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MLB Mailbag: Skenes, Bregman, Nationals, Alcantara

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This week's mailbag gets into how long Paul Skenes will stay a Pirate, Alex Bregman opt-out scenarios, the NL East favorite, extensions for young Nationals players, potential Sandy Alcantara trade returns, the automated ball-strike system, and much more.

John asks:

I figure the Bucs' cheap owner will trade Skenes before his first arbitration year because he will never pay that kind of salary. If I'm right, when is his final year in Pittsburgh?

After the 2026 season, Paul Skenes will have three years of Major League service time and will be eligible for arbitration.  Barring an extension, Skenes and the Pirates will go through the arbitration process early in 2027, and his salary will take a huge leap that season.

How much of a leap is hard to predict not knowing what numbers Skenes will put up in 2025 and '26.  Remarkably, the first-time arbitration record for a starting pitcher remains Dallas Keuchel's $7.25MM from 2015, though prior to that Tim Lincecum at least topped $10MM as the midpoint between his $13MM filing figure and the Giants' $8MM.  Clayton Kershaw had a midpoint of $8.25MM once as well.  But the first-time starting pitcher arbitration market is not one that moves easily.

Arbitration eligible players are tendered contracts because they offer surplus value to their teams, star players included.  Corbin Burnes, for example, won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.

A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.

Say Skenes is a 6-WAR type player.  Bob Nutting has owned the Pirates since January 2007; what has happened with this team and similar players since he took over?

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Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals made a few acquisitions, most notably with a trade for their new first baseman. They eschewed any investments longer than two years. They're probably still a season away from pulling out of the rebuild. If they take a step forward from last season's 71 wins, they should be positioned for a much more aggressive winter going into 2026.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $38.5MM ($4MM deferred)
Total spending: $47.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Nationals finished 71-91 last season, their second straight year landing 20 games under .500. Still, they feel closer to contention than they did 12 months ago. Top outfield prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews made it to the big leagues. The middle infield tandem of CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. each took steps forward, even if Abrams' season ended with an unceremonious disciplinary demotion. Center fielder Jacob Young had a nice season headlined by Gold Glove-caliber defense. A controllable rotation group of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz pitched reasonably well.

One can start to see the light at the end of the five-year rebuild. Yet the Nationals entered the offseason with a handful of huge holes. GM Mike Rizzo said in September that the front office was looking to add one or two middle-of-the-order bats. The Nats got very little from their corner infield or designated hitter positions, making those obvious target areas. They're still lacking a true top-of-the-rotation starter, nor did they have much in the way of middle relief depth.

They didn't fix all of it. There was never much hope of ownership allowing the front office to jump back in on Juan Soto. They seemingly didn't look at the top of the rotation market, uninterested in making a $200MM+ investment for Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. While they technically did add two middle-of-the-order hitters, they weren't on significant free agent splashes. The Nationals showed some interest in Christian Walker and made sense as an on-paper fit for Pete Alonso, but they ended up taking a volume approach to free agency.

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

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The Guardians kept their longtime ace but traded their everyday first baseman ahead of his final season of club control. Their offseason featured a blend of creative trades to trim payroll and acquire controllable talent, plus some short-term spending on veterans to replace some of the big leaguers they traded away. It was a vintage Cleveland offseason that should keep them in the mix in what'll be a tightly contested AL Central.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $37.5MM
Total spending: $54.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Guardians entered the 2024-25 offseason looking to bolster a roster that made an unexpected run to the American League Championship Series. Cleveland faced decisions on some players with dwindling club control and, as is always the case, some notable payroll limitations. In a departure from most offseasons, however, the Guards found themselves in an unfamiliar position: needing to acquire starting pitching.

Cleveland has emerged as one of the industry leaders in maximizing its rotation output. At times, it feels as though they have an almost magical ability to produce quality starting pitchers out of thin air. In fact, when the Guardians signed righty Ben Lively to a one-year, $800K deal in the 2023-24 offseason, it was the first time they'd signed any free agent starter to a major league contract since inking Gavin Floyd back in 2014. Midway through the 2024 season, they did so again, signing Matthew Boyd to a major league contract.

Both moves worked out splendidly. Boyd started eight games down the stretch and produced a sub-3.00 ERA. Lively finished second on the club with 151 innings and notched a 3.81 ERA and stuck with the club as an arbitration-eligible player. He'll be back in the 2025 rotation. Boyd, however, hit free agency and did so alongside former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber and trade deadline acquisition Alex Cobb.

