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Dallas Keuchel

Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers

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Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):

  • Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.

Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):

  • Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.

Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):

  • Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.

CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):

  • It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.

Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):

  • The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):

  • Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.

Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):

  • As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.

Braves To Start Dallas Keuchel On Friday

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JUNE 20: Keuchel will start for the Braves on Friday, O’Brien tweets. The club has optioned righty Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett to clear a 25-man roster spot for Keuchel.

JUNE 17: The Braves plan for left-hander Dallas Keuchel to make his season debut Friday against the division-rival Nationals, according to manager Brian Snitker (via David O’Brien of The Athletic and Mark Bowman of MLB.com).

Keuchel has pitched two minor league tuneup games since he ended his protracted trip to free agency with a one-year, $13MM agreement on June 7. The first, in which Keuchel threw seven shutout, one-hit innings at the Single-A level, went swimmingly. Keuchel added another seven frames in a Double-A start Saturday, though he allowed 11 hits and three earned runs. However, the Braves are “encouraged” by the fact that Keuchel threw 101 pitches in that outing, Bowman writes.

Although the reigning NL East champion Braves lead their division by 2 1/2 games this year, they’ve gotten to this point with middling starting pitching. In need of a complement to superb rookie Mike Soroka, the club made a notable in-season commitment to the 31-year-old Keuchel, who often excelled in Houston over the previous half-decade and has a 2015 AL Cy Young Award on his resume.

Keuchel is now about to join a Braves rotation which, aside from Soroka, isn’t the most trustworthy group. Julio Teheran has enjoyed a major bounce-back year in terms of bottom-line results, but as always, his peripherals aren’t as encouraging as his ERA. Meantime, Max Fried has cooled off since a great start, Mike Foltynewicz has been surprisingly poor after what looked like a breakout 2018, and Kevin Gausman (now injured), Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson haven’t offered solutions over a combined 22 starts.

Fortunately for Atlanta, Keuchel’s not the only reinforcement on the way. Injured center fielder Ender Inciarte – out since May 15 with a lumbar strain – has been cleared for baseball activities and could embark on a rehab assignment next week, per Bowman. However, as Bowman notes, Inciarte will not reclaim the starting job in center field when he returns to the majors.

The Braves can’t sit rookie standout left fielder Austin Riley, who will continue to line up alongside Inciarte’s center field replacement, Ronald Acuna Jr., and right fielder Nick Markakis. The defensively adept Inciarte had center on lockdown in Atlanta from 2016 until landing on the IL this year, but his injury and subpar start over the first month and a half of this season opened the door for the hot-hitting Riley.

Quick Hits: Keuchel, Red Sox, Moncada, Castellanos

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After signing a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves last week, left-hander Dallas Keuchel made his first minor league tuneup with their Single-A affiliate Monday. Unsurprisingly, the accomplished Keuchel looked too advanced for the level, throwing seven shutout innings and 77 pitches of one-hit, one-walk ball with nine strikeouts. The soft-tossing 31-year-old’s fastball sat in the high 80s and maxed out at 89, per Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Afterward, Keuchel suggested he could return to the majors following one more minor league start. Braves manager Brian Snitker said that “we’ll talk to [Keuchel] to see where he’s at” after he takes the mound one more time. Barring setbacks, though, Keuchel does seem likely to end up in Atlanta after that outing.

More from around the majors…

  • Red Sox pitching prospect Darwinzon Hernandez will make his first career start Tuesday against the Rangers, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com relays. MLB.com ranks the southpaw as the Red Sox’s best pitching prospect and No. 3 overall farmhand. The 22-year-old Hernandez got his first taste of the majors earlier this season with 2 1/3 scoreless innings out of Boston’s bullpen. Hernandez has been a mixed bag in 2019 at the Double-A level, where he has averaged a hefty 13.17 strikeouts per nine but has offset that with an untenable walk rate (7.14 BB/9) and a 5.13 ERA in 40 1/3 frames.
  • White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada left the team’s game Monday with upper back tightness, James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to tweet. Moncada’s day-to-day, though he seems optimistic it’s not any kind of serious injury (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). The 24-year-old has arguably been the White Sox’s foremost position player this season, having slashed .295/.348/.506 (128 wRC+) with 12 home runs and 2.1 fWAR in 274 plate appearances.
  • With the Tigers out of contention and their top hitter, Nicholas Castellanos, not signed past this season, he has largely checked out from a leadership role, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press observes. However, that doesn’t mean Castellanos isn’t working hard. As Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic explains (subscription required), Castellanos has made a real effort to ameliorate his much-maligned defense. A former high school shortstop, Castellanos struggled at the outset of his big league career at third and has continued to have difficulty since moving to the corner outfield in 2017. Castellanos’ defense still isn’t a plus, as Stavenhagen notes, but the metrics have liked the 27-year-old’s work better during his platform season. So has manager Ron Gardenhire, who told Stavenhagen, “He’s on a mission to become a good outfielder, and I think he’s made a ton of improvement.”

