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Dontrelle For Lugo?

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The Tigers 2009 season is going to be reliant on some bounce back candidates to do just that.

According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Tigers will need to guess which of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson will bounce back. And aside from Verlander, they will more than likely want to deal one of them to scale back an already unsustainable projected team salary of $130MM.

Some speculation by Morosi: The Tigers need a shortstop and could swap Dontrelle Willis for Boston’s Julio Lugo. Both guys are signed through 2010, Willis making $22MM and Lugo making $18MM. The Red Sox have shown a willingness to take on reclamation projects in pitchers like Wade Miller and Bartolo Colon, so why not Dontrelle when they have a more favorable (and fan-friendly) option at shortstop in Jed Lowrie? The Tigers could also use the spare $4MM and the Red Sox could afford the risk. Morosi quotes Jim Duquette:

"That can be an effective way to swap players who’ve had below-average years," Duquette said, when asked about that approach. "Lugo would not be a bad player in that situation, as long as you’re not taking on any more money. It would be a break-even proposition. "You take the position player and hope that Lugo has more of a bounce-back year."

Tigers Could Re-Sign Freddy Garcia

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With payroll looking tight for 2009, re-signing starter Freddy Garcia at a reasonable price would be a great move for the Tigers.  John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press thinks Garcia wants to stay. 

His first big league start of the year was excellent – just two hits and one walk in five innings.  Garcia averaged 88.8 mph on his fastball, down 2.6 mph from his effective 2005 season.  Still, he’d be a fine addition to a questionable ’09 rotation.  The Tigers will hopefully use their goodwill to sign him before he hits the open market.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Here’s what they have for 2009:

C – Brandon Inge – $6.3MM
C – Dusty Ryan – $400K
1B – Miguel Cabrera – $15MM
2B – Placido Polanco – $4.6MM
SS – Ramon Santiago – $575K+
3B – Carlos Guillen – $10MM
IF – Michael Hollimon – $400K
IF/OF – Ryan Raburn – $400K
LF – Matt Joyce – $400K
CF – Curtis Granderson – $3.5MM
RF – Magglio Ordonez – $18MM
OF – Marcus Thames – $1.275MM+
DH – Gary Sheffield – $14MM

SP – Justin Verlander – $500K+
SP – Jeremy Bonderman – $12.5MM
SP – Armando Galarraga – $400K
SP – Zach Miner – $410K
SP – Nate Robertson – $7MM

RP – Fernando Rodney – $1.7MM+
RP – Gary Glover – $1.075MM+
RP – Bobby Seay – $780K+
RP – Joel Zumaya – $420K+
RP – Aquilino Lopez – $400K
RP – Clay Rapada – $400K
RP – Freddy Dolsi – $400K

Other commitments: Edgar Renteria – $3MM buyout, Rick Porcello – $1.2MM, Dontrelle Willis – $10MM

The Tigers have about $115MM committed for 2009, not including arbitration raises to Santiago, Thames, Rodney, Glover, Seay, Zumaya, and Verlander.  So, they should be over $120MM with the current group.  The Tigers had an opening day payroll of $137.7MM in 2008.  Lynn Henning says to expect a drastic payroll reduction – "perhaps by $40 million or more."

As Henning notes, the Tigers may need to trade Ordonez to slice payroll down to the $100MM range.  Maggs is the team’s highest-paid player, and he has a fine .892 OPS.  Ordonez essentially comes with a three-year, $48MM contract.  Certain teams might find that contract acceptable, but not if the price also includes quality young players.  The Braves might be a good match if the Tigers are mainly looking for salary relief.

No team would assume the contracts of Sheffield, Robertson, or Willis, so there’s no point in trading them.  Polanco, Bonderman, and Thames probably have trade value, but the Tigers don’t necessarily have ready replacements.

Even if the Tigers move Ordonez’s contract, they won’t have much left over for free agents.  It’s hard to picture marquee free agents like Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, or Rafael Furcal being considered if Henning’s report is accurate.  They might be able to dig around the bargain bin, re-upping Freddy Garcia and adding a nondescript veteran reliever.

The Tigers can contend in 2009, but it’ll probably require comebacks from current players such as Bonderman, Willis, Verlander, Robertson, Sheffield, Rodney, and Zumaya.  The Tigers have one blue-chip prospect in Rick Porcello, who might be able to contribute in the second half. 

Odds and Ends: Cashman, Roberts, Lowe

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Rounding up links for Thursday…

Odds and Ends: Lee, Rogers, Beltre, Darvish

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Today’s random linkage…

  • The Indians signed 21 year-old pitcher Chen-Chang Lee out of Taiwan.  Anthony Castrovince has the scouting report.  East Windup Chronicle says the bonus is in the $350-400K range.
  • Kenny Rogers suggested Jim Leyland remove him from the rotation.  Rogers still thinks he can pitch effectively next year at 44, however.
  • Geoff Baker notes an extra benefit to delaying Adrian Beltre’s surgery – the playing time could nudge him toward Type A status when he reaches free agency after the ’09 season.
  • Ken Davidoff of Newsday says Yu Darvish will probably not be posted this winter but could be after the ’09 season.  Davidoff says the Giants, Orioles, and D’Backs have been heavily scouting Japan this year.
  • The Cubs are looking at contract extensions for Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry, according to Gordon Wittenmeyer.

