, too, has had his share of injuries in recent seasons and made only 15 starts in 2018. And while ballyhooed prospect Alex Reyes has a sky-high ceiling, he’s pitched just four innings across the past two seasons (27 frames, including the minors) and will obviously be limited in ’19 as a result. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas each have just one season of MLB success under their belt, and the depth options for the rotation are even less established.
Furthermore, each of Mikolas, Wacha and Wainwright are free agents next winter, creating some potential needs down the line. Miklasz does write, however, that the Cardinals are “confident” of reaching an extension with Mikolas. Both sides expressed interest in such a deal late last month.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Mike Moustakas met with reporters upon his arrival at Brewers camp this week to discuss his offseason and his new position: second base (video link courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). “It’s going to be fun,” said Moustakas of playing second base. “Obviously, it’s going to be new. I’ve been over there a couple of times in the shift, so it’s kind of comfortable at this point. … Me and Counsell talked about — even last year, we talked about it when I got traded over.” Moustakas had no gripes about being asked to make the switch even though last season it was Travis Shaw who slid to second base. Rather, he touted Shaw’s “phenomenal” glove at the hot corner and voiced trust in the Brewers’ data/analytics department to help position him for success at his new spot on the diamond. There are, of course, some other intricacies to handle, though Moustakas noted that the middle infield isn’t totally foreign to him, considering he was drafted as a shortstop (and logged 561 innings there in the low minors from 2007-08). “…That double play is something we’re going to have work on and get used to, and cutoffs, relays — being in the right position. I’ll get the hang of it.”
- Because the Reds have yet to add a true center field option to the roster, Scott Schebler is among the top options to break camp in that role, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The 28-year-old does have a nominal amount of experience at the position, having logged a combined 358 innings there across the past three seasons. “I’m interested to see him in center,” rookie manager David Bell said to Sheldon. “Everyone I’ve talked to that has seen him, people are confident that he can do it. I am, too, but it’ll be a good opportunity to see him out there. I’m convinced he can be really good in left and right.” Schebler will have some competition for the center field gig in the form of Yasiel Puig and top prospect Nick Senzel, though Senzel played in only 44 games last season due to a fractured finger and vertigo symptoms; he was also forced to sit out the Arizona Fall League after undergoing elbow surgery.
- Cole Hamels‘ return to the Cubs all but eliminated Mike Montgomery‘s chances of opening the season in the team’s rotation, but Montgomery nonetheless tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he was “rooting” for the team to retain Hamels. Montgomery will return to a role with which he’s quite familiar — one that requires him to be ready to start, pitch in high-leverage spots late in games and also to enter in multi-inning stints as needed. “Be a guy that can start 20 games or close 20 games, because it has to be [that way],” said Montgomery. As Bastian notes, Montgomery not only started 19 games in Chicago last season, he also entered the game in eight different innings as a reliever and pitched multiple innings of relief on seven occasions. The versatile lefty is controlled through the 2021 season and will earn $2.44MM in 2019 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player.
No Agreement Between Reds, Robbie Ross
Feb. 19: A source tells MLBTR that there is no current agreement between the Reds and Ross. While the two sides have talked, Ross is continuing to throw for other clubs as he seeks a landing spot for the 2019 campaign.
Feb. 16: The Reds have reportedly signed reliever Robbie Ross to a minor league deal.
Ross, 29, held down a regular spot in the Ranger and Red Sox bullpens from 2012-16, but has missed much of the last two seasons with elbow and back problems. In 2016, his last full season of work, Ross turned in an excellent 3.25 ERA/3.27 FIP (0.7 fWAR) on the back of career-best (9.11 K/9, 0.33 HR/9) peripherals. The lefty’s slider, always a cut above, checked in as the 9th best version of the pitch among all qualified relievers that year, per FanGraphs.
Though his bat-missing acumen against opposite-side hitters has largely prevented a breakaway from the journeyman pack, Ross still sports a respectable .319 career wOBA against vs. righties, and shouldn’t be confined to a specialist-only role. The veteran will hope to regain the 2.4 MPH he lost (down to a career-low 91.8 average MPH) on his fastball after injuries took hold.