Braves Sign Dallas Keuchel

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FRIDAY, 9:07pm: The Braves have announced the agreement. To make room for Keuchel on their 40-man roster, they transferred reliever Darren O’Day to the 60-day injured list. Atlanta plans to activate Keuchel after he makes two starts in the minors, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets.

6:32pm: Keuchel has passed a physical, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). The signing is expected to be announced tonight.

THURSDAY, 9:02pm: Keuchel’s contract is indeed for one year, reports Yahoo’s Tim Brown (Twitter link). He’ll be paid $13MM between now and season’s end, which is a bit more than the $11.16MM he’d have made on a prorated deal worth the same amount as the $17.9MM qualifying offer. (ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that his base salary is technically around $20MM, and the $13MM represents the prorated version of that sum.) Keuchel will take a physical tomorrow, and he’ll jump right into the fray with Triple-A Gwinnett when he makes a start there on Saturday.

8:18pm: The Braves have agreed to terms with left-hander Dallas Keuchel, reports David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’s “likely” a one-year deal, O’Brien adds. Keuchel is represented by the Boras Corporation.

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As was the case with Craig Kimbrel, Keuchel will see his prolonged free-agent saga come to a close just days after the draft-pick compensation that has hung over his head was lifted. The terms of the contract will surely be only a fraction of what the former Cy Young winner had eyed when rejecting a $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Astros back in November, but but a short-term arrangement will allow Keuchel the opportunity to once again test free agency — this time without the burden of a qualifying offer and likely with some lower expectations; Keuchel and Boras reportedly sought a contract of five years and more than $100MM in the early stages of free agency.

Keuchel, 31, has seen his results tail off since his brilliant Cy Young campaign back in 2015, but he’s still a quality arm who should provide some much-needed stability to a Braves rotation that hasn’t functioned according to plan (or anywhere close) in 2019. Top starter Mike Foltynewicz missed several weeks to open the season and has struggled considerably in his return from the injured list, while Sean Newcomb has been moved to the bullpen and Kevin Gausman is lugging around a 6.15 ERA. Julio Teheran has posted solid bottom-line results, but fielding-independent pitching metrics forecast him as a regression candidate.

Mike Soroka has been far and away the team’s best starter, putting himself not only in the Rookie of the Year race but in the Cy Young race early in the season. Soroka, however pitched just 56 1/3 innings between the Majors and minors last season and figures to have some degree of workload restriction facing him down the line. Lefty Max Fried has also emerged as a largely solid option, but he tossed only 111 innings last year and could see his own innings monitored a bit late in the year.

Last season, Keuchel racked up 204 2/3 innings while working to a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9 and a 53.7 percent ground-ball rate. Keuchel’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have dipped in recent seasons, particularly in 2018, and he also saw both his 2016-17 seasons shortened a bit by injuries. All of that has taken some of the shine of the lefty, but it’s also a fact that he’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past five seasons. Even when throwing out his Cy Young campaign, Keuchel has a 3.77 ERA with a premium ground-ball rate and above-average control through his past 518 1/3 innings.

Based on that track record, there’s little doubt that he’ll be an upgrade for the Braves — especially when considering who he’ll likely replace. Gausman would appear to be the odd man out in this situation, as he’s struggled through the worst season of his career and could very well be bullpen-bound. If he can manage to find success in that admittedly presumptive new role, the benefit to the Braves would be twofold; not only would they get another quality arm in the ’pen, they’d have a starter working deeper into games (Keuchel) and thus not forcing the bullpen into action as frequently.

