Ian Kinsler Reaches Plate Appearance Requirement In Vesting Option
Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler just completed his second plate appearance of the night (an RBI single), meaning he’s now up to 600 on the season — the required threshold to trigger the 2018 vesting option in his contract.
As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier this month, Kinsler’s previously known $10MM club option contains a vesting clause that would guarantee the option upon reaching 600 PAs. MLBTR further reported that Kinsler’s option will actually vest at $11MM, although the option won’t formally trigger until the season ends, as his contract stipulates that he cannot be on the disabled list at season’s end. Kinsler’s contract also contains an escalator that’ll boost his 2018 salary by $1MM if he wins a Gold Glove Award this season — a distinct possibility.
In some respects, it’s a fairly moot point. The Tigers always seemed exceptionally likely to exercise Kinsler’s option, especially when considering the fact that he’d be paid $5MM of that sum regardless due to the large nature of the option’s buyout. Kinsler hasn’t had his best year at the plate — the contrary, he’s actually had his worst — but he’s been on fire over the season’s final month and entered play hitting .236/.313/.416 with 22 homers on the season. In addition to the power, Kinsler has swiped 14 bases and provided value both with his baserunning and his characteristically strong glovework at second base.
While the exact amount that Kinsler will earn in 2018 will become clear once Awards voting has concluded, what won’t be clear for quite some time is exactly what uniform the four-time All-Star will be wearing on Opening Day next season. Kinsler recently told MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that he planned to talk directly to GM Al Avila before season’s end to discuss his future with the team. Winning, understandably, is becoming a greater priority for the 35-year-old, and the Tigers look to be embarking on an aggressive rebuild after trading Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and Cameron Maybin all within the past year.
As such, Kinsler stands out as one of the more obvious — if not the most obvious — trade candidates of the upcoming offseason. While he may or may not return to the star-caliber levels f output he delivered as recently as 2016, Kinsler remains a decidedly above-average regular at a premium infield position that offers above-average pop for his position in addition to high-quality defense. That skill set, paired with a reasonable price tag in 2018 — be it $11MM or $12MM — should generate plenty of trade interest in the offseason. Kinsler does have a partial no-trade clause in his contract, though the second baseman indicated to Morosi that his willingness to waive that provision will be determined by what Avila tells him about the team’s planned offseason trajectory.
AL Central Notes: Tigers, Twins, Royals
With a likely eventful offseason approaching for the Tigers, MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery takes an exhaustive look at the team’s payroll and arbitration class. Woodbery notes that the Tigers will likely shop veterans Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias this offseason, as has been oft-speculated in the past, and he speculates that the team may even eat the remaining $18MM on Victor Martinez‘s contract this offseason. Andrew Romine and Alex Presley are both non-tender candidates, and Woodbery points out that Bruce Rondon‘s lack of a September call-up makes it all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll be non-tendered this winter as well. The Tigers seem likely to head into the 2018 season with their lowest payroll since 2011, though the combined $54MM that is owed to Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann, plus dead-money commitments to Justin Verlander and Prince Fielder (a total of $14MM) ultimately mean they’ll still spend at a relatively notable clip.
More from the American League Central…
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press opines that prior MLB managerial experience should be prioritized over age or familiarity with analytics as the Tigers search for a new manager. Brad Ausmus’ lack of experience in the dugout “loomed large” over his tenure in Detroit, Fenech writes, before going on to suggest that veteran managers such as Ron Gardenhire or Ron Washington would make sense as candidates to lead what figures to be a young and inexperienced Tigers team in the coming years. Other speculative candidates listed by Fenech include Mike Redmond and Manny Acta.