Ross will look to join an in-flux Reds bullpen spearheaded by a dominant Raisel Iglesias and otherwise peppered with mostly-fungible names. Zach Duke and Amir Garrett carry the unit’s southpaw flag at current, though a pain-free Ross may well squeeze himself in.
Scooter Gennett Frustrated By Lack Of Extension Talks
Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett expressed frustration today with the lack of engagement by the organization regarding a long-term contract, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Saying that his side has “opened it up” in search of a dialogue this winter, Gennett says he has “heard absolutely nothing.” Previously, he and the club worked out a $9.775MM deal to cover his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a hefty sum, to be sure, but did fall shy of the $10.7MM that MLBTR projected.
Gennett made clear that his primary frustration isn’t the lack of a long-term deal so much as it is the club’s communication on the matter. “What I don’t like is when you’re told we’re going to have a talk and it doesn’t happen,” he said. GM Nick Krall declined to comment, citing club policy.
In the middle of the 2018 campaign, Gennett said he had reason to believe there was serious interest from the club in an extension. Things seemingly shifted this winter, though, for the Cincinnati native. President of baseball operations Dick Williams cast doubt on the possibility of a deal and Gennett even briefly popped up in trade rumors.
There’s still time for a change of course in camp, but there’s clearly no momentum toward an agreement at present. Gennett says he’s fine with the current arrangement from a financial perspective — “I’m only going to make more money going year-to-year than if I signed a long-term deal” — but would like to know what to anticipate from a personal perspective.
Looking at the subject from a roster-building perspective, it’s not too hard to see why the Reds might have hesitated. Gennett is still just 28 years of age and has now put up two-straight quality seasons, but he also has some platoon limitations and only lines up at second base defensively. While the plan is to put top prospect Nick Senzel at center field this spring, it’s also possible that he or another rising prospect could make for a compelling infield option in the relatively near term. With other needs already readily foreseeable next winter, locking into Gennett for significant money comes with some clear downside.
Nick Senzel Hires Wasserman Agency
Top Reds prospect Nick Senzel has changed agents, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. He’s now represented by the Wasserman Group and agent Joel Wolfe.
For the time being, the 23-year-old Senzel has plenty of non-contractual matters on his plate. He is working to recover from a finger injury that cost him a big chunk of time last year, learning to patrol the outfield, and trying to convince the front office to bring him up to the majors — if not right out of camp, then not long thereafter.
Odds are that the Reds will at least leave Senzel at Triple-A Louisville for a stretch to open the year. Service time is a relevant consideration for any highly rated players. But the above-noted factors arguably provide ample justification for a stretch in the minors.
[RELATED: MLBTR Agency Database]
The second overall pick of the 2016 draft and a consensus top-ten overall prospect leaguewide, Senzel has done nothing but impress in the minors. He’ll likely be up sooner than later. So long as he spends at least a couple of weeks in the minors to open the season, though, he’ll be controlled by the Reds through at least the 2025 campaign.
Reds, Derek Dietrich Agree To Minor League Deal
The Reds have reached an agreement on a minor league contract with free-agent infielder Derek Dietrich, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll be in Major League camp and compete for a roster spot. The contract, according to Rosenthal, has a base salary north of $2MM if Dietrich makes the big league roster. He’s represented by SportsMeter.
It registers as a somewhat of a surprise that Dietrich, who’ll play most of the upcoming season at age 29, had to settle for a non-guaranteed pact on the heels of yet another solid season at the plate. The Marlins cut him loose rather than pay a salary projected to be worth more than $4MM, but Dietrich still seemed like a candidate to land a big league deal after hitting a combined .262/.344/.428 (114 OPS+) over the past four seasons. This past season, he logged career-highs in plate appearances (551), home runs (16) and doubles (26).
