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Reds Notes: Mahle, Drury

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The Cardinals’ search for starting pitching has taken them inside their division, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that St. Louis is one of the many clubs interested in Reds righty Tyler Mahle.  With the Cards looking at all options for rotation help, it only makes sense that they’d be at least checking in on Mahle’s services.

The Phillies, Twins, and Mets are among the clubs linked to Mahle since the start of the season, while the Rangers also reportedly had interest during the offseason.  With Luis Castillo already off the board, it’s fair to guess that most pitching-needy teams have spoken to the Reds about Mahle, and on paper the Cardinals have the kind of young talent that the Reds would surely demand.  However, it is possible Cincinnati might want a higher price for moving Mahle to a division rival — as Morosi notes, the Reds and Cardinals haven’t completed a player-for-player trade since 1997, so it would count as a surprise on some level if Mahle ended up in St. Louis.

  • Just because Castillo has been traded doesn’t mean the Reds are necessarily likelier to hang onto Mahle, since CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson hears that Mahle and Brandon Drury are expected to both be on new teams after the deadline.  Drury is a free agent after the season and thus an obvious trade chip, though Mahle is still under team control through 2023.  But, it now seems like Cincinnati is going to dive into something close to a full rebuild, a process that really started over the winter when they moved several other veteran talents.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Latest On Frankie Montas

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TODAY: The Yankees, Cardinals, and Blue Jays seem to be the top suitors for Montas, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the right-hander’s “market is focused on” these three teams.

JULY 30: With Luis Castillo now on his way to Seattle following last night’s trade to the Mariners, Frankie Montas stands out as perhaps the best and likeliest arm left to be traded before Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline. The majority of teams that held interest in Castillo are involved, to varying extents, in the Montas market, so it’s possible that last night’s deal begins to accelerate the pace of the pitching market overall.

The Yankees, for instance, were known to be Castillo suitors but have now made Montas their top target according to both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The Cardinals, who never seemed likely to be able to land Castillo from a fellow NL Central club, are continuing their pursuit of Montas, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Their pursuit, however, is complicated a bit by simultaneous interest in Nationals superstar Juan Soto; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes in his latest column that some of the Cardinals prospects the A’s are targeting in return for Montas are also coveted by the Nationals.

Several other clubs were linked to both Montas and Castillo in the past week, including the Twins, Padres and Blue Jays. There are also surely other clubs on the periphery of the market whose presence isn’t publicly known. Both Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Rosenthal have indicated, for instance, that the Rangers had engaged with the Reds in talks regarding Castillo. Whether the A’s would seriously entertain sending Montas to a division rival isn’t clear, but it’s telling that Texas is in the market for arms that can be controlled into 2023.

The Athletics’ asking price on Montas was reportedly quite high even before last night’s trade of Castillo potentially upped Oakland’s leverage in talks. In profiling the Cardinals’ current rotation needs, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote (prior to the Castillo deal) that Oakland is believed to be seeking a pair of top prospects and “potentially a currently rostered player with substantial team control remaining.” It’s a steep ask, to be sure, though not an unrealistic one given Montas’ trade value.

Rays Interested In Tommy Pham

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10:57AM: The Rays may not be too deep in the Gallo hunt, as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News hears that the “Yankees wanted too much back” in return.

7:56AM: Joey Gallo’s time in the Bronx is widely expected to be up by Tuesday’s trade deadline, and the Yankees have been exploring trade possibilities for the struggling outfielder.  The Brewers, Padres, and Rays are among the clubs who have shown interest in the former All-Star, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.

San Diego discussed a Gallo deal during Spring Training, and has been linked to the slugger’s market multiple times in the past, dating back to Gallo’s time with the Rangers.  The Rays and Brewers also had interest in Gallo at last year’s deadline, and seem to be again revisiting a trade 12 months later.

Of course, quite a lot has happened to Gallo’s trade value in the past year, none of it good.  After posting only a .707 OPS in 228 plate appearances as a Yankees in 2021, Gallo’s slump has only deepened this season.  Gallo has hit only .159/.282/.339 with 12 homers over 273 PA, with a wRC+ of 81 (the league average is 100) and strikeout and whiff rates that rank near the bottom of the league.

