MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Castellanos, Happ, Pablo Lopez
This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.
Abner asks:
The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.
There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed. Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening. In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%. I'm more in the range of 5-10%.
Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."
My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch. Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him. We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others. I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.
I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.
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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles came into 2025 as contenders but their season fell apart quickly. They have the pieces to bounce back in 2026 but what remains to be seen is how aggressive they will be in making offseason upgrades.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Tyler O'Neill, OF: $33MM through 2027
- Samuel Basallo, C/1B: $67MM through 2033, including buyout of 2034 club option
Option Decisions
- OF Tyler O'Neill can opt out of remaining two years and $33MM on his deal
- Club has $5.5MM option on IF/OF Jorge Mateo
- Club has $3MM option on LHP Dietrich Enns
2026 guarantees (assuming the Enns option is picked up): $20.5MM
Total future commitments: $103MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
- Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
- Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
- Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
- Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
- José Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
- Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
- Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
- Félix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
- Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
- Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
- Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
- Albert Suárez (3.019): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Mountcastle, Akin, Carlson, Castillo, Cano, Jackson
Free Agents
As seen up top, the O's have almost no long-term commitments. They have a large arbitration class but none of the projections are particularly onerous. Even with those arb players, RosterResource projects the club for a paltry $69MM payroll next year, almost $100MM below what they spent in 2025. A few non-tenders should give them even more breathing room.
All that potential payroll capacity doesn't guarantee of aggressive moves, however. They also had lots of dry powder last winter and still kept things fairly modest. The only multi-year pact was a three-year deal for Tyler O'Neill with an opt-out after the first season. Otherwise, it was one-year deals for veteran players like Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano.
The starting pitching investments were particularly underwhelming. The O's clearly needed more in the rotation. Since it was the first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein, some fans believed a new level of spending was possible. In November, then-general manager Mike Elias set the expectations fairly high. "You’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open," he said. "That involves high-end free agent deals over many years. We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”
But the O's ended up with a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano. The rotation ended up being a source of frustration for the O's all year. A spring injury to Grayson Rodriguez quickly cut into the depth and led the O's to a mid-March signing of Kyle Gibson. In April, Zach Eflin hit the injured list and Morton struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen. Gibson came up to try to patch the holes but he was torched in four starts and released in May. Plenty of other guys struggled to put good numbers together as well.
The season quickly slipped away. They were 12-18 at the end of April and then went 9-18 in May. They were better the rest of the way but it was too late to get the season back on track. They went into the deadline as sellers and were aggressive in trading away veterans for prospects.
Going into 2026, the rotation again needs some work, though there have been some positive developments. Trevor Rogers took a while to get on track in 2025, starting the season on the IL with a knee injury, but had an amazing finish. He posted a 1.81 earned run average over 18 starts. It's not realistic to expect him to stay that good over a longer sample but the numbers under the hood are promising. Kyle Bradish got back on the mound after his 2024 Tommy John surgery. He only made six starts in the majors but also made six more as part of his rehab.
Rogers and Bradish make for a strong one-two punch atop the rotation. Rodriguez would be another front-of-rotation option but he missed the entire season due to elbow and shoulder issues. He's expected to be ready for spring training but the O's will probably have to be mindful of his workload for a while. Guys like Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Tyler Wells can fill in the back but adding another front-end guy makes sense, something Elias has admitted. Will the poor 2025 season prompt a bolder strike this offseason?
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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
The Rangers failed to score enough runs for the second straight year. After making a few unsuccessful changes around the core last winter, they should be up for a more radical overhaul of the lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Corey Seager, SS: $186MM through 2031
- Jacob deGrom, RHP: $75MM through 2027 (deal includes club/vesting option for '28)
- Marcus Semien, 2B: $72MM through 2028
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $57MM through 2027 (including $12MM in unpaid signing bonus)
- Joc Pederson, DH: $18.5MM player option
- Kyle Higashioka, C: $7.75MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 mutual option)
Option Decisions
- DH Joc Pederson haș $18.5MM player option (deal includes matching mutual option for '27)
2026 guarantees (assuming Pederson opts in): $146.25MM
Total future commitments: $416.25MM through 2031
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
- Adolis García (5.095): $12.1MM
- Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
- Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
- Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
- Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
- Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
- Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
- Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM
Non-tender candidates: Heim, García, Sborz, Haggerty, Burger, Duran
Free Agents
- Merrill Kelly, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Mahle, Hoby Milner, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Martin, Danny Coulombe, Rowdy Tellez, Jon Gray, Dylan Moore, Donovan Solano
The Rangers followed up their championship season with a 78-84 showing in which they finished 18th in scoring. They signed Joc Pederson and swapped out Nathaniel Lowe for Jake Burger, hoping to add some power and do more damage against fastballs. Neither Pederson nor Burger stepped up, and the Rangers dropped to 22nd in scoring this year. An improved pitching staff pushed them to .500, but they finished with a whimper despite buying at the trade deadline.
