Offseason Outlook: Athletics
An awful May ensured the A's were headed for another losing season. They made arguably the biggest sell-side trade at the deadline, sending Mason Miller to San Diego for a prospect package headlined by potential franchise shortstop Leo De Vries. The A's have quietly been one of the best teams in the American League for the final two months of the season. They're in for a second straight offseason focused primarily on pitching. It's not an easy task while they're in a Triple-A home ballpark that plays as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Lawrence Butler, CF: $62.25MM through 2031 (including $2MM in yet to be paid signing bonuses and buyout of '32 club option)
- Brent Rooker, DH: $48MM through 2029 (deal includes '30 club/vesting option)
- Luis Severino, RHP: $47MM through 2027 (including $5MM signing bonus to be paid in January; can opt out after '26)
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $11.25MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
2026 financial commitments: $45.75MM
Total future commitments: $168.5MM
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Wynns (5.107): $1.8MM
- Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
- JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
- Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
- Luis Medina (2.146): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Waldichuk
Free Agents
For the second straight year, the A's go into the offseason with positive momentum despite finishing with a losing record. They've been a better second half team in both 2024 and '25. That alone probably doesn't hold a ton of predictive value, but it's fair to have more optimism next spring than it was last offseason.
It appears ownership is satisfied with the direction of the rebuild. The A's extended manager Mark Kotsay last offseason on a deal that runs at least through 2028. General manager David Forst is reportedly on an expiring deal. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that he's in talks with owner John Fisher about his future. Rosenthal suggests he could agree to at least a two-year extension that runs up to the team's expected opening of its Las Vegas ballpark.
They're on track to go into Vegas with a very good offense. Nick Kurtz has shredded major league pitching. Jacob Wilson is coming off the first of what should be multiple All-Star appearances at shortstop. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have taken steps forward offensively. Soderstrom also showed he's capable of playing better defense than expected in left field after being forced off first base by Kurtz's arrival. Even as Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler took steps back after fantastic 2024 seasons, this lineup runs six deep. The 18-year-old De Vries is a dynamic talent at the top of the farm system who has a good shot to pair with Wilson as an elite middle infield tandem down the line.
The A's don't have the same kind of young corps anchoring the pitching staff. Neither the Luis Severino signing nor the Jeffrey Springs trade stabilized the rotation as hoped (though Severino has been quite good down the stretch). Both pitchers have managed back-of-the-rotation results overall without missing a ton of bats. Neither has fared well at the A's temporary home park in Sacramento.
Severino blasted the arrangement when speaking with Brendan Kuty of The Athletic in June. Asked about his stark home/road splits, the righty said his road numbers were better "because we play in a big-league stadium on the road." He added that pitching in Sacramento is "not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun."
The criticism was bizarre considering the A's went beyond general expectations to sign Severino to a three-year, $67MM contract last offseason. That price presumably baked in a cost for pitching in a minor league facility on a team without a true home city. Unsurprisingly, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested that Severino's comments were not well-received by A's brass. The team would've welcomed a chance to trade him at the deadline. Between the contract and Severino's lack of swing-and-miss stuff both at home and away, they were unable to find a taker.
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MLB Mailbag: Naylor, Eflin, Tucker, King, Realmuto
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This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.
Stephen asks:
Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?
This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October. So let's try to put a number on Naylor.
Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well. He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.
Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed. As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation. Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman. Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR. He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans. The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.
If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle. Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome." In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade. So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- 'Tis Monday. 'Tis chat day. I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions in advance if you prefer!
- Let's get underway!
Kirk
- thoughts on Texas going after Freddy Peralta in the winter?
Steve Adams
- I don't see why they wouldn't. I imagine lots of teams will be interested in him, though. The Brewers hold an $8MM option that they'll obviously pick up. It's a matter of whether they move him to extract some significant prospect value in return or whether they just ride out his final year and recoup a high draft pick for him post-2026.Typically, they have gone the trade route, but they did hang onto Willy Adames for his full control window -- and Peralta is even cheaper and arguably more valuable than some of the guys they did trade when they were down to a year (or just over) of club control -- Hader, Burnes, Williams.
- Texas will have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter locked into rotation spots. Tyler Mahle, Patrick Corbin and Merrill Kelly are free agents. You can't feel all that great about the health outlook of either deGrom or Eovaldi, despite deGrom staying healthy this year.
- They have plenty of prospect depth and some interesting young big leaguers they could include (Kumar Rocker, Josh Jung come to mind as former top prospects who might be trending toward change-of-scenery territory).There's no reason to suggest they won't pursue him -- but nothing uniquely positions them as any sort of favorite, either.
