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Dallas Keuchel

White Sox Activate Dallas Keuchel From 10-Day IL

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The White Sox announced that southpaw Dallas Keuchel has been activated off the 10-day injured list in advance of his scheduled start tonight against the Reds.  Right-hander Jonathan Stiever was optioned to the club’s alternate training site to create roster space.

Keuchel was placed on the IL due to back spasms, and since his placement was retroactive to September 7, he will return having missed only a couple of days past the 10-day minimum.  The injury wasn’t thought to be overly serious in the first place, and Keuchel will now get to make at least one tune-up start before the White Sox begin their postseason run.

Signed to a three-year, $55.5MM free agent deal last winter, Keuchel has thus far been a big plus for the White Sox, posting a 2.19 ERA over his first 53 1/3 innings on the South Side.  ERA predictors (3.19 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA) are naturally less impressed with Keuchel due to his lack of strikeouts, as he has only a 5.4 K/9.  As always, however, Keuchel is generating a ton of grounders (56% grounder rate), and this season has done a better job than ever of keeping the ball in the park.  The left-hander has a league-best 0.3 HR/9 this year, a massive improvement over the 1.3 HR/9 he posted over 112 2/3 innings with the Braves in 2019.

White Sox Injury Updates

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The Chicago White Sox are right in the thick of a three-headed teeth-clenching battle for the AL Central division lead. Their 28-16 record – good for a .636 winning percentage – not only has them on pace for 103 wins over a full 162-game season, but it places them a game ahead of the Twins for the division crown with a 2 1/2 game cushion over the Indians.

When it became clear that Luis Robert would start the season with the big league club, expectations rose for the southsiders, but few expected them to make a run for the division lead. Robert, as the brightest star in a shimmering youth movement, has done his part to rise the club’s profile and competitive level with a triple slash of .260/.324/.526 with stellar and eye-catching defense in center.

But beyond the youth movement, Chicago has enjoyed relatively sound health this season from their core producers. Dallas Keuchel’s back issues have put a bit of a damper of that storyline, but he’s hoping to return to start Thursday’s game. Carlos Rodón, however, has been a perennial injured list denizen since making his big-league debut in 2015. The 27-year-old made it back to the bump for two rusty outings early this season before returning to the training room with shoulder soreness. Soreness in his back and ribcage area has kept him out further, but he’s nearing full health.

Rodón plans to throw off a mound as early as Monday in the hopes of returning to the active roster this season, per The Athletic’s James Fegan (via Twitter). This late in the season, especially after such a prolonged absence, means that Rodón is unlikely to reclaim a spot in the rotation. Lucas Giolito has his rotation spot on lock, and Keuchel will be right behind him if he can stay healthy. Dylan Cease, Dane Dunning, Gio Gonzalez, and Reynaldo Lopez are all auditioning to make the playoff rotation. There may be space for Rodón in the bullpen, however.

Manager Rick Renteria may soon have a couple more southpaws at his disposal. After establishing himself as one of the premier worm killers in the game last season, Aaron Bummer has made just 7 appearances this season – strong as they may be. Bummer holds a 1.23 ERA/1.55 FIP over 7 1/3 innings with an absurd 78.6% groundball percentage. It’s a small sample but Bummer also struck out 12 batters in that span, good for 14.73 K/9. Bummer has twice been placed on the injured list with a left biceps strain, but his recovery remains on track. If all continues as planned, Bummer should be able to join the team in time for their final road trip that takes them through the state of Ohio for series with the Reds and Indians, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin (via Twitter).

White Sox Place Dallas Keuchel On Injured List

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The White Sox have placed lefty Dallas Keuchel on the 10-day injured list and recalled righty Reynaldo Lopez from their alternate training site in his place, per a team announcement. Keuchel is dealing with back spasms. His placement on the IL is retroactive to Sept. 7, so he could return in as little as a week. That appears to be the hope, as it was already known that Keuchel’s next start would be skipped because of this issue. Given that expectation, it’s not entirely surprising to see an IL stint to bring in a fresh arm.

Chicago’s three-year, $55.5MM investment in Keuchel has paid off in spades thus far. Prior to going on the injured list, the 32-year-old was in the midst of perhaps his best run since capturing the 2015 American League Cy Young Award. Through 53 1/3 frames this year, Keuchel has worked to a 2.19 ERA and 3.14 FIP with 5.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9 and a 56 percent ground-ball rate. He’s never managed to limit home runs at this rate, so there may be some regression coming on that front, but Keuchel still looks better than he’s been since that Cy Young win.

