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Poll: Michael Brantley’s Option

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Michael BrantleyWith free agency around the corner, the American League Central-winning Indians could be on the verge of losing a few notable contributors to their 2017 offense. Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson – who each posted above-average production over a combined 1,100-plus plate appearances this year – are slated to hit the open market, and it’s possible outfielder Michael Brantley will join them.

Unlike his three teammates, Brantley is controllable through 2018 (with a $12MM club option), but Cleveland brass has not indicated whether it’s going to bring him back. As of Oct. 19, the Indians were “working through” what to do with Brantley, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters.

Antonetti & Co. have until three days after the World Series to make a call on Brantley’s option, which comes with a $1MM buyout. If the Indians are confident Brantley will be consistently available in 2018, keeping him in the fold should be a no-brainer. The 30-year-old has been a quality regular over the past several seasons, after all, especially when he combined to slash a superb .319/.382/.494 with 38 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 1,272 PAs from 2014-15. Unfortunately, injuries have somewhat derailed Brantley’s career since that star-caliber two-year stretch, thus complicating the Indians’ decision.

The Tribe won an AL pennant and came within a victory of a World Series title in 2016, but the team did it without Brantley, who took just 41 trips to the plate and didn’t play past May 9. Shoulder problems troubled Brantley then, though his offseason recovery from surgery went well enough that he was able to make it back for the start of 2017.

In terms of production, this season represented a successful return for Brantley, who hit a respectable .299/.357/.444 with nine homers and 11 steals in 383 PAs. Availability was an issue again, though, as Brantley endured multiple stints on the disabled list with a right ankle sprain. Brantley’s second DL placement, on Aug. 9, brought an end to his regular season with nearly two months remaining in the campaign. Encouragingly, Brantley returned for the Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees and totaled 12 PAs in the series, yet his comeback didn’t mean his ankle woes were completely behind him. Shortly after Cleveland’s elimination, Brantley underwent ankle surgery, and he’s now in the early stages of a four- to five-month recovery.

With this year’s World Series set to wrap up Wednesday at the latest, the Indians have less than a week to determine whether an on-the-mend Brantley will be worth keeping around at a fairly high price. Ideally, retaining Brantley would help the Tribe’s offense overcome the potential departures of Santana, Bruce and Jackson. However, considering the Indians are entering the offseason without a lot of payroll space to work with, allocating $12MM to a player with injury questions may be a risk they elect not to take.

Will the Indians pick up Michael Brantley's option?
No 55.86% (3,185 votes)
Yes 44.14% (2,517 votes)
Total Votes: 5,702

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Chief Wahoo, Cubs, Otani

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The new Marlins ownership group apparently asked Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Andre Dawson to remain with the organization, but at a 75% pay cut amounting to a $25k annual salary. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has the full scoop here. In a phone interview with FanRag, Perez said, “They say they wanted us in the organization. But we didn’t like the way they wanted us in the organization.” The debacle actually began with Marlins president David Samson calling Perez to tell him that the two were being let go. After a few subsequent events, Perez and Dawson were given the $25K offer and asked to spend their time with minor leaguers rather than the major leaguers they had developed a rapport with. Conflicting information came to the two Hall of Famers from Samson and Jeter over the course of a few days, leading Perez to describe the whole fiasco as “ridiculous”, adding that “it wasn’t right”.  They’ve rejected their respective low-ball offers and will no longer be a part of the Marlins organization.

Some other items across major league baseball as the Astros and Dodgers prepare to face each other in Game 4…

  • Yuli Gurriel’s use of a racial slur aimed at Yu Darvish has once again brought up the subject of the Indians’ Chief Wahoo logo. When asked about Chief Wahoo, Manfred said that he sees a difference between the logo and Gurriel’s slur, but that “both are problematic” (via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). Scott Miller of Bleacher Report adds in his own tweet that Manfred plans to deal with Chief Wahoo in the offseason.
  • The Cubs might be willing to listen on big-name players in order to acquire young pitchers, Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports. He lists Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Sean Manaea, Aaron Nola and Michael Fulmer as potential targets, noting that only Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are likely to be considered untouchable. The Cubs’ starting staff finished with a 4.05 combined ERA last season, but could see former Cy Young-winner Jake Arrieta leave in free agency (Rogers cites the Rangers as a team that could potentially sign him).
  • Coveted Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Shohei Otani has been released from the hospital following successful ankle surgery, according to a report from the Japan Times. Otani’s recovery process will be one to watch, as he’s likely to be courted by all 30 MLB teams during the offseason as he attempts a move to the majors. Otani’s ankle injury can actually be traced all the way back to last October and has bothered him ever since, so fans in Japan and the US alike will hope that this surgery puts a firm end to any issues.

