Rockies’ Extension Offer To Jon Gray Was In $35-40MM Range
Two weeks ago, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported that the Rockies had made an unsuccessful extension offer to Jon Gray. Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of the Athletic shed a little more light on that effort, reporting that Colorado made a three-year offer in the $35-40MM range.
With extension overtures rejected, Gray is now set to hit the open market once the World Series wraps up this week. Groke and Sarris write that the Rox are likely to issue him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, which would entitle the club to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere. Qualified free agents have ten days to decide whether to accept or reject the QO, so Gray and his representatives at CAA Sports will have some time to gauge interest before making the call on whether to return to Denver for a strong one-year salary or reject in hopes of landing a stronger multi-year offer.
Gray will be one of the trickier evaluations for teams looking through the market for free agent starters. The right-hander has two seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA on his resume, no small feat for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. Outside of a terrible eight-start showing during last year’s shortened season, Gray has regularly posted strikeout rates a tick or two above the league average for starters. He’s put up similarly solid walk and ground-ball marks in recent years, and his 2021 campaign was largely par for the course.
Over 149 frames, Gray pitched to a 4.59 ERA with a slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout percentage and a 9% walk rate that’s a bit north of the league mark. Gray’s 11% swinging strike rate was almost exactly league average, while his 48.4% grounder percentage was a few points above par. That’s solid mid-rotation production, and there’s an argument to be made that he could yet have untapped upside.
A former #3 overall draft choice, Gray averaged 94.9 MPH on his heater. He backs that up with a slider that typically generates plenty of swings and misses. Gray will be entering his age-30 season, so rival clubs will surely be intrigued about the potential that power arsenal could wield outside of the league’s toughest environment for pitchers.
That said, there’s an argument that Gray has been less adversely effected by Coors Field than most. As Groke and Sarris explore in a piece that’ll be of interest to Rockies’ fans or those more generally interested in pitching, Gray’s primary combination of a low-spin fastball and slider seems most resistant to high altitude’s impact on pitch movements. Like any Rockies’ pitcher, Gray still has to contend against a home park that props up fly ball distances and has an expansive outfield (thus increasing the rate of hits allowed on balls in play), but his results may not be as inflated by the environment as those of some of his teammates. His ERA at home this year (4.02) was more than a full run lower than his road mark (5.22), in fact, although his home/road strikeout and walk splits were virtually identical.
Teams will be tasked with placing Gray amongst the third tier of free agent starters. Eduardo Rodríguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Matz and Alex Wood are among the other mid-rotation options who’ll be available to clubs this winter. There figures to be quite a bit of variability among the league’s 30 clubs as to how they’d arrange that group on preference lists.
Of course, Gray could yet return to Colorado, whether by accepting a QO or agreeing to a multi-year free agent deal. Gray and the Rockies expressed mutual interest in an extension on multiple occasions over the past few months, and the front office didn’t move him at this past summer’s trade deadline. The Rox have already hammered out multi-year deals with rotation mate Antonio Senzatela (buying out his final two years of arbitration and extending their window of club control by an additional four seasons) and fellow impending free agent C.J. Cron. With the club planning to increase player payroll over the next two years, it stands to reason they’ll remain involved in the market for Gray as well.
Rockies To Promote Darryl Scott To Pitching Coach
OCTOBER 26: Steve Foster is set to assume a similar role to the team’s now-vacant director of pitching position tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Further coaching changes are also in the works, as the Rockies are parting ways with assistant hitting coach Jeff Salazar and Major League coach Tim Doherty.
OCTOBER 25: The Rockies are promoting bullpen coach Darryl Scott to pitching coach, reports Nick Groke of the Athletic. He’ll take the place of Steve Foster, who is stepping down to spend more time with his family. Groke adds that some in the organization hope Foster could still assume the director of pitching operations role that became available when Mark Wiley retired over the weekend.
Scott has spent the past two seasons leading the Colorado bullpen. He’d spent more than a decade prior in the organization in various capacities, serving as a minor league coach and as the club’s minor league pitching coordinator. The 53-year-old also briefly appeared in the majors as a player, pitching for the 1993 Angels.
Foster had been Colorado’s pitching coach for the past seven seasons, taking over the role during the 2014-15 offseason. Also a former big league hurler — he pitched for the Reds from 1991-93 — the 57-year-old Foster has been the pitching coach for Bud Black’s entire managerial tenure in Colorado so far.