Lopez was only just optioned to the White Sox’ Schaumburg site last week. The former top prospect simply hasn’t performed well enough to be one of the team’s top rotation options over the past two seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2019, Lopez carries a dismal 5.53 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 193 2/3 innings. He started four games for the Sox in 2020 before being optioned out, but he lasted only 9 2/3 innings overall. In that short time, he yielded 11 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits, eight walks and a hit batter with 10 strikeouts.

Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning currently lead an impressive core of young ChiSox starters, and veteran Gio Gonzalez was just activated from the injured list earlier this week. Assuming Keuchel’s injury doesn’t worsen, he could return for the finale of a pivotal series against the division-rival Twins next Thursday. The Sox also play four games in Cleveland from Sept. 21-24, and if Keuchel is able to make it back for the finale against the Twins, he’d line up to start the second game of an equally important series against the Indians.

American League Injury Updates: Piscotty, Cobb, Keuchel, Pearson

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Here are the latest updates on a few injury situations from around the American League …

  • The Athletics will go a few days without full participation from outfielder Stephen Piscotty, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle covers on Twitter. (He’s pinch running as we speak.) Thankfully, it seems there’s reason to hope he’ll bounce back quickly after receiving a cortisone shot to his balky wrist. Piscotty has turned in a useful but hardly world-beating .264/.308/.438 batting line on the season.
  • Orioles righty Alex Cobb is days away from a return, with outfielder Austin Hays seemingly not far behind, as skipper Brandon Hyde tells reporters including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Cobb’s absence is as yet not fully explained; the quick turnaround could indicate that he had to step away owing to coronavirus protocols. Regardless, it’s good news that he’s expected to jump right back into active duty.
  • The White Sox don’t appear overly concerned with the health status of lefty Dallas Keuchel. He’ll plan to miss a start after taking an early exit from his last outing due to lower back issues, but that’s expected to be the extent of the missed time, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and others mentioned on Twitter. Keuchel has thus far justified the South Siders’ faith in signing him, running up 53 1/3 innings of 2.19 ERA ball.
  • Exciting young Blue Jays hurler Nate Pearson is likely not going to build back to a full starter’s role, skipper Charlie Montoyo told reporters including MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm (Twitter links). That’s sensible for a variety of reasons. For one thing, there really isn’t much time to ramp him up. For another, it’s not clear that’d be the right role after Pearson ran into some early MLB struggles. The firmly contending Toronto outfit can certainly make use of Pearson in a relief role while still getting him valuable work at the game’s highest level.

Dallas Keuchel Leaves Start With Lower Back Stiffness

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White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel prematurely exited today’s game against the Royals with an apparent injury. The White Sox went on to announce (via The Athletic’s James Fegan on Twitter) that Keuchel is dealing with stiffness in his lower back and is currently considered day-to-day.

It’s good news that the preliminary evaluation of Keuchel doesn’t sound too severe, and we hope that Keuchel will get back on the mound with no IL stint and without missing a beat. The veteran lefty has been a solid addition to the suddenly-contending White Sox, as he’s contributed a 2.42 ERA through his first 8 starts.

This afternoon, he was at it again, allowing just two hits in five shutout innings for the Sox before unexpectedly leaving the game following his warm-up pitches. Averaging just 5.6 K/9 for the year, Keuchel is as uninterested in the strikeout as ever, but he’s excelled elsewhere, allowing fewer walks and home runs than in recent years. That’s given way to a 3.19 FIP, which would be the lowest mark Keuchel has posted in a season since his Cy Young Award-winning year in 2015.

The White Sox have already had fellow starters Carlos Rodon and Gio Gonzalez require IL stints this year, so it’s a relief that Keuchel is initially listed as only day-to-day. And while Rodon is said to be nearing a return, any more injuries would be a considerable test to Chicago’s depth. Should Keuchel need an IL stint, the recently-optioned Reynaldo Lopez could be forced back into Major League action.

White Sox Sign Dallas Keuchel

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The White Sox have taken their next step toward emerging from a lengthy rebuilding process, announcing Monday that they’ve signed free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM. The Scott Boras client also has a fourth-year club/vesting option. Keuchel, the White Sox revealed, will earn $18MM annually, and the Sox hold a $1.5MM buyout on his 2023 option. His option will reportedly vest at $20MM if he pitches 160 innings in years two and three of the contract. Otherwise, it functions as a traditional club option.

Keuchel’s signing means there’s one less coveted gift to claim beneath the free agency tree for leaguewide GMs, but it should bring a good amount of cheer to South Side fans. The Sox have made a substantial investment in the soon-to-be-32-year-old, but he figures to slot in nicely as a steady, veteran presence in a rotation full of youthful upside.