Kapler, Wathan Among Finalists For Phillies Manager

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The Phillies have an opening in the dugout after surprisingly removing Pete Mackanin from that role and transitioning him to a front office role. Philadelphia had extended Mackanin just four months earlier, making the decision all the more unexpected. We’ll track the majority of the managerial chatter pertaining to the Phils here over the course of the search and update accordingly as the hunt progresses…

Finalists

  • If the Phillies opt for a manager with Major League experience, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets that the “industry expectation” is that John Farrell will get the job.
  • MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler is also a finalist for the position, along with Wathan. Both impressed the Phils with their first interviews, and it sounds as if the Philadelphia brass will conduct one more round of interviews with this pair (and any other yet-unknown finalists) before making a final decision.
  • The Phillies are “zeroing in” on Triple-A skipper Dusty Wathan for the job, per Nightengale (via Twitter). He’ll join Kapler, at the least, in a second wave of interviews. Wathan only briefly cracked the majors as a player, but has once again climbed the minor-league ladder since moving to the coaching ranks with the Phillies back in 2008.

Will Interview/Have Interviewed (Still Under Consideration)

  • Recently fired Red Sox manager John Farrell interviewed for the position on Oct. 25, reports Zolecki. It’s not yet clear whether Farrell’s sitdown with the Phils will result in another interview.
  • Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler is also slated for an interview, as Zolecki reports. Kapler took his position with Los Angeles after missing on the team’s managerial opening, but has continued to be cited as a possible candidate elsewhere ever since.
  • The Phillies already have one strong internal candidate in Jorge Velandia, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Currently a special assistant to GM Matt Klentak, Velandia interviewed for the opening on Wednesday and is a “strong candidate,” according to Salisbury, though other interviews are sure to be conducted with external candidates. Nonetheless, Salisbury writes that the 42-year-old Velandia is well versed in player development and has embraced the analytical side of the game. His work with Klentak and the rest of the front office should bode well for communication. He’s spent time on the Phillies’ big league coaching staff in the past and has also spent six seasons as a manager in the Venezuelan Winter League.
  • Current Phillies third base coach Juan Samuel has also interviewed for the opening, as Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Daily News recently reported. Samuel, 56, has been on the Phillies’ coaching staff since 2011 after coming over from the Orioles, where he worked with Andy MacPhail, who was then the Orioles’ president and now holds that same role with the Phillies. Samuel spoke to Brookover about his own openness to incorporating more data-driven decisions into on-field decisions. “If you have something available to you that gives you an advantage over other clubs, you should definitely use it,” he said.
  • Both Salisbury and Brookover list Triple-A manager Dusty Wathan as another internal candidate that is expected to interview. It’s not known yet whether the 44-year-old has interviewed, but he’s spent the past 10 seasons managing at various levels throughout the Phillies’ system, so he obviously has plenty of familiarity with the Phillies’ homegrown players and a number of the front office execs that have been with the club for an extended period of time.

Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Unknown)

  • The Phillies have spoken with Mariners third base coach Manny Acta, Jon Heyman of FanRag writes (and clarifies on Twitter). Acta, who managed the Nationals from 2007-09 and the Indians from 2010-12, was in the running for the Mets’ job before it went to Mickey Callaway.
  • In addition to a few of the other names already covered here, Heyman hears that the Phils have some level of interested in Red Sox bench coach Gary DiSarcina and possibly former Tigers manager Brad Ausmus. Boston is in the midst of its own managerial hiring process, with the club leaving coaches like DiSarcina free to explore their options with other organizations.
  • The Phillies are interested in speaking to Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond, per Heyman. There’s been no definitive word of an interview, but the former Marlins manager has been building his dugout resume since calling it quits as a player back in 2010. At 46, he’d give the Phillies a considerably younger voice than they’ve had under recent skippers like Mackanin, Ryne Sandberg and Charlie Manuel.