Bigger changes are in order. That already began in the manager's office. The Rangers parted ways with Bruce Bochy after three seasons. It took less than a week to hammer out a four-year contract with Skip Schumaker, a former NL Manager of the Year who returns to the dugout after a season working as a special assistant in the Texas front office. Schumaker should be working with a much different lineup than the one that closed Bochy's tenure.
The broad focus is to improve the offensive approach. Only the Rockies, Guardians, Angels and White Sox had a lower on-base percentage. Texas was in the bottom third of MLB in walk rate. At the end-of-season press conference, general manager Ross Fenstermaker said the team could prioritize "stable skills, on-base percentage, the ability to make contact, execute situationally" in their external additions (link via Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News).
Before that can happen, they'll need to move on from a few players. Rowdy Tellez is their only impending free agent hitter of any note, so the significant work will happen via trades and/or non-tenders. They're unlikely to find a taker for Pederson, who'll exercise a $16.5MM player option after hitting .181/.285/.328 during his first season in Texas. It's hard to imagine they'd move Corey Seager, who remains the team's best hitter and whose contract (another six years at $31MM annually) would only work for a couple large-market teams. Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith and Evan Carter should be back as affordable building blocks.
The Rangers might try to get out from under a portion of the Marcus Semien contract. He's owed $72MM over the final three seasons of his seven-year free agent deal. Semien was phenomenal during the World Series season but has tailed off over the past two years. He's coming off a career-worst .230/.305/.364 slash line with 15 homers and ended the year on the injured list with a Lisfranc issue in his left foot.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! We'll get going at 2pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Sorry to be a couple minutes late. Let's begin!
Tx Ranger stuff
- With what’s out there and what he’s gonna cost would you keep Adolis García and hope he hits? And what about Jonah Heim.
Steve Adams
- I think both are as good as done in Arlington. Garcia is going to make around $12MM after consecutive disappointing seasons at the plate. Heim took a huge step back and is going to earn around $6MM after a pair of ugly years. Chris Young alluded to payroll uncertainty when talking about Bochy's departure.
- At catcher, there isn't a ton out there in free agency beyond JT Realmuto, but the Rangers could try for Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers via trade or go more direct and sign Victor Caratini. I just don't think spending $6MM or so to hope Heim returns to his 2023 levels is where they'll go.
- In the outfield, they've got Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. There'll be plenty of trade options even if the limited slate of corner OF bats in free agency doesn't appeal to them ... Lars Nootbaar, Taylor Ward, Brendan Donovan, Brenton Doyle, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, JJ Bleday, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach ... any of those names could be out there in trade talks.
Buster Posey
- Outside of 2B and RF, where can I look to improve this club other than trying to stockpile quality arms?
Steve Adams
- Second base and right field are the primary avenues to bolstering the lineup in San Francisco, but they could also look at first base/DH and see if Bryce Eldridge can headline a package for a notable starter (e.g Joe Ryan, Andrew Abbott, etc.)Could also look into some of those same OF options I listed for the Rangers -- plus Tucker, Bellinger, Grisham, etc. -- and plug Heliot Ramos into more of a DH role.
Luis Arraez
- Am I playable at 3B anymore? Boston would be nice... Hell it's not like Casas will be healthy, I can play 1B by Memorial Day after Triston ruptures a fingernail or something
Steve Adams
- Cannot fathom someone signing Arraez to play third base. He's just a poor defender wherever he's at ... first base, maybe you could get something close to average, but even that's a stretch. I think Arraez is going to sign a contract that makes a lot of fans say "Uh, that's it?" But he's basically just a (very good) singles hitter with a middling OBP ... He's the type of guy I can see ending up with a boring one-year deal or maybe a cheap two/opt-out in February if he goes out looking for a notable long-term contract.
