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Tigers Seeking Additional Pitching After Maeda Deal

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The Tigers finalized their two-year contract with Kenta Maeda this afternoon. The right-hander adds a veteran presence to the middle of the staff behind Tarik Skubal. He joins younger hurlers Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long and Matt Manning in the season-opening mix.

That’s a talented group, but Detroit doesn’t seem prepared to sit on its laurels. President of baseball operations Scott Harris told the beat this afternoon that the front office will continue searching for pitching (relayed by Evan Woodbery of MLive).

Harris acknowledged the general truism that teams could always stand to stockpile pitching depth. Beyond that, there’s good reason for the front office to look for at least one more rotation option. Each of Detroit’s top six has some workload questions. Skubal missed nearly a calendar year between 2022 and ’23 due to a flexor issue that required forearm surgery. Mize didn’t pitch at all this year as he worked back from June ’22 Tommy John surgery. Maeda had undergone a UCL repair late in ’21 and missed the entire 2022 campaign. He pitched 104 1/3 innings this past season, losing a couple months to a triceps strain.

Manning fractured both feet on separate comebackers this year, keeping him to 15 starts. While those are fluky in nature, he’d battled shoulder issues and was limited to 12 appearances in 2022. Olson and Gipson-Long, meanwhile, made their MLB debuts in the middle of this past season. The former pitched 103 2/3 innings over 23 appearances; the latter made four starts in the final month.

Adding another rotation option could allow the front office to keep one of their younger arms at Triple-A Toledo in preparation for injuries that’ll inevitably arise throughout the year. It’d also afford some flexibility for manager A.J. Hinch to potentially deploy someone from the group out of the bullpen.

Detroit could also add to the relief corps directly. Harris didn’t differentiate between the rotation and bullpen when discussing the search for pitching. It’d be a surprise if the Tigers made a significant splash in the bullpen, which was a league average unit. Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Will Vest and Tyler Holton are a strong top four, but Detroit could bring in a veteran for the middle innings.

The Tigers haven’t been publicly tied to any specific relievers this offseason. Reports from before the Maeda deal linked them to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Seth Lugo and Luis Severino on the rotation front. A strike at Yamamoto or even Lugo seem like long shots given the general belief that Detroit will pursue shorter-term deals. Lugo seems likely to land a three-year pact, while the Tigers reportedly preferred to keep the commitment to one season. A one-year rebound contract seems likely for Severino. Wade Miley, Frankie Montas and James Paxton are among the other one-year possibilities in free agency.

Tigers Sign Kenta Maeda

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November 28: The club has now officially announced the deal, which is frontloaded. Maeda will make $14MM in 2024 and $10MM in 2025. The club’s 40-man roster count is now at 38.

November 26: The Tigers have added some experience to their young rotation, agreeing to sign right-hander Kenta Maeda to a two-year, $24MM contract.  Maeda will undergo his physical on Monday, so the deal should be officially announced within the next 24 hours.  Maeda is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Reports emerged earlier this week linking Maeda and the Tigers, though the Twins (Maeda’s former team) maintained interest.  However, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson writes that the Twins only had interest in Maeda on a one-year contract, so moving to a multi-year looks to have sealed the deal for the Tigers.  Minnesota will now have to deal with Maeda as an opponent on a division rival, as Maeda will join the third team of his Major League career as he enters his age-36 season.

With Eduardo Rodriguez possibly leaving Detroit in free agency, Maeda steps in as the veteran presence within a Tigers rotation that is still pretty unseasoned.  Most of the Tigers’ young arms were also set back by injuries during the club’s nightmarish 2022 season, though Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning pitched well when healthy, and Reese Olson stepped up as a legitimate rotation candidate.  At the moment, Maeda looks to be the No. 2 on the staff behind Skubal, with Manning, Olson, and Casey Mize (set to return after missing 2023 due to Tommy John surgery) looking like the provisional starting five.