Keuchel drew interest elsewhere around the league, with the Yankees in particular being mentioned as an aggressive pursuer. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees had a very clear cutoff with their offer and were not willing to budge beyond paying Keuchel the prorated portion of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (Twitter link). That base salary would’ve paid Keuchel about $11.16MM through season’s end — assuming a deal is completed tomorrow. The Cardinals, Twins and Rays were all mentioned as interested parties, to varying extents, although Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets that Tampa Bay was never strongly after the lefty. Those teams will instead have to turn to the trade market in order to find rotation upgrades, as Keuchel was the open market’s lone realistic difference-maker.

The Braves, too, still figure to be active on the trade market moving forward. Even after adding Keuchel to the rotation, the Atlanta bullpen has been shaky and could stand to be improved upon. The team has been relying on Luke Jackson in the ninth inning as well as a host of converted starters and a series of low-cost fliers on veterans (e.g. Jerry Blevins, Anthony Swarzak). Newcomb has shown well in that role, as has Touki Toussaint, which makes the situation a bit less dire, but it’d nevertheless be a surprise if the Braves didn’t add at least one more reliable arm to the relief corps. Keuchel may very well be the highest-profile addition made by Atlanta between now and July 31, but he’s unlikely to be the only one.

Poll: The Braves & Dallas Keuchel

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The Braves are reportedly in the driver’s seat to land free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who they hope would provide a significant in-season boost to a so-so rotation. Aside from Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran, no one in Atlanta’s starting five has performed all that well this year. Even Fried’s bubble has burst to some degree since a tremendous start to the season, while Teheran’s peripherals provide far less hope than his sterling 3.28 ERA.

Beyond Soroka, Fried and Teheran, 2018 summer acquisition Kevin Gausman, ’18 standout Mike Foltynewicz, and youngsters Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson are the only other Braves who have made starts this season. Gausman has long been a credible starter, but he has pitched to a hideous 6.15 ERA (albeit with a much rosier 4.03 FIP); Foltynewicz’s 6.10 ERA actually sits well ahead of his awful 6.68 FIP; and Newcomb and Toussaint are now functioning as relievers, serving as two of the most reliable options in an Atlanta bullpen that has endured no shortage of down moments in 2019.

Considering the difficulties of their pitching staff this year, it’s no surprise the Braves are pursuing Keuchel. The latest reports indicate the Braves could reel in Keuchel on a multiyear deal. Earlier this week, though, there were rumblings indicating the Braves weren’t keen on paying Keuchel the prorated portion of the $17.5MM qualifying offer ($11MM-plus) that he rejected at the outset of the offseason. Potential price aside, the Braves will have to ask themselves a.) how long it’ll take for Keuchel to get ready and b.) how effective he’ll be after sitting out several months.

Former Braves/Padres/Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel just agreed to terms with the Cubs on Wednesday after a long free-agent trip of his own, and it’s likely he’ll be prepared to join Chicago within the next couple weeks. A similar time frame may be in the cards for Keuchel, who has been throwing sim games of at least 95 pitches in recent weeks as he waits for his next opportunity.

As for his on-field performance, Keuchel has generally been excellent since he broke out in 2014 – the year before he won his lone AL Cy Young Award. However, the longtime Astro did see his strikeout, groundball and run prevention numbers drop off to certain degrees in 2018. Having totaled fewer than seven strikeouts per nine a year ago, it’s fair to guess the quality of defense behind Keuchel will play a key role in his ability to stymie opposing offenses this season. With that in mind, it’s important to note the Braves’ defense has been one of the one of the worst in the majors on grounders in 2019.

Defensive concerns aside, it’s worth pointing out signing Keuchel would only cost the Braves money. As everyone who has paid close attention to his free-agent journey knows, inking Keuchel before June 2 would have meant surrendering both draft compensation and cash. Nevertheless, if you’re a Braves fan, perhaps you’d rather see them give up talent from their farm system in a trade for a starter (Madison Bumgarner? Marcus Stroman?) than sign Keuchel. The reigning NL East champion Braves are two games out of their division lead right now, so they may have to get this decision right if they’re going to overtake the first-place Phillies.