For Love of the Game
- Given that Scott Boras advises his clients to test the free agent waters, no team is really going to drain their top prospect ranks by offering so much for Skubal that the Tigers would write off contending in 2026 (and likely 2027) for a chance to be even better in later years, right? If I'm wrong, what would that offer look like?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good evening everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it started
Twins
- They can say its not a rebuild all they want but what we're seeing seems clear. Why not just rip the band aid off, trade Pablo and Joe Ryan for a ton, and start over?
Bradke Hrbek
- Imagine a world where the Twins aren't inclined to continue their trade deadline fire sale this offseason... what kind of trade offer would convince them to give up Joe Ryan anyway?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I expect both Ryan and Pablo to go by the deadline at the latest. Two years on each and even if they're hoping for an accelerated rebuild, the bullpen and bottom part of the lineup are in such bad shape that it's not fixable in one offseason
- As far as Ryan goes, I assume it looks pretty similar to the Crochet deal. I was a little lower on that one for the White Sox because I'm not a huge Braden Montgomery fan. But I assume Chicago viewed that as two of the 50-60 best prospects in MLB with Teel/Montgomery, a solid third piece in Meidroth, and then a lottery ticket reliever in Gonzalez
- Ryan's not as good as Crochet is now but I think it's debatable whether he's as valuable as Crochet was then. Higher ceiling with the lefty working in the upper 90s with huge strikeout rates, but Crochet had yet to show he could hold that level over a full season with an ace workload
Astros fan
- If Alonso leaves, do you think the Mets would have any interest in Christian Walker? How much of his salary do you think they would be willing to pay?
Anthony Franco
- I'd rather just see what Vientos can do there, but I'm probably lower on Walker than the rest of the MLBTR staff. I'd need the Astros to pay him into the $8-10M range annually to consider it, and only after I've exhausted other options on the FA market
- The defensive grades collapsed. He was essentially unplayable in the first half, very good in July and August, then pretty bad again in September. Chase up a little bit, contact way down. The trend lines are rough
Guarded Indian
- Not so much a question as a statement, but I really hope you guys are wrong about Nick C. coming to Cleveland. I'd rather run it with Kwan, Delauter, Valera in the OF, Manzardo at DH with Kayfus at first. Unfortunately, this does seem exactly like the kind of move my Guards would do.
Anthony Franco
- I agree, don't love the fit there and would rather have Kayfus/Manzardo split 1B/DH. Seems like Nick feels differently (though he's also just highlighting a few possibilities for a low-stakes poll) and it's true that they need better out of right field, but I assume DeLauter's going to end up there. I wouldn't want Castellanos playing the outfield every day
Omar Minaya
- Seems to be increasing smoke around a potential Skubal trade. How would you rank the potential suitors?
Alex
- For so many reasons, I don't think it particularly likely from either side, but out of curiosity, if the Tigers were to make Skubal available, what sort of cost would teams be looking at? For my frame of reference, let's say it's the Cubs inquiring. It seems like something that would be so astronomical that no team would consider it, but to reference the Yankees/Soto trade a few years ago (which feels like a similar situation) it's not like that set the Yankees back too much. Is Skubal in another tier than Soto, or would we be looking at something similar?
Anthony Franco
- I disagree that there's increased smoke about Skubal getting traded. They lowballed him on an old extension offer. It doesn't look great, but it's not like it impacted his 2025 performance
- Doubt they're getting an extension done but I never expected them to. I'd be floored if they didn't hold him into next season and be prepared to QO him after what they hope is a long playoff run
- If they did trade him, I think it's a better return than what San Diego got for Soto. He's making half the arbitration salary that Soto was and top-end pitchers take on an increased importance in the playoffs. A team is only trading for Skubal if they think they're inner circle contenders
- But the Tigers are coming off consecutive playoff berths. They have an elite farm system already. They just squandered the division in part because they were too conservative at the deadline, and they're not under any short-term financial constraints with Skubal/Baez as their only notable contracts. If they trade Skubal now, at what point are they actually trying to win?