The Mayor
- Is Scott Harris or A.J. Hinch's job on the line with the latest Tigers meltdown? Harris especially should be under fire from ownership for his trade deadline moves.
Scott Harris
- Look, I still have all my top prospects. I thought our pitching looked good and needed minor tweeks. Maybe I need an eye exam?
this little piggyback
- I root for the Mets and the Tigers. Please talk me off the ledge.
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The Changing Landscape Of The Offseason Shortstop Market
For much of the 2025 season, it's looked as though Bo Bichette will be the only notable shortstop in free agency -- and it's been plenty fair to debate whether he's a shortstop at all. The 27-year-old has bounced back -- and then some -- at the plate, largely quieting concerns about his anemic performance with the bat in an injury-ruined 2024 season that saw him slash just .225/.277/.322 with four homers in 81 games. But whatever good will Bichette has regained with a resurgent performance in the batter's box has at least partially been offset by a career-worst year with the glove -- and now yet another lower-half injury.
Elsewhere in free agency, what once looked like an otherwise-barren class has now begun to show some potential upside. Narratives surrounding several potential free agents have begun to shift -- enough that it bears taking a lengthier look at what the winter might bring.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Darragh McDonald
- Hello, everyone. Anthony is off today, so I'm doing the Friday chat this week. Sorry to the Francoists out there.
- We'll be getting started a bit earlier than usual since I'm covering the afternoon news. Apologies to the West Coasters if that's annoying.
- Anyway, feel free to drop questions and I'll be back at 11 Central to answer them.
- Okay, happy Friday, everyone.
- If you're at work, I hope you're doing a good job pretending like you're doing something.
- Let's talk baseball.
Joe Baseball
- Will Zach Eflin will get a multi year contract if he doesn’t get a QO from Baltimore, or have to take a one year prove it deal? He should be fully recovered by January and he had back surgery, and his arm isn’t a problem. Thoughts?
Darragh McDonald
- I would guess one-year prove-it deal. He's been fairly injury-prone in his career and is coming off a pretty rough year.
Michael
- Do you think a trade between the Pirates and Mets for Mitch Keller is possible? Mets seem to have a glut of young infielders they could spare between Acuna, Baty, Mauricio, Acuna, etc that would be an immediate upgrade over what the Pirates have been trotting out there
Darragh McDonald
- I suppose there's a chance. Stearns kept adding more starters last offseason even when it seemed like they had plenty.
- Going into 2026, they've got McLean, Tong, Sproat, Holmes, Peterson, Senga, Megill, Manaea, Scott, and others.
- Doesn't seem like they need much more but I could have said the same thing last year when they kept adding Montas, Canning, etc.
- I wouldn't be surprised if Keller is available but I probably wouldn't pick the Mets as the most likely landing spot.
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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas
This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.
Sam asks:
Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)
Hugh asks:
Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?
It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument. That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams. Go for it!" They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.
I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.
Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year. Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.
Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today. His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain. Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.
If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May. This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper. I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see. As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.
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Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form
The Marlins were expected to trade Sandy Alcantara at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner had returned from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. The hope was that he'd immediately recapture his ace form, demonstrate that over his first 18-20 starts, and be the prize of the summer rotation market.
Alcantara's return didn't go anywhere near that smoothly. His velocity was back, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats. He allowed over eight earned runs per nine innings in April and May. He showed flashes in June and July but remained up-and-down. Miami's deadline calculus became whether to sell low on their longtime ace -- a move that would've been more about cutting his $17MM salaries through 2026 than netting a huge prospect return. Given the organizational history, no one would've been surprised if they'd gone that route.
They instead decided to hold Alcantara and were only modest sellers overall. Miami dealt third catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay and flipped platoon outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Houston for a three-player package. In addition to Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher all stayed.
Miami was willing to cover what remained of Alcantara's 2025 salary to take a couple more months to get him on track. That has paid off. The 30-year-old righty has looked more like his old self. He's showing better control than he did in April and May. The improved efficiency has allowed him to work deeper into games. His stuff has gotten sharper as the season has progressed. That'll all be very encouraging as the Marlins field new trade offers in the offseason.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry for the shorter-than-usual notice and slightly moved-up chat time. My kids are home from daycare today so kind of playing this by ear and hoping to be able to get through a full hour while they're napping, ha. Fingers crossed!
- As always, feel free to submit questions in advance, but we'll get going around 1:30pm CT.
- Hello! Let's get underway
Dave
- Duran to LAD for Sheehan, B Miller and Copen to Red Sox Who says no? Thanks
Steve Adams
- Assuming that's Jarren -- I think Sheehan is a fine starting point, but Miller's value is about as low as it's ever been, and Copen is a middle-of-the-road prospect with subpar command. I don't think that package moves the needle for Boston when you're talking about three years of Jarren Duran.
