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Latest On Potential Nolan Arenado Trade

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8:24pm: Third baseman Mateo Gil will also be part of the Rockies’ return, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic tweet.

8:15pm: Left-hander Austin Gomber is one of the players who will go to Colorado, Goold tweets. Nightengale reported Friday that Gomber was likely going to be in the trade.

6:51pm: Colorado and St. Louis seem to be on the verge of a major trade centering on star Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, but it’s not yet clear whether the deal will go through as early as Monday night. The swap still hasn’t been submitted for approval to the union and the league office, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who adds that “it will take at least another day, if not longer” to become official. On the other hand, though, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that all parties could sign off on it sometime tonight.

Regardless of whether this trade takes place Monday, it does appear it’s going to happen. According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, the Rockies and Cardinals had “intense moments” during negotiations this past weekend, but the blockbuster is still likely to go through by Tuesday. Furthermore, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the Cardinals are optimistic the transaction will occur.

Because of the complicated financial hoops the teams have to jump through to complete this trade (Colorado is set to absorb $50MM of Arenado’s remaining money, some of which will be in deferrals), it remains unclear whom the Rockies will receive in return for the longtime face of their franchise. But Arenado – who has a no-trade clause – seems eager to head to St. Louis, as he has given his written consent for a trade to the Cardinals, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports. Arenado is in line to receive an extra year and another $15MM tacked on to the six seasons and $199MM on his Colorado contract if the Cards do acquire him.

The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

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Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media.  It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West.  The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year.  After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up.  Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs.  Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season.  Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward.  Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package.  From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons.  Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season.  One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field.  As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver.  It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019.  $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024.  Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season.  By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason.  An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever.  There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023.  The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

The Other Rockies’ Superstar Who Made St. Louis Home

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If the Cardinals are able to complete their acquisition of star third baseman Nolan Arenado – under the terms as we know them now – they’ll add the best defensive third baseman of his generation. Kyle Newman of the Denver Post pegs the Arenado deal as the biggest trade in Rockies’ franchise history. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong certainly sounds pleased, saying on MLB Network Radio today (via Twitter), “…having a guy like Arenado in our lineup is going to completely change the way pitchers look at us.”

Arenado’s trophy case is full: five All-Star nominations, four Silver Slugger awards, and a Gold Glove for every season in the Majors (eight). A career .293/.349/.541 hitter, Arenado has created 39.1 bWAR/32.3 fWAR with a solid 7.9 percent career walk rate and solid 15.0 percent career strikeout rate. Though 2020 was a down year offensively, he became one of the toughest hitters in the game to strikeout, doing so in only 10.0 percent of his plate appearances.

All that said, he would head to Busch Stadium III with the usual caveats of a player leaving Coors Field. Namely: can he hit outside of Coors?

Paul Goldschmidt can walk Arenado through the transition from face-of-the-franchise in the west to being just “one of the guys” crashing at Yadi Molina’s house. But to preview the shock-to-the-system Arenado may face taking his hacks so much closer to sea level, we can go a little further back to another Rockies’ superstar who went east for the latter half of his career: Matt Holliday.

Holliday averaged 154 wRC+ per season during his first five years at Coors Field, his age-24 to age-28 seasons (2004 to 2008). Over that same time span he posted 105 wRC+ on the road. For his part, Arenado is a career 128 wRC+ hitter at home and 108 wRC+ hitter away from Coors.

Visual learners can check this Fangraphs chart for his home/road splits by age, then do the same for Holliday. Holliday’s splits look nearly the same through age-30 before converging at the point in his career that Arenado faces now: 30 years-old and permanently changing his address from Denver to St. Louis.

As you can see in that chart, Holliday’s overall wOBA follows a fairly traditional aging curve. Playing at Coors Field, however, can warp the shape of that production. As this March article from the Athletic’s Nick Groke covers in detail, the Coors Field dilemma isn’t just about how fast the balls fly through Colorado’s thin air, but how much sharper the breaks appear to hitters on the road. As much as Coors helps a hitter’s numbers (more than a normal home split), playing away from Coors hurts (more than a normal road split).

To think in terms of wRC+, it might just be that the Arenado who arrives in St. Louis will no longer be a 128 wRC+ hitter at home and a 108 wRC+ hitter on the road – but he could still be a 118 wRC+ hitter overall.