Tony Torcato
- Should the Giants pull the plug on Marco Luciano, and possibly even Luis Matos? Heliot Ramos might also be on the bubble for his subpar defense in LF and regression at the plate, would you agree/disagree? Giants need to remake their outfield, and concentrate on pitching and defense to get back to a championship level, imo.
Anthony Franco
- Pretty close to it. I probably wouldn't keep Luciano on the 40 all offseason, it's just not going to work. I still have a semblance of hope for Matos as a decent role player but he's out of options so he might get squeezed out during Spring Training
- They're not cutting Ramos though. Even if they wanted to focus on outfield defense, they could trade him
Dan S.
- Trent Grisham and Harrison Bader are coming off very good platform years, but both looked more like second-division regulars or part-time/platoon guys in recent seasons. Grisham's offensive breakout came with an alarming defensive drop and Bader's wOBA outperformed is xwOBA by a massive .043 points. What kind of contracts are they looking at this winter?
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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks' pitching staff was battered by injuries, leading to a deadline sell-off of most of their impending free agents. Arizona played surprisingly well in the second half to remain in the Wild Card picture. They came up a little short of a postseason berth, and they're now faced with the task of rebuilding the pitching while navigating an expected payroll cut.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Corbin Burnes, RHP: $170MM through 2030 ($10-11MM deferred annually; Burnes can opt out after '26)
- Ketel Marte, 2B: $102.5MM through 2031 (Marte can opt out after '30)
- Corbin Carroll, RF: $102MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $46MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 mutual/vesting option)
- Geraldo Perdomo, SS: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option; 2028-30 salaries likely to escalate with expected top 10 MVP finish)
- Brandon Pfaadt, RHP: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF: $18MM player option for 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
- Justin Martinez, RHP: $14.5MM through 2029 (deal includes club options for 2030-32)
Option Decisions
- LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has $18MM player option ($13MM salary plus $5MM buyout on '27 club option valued at $14MM)
Additional financial commitment: Owe $100K buyout to released RHP Kendall Graveman
2026 guarantees: $101.1MM
Total future commitments: $543.1MM through 2031
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
- A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
- Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
- John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
- Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
- Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
- Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
- Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Vargas, Puk, Thompson, Ginkel, Curtiss, Kyle Nelson, McCarthy
Free Agents
A few hints about the Diamondbacks' winter have already emerged courtesy of owner Ken Kendrick. The team's solid performance after the trade deadline ensured that skipper Torey Lovullo and his coaching staff would be back with as little as one change. The expectation will still be to contend, but the front office will have less payroll room with which to work. Kendrick said that the club plans to reduce spending after pushing the payroll to a franchise-record $187MM Opening Day mark this year (via Cot's Baseball Contracts).
Arizona will have around $100MM in guaranteed commitments once Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is recovering from ACL surgery, inevitably passes on the chance to opt out of the remaining $18MM on his contract. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the arbitration class to come in around $26MM if everyone were tendered a contract. Only Gabriel Moreno, Ryne Nelson, Alek Thomas and probably Pavin Smith feel like locks for that. Ildemaro Vargas, John Curtiss, Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson should all be fairly easy cuts. That leaves a handful of borderline tender decisions.
Whether to bring back A.J. Puk is entirely a health question. He's one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, but he underwent internal brace surgery in June. That's the second UCL procedure of his career. The internal brace usually comes with a lesser recovery timeline than the full Tommy John reconstruction. If the D-Backs expect Puk to return around the All-Star Break, they should pay the $3-4MM which he'd make in arbitration.
If they're projecting more of a 14-15 month timeline that'd raise doubts about his availability for the entire season, a non-tender has to be a consideration. Puk will be a free agent after the '26 campaign, so there's no point tendering him a contract just to rehab. The Snakes could also reach out to Puk's camp before the non-tender deadline to see if they're open to a two-year deal that'd ensure the pitcher gets paid next year while the team gets the upside of a full season in 2027.