On the flip side, Gallo is still posting outstanding hard-contact numbers and his 14.7% walk rate is one of the best of any player in baseball.  A .217 BABIP only deepens the frustration, yet Gallo is so rarely making contact in the first place that his scuffles can’t be chalked up to just bad batted-ball luck.  This lack of production in the pinstripes is “something I’m gonna have to really live with for the rest of my life,” Gallo told The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler earlier this week.  “It’s going to be tough.  I didn’t play well, I didn’t live up to expectations.  And that’s a tough pill to swallow.”

The Yankees’ acquisition of Andrew Benintendi has all but confirmed that Gallo will be dealt, though what New York can expect back in return is an open question.  The 28-year-old outfielder is a free agent after the season and is owed roughly $3.4MM for the remainder of the year, making it quite possible that the Yankees will have to eat most or all of that money unless another unwanted contract is swapped in return.  While interested teams surely view Gallo as a change-of-scenery candidate, the Yankees don’t have much leverage in trying to market him as such, since it is so widely known that the club wishes to part ways with the outfielder.

In Tampa Bay’s case, the Yankees are surely wary of the idea of Gallo reviving himself on an AL East rival, and it is fair to wonder if New York would want more in order to move Gallo within the division.  The Rays may have the more glaring need for outfield help given that Manuel Margot, Harold Ramirez, and Kevin Kiermaier are all injured, with Kiermaier being out for the season in the wake of hip surgery.

However, the Rays already made a left-handed hitting outfield upgrade yesterday, landing David Peralta in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  It is possible this move could take the Rays out of the Gallo market, though the club is still looking for more outfield depth, as Nightengale also reports that Tampa is interested in former Ray and current Red Tommy Pham.

Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Renfroe, and Tyrone Taylor have comprised Milwaukee’s outfield mix for much of the season, with McCutchen also getting the majority of DH time.  Yelich is the only left-handed bat of the quartet, and Gallo could become a platoon partner with Taylor in center field.  2019 was the only season Gallo played a sizeable amount of center field, but he acquitted himself quite well defensively up the middle, even if right field is his ideal position — Gallo has won the last two American League right field Gold Gloves.

Mariners Acquire Luis Castillo

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The first major starting pitching trade has been made, as the Mariners and Reds announced a deal sending two-time All-Star Luis Castillo to Seattle. In exchange, the Reds bring back four prospects — highly-regarded infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo and right-handers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Cincinnati has selected the contract of reliever Ryan Hendrix to take Castillo’s roster spot.

Castillo had been perhaps the prize of this year’s rotation market. After missing a few weeks due to shoulder soreness to open the year, Castillo made his season debut in early May and has looked like a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s made 14 starts and worked 85 innings, pitching to a 2.86 ERA despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly parks. Castillo has punched out a quality 25.8% of opposing hitters against a solid 8% walk rate. This season’s 47.1% grounder percentage is down a bit relative to his 2019-21 levels, but it remains a few points better than the league average.

That kind of high-end production is about what we’ve come to expect from Castillo, who has cemented himself as one of the sport’s top arms over the past few seasons. He’s posted an ERA under 4.00 in each of the last four years, carrying a cumulative 3.49 mark in 91 starts since the beginning of the 2019 campaign. That’s 24th among 98 qualified starters over that stretch. His 26.8% strikeout rate ranks 23rd among that group, and he’s 12th with a 14.2% swinging strike percentage (whiffs per pitch). He’s complemented the strikeout stuff with a massive 54.8% ground-ball percentage that ranks among the top ten.

Few pitchers can match Castillo’s combination of whiffs and grounders, and the 29-year-old backs it up with an impressive arsenal. He’s one of the harder throwing starters, averaging just shy of 97 MPH on both his four-seam and sinker. Castillo’s bread-and-butter secondary pitch, his changeup, is among the game’s top offspeed offerings, and he’s gotten strong results on his slider as well.

Castillo will move to the front of a rotation that suddenly looks to be one of the more fearsome in the sport. The M’s signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year deal over the winter, and second-year hurler Logan Gilbert has a 2.78 ERA through 21 starts. Rookie George Kirby, who was generally considered among the top handful of pitching prospects entering the season, has a 3.50 ERA through his first 13 big league outings. Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales aren’t high-strikeout arms, but they’re more than capable back-of-the-rotation types.

Seattle will want to keep an eye on the innings totals for Gilbert and Kirby, so there’d have been sense in even adding a stable back-end arm. Instead, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff swung bigger to bolster the 54-46 club they expect to snap the franchise’s two-decade playoff drought. Should they make the postseason, the front office and fanbase alike would no doubt feel strongly about their ability to match opponents’ top three arms with Castillo, Ray and Gilbert.