Not in the Mix/No Longer in Consideration

  • Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com reported recently that the Phillies won’t consider bench coach Larry Bowa or former GM Ruben Amaro Jr. for the post. Klentak has stated a desire for a “new voice” and a “new style” in the dugout, Lawrence notes, which wouldn’t be accomplished with the 71-year-old Bowa. As for Amaro, while he’d been previously connected to the role and is reportedly on the Tigers’ radar, Lawrence definitively characterized the chances of Amaro being on the team’s radar as nonexistent.
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Phil Nevin is no longer in the running after interviewing recently. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Athletics third base coach Chip Hale, who also interviewed for the Philadelphia vacancy, has been eliminated from the running as well.
  • Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway interviewed for the post but has since been hired as the new manager of the Mets.

Indians Name Carl Willis Pitching Coach

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The Indians announced on Thursday that they’ve hired Carl Willis as the team’s new pitching coach. Willis will replace the highly regarded Mickey Callaway, who left the Indians organization this week to become the new manager of the Mets. Willis, of course, is a familiar name to Indians fans, having served as the pitching coach in Cleveland from 2003-09.

Following his initial run in Cleveland, Willis became a minor league pitching coordinator with the Mariners and, eventually, the pitching coach in Seattle. He’s spent the majority of the past three seasons as John Farrell’s pitching coach with the Red Sox, but Boston gave its coaching staff freedom to explore other opportunities when Farrell was dismissed from his post. Willis had also reportedly interviewed with for the Twins’ pitching coach vacancy before accepting the job with the Indians. As Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel points out (on Twitter), Willis has coached four pitchers during Cy Young seasons: CC Sabathia (2007), Cliff Lee (2008), Felix Hernandez (2010) and Rick Porcello (2016).

As a player, the 56-year-old Willis spent parts of nine seasons in the Majors, mostly with the Twins, from 1984-95. He made a pair of starts as a rookie for the Tigers in ’84 but worked exclusively as a reliever for the remainder of his career, ultimately tallying a 4.25 ERA in 390 innings at the big league level. Willis, nicknamed “The Big Train,” was one of Minnesota’s top relievers in their ’91 World Series Championship season, tossing 89 innings of 2.63 ERA ball.

AL Notes: Steinbrenner, Aylward, Quatraro, Cora

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Over at the Player’s Tribune, Edinson Volquez offers a heartfelt tribute to his fallen friend, Yordano Ventura. Volquez paints a vivid picture of a charmingly pesky young man who departed too soon. It’s a story that’s well worth your time.

Here are some notes from the American League:

  • Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner discussed the state of the franchise with Joel Sherman of the New York Post after his organization fell just shy of reaching the World Series. Steinbrenner declined to tip his hand with regard to plans for long-time GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi. It’s tough to imagine a change taking place with regard to the former, though as Sherman notes, there’s still some uncertainty in Girardi’s case. Steinbrenner also reiterated that the organization intends to dip under the luxury tax line, while noting the club “will be active in free agency, as we always are.”
  • Mariners executive VP of baseball operations Bob Aylward is retiring after a 42-year career in the game, per a team announcement. He helped transition the Orioles to Camden Yards and the M’s to Safeco Field, the team notes. Aylward will continue to work as a special consultant to the team in addition to maintaining a board role at ROOT Sports Northwest.
  • The Rays have hired Matt Quatraro as their new third-base coach, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (all links to Twitter). He had served as the Indians’ assistant hitting coach, making him the latest Cleveland coach to head elsewhere. Topkin adds that the Rays plan to hire a first base coach, with Rocco Baldelli moving to a somewhat different role on the staff.
  • As the Red Sox prepare for their first season under new skipper Alex Cora, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston examines what will make for a successful tenure. True authenticity is the touchstone for the youthful, first-time manager, Drellich concludes, both in setting expectations for players and in representing the team to the media.

Mets Hire Mickey Callaway As Manager

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4:49pm: The contract includes a team option for a fourth season, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter).

11:00am: The Mets have announced Callaway’s hiring. There’s a press conference set for Citi Field at 4pm ET today.

OCT. 23, 8:40am: The Mets are expected to announce Callaway’s hiring this afternoon at Citi Field, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post.

OCT. 22, 1:37pm: Callaway is taking the job, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets.

12:43pm: The Mets have offered their managerial job to Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The two sides are finalizing Callaway’s contract, Sherman adds (Twitter link). It’ll be a three-year deal, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports (on Twitter).

