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Reds’ Brandon Williamson Leaves Start With Elbow Strain

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Reds starter Brandon Williamson left tonight’s start against the Braves in obvious discomfort. The southpaw looked to be in a lot of pain after throwing a pitch to Michael Harris II in the second inning (video provided by Pitching Ninja). Williamson came out of the game and Cincinnati later announced that he suffered an elbow strain (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds have yet to provide much beyond that initial diagnosis. They’ll presumably send Williamson for imaging within the next couple days.

The left-hander has spent most of the season on the injured list. Williamson suffered a shoulder injury in Spring Training. While it initially looked as if he might need to undergo surgery, he managed to treat the issue with a series of injections. Williamson returned to the MLB staff this month. He’d allowed four runs (three earned) across 13 innings over his first three appearances of the season.

Williamson started 23 games for Cincinnati last year. The TCU product made his MLB debut in May and tossed 117 innings of 4.46 ERA ball over the next few months. Williamson was hit hard early on but turned in a 3.97 ERA in 70 1/3 frames after the All-Star Break. He had a good chance of securing a spot at the back of David Bell’s Opening Day rotation had he been healthy.

That wasn’t the case, and he’ll now hope that tonight’s elbow injury isn’t as serious as it initially seems. The Reds will certainly shut him down for the final couple weeks of this season. If he incurred significant ligament damage, that’d obviously have the potential for surgery that could sideline him next year.

Assuming the Reds place Williamson on the injured list, he’ll join Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott. Rotation injuries have been a huge factor in Cincinnati’s disappointing season. Bell indicated before tonight’s game that the Reds are hopeful of getting Greene and Abbott back before the end of the year (relayed on X by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Lodolo, who went on the IL in late August with a finger sprain, will not return this season.

PBO Nick Krall: Reds Will “Evaluate Everything” After 2024 Letdown

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A mass influx of young talent led the 2023 Reds to a 82-80 record, and hopes that the club could develop into full-fledged contenders this season.  Unfortunately, even a .500 record is a longshot at this point, as the 72-77 Reds have fallen out of playoff contention.  Most of Cincinnati’s breakout players from 2023 took steps backwards due to injuries or just flat-out lack of production, and players like Jeimer Candelario or (the since-traded) Frankie Montas meant to bring veteran stability also struggled.

“As of right now, we’re going to evaluate everything at the end of the year and see what we have to do to move forward,” president of baseball operations Nick Krall told reporters, including the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer.  Krall included “myself, everybody” under this purview, though there hasn’t been any indication that ownership is considering firing Krall less than a year after signing him to a contract extension.

Manager David Bell also inked a new extension midway through last season, locking up the skipper on a three-year deal covering the 2024-26 campaigns.  “He’s got a contract for next year,” is now Krall described Bell’s status with the organization, which could be read as either a matter-of-fact way of declaring Bell’s job security, or as something less than a full confirmation that Bell will return for what would be his seventh season as the Reds’ manager.

Krall noted that organization-wide evaluations are done every year as a matter of due diligence, so in general, the PBO isn’t breaking any news by saying that the Reds will take a deep look at what went awry.  However, such evaluations in the wake of a losing season could potentially lead to larger moves as the team looks for answers.  It would seem like some coaching changes will be made at the very minimum, and whether or not Bell’s job atop the dugout depth chart remains to be seen.

Bell takes a 405-452 record into today’s action, with winning records in three of his six full seasons.  The Reds have never had better than a .517 winning percentage under Bell, and their only playoff appearance during his tenure came in the shortened 2020 season, when the league expanded the playoff bracket to 16 teams.  Cincinnati was a quick out in that year’s postseason, as the Reds didn’t even score a run during a pair of losses to the Braves in a best-of-three wild card series.

As always, it is hard to pinpoint how much a manager does or doesn’t contribute to a team’s success or failure.  Bell took over a Reds team that was just coming out of a rebuild, and then quickly entered into another payroll cut and semi-rebuild following the 2021 season, as the team wanted to save money due to revenues lost during the pandemic.  Bell has managed the Reds through this tumult, as well as a front office change (with Krall taking over the baseball operations department from Dick Williams after the 2020 season), the completely unexpected circumstance of the pandemic, and then this quick pivot back to a reload of young talent.

Unless ownership feels a new voice is needed in the dugout to really get the Reds back onto a winning track, Bell might get at least one more year as manager.  It seems quite possible the Reds might suddenly have a much more positive outlook if the younger players who struggled or missed time this year (i.e. Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Alexis Diaz, Noelvi Marte, etc.) re-establish themselves in 2025.  And, if Bell is being gauged on the development of the team’s young core, then the emergence of Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, and Andrew Abbott could all count as arguments as to why Bell should stick around.