Ryan Thompson is coming off a middling season and missed most of the second half with a shoulder strain. He pitched well in September and the Snakes need bullpen help, but a near-$4MM projection feels a bit rich. Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy is coming off a sub-replacement season in which he hit .204/.247/.345 across 222 big league plate appearances. He'll be out of minor league options. McCarthy has had flashes of MLB success and is projected for a sub-$2MM salary, but the Snakes could try to shop him in a sell-low trade. If they don't find any interest, they'll need to decide whether to tender him a contract as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
While the Diamondbacks have a fairly large arbitration class, their deadline sale left them with only three impending free agents. Journeyman reliever Jalen Beeks and backup catcher James McCann each played their roles well enough. The Diamondbacks could get either of them back on a cheap one-year deal. Their biggest potential loss is Zac Gallen, a one-time candidate for a nine figure deal who hits the market after an uneven showing.
Gallen pitched so poorly in the first half that Arizona didn't find a trade offer to their liking. They were comfortable making him a $22.025MM qualifying offer if other clubs didn't meet their asking price. Gallen is still expected to decline the QO coming off a 4.83 ERA over 33 starts. He's represented by the Boras Corporation, which has had success finding two-year deals with an opt-out rather than straight one-year pillow contracts. Gallen, who is going into his age-30 season, is a candidate for that kind of deal.
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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a new owner and (hopefully) their old ballpark, as the plan is for a renovated and restored Tropicana Field to be ready for the start of the 2026 season. Beyond those significant details, it may be an otherwise relatively normal Rays offseason, as the team looks to juggle payroll and churn the roster in the hopes of returning to contention.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yandy Diaz, 1B: $12MM through 2026 (Rays hold $10MM club option for 2027; becomes guaranteed for $13MM if Diaz has 500 plate appearances in 2026)
- Drew Rasmussen, SP: $6MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout of $8MM club option for 2027)
Option Decisions
- Pete Fairbanks, RP: $11MM club option ($1MM buyout)
- Brandon Lowe, 2B: $11.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
- Taylor Walls, SS: $2.45MM club option ($50K buyout; Rays have arbitration control over Walls through 2027 whether they exercise the option or not)
2026 financial commitments (if Fairbanks/Lowe options are exercised): $40MM
Total future commitments (if Fairbanks/Lowe options are exercised): $40.5MM
Other Financial Obligations
- Wander Franco, SS: Owed $164MM through 2032, but isn't being paid while on MLB's restricted list.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM
- Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM
- Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM
- Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM
- Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM
- Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM
- Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM
- Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K
- Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM
- Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM
- Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM
- Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K
- Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM
- Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Walls, Fortes, Morel, Fairchild, Faedo, Kelly
Free Agents
Matt Silverman and Brian Auld have stepped down from their longtime roles as Rays co-presidents, and some other internal changes are inevitable now that Patrick Zalupski's ownership group has taken the reins. However, the changes won't extend to president of baseball ops Erik Neander, with Zalupski making a point of stating during his introductory press conference that his group has a "self-imposed rule" that "none of us, and none of the partners, are allowed to talk to or have any influence on baseball operations."
The chief short-term goal for Zalupski's group is to finally secure a new ballpark in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, with the lofty aim of having this new stadium in place for the start of the 2029 season. It seems like a lot to achieve in less than three and a half years' time, but the bottom line is familiar for Rays fans --- the player payroll doesn't seem likely to change until that new stadium is in place, and new revenues start flowing.
Assuming that the Trop's renovations are completed on schedule, returning to their former ballpark at least represents some relief for the Rays after a season spent at Steinbrenner Field. The adjustment to suddenly playing home games in a minor league park, and playing outdoors in the tough Florida weather, seemed to take its toll on the Rays as the 2025 campaign rolled along. Tampa Bay was 47-36 on June 28 and in the thick of the AL East race, but stumbled to a 30-49 record the rest of the way.
Since the Rays were also 80-82 in 2024, this season's subpar record can't be entirely written off as a creation of Steinbrenner Field. The magic formula hasn't entirely worked for Neander and company in the last two years, even if the Rays have remained quasi-competitive. This could mean that Tampa Bay might not be far away from a full-fledged return to contention, since a lot still went right for the team in 2025.
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MLB Mailbag: Alonso, Skubal, Grisham
This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso's reported contract demand, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, possible Trent Grisham suitors, and much more.