Evaluating Rockies’ pitchers is challenging, given the high level of difficulty succeeding at Coors Field. The staff’s 4.91 ERA over Foster’s tenure is second-highest leaguewide, but park-adjusted metrics have pegged the pitching staff as closer to middle of the pack over the past few years. Players like Germán Márquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland have all flashed impact potential at times, but only Márquez has settled in as a consistent top-of-the-rotation arm.
Regardless of whether Foster remains in the organization, it now seems Colorado will need to fill at least one vacancy on the coaching staff. Presumably, Black and general manager Bill Schmidt will now embark on a search for Scott’s replacement in the bullpen.
Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies
Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.
There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.
Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.
Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.
Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.
That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.
As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.
Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.
That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.
Organizational Notes: Wiley, Rockies, Padres, Rays, Prieto
Rockies director of pitching operations Mark Wiley is retiring, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. Wiley has worked in his current position since 2012, though he previously worked for Colorado’s organization as a player personnel director (in 2000) and as a front office assistant (2006-07). Wiley might be best known for his seven stints as a big league pitching coach, serving in the role on two separate occasions with each of the Orioles, Indians, and Marlins, and coaching once with the Royals.
All in all, the 73-year-old Wiley has been in baseball for 52 years in many different roles. Apart from his pitching coach gigs and his three jobs with the Rockies, Wiley has also worked as a scout, a minor league manager and coach, special assistant to former Marlins GM Michael Hill, and he had an 11-year playing career that included 21 Major League games. We at MLBTR wish Wiley all the best in retirement, and congratulate him on a fine career.
More on other organizational items….
- While many experienced former managers have been connected to the Padres‘ search for a new skipper, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the team has “at least inquired about the interest of at least one former player working as a college coach, multiple former players currently on major league staffs and at least one longtime player working in television.” There was some sense that the Padres might hire a seasoned manager after GM A.J. Preller’s first two hires (Jayce Tingler and Andy Green) were running a big league club for the first time, yet team chairman Peter Seidler has said that experience is again not a prerequisite for the job this time around.
- The Rays are installing Chris Prieto as the team’s new first base coach, according to Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. Ozzie Timmons will move over to become the full-time assistant hitting coach, after splitting time between assistant hitting duties and first base duties. Prieto is a veteran of six seasons on the Mariners’ coaching staff from 2014-19, working as Seattle’s first base coach in 2018 and the third base coach in 2019. For the last two years, Prieto has been working with the Rays as an outfield/baserunning coordinator in Tampa’s farm system.
Rockies Outright Four Players
The Rockies announced that four players — infielders Josh Fuentes and Rio Ruiz and right-handers Yency Almonte and Tommy Doyle — have cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Albuquerque. The moves bring Colorado’s 40-man roster tally down to 35, although the Rox will have to reinstate four players from the 60-day injured list before the start of the offseason.
Fuentes has appeared in the majors in each of the last three seasons, garnering his most significant playing time in 2021. The 28-year-old tallied 284 trips to the plate this year, but he hit just .225/.257/.351 with seven homers despite playing his home games at Coors Field. Fuentes hasn’t performed well at the big league level, but he’s a career .291/.329/.489 hitter over parts of three years at Triple-A.
Ruiz, 27, was once a fairly well-regarded prospect. He’s gotten to the majors in each of the last six years but has never hit at a particularly high level. The left-handed hitter got regular run with the Orioles from 2019-21, opening this past season as Baltimore’s starting second baseman. But he managed just a .220/.292/.380 line with the O’s before being let go.
Colorado claimed Ruiz off waivers in May, and he stuck on the 40-man roster for the entire season. He only picked up 40 big league plate appearances, spending most of his time in Albuquerque. Ruiz is a .270/.337/.423 hitter in parts of five Triple-A campaigns, including a .304/.361/.496 mark with the Isotopes this past season.
Almonte, also 27, has pitched for Colorado in each of the last four years. He worked to a 2.93 ERA with a huge 56.3% ground-ball rate in 27 2/3 innings in 2020, but the wheels fell off this year. Over 47 2/3 frames, Almonte managed just a 7.55 ERA with worse than average strikeout (21.7%), walk (13.4%) and grounder (41.9%) percentages.