- The Twins cut international scouting director Howard Norsetter loose last week, and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey explains to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that changes to amateur international free agency in the latest collective bargaining agreement played a significant role in the decision. “Historically you did have markets all over the place where you could run independently,” says Falvey. “The way the bonus structures worked, there was no cap, there were no limitations. Now we have it all under one umbrella. Where we devote our time, our resources and otherwise, we’ve revisited that to some degree.” Norsetter was based in Australia and was responsible for scouting virtually everywhere outside of Latin America, where Fred Guerrero was the Twins’ scouting coordinator. Falvey says the Twins will “re-appropriate” resources toward Latin American scouting, and Berardino notes that Guerrero could take on a larger role in the department.
- Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star fields a host of Royals questions in his latest mailbag column, with topics ranging from the 2018 rotation, to a potential reunion with Jarrod Dyson, to the possibility of retaining Jason Vargas and the lack of a September call-up for former first-rounder Hunter Dozier. Notably, Dodd suggests that the Royals could head to Spring Training with a rotation consisting of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Nate Karns, Jake Junis and Jason Hammel, but the team will still be on the lookout for depth additions to join Sam Gaviglio and Eric Skoglund this winter. “Salary constraints,” however, could limit the Royals’ range of targets. Dodd also adds that the Royals still have a strong relationship with righty Luke Hochevar, who missed 2017 while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, and they’d be interested in a minor league pact to bring him back to the organization.
Miguel Cabrera Diagnosed With Two Herniated Disks In Back
Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera has been diagnosed with a pair of herniated disks in his back after undergoing an MRI, manager Brad Ausmus told reporters Sunday (link via MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery). The team doesn’t yet have an exact treatment plan lined up, but Woodbery notes that surgery is not believed to be on the table at this time. Further, Cabrera could still conceivably play again before season’s end.
As Woodbery notes, back issues have been a persistent problem for Cabrera throughout the season, and they could expedite the decision to move the former AL MVP to a full-time designated hitter. That won’t happen in 2018 unless Detroit can find a taker for Victor Martinez and the $18MM he’s owed next season at some point this winter, but the 2018 season is the final remaining year on Martinez’s four-year, $68MM contract.
While the decision of where to play Cabrera down the road won’t be up to Ausmus, who will not return as the team’s manager in 2018, Ausmus wasn’t shy in expressing that he feels Cabrera will eventually have to make that move. “Not only do I think that would benefit him, I think that’s probably going to happen,” said Ausmus of a potential move to DH for Cabrera. He also indicated that treatment options presently include anti-inflammatories, injections and various means of conditioning to alleviate the discomfort Cabrera is feeling.
The 34-year-old Cabrera has had far and away the worst offensive season of his career in 2017, hitting just .249/.329/.399 with 16 home runs in 529 plate appearances. The 2017 season marks the first time that he’s ever been below the league average in terms of offensive production, per OPS+ (92) and wRC+ (91).
Cabrera’s sudden decline and newfound back issues are particularly problematic for a rebuilding Tigers club that has been looking to shed payroll and get younger. While there’s never been any talk of moving Cabrera, his massive contract figures to be somewhat of an impediment to achieving those goals in the coming years. Cabrera inked a mammoth eight-year, $248MM contract extension prior to the 2014 campaign, which added onto a preexisting contract that still had two years and $44MM to go. He’s just wrapping up the second season of that deal and is still owed $192MM over the next six years.
Quick Hits: Sandoval, Tigers, Royals, Paxton
Third baseman Pablo Sandoval‘s reunion with the Giants this season has been a disaster from a statistical standpoint, as the former franchise linchpin has batted just .213/.253/.346 in 146 plate appearances in his return to the Bay Area. Nevertheless, the Giants seem primed to keep Sandoval on their 40-man roster into next spring, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports. Factors working in Sandoval’s favor include his inexpensive price tag – the 31-year-old has a club option for 2018 worth the league minimum – and manager Bruce Bochy’s favorable opinion of him. Bochy said Saturday that the Sandoval experiment has “gone well,” and he praised the former member of the Red Sox for his defensive work at both corner infield positions. Because injuries frequently kept Sandoval out of action during his nightmarish stint in Boston from 2015-17, he’ll play winter ball during the upcoming offseason in an effort to make up for some of the missed time. After that, it appears he’ll have an opportunity in spring training to earn a spot on San Francisco’s 25-man roster.