Chris asks:
Alonso saying he is seeking a 7 year deal is essentially him saying that he's out of Queens. So if you're Stearns, is the play to go all out for Murakami? Short-term on a Josh Naylor? Or give the keys to Clifford, strengthen up elsewhere like CF, 3B, DH to supplement the offense now you don't have Pete? Or just really go all in on your "Run Prevention" Plan, go get a Skubal or Skenes, sign Valdez or Cease and fortify the defense. There's a lot of questions for the Mets who honestly feel like they are only a few pieces for being a legit World Series Contender again.
Abner asks:
Pete Alonso is asking for a 7 year deal (he will be 31 by the beginning of next season) and David Stearns does not like that type of commitment for players in the wrong side of the 30's. It is known that the Mets are showing interest in NPB player Munetaka Murakami who is a slugger in Japan, but is not yet proven against MLB pitching. Murakami also comes with some concerns (poor plate discipline/not excel with defense), but based on recent Japanese stars that have come to MLB (Roki Sasaki/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Seiya Suzuki) we could expect him to command a longer and more expensive deal than the one Alonso is looking for. Additionally, there will be no other first basemen of that same caliber available in this offseason free agency class. So, how feasible for the Mets would be to get a deal done with Pete Alonso and how that deal would look like? Thanks in advance.
On Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, "Alonso, who turns 31 in December, is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years — a length consistent with deals the player’s agent, Scott Boras, completed in recent seasons for Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman at the same age (Chapman received a six-year extension from the Giants after his first season with the club on a different contract)."
Start with the fact that both of those comps are a major stretch for Alonso.
Semien did indeed sign a seven-year deal heading into his age-31 season. This came off a monster 6-WAR campaign, Semien's second in three years. Alonso has not even reached 4 WAR since he was a rookie. The gap in defensive value on the two is enormous. Semien was a Gold Glove second baseman who was also capable of playing shortstop.
Puma makes a case that Alonso's first base defense isn't as bad as the metrics suggest, because he's good at making scoops. That may be true, but he's still a pretty clear net negative given what two completely different metrics, Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, say.
More crucially, Semien was an up-the-middle player, not a first baseman who's expected to move to DH soon. Semien's defensive abilities have sustained 2+ WAR value even as his offense has slipped below league average. And Semien's seventh year, brought about by a level of free agent competition Alonso is unlikely to have, looks regrettable.
Chapman's deal was not signed on the open market. It's a six-year extension covering age 32-37. I suppose a case can be made that if a 32-year-old can get six years, a 31-year-old should get seven. Like Semien, defense is a huge part of Chapman's game, making him a poor comp for Alonso.
The correct comps are other first basemen, plus designated hitters. Modern GMs have clearly demonstrated they will not give first basemen and DHs long-term deals. The fact that no one offered Alonso a good one last year was not entirely due to the qualifying offer. It has been nearly four years since a free agent first baseman of any age signed for even five years. That was Freddie Freeman getting six in March 2022. Freeman clearly a better hitter than Alonso is.
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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
The Reinsdorf era may be drawing to a close. With clean books and many unsettled positions, do the White Sox have any bold offseason moves up their sleeve?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: $31MM through 2027
Option Decisions
- Luis Robert Jr., CF: $20MM club option ($2MM buyout); deal includes $20MM club option for 2027
- Martin Perez, SP: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Total 2026 commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $38MM
Total long-term commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $52.5MM through 2027
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
- Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM
- Derek Hill (3.040): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Wilson, Hill
Free Agents
- Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor (retired)
In last year's Offseason Outlook, we briefly touched on the bigger-picture questions of who will own the White Sox long-term and where they will play in 2030. One of those questions has likely been answered. In June of this year, the team announced that "Jerry Reinsdorf and Justin Ishbia have reached a long-term investment agreement that establishes a framework for Ishbia to obtain a future controlling interest in the White Sox," adding that "Ishbia will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."
That's the headline, but the details are crucial:
"The agreement provides that, from 2029–33, Reinsdorf will have the option to sell the controlling interest to Ishbia. After the 2034 season, Ishbia will have the option to acquire the controlling interest. In the event of any such future transaction, all limited partners of the Sox would have the opportunity to sell to Ishbia at that time. In addition to Justin Ishbia, his brother Mat Ishbia, and father Jeff Ishbia will also be significant investors. There is no assurance that any such future transaction will occur, and in no event will such a transaction take place before 2029."
