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Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Brandon Nimmo, Eddie Rosario Reportedly Being Discussed In Trade Talks

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While it was overshadowed entirely by a much bigger move, last night’s swap of Nomar Mazara from the Rangers to the White Sox also represented a notable bit of action in the outfield market. The landscape hasn’t changed much since the start of the offseason but could begin to come into focus now that the biggest starting pitching moves have been made.

It seems the Mets are still working things out in their outfield situation. Word is that they’re willing to consider parting with Brandon Nimmo, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). The New York org is reportedly still kicking around concepts with the Pirates regarding Starling Marte, one of the market’s top trade candidates. Some potential trade scenarios could involve the younger, cheaper, and more controllable Nimmo. It’s not specifically clear whether Nimmo is otherwise open for bidding, but it seems the New York org is doing everything it can to land a true center fielder — even if it means parting with the left-handed-hitting OBP machine.

Meanwhile, the Twins are discussing Eddie Rosario with several other clubs, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The 28-year-old has been a mainstay in the Minnesota outfield but dipped a bit last year to a .276/.300/.500 batting line. He did launch 32 long balls and performed better in the on-base department in the prior two seasons. The Twins shouldn’t really need to move salary — Rosario is projected to earn $8.9MM with one more arb season to come — but may see an opportunity to pick up talent (especially in the pitching department) while reinvesting the payroll space and clearing the way for the near-term ascent of Alex Kirilloff.

The potential market for Rosario isn’t yet evident. The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Rosario, per Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). But the Miami organization considers the Twins’ asking price “extremely high” at the moment. That was also the team’s stance with regard to Nomar Mazara, who ended up being dealt instead to the White Sox yesterday. The pursuit of Rosario and Mazara offers some insight into the thinking of the Miami organization. It seems obvious the organization is willing to take on a decent bit of salary and won’t limit itself to players with lengthy control rights. The club has a long-stated desire to add some corner pop and is also exploring the possibilities on the open market.

Eddie Rosario Changes Representation

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Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario has changed agencies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Roc Nation Sports will represent Rosario going forward.

Rosario, who turned 28 in September, is one of many major leaguers fresh off a career-best season in the power department. Across 590 plate appearances, Rosario smashed 32 home runs, helping the Twins amass a record 307 as a team, and posted a .224 ISO – both personal highs for him since he debuted in 2015. At the same time, though, Rosario struggled more than ever to get on base. He ultimately slashed an uninspiring .276/.300/.500 owing in large part to an inability to draw walks.

While Rosario did strike out at a meager 14.6 percent clip this year, he collected free passes just 3.7 percent of the time. Considering his game’s largely predicated on putting the ball in play, the career-low .273 BABIP Rosario logged was especially deleterious. But if we’re to believe Statcast, Rosario wasn’t really the victim of poor luck in 2019. After all, there was almost no difference between his real weighted on-base average (.329) and his expected wOBA (.330).

Despite his flawed campaign, the counting stats Rosario has put up over the past few years have him in good position as he nears his second-last trip to arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rosario will earn $8.9MM in 2020, though it’s up in the air whether the Twins will retain the three-time 20-home run hitter or attempt to move him in a trade.

Rosario’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

AL Central Notes: Colome, Ramirez, Twins

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In the wake of the Nationals’ dramatic NLDS victory over the Dodgers last night, it is perhaps fitting that October 10 marks another red-letter day in Washington baseball history….not to mention Minnesota baseball history.  It was on this day back in 1924 that the Twins won their first World Series, though they were still several decades away from becoming the Twins, as the franchise played in D.C. as the Washington Senators from 1901-1960.  The Senators beat the New York Giants in a dramatic Game Seven that lasted 12 innings, with the legendary Walter Johnson earning the win after tossing four shutout innings in relief.  1924 marked the franchise’s only Series title in Washington, as the Senators/Twins wouldn’t again win it all until 1987.