Odds and Ends: Alvarez, Williams, Tazawa

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Today’s links…

  • Chat today, 2pm CST.
  • Great stuff on the Pedro Alvarez situation from Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein.  Goldstein’s source says the union will claim that the Pirates and MLB engaged in a premeditated conspiracy, perhaps designed to take Scott Boras out of the picture by negotiating past midnight.  The article is subscription-only.  At $40 a year, BP is well worth it.
  • It seems that Type B status is slipping away for Tigers reliever Kyle Farnsworth.  Ivan Rodriguez recently fell from A to B, but the Yankees may choose not to offer him arbitration.
  • Baseball America’s Jim Callis says Mariners top draft pick Joshua Fields wants $2MM, while the team is holding firm at $1.5MM.  Fields is advised by Scott Boras.
  • Interesting note from last week…Bernie Williams is training and does not consider himself retired.
  • Patrick Newman discusses the Junichi Tazawa situation in-depth.  He says NPB’s commissioner plans to meet with Bud Selig.  One reason MLB looks extra-appealing to Tazawa: NPB limits draft pick bonuses to $1MM.
  • Geoff Baker discusses Jose Guillen.

Mets Likely To Pass On K-Rod?

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Newsday’s Ken Davidoff spoke to a "person informed of the Mets’ thinking," and learned that they will not be signing free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez.  This is not because of the $10.5MM owed to Billy Wagner next year – that’s a sunk cost.  It’s just that the Mets would rather try internal options than hand out another record-breaking contract.  Davidoff does not expect the Mets to pursue Brian Fuentes either.  He sees the Mets re-signing Luis Ayala and then focusing on starting pitching.

Davidoff examines the likelihood of the Angels, Cardinals, or Tigers signing Rodriguez.  He seems to consider the Cards the favorite.  The Cardinals may entertain re-signing Jason Isringhausen, but that wouldn’t take them out of the market for a closer. 

A closer vacancy and a ton of money…not many teams fit that description.  Will K-Rod have a disappointing winter?

Cafardo’s Latest: Salty, Renteria, Pudge

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Let’s take a look at the latest column from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

  • The Red Sox are "intrigued" by Rangers catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (I believe they have been for some time).  Jamey Newberg would like to see Clay Buchholz in a Rangers uniform, but admits the deal would have to be expanded.
  • The Red Sox will not have to pay the $3MM buyout on Edgar Renteria if the Tigers decline his $11MM option for ’09.  The free agent market for shorstops is weak, but the Tigers will probably look elsewhere given Renteria’s .269/.318/.375 showing.
  • Cafardo wonders if Jason Bay or Matt Holliday will be on the Braves’ radar this winter (both are signed through ’09).  You’d have to think the Sox will want to keep Bay.  The Braves will have $30-40MM to spend, and Bobby Cox expects two starting pitchers to be added.
  • Cafardo talked to a scout who feels Ivan Rodriguez still has something left to offer despite his poor performance for the Yankees.  Ideally he’d sign a one-year deal.  It won’t be with the Yankees; Jorge Posada noted that Pudge is "going to have to go somewhere else."

Tigers Could Deal Ordonez?

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Last week, John Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press contemplated the Tigers’ offseason plans. Their payroll projects at $130MM assuming no free agent signings or extensions; however, according to Morosi the Tigers’ revenue can only sustain $110MM. Owner Mike Ilitch wants a World Series but spending more doesn’t seem likely without shaking things up.

Morosi thinks the Tigers might have to trade Magglio Ordonez:

"They need a shortstop who covers more ground than Edgar Renteria. They need a closer, unless they are comfortable with Fernando Rodney (36 innings, 25 walks) protecting leads in the ninth inning. They need one more setup man, because of the uncertainty surrounding Joel Zumaya’s health. They also need to improve their rotation."

Have fun with that one. Magglio is set to make $18MM in ’09, followed by team options of $18MM and $15MM in ’10 and ’11, so any realistic trades need to be with teams that can shoulder that contract.

Despite a disappointing campaign, offense is still the one area of depth for the Tigers so this move would make sense.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Hudson, Ordonez, Fielder, Howard

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Let’s swing through Ken Rosenthal’s latest column.

  • Rosenthal names the Mets, Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Rockies, and Cardinals as speculative fits for free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson.  Obviously several of those scenarios would involve shuffling players to other positions or trades.  The Yankees’ infield defense could certainly use the boost.
  • Rosenthal considers Frank Wren’s midseason trip to Japan a sign that he might be active in that market.
  • The Tigers may shop Magglio Ordonez for pitching this winter.  Maggs will need fewer than 500 plate appearances next year to cause his 2010 and 2011 options to vest.  So he’s essentially owed $48MM over three years.
  • Don’t forget two other sluggers who may be available this winter: Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard.  It works well for the Brewers and Phillies, as the free agent market is weak at first base.
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