- The Tigers announced that reliever Alex Wilson suffered a broken right leg (a non-displaced fibular fracture, to be exact) in their game against the Twins on Saturday. The injury occurred in the eighth inning when a 103.8 mph line drive off Joe Mauer‘s bat struck Wilson. Wilson’s now facing a three-month recovery, giving him plenty of time to work back to full strength by next spring, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. The 30-year-old right-hander logged 60 innings of 4.50 ERA ball and posted 6.3 K/9 against 2.25 BB/9 in 2017. Wilson, who earned $1.18MM this year, is scheduled to make his second trip through arbitration over the winter.
- Royals manager Ned Yost tells Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com that the team will consider using the athletic Raul Mondesi in center field next season. Mondesi has only played the middle infield in the majors since debuting last year, but he could help the club fill impending free agent Lorenzo Cain‘s void should the standout center fielder depart in the offseason. It may be wishful thinking for the Royals, though, as the 22-year-old Mondesi has batted an ugly .178/.224/.265 in 206 plate appearances in the majors. Mondesi did provide some reason for hope at the Triple-A level this year, however, with a .305/.340/.539 line, 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases across 357 PAs.
- Separate stints on the disabled list have kept Mariners ace James Paxton out for approximately two months this year and limited him to 124 2/3 innings. In an effort to ward off injuries in 2018, Paxton will undergo body and blood testing in the offseason to find diet and workout regimens that suit him, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets. Paxton has pitched to a 3.03 ERA and registered 10.25 K/9 against 2.67 BB/9 this year, which are the type of numbers that could make him a Cy Young contender over a full season of work.
Tigers Notes: Managers, Avila, Ausmus, Verlander, Astros
The latest from the Motor City…
- The Tigers are planning “an extensive search” for their next manager, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters. Avila didn’t specify whether he was looking for a veteran skipper or a younger alternative to lead the Tigers through the “trying, grinding process” of a rebuild, though Avila did say that the new manager had to have some type of dugout experience, whether as a manager in the majors or minors, or as a Major League coach. Previous manager Brad Ausmus, of course, lacked this experience, coming into the job after his playing career and a stint in the Padres’ baseball operations department.
- From that same piece, Beck lists nine names he feels could be potential candidates to be Detroit’s next manager. Beck’s options range from internal choices (hitting coach Lloyd McClendon and first base coach Omar Vizquel) to several other names with ties to Avila and/or the Tigers, including Fredi Gonzalez, Phil Nevin and Mike Redmond.
- Ausmus’ lack of experience proved to be his undoing, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press opines, especially after the Tigers lost a key on-field leader in Torii Hunter after the 2014 season. Ausmus was popular with his players but generally seemed like more of a teammate than a manager, creating a “country club” atmosphere within the clubhouse. There were rumors that the Tigers were parting ways with Ausmus after both the 2015 and 2016 seasons, and Fenech believes that Avila should’ve made a managerial change then instead of giving Ausmus more chances. Fenech also notes, in partial defense of Ausmus, that he faced a particularly large challenge for a first-time manager in taking over a team expected to be World Series contenders.
- The trade that sent Justin Verlander to the Astros was finalized literally just two seconds before the August 31 deadline, Sports Illustrated’s Ben Reiter reports in a behind-the-scenes look at how the blockbuster deal came together. Unable to return to his Houston home due to Hurricane Harvey, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow ended up making the final negotiations on August 31 while trying to find a cellphone signal at his in-laws’ dining table (during a dinner party, to boot).
Tigers Will Not Retain Brad Ausmus
The Tigers and Brad Ausmus will part ways after the end of the current season, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter that the club won’t extend his contract. Ausmus, 48, has been at the helm of the Detroit dugout for the last four seasons.