While Dietrich has proven himself to be a solid bat, he’s also proven to be a defensive liability. Second base, left field and third base have been his most frequent positions at the MLB level, and he’s drawn negative ratings at each spot from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. However, the outfield corners are the only spots where Dietrich’s glove has graded out at a particularly alarming level (-23 DRS, -16 in 1120 innings). His defense at second base and third base has been sub-par but not abysmal, and he’s been worth 4.7 wins above replacement overall through the past three seasons, per Fangraphs.
Looking around the Cincinnati roster, it doesn’t appear as though there’ll be everyday at-bats for Dietrich, barring an injury in camp. Joey Votto is entrenched at first base, while Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez have second base and third base, respectively, locked down. The outfield corners don’t present an avenue for regular playing time, either, as the Reds currently have Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker and Scott Schebler all in that mix already. Top prospect Nick Senzel is looming in Triple-A as well, and he seems likely to get a look in center field this season (though he’s a natural infielder).
Dietrich, however, can give the Reds a quality left-handed bat off the bench — one who can handle multiple spots around the diamond. Backup catcher Curt Casali and whichever of Schebler, Kemp, Puig and Winker aren’t starting on a given day will fill additional bench spots. Once Senzel arrives on the scene, that mix will only be deepened.
If Dietrich makes the Reds’ roster and proves to be an asset they’d like to retain beyond the 2019 season, they’ll have the opportunity to do so via arbitration. Dietrich has four years, 151 days of Major League service, meaning he’ll fall shy of six years of service next winter and once again be arbitration-eligible. A lot will need to break right for Dietrich between now and then, but it’s certainly plausible to think that he could parlay today’s agreement into a multi-year run with the Reds.
NL Central Notes: Taillon, Brewers, Shaw, Perez, Reds
Contract extensions, including deals for right-handers Aaron Nola (Phillies) and Luis Severino (Yankees), have been a dominant story across Major League Baseball this week. Sooner than later, the Pirates should follow the Phillies and Yankees in inking their own excellent young righty, Jameson Taillon, for the long haul, Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review opines. Unlike Philly and New York, both of which secured their aces to four-year guarantees worth $40MM or more, Pittsburgh’s not a big spender, perhaps making it all the more important for the Bucs to lock up Taillon at an affordable price in the near future. However, Taillon – who still has four years of control remaining, including three arbitration-eligible seasons – revealed this week that he and the club “haven’t talked about anything” yet. Barring an unexpected change, the 27-year-old will pitch this season for a relative pittance after logging a 3.20 ERA/3.46 FIP with 8.43 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9 over 191 innings in 2018.
More from the NL Central…
- Like Taillon, Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw hasn’t discussed an extension with his club, he told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday. Shaw did note that he’d like to be a long-term Brewer, though, and won’t take umbrage at shifting to second base if the team re-signs free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas. Shaw saw his first major league action at the keystone last year, when he made 39 appearances there (compared to 107 at third). Offensively, the soon-to-be 29-year-old delivered his second straight season of 30-plus home runs, helping him notch his second consecutive campaign with at least 3.5 fWAR. Now in his third-last year of team control, Shaw will earn a team-friendly $4.675MM salary.
- One of Shaw’s fellow Brewers infielders, Hernan Perez, underwent offseason surgery to remove a bone chip in his left wrist, Haudricourt writes. While Perez didn’t mention the injury last season, “it was bothering me a lot,” he said Saturday. The 27-year-old is healthy now, however, and unless the Brewers make a spring acquisition in the form of Moustakas or another infielder, Perez could see substantial playing time again in 2019. From 2016-18, Perez amassed 1,222 plate appearances – including 334 last season – though he combined to hit just .262/.294/.411 during that three-year period.
- The Reds have been one of the majors’ most active teams in recent months, and they remain “open for business,” according to president Dick Williams (via John Fay and Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Williams likes the team as it’s currently constructed, but he added, “We have some resources to do deals if we find the right ones.” It’s out of the question Cincinnati will pursue Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in free agency, and it’s unlikely it’ll go back after previous target Dallas Keuchel, Fay and Nightengale suggest. Rather, the Reds could look to bolster their depth, specifically in center field and at a shortstop, per Fay and Nightengale.