Some items from around the AL Central…

  • Though Alex Colome is projected to earn $10.3MM in salary next year, the Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) doesn’t think the high arbitration price tag will prevent the White Sox from bringing the closer back in 2020.  GM Rick Hahn indicated after the season that the performances of Colome and Aaron Bummer as Chicago’s late-game duo “makes you feel real good about their spot going forward,” and Fegan notes that the Sox likely wouldn’t have acquired Colome from the Mariners last winter if they were worried about paying him in 2020, given how save totals predictably lead to big raises for closers in the arbitration process.  Both advanced metrics (.215 BABIP, and a 2.64 wOBA that was far below his .324 xwOBA) and ERA predictors (4.08 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, 4.38 SIERA) indicated that Colome was rather fortunate to post his 2.80 ERA over 61 innings last season, so a non-tender or a trade is perhaps feasible if the White Sox felt a bigger course correction was on the way next year.
  • Jose Ramirez is open to playing either second base or third base next season, though he has told Indians management that he doesn’t want to shift between the two positions, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  Ramirez played exclusively at third base in 2019 and spent most of his time at the hot corner in 2018, though he moved over to second base late in the year to accommodate the Tribe’s acquisition of Josh Donaldson.  Ramirez also more or less split time between third (736 2/3 innings) and second (577 1/3 innings) in 2017 due to an injury to regular second baseman Jason Kipnis.  Over the last three seasons in question, Ramirez has been an above-average defender at third base as per the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, while UZR/150 has been a bit less impressed with his work as a second baseman, though the 27-year-old is still overall pretty solid at the keystone.  “I think we’re comfortable that Jose can play both at a premium defensive quality,” manager Terry Francona said.  “I agree with him, going back and forth is hard, especially at this point in his career.”  Ramirez’s ability to handle either infield role gives Cleveland some flexibility in pursuing infield help this winter, assuming the team doesn’t rely on some combination of Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, or Andrew Velazquez to handle the other position in 2020.
  • The Twins are already planning to chase some front-of-the-rotation pitchers this offseason, and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune opines that outfielder Eddie Rosario could be “the logical trading chip” to try and land an arm.  Rosario hit .276/.300/.500 with 32 homers over 590 PA for Minnesota last season, and he has 83 total home runs over the last three seasons.  After posting a decent .326 OBP in 2017-18, however, Rosario had much more difficult getting on base this past year, and he also didn’t have a good defensive year as a left fielder (though he did fare much better defensively in 2018).  Trading Rosario would result in a projected starting outfield of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Marwin Gonzalez, with top prospects Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach all potentially available as late-season call-ups.  More veteran outfield depth could also be added at a lower price than Rosario, who is projected to earn a hefty arbitration raise to $8.9MM, up significantly from his $4.19MM salary in 2019.

Eddie Rosario Day-To-Day With Hamstring Tightness

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After Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario left today’s game early, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports that the move was simply precautionary, and that Rosario is day-to-day with hamstring tightness.

The 27-year-old Rosario was pulled from Wednesday’s matchup with the White Sox prior to the sixth inning after going hitless in his first two times at-bat. With an off day tomorrow, the Twins star will have a well-needed chance to rest and recover ahead of Friday’s series opener against the Tigers.

At this juncture, it doesn’t seem that there is cause for concern regarding Rosario’s availability in the future, though the injury certainly doesn’t come at an opportune time for the Twins, who find themselves in a tight race with Cleveland for the division crown. And with a loss on Wednesday marking a series loss at home against the White Sox, the AL Central leaders can ill afford to go an extended period without one of their most productive offensive performers.

Rosario has been a key player in the Twins’ season-long power surge, with his 27 home runs already matching the career-best mark he put up in 2017, despite playing 34 fewer games. By sheer volume stats, it looks that Rosario is on pace for a career year, though context-adjusted stats like wRC+ prefer Rosario’s previous two seasons to the current one.

While Rosario has always been known as a free swinger, he appears to have taken that approach to another level this year, with his walk rate dipping to the lowest it’s been since 2016, and his strikeout rate at a career low. Evidently, the aggressive approach has paid off in the form of boosted power numbers, though it’s also come at the cost of his OBP, which sits at .308, considerably lower than the cumulative .326 mark he has posted over the last two years.

Regardless, his presence in the Twins’ everyday lineup is imperative for a team that has minimal margin for error in an intensifying division race.