Mickey Callaway

The 42-year-old Callaway emerged as the top candidate for the job earlier Sunday, beating out Mets hitting coach Kevin Long, Mariners third base coach Manny Acta and White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing for the position. Callaway “stood out” from the rest during his interviews with Mets brass, Sherman tweets. The club’s hope is that Long will stay on as part of Callaway’s staff, per Sherman (on Twitter).

Callaway, who also drew interest from the manager-needy Phillies, developed an excellent reputation during his five-year run as the Indians’ pitching coach. In what will go down as Callaway’s final season on manager Terry Francona’s staff, the Indians boasted one of the most successful pitching staffs of all-time.

As was the case in Cleveland, Callaway – a major league pitcher from 1999-2004 – will have an opportunity to work with a slew of gifted hurlers in New York. Despite the immense talent on hand, though, the majority of Mets pitchers dealt with injuries and posted poor performances in 2017 during a 70-92 season that led to previous manager Terry Collins’ ouster. Aside from Jacob deGrom, who was his typical excellent self, none of the Mets’ top starters stayed healthy. Noah Syndergaard missed most of the season, while Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler mostly turned in ineffective showings when they were physically able to take the mound. Meanwhile, fellow starters Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Rafael Montero failed to distinguish themselves as rotation locks for 2018.

In addition to trying to turn around the fortunes of the Mets’ pitchers next season, Callaway will oversee a position player group that also had a less-than-ideal 2017. The Mets’ premier hitters, Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto, endured injury-shortened years, and the latter could miss a portion of next season after undergoing shoulder surgery in September. Still, the expectation is that those two will continue to serve as the Mets’ offensive centerpieces going forward. There are questions elsewhere, though, most of which center on the team’s infield alignment. Amed Rosario is a lock to start at shortstop, but it’s not yet clear who will earn the lion’s share of playing time at first, second or third base.

The Mets’ roster issues will be up to general manager Sandy Alderson to figure out in the coming months, but he’ll obviously work to put his first-time manager in position to succeed right away. Despite their miserable campaign, the Mets aren’t far removed from being one of the National League’s most formidable teams. They earned playoff berths in each of the two prior seasons, including a World Series appearance in 2015, and will attempt to return to relevance under Callaway in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Coaching/Managerial Notes: Nats, Cards, BoSox, Cubs, Tribe

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With the Nationals searching for a manager to replace the ousted Dusty Baker, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post weighs the pros and cons of the position. While Baker’s successor will inherit an elite collection of talent, it’s still going to be difficult for the Nats to find an ideal candidate, Janes opines, considering the high expectations and lack of stability that come with the role. Further, the roster may take a significant hit a year from now with both Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy scheduled to become free agents. General manager Mike Rizzo isn’t signed beyond 2018, either, which means Washington’s next skipper could have a different boss in 2019.

  • Former Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey has already interviewed for jobs with the Cardinals and Red Sox, and he’ll meet with the Cubs on Monday, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link). The Cubs are in need of a pitching coach after firing Chris Bosio on Saturday. If Hickey takes over for Bosio, he’ll reunite with Cubs manager and former Rays skipper Joe Maddon, who was Hickey’s boss in Tampa Bay from 2007-14. Hickey and Maddon remain close, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.
  • Along with Hickey, the Cardinals have identified their Triple-A pitching coach, Bryan Eversgerd, and Royals assistant to the general manager Cal Eldred as potential candidates for their major league opening, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Eversgerd could become the Redbirds’ bullpen coach if he doesn’t end up as their pitching coach, Goold writes. The Cardinals have been on the lookout for pitching and bullpen coaches since letting go of Derek Lilliquist and Blaise Ilsley, respectively, after the season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is looking for “a more modern approach”  than before and plans to hire a pitching coach or coordinator who’s fluent in advanced analytics, Goold relays. Notably, Mozeliak has spoken with former Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter about taking a job, but he’s only interested in a part-time position with the organization, Goold relays.
  • Curt Young is a candidate to succeed soon-to-be Mets manager Mickey Callaway as the Indians’ pitching coach, according to Robert Murray of FanRag. Young, who spent the past six years as the A’s pitching coach, worked under Indians manager Terry Francona when they were in Boston in 2011. The two are still “very good” friends, Murray notes.