Quick Hits: Giants, Harper, Iglesias, Severino
Giants frontman Farhan Zaidi is still exploring trade opportunities, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter). The recent additions of Gerardo Parra, Craig Gentry, and Yangervis Solarte, after all, aren’t likely to form the backbone of the next World Series champion in the Bay. Still, they fit as puzzle pieces in Zaidi’s strategy to build the organization’s depth while maintaining future roster flexibility. They’re particularly high on Solarte, whom they see as a switch-hitter with above-average contact skills and 15-20 homer potential. His ability to play all over the field should keep him getting regular at-bats, Crowley writes in the Mercury News, and the Giants are optimistic about the potential returns. Per his word, Zaidi has focused on building depth and flexibility thus far, extending more than 20 invites to major league camp and avoiding any long-term roster obligations. Of course, Bryce Harper remains at large, and the Giants have emerged as a potential suitor. One would think Harper would be the type of foundational piece who could buoy the type of depth Zaidi is amassing, but Zaidi knows that even a talent like Harper isn’t a cure-all. For now, Harper remains one avenue among many open to Zaidi. In that sense, he fits Zaidi’s plan perfectly. Let’s check in on a couple other notes from around the league…
- New Reds manager David Bell won’t assign the “closer” label to Raisel Iglesias, as the Reds are buying the new fad gripping bullpens league-wide of role fluidity, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. Put simply, the Reds plan on using Iglesias to help them win games. If that manifests itself through an appearance in the 7th or 8th, so be it. Still, the Reds anticipate Iglesias getting the bulk of save opportunities. Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and Amir Garrett could be called upon to close out games when Iglesias is unavailable. Traditional thinking has kept bullpen arms in well-defined roles in part because of the supposed psychological benefits of “knowing your role” – otherwise known as clear expectations. Bell and the Reds staff plan on communicating often with the bullpen crew, making sure that they are aware of their roles, even as those roles prove more dynamic than in year’s past.
- It’s probably better for players overall if Luis Severino and Aaron Nola go year-to-year through the arbitration process, writes Joel Sherman of the NY Post, but therein lies the quandary for players weighing the risk/reward of securing their own long-term futures against market growth. While setting high arbitration annuals and reaching free agency at the earliest possible moment might technically be the best thing for the player market overall, Severino’s prudent personal decision to lock-in the first significant payday of his career makes a lot of sense from a personal standpoint. His future value was always going to be vulnerable to injury or further uneven performance such as his struggles at the end of last season. The competing interests of individual security v. collective wealth is a disadvantage the players’ union will face continually in the lead up to CBA negotiations in 2021. Yasmani Grandal represents the best recent example of the other side of this issue, as he took a one-year deal over multi-year offers in part to keep establishing higher AAVs for catchers.
Bauer, Cole, Wood Win Arbitration Cases
The players may be suffering through a winter of discontent in the free agent market, but they have now scored some notable wins in arbitration. Trevor Bauer of the Indians, Gerrit Cole of the Astros, and Alex Wood of the Reds have all been awarded the contract values they sought by their respective arbitration panels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).
Bauer will take home $13MM, a full $2MM more than the Indians had sought to pay him. Cole’s $13.5MM salary was about the same amount higher than the Astros’ $11.425MM filing figure. And Wood secures a $9.65MM payday that tops the $8.7MM the Reds defended.
[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]
Those cases break what had been a tie in arb hearings. The players already had a solid edge in the more significant cases, with Blake Treinen ($6.4MM vs. $5.6MM), Carlos Correa ($5MM vs. $4.25MM), and Tommy Pham ($4.1MM vs. $3.5MM) all coming out ahead while Kyle Barraclough ($2MM vs. $1.725MM), Michael Taylor ($3.5MM vs. $3.25MM), and Ryan Tepera ($1.8MM vs. $1.525MM) lost smaller-value contests.