This offseason marked the end of the incentive-heavy, eight-year, $25MM deal Maeda signed with the Dodgers back in January 2016, when Maeda first came to the majors from Nippon Professional Baseball.  Maeda’s earning power at the time was somewhat limited due to some concerns over his elbow, though he didn’t have any major arm-related injury issues over four years in Los Angeles before the Dodgers dealt him to the Twins during the 2019-20 offseason.  Maeda responded with an outstanding performance in the pandemic-shortened campaign, posting a 2.70 ERA in 66 2/3 innings and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

With a more modest 4.66 ERA in 106 1/3 frames in 2021, the injury bug then finally bit, as Maeda had to undergo the internal-brace version of Tommy John surgery.  Using the brace theoretically could have reduced Maeda’s time on the injured list, yet he ended up missing the entire 2022 season.  His comeback year in 2023 was also shortened by close to two months by a triceps strain, but the numbers were pretty solid overall when Maeda did take the mound.

Maeda posted a 4.23 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate over 104 1/3 innings for Minnesota.  Both the walk and strikeout rates were well above average, and Maeda wasn’t a high-velocity pitcher even before surgery, so his 90.9mph average was just slightly below his career norm.  Maeda did allow a lot of hard contact last year, which was something of a red flag considering that he very good and occasionally elite at inducing soft contact in the seasons prior to his brace procedure.

Between the hard-contact numbers, Maeda’s age, and injury history, the expectation was that Maeda’s market might be limited to a two-year (or two years with an option) contract this winter.  MLBTR ranked Maeda 25th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and predicted a two-year, $36MM pact for the right-hander.  The actual dollar figure will fall below our projection, perhaps suggesting that teams had concerns over Maeda’s ability to stay healthy.  Speculatively, it could also be that Maeda preferred to get a deal done sooner rather than later, perhaps as a nod to the strong interest shown by the Tigers this early in the winter.

There’s no doubt that the righty has a high ceiling of performance when he’s healthy, making the signing a pretty solid move for Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris.  After spending most of his first year in the job in evaluation mode, Harris has started to make some modest but noteworthy expenditures for veteran talent, both in signing Maeda and in trading for Mark Canha earlier this month.  Adding Maeda’s deal puts Detroit’s projected payroll (as per Roster Resource) at only $85.26MM, though Harris has spoken of exercising financial caution in the past, and it isn’t yet clear how much the Tigers are willing to spend this winter.

At the very least, the Tigers have the flexibility to perhaps explore a bigger move should an opportunity present itself, and Maeda’s signing perhaps opens such a door in a unique fashion.  Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press wrote this week that the Tigers were considering Maeda both for the pitcher’s own value and also to “establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market.”  This is particularly intriguing in the context of Detroit’s interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and if Harris and Tigers ownership were prepared to break the bank on a player, it might be for this circumstance of a 25-year-old Japanese ace who might have up to a decade of prime baseball still ahead of him.

Shota Imanaga is another prominent name coming to the majors from NPB this winter, even if Imanaga is 30 and his ceiling isn’t considered as high as Yamamoto’s.  It is also possible the Tigers might not be done with veteran pitchers from the Major League free agent market, as names like Seth Lugo and Luis Severino are also reportedly on Detroit’s radar as arms available on shorter-term and relatively less-expensive contracts.

An argument could’ve been made for the Twins to issue Maeda a qualifying offer as he entered free agency, yet with Minnesota planning to cut payroll next year, it is easy to see why the Twins might not have wanted to risk Maeda accepting the offer and locking in a $20.325MM salary for 2024.  By not issuing a qualifying offer, Minnesota won’t receive anything in compensation for Maeda’s departure.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link) was the first to report the agreement and the term length, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $24MM figure.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that Maeda’s deal was pending the pass of his physical.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tigers Sign Ryan Vilade To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have signed infielder/outfielder Ryan Vilade to a minor league contract, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.

Vilade, 25 in February, spent 2023 with the Pirates mostly in a non-roster capacity. He was claimed off waivers from the Rockies in the offseason but was designated for assignment on Opening Day, passing through waivers and sticking with the Bucs at Triple-A. He played 122 games at that level, striking out in 24.9% of his plate appearances but also walking at a 12.5% clip. He only hit six home runs on the year, leading to a batting line of .270/.370/.382 and wRC+ of 96.

He brings plenty of defensive versatility to the table, as he spent some time at first base, third base and all three outfield positions this year. He’s played some shortstop in the past, though not since 2019. He was limited to seven stolen bases in 2023, but he was in double digits in each previous year in which minor league games were played going back to 2018. He has three games of MLB experience, which came with the Rockies in 2021.