Doyle made his MLB debut in 2020, getting a three-game cameo. He didn’t pitch in the big leagues this past season, instead spending almost the entire year on the minor league injured list. The 25-year-old still has just 11 2/3 innings above A-ball in his professional career — 2 1/3 MLB frames in 2020 and 9 1/3 innings with Double-A Hartford in 2021.
Fuentes, Ruiz and Almonte have all appeared in seven-plus minor league seasons. They’ll all qualify for minor league free agency this winter, assuming the Rockies don’t pivot and reselect them back onto the 40-man. Doyle does not have the requisite service time to reject an outright assignment, so he’ll stick in the organization. He’ll presumably get a Spring Training invitation in 2022 and look to pitch his way back onto the roster.
Latest On Rockies’ Offseason Strategy
It wasn’t that long ago that many thought Jon Gray‘s days in Colorado were over. In July. With the team outside the playoff hunt, armchair wisdom suggested trading Gray at the deadline, but all accounts suggest they were more than comfortable keeping the big righty in Denver. He finished the year with a 4.59 ERA/4.22 FIP in 29 starts covering 149 innings. It wasn’t a stellar year, but it might be enough to leave other clubs curious about what he might be capable of outside of Colorado.
Inside Colorado, GM Bill Schmidt is now fully installed in his role, so there’s little reason to think his position has changed. They’d love to have Gray back. Gray, of course, will be a free agent the day after the World Series. The Rockies have no more a hold on Gray than the other 29 teams in the league (assuming they don’t extend a qualifying offer). There are rumblings of a contact extension being on the table, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke. Still, any agreement at this juncture would be surprising.
In terms of the rest of the roster, Schmidt’s recent comments provided by Groke suggest he may turn initially to the trade market, which would be a departure from normal operating procedure under former GM Jeff Bridich. If the Rockies do decide to dangle some of their players, Groke suggests Raimel Tapia, Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker, Daniel Bard, Ryan Vilade, and Grant Lavigne as affordable assets that might draw attention. Comments from the club last season suggested they plan to build around Tapia and Ryan McMahon, so it would be a little surprising to see one of them move, even if there’s wisdom in exploring the options.
Rodgers, likewise, has hung around for long enough waiting to replace Trevor Story. The 25-year-old managed enough offensively to suggest he might be ready for that role. That said, 100 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR in 415 plate appearances doesn’t scream superstar. The bigger question with Rodgers might be his position, as he may no longer be ticketed for shortstop. Still, he’s looking like a plus power bat at the keystone, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. That’s a fine future for Rodgers, but it does limit his potential future value.
Schmidt, of course, already made his first couple of big moves this winter, signing Antonio Senzatela and C.J. Cron to extensions. Those moves lend credence to Groke’s suggestions above to dangle the organization’s other first baggers like Welker and Lavigne on the trade block, despite their youth. Cron’s deal was just for two years, but it does provide the team with some surplus from which they might be comfortable dealing.
Quick Hits: Hess, Washington, Padres, Black, Strom
Rays reliever David Hess announced today (via his Twitter feed) that he will be undergoing chemotherapy after doctors discovered a cancerous germ cell tumor in his chest. “As we’ve started on this journey we’ve had people circle around us and shower love, prayers, and support in ways that have been so amazing I don’t think we can even put into words how grateful my family and I are,” Hess wrote. “As we get ready to go into this treatment time, we are confident this will all be gone from my body and I’ll be back doing what I love on a baseball field soon and be healthy while doing it.” We at MLBTR wish all the best to Hess in his treatment and we’re hoping for a full and quick recovery.
More from around the league…
- Braves third base coach Ron Washington can’t interview with other teams about managerial openings until Atlanta’s postseason run is over, so Washington told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that he has yet to hear from the Padres or Mets. Washington is happy in his current position but admitted he would like to “get back in the room” for a second stint managing a big league club. It’s possible Atlanta’s playoff run could interfere with Washington’s job prospects, as if the Braves were to advance deep into the World Series, the Padres and Mets might potentially hire new managers before Washington becomes available to talk.
- If not Washington, could the Padres turn to another veteran skipper in Rockies manager Bud Black? The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders is doubtful, writing that “realistically…I don’t think the Rockies would let go of Black and I don’t know if [Padres president of baseball operations A.J.] Preller would even consider him as a candidate.” After all, Preller did fire Black back in 2015, ending Black’s previous nine-year run as the Padres’ manager. Black is under contract to the Rockies through the 2022 season, though team president Greg Feasel recently stated that the Rox had yet to speak to Black about a contract extension. The Padres’ search for a new manager has thus far connected them to several experienced former bench bosses, and Black would certainly fit the description after 14 seasons managing in San Diego and Colorado.