AL Central Notes: Brantley, Royals, Jay

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News of Michael Brantley’s ankle surgery and four- to five-month recovery timeline raised questions as to whether the Indians will exercise his $12MM club option for the 2018 season. Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti addressed the issue with reporters today, stating that the team is still “working through” the decision about whether to pick up Brantley’s option (link via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). Antonetti also reemphasized that the team has “always envisioned [Brantley] being part of our organization, not only in 2018, but beyond.” Asked about potentially buying out Brantley’s option and negotiating an incentive-laden deal at a lower base rate, Antonetti declined to delve into hypothetical scenarios. Antonetti also noted that Brantley’s ankle didn’t trouble him when hitting, which is why he was included on the team’s ALDS roster.

A bit more from the AL Central…

  • Royals GM Dayton Moore is taking his front office on a four-day trip to Atlanta to study Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Moore feels strongly about not only educating a young front office that primarily grew up after the civil rights era on diversity, but also in studying Dr. King’s leadership, creative thinking and open-mindedness. Moore stressed to Dodd that he wants his staff to be naturally curious and open to viewing things through a different perspective. Said Moore: “When you’re in a leadership position and you’re expected to hire people, and you’re expected to embrace diversity and different culture and different races and all different walks of life, and people with great wisdom, and young people coming into the game with new ideas … if you really want to embrace and respect diversity, you need to study it.”
  • While there were reports that Twins prospect Tyler Jay, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2015 draft, would require thoracic outlet surgery earlier this summer, the left-hander is healthy and pitching well in the Arizona Fall League, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Jay did miss nearly three months of the season with neck and shoulder issues, Bollinger continues, but TOS was ruled out by doctors. Rather, Jay was diagnosed with a shoulder impingement and biceps tendinitis. The Twins have moved Jay to the bullpen for the foreseeable future and expect him to open next season in Double-A Chattanooga. ESPN’s Keith Law recently wrote that Jay has been “electric” in  the AFL. The 23-year-old could well emerge as a late-inning option in Minnesota next year.

Michael Brantley Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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The Indians announced on Thursday that outfielder Michael Brantley underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday to stabilize the ligaments in his ailing right ankle. Brantley is expected to require four to five months of recovery time before he’s cleared to resume baseball activities, per the announcement. The news of surgery comes as a fairly notable surprise, as the Indians had deemed Brantley healthy enough to carry on their postseason roster in the American League Division Series against the Yankees.

The shorter end of the provided timeline would put Brantley on track to be ready for baseball activity just before position players report to Spring Training, though if his recovery extends to the five-month mark or even a bit beyond, he’d only be ready for the tail end of Spring Training.

Brantley’s timeline is of particular note given that the Indians hold a club option over him for the 2018 season. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian points out (via Twitter), Brantley’s third-place finish in the 2014 American League MVP voting boosted the value of that option from $11MM to $12MM, though the $1MM buyout price remains unchanged. That option long appeared a virtual lock to be exercised, but Brantley’s durability issues in recent years will at least somewhat cloud the possibility given the team’s relatively tight payroll capacity. After the season, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters that the team has envisioned Brantley as part of the organization not only in 2018 but beyond (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal).

The 30-year-old Brantley suffered a severe shoulder injury while diving for a ball in left field late in the 2015 season and ultimately required a pair of shoulder surgeries. He was limited to just 11 games and 43 plate appearances in 2016, though he did return with a considerably healthier and more productive campaign in 2017. This past season, Brantley took the field for 90 games and hit .299/.357/.444 with nine homers and 11 steals in 375 plate appearances. His shoulder held up throughout the year, but he still missed nearly half the season due to the ankle issue that necessitated yesterday’s surgical procedure.

Certainly, the upside of a fully healthy Brantley is enormous. The former seventh-round pick broke out as one of baseball’s best pure hitters in 2014-15, and a one-year commitment worth $12MM would represent a clear bargain. However, the Indians already have a bit more than $73MM committed to next year’s payroll plus another roughly $33MM worth of projected arbitration salaries. Adding Brantley’s $12MM to the books would bring next year’s projected payroll to a fairly hefty $118MM before the team even began to address any offseason needs. Cleveland’s payroll this season opened at $124MM and came in around $133MM in total, but the team also had a bit of added revenue from last year’s deep World Series run — a benefit they obviously won’t enjoy this year.