Detroit had exercised a club option to retain Ausmus for the current campaign. But it did not further address his contract situation last winter, leaving the skipper facing an uncertain future. Now, his tenure will end as the ballclub itself faces its own uncertainty as it carries out a rebuilding effort.
GM Al Avila says he’s looking for a “new approach and a fresh start” in that leadership role (via ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). It’s not yet known, though, just what candidates the club will consider. The Tigers will have a head start on the rest of the managerial market, though, as they are the first organization to announce a chance.
Ausmus, a long-time big league catcher, was hired when the organization was pushing hard to contend. The Tigers won ninety games in his first year at the helm, but were swept out of the postseason and haven’t made it back since. Then-GM Dave Dombrowski was cut loose in the midst of a disappointing 2015 season, giving way to Avila. Detroit managed 86 wins last year, but the outlook wasn’t all that optimistic heading into the current campaign and the club has staggered to a 62-91 record to this point.
Notable change has come at many levels of the Tigers organization of late. That includes player turnover, of course, with J.D. Martinez and longtime star Justin Verlander departing via trade over the summer. Long-time owner Mike Ilitch passed away in February, leaving the team to his son, Chris. Of course, there’s also continuity in that transition; the younger Ilitch says his family plans to continue to own the ballclub for a long time to come (via MLB.com’s Jason Beck, on Twitter).
AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Royals, Twins, Avisail
Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that he intends to sit down the general manager Al Avila in the next couple of days to discuss his future with the team (all Twitter links). The 35-year-old Kinsler says his willingness to waive his partial no-trade clause will be dependent on what Avila tells about the team’s planned offseason direction, as a return to the postseason is his priority. The Tigers appear to be dead-set on rebuilding, having traded the likes of Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and Cameron Maybin in the past 10 months. Kinsler, then, stands out as one of the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason as he heads into the final year of his contract.
More from the American League Central…
- Royals general manager Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he’s prepared for many to second-guess the front office’s decision not to sell off short-term pieces at the trade deadline. “It’s a fair question,” said Moore, though he pointed to the Royals’ July surge as rationale for the moves. Indeed, as Flanagan points out, Kansas City was 2.5 games out of the division lead and was in possession of a Wild Card spot on July 30. Moore tells Flanagan that following the current season, the Royals will “do everything we can” to compete for wins in 2018 and for player acquisitions in the offseason. That doesn’t sound like the Royals are planning on any sort of rebuild with much of its core hitting the open market, though Moore likely wouldn’t tip his hand at this point even if that were the direction in which the Royals are leaning.
- With the Twins in the thick of a Wild Card race, Michael Rand of the Minneapolis Star Tribune takes a look at the first season of work from new front-office tandem Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Rand notes that the team’s show of faith in in-house young talent like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Jose Berrios has proven to be shrewd, as as their emphasis on improving catcher defense and adding high-character veterans. The Twins, however, failed to sufficiently address the bullpen despite it being a clear point of need this winter, Rand opines, and the decision to tender lefty Hector Santiago for $8MM looks especially questionable with the benefit of hindsight.
- White Sox outfielder/DH Avisail Garcia tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he hopes to remain with the club even through the rebuilding phase. The 26-year-old can become a free agent following the 2019 season and is in the midst of a breakout campaign, however, making him a fairly logical offseason trade candidate. Van Schouwen also spoke with ChiSox hitting coach Todd Steverson about Garcia’s improvements this season, getting his take on what has helped Garcia break out. Through 519 plate appearances, Garcia is hitting .333/.382/.504 with 17 homers, 23 doubles and four triples.