(Poll link for app users)

Braves Reportedly Emerge As Favorites For Dallas Keuchel

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7:05pm: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Braves and Keuchel are in “serious talks.” There’s “some thought” that the Braves are willing to offer multiple years to Keuchel, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Earlier this morning, the New York Post’s George A. King III reported that Keuchel did indeed have teams willing to push their offer to the multi-year deal range, whereas the Yankees were still set on limiting any offer to one year.

2:18pm: The Braves have emerged as the “frontrunners” to sign free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Yankees have been prominently connected to the southpaw since the draft-pick compensation tied to him expired on Monday, but Atlanta has long been mentioned as a potential landing spot as well. Feinsand notes that the Yankees are still in the mix, but Atlanta has recently stepped up its efforts.

Earlier today, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the Yankees were also facing some degree of competition from the Cardinals. He, too, listed the Braves as a potential factor in the Keuchel market, along with the Twins, though Minnesota’s interest has yet to be characterized as particularly serious.

For the Braves, Keuchel would help to stabilize a rotation that is enjoying strong performances from high-upside young pitchers who are likely to eventually face some type of workload restrictions (e.g. Mike Soroka, Max Fried). Beyond that excellent pairing, the starting pitching hasn’t panned out as hoped in Atlanta so far this season. Mike Foltynewicz missed the first month of the season and hasn’t performed well since returning (today’s quality outing notwithstanding). Lefty Sean Newcomb was demoted to Triple-A early in the season due to significant control issues, and he’s come back as a reliever. Righty Kevin Gausman has an ERA north of 6.00 through a dozen starts. Of the Braves’ starters, Julio Teheran has been the most effective holdover, but there’s certainly room to add another veteran to the mix to help smooth things over.

Unlike fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, Keuchel has been reported to be more amenable to the concept of a one-year contract. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote earlier this week that agent Scott Boras has discussed some multi-year scenarios that would contain an opt-out after the current season, but a straight one-year pact would be less complicated and more palatable for a signing team. Braves leadership has previously spoken about payroll flexibility, though the exact level of financial resources Liberty Media is willing to provide to general manager Alex Anthopoulos is, of course, anyone’s guess.

Any one-year deal signed by Keuchel would come with a prorated salary; inking him for the same rate as the $17.9MM qualifying offer he rejected back in November, then, would cost a team just north of $11MM from today through season’s end. Atlanta has a payroll of about $121MM at present, and their previous franchise-record Opening Day payroll total was $122MM. Signing Keuchel would push the Braves into uncharted territory, financially speaking — particularly when considering the fact that they’ll likely still make some additions on the trade market in an effort to bolster the bullpen.

That said, the National League East is among the game’s more tightly contested divisions. The Braves are currently 1.5 games behind the division-leading Phillies, 3.5 games ahead of the Mets and five games ahead of the suddenly surging Nationals. Given the competitive nature of the division, it’s understandable that they’re perhaps willing to push beyond previous comfort zones as they vie for a second consecutive playoff berth. Atlanta is currently in possession of the second National League Wild Card spot, but the difference between a guaranteed ticket to the NLDS and a winner-take-all, one-game coinflip is significant for any club.

Quick Hits: Braves, Keuchel, Rangers, Calhoun, Yanks, Giants, Rays

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Reports have pegged the Braves as one of the favorites to sign free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, but David O’Brien of The Athletic throws cold water on that possibility. The Braves have inquired about Keuchel and do have interest in him, per O’Brien, though he writes their interest has been “overstated.” Atlanta has not engaged in deep negotiations with Keuchel, O’Brien adds. The latest from O’Brien jibes with a Tuesday report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who wrote that the Braves are “uncomfortable” with the idea of paying Keuchel the prorated value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (approximately $11.5MM).

  • Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun landed on the 10-day IL on May 22 with a left quadriceps strain. It turns out the injury will likely keep him out of their lineup until at least late June, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests. The 24-year-old Calhoun, a former top 100 prospect, was amid an encouraging season before he went to the IL. Not only did Calhoun hit .304/.416/.557 with eight home runs and more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 138 Triple-A plate appearances, but he got off to a .435/.458/.739 start with a pair of HRs in 24 major league PA.
  • The Yankees and Giants were among the many teams that showed interest in outfielder Harold Ramirez during his brief stay on the open market last offseason, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Blue Jays outrighted Ramirez on Nov. 20, and he ended up signing a minor league deal with the Marlins exactly a week later. The 24-year-old has since given the offensively challenged Marlins some much-needed production, having slashed .346/.386/.449 (128 wRC+) in 83 plate appearances.
  • Rays outfielder Tommy Pham has been out since May 30 with a strained right calf, but it appears he’ll avoid an IL stint. The club expects to plug Pham back into its lineup Thursday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays. Pham’s enjoying his third straight prodigious campaign at the plate, with a .300/.414/.483 (145 wRC+) line, eight home runs and 38 walks against 43 strikeouts in 244 attempts.

Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19

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4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.

Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.

8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.

We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.

Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”

As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.

There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.

Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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Dallas Keuchel’s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.

The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).

The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.

Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.

Twins Have Held Discussions With Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel

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The Twins have shown interest in both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The organization is “believed” to hold more interest in Kimbrel than in Keuchel at the moment, but the Twins have spoken with both players’ representatives about potential deals.

Once the clock struck midnight last night, the draft-pick compensation tied to both pitchers expired, meaning the Twins (or any other club) can now sign either pitcher without forfeiting any future draft selections or international spending allocations. As we noted late last week, Minnesota was one of the most logical landing spots for Kimbrel, and the fact that the Twins took the final three games of a four-game road set against the Rays should only serve to further embolden the front office.

Twins relievers rank 20th in the Majors with a 4.60 ERA in 2019, and while their 4.05 FIP (ninth-best) and 4.25 xFIP (11th) paint a more optimistic pitcher, the relief corps is top-heavy. Lefty Taylor Rogers has continued last year’s summer breakout with a brilliant start to the season, while Trevor May and 30-year-old rookie Ryne Harper have each been effective as well. Offseason signee Blake Parker has posted a strong 2.61 ERA, but his K/BB numbers and velocity have gone in the wrong direction while fielding-independent metrics forecast substantial regression. Righties Matt Magill, Tyler Duffey and Mike Morin have all been effective in smaller samples, with Magill and Duffey in particular posting encouraging strikeout numbers.

But the Twins have cycled through numerous options in the final couple spots of their ’pen, receiving poor results from Chase De Jong, Andrew Vasquez, Zack Littell, Austin Adams, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger. High hopes were held for former top prospect Fernando Romero as he moved from a starting role to the ’pen, but he’s struggled in both the Majors and in 19 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball. Adding Kimbrel would ideally help slow that revolving door for the final couple of bullpen spots and deepen the team’s relief mix for what looks like an increasingly likely ALDS run.

There’s certainly an argument to be made in favor of signing Keuchel, as well. The Twins have received terrific results from their top four starters, as each of Jake Odorizzi, Jose Berrios, Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson  have posted ERAs and FIPs south of 4.00. Michael Pineda has struggled as the fifth starter in his return from Tommy John surgery and is currently on the injured list. He’ll need to have his innings limited anyhow, and moving him to the bullpen could net some interesting results. He’s held opponents to a .237/.283/.419 line the first time through the order and would likely see his 92.1 mph average fastball play up in shorter stints. Keuchel isn’t the ace he was when he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015, but he’d be an upgrade over Pineda and, if Pineda takes to a bullpen role, could help to solidify both the starting pitching and relief pitching for the Twins.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that the Twins will actually sign either pitcher, but back in January, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine spoke of supplementing the team’s core when its window was “wide open.” With an 11.5-game lead in the American League Central and a 94 percent chance to take the division, per the odds at both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, that would certainly appear to describe the current situation in Minnesota.

From a payroll vantage point, the Twins opened the 2018 season with a payroll just under $129MM but trimmed close to $10MM off that sum to begin the 2019 season. Signing either Kimbrel or Keuchel would quite likely push the Twins into franchise-record payroll territory, though attendance at Target Field has unsurprisingly been on the rise as the Twins have widened their division lead over the past month. There’s no indication that the team is facing any payroll constrictions, and Levine said in recent MLB Network appearance with Chris Russo (video link) that owner Jim Pohlad is “completely supportive of augmenting this team” over the course of the summer.

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