The deal is about more than just the 2022 season, as Castillo will be arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter. He’s making $7.35MM this year, around $2.75MM of which has yet to be paid out. He’ll earn a decent raise in arbitration but still have a plenty affordable salary — likely around the $12MM range. That’s an obvious bargain for a pitcher of his caliber, making a year and a half of his services incredibly valuable.

That’s reflected in the return, which looks very strong. Marte and Arroyo were the top two prospects in the Seattle system on Baseball America’s most recent top 100, respectively checking in 47th and 48th in the league. Marte, the most well-known of the group, entered the season ranked among the game’s top 15 farmhands in the estimation of each of Keith Law of the Athletic, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

A 6’3″ infielder out of the Dominican Republic, Marte is universally projected as a possible plus power hitter capable of racking up 25 or more home runs annually at his peak. He has played exclusively shortstop in the minors, and while evaluators suggest he might eventually grow off that position, he’s expected to stick on the infield as a possible above-average third baseman. He’s spent the year in High-A as a 20-year-old, putting up an impressive .270/.360/.460 line with 15 homers, a strong 10.8% walk rate and a manageable 21.1% strikeout percentage through 389 plate appearances.

Arroyo, 18, was Seattle’s second-round pick in last year’s draft. The Puerto Rico native has already notably elevated his stock in his first full professional season, raking at a .316/.385/.514 clip in Low-A. He’s collected 13 homers and 19 doubles and stolen 21 bases. That kind of offensive performance was unexpected, as the switch-hitter entered the season more well-regarded for his potential plus defense at shortstop than his bat.

Stoudt recently checked in as the M’s #10 prospect, per Baseball America. The 24-year-old righty has struggled at Double-A this year, pitching to a 5.28 ERA across 87 innings. He has a slightly below-average 22% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.9% walk percentage that look more palatable, however. BA writes that he works in the 94-98 MPH range with his fastball and has a solid array of secondary offerings, led by his changeup. The 2019 3rd-round pick will have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s regarded as a possible back-of-the-rotation starter.

Moore, not to be confused with the former Seattle starter of the same name, was a 14th-round pick out of junior college last year. The 22-year-old righty has worked exclusively out of the bullpen in Low-A, posting a 1.95 ERA through 32 1/3 innings with a ridiculous 43.6% strikeout rate. He’s generally facing younger competition and has walked almost 13% of opponents, but BA recently wrote that he features a 95-97 MPH fastball and a swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He’ll add an interesting lower level bullpen arm to the Cincinnati system.

The trade — which marks the second time in four months these two teams have lined up on a blockbuster — will have plenty of repercussions. Seattle’s decision to push in arguably their top two prospects for one of the sport’s best starters reinforces that the M’s view themselves as a legitimate contender in the American League. It also seemingly signifies they’re out of the running for Juan Soto, although there’s still plenty of upper level talent for Dipoto and his group to further bolster the roster over the next three days. Second base looks like a possible target area, as does backup catcher. Castillo, though, figures to be the splash — the impact addition designed to put a team that’s generally strong around the diamond over the top.

As for the Reds, it’s the second (and likely most notable) trade they’ll make this week as they strip down the big league roster in search of future talent. Castillo’s former rotation mate Tyler Mahle could soon join him in being moved for a marquee return (although not likely one as strong as this). Rental hitters like Brandon Drury and Donovan Solano won’t recoup a franchise-altering package, but there’s little reason for them not to join Tyler Naquin and Castillo in changing clubs.

With Castillo off the market, Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas become the top two rotation trade candidates, in addition to a handful of high-impact arms who might be available despite having control windows extending beyond 2023. Teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers and Twins are known to be in the market for rotation help. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that 12 teams were in contact with the Reds about Castillo and suggests the Yankees’ offer was close to the quality of Seattle’s. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicates Texas made a strong push as well. In the end, the Mariners put the best offer on the table, leaving plenty of others to look elsewhere over the next 72 hours.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report Seattle was nearing a deal for Castillo. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times was first to report the prospects going back to Cincinnati.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Minor MLB Transactions: Fraley, Blankenhorn

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Catching up on some minor moves around the game:

  • The Reds reinstated outfielder Jake Fraley from the 60-day injured list before tonight’s contest against the Orioles. He assumed the roster spot vacated last night when Cincinnati traded Tyler Naquin to the Mets. Fraley, picked up from the Mariners as part of the Spring Training deal that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to Seattle, has been limited to just 15 games in Cincinnati thus far. The 27-year-old has lost much of the season battling knee and toe injuries. Fraley hit .210/.352/.369 in 265 plate appearances with Seattle last season, and the likelihood of an upcoming Tommy Pham trade should clear playing time in the corner outfield down the stretch.
  • Mets infielder Travis Blankenhorn cleared outright waivers, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. New York had designated the left-handed hitter for assignment earlier this week, after he’d made just one appearances. Blankenhorn has now reached the big leagues in each of the last three years, but he has only 31 plate appearances to his name. Having been outrighted before in his career, he had the right to refuse an assignment in favor of free agency. He played with Triple-A Syracuse last night, however, indicating he’s accepted the assignment and will try to play his way back to the majors in Queens.

Luis Castillo Is Mariners' "Main Focus"

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  • The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
  • As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.

Mets Acquire Tyler Naquin, Phillip Diehl From Reds

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The Reds and Mets have lined up on a trade sending outfielder Tyler Naquin and minor league reliever Phillip Diehl from Cincinnati to New York. In exchange, the Reds are acquiring a pair of low minors prospects, right-hander Jose Acuña and second baseman Hector Rodríguez. Both clubs have announced the agreement.

Naquin had been one of the more obvious trade candidates around the league. The 31-year-old is set to reach free agency at the end of the season, so there was little reason for the last-place Reds not to look to move him for future value. He’ll head to Queens as the second left-handed bat the Mets have added in as many weeks. New York picked up first baseman/designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach in a deal with the Pirates last Friday.

A former first-round pick of Cleveland, Naquin had an excellent rookie season back in 2016. His offensive productivity was up-and-down for the rest of his time there, but he’s settled in as a solid platoon bat over the past two years. Naquin signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati over the 2020-21 offseason, and he cracked the Opening Day roster last year. That paved for the way for a season and a half as a Red, in which he posted a .262/.324/.462 line through 655 plate appearances.

That overall offensive productivity is a hair above average, and Naquin has been quite good when holding the platoon advantage. He’s popped 23 homers in 542 plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the past couple seasons, compiling a .278/.338/.503 mark against righties. That power has translated outside of the Reds hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and the Mets figure to leverage him as a platoon player down the stretch.

The Mets have one of the game’s best outfields, with a trio of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte manning the grass. Canha and Marte will continue to pick up the lion’s share of playing time in the corners, but Naquin complements those veteran right-handed bats. He’ll also supplement a DH group that includes Vogelbach and Dominic Smith from the left side, as well as the righty-swinging J.D. Davis.

Naquin’s acquisition seemingly increases the likelihood that at least one of Smith or Davis gets dealt before next Tuesday’s deadline. The Mets have been on the hunt for offensive help for weeks, largely due to dissatisfaction with Smith’s and Davis’ performance. Adding a pair of DH/bench bats to an already full outfield and with superstar Pete Alonso at first base further clutters that group. Each of Smith and Davis has minor league options remaining, and the Mets have already optioned Smith this year. That’s a possibility if the club simply wants to stockpile as much depth as possible, but it also stands to reason they’d be open to trade opportunities.

The Mets will seemingly add a bit of money to the payroll, as there’s no indication cash considerations are changing hands. Naquin is playing this season on a $4.025MM salary, around $1.525MM of which is still to be paid. The Mets luxury tax figure is narrowly above the $290MM threshold, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, a team that exceeds $290MM (the fourth and highest tier of CBT penalization) is taxed at an 80% rate for every dollar thereafter.

In addition to Naquin, the Mets add some non-roster bullpen depth. Diehl, who was outrighted off the Reds 40-man roster in May, won’t immediately occupy a spot on New York’s 40-man. He’s spent the bulk of the season with the Reds top affiliate in Louisville, working to a 4.24 ERA through 23 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old has an excellent 30.6% strikeout rate against a decent 8.2% walk percentage, although his fly-ball oriented approach has made him fairly home run prone.