Twins Activate Rosario, Cron; Buxton Placed On IL; Morin Designated For Assignment

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4:35pm: The Twins announced that Byron Buxton has been placed on the 7-day concussion list and Morin has been designated for assignment. Rosario and Cron have also formally been reinstated from the IL.

4:12pm: Morin’s DFA will likely be one of the moves made to accommodate the returns of both Eddie Rosario and C.J. Cron from the injured list, Hayes tweets.

3:55pm: The Twins will designate right-hander Mike Morin for assignment today, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic (Twitter links). There’s no word on what the corresponding roster move will be, although Hayes adds that a trade doesn’t appear to be pending. The Twins already had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster.

Morin, 28, has given the Twins 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball, though there’s ample reason to be skeptical of that earned run average. The former Angels/Mariners/Royals righty has only whiffed 11 hitters in that time (4.8 K/9) and has benefited from a deflated .230 average on balls put into play against him. He’s done a nice job keeping the ball on the ground (47.4 percent) and avoiding walks (just two allowed), but Morin’s results have also begun to fade as of late.

In his past 11 outings, Morin has been tagged for 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and two walks in 11 1/3 innings. He’s also hit a batter in that time, and two of the 13 hits he yielded have been home runs. ERA alternatives like FIP (4.49), xFIP (4.86) and SIERA (4.62) all peg Morin as a candidate for further regression, and Statcast also feels that he’s been fortunate to generate the results he’s gotten so far (.319 xwOBA vs. his actual .277 wOBA).

Minnesota will have a week to trade Morin, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, meaning any team that picks him up either via trade or waiver claim would need to carry Morin on the MLB roster.

AL Injury Notes: Luzardo, Stroman, Twins, Mize

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There’s now a rough timeline for Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was agonizingly close to a full return from a shoulder injury — and his first taste of the majors — when he suffered a lat strain days ago. Fortunately, the hyped 21-year-old could be ready to begin a new rehab assignment within four or five weeks. That’s about as quick a potential bounce back as might have been hoped for a player who’ll assuredly be handled with extra care. It seems there’s still a reasonable shot of Luzardo being a late-season MLB option, though the A’s will not be able to assume that they’ll get a shot in the arm from the top prospect.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
  • There was some good news and bad news today on the injury front for the Twins, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Outfielder Eddie Rosario, on the IL with a sprained ankle since June 28, is making progress and should return shortly after the All-Star break, manager Rocco Baldelli suggested. Meanwhile, the left oblique strain that forced fan favorite and utilityman Willians Astudillo to the IL on June 27 is “significant,” per Baldelli. It could keep Astudillo out “for the foreseeable future,” Park writes.
  • Tigers prospect Casey Mize has resumed throwing after a recent injury scare, GM Al Avila told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). That’s not of immediate consequence for the Detroit club, but is certainly excellent news for the team’s long-term outlook. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and one of the majors’ elite farmhands, has been on the minor league IL with right shoulder inflammation for three weeks. The 22-year-old laid waste to his competition before then, combining for a 0.92 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 78 innings between High-A and Double-A ball.

Twins Place Eddie Rosario On Injured List, Promote Lewis Thorpe

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The Twins announced that they’ve placed left fielder Eddie Rosario on the injured list prior to tonight’s series opener against the White Sox in Chicago. Utility infielder Ehire Adrianza has been activated from the IL in a corresponding move. Minnesota also optioned righty Zack Littell to Triple-A and promoted lefty Lewis Thorpe for his MLB debut.

Rosario exited Wednesday’s game after spraining his ankle while rounding first base. After the game, manager Rocco Baldelli indicated that the injury wasn’t believed to be severe. That may very well still be the case, but the issue is apparently enough to push Rosario, an All-Star hopeful, to the sideline for at least the next nine days.