The Tigers already have plenty of outfielders, with Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Mark Canha and Akil Baddoo looking to split the playing time on the grass and perhaps in the designated hitter spot. Spencer Torkelson seems entrenched at first base but the hot corner is a bit more open. Matt Vierling is likely the favorite at that spot for now, though he hasn’t really done anything to lock the job down as he was around league average offensively and defensively in 2023. Andy Ibañez, Tyler Nevin, Nick Maton and Andre Lipcius are also on the roster and in the mix. Prospect Colt Keith could be the third baseman of the future but he’s also been getting some second base work lately. Justyn-Henry Malloy is also an attractive third base prospect, though he plays the outfield corners as well.

Vilade will give the club a bit more depth at that spot in a non-roster capacity, with the ability to pivot to other spots if injuries open up holes elsewhere. He is still quite young, has a couple of options and less than a year of service time, meaning he could be a long-term depth option for the club if he earns his way onto the roster.

Tigers Re-Sign Garrett Hill

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The Tigers and right-hander Garrett Hill have reunited, as Hill’s MLB.com profile page indicates that he signed a new minor league deal earlier this week.  It’s a quick reunion for the two sides, as the Tigers just non-tendered Hill last week to open up some space on their 40-man roster.

A 26th-round pick for Detroit in the 2018 draft, Hill made his MLB debut in 2022 on the fourth of July and started his first eight Major League games before moving into the bullpen.  The result was a respectable 4.03 ERA over 60 1/3 innings, even if a .247 BABIP helped cover up for some uninspiring secondary numbers.  Hill’s fortune turned last season, as he was tagged for a 9.19 ERA over 15 2/3 relief innings in the majors and even a 6.02 ERA in 46 1/3 frames for Triple-A Toledo.  While Hill’s control had only been decent earlier in his career, walks became an increasingly big problem in 2023, with a 14.3% walk rate over his time in Toledo.

Hill also spent little over a month on the Triple-A injured list, so it was a tough year all around for the righty.  He’ll look for a fresh start in his age-28 season, and it makes sense why the Tigers would want to keep Hill in the fold.  Beyond his swingman potential, Hill has consistently missed a lot of bats over his minor league career — even amidst his struggles, Hill still posted a 28.7% strikeout rate at Triple-A in 2023.  That strikeout potential has yet to translate at the big league level, but there’s no risk for Detroit in bringing him back for another look on a minors contract.

Carson Kelly's Plans For Offseason Improvements

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  • It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.  Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch.  “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.

Twins Interested In Kenta Maeda Reunion

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TODAY: Negotiations between Maeda and the Tigers “have intensified in recent days,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).

NOVEMBER 24: Free agent right-hander Kenta Maeda reportedly has “serious” interest from the Tigers but a reunion with the Twins is still possible. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that both the Tigers and Twins are interested in Maeda, though there’s nothing to indicate his market his limited to just those two clubs.

Maeda, 36 in April, has a long track record of being an effective major leaguer, with an earned run average of 3.92 in 190 games dating back to 2016. The last few years have been fairly inconsistent, with high highs and low lows. In 2020, he posted an ERA of 2.70 in 11 starts during the shortened season, finishing second to Shane Bieber in Cy Young voting. But his ERA jumped to 4.66 the next year and he ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John, on his throwing elbow.

He was able to get back on the mound in 2023 and finished the year with a 4.23 ERA, though that figure disguises how good he actually was. In his fourth outing of the year, he was pummelled for 10 earned runs in three innings against the Yankees and went on the injured list due to a triceps strain right after. He returned in June and put up an ERA of 3.36 the rest of the way, striking out 29% of opponents while walking just 7%. Any pitcher will look better if you ignore their worst start but it seems fair to conclude that Maeda wasn’t 100% healthy in that nightmare outing against the Yanks. Despite his age and recent inconsistency, MLBTR predicted he could get a two-year, $36MM contract based on his strong second half and previous track record.

That the Twins are interested in a reunion makes sense on a couple of fronts. At the end of the 2023 campaign, they lost not only Maeda but also Sonny Gray to free agency, subtracting two key pieces from the rotation. Chris Paddack returned from his own Tommy John rehab and could perhaps soften the blow of those departures, but the starting rotation is clearly weaker than it was not too long ago. Paddack should slot in somewhere with Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, giving the club four solid options. Louie Varland had some home run troubles in the majors last year but showed enough potential there and in Triple-A that he could be considered a reasonable fifth starter. But he still has a couple of options and just 94 innings of big league experience to his name, making it sensible to bump him down to the sixth spot.