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Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros lost one star in free agency while trading away another. They're moving their longtime second baseman to left field. It'll be a different team, one they hope will remain a top AL contender in the short term while avoiding a true rebuild in the second half of this decade.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $21.2MM
Total spending: $62.2MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Astros are seeking their ninth consecutive playoff berth. Houston's incredible run of seven straight trips to the ALCS came to an end, but they still cruised to an AL West title after a ghastly start to the '24 campaign. The contention window certainly hasn't closed, but the front office had its work cut out for them this winter.

Alex Bregman's free agency was the most immediate challenge. Houston has spent up to and occasionally beyond the luxury tax line under owner Jim Crane. They're willing to spend, but that has come with the general caveat that they're not keen on offering long-term contracts. Houston had already allowed George Springer and Carlos Correa to walk in free agency. How much urgency would they show with Bregman?

The Astros made some effort to retain their longtime third baseman. They reportedly offered a six-year, $156MM proposal early in the winter. Bregman remained in pursuit of a contract closer to $200MM. While Houston left the offer on the table, the front office began turning its attention elsewhere when there was no progress towards a deal within the offseason's first six weeks.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2:30pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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10 Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring

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One of the most interesting elements of spring training every year, at least for those of us who feast on roster construction minutiae, is the collection of players who are out of minor league options. MLBTR just released a full list of such players earlier today.

In many instances, a player being out of minor league options is inconsequential. Justin Steele, Isaac Paredes and Evan Phillips are among the players who fit that description but are in no risk of losing their MLB roster spot. They're all key players on big league rosters who'd never be in danger of being sent down to the minors anyhow.

However, there are typically a handful of players every spring who are on the roster bubble with their current club but who could be a better fit on a team with less competition in their current position. Most of these players have already had big league opportunities with their current club but whether due to injury or poor performance (or both) have yet to firmly seize hold of a roster spot. As players exhaust their minor league options, they'll tend to face increased competition from younger players progressing through the minor league ranks and/or external additions made via trade or free agency. An out-of-options player who doesn't fit his current roster can still go on to find a more solid role and some success elsewhere. Joey Bart was in just this spot last year and after being squeezed out in San Francisco has emerged as Pittsburgh's starting catcher. The Yankees didn't have a spot for Ben Rortvedt, but he's the Rays' clear No. 2 catcher now.

Let's run through 10 names to keep an eye on this spring. Not all of these players will lose their roster spots, and even some who do might not wind up making an impact elsewhere. But each of the names listed here has some reason to hold a bit more intrigue than many of their out-of-options brethren (players listed alphabetically)...

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

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MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Painter, Royals, Yankees, Mets

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Today's mailbag gets into the Nationals' offseason approach, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do this year, the Royals' outfield, how small market teams can compete, the Yankees' third base situation, the Mets' rotation, and more.

Steve asks:

The Nationals have now spent over $50 million in this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you like their strategy of building depth with upside players with lower $ risk per player to keep the books clean for the coming years?

OTOH, they could have gone all in and met Bregman's rumored price of $210 million over 7 years, and had enough money for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and adding Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for their bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.

Which route do you like better?

Just to review, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free agency at a 2025 AAV cost of $38.75MM.  They also traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who is earning $10.3MM this year.

Despite adding $49MM in total '25 AAV, the team's CBT payroll is only $138MM.  The question is whether 2025 is/was the time for this team to pounce.  Owner Mark Lerner doesn't think so, based on comments made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.  Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here's what Lerner said to Svrluga:

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”  He paused. “You could get nauseous thinking about it,” he said, laughing.

Despite the additions, FanGraphs projects the Nationals for only 73 wins this year.  And even though - as I'll show later in the mailbag - teams sometimes outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that still might not be enough for a wild card.

The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base.  Bregman alone doesn't make this team a likely contender, and he turns 31 in March.  I don't think he fit as the team's Jayson Werth move.  I doubt Nolan Arenado would've accepted a trade to D.C., and he doesn't sense for this team anyway.

The Nats still owe $40MM to Ruiz and have a few catching prospects in the pipeline, so I can see why they didn't do anything there.  Likewise, adding a bigger bat than Bell might mean 74 or 75 wins instead of 73.

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Who Else Could The A’s Look To Extend?

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Last week, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported that the A's had opened extension negotiations with outfielder Lawrence Butler. General manager David Forst declined comment on Butler specifically but implied that he's not the only player with whom they've had discussions.

"We’ve had conversations with a couple other players other than (already-extended DH Brent Rooker), and those talks are ongoing," Forst told Drellich. "It is an important thing for us to lock guys up (heading) into Las Vegas and make sure that we keep the core of what we think is a really good young team together, ongoing."

MLBTR covered Butler's extension candidacy at the time of Drellich's report. With Forst's comments in mind, it's worth taking a speculative look at who else the A's may try to sign over the next few weeks.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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