AL Notes: Red Sox, Tigers, Athletics
Two Red Sox position players, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, feature prominently on Jim Callis of MLB.com’s list of the MLB rookies with the most potential. Benintendi, Callis writes, “combines pure hitting ability, power, speed and defense in a manner reminiscent of former Boston star Fred Lynn.” In fact, three of the top four players on the list are Red Sox products, with Chicago’s Yoan Moncada squeezing in between Cody Bellinger and Devers. Here’s more from the American League.
- With the Tigers miles from contention, the rest of their season provides opportunities for veterans to showcase their skills for other clubs, MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery writes. Some, like Anibal Sanchez, are likely to become free agents (Sanchez has a $16MM option that the Tigers are all but certain to decline, likely opting instead to pay him a $5MM buyout.) Others, like Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias, are trade candidates. (Jeff Todd discussed the possibility of a Kinsler deal in his recent Three Needs piece on the Tigers.) Still others, like Bryan Holaday and Tyler Collins, are currently on the fringes of the Tigers’ 40-man roster.
- The Athletics‘ new ballpark won’t open for several more years at a minimum, but the team’s future that far down the horizon could still be very bright, Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The team has a solid young core that includes Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Marcus Semien, Chad Pinder and Ryon Healy, along with prospects like A.J. Puk, Jorge Mateo, Dustin Fowler, Austin Beck and Lazaro Armenteros. Of course, it’s far from clear which of those players will be keys for the A’s five-plus years down the line — in fact, some of them, like Semien, could well depart via free agency by then. But Jenkins points out that, unlike with the nearby Giants, it’s already possible to imagine good future Athletics lineups based around the players they already have.
Three Needs: Detroit Tigers
Next up in our Three Needs series: the Detroit Tigers.
1. Trade Ian Kinsler.
This is about as obvious as these sorts of decisions get. Kinsler is already 35. He’s going to cost either $11MM or $12MM, depending upon whether he wins the A.L. Gold Glove for second base. (More on that here.) And it’s perfectly plausible that he could, since he continues to draw top-notch reviews for his glovework. Though Kinsler has dipped at the plate this year — he’s at career lows in batting average (.234) and slugging (.397) and is fighting to stay ahead of his prior low in OBP (currently .309) — he has a lengthy record of above-average hitting. And he also carries only a .243 batting average on balls in play this year despite making more hard contact (37.2%) than he ever has before, indicating some positive regression could be on the way. Even in a down year, Kinsler will put up at around 2 WAR; last year, he topped five (and, by measure of the DRS-based rWAR measure, did the same for the three prior seasons as well).
Bottom line: teams are going to see appeal in adding such a high-quality veteran at a palatable price on a one-year deal. Detroit has no real business employing Kinsler at this point. While his partial no-trade clause could factor in, Kinsler will surely see the merit in finding a new home with a contender. Demand at second base may not be immense, but there should be enough to support a decent return. The Tigers should be, and likely are, laying groundwork now to begin an auction process for the veteran.
2. Listen on Michael Fulmer, but hold out for a huge return.
You’ve heard the phrase “controllable, top-of-the-rotation starter” — or some variation of it — discussed quite a bit in recent months and years. Everybody wants ’em, but there aren’t enough to go around. And as that class of pitcher goes, Fulmer is near the top.
Fulmer is still just 24 and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2016. He won’t reach arbitration until 2019 (as a Super Two) and won’t hit free agency until 2023. His overall ERA has sagged this year on the whole, but he carried an exact match to last year’s effort (3.06) following his start on July 15th. Fulmer faded as a nerve issue became problematic. While that did ultimately require surgery, it’s not expected to limit him next year — and, as an added bonus, his elbow ligaments just received a visual inspection and clean bill of health from the world’s most famous baseball surgeon (Dr. James Andrews). Though he doesn’t rack up all that many strikeouts, most agree it’s not a concern, as Fulmer dominates with a four-pitch power arsenal that may allow him to continue to suppress batting averages on balls in play.