If you've got 20 minutes to spare, check out this discussion between Alex Maragos of NBC 5 Chicago and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, who has done a lot of reporting on this planned transfer of ownership. You'll hear the word "transformative" thrown around, but there's no reason to expect a significant player payroll increase in the near future. White Sox fans have a new sense of hope about the future of the franchise, but for the 2025-26 offseason, we don't expect much of an Ishbia effect.
The 2025 White Sox were just normal bad, rather than historically bad. It was the team's third consecutive 100-loss season, with a 60-102 record. The White Sox ranked 14th in the AL with 3.99 runs scored per game. The starting rotation ranked 11th with a 4.39 ERA, while the bullpen checked in at 10th with a 4.16 mark. The defense seemed to be bottom-five in the league.
Despite that, positives are emerging. The White Sox have established a Kyle Teel-Edgar Quero job-share at catcher. Teel came up in June and posted 1.9 fWAR in 78 games, including a 125 wRC+ at the plate that ranked sixth among all catchers. Shortstop Colson Montgomery came up in July and slugged at a level well beyond anything he'd done at Triple-A: a 129 wRC+ with 21 home runs in just 284 plate appearances.
On the pitching side, GM Chris Getz snagged Shane Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft last winter, and he remarkably became the team's All-Star representative. The righty, 26 in April, faltered in the middle of the summer but posted a 3.09 ERA and 27.1 K% over his final ten starts.
First base was a bit of a black eye. The White Sox justifiably gave up on former third overall pick Andrew Vaughn, optioning him to Triple-A in May and sending him to the Brewers for pitcher Aaron Civale in mid-June. The Brewers brought Vaughn up a few weeks later and he put up a surprising and robust 142 wRC+ in 254 plate appearances, plus a couple of key home runs in the Division Series against the Cubs.
The White Sox never really settled on a first baseman after moving on from Vaughn, with guys like Tim Elko, Ryan Noda, and trade deadline pickup Curtis Mead getting looks. The majority of starts went to Miguel Vargas, who also played a bunch of third base. Vargas flashed signs of life in May and August, but overall his 101 wRC+ doesn't really play for a starter at an infield corner. So what can be done?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 3pm CT
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get this going in a couple hours, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
- Hello there!
- Let's get underway
Mariners
- Mariners have announced starters for games 3 and 4 already, and woo is not among them. Do you think he appears in the ALCS at all?
Steve Adams
- Adam Jude with the Seattle Times reported a bit ago that they're targeting a Game 5 start for Woo, so as long as the M's don't sweep, yeah I expect to see him.
Gavin Cordes
- Should the Padres trade Pivetta for prospects and use that money to sign King longterm
Steve Adams
- This might've felt more plausible if King had repeated his 2024 season, but his earning power was crushed pretty heavily by all the health struggles this year. I think they can probably find a way to try to keep him on a creative deal like the ones president AJ Preller has dreamt up with Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez and Pivetta himself. The Padres are pretty good at manipulating player options and back/front-loading contracts to mitigate the CBT hit but do so with a notable guarantee and a crack at returning to free agency early for the player in question.And really, because of that, I doubt Pivetta has the value many would see upon first glance at his numbers. He can opt back into free agency next season.Pivetta was only paid $4MM this year. He's still guaranteed $51MM over three years, with $19MM of that paid out in 2026.
- Any team trading for him knows that if he pitches like he did in '25, he's opting out, effectively rendering him a one-year rental. If he struggles or suffers a major injury, they're on the hook for $51MM guaranteed.
- As with all player option/opt-out contracts, there's just far more downside than there is upside.
Eutaw Street
- I know Alonso wants a 7 year deal, but those long term deals are just not popular with teams anymore. And I think it’s even less likely for a power hitting first baseman. Could something like a 4 year/$180 million deal with a 5 year player option do it for Alonso?
Steve Adams
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- I don't think Alonso has any delusions of signing a 7-year deal this winter, and I don't think any team in its right mind would do 4/180. We're going to end up predicting some $60-70MM less than that on our top 50
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