Keuchel may never again regain the form that saw him capture a Cy Young Award back in 2015 with the Astros. That year saw him ride career-best strikeout and walk rates en route to a 2.48 ERA, but ensuing seasons have seen underlying indicators take a more bearish stance on his value. He hasn’t registered better than a 3.69 FIP since 2016, while his strikeout abilities have generally hovered around the 7.0 K/9 range during that same time frame. Never a hard thrower, Keuchel, a sinkerballer by trade, has seen his two-seamer lose almost two full ticks since registering an average speed of 90 mph back in ’15.

Of all the players to be impacted by last season’s free agency freeze, Keuchel may have been hit the hardest. Regardless of whether teams were scared off by early-offseason demands that may have been too optimistic, or simply wary of his age and declining metrics, it’s still fair to say that few foresaw a pitcher of Keuchel’s pedigree having to settle for a one-year, pro-rated June deal with the Braves that guaranteed him just $13MM. But, after a half-season in Atlanta that saw Keuchel perform to career averages with a 3.75 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 output in 112 2/3 innings, Chicago has finally given the lefty the long-term stability he’s been seeking.

Plus, it’s about time the White Sox proved able to land a higher-end free-agent starter to form a battery with Yasmani Grandal. They were said to be engaged seriously with Zack Wheeler and Jordan Lyles before those pitchers signed deals elsewhere that exceeded most outside expectations. Now, Keuchel provides their righty-heavy young rotation with, at worst, an innings-eating lefty with ample experience playing under the game’s brightest lights. With a beard, big frame, and heavy sinker, fans of the next winning Southside team may be forgiven for confusing Keuchel with ghosts of Mark Buehrle past.

Keuchel and the newly signed Gio Gonzalez promise to provide valuable mentorship to young arms like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and the mending Carlos Rodon. Giolito had something of a coming-out party in particular last season, but the truth is that every pitcher in that group may have only scratched the surface of their potential. Rodon’s impending return, in particular, should give the Chicago rotation an absolutely stolid look–it may not be the highest-priced rotation in the bigs, but it certainly is long on ace upside and bulldog mentality.

Speaking of prices: Keuchel’s deal makes him the second-highest-paid player (by average annual value) on the Chicago roster, after Grandal. MLBTR correctly predicted the lefty would land with the White Sox this offseason in our free agent predictions from November, but it seems the Boras Corporation was able to leverage interest in Keuchel well in excess of our expectations, as this deal lands safely above the three-year, $39MM contract we projected him to receive.

In addition to their previous deals with Grandal, Gonzalez, and Jose Abreu, this deal brings Chicago’s guarantees this offseason to $183.5MM in new money–before accounting for option years. Add in the projected $5.7MM award due to newly acquired Nomar Mazara and the Sox have come awfully close to supplementing their young core with $200MM in commitments.

It may not be the blockbuster-level deal Keuchel envisioned entering the 2018-19 offseason, nor is it in the same arena as the deals signed this offseason by Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler. What it seems to be rather, is a good click above deals guaranteed to other “mid-rotation” arms like Kyle Gibson (3/$30MM), Tanner Roark (2/$24MM), or Julio Teheran (1/$9MM) this winter—perhaps fair value considering both Keuchel’s Cy Young past and steady, if unspectacular, recent track record.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the terms (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today added details on the vestting option (Twitter link).

Notes On Dallas Keuchel, Market Trends

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The White Sox continued their active offseason by inking Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth. Let’s check in on some reactions to Chicago’s most recent splash, as well as a look at broader market trends.