- Longtime Astros pitching coach Brent Strom told FOX 26’s Mark Berman that this could be his final year, though he and his wife will discuss the situation once the Astros season is over. “I’ve been doing it a long time. I’m going to be 73 years old…and so there’s a lot of life out there besides baseball that I might want to experience, but I haven’t made any decisions as of yet,” Strom said. Strom has been the Astros’ pitching coach since the 2013-14 offseason, the latest stop in almost 40 years’ worth of work in baseball as a coach and as a minor pitching instructor and coordinator for six different organizations.
Rockies Extend Antonio Senzatela
October 6: According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Senzatela can increase his annual salary by meeting thresholds of innings pitched. By reaching 200 innings in 2022, he will add $1MM to his salary in each season from 2024 to 2027, and the same applies for 2023. That means Senzatela has the potential to add $8MM to his payout.
October 5: The Rockies announced this afternoon they’ve agreed to a five-year contract extension with right-hander Antonio Senzatela. He’ll be guaranteed $50.5MM, and the deal also contains a club option for the 2027 season. Senzatela, a client of Republik Sports, was headed into his second trip through the arbitration process and had previously been under club control through the 2023 season.
It’s a rather surprising first move for newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt, who shed the “interim” tag from his title over the weekend. Senzatela has, at times, looked the part of a durable innings eater with a grounder-heavy approach, but he also possesses one of Major League Baseball’s lowest strikeout rates and was only in line for a modest raise on this season’s $3MM salary in arbitration. He’ll now earn $7.25MM in both 2022 and 2023 before taking home $12MM annually from 2024-26. The 2027 option is valued at $14MM.
Senzatela, 26, has been a durable rotation cog for Colorado over the past few seasons, although it’s worth noting that as recently as 2019, he was optioned to Triple-A and finished the season with an ERA just shy of 7.00. The right-hander was hammered for a 10.34 ERA from July through September that season but has enjoyed much more success since returning.
In 40 starts and 230 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, he’s worked to a combined 4.11 earned run average — albeit with a 15% strikeout rate that ranks 188th of the 198 starting pitchers to have thrown at least 100 innings in that time. Senzatela ranks on the opposite end of the pendulum with the 15th-best walk rate in that time (5.1%) and the 22nd-ranked ground-ball percentage (51.1%).
Clearly, the Rockies are betting that he’ll be able to continue to suppress runs at a roughly average rate, leaning heavily on his blend of strong control and knack for inducing grounders. The challenge for Senzatela will lie partly in his ability to reduce the rate at which he allows hard contact. Of the 98 qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, Senzatela’s 90.6 mph average opponents’ exit velocity was sixth-highest. That’s driven in part by a propensity to allow hard contact on the ground; his exit velocity on ground-balls is fourth-highest in MLB, whereas on balls in the air it’s a slightly less-alarming 27th.
Historically speaking, there’s ample precedent for pitchers in Senzatela’s service bracket — more than four years, less than five — signing a deal in this range. Kyle Hendricks‘ 2019 extension with the Cubs, a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM, is the most recent and closest parallel.
Notably, Hendricks also largely goes against today’s archetypical strikeout machine. He relies more on weak contact and pinpoint command to offset one of the game’s slowest fastballs, however, whereas Senzatela’s power sinker hovers in the 95 mph range but simply doesn’t miss many bats.
While both pitchers are grounder-heavy command artists, Hendricks had a vastly superior track record that included a prior third-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. He’d already agreed to a $7.405MM salary for the forthcoming 2019 season, and Senzatela would’ve been hard-pressed to earn a second-time arbitration salary in that range. If Hendricks was indeed cited as a point of comparison in negotiations, it’s a strong deal for Senzatela’s camp to have come close to that same guarantee with a demonstrably worse statistical platform.
That said, while the price point may be a bit of a surprise, the Rockies surely place extra value on pitchers who’ve shown the ability — and the desire or willingness — to pitch effectively at Coors Field. Persuading any free-agent starting pitcher to sign on for multiple years pitching at altitude is a difficult endeavor. Beyond that, the Rockies have a fairly weak farm system, so trading for a controllable pitcher is easier said than done. Senzatela has had his share of success in recent seasons and, if he can continue on the same trajectory he showed from 2020-21, the deal will look reasonable enough.