For as much as a managerial change can shake things up, it is also perhaps the easiest way for a team to address a disappointing stretch of play, and not necessarily the correct way.  Krall will face an interesting offseason in determining how to build the roster through more additions (while still operating on a somewhat limited payroll), and in figuring which of the younger stars might have played themselves out of Cincinnati’s future, or who just had “sophomore slump” types of seasons.

Matt McLain Likely Done For 2024 Season

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It’s highly unlikely that Matt McLain will play again in 2024. The Reds infielder has been on the injured all season after undergoing shoulder surgery in March. He was initially targeting a return sometime in August, but a rib cage stress reaction he suffered about six weeks ago turned out to be a major setback in his rehab.

Still, until recently, the Reds had been holding out hope he could return before the end of the year. Just last week, manager David Bell told members of the media (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that McLain was “pain-free” and on his way back to “baseball activities.” Today, however, Bell admitted that it isn’t realistic to expect McLain to return this season, telling reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com): “It’s probably not going to happen.”

McLain, 25, finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season after he hit .290/.357/.507 with 23 doubles, 16 home runs, and 14 stolen bases in 89 contests. He also put up 2 OAA and 4 DRS while splitting his time between shortstop and second base. Looking like a legitimate five-tool talent, McLain finished with 3.1 FanGraphs WAR in just over half a season’s worth of games. Hopefully, Cincinnati will finally be able to see what he can do over a full season in 2025.

The Reds entered the 2024 campaign with a glut of talented young hitters, but many of those players have struggled this season for one reason or another. Spencer Steer and Will Benson have each taken a big step back at the plate after their breakout performances in 2023. Noelvi Marte has been a disaster since his return from an 80-game PED suspension earlier this year. Christian Encarnacion-Strand was slumping badly before he underwent surgery on his wrist in May. He has not played since. McLain was the most exciting of all those names in 2023, and his lost 2024 season has been, perhaps, the most disappointing.

Indeed, the word “disappointing” pretty much sums up the Reds in 2024. A year after finishing third in the NL Central and two games back of the final Wild Card spot, they currently sit fourth in their division and 10.5 games back of a postseason berth. They’re on pace to finish 78-84, four games worse than their record in 2023. Their pitching staff ranks 16th with a 4.06 ERA, while their offense ranks 26th with an 89 wRC+. They also rank 26th with a -23 fielding run value, per Baseball Savant.

McLain was hoping to get back on the field before the end of the season. Surely, the Reds would have loved to have his bat and glove back on the roster. However, at this point in the year, it’s not hard to understand why he and the team are putting their efforts toward a stronger and healthier 2025 instead.

Nick Martinez’s Third Straight Opt-Out Decision

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In a couple months, Nick Martinez will need to decide whether to test free agency for what would be the fourth straight offseason. More than most free agents, Martinez has seemed to value flexibility. Since he returned to affiliated ball during the 2021-22 offseason after a stint in Japan, the right-hander has signed contracts that allow him to opt out after the first season.

In each case, Martinez has pitched well enough to take that opportunity. He provided the Padres with 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball in 2022. San Diego brought him back in free agency on a new three-year deal after he triggered the out clause. That came with another opt-out possibility, which Martinez took last winter after posting a 3.43 ERA through 110 1/3 frames.

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Reds Place Sam Moll On 15-Day Injured List

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The Reds placed left-hander Sam Moll on the 15-day injured list today, and called up righty Casey Legumina from Triple-A Louisville in a corresponding move.  Moll is dealing with a left shoulder impingement, and it is “not likely” that he’ll return before the season is over, as the southpaw told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Moll has been trying to pitch through the injury for a few weeks, and the issue might even date back to last season, when Moll said he was also trying to pitch through some shoulder discomfort in order to contribute to a contending Reds team.  Coming into this season, Moll began the year on the 15-day injured list and didn’t make his season debut until April 23.

“I obviously don’t want it to snowball to what it did last offseason, where it screwed up my offseason as far as preparation and leading into obviously what I dealt with earlier this year,” Moll said.  It isn’t yet known if Moll will just need to rest his shoulder, or if some kind of procedure could be needed to address the problem.

Despite the lack of a proper ramp-up in the spring, Moll still delivered some quality innings out of Cincinnati’s bullpen.  If this is indeed it for his 2024 campaign, he’ll finish the season with a 3.35 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate, and 46.9% grounder rate over 37 2/3 innings and 48 appearances.  Moll isn’t a particularly hard thrower, but his sinker and sweeper are plus pitches that induce a lot of soft contact.  Left-handed batters have only a .430 OPS in 63 plate appearances against Moll this year, and he has also been effective against righty swingers to the tune of a .719 OPS in 89 PA.