Or at least, that was Holliday’s path. Over his seven years in St. Louis, his home/road splits stabilized. He would average 133 wRC+ on the road and 142 wRC+ per season at home. On the whole, he arguably became a better hitter with 133 wRC+ during his five seasons in Colorado compared to 139 wRC+ in his seven full seasons in St. Louis. Does that mean Arenado will do the same? Of course not. Just because Holliday stayed largely healthy and productive past his prime years doesn’t mean that Arenado will do the same.

Holliday and Arenado tracked mirroring paths to the Show-Me State. Holliday’s age-29 season was anomalous for his career in terms of the playing conditions – just like Arenado. Whereas Arenado had to deal with a 60-game season in a pandemic-wracked world, Holliday faced the equally jarring reality of moving from Coors Field to Oakland’s spacious Coliseum. I kid, but Holliday’s half-season in Oakland stands out as a singularly odd year on Holliday’s resume in terms of the conditions relative to the rest of his career. If Arenado stays in St. Louis the length of his contract, he’ll be in Cardinal red for seven seasons from age 30 to 36 – the exact length of stay Holliday enjoyed in the Gateway to the West.

On the other hand, they aren’t the exact same type of hitter. While both are right-handed sluggers, Holliday had a little more in common with Goldschmidt than Arenado. Holiday was a worm killer even in his era. As a Rockie, Holliday logged a 1.38 groundball-to-flyball rate, whereas Arenado’s 0.87 GB/FB rate reflects the fact that he hits the ball in the air more than Holliday ever did. Compared to the rest of the league, Holliday hit the ball on the ground more than the average player throughout his career. Arenado can’t even see him from so far down the other end of that spectrum.

Holliday sprayed the ball to all fields a little more than Arenado, who leans pull side with 41.8 percent pull percentage to 23.1 percent opposite field for his career. Theoretically, that could hurt Arenado, as Busch tends to be a good singles and triples park for righties while suppressing offense in most other regards, per Park Factors at Swish Analytics. At least he’ll have a shorter porch in left to target, for what that’s worth.

Will Arenado adapt to his new confines? Ask Holliday, who not only tread this path before but was teammates with Arenado in 2018. He offers nothing but praise, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Besides, Arenado’s glove should continue to be an exceptional asset. While age may diminish his abilities at the hot corner somewhat, he has a lot of wiggle room before even entering the stratosphere of any other third baseman outside, maybe, Matt Chapman. With DeJong on his left, he shouldn’t even face much of an adjustment there. DeJong may be one of the few defensive shortstops who can rival Trevor Story’s competence on that end.

Arenado is heading from an organization that has never won its division to one of the game’s premier, trademark franchises. He’s leaving the NL West, where the Dodgers and Padres are readying for what could be an epic divisional bloodbath – and he’s joining the NL Central, where contenders are being broken down and sold for parts. It might be a jarring move for Arenado, but he can always look back and take comfort in the fact that this trail has been blazed before – and it worked out quite well. Remember, it was only their second full season together that Holliday and the Cardinals won the World Series.

Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/29/21

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The latest minor transactions from around the game…

  • The Rockies have re-signed utilityman Chris Owings to a minor league deal, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 29-year-old slashed .268/.318/.439 with two home runs over 44 trips to the plate as a Rockie in 2020. In all, Owings – a former Diamondback, Red Sox and Royal – has hit .241/.285/.367 with 36 homers and 76 steals in 2,346 plate appearances as a major leaguer.
  • The Athletics have re-upped catcher Carlos Perez to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Perez will earn a $650K salary if he makes it to the majors. The 30-year-old appeared in the majors in each season from 2015-18, but he hasn’t gotten back to the bigs since then. A former Angel, Ranger and Brave, Perez has batted .215/.257/.319 with 11 home runs in 670 plate appearances.
  • The Pirates have outrighted outfielder Troy Stokes Jr. to Triple-A Indianapolis, per reports from Jake Crouse and PittsburghBaseball.com’s John Dreker. The team previously designated Stokes for assignment Jan. 24, less than two weeks after it claimed him from the Tigers via waivers. Stokes, who will turn 25 on Feb. 2, has batted .250/.351/.411 with 57 HRs and 129 steals in 2,355 PA at the minor league level.