New York’s left-handed relief depth is thin, with Joely Rodríguez and recent waiver claim Sam Clay the only two bullpen southpaws on the 40-man roster. Clay has been hit hard in four appearances with Triple-A Syracuse and has yet to appear in an MLB game as a Met. Rodríguez, acquired from the Yankees shortly before the season, owns a 5.93 ERA across 27 1/3 innings on the year. He’s striking out batters and inducing grounders at a decent clip, but he’s also walked a massive 16.3% of batters faced. Left-handed relief help figures to continue to be a target over the next few days even with Diehl bolstering the organizational depth.

To create space for Naquin on the 40-man roster, the Mets announced they’ve designated reliever R.J. Alvarez for assignment. The righty was selected onto the roster earlier this month but didn’t wind up making an MLB appearance. He’s had a nice season in Syracuse, working to a 3.16 ERA through 31 1/3 frames. The Mets will presumably place the 31-year-old on waivers in the coming days.

The Reds, meanwhile, add some talent to the lower levels. Rodríguez, an 18-year-old infielder, was recently ranked by Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs as the #30 prospect in the Mets organization. Longenhagen writes that the left-handed hitter has excellent bat control, but he has limited power upside in a 5’8″ frame.  He was recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. Acuña, 19, was recently promoted to Low-A. He has never appeared on an organizational prospect list at FanGraphs or Baseball America.

It’s the first move of what’s likely to be a busy few days for Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle are the club’s top trade candidates, but they also have a host of rental bats who should generate interest. Beyond Naquin, Cincinnati could market impending free agent hitters Brandon Drury, Donovan Solano and Tommy Pham to contenders.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Mets were acquiring Diehl. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets were acquiring Naquin. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report the prospect return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Trade Markets For Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas

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Reds righty Luis Castillo and A’s righty Frankie Montas are not and never have been teammates, but their trade markets have been near inextricably linked dating back to the offseason. That’s understandable, given the similarities between them. The 29-year-olds are separated by just three months in age, by about $2MM in salary and are both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Statistically, they’re nearly identical — although Castillo has handled the larger workload in recent years. Both pitch for clubs that were more focused on cutting payroll and stashing prospects than on putting together a 2022 winner. As such, both are obvious trade candidates (and have been since the winter).

The Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees have been the three most aggressive teams on the Montas/Castillo front, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, with the Twins, Blue Jays and Padres each also in the fold to varying extents. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also hears the Yankees are involved on both hurlers and calls adding a starter “a priority” for New York.

Bolstering the rotation is similarly going to be a key objective for St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz to injury in recent weeks. Flaherty is already on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least late August due to a shoulder strain. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee over the weekend. John Denton of MLB.com wrote a few days ago that Matz was optimistic about avoiding season-ending surgery, but he’s expected to be sidelined into September even if he can rehab without going under the knife.

The Cardinals also faced a rotation shortage at last summer’s deadline. They addressed that rather modestly, acquiring veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as strike-throwing stabilizers at the back of the rotation. Robert Murray of FanSided reported last night the front office was looking for a higher-impact hurler than a Lester/Happ type this year, and a pursuit of Castillo and/or Montas certainly aligns with that assessment. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, meanwhile, writes that the Cardinals have explored the market for both impending free agents and starters with multiple remaining seasons of club control.

New York, meanwhile, recently lost Luis Severino to the injured list on account of a lat strain. New York welcomed back Domingo Germán to take his rotation spot, but there’s not a ton of proven healthy depth beyond their top five. The Yankees have also seen righty Jameson Taillon scuffle of late, leaving them scouring the market for additional help. Like the Cardinals, they seem to be casting a wide net. In addition to high-impact hurlers in the Castillo/Montas range, they’ve also been linked to Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who’d be a lower-cost depth pickup at the back end.

As for the Mariners, they have a range of areas they can add over the next six days. The M’s just wrapped up a sweep of the Rangers to pull to 54-45. They’re ten games back of the Astros in the AL West but in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re three games clear of the Guardians, the non-playoff team with the best record in the league.

With a strong opportunity to snap a playoff drought that has lasted more than two decades, the Mariners are in position to seek impact talent. Seattle entered play Wednesday with the sixth-lowest rotation ERA (3.65) in the majors. They’re middle-of-the-pack from a strikeout/walk perspective, however, with both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales posting below-average strikeout rates. There are also possible innings concerns for highly-touted rookie George Kirby, who has already tallied 96 frames this season between the minors and big leagues. That’s above the 67 2/3 innings he logged in the upper minors last year, so there’s certainly room for another starter to relieve some of the pressure on Kirby down the stretch and for what the club hopes will be a postseason run.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

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