The club has also generally avoided long-term contracts for free agent pitchers since Derek Falvey took over as the club’s primary baseball decision maker after the 2016 season. They did give a four-year extension to López but the largest contract they’ve given to a pitcher apart from that was the two-year, $20MM deal for Michael Pineda back in 2019. Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high, but Maeda’s age will prevent his market from going too crazy, which would suit the M.O. of the Twins.

It might also work with their specific financial concerns, as uncertainty around their broadcast rights is seemingly going to cause a reduction in payroll. They had an Opening Day payroll of $154MM in 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but could potentially wind up in the $125-140MM range in 2024. Roster Resource estimates that they are already at $125MM, which perhaps doesn’t leave a ton of room for an estimated $18MM salary for Maeda. But they also have a potential surplus of position players and could perhaps free up some extra cash that way.

Jorge Polanco is making $10.5MM in 2024, with a $750K buyout on a 2025 club option. Max Kepler is making $10MM and is slated for free agency after. Christian Vázquez has two years and $20MM left on his deal. Kyle Farmer is projected for a salary of $6.6MM in his final arbitration season. Those players have all either been in trade rumors or speculated as candidates, with the club having enough position player talent to theoretically move someone and still have a strong core. If the club ends up flipping one or more of these guys, it becomes easier to see them fitting Maeda into the budget.

Ultimately, Maeda is probably just one of many options the Twins are considering. Similarly, while the Tigers and Twins have been specifically connected to Maeda, it seems fair to expect that there are far more clubs at the table. The fierce competition for rotation help has led to roughly half the league reportedly checking in on pitchers from Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Seth Lugo, while even Noah Syndergaard is drawing interest despite a nightmare season in 2023.

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

How Aggressive Will The Tigers Be This Winter?

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The ill-fated Miguel Cabrera extension is off the books in Detroit, leading to the most payroll flexibility the team has had in quite some time. As it stands, the only three players on guaranteed contracts for the 2024 season are Javier Baez, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly. That trio combines for $40MM in guaranteed salary. Only Baez is signed beyond the 2024 season. Detroit also has a small arbitration class. Left-hander Tarik Skubal, righty Casey Mize, catcher Jake Rogers and outfielder Akil Baddoo project to earn a combined $7.5MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample payroll space available in the Motor City. Detroit trotted out a payroll as high as $200MM back in 2017, albeit under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch. Since his son, Chris, took over as the team’s control person, the Tigers haven’t fielded an Opening Day payroll north of $135MM. Then again, the Tigers have been rebuilding for much of Chris’ time in charge of the club, so aggressive spending hasn’t typically on the radar.

Many Tigers fans entered the current offseason expecting some degree of change in that regard, however. The AL Central is perhaps the sport’s weakest division, and the Tigers have some interesting young players emerging to form a core group. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene both took big steps forward in 2023. Skubal returned from flexor surgery and pitched like a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm. Reese Olson looks like a mid-rotation piece. Kerry Carpenter has swatted 26 homers and hit .277/.334/.473 in his first 149 big league games. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize will come back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Jason Foley, Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange all had nice years in the bullpen (Lange’s command issues notwithstanding). It’s easy to see the reasons for optimism.

At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily portend a return to the Tigers’ former status as one of the league’s most aggressive offseason spenders. For one thing, the now-former front office regime helmed by Al Avila attempted to reestablish the Tigers as just that when signing Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former hasn’t worked out at all and now stands as one of baseball’s most immovable/undesirable contracts. The latter performed well enough to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM after an uneven tenure in Detroit.

New president of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely be wary of further saddling the team with unwanted contracts. His most recent organization — the Giants, where he was GM — has a recent track record of clearly preferring shorter-term, manageable commitments in free agency. They haven’t inked a free agent for more than three years under Farhan Zaidi’s watch as president of baseball operations. That doesn’t mean Harris will operate from the exact same playbook, but it’s notable context nonetheless.