  • The Sox are still a bit shy of being legitimate contenders, feels ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Between some anticipated regression from Tim Anderson, whose .399 BABIP is not sustainable, and uncertainty among Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Nomar Mazara, Chicago’s lineup doesn’t match up with the league’s elite, even if it is rife with upside. In Schoenfield’s estimation, that’s not quite enough to support a rotation that still looks a bit underwhelming. Keuchel and Gio González are reliable but no longer top-of-the-rotation starters, and there’s little in the way of depth beyond those two and ace Lucas Giolito. Skepticism aside, Schoenfield notes there’s little question this will be the most exciting White Sox team in recent memory.
  • The Athletic’s James Fegan feels similarly, pointing out that the Sox may not contend until the soon to be 32-year-old Keuchel is firmly on the downside of his career. Nevertheless, Fegan praises the signing as a “declarative moment” for the franchise. Between Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal, the organization is showing “seriousness and urgency about breaking an embarrassing eleven-year playoff drought,” Fegan argues. Keuchel should be a positive in the clubhouse, he feels, and Chicago no doubt needed to add capable arms to a rotation that was the league’s sixth-worst run prevention unit in 2019.
  • While the 72-win White Sox have been busy this offseason, playoff teams have actually been the most active in free agency thus far, found Ben Clemens of Fangraphs in a piece which predated the Keuchel signing. 58.6% of free agents worth at least 2 fWAR last season have inked with teams who made the postseason in 2019. (Keuchel’s signing wouldn’t change that figure, as he was worth just 0.8 wins in his abbreviated time with the Braves). If that trend were to hold, it would make for the highest rate of quality free agents flocking to playoff teams in the past twenty years. Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon are among the notable exceptions. Nevertheless, as Clemens explores more fully, teams looking to defend their postseason berths, not those hoping to unseat recent powerhouses, have been the first to strike in free agency.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal

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Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?

For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.

Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?

Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.

Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.

For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.

So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)

Angels Notes: Payroll, Ryu, Keuchel, Ohtani

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Let’s check in on the Halos, who made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason last week with the signing of superstar third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract…

  • The Angels made their send notable rotation pickup of the offseason Thursday, agreeing to sign right-hander Julio Teheran to a one-year, $9MM guarantee. Teheran and the previously acquired Dylan Bundy should help improve the Angels’ starting staff in 2020, but the team still hasn’t added a much-needed front-line hurler this offseason. But now that Teheran, Bundy and Rendon are in the fold, does the club have the financial flexibility to reel in yet another rotation upgrade? Perhaps. As Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group observes, the Angels currently have an actual payroll around $170MM and a luxury-tax outlay in the $181MM range – $27MM below the threshold. The former figure would be a franchise-record amount for the Angels, though owner Arte Moreno has indicated the team’s payroll would rise in 2020. It’s just unclear what his limit is.
  • Signing either lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu or fellow southpaw Dallas Keuchel would put yet another significant dent in the Angels’ payroll. No matter, the team appears to be in on both hurlers. The Angels and agent Scott Boras (who also represents Rendon) have had “multiple conversations” about Ryu and Keuchel, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times writes. However, Torres notes that a deal with the Angels isn’t imminent for either pitcher. Ryu (three years, $54MM) and Keuchel (three/39) are MLBTR’s highest-rated remaining pitchers in terms of potential earning power.
  • Regardless of how many moves the Angels make this winter, there may not be a more important development in 2020 than getting two-way star Shohei Ohtani back to full health. The right-hander/designated hitter was unable to pitch at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2018. Fortunately, though, the 25-year-old Ohtani has fully recovered from that serious procedure, Fletcher relays (Twitter links). Looking ahead to 2020, Ohtani only figures to pitch once a week, which aligns with the schedule he grew accustomed to in Japan before immigrating to the United States.

Pitching Notes: Ryu, Keuchel, Ray, King Felix

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Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”

Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.

More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…

  • Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.
  • The Diamondbacks’ decision to sign Madison Bumgarner wasn’t made as a precursor to a Robbie Ray trade, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Of course, it wouldn’t behoove any general manager to proclaim otherwise, and as Piecoro observes, nothing in Hazen’s comments expressly rules out the possibility of trading Ray, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Arizona moved Paul Goldschmidt under similar circumstances, when he had a year of control remaining and was set to be their second-highest-paid player. (Ray will actually be Arizona’s highest-paid player, given the backloaded nature of Bumgarner’s deal.) The strong demand for pitching and dwindling supply in free agency should make Ray a popular target and could position the D-backs to again pick up a controllable piece or two that’s near the big league level, as was the case in recent trades of Goldschmidt (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) and Zack Greinke (Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas).
  • Former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has already made clear he won’t be hanging up his spikes. He’s “receiving interest” from teams, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter, although the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Hernandez may be a former Cy Young winner who sat atop the hierarchy of baseball’s very best pitchers from 2009-14, but his decline into a back-of-the-rotation arm and, more recently, a liability on the mound was rather swift. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has limped to a dismal 5.82 ERA / 5.44 FIP in 227 1/3 innings. The scintillating heater that averaged nearly 96 mph and scraped triple digits when he debuted as a babyfaced 19-year-old in 2005 has faded to an 89.5 mph average dating back to Opening Day 2018. A pitcher with Hernandez’s preternatural talent shouldn’t be totally counted out, particularly given that he won’t even turn 34 until April, but he’s purely a rebound candidate at this point.
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