This solid 2024 season comes on the heels of the 0.73 ERA Moll posted in the 24 2/3 innings he pitched for the Reds in 2023 after Cincinnati acquired him from the A’s at the trade deadline.  A veteran of five MLB seasons, Moll will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter as he enters his age-33 season.  If no injury-related complications interfere with the Reds’ decision to tender Moll a contract, he’ll be in line for a nice raise to get him out of the minimum-salary range.

Dominic Smith Elects Free Agency

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First baseman Dominic Smith elected free agency rather than accept his outright assignment to Triple-A Louisville after being designated for assignment by the Reds, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. He can now sign with any club for the remaining three weeks of the regular season. However, Smith would not be postseason-eligible for a new club, and non-contenders may prefer to give those at-bats to a younger player who can be controlled beyond the current season. Smith, who has more than six years of MLB service, would become a free agent again at season’s end.

Smith’s time with the Reds proved quite brief. The 29-year-old appeared in only nine games and batted .192/.276/.269 in a tiny sample of 29 plate appearances before he was designated for assignment and passed through waivers unclaimed. The bulk of his 2024 season was spent in a Red Sox uniform. Boston signed Smith back in May after Triston Casas sustained a rib fracture and gave the longtime Mets first baseman 84 games and 278 plate appearances as their regular first baseman while Casas was shelved. Smith held his own with a .237/.317/.390 slash that was a bit below league-average in that time (96 wRC+), but the Sox moved on once Casas was healthy.

A former first-round pick (No. 11 overall) by the Mets, Smith long ranked among their top prospects prior to his debut and looked to be delivering on that status in 2019-20, when he hit .299/.366/.571 and belted 21 homers in a combined 396 plate appearances across those two seasons.

In the four seasons since that impressive showing, Smith’s bat has wilted. He admitted after the fact  that he’d tried to play through a small tear of the labrum in his right shoulder during his 2021 season, which understandably didn’t go well. An ankle injury the following season further hobbled Smith. His numbers in 2023-24 ticked back up a bit, but Smith’s offensive output in each of these past two seasons has nonetheless checked in below-average. Overall, since that potential 2019-20 breakout, Smith has slashed .241/.311/.360 between four teams (Mets, Nats, Red Sox, Reds).

Reds Outright Dominic Smith

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September 4: Smith has been outrighted to Triple-A Louisville, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has the right to elect free agency though it’s not yet clear if he has chosen to do so.

September 2: The Reds announced that they have recalled outfielder Blake Dunn from Triple-A Louisville. In a corresponding move, first baseman Dominic Smith has been designated for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Smith, 29, was with the Reds for just over a week. He signed with them on August 22 and has since taken 29 plate appearances over nine games, hitting just .192/.276/.269 in that time. That’s obviously not great production but it’s also not a meaningful sample size to draw conclusions from.

The fact that Smith is now being bumped from the roster might say more about the team than about him. The Reds were 5.5 games back of a playoff spot when Smith was signed but they have since fallen to 9.5 games back. With their playoff hopes now essentially dashed, there’s little use for an impending free agent like Smith, especially one with no real defensive versatility. They can instead use their remaining games to give playing time to players trying to earn roles on next year’s club, such as Dunn.

Smith has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment, so he will likely be a free agent in the coming days, either by a release or by him exercising his right to opt for the open market. Prior to his disappointing stint in Cincinnati, he had a better run in Boston. In 84 games for the Red Sox, he hit .237/.317/.390 for a wRC+ of 96, indicating he was 4% below league average.

He could perhaps try to latch on somewhere else for the remainder of the season, though he won’t be postseason eligible with a new club as it’s now after the September 1 cut-off date. Clubs out of contention like the Reds would probably prefer to give playing time to controllable players. Smith had a strong run in 2019-20, hitting .299/.366/.571 over those two seasons, but it’s been a rough ride side since then. In over 1,500 trips to the plate from 2021 to the present, he’s hit .241/.311/.360 for a wRC+ of 86.

Reds Outright David Buchanan

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The Reds have sent right-hander David Buchanan outright to Triple-A Louisville, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment earlier this week.

Buchanan, 35, was seemingly an emergency option for the Reds. Their rotation had been without Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson for much of the season due to injury. In August, each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Christian Roa went on the injured list.

They sent cash to the Phillies to get Buchanan at the end of last month. He was eligible to be traded after the deadline since, at the time, he hadn’t been on a 40-man roster in 2024. He had signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in the offseason and had a 4.82 earned run average in 102 2/3 Triple-A innings before the deal.

Shortly after acquiring him, the Reds added him to their roster in order to provide a multi-inning option to their staff. The club deployed a bullpen game on August 31, with Buchanan tossing 3 1/3 innings, allowing one earned run on two hits and two walks while striking out one Brewer. Williamson was reinstated from the 60-day injured list the next day, with Buchanan designated for assignment to open up spots on both the active and 40-man rosters.