Rosario, 27, has already belted 20 homers on the season while frequently serving as the Twins’ cleanup hitter. He’s batting .282/.312/.529 through 324 plate appearances and has added 14 doubles and a triple to go along with those 20 long balls. He’s also played above-average defense in left field according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Twins have had a series of injuries in the outfield recently, as Byron Buxton and utilitymen Marwin Gonzalez and Willians Astudillo (both capable of playing in the outfield) have all landed on the IL. Buxton is reportedly close to returning from the IL, but the Twins are presently relying on Max Kepler, Jake Cave and infielder Luis Arraez in the outfield. Minnesota called up outfield prospect Lamonte Wade Jr. yesterday to help out in the short term, and designated hitter Nelson Cruz is of course no stranger to the outfield corners (although the Twins have yet to play him in the field). A healthy Minnesota outfield is among the best defensive units in the game, but it’ll apparently be a bit before Twins fans see Rosario, Buxton and Kepler roving the outfield.

As for Thorpe, the 23-year-old Aussie will add some length to a pitching staff that was depleted in yesterday’s 18-inning marathon. Thorpe, signed as an international free agent back in 2013, has long been considered one of the Twins’ most promising young arms. He cracked Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects in 2014 (No. 101) and in 2015 (No. 91). He entered the year ranked ninth among Twins prospects at MLB.co and 15th at Fangraphs.

Thorpe’s development was slowed when he missed all of the 2015-16 seasons due to elbow troubles that culminated in Tommy John surgery. He enjoyed a strong season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2018, pitching to a combined 3.54 ERA with 10.9 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 129 2/3 innings of work. He’s been knocked around for a 5.71 ERA through 69 1/3 innings thus far in 2019 thanks to a bloated home-run rate (1.48 HR/9) and some poor fortune on balls in play (.348). Thorpe’s K/BB numbers remain excellent, as he’s averaged 11.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. He’s also pitched considerably better since an awful start to the year. After surrendering 15 runs in his first two outings, he’s notched a 4.30 ERA with A 79-to-14 K/BB ratio in 60 2/3 innings.

AL Central Notes: Hanley, Rosario, Turnbull

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Hanley Ramirez has a March 24 opt-out date in his minor league contract with the Indians, tweets Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. They’ve been trying to get the veteran slugger as many at-bats as possible in a short period of time in order to make their best judgment on whether he can help the club. If Ramirez were to make the roster, he’d serve as a pure designated hitter, thus pushing Carlos Santana into regular first-base duty and moving Jake Bauers into the outfield with more regularity. Entering play Wednesday, Ramirez was 7-for-28 with a pair of doubles, a walk and five strikeouts through 29 official plate appearances thus far in Cactus League play (not including any work he’s received in minor league and intrasquad games).

Some additional chatter from the AL Central…

  • Outfielder Eddie Rosario tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic that he’s open to signing a long-term deal with the Twins (subscription link). The interest is mutual, Hayes adds, though to this point there’s been no meaningful progress in talks. Rosario has solidified himself as a quality regular over the past two seasons, hitting a combined .289/.326/.493 with 51 homers, 64 doubles, four triples and 17 steals. He’ll earn $4.19MM in 2019 after reaching arbitration for the first time and won’t be a free agent until after the 2021 season. Rosario will play the upcoming season at age 27 and would’ve been eligible for free agency entering his age-30 season. Agreeing on how many free-agent years to buy out and placing an annual value on those seasons will be the main talking point in negotiations, as both the Twins and Rosario’s representatives have a pretty clear idea of what he can plausibly earn in his final two arbitration years.
  • The loss of Michael Fulmer to Tommy John surgery has opened up a potential path to the Majors for Tigers right-hander Spencer Turnbull, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Detroit skipper Ron Gardenhire has previously advocated for Turnbull as a viable rotation candidate, Fenech notes, and the 26-year-old righty could find himself vying with southpaw Daniel Norris for a rotation spot early in the season. The 2014 second-rounder made his MLB debut in 2018, and though he was tagged for 11 runs in 16 1/3 innings, Turnbull only yielded 17 hits and four walks to go along with 15 strikeouts. This spring, Turnbull has held opponents to three runs on 13 hits and a pair of walks with 15 strikeouts in 15 innings. The Tigers also have Matthew Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Tyson Ross and Matt Moore lined up for rotation jobs, and it’s possible that Norris (or perhaps Turnbull) opens the year in a multi-inning relief role.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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