[Related: Cleveland Indians payroll outlook]

Bastian has written that the Indians could explore the possibility of shifting Brantley from the outfield to first base, and doing so would cross off one notable offseason need while also allowing for the possibility of Jason Kipnis playing left field, Bradley Zimmer manning center, Jose Ramirez handling second base and Yandy Diaz slotting in at the hot corner. It would also mean less running and diving for Brantley, which could bode well for the health of both his ankle and his shoulder.

On the other hand, buying out Brantley’s option would leave the Indians with a bit more offseason maneuverability as they look to address potential holes at first base/DH and potentially in the corner outfield and the bullpen. The team has until three days after the conclusion of the World Series to ultimately make a call on Brantley’s option, but that decision certainly looks more complicated in light of a significant operation and a potential five-month recovery period.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Santana

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The Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees may well go down as Carlos Santana’s last hurrah in Cleveland, an organization he has been a member of since 2008. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is slated to reach free agency next month and has the credentials to rake in one of the richest paydays of the offseason. It’s possible Santana’s next contract will come from the Tribe, of course, but the small-market club is only a year removed from handing fellow first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion a substantial deal. The Indians could opt for a cheaper free agent to replace Santana, then, or perhaps they’ll turn to someone already on their talent-rich roster for aid.

Carlos Santana

If Santana has played his last game as an Indian, the Octagon client’s void will be a difficult one for the team to fill. Not only is he a switch-hitter who has consistently provided above-average offensive production from both sides of the plate dating back to his 2010 debut, but Santana has also been quite durable. Since 2011, his first full season, Santana has appeared in no fewer than 143 games in any individual campaign. He played in 154 games this year, giving him six seasons with at least 150 appearances.

The 2017 season, in which he earned $12MM to close out a bargain contract (six years, $33MM-plus), didn’t begin in ideal fashion for Santana. His production was down through June, somewhat mirroring his team’s win-loss output. The Indians sat a mildly disappointing 42-36 through the season’s first three months before going on a 60-24 tear to wind up as the AL’s top seed.

Santana played a key role in the Tribe’s memorable second-half run, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in July, 161 in August and 119 in September. For the year, he put up a 117 mark and slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and a .196 ISO across 667 plate appearances. Santana continued to show off his signature plate discipline along way, walking in 13.2 percent of trips and striking out only 14.1 percent of the time. It was the second straight year in which Santana struck out in under 15 percent of PAs, making him one of the few hitters trending in the right direction in a league with skyrocketing K totals.

Including his most recent output, Santana has batted .249/.365/.445 with a .196 ISO, to go with a 15.2 percent strikeout rate against a 17 percent walk mark, in his 4,782-PA career. And while Santana’s not known for his glove work, the former catcher excelled at first this season, setting career highs in games (140), Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Ultimate Zone Rating (4.8). Between his work at the plate and in the field, Santana was worth 3.0 or more fWAR for the second straight year and the fourth time in his career. He has never registered a worse fWAR than 2.1 during a full season and has accrued 23.0 in Cleveland.

To this point, Santana’s numbers look rather similar to the production former teammate Nick Swisher logged before signing a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians as a 32-year-old in January 2013. In 5,013 PAs from 2004-12, the switch-hitting Swisher racked up 25.0 fWAR and hit a Santana-like .256/.361/.467, adding a .211 ISO and solid walk and strikeout rates (13.3 percent and 21.1 percent, respectively). Of course, the Swisher experiment failed miserably in Cleveland, which is a reminder that even free agents with seemingly safe skillsets can rapidly decline.

Although the Swisher signing came almost a half-decade ago, something in the vicinity of his contract still looks like a fair benchmark for Santana’s next deal. While the Indians, Red Sox, Mariners and Angels are among a few potential fits, it’s worth noting that most teams were averse to spending big on first base/DH types a year ago. The leaguewide reluctance to splurge on those positions played a part in the Indians unexpectedly reeling in Encarnacion for a three-year, $65MM guarantee, and if it carries into this winter, it might enable them to re-up Santana at a reasonable rate. Further, it probably won’t help Santana’s cause that fellow first base options Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda and teammate Jay Bruce will join him in free agency after quality seasons of their own.

Hosmer and Santana are the class of the group and the only two who figure to garner qualifying offers, which could also drive down their appeal on the market. But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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