That one outing was Buchanan’s first in the majors since 2015, when he was with the Phillies. He was pitching in Japan from 2017 to 2019 and then in Korea from 2020 through 2023, before returning to North America this year. He now has a 4.97 ERA in 195 2/3 MLB innings, with almost a decade in between his time with the Phillies and his time with the Reds.

This is his first career outright and he has less than three years of major league service time. Though the Reds got Williamson back, the pitching staff is still fairly snakebitten. Buchanan can provide them with some non-roster depth for the next few weeks and could perhaps be summoned back to the majors if they need reinforcements again.

Reds Outright Evan Kravetz, Davis Wendzel

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Left-hander Evan Kravetz and infielder Davis Wendzel both passed through waivers unclaimed and have been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com on X. Both players had been designated for assignment by the Reds in the past week.

Kravetz, 27, was just added to the roster last week, his first call to the majors. He got into one game, tossing two thirds of an inning without allowing a run, before being designated for assignment. Since he has just a few days of service time and no previous career outrights, he doesn’t have the right to reject this assignment.

He will therefore return to Louisville and provide the club with some left-handed depth in a non-roster capacity. He already has 42 1/3 innings tossed for the Bats this year with a 3.40 earned run average. His 11.7% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 25% of batters faced.

Wendzel, 27, was once a somewhat notable prospect in the Rangers’ system. That club selected him 41st overall in the 2019 draft but his bat never really lived up to expectations. From 2021 to the present, he has played in 338 minor league games with a combined slash line of .232/.338/.426, which translates to a 91 wRC+.

He got out to a strong start this year and got added to the Texas roster in April. Around multiple optional assignments, he hit just .128/.163/.234 in his first 47 major league plate appearances. His hot start in the minors also cooled, so that his line in Triple-A for the season is now .266/.361/.407. That includes stints with the Triple-A clubs of the Rangers and Reds, as he was designated for assignment by Texas at the end of July and flipped to Cincinnati for cash.

This time, no trade was possible with the deadline having passed and none of the 29 other clubs were willing to grab him off waivers. Like Kravetz, he will report to Louisville and provide the club with some non-roster depth. Wendzel has played all four infield positions in his career, so he can give the club cover all over the dirt.

Reds Activate Brandon Williamson From 60-Day IL

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this morning that saw them activate left-handers Brandon Williamson and Brent Suter as well as outfielder Jake Fraley from the injured list. Right-hander David Buchanan was designated for assignment to make room for Williamson, who had been on the 60-day IL, on both the 40-man and active rosters. No corresponding moves were necessary to return Fraley and Suter, who were on the 10- and 15-day ILs respectively and will take the extra roster spots created by today’s expansion from 26 to 28 roster spots.

Williamson, 26, has missed the entire season to this point due to a shoulder strain he suffered back in March. The lefty was at risk of requiring season-ending surgery back in June but opted against going under the knife in hopes of rehabbing the issue. That plan has clearly worked out fairly well, as the lefty is now back on a big league mound for the first time in nearly a full calendar year. The southpaw enjoyed a solid if unspectacular rookie season with the Reds last year with a 4.46 ERA and 4.63 FIP to go along with a 20% strikeout rate in 117 innings that came together to give him the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation starting option.

Once a top-100 prospect, Williamson was acquired alongside Fraley as part of the package that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners prior to the 2022 season. Long looked at as a likely middle- to back-of-the-rotation arm, Williamson has turned heads during his rehab process in the minor leagues this year with a microscopic 0.55 ERA in five rehab starts this year. That excellent production is backed up by an increase in strikeout rate, as Williamson has punched out 25.4% of batters faced while rehabbing this year. If the young lefty really has managed to not only return healthy but shows signs of having taken a step forward at the big league level down the stretch this year, that’ll be an exciting turn of events for the Reds as they look ahead to 2025 with Williamson, Nick Lodolo, and Rhett Lowder all in the conversation for starts behind Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott.

Making room for Williamson on the 40-man roster is Buchanan, who was added to the club’s roster just yesterday. The 35-year-old journeyman posted 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball in yesterday’s game against the Brewers in what was his first big league work in nearly a decade. The righty last pitched in the majors for the Phillies back in 2015, when he struggled to a 6.99 ERA in 15 starts on the heels of what was a promising rookie campaign in 2014. Since then, Buchanan has spent the majority of his career pitching overseas in Japan and Korea, with a combined 3.50 ERA in 1169 2/3 overseas innings of work.

As for Fraley and Suter, the pair return from the injured list for the stretch run in hopes of proving themselves healthy and effective headed into next season. Fraley, 29, has struggled this year when healthy with a lackluster slash line of just .271/.323/.366 in 92 games. Suter, meanwhile, sports a 3.68 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 51 1/3 innings of work so far this year. The Reds hold a $3.5MM club option of Suter’s services for next season, while Fraley will be eligible for arbitration for the second time in his career over the offseason.

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