Daniel Murphy Retires

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 National League Championship Series MVP Daniel Murphy is retiring from baseball after a 12-year Major League career, he tells SNY’s Andy Martino.

Daniel Murphy | Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

“This is a beautiful game, and I really just feel humbled and blessed that it let me jump on the ride for a little bit,” Murphy tells Martino. “It’s beautiful. It can teach you about so many things. And all I can say is, thank you.” Mets fans, in particular, will want to read Martino’s interview for dozens of quotes, stories and reflections on his time in New York, as well as additional thoughts from teammate and captain David Wright.

A 13th-round pick by the Mets back in 2006, Murphy made his MLB debut just two years later at the age of 23. He solidified a spot on the Mets’ roster with a strong showing in both 2008 and 2009, but a knee sprain late in Spring Training 2010 and a subsequent torn MCL suffered on a Triple-A rehab stint later that year wiped out his entire 2010 campaign.

Murphy returned to the field in 2011 and had his best year yet, hitting .320/.362/.448 in 423 trips to the plate. His offense over the next few years took a step back, but he settled in as an above-average contributor capable of seeing time at multiple positions. Late in the 2015 season, however, as the Mets were driving toward the postseason, Murphy took his game to new heights. He slugged 10 home runs after the All-Star break while hitting .285/.318/.500 through 280 trips to the plate, but he saved the best for a legendary postseason run that brought the Mets to the brink of a championship.

Thirty years old at the time, Murphy was a man on fire that October. He appeared in all 14 of the Mets’ games and posted a combined .328/.391/.724 batting line, belting seven home runs and a pair of doubles while scoring 13 runs and knocking in 11. Incredibly, Murphy homered in six consecutive playoff games during that Herculean performance — including a go-ahead, sixth inning shot of Zack Greinke in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS and one in all four games of the Mets’ NLCS sweep of the Cubs. Wright tells Martino that Murphy’s 2015 postseason was “one of the most impressive things I ever witnessed on a baseball field.”

Murphy parlayed that brilliant postseason effort into a three-year deal with the Nationals, and while the club didn’t win its World Series until after he’d departed, that was through no fault of Murphy’s. He had his best season in 2016, his first year with the Nats, hitting .347/.390/.595 en route to a second-place finish in National League MVP voting. He hit .329/.380/.550 in his two and a half seasons with the Nats before being traded to the Cubs (and continuing to rake) — more than justifying the $37.5MM price of his contract.

From there, Murphy would sign a two-year deal to serve as the Rockies’ primary first baseman, but injuries took their toll during his time in Colorado. Murphy suffered a significant fracture in his finger after just two games, and though he was expected to miss at least a month at the time, he returned to the lineup just shy of four weeks later. Murphy swung a hot bat early on, but it seemed clear that the hand was bothering him; his hard-hit rate and exit velocities dropped precipitously that year, and his power wasn’t close to its peak levels despite playing his home games at Coors Field. Murphy posted a .279/.328/.452 line on the whole that year, and he followed it up with a .236/.275/.333 showing in 40 games in 2020’s shortened schedule.

All told, Murphy is a three-time All-Star, NLCS MVP and two-time Silver Slugger with a second-place MVP finish on his resume. He played in a dozen MLB seasons, hitting a combined .296/.341/.455 with 1,572 hits, 178 home runs, 371 doubles, 29 triples, 68 stolen bases, 710 runs scored and 735 runs driven in. Murphy tacked on eight more home runs and an OPS just shy of 1.000 in 25 postseason games split between the Mets, the Nats and the Cubs.

Infield Notes: Phillies, Simmons, Wong, Tigers, Paredes

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The Phillies narrowed their focus on Andrelton Simmons before he signed with the Twins this afternoon, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Didi Gregorius remains in play to return, but he may not be so keen on another one-year deal. Regardless, the Phillies prefer not to move Jean Segura back to short, notes Lauber. Even with Gregorius more-or-less the only remaining starting shortstop on the market, Segura’s presence, as well as Scott Kingery, means they don’t have to panic on an overpay. Should they ultimately strike out on Gregorius, Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto lurk as free agents, or the Phils could turn to the trade market to make a play for either Trevor Story of the Rockies or Javier Baez of the Cubs. Neither club has seemed particularly likely to move their star shortstop, but Phillies’ president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski might be the guy to convince them. Let’s check in on some other infield news…