To that end, the general expectation surrounding the Tigers this winter has been that the team will at least one, if not two arms in free agency. Adding a bat to the middle of the lineup also seems like a sensible enough fit. The question is: to what extent are the Tigers willing to spend?

Recent reports have indicated that the Tigers have interest in both Seth Lugo and Kenta Maeda, for instance, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press wrote this morning that the Tigers prefer Lugo on a one-year deal. He’s understandably seeking a three-year pact after a breakout 2023 campaign. Petzold also reports that rebound candidate Luis Severino is on the Tigers’ radar. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal this winter. Maeda is generally expected to sign for no more than two years. Between those three targets, a preference for shorter-term additions seems to be on the table for the Tigers.

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic frames things similarly in his latest mailbag, writing that the Tigers seem likelier to dish out multiple short-term deals — similar to last year’s one-year pact with Michael Lorenzen — than they are to ink a notable arm on a heftier deal. The Tigers reportedly checked in on Lance Lynn before he signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Cardinals. Stavenhagen suggests that contracts of that nature (and the Cardinals’ one-year, $12MM deal with Kyle Gibson) are roughly what one could expect the Tigers to offer in free agency. Similarly, he writes that Canha could be the team’s most significant position-player acquisition this winter.

There’s no firm indication that the Tigers won’t be a bit more aggressive in free agency and pursue some notable names on multi-year deals. Unexpected market circumstances can always emerge, perhaps leading a team to land a major free agent they never expected early in the winter. The Twins surely didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason expecting to sign Carlos Correa, for instance, and the Tigers’ ample flexibility leaves them open for opportunistic adds of that nature, should they arise.

The trade market also can’t be discounted as a means of adding some notable talent. Harris and his staff proved over the past year that they’re plenty willing to make deals with other clubs. Since the beginning of last offseason, Detroit has traded Joe Jimenez to Atlanta and Gregory Soto and Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia (in separate swaps). The Tigers picked up Zach McKinstry in a spring trade with the Cubs earlier this year and added Canha in a deal with Milwaukee just a few weeks ago. It’s perfectly reasonable to think they might be more active in trades than in free agency; some combination of both avenues is likely at the end of the day.

However, those hoping for a bigger splash may want to look back to Harris’ comments earlier this month when asked about having sufficient resources to sign a premier free agent (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News): “If we feel like we are close enough to where a big free agent pushes us over the edge, sure, we have an ownership that’s going to support us to be able to do that. But, as this game has taught us time and time again, sometimes, teams over-estimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back. We have to be really careful.”

Tigers Interested In Seth Lugo

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Nov. 22: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that while Lugo is indeed of interest to the Tigers, they prefer him on a one-year deal. Lugo is seeking a three-year guarantee this winter, per the report.

Nov. 20: The Tigers are interested in starting pitchers, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. They reportedly checked in with right-hander Lance Lynn before he got his new deal with the Cardinals and Morosi adds that free agent righty Seth Lugo is of interest to the club.

Lugo, now 34, shifted to a starting gig in 2023 after many years of working as a reliever. He took to the switch with aplomb, throwing 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts with a 3.57 earned run average. He struck out 23.2% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6% clip and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. He declined a $7.5MM player option to stick with the Padres for 2024 and MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal worth $42MM this offseason.

It’s plenty sensible that the Tigers are looking for rotation additions to make up for recent subtractions. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his deal while righty Spencer Turnbull was non-tendered, resulting in both of those players now being free agents. The remaining rotation definitely has some talent but it comes with question marks.

Lefty Tarik Skubal looked great in 2023, returning from flexor tendon surgery to put up an ERA of 2.80, but he made just 15 starts and tossed only 80 1/3 innings. Even if he can stay healthy next year, he may push himself into workload concerns, having set career high of 149 1/3 frames in 2021. Matt Manning suffered a couple of foot fractures and was also limited to 15 starts in the most recent season. His 3.58 ERA looks fine at first glance but his 15.8% strikeout rate is way below league average and he benefited from an unsustainable .214 batting average on balls in play. He tossed 133 2/3 innings in the minors in 2019 but hasn’t reached that level since. Casey Mize missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Reese Olson had a solid debut but still has barely 100 innings of major league experience. Sawyer Gipson-Long has just four big league starts. Joey Wentz, Alex Faedo and Mason Englert are on the roster but had uninspiring results in 2023. Wilmer Flores and Keider Montero recently got added to the roster but haven’t debuted in the big leagues yet. Considering all of the variability here, it makes sense for the club to consider bringing in a stabilizing force.