We’ve already heard of some teams approaching the Tigers with interest, and that’ll surely continue. The market has produced huge returns for pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jose Quintana; while Fulmer doesn’t have the former’s excellence or the latter’s track record, he’s much younger and cheaper. Clearly, even with the surgery, he’s one of the game’s best trade chips.
Under the circumstances, the Tigers ought to listen in earnest to offers on Fulmer. But the club would be foolish to pre-commit to dealing him for less than a true haul of young talent. There’s always risk in hanging onto a pitcher that has immediate and long-term value. But that’s just what the team should be willing to do if suitors don’t come calling with packages featuring multiple players that project to be quality big leaguers.
3. Don’t be afraid to lose.
Of course, Detroit shouldn’t hold onto Fulmer or others out of any inclination to keep winning games. The pain will come, and already has; the danger now is in not embracing it fully. Nabbing a few more W’s in 2018 is likely only to cost draft position and extend the timeline of a successful rebuild. There’s nothing the Tigers can do but play Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann, and Victor Martinez (if he’s able to return). Other than those high-priced veterans, who’ll need to reestablish some value to be traded, the efforts should be directed toward developing players, finding hidden gems, and generating trade chips.
That’s not to say that the Tigers can’t give some money to veterans. But they ought to be the sort whose control rights come with some real upside — younger free agents who haven’t yet harnessed their talents or still-useful veterans that slipped through the cracks. While the team had its reasons this year for giving significant time this year to over-30 role players such as Andrew Romine (114 games) and Alex Presley (207 plate appearances despite lengthy DL stints), doing so next year may not be wise.
Instead, the Tigers ought to be willing to part with useful relievers such as Shane Greene and Alex Wilson if there’s something worthwhile to be brought back. They should keep running out Mikie Mahtook unless and until he proves he can’t sustain solid production. And they ought to find out what they have not only in Dixon Machado, but also in reserve catcher John Hicks (who has hit quite well) and newly acquired prospect Jeimer Candelario.
If some buy-low opportunities arise in free agency, that’s always worth considering, but the Tigers already maintain a hefty payroll. And the bet here is that a wide variety of other teams will provide competition (and thus raise salaries) for the sort of short-term assets that might be of interest. Instead, perhaps, working the waiver wire and minor-league free agency will be more fruitful avenues for Detroit. The club should be open to taking chances there and perhaps also pursuing a few Rule 5 players.
It seems likely there will be fewer teams than usual in 2018 that truly don’t care about winning. The Tigers may join the White Sox as the only teams that are really just focused on aggregating young talent (though that could change in the coming weeks and there are a few other organizations that won’t be looking to spend much to improve in the near-term). That’s actually a good thing for Detroit, because the club has a clean path to a top draft pick and can operate without worry of results while other, slightly more advanced rebuilders begin to feel demand for results. The front office already made the hardest call in trading Justin Verlander. There’s no reason to look back now.
Tigers Acquire Elvin Rodriguez From Angels To Complete Justin Upton Trade
The Angels have announced that they have sent righty Elvin Rodriguez to the Tigers. He’ll become the player to be named later in the deal that sent outfielder Justin Upton to Los Angeles two weeks ago.
Rodriguez, 19, joins fellow minor-league righty Grayson Long in making up the return for Upton, who was something of an odd trade candidate given that he can opt out of his contract at the end of the season. Detroit did have some leverage, as the team could have held onto him and then traded the remainder of his deal if he did not exercise that clause and return to the open market. The Tigers also had reason to want a deal, though, since Upton was not eligible for a qualifying offer (having previously received one) if he opted out.
Rodriguez has shown some promise in the Halos system and ranked 22nd among the club’s farmhands on MLB.com’s latest list. Though he doesn’t even sit above 90 mph, per MLB.com, he generates movement, possesses intriguing secondary offerings, and has a track record of success in the low minors. Refinement and perhaps also some physical development may yet come. Rodriguez posted a 2.91 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in his 68 innings this year, most of which came at the Rookie ball level before he earned a promotion to Class A.