  • With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continued to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
  • The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is no harm in expanding the 21-year-old’s skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 (and Spencer Torkelson on his way to claim one of the infield corners,) it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

 

Shortstop Notes: Simmons, Story, Polanco

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The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

  • Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.
  • The Twins may be one of the mystery teams taking a look at Simmons. When asked by Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (video link) if Jorge Polanco would be their opening day shortstop, Twins GM Thad Levin said, “I think we look at our team and say Byron Buxton’s our opening day centerfielder, and Josh Donaldson’s our opening day third baseman – almost everyone else on our team has defensive flexibility. We view that as a huge boon to our team.” Wolfson notes that the Twins know the asking prices for free agent shortstops Simmons and Marcus Semien are keeping an eye on it.
  • To be clear, Levine in no way implied that Polanco would not be a big part of their team in 2021, only that they consider the defensive malleability of the current roster as one of their advantages – both in the market and on the ball field. By DRS, OAA, and UZR, Polanco has measured as a subpar defender at shortstop throughout his career, and the Twins may see value in moving him to second in order to upgrade the infield defense on the whole. More broadly, the Twins appear keen on making the “best” free agent deal they can find, regardless of position. If flexibility really is central to the Twins’ philosophy, that could help explain any reticence they might have about locking Nelson Cruz into the designated hitter spot . That said, it’s hard to imagine finding any player better at their position than Cruz was as their DH the last two seasons (163 wRC+).

West Notes: Rockies, Freeland, Angels, Suzuki, Ohtani

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Denver native Kyle Freeland was a revelation for the Rockies in his sophomore season, posting a 2.85 ERA/3.67 FIP over 202 1/3 innings. Two years later, however, and the Rockies have yet to discuss an extension with their homegrown star, writes the Athletic’s Nick Groke. Freeland’s 2018 was an almost as a magical affair, so starved is the Rockies franchise for a cornerstone rotation piece. The bubble burst in 2019, of course, as his run prevention numbers ballooned to a 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP. He found a middle ground over 70 2/3 innings in 2020, logging a 4.33 ERA/4.65 FIP with a 15.1 percent strikeout rate, 7.6 percent walk rate, and 51.5 percent groundball rate. Freeland agreed to a $5.025MM deal for 2021 on Friday, and he has two more seasons of arbitration before reaching free agency. Given the range of outcomes Freeland has already seen across four seasons, he’s likely to go year-to-year until reaching free agency after 2023. Let’s stay out west and check in with the Angels…

  • Kurt Suzuki had offers for more money, but he signed with the Angels for $1.5MM, per the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter). Suzuki was with the Braves when Angels’ GM Perry Minasian was an executive there, which certainly could have helped smooth negotiations. But Suzuki’s ties to California don’t end there. Had Suzuki any reservations, he surely could have reached out to Anthony Rendon, who bonded with Suzuki’s son while the two were teammates in Washington, writes Robert Collias of The Maui News. Not to mention, Suzuki’s a native of Hawaii, he won a College World Series playing for Cal State Fullerton, and he began his career playing in the bay for the A’s. At 37-years-old, Suzuki’s not going to be a 130-start catcher, and injuries have hampered his ability to control the run game, but he’s been an above-average bat by measure of wRC+ in each of the last four seasons. Not to mention, having been the trusted receiver of Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez the past two seasons, Suzuki no doubt has plenty of sage advice to impart to the Angels’ less experiences backstops about how to manage a ballgame.
  • The Angels came to terms with five of their six arbitration-eligible players before yesterday’s filing deadline, but they’re heading to a hearing with star two-way player Shohei Ohtani. As if arbitration hearings aren’t complicated enough, Ohtani’s two-way abilities coupled with his injury history make him a particularly thorny case. Ohtani requested a $3.3MM salary, while the Angels countered at $2.5MM, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. New GM Perry Minasian says the Angels will be a “file-and-go” team, also known as “file-and-trial,” meaning they don’t plan to continue negotiations after the filing deadline. Of course, even teams with this philosophy occasionally reach an agreement between the filing date and hearing.
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