From a payroll vantage point, the Rox can certainly afford the deal as structured. Colorado had just under $47MM in guaranteed salary on the 2022 books, and Senzatela’s salary bumps them to a bit more than $54MM. Charlie Blackmon will tack on another $21MM when he exercises a player option for the 2022 campaign, but even that subsequent $75-76MM is nowhere near the franchise-record $145MM payroll. Colorado is reported to be in agreement on an extension with first baseman C.J. Cron as well, but that shouldn’t drive up the bottom-line payroll in 2022 by too much.
Moreover, by the time Senzatela’s salary jumps to the $12MM range, the Blackmon contract will be off the books. The Rockies didn’t have a single guaranteed salary on the 2024 payroll prior to this long-term deal, though a $16MM club option on top pitcher German Marquez appears likely to be exercised, barring a significant injury or decline. An annual $12MM salary for an innings eater of Senzatela’s nature isn’t an egregious price to pay, although the downside with him is greater than with other arms who’ve signed in this price range — and it’s a bit surprising to see that price tag agreed upon so far in advance.
At the end of the day, the Senzatela extension serves as another reminder that the Rockies don’t view themselves nearly as far from contending as their 74-win season and -57 run differential would suggest. Colorado bucked conventional wisdom at the deadline when opting to hang onto Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Daniel Bard, Cron and other trade candidates, ultimately only moving Mychal Givens despite being buried in the division and lacking long-term control of those players.
Owner Dick Monfort has repeatedly stated in the past that he believes the current Rockies core is capable of contending, although that core will likely be turning over at least to an extent with the expected departure of Story. Competing in a division with the two best teams of 2021, plus a flawed-but-talented Padres squad in win-now mode would appear a daunting task for most teams, but the Rockies operate on an island and, in many ways, prefer their own unorthodox methodologies to more popular industry trends. The group of Marquez, Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Gray (if he’s re-signed) and Austin Gomber certainly could form the nucleus of a competitive pitching staff, but the Rox are thin on depth behind that quintet and will need another year of uncanny health in the rotation just to repeat their 2021 output. Some additional roster augmentation will be needed this offseason.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the agreement and the deal’s terms.
Rockies Extend C.J. Cron
The Rockies are keeping their first baseman in the fold, announcing an agreement with C.J. Cron on a two-year contract extension. The deal guarantees the Moye Sports Associates client a total of $14.5MM.
It’s the second extension of the day for the Rox, who also just locked up righty Antonio Senzatela on a five-year contract. Unlike Senzatela, who was already under team control for two more seasons via arbitration, Cron was slated to become a free agent after the World Series. The two sides had publicly expressed interest in working out a reunion, however, and it seems they’ll do so before Cron ever hits the open market and hears from other clubs.
The extension will bring Cron some stability after pinballing around the league in recent seasons. The former Angels first-rounder was traded to the Rays in the 2017-18 offseason, claimed off waivers by the Twins in the 2018-19 offseason, signed by the Tigers (after being non-tendered by Minnesota) in the 2019-20 offseason, and signed a minor league with Colorado this past offseason.
That minor league pact proved to be an overwhelming bargain for the Rox, as Cron rebounded from last year’s season-ending knee surgery and raked at a .281/.375/.530 clip with 28 home runs — the second-highest total of his career. That said, there are some red flags to consider as well.
Beyond the fact that Cron will turn 32 in January, he displayed some eye-opening splits. The overwhelming amount of Cron’s damage came at Coors Field, where he batted .326/.412/.661 as opposed to .235/.337/.397 on the road. He was also, as is typically the case, much more productive against left-handed pitching (.311/.393/.583) than against right-handed opponents (.269/.368/.503). The Rockies clearly weren’t concerned by the splits, however, and for a fairly modest price tag of $7.25MM per season, that’s a defensible stance. Cron’s numbers against right-handed opponents, after all, were still strong. And while the home/road splits are glaring, he still managed an above-average on-base percentage on the road while maintaining a respectable isolated power mark.