The club was recently connected to Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that seems like more a long shot considering he will surely require a nine-figure deal of some kind. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has been fairly cautious since taking over and there’s been little to indicate he’s planning to break from that right now. Lynn ultimately only required a one-year deal and Lugo’s next contract will be somewhat capped by his age.

Financially, there’s nothing stopping the Tigers from making whatever addition they decide upon. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll at just $74MM. The figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts had Detroit at $122MM on Opening Day in 2023 and $135MM the year before. Javier Báez is the only player under contract beyond 2024. It’s unknown exactly how much the club plans to spend this offseason but they have enough room to do a few things before they even come close to recent spending levels. If not Lugo, other pitchers that will likely sign short-term deals include Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha and many more.

Tigers Showing “Serious” Interest In Kenta Maeda

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The Tigers have “serious” interest in free agent righty Kenta Maeda, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The club views him as a possible veteran stabilizer for a young rotation and also hopes a potential Maeda deal would help to “establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market” in the future, Petzold writes.

Following Eduardo Rodriguez’s decision to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, Detroit’s starting staff currently projects to include Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Reese Olson. Righty Sawyer Gipson-Long, 26 next month, posted solid results in his first four MLB starts last year but struggled in Triple-A as well. Relievers Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo have all made starts in the majors but struggled in a rotation role. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mason Englert, survived the season on the 40-man roster but could head to Triple-A to begin the year. No one else on the Tigers’ 40-man roster has meaningful experience as a starter in the Majors.

Some form of veteran pickup is needed, and Maeda somewhat quietly had a stronger season than many realize in 2023. This past season was the veteran righty’s first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and he gave the Twins 104 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball with strong strikeout and walk rates  of 27.3% and 6.5%, respectively.

However, Maeda’s end-of-season numbers are perhaps disproportionately impacted by one catastrophic start. On April 26, with the Twins playing host to the Red Sox, Maeda was shelled for 10 runs in just three innings. He landed on the injured list immediately after that outing and wound up missing nearly two months due to a triceps strain. That day’s 89 mph average fastball was his lowest of the entire season. It seems fair to presume that he was not pitching at close to full strength that afternoon.

Maeda’s return from the injured list included five shutout frames against the same Tigers who are now showing interest in him, and from that point forth he was one of the league’s more effective starters. In his final 88 1/3 innings, Maeda turned in a sharp 3.36 earned run average while fanning a hefty 29% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate. He’s still a soft-tosser by today’s standards, but the 91.2 mph he averaged on his heater following his return from the injured list is still 2.2 mph faster than the 89 he averaged in that meltdown against the Yankees. Maeda also averaged 5 2/3 innings per start down the stretch, showing a bit more ability to work through a lineup than many of the five-inning arms that populate today’s rotations.

It’s been generally quiet thus far on the Maeda front, with few teams prominently linked to the 35-year-old righty. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said after the season that he wouldn’t rule out reunions with any of his team’s free agents, Maeda included, but Minnesota is also expected to trim payroll by $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding the team’s future television rights. Trades of Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and/or Christian Vazquez could create some extra leeway for Minnesota to pursue a reunion with Maeda, but there’s no indication it’s a serious consideration at this time.

Despite the lack of chatter surrounding Maeda to this point, however, he figures to draw wide-reaching interest. Beyond the excellent run following his triceps injury this season, the righty was the runner-up finisher in 2020 American League Cy Young voting and has long since established himself as a viable mid-rotation presence. In 866 1/3 career big league innings between the Dodgers and Twins, Maeda sports a 3.92 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. His postseason resume includes another 41 2/3 frames of 3.24 ERA ball.

As for the Tigers, there’s virtually no free agent they can’t pursue from a purely financial standpoint. Javier Baez is the only player on a guaranteed contract beyond the 2024 season, and next year’s payroll currently projects at $74MM. That’s nowhere near 2017’s franchise-record $200MM Opening Day payroll, and while that outlay was committed under the late Mike Ilitch, even under his successor and son Chris, the Tigers have trotted out a payroll as high as $135MM (2021).

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