In coming away with wins, all three of the starters also managed to top their projected earning power from MLBTR and Matt Swartz. Bauer ($11.6MM), Cole ($13.0MM), and Wood ($9.0MM) had projected in range of what they ultimately earned, but took shots on securing bigger paydays by making their cases to panels.
Bauer’s situation is particularly noteworthy, since he won a previous arb hearing and remains eligible for one more trip through the process after the 2019 season. This time last year, Bauer emerged with a $6.525MM salary rather than the $5.3MM the team proposed. That made him $1.225MM richer this time around as well, since his raise was dropped on top of a greater starting point. The same will hold true next year.
That serves to illustrate how important these cases can be to an individual player. But there’s also a broader market significance. Each data point that trends north can be cited by another player in the future, either in seeking a bigger arb number or in negotiating out the terms of an extension.
Giants Claim Jose Lopez, Designate Josh Osich For Assignment
The Giants announced Tuesday that they’ve claimed right-hander Jose Lopez off waivers from the Reds. In order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, San Francisco designated left-hander Josh Osich for assignment. Cincinnati had designated the 25-year-old Lopez for assignment Monday after signing Zach Duke.
A year ago, Lopez was considered to be one of the more promising pitching prospects in Cincinnati’s system. The righty was fresh off a 2.57 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate in 147 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A and was added to the Reds’ 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. In 2018, however, Lopez turned in a 4.47 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9 and a diminished 29.1 percent ground-ball rate in 141 innings at the Triple-A level. As noted at the time of his DFA yesterday, Lopez’s relative youth, success in the upper minors and remaining two minor league options made him unlikely to clear waivers.
Lopez will add a potentially useful arm to the upper levels of a San Francisco organization that has been thin on pitching depth in recent seasons. He’s not likely to crack the roster to open the season with Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, Dereck Rodriguez, Derek Holland, Drew Pomeranz and Andrew Suarez all ahead of him on the depth chart. However, Bumgarner, Holland and Pomeranz could all become free agents next winter, which could present Lopez an opportunity to eventually emerge as an option (as could injuries elsewhere on the roster in 2019).
Osich, 30, has spent time with the Giants in each of the past four seasons, though he’s struggled increasingly at the MLB level dating back to 2016. In 120 1/3 innings, Osich has a 5.01 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9 and a 51.8 percent ground-ball rate. Osich has a minor league option remaining and averages about 95 mph on his heater, but his struggles in recent years make it plausible that he could clear waivers and remain in the Giants organization. Last year in Triple-A, Osich posted a 4.96 ERA with a 42-to-18 K/BB ratio in 45 1/3 innings.
Reds Designate Jose Lopez For Assignment
The Reds announced Monday that they’ve designated minor league right-hander Jose Lopez for assignment. His roster spot will go to lefty Zach Duke, whose previously reported one-year contract to return to Cincinnati is now official.
Lopez, 25, isn’t that far removed from ranking as one of the Cincinnati organization’s more promising young arms. However, after pitching to a combined 2.57 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2017, the Dominican-born righty took a step back in 2018. This past season, Lopez turned in a 4.47 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9 and a significantly diminished 29.1 percent ground-ball rate in 141 innings.
The Reds have spent much of the offseason bolstering their pitching depth. The additions of Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark and Alex Wood not only create a difficult path for Lopez to make the big league roster, they also push several would-be MLB arms back down the ladder to the minors, which apparently further squeezed Lopez out of the 40-man picture. Cincinnati does have a pair of out-of-options arms in Robert Stephenson and Matt Wisler, though apparently the organization is more optimistic about that duo than Lopez.
That said, Lopez performed reasonably well up until reaching the minors’ top level and still has a pair of minor league options remaining, which could certainly make him appealing to other clubs that are thin on starting pitching and/or looking to build flexibility on the pitching staff with optionable upper-minors depth. He’s the type of arm that it’s tough to sneak through waivers, although clubs have a bit less 40-man flexibility this time of year, which could play to the Reds’ advantage should they attempt to outright Lopez.