That increased walk rate, it should be noted, is perhaps the biggest driving factor of this deal. Prior to the 2020 season, Cron had walked in just 5.5% of his career plate appearances. He walked nine times in just 52 plate appearances with Detroit before sustaining a season-ending knee injury, however, and the newfound patience largely carried over into the 2021 season. This year’s 11% walk rate effectively doubled his career mark and served to dramatically boost Cron’s offensive floor in the process. So long as the newfound plate discipline is here to stay, Cron ought to be a convincingly above-average bat over the next two seasons, even if he’s more of an average hitter on the road and a prodigious slugger at home.
Cron, like Senzatela, will be paid $7.25MM in each of the next two seasons. It’s a reasonable price to pay for a solid power bat who rates as an average or better defender at his position. From a bigger-picture standpoint, the Rockies now have about $61MM on next year’s payroll — a figure that’ll jump to about $82MM, assuming Charlie Blackmon exercises a $21MM player option. That’ll leave a pronounced gap between the currently projected payroll and the franchise-record $145MM mark, giving the Rockies some leeway to add to the roster under newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt.
Given the manner in which the open market has increasingly devalued free agents on the wrong side of 30, specifically first-base-only sluggers — there’s a reason Cron was effectively non-tendered twice, after all — one could argue that the Rockies shouldn’t have jumped the market. Taking a more patient approach could well have presented them with a “better” deal on a comparable player, or perhaps even a lower price tag on Cron. At the same time, they’ve now secured some cost certainty and ensured they’ll hang onto the specific person and teammate they clearly were targeting.
The broader issue for the Rockies will be one of how they supplement this roster next year. Extending Senzatela and Cron figure to be well-received moves among the Rockies’ fanbase, but all those moves accomplish for now is taking steps to ensure this same 74-win group can stay together. With Gray and Trevor Story both still ticketed for free agency — and Story widely expected to depart — the Rockies will need to add multiple pieces and/or see several big strides from young players just to get back to this year’s level of play. Actually improving the product and, more improbably, piecing together a contender that can jostle with the two best teams of the 2021 season (Giants and Dodgers) will require substantially more effort from Schmidt and his lieutenants.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rockies and Cron were in active extension discussions. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the two sides were in agreement. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the contract terms.
Latest On Jon Gray
The Rockies have already begun their offseason work in earnest, hammering out contract extensions with Antonio Senzatela and C.J. Cron this afternoon. The front office has previously expressed interest in extending impending free agent Jon Gray as well, and that figures to be one of the next steps on the team’s priority list.
Colorado is still looking to work out a long-term deal with Gray, according to reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. However, Feinsand hears there hasn’t been any recent progress in talks with Gray’s representatives at CAA Sports.
The third overall pick in the 2013 draft, Gray has been a career-long Rockie. He broke into the majors in 2015 and has been a consistent member of the rotation over the years since, flashing mid-rotation ability at his best. The right-hander posted a sub-4.00 ERA with above-average strikeout rates in both 2017 and 2019, no small feat given that he calls Coors Field home.
Gray’s shortened 2020 campaign didn’t go according to plan. His velocity dropped two miles per hour and he was knocked around for a 6.69 ERA over eight starts before ending the year on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. Gray entered 2021 as a bit of a question mark, but he bounced back from the down year to put together a nice season.
Over 149 innings, Gray worked to a 4.59 ERA with strikeout and walk rates (24.4% and 9%, respectively) both marginally higher than the league average. He racked up ground-balls at a strong 48.8% clip and induced swinging strikes on a solid 11% of his offerings. Gray also regained a tick on his average fastball after last season’s velocity dip, a trend that held even after he missed a bit of time in early September due to forearm tightness.
As today’s Senzatela extension demonstrates, the Rox front office is particularly keen on keeping pitchers who’ve demonstrated an ability to get outs in Denver’s high-altitude environment. Gray has put together strong home results (better than those he’s posted on the road, in fact) over the past couple seasons. Dating back to the start of 2019, he owns a 4.39 ERA/4.33 FIP over 178 1/3 innings at Coors Field. He’s allowed just 1.3 HR/9 and a .278 opponents’ batting average on balls in play in that time, avoiding the ills that plague most pitchers in that ballpark.
Of course, that Gray has had success at Coors Field doesn’t inherently mean he’ll continue to do so. But there’s at least proof of concept for the front office, and newly-minted general manager Bill Schmidt has seemingly made a concerted effort to keep the core of the current roster in the fold. The Rockies held onto Gray at the trade deadline, and while they could make him a qualifying offer and allow him to depart in free agency were he to decline, it seems likelier they’ll try to hammer out an extension before Gray ever hits the open market.