Keeping Tabs on Our Rivals
- What is the benefit of a club option for a player?
Steve Adams
- There really isn't one, just like there's no value to a team when it's conceding to a player option or opt-out clause. Sometimes you agree to a term or provision that you don't necessarily love just to push the other side up/down to a certain point and to get the deal across the finish line.
Ben Cherrington
- Do I hold onto Cruz? If I do where do I play him. If I trade him can I get much for him? So much potential, so little actual production
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Fantasy Baseball: Streaming for Championships (Bullpen)
Hello, friends.
Hopefully, September continues to treat you well as we keep cruising in our fantasy stretch run. We're looking to help you out with all of your streaming needs for a championship run, as categorical specificity may start driving your decisions even more. Translation? You gotta do what you gotta do to squeak out any extra points you can in different categories.
With that in mind, we're going to continue looking at late-season options if you're hunting specific gains. Last week, we went over some hitting options, so naturally, it's time for some arm loving, starting with everyone's favorite fantasy Rubik's Cube to crack -- the bullpen!
First, a couple of notes. We're going to look at players who are currently rostered <40% on Yahoo and will look heavily at numbers from the last 30 days, noting numbers, as well as usage. We'll look more specifically at saves, strikeouts, and holds, but for there is plenty of information included for those mostly looking to amp up their ratios.
Okay, no more preamble. Let's...bullpen!
Saves
We won't bother burying the lede -- there are only a few weeks left, and scrounging a handful of Saves might be the difference in whether you end 2025 as a champion or just a second-place jobber without a belt. The landscape for finding Saves on the wire is as bleak as you might expect around this time of year, but when you need 'em, you need 'em. So pinch your noses, everyone, it's time to seduce the foulest fantasy mistress of them all...
*insert dramatic "dun-dun du-uuuun"*
September Saves!
Shawn Armstrong, TEX (Yahoo: 21%)
Phil Maton might have gotten Texas's last opportunity, but it's Armstrong who has five saves in the last 30 days (two in the last five games). He seems to still be the lead dog among their strong trio of options, along with Robert Garcia and Maton, even if the latter got a chance after Armstrong had picked up the previous two.
However, I would still exercise caution, as danger lurks below his peripheries. As in, a regressional reckoning might still be on his September horizon.
Armstrong's numbers over the last month have been pristine, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.71 WHIP, but a .152 BABIP and 93% LOB% don't tend to be sustainable over long stretches. Add that to a strikeout rate that has ticked down to a 20% K%, after running a 26% K% previously, and you're left feeling less comfortable.
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The Reds Could Have Starting Pitching To Trade This Offseason
Not long ago, the Reds found themselves in possession of what looked to be a borderline surplus of infielders. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all had varying levels big league experience even before Cincinnati signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year contract. A wide range of opinions on how to best divide the playing time persisted, but the Reds had the makings of a formidable collection of young bats.
Fast forward a few years, and none of that has really panned out. As MLBTR's Anthony Franco explored last month, that group has turned over a fair bit. Marte now patrols the outfield more than the infield. India is in Kansas City, traded last winter in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. Candelario was released halfway through what has turned out to be a significant misstep of a signing. Encarnacion-Strand has been beset by injury. Steer has bounced all around the diamond, including in the outfield, but he's settled in more at first base. De La Cruz is entrenched at shortstop. McLain, who's struggled in the wake of 2024 shoulder surgery, remains an ongoing question mark. Top prospect Sal Stewart was recently promoted to the majors for his first look, giving them yet another high-upside infield piece to consider.
Even with that prior glut of infielders, the Reds felt compelled to trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes at this year's deadline and infielder/outfielder Gavin Lux last offseason. The overall offense in Cincinnati has been tepid, at best. The Reds, despite playing in perhaps the most homer-friendly park in the sport, rank 23rd in MLB with 146 home runs. They're 13th in runs scored, 16th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. The offense is ... fine. It's not a glaring deficiency, but it's also not going to turn any heads.
On the other side of the game, however, the Reds have enjoyed a more significant boom. Cincinnati's pitching staff is virtually teeming with enticing young options. Even with Nick Martinez and deadline pickup Zack Littell slated to become free agents, the Reds are deep in rotation arms. The aforementioned Singer is the priciest of the bunch heading into 2026, as he'll be due a raise on his $8.75MM salary, presumably pushing him past $12MM. The rest of the group is generally affordable, if not making at or very near the league minimum.
It's a fine line to walk, of course, as any "surplus" in baseball can dry out in a hurry, but this version of the Reds seems well positioned to flip some of that pitching talent in exchange for some offensive firepower when the offseason rolls around.
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